Association of seasonal reproductive patterns with changing food availability in an equatorial carnivore, the spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta).

Reproductive seasonality was examined in an equatorial population of free-living spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta) in Kenya. The study population was observed continuously for 10 years, during which time the dates of all births, conceptions, weanings, and cub deaths were recorded. Local prey abundance was estimated two to four times per month, and rainfall was recorded daily throughout the study period. Births occurred during every month of the year, but a distinct trough in births occurred from February to May. This trough occurred approximately one gestation period after the phase of the annual cycle during which prey animals were least abundant in the home range of the hyaenas, and conceptions occurred most frequently when food abundance was greatest. Neither rainfall nor cub mortality were correlated with births or conceptions. Thus, although spotted hyaenas are capable of breeding throughout the year, they exhibit a moderate degree of seasonality that most likely reflects responses to seasonal variation in energy availability.     

Is reversing the decline of Asian elephants in North American zoos possible? An individual‐based modeling approach

Demographic models are important tools for assessing population status, diagnosing potential causes of population decline, and comparing management strategies that might change population trajectory. The population of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) maintained in North American zoos has been declining for the past decade, and Wiese ([2000] Zoo. Biol. 19:299–309) predicted a continued decline in the population using an age‐based matrix model. We developed an individual‐based model to further explore the demographic issues of the population. Our model allowed us to quantitatively evaluate the prospects for slowing or reversing the decline given the potential management strategies of improving reproduction, reducing infant mortality, altering birth sex ratio, and recruiting additional individuals from outside the population. Our simulations showed that if current demographic trends continued, the population would continue to decline at 2%/year. It was possible to create sustainable simulations, but these required a large increase in the annual number of births produced. Increasing reproduction was the most effective strategy to slow the decline, whereas other management strategies had the most impact when combined with increases in reproduction. Almost all simulations resulted in large changes in population structure, with increases in the male population and decreases in the female population. Given the population's demographic issues, it will be difficult to either increase the population substantially or sustain it at its current size. Zoo Biol 25:201–218, 2006. © 2005 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Reproductive parameters of wild Trachypithecus leucocephalus: seasonality,infant mortality and interbirth interval

Understanding the reproductive parameters of endangered primate species is vital for evaluating the status of populations and developing adequate conservation measures. This study provides the first detailed analysis of the reproductive parameters of wild white‐headed langurs (Trachypithecus leucocephalus), based on demographic data collected over an 8‐year period in the Nongguan Karst Hills in Chongzuo County, Guangxi, China. From 1998 to 2002, a total of 133 live births were recorded in the population based on systematic censuses. Births occurred throughout the year, but the temporal pattern was highly correlated with seasonal variation in temperature and rainfall, with the birth peak coinciding with the dry and cold months of November–March. The average birthrate was 0.47±0.13 births per female per year and mortality for infants younger than 20 months was 15.8%. From 1998 to 2006, 14 females gave birth to 41 infants in four focal groups. The average age at first birth for female langurs was 5–6 years (n=5) and the interbirth interval (IBI) was 23.2±5.2 months (median=24.5 months, n=27). Infants are weaned at 19–21 months of age. The IBI for females with infant loss before weaning was significantly shorter than those for females whose infants survived. It appears that birth seasonality in the white‐headed langurs is influenced by seasonal changes in food availability. The timing of conceptions was found to coincide with peak food availability. The reproductive parameters for white‐headed langurs reported here are quite similar to those reported for other colobine species. One major difference is our observation of lower infant mortality in Trachypithecus. Am. J. Primatol. 71:558–566, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

A MODEL LIFE TABLE FOR BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS (TURSIOPS TRUNCATUS) FROM THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON SYSTEM, FLORIDA, U.S.A.

Data gathered from 220 stranded bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) in the Indian River Lagoon system, Florida, were used to derive a life table. Survivorship curves were fit to the data using Siler's competing-risk model and a maximum likelihood approach. Population growth was estimated to be between r = 0.0 and 0.046 based on the observed numbers of stranded dolphins. Variance in survival rates was estimated using an individual-based, age-structured population projection model. We estimate that the overall annual mortality rate for this population was 9.8% per year. Sex-specific differences in survivorship were apparent with females outliving males. The overall mortality curve resembles that of other large mammals, with high calf mortality and an exponentially increasing risk of senescent mortality. The inclusion of live-capture removals of individuals from this population did not significantly affect the estimation of survival parameters for most age classes.     

Annual Variation in Ecology and Reproduction of Wild Simakobu (Simias concolor)

Seasonal breeding in primates is related to the degree of environmental seasonality, particularly the availability and predictability of food. Southeast Asian species in general show moderate birth seasonality due to either low environmental seasonality or unpredictable fluctuations of mast-fruiting food resources. One Southeast Asian primate, the simakobu (Simias concolor), however, has been reported to be a strict seasonal breeder with births occurring in June and July only. It is unclear whether these observations are characteristic of the species or result from a sampling bias. To address this question, we documented the annual distribution of 11 births in eight groups of simakobu over two consecutive years at Pungut, an undisturbed site on Siberut Island, Indonesia. We assessed annual variation in ecology and reproduction via rainfall, temperature, food availability, feeding time, physical condition, conceptions, and births. Mean monthly temperature was nearly constant (26.3–27.1?°C), and monthly precipitation always high (219–432?mm). Although simakobu foods were abundant year-round, there were two fruit-feeding peaks in June and September. In contrast to previous reports, we documented births in 7?mo. Most births occurred in October (45?%), the wettest month of the year, and most conceptions in March and April, following a peak in unripe fruit availability. Although sample sizes are very small, females seemed to conceive when their physical condition was best, suggesting that simakobu time conceptions flexibly to the recovery of energy reserves. Across study sites, births occurred in 10 calendar months, indicating that simakobu reproduction is not strictly seasonal.     

Birth seasonality and calf mortality in a large population of Asian elephants

In seasonal environments, many species concentrate their reproduction in the time of year most likely to maximize offspring survival. Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) inhabit regions with seasonal climate, but females can still experience 16‐week reproductive cycles throughout the year. Whether female elephants nevertheless concentrate births on periods with maximum offspring survival prospects remains unknown. We investigated the seasonal timing of births, and effects of birth month on short‐ and long‐term mortality of Asian elephants, using a unique demographic data set of 2350 semicaptive, longitudinally monitored logging elephants from Myanmar experiencing seasonal variation in both workload and environmental conditions. Our results show variation in birth rate across the year, with 41% of births occurring between December and March. This corresponds to the cool, dry period and the beginning of the hot season, and to conceptions occurring during the resting, nonlogging period between February and June. Giving birth during the peak December to March period improves offspring survival, as the odds for survival between age 1 and 5 years are 44% higher for individuals born during the high birth rate period than those conceived during working months. Our results suggest that seasonal conditions, most likely maternal workload and/or climate, limit conception rate and calf survival in this population through effects on maternal stress, estrus cycles, or access to mates. This has implications for improving the birth rate and infant survival in captive populations by limiting workload of females of reproductive age. As working populations are currently unsustainable and supplemented through the capture of wild elephants, it is imperative to the conservation of Asian elephants to understand and alleviate the effects of seasonal conditions on vital rates in the working population in order to reduce the pressure for further capture from the wild.     

THE HOUSE SPARROW PASSER DOMESTICUS: POPULATION PROBLEMS

Two problems of House Sparrow populations are examined: the influence of habitat on numbers and the variation in a population of House Sparrows throughout the year. Available data on censuses in Great Britain enable the population to be estimated as 10 millions; censuses from several parts of the bird's range suggest that House Sparrow numbers are correlated with the human population, the ratio being 1: 5. The seasonal variation in composition of a population is estimated from observations over five years on House Sparrows breeding on a group of seventeen houses together with breeding and mortality data obtained from British Trust for Ornithology records. The population reaches a maximum at the end of July when it is slightly less than double that at the beginning of the breeding season. It is considered that numbers are controlled by food supply and the colonial behaviour of the bird.     

Population dynamics and conservation biology of the over-exploited Mediterranean red coral

The main goal of ecologists is nowadays to foster habitat and species conservation. Life-history tables and Leslie-Lewis transition matrices of population growth can be powerful tools suitable for the study of age-structured over harvested and/or endangered species dynamics. Red coral (Corallium rubrum L 1758) is a modular anthozoan endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. This slow growing, long lived species has been harvested since ancient times. In the last decades harvesting pressure increased and the overall Mediterranean yield reduced by 23. Moreover, mass mortality (putatively-linked to global warming) recently affected some coastal populations of this species. Red coral populations are discrete genetic units, gonochoric, composed by several overlapping generations and provided of a discrete (annual) reproduction. A population of this precious octocoral was studied in detail and its static life table was compiled. In order to simulate the trends overtime of the population under different environmental conditions and fishing pressures, a discrete, non-linear model, based on Leslie-Lewis transition matrix, was applied to the demographic data. In this model a bell-shaped curve, based on experimental data, representing the dependence of recruitment on adult colonies density was included. On these bases the stability of the population under different density, reproduction and mortality figures was analysed and simulations of the population trends overtime were set out. Some simulations were also carried out applying to the studied population the mortality values measured during the anomalous mass mortality event which really affected some red coral populations in 1999. The population under study showed high stability and a strong resilience capability, surviving to a 61% reduction of density, to a 27.7% reduction of reproduction rate and to an unselective harvesting affecting 95% of the reproductive colonies.     

Simulating density-dependent relationships in south Texas northern bobwhite populations

Density dependence influences northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) reproduction and overwinter mortality. However, the functional forms of these density-dependent relationships or the factors that influence them during the annual life cycle events of this bird are not clear. We used a systems analysis approach with a compartment model based on difference equations (Δt = 3 months) for bobwhites in South Texas to simulate population behavior using 16 different functional forms of density-dependent production and overwinter mortality. During the reproductive season, a weak linear density-dependent relationship resulted in the longest population persistence (up to 100.0 yr), whereas a reverse-sigmoid density-dependent relationship had the worst population persistence (2.5–3.5 yr). Regarding overwinter mortality, a sigmoid or weak linear density-dependent relationship and a weak linear or no density-dependent reproduction relationship had the longest population persistence (87.5–100.0 yr). Weak linear density-dependent reproduction with either sigmoid or weak linear overwinter mortality produced stable fall population trends. Our results indicated that density dependence may have a greater influence on overwinter survival of bobwhites than previously thought. Inclusion of density-dependent functional relationships that represent both density-dependent reproduction and overwinter mortality, were critical for our simulation model to function properly. Therefore, integrating density-dependent relationships for both reproductive and overwinter periods of the annual cycle of bobwhite life history events is essential for conducting realistic bobwhite population simulation analyses that can be used to test different management scenarios in an integrated and interdisciplinary manner. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Contrasting timing of parturition of chital Axis axis and gaur Bos gaurus in tropical South India – the role of body mass and seasonal forage quality

Seasonal variation in forage availability and quality is understood to affect the annual timing of parturition in large herbivores. In India–where seasonal monsoonal rains define variation in forage availability and quality–chital Axis axis exhibit stronger seasonality in parturition than the larger gaur Bos gaurus. We hypothesized that this difference can be explained by forage requirements determined by body mass. We developed a model to simulate changes in leaf biomass and nitrogen content based on plant available moisture and nutrients, and calibrated our model with field data. Our results show that the minimum forage nitrogen content required by lactating gaur was available throughout the year, but that required by lactating chital was available for less than 40% of the year, i.e. during the early wet season, which coincides with the annual peak period of chital births. The three to four month spread of chital births, which begins in the dry season, implies that the period of highest quality is also important for females to replenish maternal reserves for future reproduction and help maximize the growth rate of neonates. This spread also indicates low synchrony of chital births and suggests that predator swamping was less important in influencing their timing of parturition. As monsoonal rain exhibits annual temporal variation, we analyzed our model under different rainfall patterns while keeping the total annual rainfall constant. We found that the difference between the durations of how long forage quality is available to satisfy the minimum requirements of lactating gaur and lactating chital is similar for all simulated patterns. This insensitivity to variable rainfall patterns lends support to our hypothesis that forage requirements determined by body mass is one plausible explanation for the variation in parturition strategies among large herbivores species.     

Survivorship across the annual cycle of a migratory passerine,the willow flycatcher

Annual survivorship in migratory birds is a product of survival across the different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. breeding, wintering, and migration), and may vary substantially among these periods. Determining which periods have the highest mortality, and thus are potentially limiting a population, is important especially for species of conservation concern. To estimate survival probabilities of the willow flycatcher Empidonax traillii in each of the different periods, we combined demographic data from a 10‐year breeding season study with that from a 5‐year wintering grounds study. Estimates of annual apparent survival for breeding and wintering periods were nearly identical (65–66%), as were estimates of monthly apparent survival for both breeding and wintering stationary periods (98–99%). Because flycatchers spend at least half the year on the wintering grounds, overall apparent survivorship was lower (88%) on the wintering grounds than on the breeding grounds (97%). The migratory period had the highest mortality rate, accounting for 62% of the estimated annual mortality even though it comprises only one quarter or less of the annual cycle. The migratory period in the willow flycatcher and many other neotropical migrants is poorly understood, and further research is needed to identify sources of mortality during this crucial period.     

The effects of background mortality on optimal reproduction in a seasonal environment

We consider optimal annual routines of reproductive behaviour in a seasonal environment. In our model the condition of the organism is adversely affected by hard work, but can recover during easy periods. Our analysis concentrates on the effects of background mortality (i.e., mortality that cannot be avoided) on the optimal strategy and how often an organism following this strategy breeds. In particular, we are concerned with whether reproduction occurs at specific times of year (entrained to the annual cycle), and if so then how many reproductive bouts occur per year. We find that an increase in background mortality can have various effects. If the animal is entrained to the annual cycle and has one breeding attempt per year, then breeding tends to occur earlier and there may be two breeding attempts per season. Another possible outcome is that breeding is no longer entrained. If the animal is entrained but sometimes skips reproduction so that it does not breed every year, then an increase in mortality may make it more likely that the animal breeds every year. We show that as background mortality increases the resultant increase in the frequency of breeding contributes to the increase in annual mortality. We also explore the effects of mortality on the timing of reproduction within a year, highlighting the tension between the interests of the parent and that of the young.     

Demographic components of seasonality of pregnancy

Previous studies of the seasonality of pregnancy and birth have typically been based on monthly numbers or proportions of pregnancies or births (i.e. their distribution throughout the year) without any explicit accounting of the size of the population actually at risk of pregnancy by month. From data on monthly populations at risk and monthly probabilities of pregnancy this paper determines the relative contribution of each component to the monthly distribution of pregnancies. The data come from the National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle III. While there is some seasonality in the size of the at-risk population, it contributes little to the overall monthly variation of pregnancy, which is determined mainly by seasonality of pregnancy probability (fecundability).     

Elasticity Analysis of Green Sturgeon Life History

I provide an analysis of a simplified life history model for green sturgeon, Acipenser medirostris, based on published and recent estimates of reproduction and growth rates and survival rates from life history theory. The deterministic life cycle models serve as a tool for qualitative analysis of the impacts of perturbations on green sturgeon, including harvest regulations based on minimum and maximum size limits (“slot limits”). Elasticity analysis of models with two alternative age–length relationships give similar results, with a high sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in the survival rate of subadult and adult fish. A dramatic increase in the survival of young of the year sturgeon or annual egg production is required to compensate for relatively low levels of fishing mortality. Peak reproductive values occur from ages 25 to 40. An increase or decrease in the maximum and minimum size limits can have a profound effect on the elasticity of population growth to changes in the annual survival rate of age classes specified by the slot, due to changes in the number of age classes of subadults and adults that are available for harvest. This analysis provides managers with a simple tool to assess the relative impacts of alternative harvest regulations. In general, green sturgeon follow life history patterns similar to other sturgeon, but species-specific demographic information is needed to produce more complex assessment and viability analysis models.     

Density-dependence and winter weather as factors affecting the size of a population of Golden Plovers Pluvialis apricaria

The results of annual censuses of a Golden Plover population in the Peak District, covering 24 years, are analysed. A strong density-dependent effect of the population in the previous year explained 26.7% of the variation in population growth. An additional 15.3% of the variation was accounted for by the severity of winter weather, as measured by mean monthly air temperature for November to February. There was no significant effect of weather during the breeding season upon Golden Plover population size, implying that any effects which spring and summer temperature or rainfall may have upon fledging success are masked by other factors. The importance of these results is discussed in the light of work on other wader species, and possible declines in Golden Plover numbers.     

Heliogeophysical correlates of early biodemographic variables in the south of western Siberia

In order to verify associations between solar and geomagnetic activities and perinatal variables the monthly distributions of population characters in Novosibirsk region over the period 1980-2001 were compared by stepwise correlation analysis with monthly averaged physical parameters at lags from 0 to 10 months. Three indices used were as follows: the number of sunspots, solar flux at 10.7 cm wavelength and Ak index measured at local ionospheric station near Novosibirsk city. Official data on the number of single and multiple live births, stillbirths and infant deaths at the age under one year by the type of population and sex were provided by State Statistical Committee. All three physical parameters positively correlated with the number of single births and infant mortality rate and negatively with twin births in both populations, urban and rural, irrespective of lags. The direct association between Ak index and relative number of stillbirths in urban setting was mostly pronounced at a lag of 5 months. The number of live births increased along with Ak index due to the enhanced proportion of female births whereas the number of stillbirths after the increase in solar and geomagnetic activities elevated because of male deaths.     

When and where to count? Implications of migratory connectivity and nonbreeding distribution to population censuses in a migratory bird population

Migratory connectivity is a metric of the co-occurrence of migratory animals originating from different breeding sites, and like their spatial dispersion, can vary substantially during the annual cycle. Together, both these properties affect the optimal times and sites of population censusing. We tracked taiga bean geese (Anser fabalis fabalis) during 2014–2021 to study their migratory connectivity and nonbreeding movements and determine optimal periods to assess the size of their main flyway population. We also compared available census data with tracking data, to examine how well two existing censuses covered the population. Daily Mantel's correlation between breeding and nonbreeding sites lay between 0 and 0.5 during most of the nonbreeding season, implying birds from different breeding areas were not strongly separated at other times in the annual cycle. However, the connectivity was higher among birds from the westernmost breeding areas compared to the birds breeding elsewhere. Daily Minimum Convex Polygons showed tracked birds were highly aggregated at census times, confirming their utility. The number of tracked birds absent at count sites during the censuses however exceeded numbers double-counted at several sites, indicating that censuses might have underestimated the true population size. Our results show that connectivity can vary in different times during the nonbreeding period, and should be studied throughout the annual cycle. Our results also confirm previous studies, which have found that estimates using marked individuals usually produce higher population size estimates than total counts. This should be considered when using total counts to assess population sizes in the future.     

Partial life cycle analysis: a model for pre-breeding census data

Matrix population models have become popular tools in research areas as diverse as population dynamics, life history theory, wildlife management, and conservation biology. Two classes of matrix models are commonly used for demographic analysis of age‐structured populations: age‐structured (Leslie) matrix models, which require age‐specific demographic data, and partial life cycle models, which can be parameterized with partial demographic data. Partial life cycle models are easier to parameterize because data needed to estimate parameters for these models are collected much more easily than those needed to estimate age‐specific demographic parameters. Partial life cycle models also allow evaluation of the sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in ages at first and last reproduction, which cannot be done with age‐structured models. Timing of censuses relative to the birth‐pulse is an important consideration in discrete‐time population models but most existing partial life cycle models do not address this issue, nor do they allow fractional values of variables such as ages at first and last reproduction. Here, we fully develop a partial life cycle model appropriate for situations in which demographic data are collected immediately before the birth‐pulse (pre‐breeding census). Our pre‐breeding census partial life cycle model can be fully parameterized with five variables (age at maturity, age at last reproduction, juvenile survival rate, adult survival rate, and fertility), and it has some important applications even when age‐specific demographic data are available (e.g., perturbation analysis involving ages at first and last reproduction). We have extended the model to allow non‐integer values of ages at first and last reproduction, derived formulae for sensitivity analyses, and presented methods for estimating parameters for our pre‐breeding census partial life cycle model. We applied the age‐structured Leslie matrix model and our pre‐breeding census partial life cycle model to demographic data for several species of mammals. Our results suggest that dynamical properties of the age‐structured model are generally retained in our partial life cycle model, and that our pre‐breeding census partial life cycle model is an excellent proxy for the age‐structured Leslie matrix model.     

The natural regulation of buffalo populations in East Africa: III. Population trends and mortality*

Analysis is carried out on the population data obtained from censuses and estimates of fertility and recruitment for the years 1965–1972, From the analysis, adult mortality is the only detectable reduction which acts as a negative feedback on the population, and is the only one needed to regulate the population in a way similar to the observed population trends. From a frequency distribution of ages at death, an approximate composite life table is constructed. This shows that males and females have similar age-specific mortalities until old age, but then males survive relatively better. Information on the causes of mortality indicate that the regulating adult mortality is caused in part by undernutrition, which in turn is due to food limitation rather than to social and physiological factors. Predation causes only a small part of the annual adult mortality, and its effect is swamped by other factors. Diseases play an important part as a primary factor in juvenile mortality but not in adult mortality because of the development of immunity. However, both disease and predation are important as secondary agents killing adults already weakened by moderate undernutrition. It is suggested that they play an essential role by hastening the population's response to changes in the food supply, and hence dampening oscillations that might develop in population and resource.