The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China

Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species’ phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39–43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71–85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was ?3.93 to 3.30 days °C^?1 and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C^?1, respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially.     

Simulating changes in the leaf unfolding time of 20 plant species in China over the twenty-first century

Recent shifts in phenology reflect the biological response to current climate change. Aiming to enhance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated and validated spatio-temporal models of first leaf date (FLD) for 20 broadleaved deciduous plants in China. Using daily meteorological data from the Chinese Meteorological Administration and the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) created using three IPCC scenarios (A2, A1B and B1), we described the FLD time series of each species over the past 50 years, extrapolating from these results to simulate estimated FLD changes for each species during the twenty-first century. Model validation suggests that our spatio-temporal models can simulate FLD accurately with R ² (explained variance) >0.60. Model simulations show that, from 1952 to 2007, the FLD in China advanced at a rate of ?1.14 days decade^?1 on average. Furthermore, changes in FLD showed noticeable variation between regions, with clearer advances observed in the north than in the south of the country. The model indicates that the advances in FLD observed from 1952–2007 in China will continue over the twenty-first century, although significant differences among species and different climate scenarios are expected. The average trend of FLD advance in China during the twenty-first century is modeled as being ?1.92 days decade^?1 under the A2 scenario, ?1.10 days decade^?1 under the A1B scenario and ?0.74 days decade^?1 under the B2 scenario. The spatial pattern of FLD change for the period 2011–2099 is modeled as being similar but showing some difference from patterns in the 1952–2007 period. At the interspecific level, early-leafing species were found to show a greater advance in FLD, while species with larger distributions tended to show a weaker advance in FLD. These simulated changes in phenology may have significant implications for plant distribution as well as ecosystem structure and function.     

气候变暖背景下青藏高原草本植物物候变化空间换时间预测

气候变暖背景下的植物物候变化广受关注, 然而常用的植物物候变化预测模型未充分考虑植物对环境的适应性, 给预测结果带来了较大的不确定性。该文基于2002-2011年青藏高原10个站点的地面物候观测资料以及年平均气温数据, 对空间换时间模型预测车前(Plantago asiatica)和蒲公英(Taraxacum mongolicum)各主要物候事件(展叶始期、开花始期和黄枯普遍期)变化的可行性及其在升温背景下的变化规律进行了分析。首先利用不同海拔高度的气温和物候事件分别与地理因子(经度、纬度和海拔)建立多元线性回归模型, 然后在此基础上剔除经度和纬度的影响, 单独考察海拔变化所引起的气温与植物物候变化, 最后以海拔高度作为桥梁来考察物候变化与温度变化的关系。结果表明, 采用各站点对应的海拔高度来模拟年平均气温空间差异的R²均大于0.89, 表明海拔梯度可以用来反映时间尺度下的年际温度变化; 车前和蒲公英各物候事件发生日期拟合值均与海拔高度变化关系显著, R²均大于0.70, 表明海拔变化是影响它们各物候事件变化的主要地理因子; 在物候事件发生日期拟合值和年平均气温拟合值的回归方程中, R²均大于0.93, 说明基于不同海拔高度模拟得到的年平均气温变化可以对时间尺度上车前和蒲公英的物候事件变化进行预测。空间换时间预测表明, 温度每升高1 ℃, 车前展叶始期和开花始期分别提前5.1和5.4 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟4.8 d; 蒲公英展叶始期和开花始期分别提前6.5和7.8 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟6.7 d。     

Predicting phenology shifts of herbaceous plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming with the space-for-time method

气候变暖背景下的植物物候变化广受关注, 然而常用的植物物候变化预测模型未充分考虑植物对环境的适应性, 给预测结果带来了较大的不确定性。该文基于2002-2011年青藏高原10个站点的地面物候观测资料以及年平均气温数据, 对空间换时间模型预测车前(Plantago asiatica)和蒲公英(Taraxacum mongolicum)各主要物候事件(展叶始期、开花始期和黄枯普遍期)变化的可行性及其在升温背景下的变化规律进行了分析。首先利用不同海拔高度的气温和物候事件分别与地理因子(经度、纬度和海拔)建立多元线性回归模型, 然后在此基础上剔除经度和纬度的影响, 单独考察海拔变化所引起的气温与植物物候变化, 最后以海拔高度作为桥梁来考察物候变化与温度变化的关系。结果表明, 采用各站点对应的海拔高度来模拟年平均气温空间差异的R²均大于0.89, 表明海拔梯度可以用来反映时间尺度下的年际温度变化; 车前和蒲公英各物候事件发生日期拟合值均与海拔高度变化关系显著, R²均大于0.70, 表明海拔变化是影响它们各物候事件变化的主要地理因子; 在物候事件发生日期拟合值和年平均气温拟合值的回归方程中, R²均大于0.93, 说明基于不同海拔高度模拟得到的年平均气温变化可以对时间尺度上车前和蒲公英的物候事件变化进行预测。空间换时间预测表明, 温度每升高1 ℃, 车前展叶始期和开花始期分别提前5.1和5.4 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟4.8 d; 蒲公英展叶始期和开花始期分别提前6.5和7.8 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟6.7 d。     

西安和宝鸡木本植物花期物候变化及温度敏感度对比

植物物候是指示生态系统对气候变化响应的重要证据。已有研究多基于代表性站点的物候观测数据研究物候特征及其对气候变化的响应规律。同一气候区内,不同站点的物候变化及对温度变化响应的敏感度是否一致仍需深入探讨。本文选择同属于暖温带湿润区汾渭平原气候区的西安和宝鸡为研究区,利用"中国物候观测网"在两个站点21个共有物种的开花始期和开花末期数据,比较了1987—2016年两站点各植物花期物候变化特征及其对温度变化响应的敏感度差异。结果表明,西安和宝鸡各物种的开花始期和开花末期均以提前趋势为主。大部分物种开花始期在西安的提前趋势(平均趋势-0.57 d/a)明显强于在宝鸡的提前趋势(平均趋势-0.29 d/a),但开花末期趋势差异不显著。除紫薇和迎春的敏感度差异较大外,其他物种开花始期和开花末期的温度敏感度在两站点间非常接近,无显著差异。由此可见,在同一气候区的不同站点,因增温幅度不同,植物的始花期变化存在较大差异,不能用单站点的物候变化反映整个气候区的物候变化。但同一植物在单站点的温度敏感度可以较好的反映同一气候区其他站点的植物物候-气候关系。本文研究结果可为利用有限站点的物候观测数据分析区域物候...     

Changes of the Flowering Time of Trees in Spring by Climate Change in Seoul,South Korea

Flowering onset has attracted much attention in ecological research as an important indicator of climate change. Generally, warmer temperatures advance flowering onset. The effect of climate warming on flowering onset is more pronounced in spring because the difference between atmospheric and water temperatures creates more rapid convection than in other seasons. We analyzed the correlation between 73 species of spring woody plants in Hongneung Arboretum in Seoul, South Korea and the spring minimum temperature and average precipitation over the past 50 years (1968–2018). The spring minimum temperature and average precipitation have increased over the past 50 years, resulting in the advance of the first flowing date (FFD) in all 73 species by 8.5 days on average. A comparison of FFD changes over time by dividing the survey period into three time periods confirmed the advance of the FFD in 50 species (68% of investigated species) by 11.1 days on average in both Period 2 (1999–2008) and Period 3 (2009–2018) relative to Period 1 (1968–1975). Additionally, a delay of the FFD by 3.2 days on average was observed in 8 species. The FFD of Lonicera chrysantha (Caprifoliaceae) advanced by over 40 days and was highly correlated with the increased spring minimum temperature. Analysis of the sensitivity of plant responses to climate change revealed that a temperature rise of 1°C was associated with an FFD advance of 1.2 days in all species. The species that was most sensitive to temperature change was Spiraea pubescens for. leiocarpa (Rosaceae), whose FFD advanced by 4.7 days per 1°C temperature rise. Each increase in precipitation by 1 mm was found to result in a 0.1-day advance of the FFD of all species. Prunus tomentosa (Rosaceae) was the most sensitive species, that advanced by 2.6 days for each 1 mm increase in precipitation. Thus, for all species, the FFD was more sensitive to the change in temperature than in precipitation. Assuming that the current greenhouse gas (GHGs) emission levels or atmospheric CO₂ concentration is maintained, Seoul’s spring minimum temperature is projected to rise by 2.7°C over the next 50 years. Accordingly, considering only the global temperature change, the mean FFD of the study’s 73 species is projected to advance by an additional 3.4 days.     

Traits and climate are associated with first flowering day in herbaceous species along elevational gradients

Phenological responses to changing temperatures are known as “fingerprints of climate change,” yet these reactions are highly species specific. To assess whether different plant characteristics are related to these species‐specific responses in flowering phenology, we observed the first flowering day (FFD) of ten herbaceous species along two elevational gradients, representing temperature gradients. On the same populations, we measured traits being associated with (1) plant performance (specific leaf area), (2) leaf biochemistry (leaf C, N, P, K, and Mg content), and (3) water‐use efficiency (stomatal pore area index and stable carbon isotopes concentration). We found that as elevation increased, FFD was delayed for all species with a highly species‐specific rate. Populations at higher elevations needed less temperature accumulation to start flowering than populations of the same species at lower elevations. Surprisingly, traits explained a higher proportion of variance in the phenological data than elevation. Earlier flowering was associated with higher water‐use efficiency, higher leaf C, and lower leaf P content. In addition to that, the intensity of shifts in FFD was related to leaf N and K. These results propose that traits have a high potential in explaining phenological variations, which even surpassed the effect of temperature changes in our study. Therefore, they have a high potential to be included in future analyses studying the effects of climate change and will help to improve predictions of vegetation changes.     

气候波动对西安39种木本植物展叶始期及其积温需求的影响

过去几十年来暖春等异常气候事件发生的频次和强度显著增加, 使植物春季物候期发生了明显变化。但异常气候事件对植物春季物候积温需求的影响仍不清楚, 限制了对未来物候变化预测精度的提升。该研究利用西安植物园1963-2018年39种木本植物的展叶始期和相应气象数据, 首先根据3-4月平均气温划分了偏冷年、正常年和偏暖年, 对比了冷暖年相对于正常年的展叶始期变化。其次, 利用3种积温算法计算了各植物逐年的展叶始期积温需求, 比较了积温需求在冷暖年和正常年的差异。最后, 评估了传统积温模型在模拟偏冷或偏暖年展叶始期时的误差。结果表明, 所有植物的展叶始期在偏暖年比正常年平均早8.6天, 而在偏冷年平均晚8.2天。在偏暖年, 大多数物种展叶始期的积温需求(以5 ℃为阈值, 平均257.5度日)显著高于正常年(平均195.1度日); 在偏冷年的积温需求(平均168.0度日)低于正常年, 但在统计上差异不显著。就不同类群而言, 古老类群相对于年轻类群在偏冷年的推迟天数更多, 积温需求变化较小, 但在偏暖年无显著差异。不同生活型间物候与积温需求变化也无显著差异。造成偏暖年积温需求增加的可能原因是偏暖年冬季气温较高, 导致植物受到的冷激程度减轻, 从而抑制了后续的展叶。在正常年, 积温模型模拟木本植物展叶始期的平均误差仅为0.4-1.9天。在偏暖年和偏冷年, 模拟值分别比观测值平均早4.1天和晚3.0天。因此在预测未来物候变化时, 需要考虑气候波动条件下的积温需求变化。     

Periodicity of leaf growth and leaf dry mass changes in the evergreen and deciduous species of Southern Assam,India

The study described patterns of leaf dry mass change, leaf mass per area (LMA), relative growth rate and leaf life span (LL) for 14 evergreen and 7 deciduous species of a tropical forest of Southern Assam, India. Leaf expansion in both the groups was, in general, completed before June (i.e. well before the onset of monsoon rains). Although leaf dry mass during leaf initiation phase was significantly higher (P < 0.01) in evergreen species than in deciduous species, at the time of full leaf expansion, average leaf dry mass relative to the peak leaf dry mass, realised by the evergreen species was lower (66 %) than for deciduous species (76 %). Leaf dry mass increase in both groups continued after leaf full expansion. Evergreen species had a longer leaf dry mass steady phase than deciduous species (2–6 vs 2–3 months). Average LMA of mature leaves for evergreen species (77.43 g m^?2) was significantly greater than that of deciduous species (48.43 g m^?2). LL ranged from 165 days in Gmelina arborea (deciduous) to 509 days in Dipterocarpus turbinatus (evergreen). LMA was correlated positively with LL, indicating that evergreen species with higher leaf construction cost retain leaves for longer period to pay back. The average leaf dry mass loss before leaf shedding was greater (P < 0.01) for deciduous species (30.29 %) than for evergreen species (18.31 %). Although the cost of leaf construction in deciduous species was lower than for evergreen species, they replace leaves at a faster rate. Deciduous species perhaps compensate the cost involved in faster leaf replacement through higher reabsorption of dry mass during senescence, which they remobilise to initiate growth in the following spring when soil resources remain limiting.     

Variation in evergreen and deciduous species leaf phenology in Assam, India

In the present study phenological activities such as leaf and shoot growth, leaf pool size and leaf fall were observed for 3 years (March 2007–March 2010) in 19 tree species (13 evergreen and 6 deciduous species) in a wet tropical forest in Assam, India. The study area receives total annual average rainfall of 2,318 mm of which most rain fall (>70 %) occurs during June–September. Both the plant groups varied significantly on most of the shoot and leaf phenology parameters. In general, growth in deciduous species initiated before the evergreen species and showed a rapid shoot growth, leaf recruitment and leaf expansion compared to evergreen species. Leaf recruitment period was significantly different between evergreen (4.2 months) and deciduous species (6.8 months). Shoot elongation rate was also significantly different for evergreen and deciduous species (0.09 vs. 0.14 cm day^?1 shoot^?1). Leaf number per shoot was greater for deciduous species than for evergreen species (34 vs. 16 leaves). The average leaf life span of evergreen species (328 ± 32 days) was significantly greater than that of deciduous species (205 ± 16 days). The leaf fall in deciduous species was concentrated during the winter season (Nov–Feb), whereas evergreens retained their leaves until the next growing season. Although the climate of the study area supports evergreen forests, the strategies of the deciduous species such as faster leaf recruitment rate, longer leaf recruitment time, faster shoot elongation rate during favorable growing season and short leaf life span perhaps allows them to coexist with evergreen species that have the liberty to photosynthesize round the year. Variations in phenological strategies perhaps help to reduce the competition among evergreen and deciduous species for resources in these forests and enable the coexistence of both the groups.