Immigrants and refugees: the importance of dispersal in mediating biotic attrition under climate change

Montane tropical rainforests are critically important areas for global bird diversity, but are projected to be highly vulnerable to contemporary climate change. Upslope shifts of lowland species may partially offset declines in upland species but also result in a process of lowland biotic attrition. This latter process is contingent on the absence of species adapted to novel warm climates, and isolation from pools of potential colonizers. In the Australian Wet Tropics, species distribution modelling has forecast critical declines in suitable environmental area for upland endemic birds, raising the question of the future role of both natural and assisted dispersal in species survival, but information is lacking for important neighbouring rainforest regions. Here we use expanded geographic coverage of data to model the realized distributions of 120 bird species found in north‐eastern Australian rainforest, including species from potential source locations in the north and recipient locations in the south. We reaffirm previous conclusions as to the high vulnerability of this fauna to global warming, and extend the list of species whose suitable environmental area is projected to decrease. However, we find that expansion of suitable area for some species currently restricted to northern rainforests has the potential to offset biotic attrition in lowland forest of the Australian Wet Tropics. By examining contrasting dispersal scenarios, we show that responses to climate change in this region may critically depend on dispersal limitation, as climate change shifts the suitable environmental envelopes of many species south into currently unsuitable habitats. For lowland and northern species, future change in vegetation connectivity across contemporary habitat barriers is likely to be an important mediator of climate change impacts. In contrast, upland species are projected to become increasingly isolated and restricted. Their survival is likely to be more dependent on the viability of assisted migration, and the emergence and persistence of suitable environments at recipient locations.     

Recent speciation and limited phylogeographic structure in Mixophyes frogs from the Australian Wet Tropics

Through a combination of macroecological, paleoecological, and phylogeographical analyses, the rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT) have emerged as a useful model for understanding sensitivity of species to past climatic change and, hence, for predicting vulnerability to future change. To extend the ecological breadth of comparative phylogeographic analyses, we investigate a clade of myobatrachid frogs, Mixophyes, a genus of large, stream-breeding but terrestrial frogs, three species of which are endemic to rainforests of the AWT. Here we (i) combine mtDNA, allozyme, and morphological data to refine knowledge of the geographic and environmental distribution of each taxon, (ii) resolve relationships among species, and (iii) use mtDNA phylogeography to infer responses of the three taxa to late-Pleistocene and Holocene climatic change. Each of the three species (Mixophyes carbinensis, Mixophyes coggeri, and Mixophyes schevilli) is effectively diagnosed by mtDNA, with the two small-bodied, allopatric species (M. carbinensis and M. schevilli) being sister-taxa. Mixophyes have a very different history from other AWT amphibians, with more recent speciation (net divergences <5%) and much lower and geographically unstructured mtDNA diversity within each species. The combination of low diversity (θ(Π)<0.36%) and strong signals of recent population expansion (Fu's Fs<0) suggests very high sensitivity to climate-driven rainforest dynamics, perhaps due to their large body size, low population density, and their requirement for both wet forest-floor litter and streams suitable for breeding. The results further emphasize the heterogeneity of species' responses to climate change and suggest that species dependent on multiple habitat types could be especially vulnerable.     

Resistance and resilience: quantifying relative extinction risk in a diverse assemblage of Australian tropical rainforest vertebrates

Aim Assessing the relative vulnerability of species within an assemblage to extinction is crucial for conservation planning at the regional scale. Here, we quantify relative vulnerability to extinction, in terms of both resistance and resilience to environmental change, in an assemblage of tropical rainforest vertebrates. Location Wet Tropics Bioregion, north Queensland, Australia. Methods We collated data on 163 vertebrates that occur in the Australian Wet Tropics, including 24 frogs, 33 reptiles, 19 mammals and 87 birds. We used the ‘seven forms of rarity’ model to assess relative vulnerability or resistance to environmental change. We then develop a new analogous eight‐celled model to assess relative resilience, or potential to recover from environmental perturbation, based on reproductive output, potential for dispersal and climatic niche marginality. Results In the rarity model, our assemblage had more species very vulnerable and very resistant than expected by chance. There was a more even distribution of species over the categories in the resilience model. The three traits included in each model were not independent of each other; species that were widespread were also habitat generalists, while species with narrow geographical ranges tended to be locally abundant. In the resilience model, species with low reproductive output had a narrow climatic niche and also a low capacity to disperse. Frogs were the most vulnerable taxonomic group overall. The model categories were compared to current IUCN category of listed species, and the product of the two models was best correlated with IUCN listings. Main conclusions The models presented here offer an objective way to predict the resistance of a species to environmental change, and its capacity to recover from disturbance. The new resilience model has similar advantages to the rarity model, in that it uses simple information and is therefore useful for examining patterns in assemblages with many poorly known species.     

Distributional patterns of herpetofauna in monsoon rainforests of the Northern Territory,Australia

Abstract The herpetofauna of 50 monsoon rainforest patches in the Top End of the Northern Territory was surveyed during the dry season of 1990. This fauna contains few obligate monsoon rainforest species, many species which favour this habitat as part of a broad habitat range and a large number of species (indeed most of the regional species pool) that occasionally occur within monsoon rainforests. The taxonomic composition of species favouring monsoon rainforests is a non-random selection from the regional pool, with relatively few species in the families Agamidae and Scincidae occurring commonly in monsoon rainforests. Environmental variation among the rainforest patches sampled was portrayed by ordination, with the first axis corresponding to an environmental gradient from coastal sites to inland rocky rainforests and the second a gradient from relatively dry thickets to tall dense rainforests close to water. The distributions of herpetofauna species were depicted on this ordination space. Most frog species occurred in relatively wet rainforests and most gecko species were relatively restricted to drier rainforests. A substantial component of the herpetofauna was associated with rainforests on rocky substrate. In contrast to this relatively good association with these defined gradients, there was little apparent influence of patch size or level of disturbance on the distribution of individual species of herpetofauna. Sampling month was related to the abundance of many species, with many frog species and some snake and skink species declining (but some skink and one frog species increasing) in abundance in rainforest patches during the late dry season. This seasonal change in abundance is not due to movements from rainforest patches to adjacent vegetation types (or vice versa) but rather to total landscape (cross-habitat) changes in abundance (or detectability). The species composition of patches tended to be idiosyncratic, with substantial variability in composition, even between nearby patches of like environment. Hence it is not possible to nominate a representative rainforest herpetofauna, and indeed a classification of all quadrats (including those from rainforests, rainforest edges and adjacent habitats) based on herpetofauna species composition grouped many non-rainforest quadrats with those from rainforests. There was no rainforest edge herpetofauna assemblage. The herpetofauna from rainforests of the Northern Territory was similar to but somewhat richer than that recorded from the even more attenuated monsoon rainforest area of the Kimberley of northwestern Australia, but shared relatively few species with a sampling from monsoon rainforests from western Cape York. Frog species were more likely to be recorded across these three regions than were snake species. The number of herpetofaunal species per patch was low compared to tropical forests in northeastern Australia, Asia and central America. The long dry season of the Top End may contribute to this impoverishment. However, the small total area of monsoon rainforests in this region, the current scattered network of patches and historical fluctuations in extent and distribution of this habitat are probably at least as important.     

Potential of ants and beetles as indicators of rainforest restoration: characterising pasture and rainforest remnants as reference habitats

Assessment of habitat restoration requires baseline information on the communities present in both converted and intact forms of the focal ecosystem to enable comparisons with restored sites. Ants and beetles are commonly used in ecological monitoring programmes, as they display assemblage‐level responses to habitat change and can be a more direct measure of the recommencement of some ecosystem functions than the presence of more obvious biota such as plants. However, as these taxa differ substantially in ecological traits, their response patterns and utility as potential bioindicators may vary. Using pitfall traps, we compared assemblages of ant and beetle species between two reference habitats, pasture and remnant rainforest in subtropical eastern Australia. The assemblage composition of both groups differed significantly between rainforest and pasture but only beetles showed accompanying differences in species richness and abundance, which were both significantly lower in pasture. We identified ant and beetle species characteristic of either pasture or rainforest remnants, which may be used as bioindicators in future monitoring programmes. These species, however, displayed patchy distributions, suggesting that the use of individual species as bioindicators is likely to be unreliable. These findings support the use of ‘composite habitat indices’, which combine information from sets of indicator species. Given that patterns of change in species composition were similar between ants and beetles, either is an appropriate focal taxon for future monitoring programmes. Beetles, however, displayed some limitations as no species were indicative of the disturbed pasture habitat. Ants and beetles are likely to respond in different ways to different aspects of habitat change; thus, using both together could strengthen assessments of rainforest degradation or recovery.     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

Surrogate species protection in Bolivia under climate and land cover change scenarios

The Amazon rainforest covers more than 60% of Bolivia’s lowlands, providing habitat for many endemic and threatened species. Bolivia has the highest rates of deforestation of the Amazon biome, which degrades and fragments species habitat. Anthropogenic habitat changes could be exacerbated by climate change, and therefore, developing relevant strategies for biodiversity protection under global change scenarios is a necessary step in conservation planning.In this research we used multi-species umbrella concept to evaluate the degree of habitat impacts due to climate and land cover change in Bolivia. We used species distribution modeling to map three focal species (Jaguar, Lowland Tapir and Lesser Anteater) and assessed current protected area network effectiveness under future climate and land cover change scenarios for 2050.The studied focal species will lose between 70% and 83% of their ranges under future climate and land-cover change scenarios, decreasing the level of protection to 10% of their original ranges. Existing protected area network should be reconsidered to maintain current and future biodiversity habitats.     

Vulnerable taxa of European Plecoptera (Insecta) in the context of climate change

We evaluated 516 species and/or subspecies of European stoneflies for vulnerability to climate change according to autoecological data. The variables considered were stream zonation preference, altitude preference, current preference, temperature range preference, endemism and rare species. Presence in ecoregions was used to analyse the vulnerability of taxa in relation to their distribution. We selected the variables that provided information on vulnerability to change in climate. Thus, we chose strictly crenal taxa, high-altitude taxa, rheobionts, cold stenotherm taxa, micro-endemic taxa and rare taxa. Our analysis showed that at least 324 taxa (62.79%) can be included in one or more categories of vulnerability to climate change. Of these, 43 taxa would be included in three or more vulnerability categories, representing the most threatened taxa. The most threatened species and the main factors affecting their distribution are discussed. Endangered potamal species, with populations that have decreased mainly as a consequence of habitat alteration, also could suffer from the effects of climate change. Thus, the total number of taxa at risk is particularly high. Not only are a great diversity of European stoneflies concentrated in the Alps, Pyrenees and Iberian Peninsula, but so are the most vulnerable taxa. These places are likely to be greatly affected by climate change according to climate models. In general, an impoverishment of European Plecoptera taxa will probably occur as a consequence of climate change, and only taxa with wide tolerance ranges will increase in abundance, resulting in lower overall faunal diversity.     

The use of ants and other soil and litter arthropods as bio-indicators of the impacts of rainforest clearing and subsequent land use

The present study investigated the impacts of rainforest clearance, and associated subsequent land␣use for pasture, on assemblages of soil and litter arthropods in eastern subtropical Australia. We assessed the utility of soil and litter arthropods as potential bio-indicators of cleared and forested habitats. Arthropods were sampled from 24 sites (12 sites each in rainforest and pasture) using two methods (extraction from litter, pitfall traps). Responses of taxa were analysed at various levels of taxonomic resolution, including ‘coarse’ arthropods (all arthropods sorted to Order/Class), ant genera and ant species. Multivariate analyses of arthropod composition indicated that an increase in the level of taxonomic resolution did not provide a commensurate increase in the sensitivity of assemblage response. Indicator values (IndVals), computed for each taxon, showed that a number of arthropod taxa may have potential as bio-indicators of habitat change. However the use of many of these, especially many ant species found in our study, may be unreliable because even after extensive numbers of sites were sampled, most species showed patchy distributions. To overcome this problem, we generated ‘composite indices’, by combining information from sets of indicator taxa. The utility of these composite indices is discussed.     

Altitudinal patterns of moth diversity in tropical and subtropical Australian rainforests

Altitudinal gradients are an excellent study tool to help understand the mechanisms shaping community assembly. We established a series of altitudinal gradients along the east coast of Australia to describe how the distribution of a hyper‐diverse herbivore group (night‐flying Lepidoptera) changes across an environmental gradient in subtropical and tropical rainforests. Two transects were in subtropical rainforest in the same bioregion, one in south‐east Queensland (28.7°S) and one in north east New South Wales (29.7°S). Two were in tropical rainforest, one in mid‐east Queensland (21.1°S) and one in the Wet Tropics of northern Queensland (17.5°S). Replicate plots were established in altitudinal bands separated by 200 m. Canopy and understorey moths were sampled at the beginning and end of the wet season using automatic Pennsylvania light traps. We sorted a total of 93 400 individuals, belonging to 3035 species. The two subtropical transects in the same region showed similar patterns of turnover across altitude, with the most distinctive assemblage occurring at the highest altitude. Moth assemblages in the tropical transects tended to show distinct ‘lowland’ and ‘upland’ communities. For species that were common across several of the transects, many were found at lower altitudes in the subtropics and higher altitudes in the tropics, suggesting they are sensitive to environmental conditions, and track their physiological envelopes across latitudes. These results suggest ubiquitous altitudinal stratification in tropical and subtropical Australian rainforests. The marked response of species to latitude and altitude demonstrates they are sensitive to climatic variables and can be used as indicators to understand future community responses to climate change.     

气候变化和人为干扰对中国三种金丝猴地理分布的未来影响

气候变化和人为干扰正成为物种多样性丧失的重要驱动力.本文基于MaxEnt模型,探讨气候变化和人为干扰对中国3种金丝猴(川金丝猴Rhinopithiecus roxellana、滇金丝猴R.bieti和黔金丝猴R.brelichi)地理分布变迁的影响:(1)气候变化和人为干扰导致3种金丝猴在2000年和未来(2050年)...     

The use of habitat mosaics by terrestrial vertebrate fauna: implications for conservation and management

Many species of vertebrates require multiple habitats to obtain different resources at different stages of their life-cycles. Use of habitat mosaics takes place on a variety of spatial and temporal scales, from a daily requirement for adjacent habitats to seasonal use of geographically separated environments. Mosaics of habitats are also required in some species to allow ontogenetic habitat shifts, while in others each sex may have specific requirements that are met by different habitats. The extent and nature of animal movements are key (but generally poorly known) factors affecting the vulnerability of species to landscape change. The requirement by many species for multiple habitats suggests that their conservation will be most effective in a mosaic environment and that protection of certain high profile habitats alone, such as rainforest, will be insufficient to achieve conservation goals. Management regimes that result in homogenization of habitats should be avoided. Priority should be given to research that identifies the extent to which species can locate habitat mosaics, at different spatial scales and arrangements, in modified environments.     

An integrated risk assessment for climate change: analysing the vulnerability of sharks and rays on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

An Integrated Risk Assessment for Climate Change (IRACC) is developed and applied to assess the vulnerability of sharks and rays on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to climate change. The IRACC merges a traditional climate change vulnerability framework with approaches from fisheries ecological risk assessments. This semi‐quantitative assessment accommodates uncertainty and can be applied at different spatial and temporal scales to identify exposure factors, at‐risk species and their key biological and ecological attributes, critical habitats a`nd ecological processes, and major knowledge gaps. Consequently, the IRACC can provide a foundation upon which to develop climate change response strategies. Here, we describe the assessment process, demonstrate its application to GBR shark and ray species, and explore the issues affecting their vulnerability to climate change. The assessment indicates that for the GBR, freshwater/estuarine and reef associated sharks and rays are most vulnerable to climate change, and that vulnerability is driven by case‐specific interactions of multiple factors and species attributes. Changes in temperature, freshwater input and ocean circulation will have the most widespread effects on these species. Although relatively few GBR sharks and rays were assessed as highly vulnerable, their vulnerability increases when synergies with other factors are considered. This is especially true for freshwater/estuarine and coastal/inshore sharks and rays. Reducing the impacts of climate change on the GBR's sharks and rays requires a range of approaches including mitigating climate change and addressing habitat degradation and sustainability issues. Species‐specific conservation actions may be required for higher risk species (e.g. the freshwater whipray, porcupine ray, speartooth shark and sawfishes) including reducing mortality, preserving coastal catchments and estuarine habitats, and addressing fisheries sustainability. The assessment identified many knowledge gaps concerning GBR habitats and processes, and highlights the need for improved understanding of the biology and ecology of the sharks and rays of the GBR.     

Rainforest litter invertebrates decimated by high severity burns during Australia's gigafires

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme fires. In 2019–2020, extreme fires burned 97 000 km² of native vegetation in south-eastern Australia, affecting many areas of rainforest, which has historically burned less frequently. One year post-fires, we surveyed litter macroinvertebrates in 52 temperate rainforest sites. Sites had experienced increasing levels of fire severity (unburnt, medium severity and high severity). We asked how fire severity affected: (1) litter macroinvertebrate habitats; (2) the abundance of litter macroinvertebrate taxa per unit area; and (3) abundance relative to litter habitat (volumetric density). We also estimated the loss of litter macroinvertebrates across rainforests in the study region. High severity burns supported only a fifth of the litter volume and canopy cover as unburnt sites, lower soil moisture and higher herb cover. Medium burns were intermediate. Macroinvertebrate abundance declined with burn severity: high severity burns supported only 26% of the abundance in unburnt sites; medium severity burns supported 80% of that in unburnt sites. Patterns were similar for all taxa, with millipedes declining most. High severity fires resulted in up to 1.90 million fewer macroinvertebrates per hectare; 0.53 million fewer per hectare of medium burn rainforest. Across the study region, we estimate that 60 billion fewer litter macroinvertebrates persisted in temperate rainforests alone. Volumetric densities of many litter macroinvertebrate taxa in high severity burns were marginally higher than in unburnt sites, suggesting nutrients may be more available post-fire, or that persisting individuals become concentrated in the leaf litter. For less desiccation-tolerant groups (e.g., amphipods), density declines with increasing severity may reflect the combined impact of low soil moisture and reduced litter cover. Many taxa persisted following high severity fires, but declines were substantial, and taxa differed in their vulnerability. Longer-term monitoring is required to understand the recovery trajectory and impacts on ecological function.     

Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation–climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high‐resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.     

Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change

Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species‐specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the ‘business‐as‐usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large‐bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information.     

Development of a framework to predict the effects of climate change on birds

Climate change is expected to alter biological phenomena across the world, including the numbers and distributions of species and the timing of significant events in their life cycles such as reproduction and migration. Understanding how species will respond to future climate change is essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Accordingly, in this research, we advanced the understanding of avian ecology by developing a framework for how climate change affects birds. In the first step, we evaluated the vulnerability of 537 species to climate change based on the distribution, physiology, phenology, biotic interactions, and protection status of the species in Iran. Then, we used MaxEnt models to predict the potential changes in the ranges of vulnerable species due to climate change in the next 70 years. In the third step, hotspots for birds under current and future conditions were identified using an ensemble forecasting framework and the potential changes in the hotspots in the next 70 years were predicted. Results of the climate vulnerability evaluation showed that around 40% of bird species in Iran are highly vulnerable. Our results showed that small parts of suitable habitats are currently located within protected areas. Moreover, the results showed that even smaller portions of suitable habitats will fall within protected areas in the future. The reduced coverage in the future will diminish the benefits of protected areas for the species and make the species more vulnerable to climate change. These results can be used by wildlife managers to identify areas with protection priority, and for prediction of corridors, core habitats, and new areas to establish protected areas in the future.     

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.     

Ecometagenetics confirm high tropical rainforest nematode diversity

The general patterns of increasing biodiversity from the poles to the equator have been well documented for large terrestrial organisms such as plants and vertebrates but are largely unknown for microbiota. In contrast to macrobiota, microbiota have long been assumed to exhibit cosmopolitan, random distributions and a lack of spatial patterns. To evaluate the assumption, we conducted a survey of nematode diversity within the soil, litter and canopy habitats of the humid lowland tropical rainforest of Costa Rica using an ultrasequencing ecometagenetic approach at a species-equivalent taxonomic level. Our data indicate that both richness and diversity of nematode communities in the tropical rainforests of Costa Rica are high and exceed observed values from temperate ecosystems. The majority of nematode species were unknown to science, providing evidence for the presence of highly endemic (not cosmopolitan) species of still completely undiscovered biodiversity. Most importantly, the greater taxonomic resolution used here allowed us to reveal predictable habitat associations for specific taxa and thus gain insights into their nonrandom distribution patterns.     

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.