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1.
    
Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post-2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.  相似文献   

2.
    
Animal populations have undergone substantial declines in recent decades. These declines have occurred alongside rapid, human‐driven environmental change, including climate warming. An association between population declines and environmental change is well established, yet there has been relatively little analysis of the importance of the rates of climate warming and its interaction with conversion to anthropogenic land use in causing population declines. Here we present a global assessment of the impact of rapid climate warming and anthropogenic land use conversion on 987 populations of 481 species of terrestrial birds and mammals since 1950. We collated spatially referenced population trends of at least 5 years’ duration from the Living Planet database and used mixed effects models to assess the association of these trends with observed rates of climate warming, rates of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, and protected area coverage. We found that declines in population abundance for both birds and mammals are greater in areas where mean temperature has increased more rapidly, and that this effect is more pronounced for birds. However, we do not find a strong effect of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, or protected area coverage. Our results identify a link between rapid warming and population declines, thus supporting the notion that rapid climate warming is a global threat to biodiversity.  相似文献   

3.
Mountains, especially in the tropics, harbour a unique and large portion of the world''s biodiversity. Their geographical isolation, limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here, we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world''s 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD), species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD, the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics, Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness, the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species'' vertical distributions, dispersal and adaptive capacities.  相似文献   

4.
    
The Mediterranean Sea is recognized as a hotspot of marine biodiversity. Analysing its past biodiversity can help in understanding species' response to climate change. We built a species-level dataset of bivalve occurrences across the Zanclean–Calabrian interval, a time characterized by significant changes in climate, and by bivalve extinctions. The dataset includes more than 400 species distributed from the eastern to the western Mediterranean Sea. We measured changes in richness and turnover through time, for the entire dataset, and for different palaeoenvironments and combinations of tiering and feeding categories to test if specific environmental conditions and different lifestyles were correlated to species extinction or survival through time. We also compared niche breadth, geographical range size, and species abundance of extinct and extant species, to test which of these parameters potentially affected extinction risk. Our results confirm a loss of biodiversity between 3 Ma and the Early Pleistocene, although this loss was less intense and more gradual than previously estimated. We also found significant differences in niche breadth and geographical range size between extinct and extant species. Suspension feeders lost a higher proportion of species and suffered a higher reduction of geographical range compared to infaunal deposit feeders. Species loss was more protracted and higher on the shoreface than on the shelf, which is probably related to the reduction of shallow-water vegetated environments and to the disaggregation of heterozoan carbonate ramp habitats with cooling and sea-level drop at the onset of the northern hemisphere glaciation.  相似文献   

5.
    
Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900–1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.  相似文献   

6.
    
The ongoing threat of climate change poses an increasing risk to biodiversity, especially for currently threatened species. Climate change can both directly impact species and interact with other pre-existing threats, such as habitat loss, to further amplify species' risk of extinction. Recognizing the threat of climate change in extinction risk assessments and recovery planning for imperilled species is essential for tailoring and prioritizing recovery actions for climate-threatened species. Using species legally listed in Canada we show that 44.1% of species' risk assessments identify the threat of climate change, nonetheless, 43.5% of assessments completely omit climate change. Species assessed more recently were more likely to be identified as climate-threatened, however, the strength of this relationship varied across taxonomic groups. The likelihood that climate change was identified as a threat was also strongly affected by the use of a standardized threat assessment process. Of the climate-threatened species, less than half (46.0%) of species' recovery plans specified actions aimed explicitly at minimizing climate impacts and only 3.8% of recovery plans recommended habitat or population management actions. Climate-targeted recovery actions were more likely to be included in more recent plans, and were marginally more likely for species where climate change was considered a major threat. Our findings highlight the urgent need for consistent and standardized assessments of the threat of climate change, including the consideration of potential synergies between climate change and other existing threats. Performing species-specific climate change vulnerability assessments may serve to complement existing assessment and recovery planning processes. We provide additional recommendations aimed at threatened species recovery planners for improving the integration of the threat of climate change into species extinction risk assessments and recovery planning processes for listed species.  相似文献   

7.
    
  1. Tropical montane organisms are vulnerable to climate change because of elevational specialisation, but little is known of the variability in elevational specialisation across tropical insects.
  2. We assessed elevational specialisation across several insect taxa comprising four trophic groups 80–2263 m up an elevational transect in Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest, using community‐based and species‐based approaches.
  3. We sampled 697 species, of which 32% were found only in the top and 45% only in the bottom half of the transect. Considering only the 182 species with at least five individuals recorded, the percentage of species found exclusively in the top or bottom half drops to 16% and 24%.
  4. Across four vegetation belts (lower montane forest, montane forest, upper montane forest and Campos de Altitude) the Eumolpinae (herbivores) were more specialised than Scarabaeinae (saprotrophs), or Lampyridae (predators). This result was robust to the treatment of rare species, and the difference was most marked at higher elevations. Lampyridae lacked upper montane forest specialists.
  5. Using all species sampled, specialisation to the upper or lower half of the transect was greatest among Chrysomelidae, Curculionidae (both herbivores) and Lampyridae, and lowest among Tiphiidae (parasitoids) and Coccinellidae (predators). Considering only better sampled species, however, Lampyridae were the most specialised and Braconidae the least specialised. Trophic groups also varied consistent with these findings.
  6. Our findings suggest high elevational specialisation and concomitant extinction risk in Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest insects. Differences in elevational specialisation between taxonomic groups may alter the functioning of insect communities under climate change.
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8.
Recent proposals to compensate developing countries for reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) under forthcoming climate change mitigation regimes are receiving increasing attention. Here we demonstrate that if RED credits were traded on international carbon markets, even moderate decreases in deforestation rates could generate billions of Euros annually for tropical forest conservation. We also discuss the main challenges for a RED mechanism that delivers real climatic benefits. These include providing sufficient incentives while only rewarding deforestation reductions beyond business-as-usual scenarios, addressing risks arising from forest degradation and international leakage, and ensuring permanence of emission reductions. Governance may become a formidable challenge for RED because some countries with the highest RED potentials score poorly on governance indices. In addition to climate mitigation, RED funds could help achieve substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation and human development. However, this will probably require targeted additional support because the highest biodiversity threats and human development needs may exist in countries that have limited income potentials from RED. In conclusion, how successfully a market-based RED mechanism can contribute to climate change mitigation, conservation and development will strongly depend on accompanying measures and carefully designed incentive structures involving governments, business, as well as the conservation and development communities.  相似文献   

9.
    
Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision‐making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate‐threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend‐based rather than purely trait‐based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.  相似文献   

10.
    
Altitudinal gradients are an excellent study tool to help understand the mechanisms shaping community assembly. We established a series of altitudinal gradients along the east coast of Australia to describe how the distribution of a hyper‐diverse herbivore group (night‐flying Lepidoptera) changes across an environmental gradient in subtropical and tropical rainforests. Two transects were in subtropical rainforest in the same bioregion, one in south‐east Queensland (28.7°S) and one in north east New South Wales (29.7°S). Two were in tropical rainforest, one in mid‐east Queensland (21.1°S) and one in the Wet Tropics of northern Queensland (17.5°S). Replicate plots were established in altitudinal bands separated by 200 m. Canopy and understorey moths were sampled at the beginning and end of the wet season using automatic Pennsylvania light traps. We sorted a total of 93 400 individuals, belonging to 3035 species. The two subtropical transects in the same region showed similar patterns of turnover across altitude, with the most distinctive assemblage occurring at the highest altitude. Moth assemblages in the tropical transects tended to show distinct ‘lowland’ and ‘upland’ communities. For species that were common across several of the transects, many were found at lower altitudes in the subtropics and higher altitudes in the tropics, suggesting they are sensitive to environmental conditions, and track their physiological envelopes across latitudes. These results suggest ubiquitous altitudinal stratification in tropical and subtropical Australian rainforests. The marked response of species to latitude and altitude demonstrates they are sensitive to climatic variables and can be used as indicators to understand future community responses to climate change.  相似文献   

11.
    
Anthropogenic rapid warming has caused decreases in richness and body mass of birds following the metabolic theory of ecology; yet, the pervasiveness of these shifts remains controversial among different taxa. Here, by combining phylogenetic methods and fossil data, we synthesized spatial patterns of richness and body mass for 328 seabird species belonging to two groups: Procellariimorphae (PM) and non-Procellariimorphae (NPM). We found that the relationship between body mass and richness, as well as diversification rate, exhibits distinct patterns in these two groups. Ancestral state reconstruction analyses indicate that smaller PM, as opposed to NPM seabirds, evolved in warmer waters from larger ancestors and exhibited a slower diversification rate. Different ancestral climatic origins explain the reduced influence of environmental factors on richness patterns among PM compared to NPM seabirds. Furthermore, whereas NPM seabirds in high latitudes face a high extinction risk, warmer sea temperatures positively correlate with a high extinction risk among PM seabirds. Our results indicate that PM seabirds, evolving from cold waters, have reduced body mass and diversification rate, making them more vulnerable to warmer temperature.  相似文献   

12.
    
As rates of global warming increase rapidly, identifying species at risk of decline due to climate impacts and the factors affecting this risk have become key challenges in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we present a framework for assessing three components of climate‐related risk for species: vulnerability, exposure and hazard. We used the relationship between the observed response of species to climate change and a set of intrinsic traits (e.g. weaning age) and extrinsic factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality within a species geographic range) to predict, respectively, the vulnerability and exposure of all data‐sufficient terrestrial non‐volant mammals (3,953 species). Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range), we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south‐western Kenya, north‐eastern Tanzania, north‐eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua‐New Guinea. Our framework identifies priority areas for monitoring climate change effects on species and directing climate mitigation actions for biodiversity.  相似文献   

13.
《Current biology : CB》2023,33(7):1381-1388.e6
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14.
    
Climate change poses significant challenges to protected area management globally. Anticipatory climate adaptation planning relies on vulnerability assessments that identify parks and resources at risk from climate change and associated vulnerability drivers. However, there is currently little understanding of where and how protected area assessments have been conducted and what assessment approaches best inform park management. To address this knowledge gap, we systematically evaluated climate-change vulnerability assessments of natural resources in U.S. National Parks. We categorized the spatial scale, resources, methods, and handling of uncertainty for each assessment and mapped which parks have assessments and for what resources. We found that a few broad-scale assessments provide baseline information—primarily regarding physical climate change exposure—for all parks and can support regional to national decisions. However, finer-scale assessments are required to inform decisions for individual or small groups of parks. Only 10% of parks had park-specific assessments describing key climate impacts and identifying priority resource vulnerabilities, and 37% lacked any regional or park-specific assessments. We identify assessment approaches that match the scale and objectives of different protected area management decisions and recommend a multi-scaled approach to implementing assessments to meet the information needs of a large, protected area network like the National Park system.  相似文献   

15.
李海东  高吉喜 《生态学报》2020,40(11):3844-3850
应对气候变化和保护生物多样性是2大全球性热点环境问题。气候变化导致物种多样性丧失、生态系统服务降低和区域生态安全屏障功能受损,威胁到中国国土生态安全格局和生态脆弱区域的可持续发展,给生物多样性保护带来新的挑战。做好生物多样性保护适应气候变化的风险管理工作,既是生物多样性应对气候变化风险的必要措施,也是减缓气候变化的重要途径。结合爱知目标10的实现情况,分析了欧盟、澳大利亚、美国等发达国家发布的生物多样性适应气候变化技术政策制定情况、中国生物多样性应对气候变化进展情况,剖析了中国生物多样性保护适应气候变化存在的问题,包括生物多样性应对气候变化的科学认知亟待提高、生物多样性保护适应气候变化的能力建设不足、自然保护地之间缺乏适应气候变化的生态廊道网络、生物多样性保护适应气候变化的技术标准缺乏。研究提出了中国生物多样性应对气候变化的适应性管理策略,包括制定《中国生物多样性保护协同应对气候变化的国家方案》、加强生物多样性保护适应气候变化的能力建设、开展自然保护区适应气候变化的风险管理试点、强化生物多样性应对气候变化的科技支撑,以期为推进纳入气候变化风险管理的生物多样性保护工作提供决策依据。  相似文献   

16.
    
To evaluate the performance of species distribution models in predicting observed colonisations, persistences and extirpations in response to changes in climate and land use over a multi-decadal period.  相似文献   

17.
    
Climate change is a significant threat to biodiversity globally. Here, we assessed the risk to 544 birds in the United States from future climate change-related threats under a mitigation-dependent global warming scenario of 1.5°C and an unmitigated scenario of 3.0°C. Threats considered included sea level rise, human land cover conversion, and extreme weather events. We identified potential impacts to individual species by overlaying future bird ranges with threats to calculate the proportion of species' ranges affected, and mapped a place-based index of risk based on hazard (coincident threats), exposure (potential species richness), and vulnerability (potential richness of vulnerable species). Extreme weather events had the most extensive spatial coverage and contribution to risk, but urbanization and sea level rise also had disproportionate impacts on species relative to their coverage. With unmitigated climate change, multiple coincident threats affected over 88% of the area of the conterminous United States, and 97% of species could be affected by two or more climate-related threats. Some habitat groups will see up to 96% of species facing three or more threats. Species of conservation concern also faced more threats regardless of climate change scenario. However, climate change mitigation would reduce risk to birds from climate change-related threats across over 90% of the US.  相似文献   

18.
    
Climate-driven biodiversity erosion is escalating at an alarming rate. The pressure imposed by climate change is exceptionally high in tropical ecosystems, where species adapted to narrow environmental ranges exhibit strong physiological constraints. Despite the observed detrimental effect of climate change on ecosystems at a global scale, our understanding of the extent to which multiple climatic drivers affect population dynamics is limited. Here, we disentangle the impact of different climatic stressors on 47 rainforest birds inhabiting the mountains of the Australian Wet Tropics using hierarchical population models. We estimate the effect of spatiotemporal changes in temperature, precipitation, heatwaves, droughts and cyclones on the population dynamics of rainforest birds between 2000 and 2016. We find a strong effect of warming and changes in rainfall patterns across the elevational-segregated bird communities, with lowland populations benefiting from increasing temperature and precipitation, while upland species show an inverse strong negative response to the same drivers. Additionally, we find a negative effect of heatwaves on lowland populations, a pattern associated with the observed distribution of these extreme events across elevations. In contrast, cyclones and droughts have a marginal effect on spatiotemporal changes in rainforest bird communities, suggesting a species-specific response unrelated to the elevational gradient. This study demonstrated the importance of unravelling the drivers of climate change impacts on population changes, providing significant insight into the mechanisms accelerating climate-induced biodiversity degradation.  相似文献   

19.
    
《Current biology : CB》2020,30(19):3871-3879.e7
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20.
多气候情景下中国森林火灾风险评估   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
森林火灾风险主要取决于致灾因子、承灾体以及防灾减灾能力,综合评估和预测森林火灾风险是制定科学的林火管理政策的基础.本文基于经典自然灾害风险模型和可获取数据构建森林火灾风险评估模型与指标体系,评估过去和未来的森林火灾风险.未来气候情景数据包括RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5下5个全球气候模式(GFDL-ESM2M、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-LR、 MIROC-ESM-CHEM和NorESM1-M)日值数据.根据最高温度、最小相对湿度、平均风速和每日降水量分别计算1987—2050年历史观测数据和未来气候情景下各格点每日火险天气指数系统中各个指数.结果表明: 1987—2010年,森林火灾风险高和很高的区域分别占21.2%和6.2%,主要分布在大兴安岭和长白山地区、云南大部分区域和南方零散分布的区域.森林火灾可能性高和很高的区域主要分布在东北和西南地区,分别占森林面积的13.1%和4.0%.与观测时段相比,2021—2050年RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5情景下森林火灾可能性高和很高的区域分别增加0.6%、5.5%、2.3%和3.5%,华北地区增幅明显.气候变化引起的森林火灾高风险区域有些增加,RCP 8.5情景下增幅最明显(+1.6%).  相似文献   

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