Productivity gradients cause positive diversity–invasibility relationships in microbial communities

Models predict that community invasibility generally declines with species diversity, a prediction confirmed by small‐scale experiments. Large‐scale observations and experiments, however, find that diverse communities tend to be more heavily invaded than simple communities. One hypothesis states that large‐scale environmental heterogeneity, which similarly influences native and invasive species, can cause a positive correlation between diversity and invasibility, overriding the local negative effects of diversity on invasibility. We tested this hypothesis using aquatic microbial communities consisting of protists and rotifers consuming bacteria and nanoflagellates. We constructed a productivity gradient to simulate large‐scale environmental heterogeneity, started communities with the same number of species along this gradient, and subjected equilibrial communities to invasion by non‐resident consumer species. Both invaders and most resident species increased their abundances with resource enrichment, resulting in a positive correlation between diversity and invasibility. Intraspecific interference competition within resident species and the positive effect of enrichment on the number of available resources probably accounted for the higher invasibility with enrichment. Our results provide direct experimental evidence that environmental heterogeneity in productivity can cause a positive diversity–invasibility relationship.     

Multi-objective environment chamber system for studying plant responses to climate change

This paper describes the technical information and performance of a new multi-objective chamber system enabling the control of environmental variables (e.g., temperature, CO₂, air humidity, wind speed, and UV-B radiation) for understanding plant responses to climate change. Over a whole growing season, four different climate scenarios were evenly programmed into the system’s 16 chambers as ambient environment (AMB), elevated temperature (ET), elevated CO₂ concentration (EC) and elevated temperature and CO₂ concentration (ETC). Simultaneously, the chamber effects were assessed regarding the physiological responses and growth of a boreal perennial grass (reed canary grass, Phalaris arundinacea L.). During the growing season, the chamber system provided a wide variety of climatic conditions for air temperature (T _a), relative humidity (RH) and CO₂ concentration (C _a) in the AMB chambers following outside conditions. The target temperature (+3.5°C) was achieved to a good degree in the ET and ETC chambers, being on average 3.3°C and 3.7°C higher than ambient conditions, respectively. The target concentration of CO₂ (700 ppm) was also well achieved in the EC and ETC chambers, being on average 704 ppm and 703 ppm, respectively. The stable airflow condition inside all of the chambers provided a homogeneous distribution of gases and temperature. The decreases in RH and increases in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in the elevated temperature chambers were also maintained at a low level. Chamber effects were observed, with some physiological and growth parameters of plants being significantly lower in the AMB chambers, compared to outside conditions. The plant growth was negatively affected by the reduced radiation inside the chambers.     

Reconsidering diversity–productivity relationships: directness of productivity estimates matters

Despite extensive research efforts, the controversy over diversity–productivity (D–P) patterns in natural communities still looms large. Recent meta‐analyses suggest that unimodal D–P relationships tend to pre‐dominate in plant studies, while positively linear relationships are more common in animal studies. These patterns, however, are based on studies in which productivity is estimated either directly, based on the biomass or energy of the studied organisms, or indirectly, according to the productivity of lower trophic levels, and various surrogates. Our analysis shows that the distribution of D–P patterns is sensitive to the directness of productivity estimates in animal studies but not in plant studies. Analysis of D–P patterns should be based on direct productivity estimates of the studied organisms, especially in comparative meta‐analyses of communities from multiple trophic levels, where productivity is often affected nonlinearly by indirect factors or when complex feedback interactions are expected between productivity and diversity.     

Species diversity and endemism of five major Malesian islands: diversity–area relationships

Aim A comparison of biodiversity patterns within Malesia in relation to surface area. Location Analysis of the patterns in species richness and endemism of vascular plants in the five major Malesian islands, i.e. Java, Sulawesi, Sumatra, Borneo and New Guinea. Methods Available data on species richness and species ranges in correlation with the surface area of the respective islands were examined in this work. Estimations of total species numbers for these islands are presented based on extrapolation of all available published Flora Malesiana information and recent checklists, all in all comprising 12,000 different species. The regression analysis of overall species richness and endemism were studied for all species together as well as for different plant families to compare the fit with the Arrhenius species–area model. Results The five islands form a series of independent areas of increasing size suited for an analysis of the species–area relationships at the regional scale. All species taken together and those of families with even distribution throughout Malesia show significant species–area relationships. Non‐significant relationships were detected in families with western or eastern‐centred Malesian distribution patterns. Relationships between number of endemic species and surface area are significant for all species and for the majority of the families with significant species–area relationships. Main conclusions Species–area relationships of families appear to be dependent on species number. Families with high numbers of species usually have a significant species–area relationship whereas small families have not. For the families that display an eastern or western Malesian centred pattern, a historical biogeographical explanation should be invoked. Island surface area appears to be a predictor for island percent endemism in Malesian vascular plants. None of the islands appears to be a hotspot of endemism nor of species diversity, as no significant departure from the Arrhenius model was noted for any of them.     

Altered geographic and temporal variability in phenology in response to climate change

Aim In response to recent climate warming, numerous studies have reported an earlier onset of spring and, to a lesser degree, a later onset of autumn, both determined from phenological observations. Here, we examine whether these reported changes have affected the synchronization of events on a regional level by examining temporal and spatial variability in phenology. In particular, we study whether years with earlier springs are associated with an altered spatial variability in phenology. Location Germany and the United Kingdom. Methods Plant phenological observations of 35 different phases (events such as flowering and leafing) collected by the German Weather Service (1951–2002) and butterfly phenological records of 29 species collected by the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (1976–2003) are used. In these long‐term records, we examine the temporal (year‐to‐year) variability and the spatial (geographic or between site) variability with particular emphasis on how they vary with time of the year and with earliness or lateness of the phase. Results Early phenological events (i.e. spring) are more variable than later events, both in time and in space, although the pattern is clearer for plants than for butterflies. Confirming previous results, we find a clear relationship between the mean date of spring and summer phases and the degree to which they have become earlier. The spatial variability of spring events is greater in warmer years that have faster plant development. However, late spring and summer events do not show a consistent relationship. Autumn events are somewhat more spatially variable in years characterized by later seasons. Main conclusions This is the first examination of spatial variability of plant and animal phenological events at a multinational scale. Earlier spring events are likely to be associated with increased spatial variability in plants, although this is unlikely to also be true for summer events. If species experience differential changes in geographic variation this may disrupt interactions among them, e.g. in food webs. On the other hand, these may offer advantages for mobile species. Further research on linked species is recommended.     

Species–environment relationships of fish and map‐based variables in small boreal streams: Linkages with climate change and bioassessment

Species–environment relationships were studied between the occurrence of 13 fish and lamprey species and 9 mainly map‐based environmental variables of Finnish boreal small streams. A self‐organizing map (SOM) analysis showed strong relationships between the fish species and environmental variables in a single model (explained variance 55.9%). Besides basic environmental variables such as altitude, catchment size, and mean temperature, land cover variables were also explored. A logistic regression analysis indicated that the occurrence probability of brown trout, Salmo trutta L., decreased with an increasing percentage of peatland ditch drainage in the upper catchment. Ninespine stickleback, Pungitius pungitius (L.), and three‐spined stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus L., seemed to benefit from urban areas in the upper catchment. Discovered relationships between fish species occurrence and land‐use attributes are encouraging for the development of fish‐based bioassessment for small streams. The presented ordination of the fish species in the mean temperature gradient will help in predicting fish community responses to climate change.     

Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of medicinal plant Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don

Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don is a renowned traditional Chinese medicine plant that is mainly distributed in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The overexploitation in the recent years has led to a sharp decline of this undomesticated resource. Analyzing the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of F. cirrhosa is meaningful for its conservation and domestication. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) was used to simulate the distribution of F. cirrhosa in relation to the current and future climatic conditions. The maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio 5) and the precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio 18) were the two most important bioclimatic variables determining the distribution of F. cirrhosa. Based on the predicted level of climatic warming, a further reduction of the geographic distribution of F. cirrhosa is to be expected. This study demonstrated the necessity and urgency of establishing more effective ways to protect the natural F. cirrhosa resources and developing artificial cultivation methodology.     

Bivalve aquaculture‐environment interactions in the context of climate change

Coastal embayments are at risk of impacts by climate change drivers such as ocean warming, sea level rise and alteration in precipitation regimes. The response of the ecosystem to these drivers is highly dependent on their magnitude of change, but also on physical characteristics such as bay morphology and river discharge, which play key roles in water residence time and hence estuarine functioning. These considerations are especially relevant for bivalve aquaculture sites, where the cultured biomass can alter ecosystem dynamics. The combination of climate change, physical and aquaculture drivers can result in synergistic/antagonistic and nonlinear processes. A spatially explicit model was constructed to explore effects of the physical environment (bay geomorphic type, freshwater inputs), climate change drivers (sea level, temperature, precipitation) and aquaculture (bivalve species, stock) on ecosystem functioning. A factorial design led to 336 scenarios (48 hydrodynamic × 7 management). Model outcomes suggest that the physical environment controls estuarine functioning given its influence on primary productivity (bottom‐up control dominated by riverine nutrients) and horizontal advection with the open ocean (dominated by bay geomorphic type). The intensity of bivalve aquaculture ultimately determines the bivalve–phytoplankton trophic interaction, which can range from a bottom‐up control triggered by ammonia excretion to a top‐down control via feeding. Results also suggest that temperature is the strongest climate change driver due to its influence on the metabolism of poikilothermic organisms (e.g. zooplankton and bivalves), which ultimately causes a concomitant increase of top‐down pressure on phytoplankton. Given the different thermal tolerance of cultured species, temperature is also critical to sort winners from losers, benefiting Crassostrea virginica over Mytilus edulis under the specific conditions tested in this numerical exercise. In general, it is predicted that bays with large rivers and high exchange with the open ocean will be more resilient under climate change when bivalve aquaculture is present.     

Soil heterogeneity buffers community response to climate change in species‐rich grassland

Climate change impacts on vegetation are mediated by soil processes that regulate rhizosphere water balance, nutrient dynamics, and ground‐level temperatures. For ecosystems characterized by high fine‐scale substrate heterogeneity such as grasslands on poorly developed soils, effects of climate change on plant communities may depend on substrate properties that vary at the scale of individuals (<m²), leading to fine‐scale shifts in community structure that may go undetected at larger scales. Here, we show in a long‐running climate experiment in species‐rich limestone grassland in Buxton, England (UK), that the resistance of the community to 15‐year manipulations of temperature and rainfall at the plot scale (9 m²) belies considerable community reorganization at the microsite (100 cm²) scale. In individual models of the abundance of the 25 most common species with respect to climate treatment and microsite soil depth, 13 species exhibited significant soil depth affinities, and nine of these have shifted their position along the depth gradient in response to one or more climate treatments. Estimates of species turnover across the depth gradient reviewed in relation to measurements of water potential, nitrogen supply, pH, and community biomass suggest that communities of shallow microsites are responding directly to microenvironmental changes induced by climate manipulation, while those of the deepest microsites are shifting in response to changes in competitive interference from more nutrient‐demanding species. Moreover, for several species in summer drought and winter heated treatments, climate response in deep microsites was opposite that of shallow microsites, suggesting microsite variation is contributing to community stability at the whole‐plot level. Our study thus demonstrates a strong link between community dynamics and substrate properties, and suggests ecosystems typified by fine‐scale substrate heterogeneity may possess a natural buffering capacity in the face of climate change.     

Effects of contemporary environment and Quaternary climate change on drylands plant diversity differ between growth forms

Previous studies on large‐scale patterns in plant richness and underlying mechanisms have mostly focused on forests and mountains, while drylands covering most of the world's grasslands and deserts are more poorly investigated for lack of data. Here, we aim to 1) evaluate the plant richness patterns in Inner Asian drylands; 2) compare the relative importance of contemporary environment, historical climate, vegetation changes, and mid‐domain effect (MDE); and 3) explore whether the dominant drivers of species richness differ across growth forms (woody vs herbaceous) and range sizes (common vs rare). Distribution data and growth forms of 13 248 seed plants were compiled from literature and species range sizes were estimated. Generalized linear models and hierarchical partitioning were used to evaluate the relative contribution of different factors. We found that habitat heterogeneity strongly affected both woody and herbaceous species. Precipitation, climate change since the mid‐Holocene and climate seasonality dominated herbaceous richness patterns, while climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum dominated woody richness patterns. Rare species richness was strongly correlated with precipitation, habitat heterogeneity and historical climatic changes, while common species richness was strongly correlated with MDE (woody) or climate seasonality (herbaceous). Temperature had little effects on the species richness patterns of all groups. This study represents the first evaluation of the large‐scale patterns of plant species richness in the Inner Asian drylands. Our results suggest that increasing water deficit due to anthropogenic activities combined with future global warming may increase the extinction risk of many grassland species. Rare species (both herbaceous and woody) may face severe challenges in the future due to increased habitat destruction caused by urbanization and resource exploitation. Overall, our findings indicate that the hypotheses on species richness patterns based on woody plants alone can be insufficient to explain the richness patterns of herbaceous species.     

气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制

气候变化与生物多样性丧失是人类社会正在经历的两大变化。气候变化影响生物多样性的方方面面, 是导致生物多样性丧失的一个主要驱动因子; 反过来, 生物多样性丧失会加剧气候变化。因此, 阻止甚至扭转气候变化和生物多样性丧失是当前人类社会亟需解决的全球性问题,但我们对气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制尚缺乏清晰认识。本文总结了近年气候变化与生物多样性变化的研究进展, 重点概述了不同组织层次、空间尺度和维度的生物多样性对气候变化的响应和反馈等相关领域的研究进展和存在的主要问题。结果发现多数研究关注气候变化对生物多样性的直接影响, 涉及到生物多样性的不同组织层次、维度和营养级, 但针对气候变化间接影响的研究仍然较少, 机理研究同样需要加强; 生物多样性对生态系统功能影响的环境依赖和尺度推演、生物多样性对生态系统多功能性的作用机理和量化方法是当前研究面临的挑战; 生物多样性对生态系统响应气候变化的作用机制尚无统一的认识; 生物多样性对气候变化的正、负反馈效应是国内外研究的盲点。最后, 本文展望了未来发展方向和需要解决的关键科学问题, 包括多因子气候变化对生物多样性的影响; 减缓和适应气候变化的措施如何惠益于生物多样性保护; 生物多样性与生态系统功能的理论如何应用到现实世界; 生物多样性保护对实现碳中和目标的贡献。     

Effect of historical land‐use and climate change on tree‐climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree‐climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree‐climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land‐use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land‐use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land‐use interactions are compounding, in which historical land‐use reinforces shifts in species‐climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land‐use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary‐based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.     

Long-term persistence of a positive plant diversity–productivity relationship in the absence of legumes

Most studies investigating the relationship between plant diversity and ecosystem functioning lasted only a few years. These studies generally showed a positive relationship between diversity and productivity that strengthened with time. This pattern suggests the experimental communities have not yet reached maturity, which raises the question whether a positive relationship between diversity and productivity will remain if communities approach equilibrium conditions. Here, we analyze eight years of data from a plant diversity experiment without legumes. A positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity arose in the second year and increased until the fifth year. This relationship persisted throughout the remainder of the experiment, but the slope of the relationship remained constant at approximately 50  g/m²/log₂[richness]. The positive relationship between diversity and productivity was caused by strong complementarity effects, which initially increased but remained constant after the fourth year of the experiment. Our results show a positive relationship between diversity and productivity is a long-term phenomenon, driven by complementary interactions.     

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change in an Afromontane centre of endemism

Broad‐scale assessments of how climate change might impact mountain ecosystems, especially in areas of high biodiversity and endemism, are compromised by the lack of localised climate feedback in global circulation models. Here, we use regionally downscaled climate models to highlight how spatial variation in forecast change could impact rare plant distributions differentially across the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and Kenya, part of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot. Concordant with the theory that climatic stability facilitates the accumulation of rare species, we find significant positive correlations between endemic plant richness and future climatic persistence within the dispersal‐limiting sky islands of this mountain archipelago. Further, we explore the hypothesis that mountain plants will move upslope in response to climate change and find that, conversely, some species are predicted to tend downslope, despite warmer annual conditions, driven by changes in seasonality and water availability. Importantly, two thirds of the modelled plant species are predicted to respond in different directions in different parts of their ranges, exemplifying the potential for individualistic responses of species and disjunct populations to environmental change, and the need for regional focus in climate change impact assessment. Conservation planners, and more broadly those charged with developing climate adaption policy, are advised to take caution in inferring local patterns of change from zoomed perspectives of broad‐scale models. Moreover, a preoccupation with mean annual temperature as the principal driver of ecosystem change is misguided and could compromise efforts to make conservation plans resilient to future climate change. Faced with spatially complex and inherently uncertain future conditions, sensible priorities are to restore forest connectivity and to underpin adaption strategies with knowledge of how ecosystems and people have adapted to previous episodes of rapid change.     

气候变化对桂林植物物候的影响

利用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,对桂林气候(1951～2009年)和3种植物物候(1983～2009年)的趋势变化特征进行了分析,并探讨了物候期与气温、日照、降水等气象因子的相关性及其对主要气候影响因子的响应情况。结果表明:在当地气候变化背景下,桂林市植物物候期发生了不同程度的变化,春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推迟,绿叶期延长;平均气温是影响植物物候期最为显著的气象因子,气温每增高1℃,春季物候平均提前5d左右,秋季物候平均推迟8d左右,绿叶期延长约27d;春季物候和绿叶期的突变一般发生在气温突变之后,但秋季物候期突变与其影响月份气温的突变并无关系。以上分析说明植物物候对气候变化响应比较敏感,通过分析气候和植物物候变化的规律,掌握气候对当地植物物候的可能影响,可为农业生产、生态环境监测和评估等提供理论依据。     

Evidence of non‐stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: Increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests

Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non‐stationary (i.e. non‐time stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and above‐ground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and above‐ground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non‐stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Above‐ground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.     

Investigating habitat-specific plant species pools under climate change

We used 474 European plant species to analyse the impacts of climate and land-use change on the composition of habitat-specific species pools in Germany. We quantified changes in the probability of occurrence of species in a grid cell using an ensemble of three statistical modelling techniques, namely generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs) and random forests (RFs), under three scenarios (average change +2.2, +2.9, and +3.8 °C up to 2080). We evaluated the impact on single species occurrence and resulting species pools considering their affiliation to ten major terrestrial habitat types in both current (1961–90) and future projections (2051–80). Current habitat-specific species pools declined in size across all scenarios, e.g. by 24 ± 13% (mean ± s.d.) under the most severe scenario. We show that species responses may strongly vary among scenarios and different habitats with a minimum average projected range loss of 14% (±18%; species typical to urban habitats under moderate climate change assumptions, average temperature increase +2.2 °C) to a maximum average projected range loss of 56% (±29%; species assemblages from mountain communities below the alpine zone at +3.8 °C). A separate analysis of species composition in habitat-specific species pools revealed a significant interaction between the scenario and the major habitat classes. We found a higher risk for habitat types with high conservation value characterised by a significant association between number of nationally endangered species and projected range loss in major habitats. Thus, habitat-specific management and application of measures favouring dispersal are required for mitigation of climate change impacts.     

Estimating plant responses to climate by direct gradient analysis and geographic distribution analysis

We characterised the climatic behaviour of 53 woody species in terms of the climatic factors that play the main role in controlling species distribution in the study area. Floristic and climatic data were obtained from 150 stands in sites under climatic control (i.e. eu-climatopes). The sampling strategy used allowed a reliable match between floristic and climatic observations. Different methods of frequency analysis and goodness-of-fit tests were used to identify associations between species occurrence and climatic characteristics. The species' responses were summarised by statistics describing ecological preferences and amplitudes, and species were grouped accordingly. A Gaussian response model was fitted to the abundance data along the main climatic gradients for selected species and response surfaces were derived by spatial analysis for a set of indicator species. Frequency analysis methods detected 42 indicator taxa for the Baudiere's Qe drought index, and lower numbers, 34 and 22, respectively, for the mean minimum coldest-month temperature and the daily temperature range in the coldest month. Goodness-of-fit tests revealed a lower number of ecological profiles with statistically significant deviations from equidistribution. We discuss the relative performance of the different methods and suggest that the combined use of statistical tests and frequency analyses may improve estimation of the environmental requirements of species. We also recommend using the species' responses to key environmental factors as reliable criteria in the definition of plant functional types. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.