Birch pollen abundance in Reykjavík,Iceland

A ten-year birch pollen record for Reykjavík, Iceland, has been analyzed with respect to fluctuations in the annual pollen sum, the starting date, and the duration of the birch pollen season. A three-year cycle is observed for the annual birch pollen sum, which could be of value in predicting the severity of the next birch pollen season. The annual birch pollen sum is regressed on six climatic variables, only one of which turned out to be statistically significant. The number of days with temperatures above +7.5°C in the year of inflorescence initiation shows a significant correlation with the annual birch pollen sum of the following flowering year (P =0.009). For the starting date of the birch pollen season the accumulated thermal sum on May 15 is shown to have the best predictive value, estimating it to within one week. The mean duration of the birch pollen season in southwestern Iceland is 17 days, starting May 29 and ending June 14.     

Integration of flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology: analysis of their spatial and temporal coherence in Germany (1992–1999)

We studied the possibility of integrating flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology in Germany. Data were analyzed for three pollen types (Betula, Poaceae, Artemisia) at 51 stations with pollen traps, and corresponding phenological flowering dates for 400 adjacent stations (< 25 km) for the years 1992–1993 and 1997–1999. The spatial and temporal coherence of these data sets was investigated by comparing start and peak of the pollen season with local minima and means of plant flowering. Our study revealed that start of birch pollen season occurred on average 5.7 days earlier than local birch flowering. For mugwort and grass, the pollen season started on average after local flowering was observed; mugwort pollen was found 4.8 days later and grass pollen season started almost on the same day (0.6 days later) as local flowering. Whereas the peak of the birch pollen season coincided with the mean flowering dates (0.4 days later), the pollen peaks of the other two species took place much later. On average, the peak of mugwort pollen occurred 15.4 days later than mean local flowering, the peak of grass pollen catches followed 22.6 days after local flowering. The study revealed a great temporal divergence between pollen and flowering dates with an irregular spatial pattern across Germany. Not all pollen catches could be explained by local vegetation flowering. Possible reasons include long-distance transport, pollen contributions of other than phenologically observed species and methodological constraints. The results suggest that further research is needed before using flowering dates in phenology to extrapolate pollen counts.     

Airborne pollen in Nuuk, Greenland, and the importance of meteorological parameters

To describe the season of airborne pollen ofbirch and grass in the city of Nuuk, Greenland,pollen concentrations were measured dailythroughout the pollen seasons in 1997 to 1999.The study was part of a large epidemiologicalcross-sectional study of allergy and riskfactors for allergy in Greenlander Inuit livingin Greenland and Denmark.For the three years the mean birch pollenseason started around 8 June, lasted in average16 days and the mean annual total pollen countwas 46. The highest daily concentration of 23birch pollen pr. m³ was measured in 1999.The mean grass pollen season began around 22July, it lasted 53 days and the mean annualtotal pollen count was 81. The highest grasspollen number registered for one day reached 12in 1998. Several other types of pollen werealso measured, generally in smallconcentrations, but for Cyperaceae and Alderthe mean annual total pollen count were 43 and19 respectively. Though the measuredconcentrations are small, it is concluded thatairborne pollen occur in the arctic climate ofNuuk in potentially clinically relevantamounts.For the three years large variations wereobserved for the start, duration and amountsfor both birch and grass. Models forestimation of the starting date based onGrowing Degree Hours (GDHs) predicted the startof the birch and grass pollen with greataccuracy – within one day. Analysis of themeteorological conditions show that themeasured pollen in general originated from thearea around Nuuk, but there are indicationsthat pollen might have been long-transportedfrom Canada.     

Variations and trends of birch pollen seasons during 15 years (1996–2010) in relation to weather conditions in Poznań (western Poland)

Birch (Betula) pollen seasons were examined in relation to meteorological conditions in Poznań (1996–2010). Birch pollen grains were collected using a volumetric spore trap. An alternate biennial cycle of birch pollen season intensity was noticed in Poznań. The main factors influencing birch pollen season intensity were average daily minimum temperatures during the second fortnight of May and the month of June one year before pollination as well as the intensity of the pollen season of the previous year. Most of the pollen grains are recorded during the first week of the season; the number of pollen grains recorded at this time is positively correlated with mean maximum temperature and negatively correlated with daily rainfall. The significant effect of rainfall in reducing the season pollen index was noticed only during weak pollen seasons (season pollen index <?mean). In addition, mean daily maximum temperature during the first two weeks of the birch pollen season markedly influences its duration. No significant trends in duration and intensity of the pollen season were recorded, however, a slight tendency towards early pollination was observed (?0.4 days/year, p?=?0.310).     

Thirty-four years of pollen monitoring: an evaluation of the temporal variation of pollen seasons in Belgium

For the first time in Belgium, fluctuations in airborne pollen quantities over a 34 years period have been analyzed. Seven pollen types have been selected comprising the most clinically relevant in Belgium nowadays (birch, alder, hazel and grasses) and others that are known to be allergenic in other European countries and frequently found in Belgium (plane, ash and mugwort). Pollen monitoring was performed with a seven-day recording volumetric spore trap placed in Brussels. We measured increasing airborne pollen for four trees, namely alder, hazel, ash and plane. Although the total pollen index for birch has not increased significantly, an increasing trend in the annual amount of days above the concentration threshold of 80 pollen grains/m³ was clearly observed. Concerning temporal variations, the pollen season has tended to end earlier for birch, ash and plane and the peak concentration of the pollen of plane has been appearing earlier in the year. In the investigated period, the pollen seasons of grasses and mugwort have tended to become less severe. Furthermore, we reported a temporal shift of the grass pollen season, beginning and ending earlier, together with an advance of the annual peak date.     

天山雪岭云杉大气花粉含量对气温变化的响应

对中国东天山天池自2001年7月至2006年7月连续5a收集的雪岭云杉大气花粉含量进行统计分析,结果表明:1)一年四季大气中都有雪岭云杉花粉,但花粉数量变化比较大,超过全年90％的大气花粉集中在5、6月份的花粉高峰期,之后花粉浓度逐渐下降,至翌年1月份浓度降至最低,2月开始花粉浓度有升高的趋势;2)5a平均花粉浓度是42.66粒/m3,最高年是2005年,花粉浓度可达99.54粒/m3,最低年2003年,仅为2.13粒/m3;3)雪岭云杉大气花粉高峰期出现在5月22至6月2日,高峰日出现在5月28至6月6日,结束日是在6月18至6月25日,平均持续时间为27 d.观测时段雪岭云杉大气花粉高峰期出现日、高峰日逐年提前,2006年出现日期比2002年提前了7d、高峰日提前9d,结束日期滞后,2006年比2002年滞后6d,花粉高峰期持续时间逐年延长,2006年比2002年延长了12d.分析显示,影响雪岭云杉大气花粉高峰期变化的主要因素是春季气温的升高;4)粗略估算每年新疆的雪岭云杉林带内由大气中降落到表土的花粉量达61 kg/hm2,新疆现有雪岭云杉52.84×104hm2,全年由大气降落到林带内表土的花粉多达3223 t,一部分降落到戈壁、荒漠以及沙漠等一些极端气候区的花粉为一些先锋种植物提供必要的营养物质,具有重要的生态意义.     

Climate change and its impact on birch pollen quantities and the start of the pollen season an example from Switzerland for the period 1969–2006

As published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming is a reality and its impact is huge like the increase of extreme weather events, glacier recession, sea level rise and also effects on human health. Among them allergies to airborne pollen might increase or change in pattern due to the invasion of new allergic plants or due to different behavior of plants like earlier flowering. In this study we used the longest Swiss airborne pollen data set to examine the influence of the temperature increase on the time of flowering. In the case of Basel, where pollen data for 38 years are available, it was shown that due to a temperature increase the start of flowering in the case of birch occurred about 15 days earlier. Apart from a shift of the start of the flowering there is also a trend towards higher annual birch pollen quantities and an increase of the highest daily mean pollen concentrations. Due to global warming and because symptoms may appear earlier in the year people suffering from a pollen allergy might face a new unaccustomed situation.     

Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States

Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994–2000 and 2001–2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1–2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6 %–248 %. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.     

The influence of the hot and dry summer 2003 on the pollen season in Switzerland

A record-breaking heat wave affected the European continent in summer 2003. In Switzerland, the temperature in June, July and August exceeded the 1961–1990 mean by about 5 °C. These extreme temperatures had significant effects on the pollen production and on the airborne pollen loads. Especially affected was the grass pollen season, which started 1–2 weeks earlier than in the mean. During May and the first part of June the grass pollen production and dispersion was favoured by the warm and dry weather and many days with high pollen concentrations were registered. First water deficiencies occurred in June so that the grasses ceased to grow. The grass pollen season ended 7–33 days earlier than normal. For many of our stations of the Swiss pollen network this had never occurred as early as in 2003. The other herbaceous plants were not affected as much as the grasses. We measured very high Chenopodium and Plantago pollen concentrations, about normal concentrations of Urtica and Rumex and slightly lower Artemisia pollen concentrations than normal. The summer 2003 was exceptional and its reoccurrence is at the moment statistically extremely unlikely. But models of climatologists show that in the future, climate variations will increase and that in the period 2071–2100 about every second summer could be as warm or warmer and as dry or dryer than 2003.     

Pollen season and climate: Is the timing of birch pollen release in the UK approaching its limit?

In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995–2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of ‘sign-switching’ when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors.     

A comparative study of airborne pollen concentrations of three allergenic types

Airborne concentrations of pollen from Betula (birch), Poaceae (grasses) and Artemisia (mugwort) are compared during a seven year period (90–96) with respect to both quantitative and seasonal aspects, at three different sampling sites, one in Estonia (Tartu) and two in Sweden (Stockholm and Roma on the island of Gotland). All three taxa occur in the region and are well‐known causes of allergic sensitisation. The annual total and peak values of birch, grass and mugwort pollen were found to be much higher in Tartu than in Stockholm and Roma. Both the birch and the grass pollen seasons ended later in Stockholm than in Roma and Tartu. The mugwort flowering season always began earlier in Stockholm than at the other sites, and more days elapsed between start day and peak day in Stockholm than in Tartu.     

Factors that determine the severity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula</Emphasis> spp. pollen seasons in Poland (Poznań and Krakow) and the United Kingdom (Worcester and London)

The aim of this paper is to analyse variations in the severity of Betula pollen seasons, particularly in relation to meteorological parameters at four sites, Poznań and Krakow in Poland, and Worcester and London in the United Kingdom. Results show that there is a significant relationship between Betula pollen season severity and weather conditions both in the year before pollination and in the same year that pollen is released from the plant. Furthermore, it is likely that the magnitude of birch pollen seasons in Poznań, Worcester and London is linked in some way to different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Significant positive relationships exist between birch pollen counts at Poznań and temperatures, rainfall and averages of the NAO in the year before pollination. An opposite relationship is evident at the two sites studied in the United Kingdom. There were significant positive correlations between the severity of birch pollen seasons recorded at Worcester and temperatures and averages of the NAO during the winter and spring in the year of pollination, and negative correlations at both Worcester and London with similar variables from the previous year. In addition, Betula pollen seasons in Krakow do not appear to be influenced by the NAO, which is probably the result of Krakow having a more continental climate.     

Airborne birch pollen in Neuchâtel (Switzerland): onset, peak and daily patterns

An accurate forecast of the starting point of thebirch pollen season in Neuchâtel can be made byadding the positive daily average air temperature fromFebruary 1st onward until the figure 270 is reached.At this point, the birch trees are ready to bloom.After that, the daily average temperature has toexceed 10 °C to allow pollen release.Today, the birch pollen season starts some 19 daysearlier in the year than in the 1980's, a consequenceof a recent climate change.The daily patterns of airborne birch pollen isirregular. Moreover, pollen concentrations frequentlyexceed the threshold of the appearance of allergicsymptoms, except during rainfall. Therefore, the onlybehavioral recommendation that can be given to peopleallergic to birch pollen is to shorten as much aspossible the contact with outdoor air during the mainbirch pollen season.     

An aeropalynological study of metropolitan Toronto

This study uses 6 years of atmospheric pollen data to examine temporal variability of airborne pollen concentrations at various scales. Airborne pollen was collected from 1985 to 1990 with a Burkard trap, located 18 m above ground at Scarborough College, Toronto, Canada. Pollen season parameters are defined and summarized for all taxa in preparation for developing forecasting models. Annual totals of pollen concentration show great interannual variability. The highest coefficient of variation occurs inTsuga, Fraxinus, Betula andFagus, while the lowest inQuercus andAmbrosia. Some taxa show periodic cycles consistent with mast reproductive behaviour. In many studies, the start of the pollen season is defined as an arbitrary percentage of the annual sum. As a result, the start of the season cannot be identified until the season has passed. As well, due to large fluctuations in annual sum, start dates are more variable. This is not practical for the purposes of forecasting. In this study, the start of the pollen season is defined by a critical concentration threshold which signals the onset of the main pollen season in all years. These critical levels ranged from 2 to 60 grains/m³ for the abundant taxa. Interannual variation in the start of the season is approximately 20 days for tree taxa, 5 days for Poaceae, and 2 days forAmbrosia. For many plants, dehiscence is triggered at a critical level of accumulated degree-days. Since annual rates of temperature increase show great variation, there is also interannual variability in the onset of pollen release. Multi-year average pollen curves incorporate these differences in onset and may give an inaccurate representation of the pollen season in a typical year. This paper presents a method of aligning yearly pollen curves to reduce seasonal variation and more accurately represent both the average timing and magnitude of the pollen season. For some types, such asBetula and Poaceae, the resulting curves are positively skewed. Tree taxa, in general, exhibit a more symmetric pollen concentration curve. Aligned average pollen concentration curves are presented for Toronto in the form of a pollen calendar. In addition, phenological data for all common taxa are summarized.     

Responses in the start of Betula (birch) pollen seasons to recent changes in spring temperatures across Europe

A shift in the timing of birch pollen seasons is important because it is well known to be a significant aeroallergen, especially in NW Europe where it is a notable cause of hay fever and pollen-related asthma. The research reported in this paper aims to investigate temporal patterns in the start dates of Betula (birch) pollen seasons at selected sites across Europe. In particular it investigates relationships between the changes in start dates and changes in spring temperatures over approximately the last 20 years. Daily birch pollen counts were used from Kevo, Turku, London, Brussels, Zurich and Vienna, for the core period from 1982 to 1999 and, in some cases, from 1970 to 2000. The sites represent a range of biogeographical situations from just within the Arctic Circle through to North West Maritime and Continental Europe. Pollen samples were taken with Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. Weather data were obtained from the sites nearest to the pollen traps. The timing of birch pollen seasons is known to depend mostly on a non-linear balance between the winter chilling required to break dormancy, and spring temperatures. Pollen start dates and monthly mean temperatures for January through to May were compiled to 5-year running means to examine trends. The start dates for the next 10 years were calculated from regression equations for each site, on the speculative basis that the current trends would continue. The analyses show regional contrasts. Kevo shows a marked trend towards cooler springs and later starts. If this continues the mean start date will become about 6 days later over the next 10 years. Turku exhibits cyclic patterns in start dates. A current trend towards earlier starts is expected to continue until 2007, followed by another fluctuation. London, Brussels, Zurich and Vienna show very similar patterns in the trends towards earlier start dates. If the trend continues the mean start dates at these sites will advance by about 6 days over the next 10 years. Following this work, amendments will be needed to pollen calendars and local predictive models. It will also be important to assess the implications of earlier seasons for allergy sufferers.     

Poaceae pollen in the atmosphere of Tetouan (NW Morocco): effect of meteorological parameters and forecast of daily pollen concentration

The Poaceae pollen season has been characterized in Tetouan during a 7-year period, and the effect of weather conditions on daily concentrations was examined. The forecast models were produced using a stepwise multiple regression analyses. Firstly, three models were constructed to predict daily Poaceae pollen concentrations during the main pollen season, as well as the pre-peak and post-peak periods with data from 2008 to 2012 and tested on data from 2013 and 2014. Secondly, the regression models using leave-one-out cross-validation were produced with data obtained during 2008–2014 taking into account meteorological parameters and mean pollen concentrations of the same day in other years. The duration of the season ranged from 70 days in 2009 to 158 days in 2012. The highest amount of Poaceae pollen was detected in spring and the first fortnight of July. The annual sum of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations varied between 2100 and 6251. The peak of anthesis was recorded in May in six of the other years studied. The regression models accounted for 36.3–85.7% of variance in daily Poaceae pollen concentrations. The models fitted best when the mean pollen concentration of the same day in other years was added to meteorological variables, and explained 78.4–85.7% of variance of the daily pollen changes. When the year 2014 was used for validating the models, the lowest root-mean-square errors values were found between the observed and estimated data (around 13). The reasonable predictor variables were the mean pollen concentration of the same day in other years, mean temperature, precipitations, and maximum relative humidity.     

Exploring the spatio-temporal relationship between two key aeroallergens and meteorological variables in the United Kingdom

Constructing accurate predictive models for grass and birch pollen in the air, the two most important aeroallergens, for areas with variable climate conditions such as the United Kingdom, require better understanding of the relationships between pollen count in the air and meteorological variables. Variations in daily birch and grass pollen counts and their relationship with daily meteorological variables were investigated for nine pollen monitoring sites for the period 2000–2010 in the United Kingdom. An active pollen count sampling method was employed at each of the monitoring stations to sample pollen from the atmosphere. The mechanism of this method is based on the volumetric spore traps of Hirst design (Hirst in Ann Appl Biol 39(2):257–265, 1952). The pollen season (start date, finish date) for grass and birch were determined using a first derivative method. Meteorological variables such as daily rainfall; maximum, minimum and average temperatures; cumulative sum of Sunshine duration; wind speed; and relative humidity were related to the grass and birch pollen counts for the pre-peak, post peak and the entire pollen season. The meteorological variables were correlated with the pollen count data for the following temporal supports: same-day, 1-day prior, 1-day mean prior, 3-day mean prior, 7-day mean prior. The direction of influence (positive/negative) of meteorological variables on pollen count varied for birch and grass, and also varied when the pollen season was treated as a whole season, or was segmented into the pre-peak and post-peak seasons. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of grass pollen in the atmosphere. Both maximum temperature (pre-peak) and sunshine produced a strong positive correlation, and rain produced a strong negative correlation with grass pollen count in the air. Similarly, average temperature, wind speed and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of birch pollen in the air. Both wind speed and rain produced a negative correlation with birch pollen count in the air and average temperature produced a positive correlation.     

The start of the birch pollen season in Finnish Lapland: separating non‐local from local birch pollen and the implication for allergy sufferers

Determining the start of the birch pollen season requires the reliable separation of non‐local from locally produced birch pollen. The research was undertaken close to the latitudinal birch tree line at the Kevo Subarctic Research Institute (69°45′N 27°01′E) in northern Finland. By comparing phenological and aerobiological observations, the proportion of birch pollen present in the air before local anthesis commences can be delimited. We coupled this with data of pollen deposition monitored by means of a modified Tauber trap. The dominant birch species at Kevo is the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii, whereas B. pubescens ssp. pubescens is very rare, hence we consider the proportion of the southerly B. pubescens‐type pollen deposited in the pollen trap to be non‐local in origin.

We did not observe any trend towards an earlier start of the phenologically observed mountain birch anthesis at Kevo as predicted from work elsewhere. Moreover, the fixed 2.5% threshold method for determining the birch pollen season proved not to be applicable since in many years this threshold was reached before the end of continuous snow cover. The results indicate that in some years non‐local birch pollen contributes considerably to the allergen load in Lapland with up to 57% of the total birch pollen sum being recorded before the day on which local anthesis commenced, and up to 70% of the annual birch pollen deposited being of the southerly birch type.     

Predicting the intensity of the birch pollen season

We present a model for the prediction of the magnitude ofBetula flowering and pollen dispersal which may be used in the management of birch pollinosis and in the planning of clinical trials. The pollen sum during the flowering season is regressed on the temperature sum from May 1st to July 20th during the initiation year, the pollen sum of the initiation year, and the temperature sum during the main pollen season in the flowering year. We suggest that the fluctuating flowering pattern inBetula alba-species is primarily determined by the availability of assimilation products during inflorescence initiation and development during the spring one year before anthesis. When inflorescences, which are initiated during the previous year, elongate in the beginning of anthesis, they act as strong sinks to stored carbohydrates, and thus compete with developing leaves and shoots. The result is an initially reduced photosynthetic capacity in years with intense flowering, and a limited potential for the initiation of new inflorescences for the following year. The ambient temperature during catkin initiation affects assimilation efficiency and is a determinant of about equal importance to flowering intensity as is the magnitude of the flowering in the initiation year. The amount of pollen dispersed is also dependent on the weather during anthesis, which is not possible to predict until about one month in advance. The two other independent variables are available during the previous summer, making it possible to give a sufficiently valid prediction to allergologists about the magnitude of the next birch pollen season, according to its botanical determinants. We suggest that the varying reproductive output inBetula alba should not be described as true masting. A more parsimonious explanation to the flowering pattern is that an individual continually maximizes reproductive effort, according to what is possible, but that reproduction is often constrained by the environment.     

Predicting the intensity of the birch pollen season

We present a model for the prediction of the magnitude ofBetula flowering and pollen dispersal which may be used in the management of birch pollinosis and in the planning of clinical trials. The pollen sum during the flowering season is regressed on the temperature sum from May 1st to July 20th during the initiation year, the pollen sum of the initiation year, and the temperature sum during the main pollen season in the flowering year. We suggest that the fluctuating flowering pattern inBetula alba-species is primarily determined by the availability of assimilation products during inflorescence initiation and development during the spring one year before anthesis. When inflorescences, which are initiated during the previous year, elongate in the beginning of anthesis, they act as strong sinks to stored carbohydrates, and thus compete with developing leaves and shoots. The result is an initially reduced photosynthetic capacity in years with intense flowering, and a limited potential for the initiation of new inflorescences for the following year. The ambient temperature during catkin initiation affects assimilation efficiency and is a determinant of about equal importance to flowering intensity as is the magnitude of the flowering in the initiation year. The amount of pollen dispersed is also dependent on the weather during anthesis, which is not possible to predict until about one month in advance. The two other independent variables are available during the previous summer, making it possible to give a sufficiently valid prediction to allergologists about the magnitude of the next birch pollen season, according to its botanical determinants. We suggest that the varying reproductive output inBetula alba should not be described as true masting. A more parsimonious explanation to the flowering pattern is that an individual continually maximizes reproductive effort, according to what is possible, but that reproduction is often constrained by the environment.