Population dynamics of Agrimonia eupatoria and Geum rivale,two perennial grassland species

The population dynamics of two polycarpic perennials,Agrimonia eupatoria and Geum rivale, characteristic ofsemi-natural grasslands in Scandinavia, were examined in south-eastern Sweden.The perennial forbs were studied for several years in two populations each,located in habitats characteristic for the species in the study area.Demographic transition probabilities varied significantly between populationsand among years for the species. Transition matrix modelling yielded-values (population growth rates) that ranged from 0.89 to 1.14 forA. eupatoria and from 0.94 to 1.04 for G.rivale. The elasticity analysis showed that stasis in the adultstageclasses contributed most to . The life-table response experimentanalysis produced similar results as the elasticity analysis, where stasistogether with progression in the adult stage classes made a large contributionto the observed spatial variation in . Simulations of expected time toextinction were in the order of centuries for the study populations. Seedlingrecruitment was enhanced by seed addition and small scale disturbance inpopulations. For the intermediately abundant and more patchily distributedA. eupatoria, a regional survey of local populations wasconducted in the study area which revealed that most populations wererelativelysmall (< 100 individuals) and restricted to grassland fragments in roadverges. Furthermore, an attempt was made to estimate fruit dispersal from localpopulations.     

Power, precaution, Type II error and sampling design in assessment of environmental impacts

Increasingly, environmental managers attempt to incorporate precautionary principles into decision making. In any quantitative analysis of impacts, precaution is closely related to the power of the analysis to detect an impact. Designs of sampling to detect impacts are, however, complex because of natural spatial and temporal variability and the intrinsic nature of the statistical interactions which define impacts. Here, pulse and press responses and impacts that affect time courses (temporal variance) were modelled to determine the influences of increasing temporal replication—sampling more times in each of several longer periods before and again after an impact.Increasing the number of control or reference locations and number of replicate sample units at each time and place of sampling investigated the influence of spatial replication on power. From numerous scenarios of impacts, with or without natural spatial and temporal interactions (i.e. not caused by an impact), general recommendations are possible. Detecting press impacts requires maximal numbers of control locations. Shorter-term pulse impacts are best detected when the number of periods sampled is maximized. Impacts causing changes in temporal variance are most likely to be detected by sampling with the greatest possible number of periods or times within periods.To allow precautionary decision making, the type of predicted impact should be specified with its magnitude and duration. Only then can sampling be designed to be powerful, thereby allowing precautionary concepts to be invoked.     

Life history and population size variability in a relict plant. Different routes towards long-term persistence

A central tenet of conservation biology is that population size affects the persistence of populations. However, many narrow endemic species combine small population ranges and sizes with long persistence, thereby challenging this tenet. I examined the performance of three different-sized populations of Petrocoptis pseudoviscosa (Caryophyllaceae), a palaeoendemic rupicolous herb distributed along a small valley in the Spanish Pyrenees. Reproductive and demographic parameters were recorded over 6 years, and deterministic and stochastic matrix models were constructed to explore population dynamics and extinction risk. Populations differed greatly in structure, fecundity, recruitment, survival rate, and life span. Strong differentiation in life-history parameters and their temporal variability resulted in differential population vulnerability under current conditions and simulated global changes such as habitat fragmentation or higher climatic fluctuations. This study provides insights into the capacity of narrow endemics to survive both at extreme environmental conditions and at small population sizes. When dealing with species conservation, the population size–extinction risk relationship may be too simplistic for ancient, ecologically restricted organisms, and some knowledge of life history may be most important to assess their future.     

Demographic vulnerability of the clonal and endangered meadow thistle

For effective management of endangered species it is pivotal to understand why a species is endangered and which key life cycle components are involved in its response to environmental changes. Our objective was to investigate the response of rosettes of the redlisted clonal herb Cirsium dissectum to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, which threatens its populations, and the consequences of these responses for its population dynamics. We constructed matrix population models with demographic data from three populations and four annual transitions and we decomposed the spatiotemporal variation in projected population growth rates into contributions from life cycle components. These patterns were compared with below-ground rosette dynamics in different fields, and with the below- and above-ground rosette dynamics in a garden experiment with nutrient enrichment and competing grasses. The decomposition analysis revealed that increased clonal rosette formation and decreased rosette survival were driving the spatial variation in the population growth rate. Excavating the below-ground rhizome network revealed a higher rosette turn-over in experimentally fertilized garden plots, which not only resulted in increased plot-level extinction, but also in increased spread of the clonal offspring. This supported the observed trend among field populations: rosette formation trades off with rosette survival. Surviving seedlings were only found in areas where the topsoil had been removed. The endangered C. dissectum is vulnerable when its habitat becomes more productive, because this species does not have the necessary capability to build up biomass. Small-scale disturbances such as created by sod-cutting or trampling cattle are essential for seedling establishment and necessary to render the explorative strategy of rhizomatous clonal spread successful.     

Notes on the Scottish Flora

Summary

Pollen analytical investigations are described from a site on the Pass of Drumochter in the central Grampian Highlands. Three pollen assemblage zones were identified in the profile which spans the mid- and late-Postglacial periods. The earliest vegetational record is of birch and hazel woodland, which was in turn succeeded by the establishment of pine forest, possibly around 7000 B.P. Declining arboreal pollen percentages and increased values for open-habitat taxa in the upper reaches of the profile reflect the impact of Neolithic man in the area, with the destruction of the forests, and the spread of dwarf shrub heath and heather moor across formerly wooded hillsides.     

Permanence of single-species stage-structured models

In this paper, we consider population survival by using single-species stage-structured models. As a criterion of population survival, we employ the mathematical notation of permanence. Permanence of stage-structured models has already been studied by Cushing (1998). We generalize his result of permanence, and obtain a condition which guarantees that population survives. The condition is applicable to a wide class of stage-structured models. In particular, we apply our results to the Neubert-Caswell model, which is a typical stage-structured model, and obtain a condition for population survival of the model.The research is partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture, Japan, under Grant in Aid for Scientific Research (A) 13304006.     

Population life-cycle and stand structure in dense and open stands of the introduced tall herb <Emphasis Type="Italic">Heracleum mantegazzianum</Emphasis>

Populations of the introduced Heracleum mantegazzianum consist of dense central stands, which gradually give way to open stands towards the margins. To analyse whether open stands are due to unsuitable conditions or represent the invading front for further spread, we studied life-cycle, population dynamics, stand structure and soil conditions of open and dense stands over two transition periods. Populations decreased during the first interval but increased after the extremely dry and warm summer of 2003 during the second interval. Open stands had shorter generation times, lower height, smaller proportions of small individuals and were less in equilibrium with the environment than dense stands. In open stands, growth to higher stages was most important, while in dense stands delayed development (self-loops) had a strong effect on population growth; stasis and fecundity contributed most to the difference in λ between stand types. By petiole extension H. mantegazzianum may raise its leaves just above the resident vegetation. Therefore, younger stages develop faster in open stands, whereas strong competition by conspecific adults leads to longer generation times and a higher proportion of small individuals in dense stands. Disturbance due to extreme climatic conditions in summer 2003 equalised population dynamics of both stand types. Life-cycle variation between stand types makes it difficult to infer simple management rules. However, our data suggest that small and/or open stands of H. mantegazzianum may eventually serve as initials for further spread after land-use changes, whereas dense stands are stable and may represent sources of propagules.     

Statistical power in physical anthropology: a technical report

A statistical power analysis of The American Journal of Physical Anthropology (Volume 44, 1976) was conducted. Twenty-five articles, which included 3,304 major significance tests, constituted the final sample. Resultant power estimates of 0.38, 0.62, and 0.81, corresponding to small, medium, and large population effects respectively, were obtained. Although the medium effect size estimate falls short of the recommended 0.80 level, the statistical power of physical anthropological research fares well relative to several of the social scientific fields of inquiry.