The effect of the taxon and geographic range size of host eucalypt species on the species richness of gall-forming insects

Abstract This field study was designed to test whether the taxonomic group and geographic range size of a host plant species, usually found to influence insect species richness in other parts of the world, affected the number of gall species on Australian eucalypts. We assessed the local and regional species richness of gall-forming insects on five pairs of closely related eucalypt species. One pair belonged to the subgenus Corymbia, one to Monocalyptus, and three to different sections of Symphyomyrtus. Each eucalypt pair comprised a large and a small geographic range species. Species pairs were from coastal or inland regions of eastern Australia. The total number of gall species on eucalypt species with large geographic ranges was greater than on eucalypt species with small ranges, but only after the strong effect of eucalypt taxonomic grouping was taken into account. There was no relationship between the geographic range size of eucalypt species and the size of local assemblages of gall species, but the variation in insect species composition between local sites was higher on eucalypt species with large ranges than on those with small ranges. Thus the effect of host plant range size on insect species richness was due to greater differentiation between more widespread locations, rather than to greater local species richness. This study confirms the role of the geographic range size of a host plant in the determination of insect species richness and provides evidence for the importance of the taxon of a host plant.     

A comparison of methods for mapping species ranges and species richness

Aim  Maps of species richness are the basis for applied research and conservation planning as well as for theoretical research investigating patterns of richness and the processes shaping these patterns. The method used to create a richness map could influence the results of such studies, but differences between these methods have been insufficiently evaluated. We investigate how different methods of mapping species ranges can influence patterns of richness, at three spatial resolutions.
Location  California, USA.
Methods  We created richness maps by overlaying individual species range maps for terrestrial amphibians and reptiles. The methods we used to create ranges included: point-to-grid maps, obtained by overlaying point observations of species occurrences with a grid and determining presence or absence for each cell; expert-drawn maps; and maps obtained through species distribution modelling. We also used a hybrid method that incorporated data from all three methods. We assessed the correlation and similarity of the spatial patterns of richness maps created with each of these four methods at three different resolutions.
Results  Richness maps created with different methods were more correlated at lower spatial resolutions than at higher resolutions. At all resolutions, point-to-grid richness maps estimated the lowest species richness and those derived from species distribution models the highest. Expert-drawn maps and hybrid maps showed intermediate levels of richness but had different spatial patterns of species richness from those derived with the other methods.
Main conclusions  Even in relatively well-studied areas such as California, different data sources can lead to rather dissimilar maps of species richness. Evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of different methods for creating a richness map can provide guidance for selecting the approach that is most appropriate for a given application and region.     

Postglacial northward expansion and genetic differentiation between migratory and sedentary populations of the broad‐tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus)

Unlike other migratory hummingbirds in North America, the broad‐tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus) exhibits both long‐distance migratory behaviour in the USA and sedentary behaviour in Mexico and Guatemala. We examined the evolution of migration linked to its northward expansion using a multiperspective approach. We analysed variation in morphology, mitochondrial and nuclear DNA, estimated migration rates between migratory and sedentary populations, compared divergence times with the occurrence of Quaternary climate events and constructed species distribution models to predict where migratory and sedentary populations resided during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) events. Our results are consistent with a recent northward population expansion driven by migration from southern sedentary populations. Phylogeographical analyses and population genetics methods revealed that migratory populations in the USA and sedentary populations in Mexico of the platycercus subspecies form one admixed population, and that sedentary populations from southern Mexico and Guatemala (guatemalae) undertook independent evolutionary trajectories. Species distribution modelling revealed that the species is a niche tracker and that the climate conditions associated with modern obligate migrants in the USA were not present during the LIG, which provides indirect evidence for recent migratory behaviour in broad‐tailed hummingbirds on the temporal scale of glacial cycles. The finding that platycercus hummingbirds form one genetic population and that suitable habitat for migratory populations was observed in eastern Mexico during the LIG also suggests that the conservation of overwintering sites is crucial for obligate migratory populations currently facing climate change effects.     

Global patterns of species richness of the holarctic alpine herb Saxifraga: the role of temperature and habitat heterogeneity

北半球高山和极地虎耳草属物种丰富度的地理格局：温度和生境异质性的作用 现代气候、生境异质性和长期气候变化对森林生态系统中分布的木本植物的物种丰富度格局的影响在以往研究中受到广泛关注,但对高寒-极地生态系统中的草本植物物种丰富度格局及其影响因素的研究仍较少。本研究旨在检验以往研究中基于物种丰富度和环境因子关系提出的假说是否能够解释高寒-极地地区典型草本植物-虎耳草属(Saxifraga)的物种丰富度格局。本研究利用全球437种虎耳草属物种分布数据,探讨了全部物种、广域和狭域物种丰富度格局的影响因素。采用广义线性模型和空间自回归模型,评估了现代气候、生境异质性和历史气候对虎耳草属物种丰富度格局的影响。采用偏回归分析了不同变量对物种丰富度的独立解释率和共同解释率,并检验了4种广泛使用的物种丰富度与环境关系模型对物种丰富度格局的解释能力。研究结果表明,温度与虎耳草属所有物种和广域物种的物种丰富度格局呈显著负相关关系,是影响物种丰富度格局最重要的环境因子,这可能反映了虎耳草属对其祖先温带生态位的保守性。生境异质性和末次冰期以来的气候变化是虎耳草属狭域物种丰富度空间变异的最佳预测因子。总体而言,包含5个预测变量的组合模型可以解释大约40%–50%的虎耳草属物种丰富度的空间变异。此外,进化和生物地理过程在虎耳草属物种丰富度格局形成方面可能发挥了重要作用,这有待进一步研究。     

Ice age distributions of European small mammals: insights from species distribution modelling

Aim In addition to the traditionally recognized Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka) refuge areas in the Mediterranean region, more northerly LGM distributions for temperate and boreal taxa in central and eastern Europe are increasingly being discussed based on palaeoecological and phylogeographical evidence. Our aim was to investigate the potential refuge locations using species distribution modelling to estimate the geographical distribution of suitable climatic conditions for selected rodent species during the LGM. Location Eurasia. Methods Presence/absence data for seven rodent species with range limits corresponding to the limits of temperate or boreal forest or arctic tundra were used in the analysis. We developed predictive distribution models based on the species present‐day European distributions and validated these against their present‐day Siberian ranges. The models with the best predictors of the species distributions across Siberia were projected onto LGM climate simulations to assess the distribution of climatically suitable areas. Results The best distribution models provided good predictions of the present‐day Siberian ranges of the study species. Their LGM projections showed that areas with a suitable LGM climate for the three temperate species (Apodemus flavicollis, Apodemus sylvaticus and Microtus arvalis) were largely restricted to the traditionally recognized southern refuge areas, i.e. mainly in the Mediterranean region, but also southernmost France and southern parts of the Russian Plain. In contrast, suitable climatic conditions for the two boreal species (Clethrionomys glareous and Microtus agrestis) were predicted as far north as southern England and across southern parts of central and eastern Europe eastwards into the Russian Plain. For the two arctic species (Lemmus lemmus and Microtus oeconomus), suitable climate was predicted from the Atlantic coast eastward across central Europe and into Russia. Main conclusions Our results support the idea of more northerly refuge areas in Europe, indicating that boreal species would have found suitable living conditions over much of southern central and eastern Europe and the Russian Plain. Temperate species would have primarily found suitable conditions in the traditional southern refuge areas, but interestingly also in much of the southern Russian Plain.     

Ecological niche modelling of montane mammals in the Great Basin, North America: examining past and present connectivity of species across basins and ranges

Aim The goal of this study was to determine the extent of suitable habitats across the basins and ranges of the Great Basin for 13 montane mammals in the present and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For all these mammal species, we test whether: (1) more suitable habitat was available in basin areas during the LGM; (2) suitable habitat shifted upwards in elevation between the LGM and the present; (3) more ranges have suitable habitat than are currently occupied; and (4) these species are currently restricted to suitable habitats at higher‐elevation range areas. We also examine whether and how much distributional response varies among these montane mammal species. Location The Great Basin of western North America. Methods We re‐examine the past and present distributions of 13 Great Basin montane mammals using ecological niche modelling techniques that utilize now widely available species occurrence data and new, fine‐scale past climatological GIS layers in the present and at the LGM. These methods provide an objective, repeatable means for visual comparison of past and present modelled distributions for species examined in previous biogeographical studies. Results Our results indicate greater areal and lower elevational suitable habitat in the LGM than at present for nearly all montane mammals, and that there is more suitable habitat at present than is currently occupied. Our results also show that lowland areas provide suitable dispersal routes between ranges for most of the montane mammals both at the LGM and at present. However, three of the 13 species have little to no predicted suitable habitat in the LGM near currently occupied ranges, in contrast to the pattern for the other 10. For these species, the model results support more recent long‐distance colonization. Main conclusions Our finding of suitable lowland dispersal routes in the present for most species supports and greatly extends similar findings from single‐species studies. Our results also provide a visually striking confirmation that changes in species distribution and colonization histories of Great Basin montane mammals vary in a fashion related to the tolerances and requirements of each of these species; this has previously been hypothesized but not rigorously tested for multiple montane mammals in the region.     

Toward ecologically realistic predictions of species distributions: A cross‐time example from tropical montane cloud forests

There is an urgent need for more ecologically realistic models for better predicting the effects of climate change on species’ potential geographic distributions. Here we build ecological niche models using MAXENT and test whether selecting predictor variables based on biological knowledge and selecting ecologically realistic response curves can improve cross‐time distributional predictions. We also evaluate how the method chosen for extrapolation into nonanalog conditions affects the prediction. We do so by estimating the potential distribution of a montane shrew (Mammalia, Soricidae, Cryptotis mexicanus) at present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Because it is tightly associated with cloud forests (with climatically determined upper and lower limits) whose distributional shifts are well characterized, this species provides clear expectations of plausible vs. implausible results. Response curves for the MAXENT model made using variables selected via biological justification were ecologically more realistic compared with those of the model made using many potential predictors. This strategy also led to much more plausible geographic predictions for upper and lower elevational limits of the species both for the present and during the LGM. By inspecting the modeled response curves, we also determined the most appropriate way to extrapolate into nonanalog environments, a previously overlooked factor in studies involving model transfer. This study provides intuitive context for recommendations that should promote more realistic ecological niche models for transfer across space and time.     

The performance of range maps and species distribution models representing the geographic variation of species richness at different resolutions

Aim The method used to generate hypotheses about species distributions, in addition to spatial scale, may affect the biodiversity patterns that are then observed. We compared the performance of range maps and MaxEnt species distribution models at different spatial resolutions by examining the degree of similarity between predicted species richness and composition against observed values from well‐surveyed cells (WSCs). Location Mexico. Methods We estimated amphibian richness distributions at five spatial resolutions (from 0.083° to 2°) by overlaying 370 individual range maps or MaxEnt predictions, comparing the similarity of the spatial patterns and correlating predicted values with the observed values for WSCs. Additionally, we looked at species composition and assessed commission and omission errors associated with each method. Results MaxEnt predictions reveal greater geographic differences in richness between species rich and species poor regions than the range maps did at the five resolutions assessed. Correlations between species richness values estimated by either of the two procedures and the observed values from the WSCs increased with decreasing resolution. The slopes of the regressions between the predicted and observed values indicate that MaxEnt overpredicts observed species richness at all of the resolutions used, while range maps underpredict them, except at the finest resolution. Prediction errors did not vary significantly between methods at any resolution and tended to decrease with decreasing resolution. The accuracy of both procedures was clearly different when commission and omission errors were examined separately. Main conclusions Despite the congruent increase in the geographic richness patterns obtained from both procedures as resolution decreases, the maps created with these methods cannot be used interchangeably because of notable differences in the species compositions they report.     

Geographical zonation in the Neotropics of tree species characteristic of the Paraguay-Paraná Basin

Aim This paper uses data from the literature (monographs and taxonomic reviews) to investigate the geographical zonation in South America of 32 common tree species encountered in Paraguay. The actual spatial distribution of the species is then used to provide clues on the plant communities present in the past, and especially during the Wisconsinan age (Last major ice age: 80,000–10,000 bp ). The floristic relatedness between the Paraguayan flora and the neighbouring floras is also investigated. Methods The main vegetation patterns were highlighted using a Discriminant Analysis of the Eigenvectors of Neighbourhood Operator to emphasize the geographical zonation in South America of 32 tree species predominant in the Paraguay‐Paraná Basin. Results Three main vegetation patterns were emphasized: the Chaco, the Paraná‐São Francisco gradient and the Peri‐Amazonian gradient. The Chaco is well defined. The Peri‐Amazonian gradient is characterized by a continuous change in species from the Colombian pole towards the São Francisco pole. The São Francisco gradient shows a continuous change from the São Francisco pole towards the Paraná pole. Some of the species are monocentric (related to only one dispersal centre), whereas others are polycentric (distributed in several poles). Main conclusions The Chaquean xeromorphic forests are considered as a climax, with a stable composition resulting of the saline soil conditions. The Chaco acts as an edaphic barrier to many species, although the migration of some non‐Chaquean species is made possible by the net of gallery‐forests and low montane forests between the Río Paraguay and the Andean Piedmont. The Cerrado and the Chaco can be considered as a barrier limiting the expansion of the Paranean forest. This latter formation is a semi‐deciduous forest made of a mix of monocentric and polycentric elements. The numerous species found both in Colombia and in Paraná indicate that bridges exist, or have existed, between these two poles. The persistence in the Paraguay‐Paraná Basin of a moist forest made of the Paranean assemblages highlighted in this study confirms the hypothesis of moister and cooler phases than today.     

Combining ecological niche modelling and morphology to assess the range‐wide population genetic structure of bobcats (Lynx rufus)

Despite a broad distribution, general habitat requirements, and a large dispersal potential, bobcats (Lynx rufus) exhibit a genetic division that longitudinally transects central North America. We investigated (1) whether the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 kya) isolated bobcats into refugia and also whether the current climate influences gene flow between the segregate populations and (2) whether the geographical patterns in cranial morphology reflect population identity. We created ecological niche models (ENMs) to evaluate climatic suitability and to estimate distributions of the disparate populations under both historical (LGM) and contemporary conditions. We used two‐dimensional geometric morphometric methods to evaluate variations in the cranium and mandible. These variations were then regressed across geographical variables to assess morphological differences throughout the range of the bobcat. ENMs projected onto LGM climate provided evidence of refugia during the LGM via increased suitability in the north‐west and south‐east portions of this species' range. Contemporarily, our models suggest that the Great Plains may be restricting bobcat migration and gene flow, effectively maintaining disparate populations. Morphological analyses identified a significant linear trend in shape variation across latitudinal and longitudinal gradients rather than distinct morphological divergence between lineages. Similar shape variations, however, did converge in approximate locations of assumed refugia. The findings of the present study provide a robust assessment of the biogeographical considerations for the population genetic structure of bobcats.     

Type and spatial structure of distribution data and the perceived determinants of geographical gradients in ecology: the species richness of African birds

Aim Studies exploring the determinants of geographical gradients in the occurrence of species or their traits obtain data by: (1) overlaying species range maps; (2) mapping survey‐based species counts; or (3) superimposing models of individual species’ distributions. These data types have different spatial characteristics. We investigated whether these differences influence conclusions regarding postulated determinants of species richness patterns. Location Our study examined terrestrial bird diversity patterns in 13 nations of southern and eastern Africa, spanning temperate to tropical climates. Methods Four species richness maps were compiled based on range maps, field‐derived bird atlas data, logistic and autologistic distribution models. Ordinary and spatial regression models served to examine how well each of five hypotheses predicted patterns in each map. These hypotheses propose productivity, temperature, the heat–water balance, habitat heterogeneity and climatic stability as the predominant determinants of species richness. Results The four richness maps portrayed broadly similar geographical patterns but, due to the nature of underlying data types, exhibited marked differences in spatial autocorrelation structure. These differences in spatial structure emerged as important in determining which hypothesis appeared most capable of explaining each map's patterns. This was true even when regressions accounted for spurious effects of spatial autocorrelation. Each richness map, therefore, identified a different hypothesis as the most likely cause of broad‐scale gradients in species diversity. Main conclusions Because the ‘true’ spatial structure of species richness patterns remains elusive, firm conclusions regarding their underlying environmental drivers remain difficult. More broadly, our findings suggest that care should be taken to interpret putative determinants of large‐scale ecological gradients in light of the type and spatial characteristics of the underlying data. Indeed, closer scrutiny of these underlying data — here the distributions of individual species — and their environmental associations may offer important insights into the ultimate causes of observed broad‐scale patterns.     

The fate of European breeding birds under climate,land‐use and dispersal scenarios

Many species have already shifted their distributions in response to recent climate change. Here, we aimed at predicting the future breeding distributions of European birds under climate, land‐use, and dispersal scenarios. We predicted current and future distributions of 409 species within an ensemble forecast framework using seven species distribution models (SDMs), five climate scenarios and three emission and land‐use scenarios. We then compared results from SDMs using climate‐only variables, habitat‐only variables or both climate and habitat variables. In order to account for a species’ dispersal abilities, we used natal dispersal estimates and developed a probabilistic method that produced a dispersal scenario intermediate between the null and full dispersal scenarios generally considered in such studies. We then compared results from all scenarios in terms of future predicted range changes, range shifts, and variations in species richness. Modeling accuracy was better with climate‐only variables than with habitat‐only variables, and better with both climate and habitat variables. Habitat models predicted smaller range shifts and smaller variations in range size and species richness than climate models. Using both climate and habitat variables, it was predicted that the range of 71% of the species would decrease by 2050, with a 335 km median shift. Predicted variations in species richness showed large decreases in the southern regions of Europe, as well as increases, mainly in Scandinavia and northern Russia. The partial dispersal scenario was significantly different from the full dispersal scenario for 25% of the species, resulting in the local reduction of the future predicted species richness of up to 10%. We concluded that the breeding range of most European birds will decrease in spite of dispersal abilities close to a full dispersal hypothesis, and that given the contrasted predictions obtained when modeling climate change only and land‐use change only, both scenarios must be taken into consideration.     

Woody plant encroachment reduces species richness of herb‐rich woodlands in southern Australia

Abstract Woody plants have been increasing in many woodland and savanna ecosystems owing to land use changes in recent decades. We examined the effects of encroachment by the indigenous shrub Leptospermum scoparium (Myrtaceae) on herb‐rich Eucalyptus camaldulensis woodlands in southern Australia. Species richness and compositional patterns were examined under the canopy of L. scoparium and in surrounding open areas to determine the species most susceptible to structural changes. Richness was significantly lower in areas of moderate to high L. scoparium cover (>15%), suggesting that a threshold shrub cover caused major change in this ecosystem. Shrubs were associated with a significant reduction in above‐ground biomass of the ground‐layer flora and a significant shift in community composition. The few species that were positively associated with high L. scoparium cover were also common in the woodland flora; no new species were recorded under the shrub canopy. Important environmental changes associated with L. scoparium cover were decreased light availability and increased litter cover, which were likely a consequence of encroachment. Leptospermum scoparium cover was also associated with greater surface soil moisture, which may be a consequence of increased shading under the shrub canopy or indicate favourable soil conditions for L. scoparium establishment. Reductions in species richness and abundance of the germinable seed bank were found in soil samples taken from under L. scoparium. With ongoing recruitment of L. scoparium and consequent increases in shrub cover, ground‐layer diversity in these species‐rich woodlands should continue to decline over time.