Forecasting range shifts of a cold‐adapted species under climate change: are genomic and ecological diversity within species crucial for future resilience?

Cold‐adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more restricted, less diverse taxa before the effects of those losses impact their overall diversity and resilience. Here, we explore the potential relationship between intraspecific genetic and ecological diversity and future resilience, using the cold‐adapted plant Primula farinosa. We employ high‐throughput sequencing to assess the genomic diversity of phylogeographic lineages in P. farinosa. Additionally, we use current climatic variables to define niche breadth and niche differentiation across lineages. Finally, we calibrate species distribution models (SDMs) and project the climatic preferences of each lineage on future climate to predict lineage‐specific shifts in climatically suitable habitats. Our study predicts relative persistence of future suitable habitats for the most genetically and ecologically diverse lineages of the cold‐adapted P. farinosa, but significant reduction of them for two out of its four lineages. While we do not provide specific experiments aimed at identifying the causal links between genetic diversity and resilience to climate change, our results indicate that greater genetic diversity and wider ecological breadth may buffer species responses to rapid climatic changes. This study further highlights the importance of integrating knowledge of intraspecific diversity for predicting species fate in response to climate change.     

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio‐climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs “hindcasting” of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species‐specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white‐beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time‐scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies.     

Cryptic niche conservatism among evolutionary lineages of an invasive lizard

Aim There is increasing evidence that the quality and breadth of ecological niches vary among individuals, populations, evolutionary lineages and therefore also across the range of a species. Sufficient knowledge about niche divergence among clades might thus be crucial for predicting the invasion potential of species. We tested for the first time whether evolutionary lineages of an invasive species vary in their climate niches and invasive potential. Furthermore, we tested whether lineage‐specific models show a better performance than combined models. Location Europe. Methods We used species distribution models (SDMs) based on climatic information at native and invasive ranges to test for intra‐specific niche divergence among mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) clades of the invasive wall lizard Podarcis muralis. Using DNA barcoding, we assigned 77 invasive populations in Central Europe to eight geographically distinct evolutionary lineages. Niche similarity among lineages was assessed and the predictive power of a combination of clade‐specific SDMs was compared with a combined SDM using the pooled records of all lineages. Results We recorded eight different invasive mtDNA clades in Central Europe. The analysed clades had rather similar realized niches in their native and invasive ranges, whereas inter‐clade niche differentiation was comparatively strong. However, we found only a weak correlation between geographic origin (i.e. mtDNA clade) and invasive occurrences. Clades with narrow realized niches still became successful invaders far outside their native range, most probably due to broader fundamental niches. The combined model using data for all invasive lineages achieved a much better prediction of the invasive potential. Conclusions Our results indicate that the observed niche differentiation among evolutionary lineages is mainly driven by niche realization and not by differences in the fundamental niches. Such cryptic niche conservatism might hamper the success of clade‐specific niche modelling. Cryptic niche conservatism may in general explain the invasion success of species in areas with apparently unsuitable climate.     

Niche differentiation in a postglacial colonizer,the bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus

Species‐level environmental niche modeling has been crucial in efforts to understand how species respond to climate variation and change. However, species often exhibit local adaptation and intraspecific niche differences that may be important to consider in predicting responses to climate. Here, we explore whether phylogeographic lineages of the bank vole originating from different glacial refugia (Carpathian, Western, Eastern, and Southern) show niche differentiation, which would suggest a role for local adaptation in biogeography of this widespread Eurasian small mammal. We first model the environmental requirements for the bank vole using species‐wide occurrences (210 filtered records) and then model each lineage separately to examine niche overlap and test for niche differentiation in geographic and environmental space. We then use the models to estimate past [Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene] habitat suitability to compare with previously hypothesized glacial refugia for this species. Environmental niches are statistically significantly different from each other for all pairs of lineages in geographic and environmental space, and these differences cannot be explained by habitat availability within their respective ranges. Together with the inability of most of the lineages to correctly predict the distributions of other lineages, these results support intraspecific ecological differentiation in the bank vole. Model projections of habitat suitability during the LGM support glacial survival of the bank vole in the Mediterranean region and in central and western Europe. Niche differences between lineages and the resulting spatial segregation of habitat suitability suggest ecological differentiation has played a role in determining the present phylogeographic patterns in the bank vole. Our study illustrates that models pooling lineages within a species may obscure the potential for different responses to climate change among populations.     

Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic

Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial–interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid‐Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross‐validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm‐temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum‐Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Multilocus phylogeography of a widespread savanna–woodland‐adapted rodent reveals the influence of Pleistocene geomorphology and climate change in Africa's Zambezi region

Understanding historical influences of climate and physiographic barriers in shaping patterns of biodiversity remains limited for many regions of the world. For mammals of continental Africa, phylogeographic studies, particularly for West African lineages, implicate both geographic barriers and climate oscillations in shaping small mammal diversity. In contrast, studies for southern African species have revealed conflicting phylogenetic patterns for how mammalian lineages respond to both climate change and geologic events such as river formation, especially during the Pleistocene. However, these studies were often biased by limited geographic sampling or exclusively focused on large‐bodied taxa. We exploited the broad southern African distribution of a savanna–woodland‐adapted African rodent, Gerbilliscus leucogaster (bushveld gerbil) and generated mitochondrial, autosomal and sex chromosome data to quantify regional signatures of climatic and vicariant biogeographic phenomena. Results indicate the most recent common ancestor for all G. leucogaster lineages occurred during the early Pleistocene. We documented six divergent mitochondrial lineages that diverged ~0.270–0.100 mya, each of which was geographically isolated during periods characterized by alterations to the course of the Zambezi River and its tributaries as well as regional ‘megadroughts’. Results demonstrate the presence of a widespread lineage exhibiting demographic expansion ~0.065–0.035 mya, a time that coincides with savanna–woodland expansion across southern Africa. A multilocus autosomal perspective revealed the influence of the Kafue River as a current barrier to gene flow and regions of secondary contact among divergent mitochondrial lineages. Our results demonstrate the importance of both climatic fluctuations and physiographic vicariance in shaping the distribution of southern African biodiversity.     

Habitat shifts of endangered species under altered climate conditions: importance of biotic interactions

Predicting changes in potential habitat for endangered species as a result of global warming requires considering more than future climate conditions; it is also necessary to evaluate biotic associations. Most distribution models predicting species responses to climate change include climate variables and occasionally topographic and edaphic parameters, rarely are biotic interactions included. Here, we incorporate biotic interactions into niche models to predict suitable habitat for species under altered climates. We constructed and evaluated niche models for an endangered butterfly and a threatened bird species, both are habitat specialists restricted to semiarid shrublands of southern California. To incorporate their dependency on shrubs, we first developed climate‐based niche models for shrubland vegetation and individual shrub species. We also developed models for the butterfly's larval host plants. Outputs from these models were included in the environmental variable dataset used to create butterfly and bird niche models. For both animal species, abiotic–biotic models outperformed the climate‐only model, with climate‐only models over‐predicting suitable habitat under current climate conditions. We used the climate‐only and abiotic–biotic models to calculate amounts of suitable habitat under altered climates and to evaluate species' sensitivities to climate change. We varied temperature (+0.6, +1.7, and +2.8 °C) and precipitation (50%, 90%, 100%, 110%, and 150%) relative to current climate averages and within ranges predicted by global climate change models. Suitable habitat for each species was reduced at all levels of temperature increase. Both species were sensitive to precipitation changes, particularly increases. Under altered climates, including biotic variables reduced habitat by 68–100% relative to the climate‐only model. To design reserve systems conserving sensitive species under global warming, it is important to consider biotic interactions, particularly for habitat specialists and species with strong dependencies on other species.     

Within‐taxon niche structure: niche conservatism,divergence and predicted effects of climate change

Several studies have observed that taxa below the level of species can vary in the degree to which they differ from one another in the environmental space they occupy. These patterns of within‐species niche variation raise the question of whether these differences should be considered when developing models for predicting the potential effects of climate change on species distributions. We address this question with two divergent datasets, one on sister species and subspecies from the European herpetofauna, the other on subspecies of breeding birds in North America. Atlas and observation data come from the Atlas of Amphibians and Reptiles in Europe and the North American Breeding Bird Survey, respectively. We develop boosted regression tree models of climate–distribution relationships and project the predicted geographic range of each taxon using interpolated weather station data and modeled climate for the year 2080. We find differences between models that distinguish the contributions of subtaxa and those that do not, in terms of prediction of both current and future distributions. In comparison to models that ignore sub‐taxon structure, models that incorporate this structure generally predict larger areas of suitable conditions, consistently perform better, if only marginally, as measured by cross‐validated AUC, and can reveal divergent potential effects of climate change on subtaxa. Differences in niche occupancy and predicted distribution appear between closely related taxa regardless of their phylogenetic distinctness. For these reasons, information on subtaxon membership and phylogeographic structure should be included in modeling exercises when available, in order to identify both the contribution of these units to the niche occupancy of species and the potentially distinct responses of subtaxa to climate change.     

Lineage Range Estimation Method Reveals Fine-Scale Endemism Linked to Pleistocene Stability in Australian Rainforest Herpetofauna

Areas of suitable habitat for species and communities have arisen, shifted, and disappeared with Pleistocene climate cycles, and through this shifting landscape, current biodiversity has found paths to the present. Evolutionary refugia, areas of relative habitat stability in this shifting landscape, support persistence of lineages through time, and are thus crucial to the accumulation and maintenance of biodiversity. Areas of endemism are indicative of refugial areas where diversity has persisted, and endemism of intraspecific lineages in particular is strongly associated with late-Pleistocene habitat stability. However, it remains a challenge to consistently estimate the geographic ranges of intraspecific lineages and thus infer phylogeographic endemism, because spatial sampling for genetic analyses is typically sparse relative to species records. We present a novel technique to model the geographic distribution of intraspecific lineages, which is informed by the ecological niche of a species and known locations of its constituent lineages. Our approach allows for the effects of isolation by unsuitable habitat, and captures uncertainty in the extent of lineage ranges. Applying this method to the arc of rainforest areas spanning 3500 km in eastern Australia, we estimated lineage endemism for 53 species of rainforest dependent herpetofauna with available phylogeographic data. We related endemism to the stability of rainforest habitat over the past 120,000 years and identified distinct concentrations of lineage endemism that can be considered putative refugia. These areas of lineage endemism are strongly related to historical stability of rainforest habitat, after controlling for the effects of current environment. In fact, a dynamic stability model that allows movement to track suitable habitat over time was the most important factor in explaining current patterns of endemism. The techniques presented here provide an objective, practical method for estimating geographic ranges below the species level, and including them in spatial analyses of biodiversity.     

Phylogeography of a widespread lizard complex reflects patterns of both geographic and ecological isolation

A primary challenge for modern phylogeography is understanding how ecology and geography, both contemporary and historical, shape the spatial distribution and evolutionary histories of species. Phylogeographic patterns are the result of many factors, including geology, climate, habitat, colonization history and lineage‐specific constraints. Assessing the relative influences of these factors is difficult because few species, regions and environments are sampled in enough detail to compare competing hypotheses rigorously and because a particular phylogeographic pattern can potentially result from different evolutionary scenarios. The silky anoles (Anolis sericeus complex) of Central America and Mexico are abundant and found in all types of lowland terrestrial habitat, offering an excellent opportunity to test the relative influences of the factors affecting diversification. Here, we performed a range‐wide statistical phylogeographic analysis on restriction site‐associated DNA (RAD) markers from silky anoles and compared the phylogeographic patterns we recovered to historical and contemporary environmental and topographic data. We constructed niche models to compare niche overlap between sister lineages and conducted coalescent simulations to characterize how the major lineages of silky anoles have diverged. Our results revealed that the mode of divergence for major lineage diversification events was geographic isolation, resulting in ecological divergence between lineages, followed by secondary contact. Moreover, comparisons of parapatric sister lineages suggest that ecological niche divergence contributed to isolation by environment in this system, reflecting the natural history differences among populations in divergent environments.     

Identifying glacial refugia in a geographic parthenogen using palaeoclimate modelling and phylogeography: the New Zealand stick insect Argosarchus horridus (White)

We have used phylogeographic analysis of mitochondrial DNA (COI and COII genes) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to reconstruct the population history of Argosarchus horridus (White), a widespread species of New Zealand stick insect. These data were used to address outstanding questions on the role of glacial refugia in determining the distribution and genetic structure of New Zealand species. Phylogeographic analysis shows a general pattern of high diversity in upper North Island and reduced diversity in lower North Island and South Island. The ENM indicates that during the last glacial maximum, A. horridus was largely restricted to refugia around coastal areas of North Island. The ENM also suggests refugia on the northeast coast of South Island and southeast coast of North Island and this prediction is verified by phylogeographic analysis, which shows a clade restricted to this region. Argosarchus horridus is also most likely a geographic parthenogen where males are much rarer at higher latitudes. The higher levels of genetic variation in northern, bisexual populations suggest southern and largely unisexual populations originated from southwardly expanding parthenogenetic lineages. Bayesian skyline analysis also provides support for a recent population size increase consistent with a large increase in geographic distribution in the late Pleistocene. These results exemplify the utility of integrating ENM and phylogeographic analysis in testing hypotheses on the origin of geographic parthenogenesis and effects of Pleistocene environmental change on biodiversity.     

Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.     

Niche divergence promotes rapid diversification of East African sky island white‐eyes (Aves: Zosteropidae)

The Eastern Afromontane biodiversity hotspot composed of highly fragmented forested highlands (sky islands) harbours exceptional diversity and endemicity, particularly within birds. To explain their elevated diversity within this region, models founded on niche conservatism have been offered, although detailed phylogeographic studies are limited to a few avian lineages. Here, we focus on the recent songbird genus Zosterops, represented by montane and lowland members, to test the roles of niche conservatism versus niche divergence in the diversification and colonization of East Africa's sky islands. The species‐rich white‐eyes are a typically homogeneous family with an exceptional colonizing ability, but in contrast to their diversity on oceanic islands, continental diversity is considered depauperate and has been largely neglected. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of ~140 taxa reveals extensive polyphyly among different montane populations of Z. poliogastrus. These larger endemic birds are shown to be more closely related to taxa with divergent habitat types, altitudinal distributions and dispersal abilities than they are to populations of restricted endemics that occur in neighbouring montane forest fragments. This repeated transition between lowland and highland habitats over time demonstrate that diversification of the focal group is explained by niche divergence. Our results also highlight an underestimation of diversity compared to morphological studies that has implications for their taxonomy and conservation. Molecular dating suggests that the spatially extensive African radiation arose exceptionally rapidly (1–2.5 Ma) during the fluctuating Plio‐Pleistocene climate, which may have provided the primary driver for lineage diversification.     

Phylogeography of the Northern Alligator Lizard (Squamata,Anguidae): Hidden diversity in a western endemic

Western North America includes the California Floristic Province and the Pacific Northwest, biologically diverse regions highlighted by a complex topography, geology, climate and history. A number of animals span these regions and show distinctive patterns of dispersal, vicariance and lineage diversification. Examining phylogeographic patterns in the fauna of this area aids in our understanding of the forces that have contributed to the generation and maintenance of regional biodiversity. Here, we investigate the biogeography and population structure of the Northern Alligator Lizard (Elgaria coerulea), a wide‐ranging anguid endemic to western North America. We sequenced two mtDNA fragments (ND2 and ND4) for 181 individuals across the range of the species and analysed these data with phylogenetic approaches to infer population and biogeographic history, and date major divergences within the taxon. We further used Bayesian clustering methods to assess major patterns of population structure and performed ecological niche modelling (ENM) to aid in our interpretation of geographic structure and diversification of E. coerulea lineages. Our phylogeographic examination of E. coerulea uncovered surprising diversity and structure, recovering 10 major lineages, each with substantial geographic substructure. While some divergences within the species are relatively old (Pliocene, 5.3–2.6 mya), most intraspecific variation appears to be of more recent origin (Pleistocene, 2.6 mya‐11,700 ya). Current diversity appears to have arisen in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and spread west and north since the Pliocene. Finally, our ENMs suggest that much of the Coast Ranges in California provided ideal habitat during the Last Glacial Maxima (LGM) that has since contracted dramatically and shifted northwards, whereas significant portions of the Sierra Nevada were unsuitable during the LGM and have since become more suitable. Interestingly, E. coerulea shares a number of genetic boundaries with other sympatric taxa, suggesting common historical events and geomorphological features have shaped the biota of this region.     

Immigrants and refugees: the importance of dispersal in mediating biotic attrition under climate change

Montane tropical rainforests are critically important areas for global bird diversity, but are projected to be highly vulnerable to contemporary climate change. Upslope shifts of lowland species may partially offset declines in upland species but also result in a process of lowland biotic attrition. This latter process is contingent on the absence of species adapted to novel warm climates, and isolation from pools of potential colonizers. In the Australian Wet Tropics, species distribution modelling has forecast critical declines in suitable environmental area for upland endemic birds, raising the question of the future role of both natural and assisted dispersal in species survival, but information is lacking for important neighbouring rainforest regions. Here we use expanded geographic coverage of data to model the realized distributions of 120 bird species found in north‐eastern Australian rainforest, including species from potential source locations in the north and recipient locations in the south. We reaffirm previous conclusions as to the high vulnerability of this fauna to global warming, and extend the list of species whose suitable environmental area is projected to decrease. However, we find that expansion of suitable area for some species currently restricted to northern rainforests has the potential to offset biotic attrition in lowland forest of the Australian Wet Tropics. By examining contrasting dispersal scenarios, we show that responses to climate change in this region may critically depend on dispersal limitation, as climate change shifts the suitable environmental envelopes of many species south into currently unsuitable habitats. For lowland and northern species, future change in vegetation connectivity across contemporary habitat barriers is likely to be an important mediator of climate change impacts. In contrast, upland species are projected to become increasingly isolated and restricted. Their survival is likely to be more dependent on the viability of assisted migration, and the emergence and persistence of suitable environments at recipient locations.     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.     

The shaping of genetic variation in edge‐of‐range populations under past and future climate change

With rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo‐modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model‐based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading‐edge populations for spearheading future range shifts.     

Combining population genetics,species distribution modelling and field assessments to understand a species vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is recognized as a major threat to biodiversity. Multidisciplinary approaches that combine population genetics and species distribution modelling to assess these threats and recommend conservation actions are critical but rare. Combined, these methods provide independent verification and a more compelling case for developing conservation actions. This study integrates these data streams together with field assessments and spatial analyses to develop future genetic resource management recommendations. The study species was Callistemon teretifolius (Needle Bottlebrush), a shrub species endemic to the Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges, South Australia, and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Chloroplast microsatellite and Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism data were combined with species distribution modelling (MaxEnt), spatial analysis and field assessment to evaluate climate change vulnerability. Two major genetic groups were identified (Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges). Populations in the Flinders Ranges, especially the Southern Flinders Ranges exhibited the highest genetic diversity, indicating a possible genetic refugium. Lower genetic diversity to the south in the Mount Lofty Ranges and north in the Gammon Ranges may be due to post‐glacial expansion into these areas from the Flinders Ranges or loss of alleles. Low levels of contemporary gene flow were identified, which suggests Callistemon teretifolius may have a limited capacity to respond to climate change through migration. Range restrictions were predicted for all future climates, especially in the north. It is likely that C. teretifolius will be adversely affected by climate change, due to limited gene flow, predicted range restriction and loss of suitable habitat. The Southern Flinders Ranges should be a priority for conservation because it contains the highest number of individuals and genetic diversity. We recommend monitoring and adaptive management involving restoration in the Southern Flinders Ranges, potentially incorporating genetic translocations from other areas to capture diversity, to assist C. teretifolius to adapt to climate change.     

Present,past and future of the European rock fern Asplenium fontanum: combining distribution modelling and population genetics to study the effect of climate change on geographic range and genetic diversity

Background and Aims

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic range of many plant species dramatically. Predicting this response will be critical to managing the conservation of plant resources and the effects of invasive species. The aim of this study was to predict the response of temperate homosporous ferns to climate change.

Methods

Genetic diversity and changes in distribution range were inferred for the diploid rock fern Asplenium fontanum along a South–North transect, extending from its putative last glacial maximum (LGM) refugia in southern France towards southern Germany and eastern-central France. This study reconciles observations from distribution models and phylogeographic analyses derived from plastid and nuclear diversity.

Key Results

Genetic diversity distribution and niche modelling propose that genetic diversity accumulates in the LGM climate refugium in southern France with the formation of a diversity gradient reflecting a slow, post-LGM range expansion towards the current distribution range. Evidence supports the fern''s preference for outcrossing, contradicting the expectation that homosporous ferns would populate new sites by single-spore colonization. Prediction of climate and distribution range change suggests that a dramatic loss of range and genetic diversity in this fern is possible. The observed migration is best described by the phalanx expansion model.

Conclusions

The results suggest that homosporous ferns reproducing preferentially by outcrossing accumulate genetic diversity primarily in LGM climate refugia and may be threatened if these areas disappear due to global climate change.