Canadian fertility trends in perspective

This paper examines the broad movements of Canadian period and cohort fertility over the past 100 years, and compares them with corresponding trends in the US and other industrialized countries. The main movement in Canada was a decline in fertility extending from the 19th century to the present, interrupted in the 1940s and 1950s by a baby boom. Between 1871 and 1937 the total fertility rate (TFR) fell at about an average of 1.4% annually. The rate of fall in the US was similar, with the result that in the late 1930s the Canadian TFR was about 20% that of the US. The fertility boom that followed was steeper in the US than in Canada, and in the downswing that later followed, the rate of decline was similar in the 2 countries (3.4-4% annual average). But, the decline continued longer-- indeed still continues--in Canada, whereas the TFR in the US reached its lowest point in 1976. Moreover, the recent decline in fertility has been more severe in Canada than in almost any other industrialized country. The TFR relates to fertility in a single year and is highly sensitive to short-term changes in the timing of births. For the purposes of understanding and explaining long-term trends in fertility, the completed fertility rate (CFR) is a better index because it measures the ultimate family size of cohorts. Cohort fertility can be seen to fluctuate much less than does period fertility. In both the US and Canada, the peak cohorts, born in the early 1930s, had roughly the same completed fertility, and later cohorts continued to remain closely in step as the CFR fell sharply. In Canada the fall continues, though at a reduced rate, in the latest cohorts for which there is information. Apart from differences in amplitude, the dates of turning points and the shapes of the TFR and CFR curves of Canadian fertility are fairly similar. The long decline in cohort fertility is largely explained by the decrease in the proportions of families of 6 or more children. During the baby boom, for Catholics and non-Catholics alike, the proportion of ever-married women remaining childless fell by about 40%, the proportion having 2 children changed little, and the proportions having 3,4 and 5 children tended to increase substantially. The crucial difference between the 2 groups was in the proportions of women having 6 or more children. For non-Catholics, the proportion fell by over 4% from a high level. For non-Catholics, on the other hand, the proportion rose somewhat, though even after the rise, it was barely more than 1/2 the level to which the Catholic proportion had declined. Among Catholics, the effect of the massive decline in the proportion of women having 6 or more children was to swamp the effects of the increase in the proportions of women having 3, 4 and 5 children. The net effect was that fertility declined. Among non-Catholics, however, the comparable increases in the proportions of families of 3, 4 and 5 children, were not offset by any fall in the proportion of larger families, with the result that a baby boom occurred.     

Racial fertility differences: The role of female employment and education in wanted and unwanted childbearing

Abstract

This paper employs data from a merged sample of the National Surveys of Family Growth to examine how female employment status conditions the relationship between education and wanted and unwanted births among African American and white women. A rationale is presented for why a minority group status hypothesis that posits lower fertility among more highly educated African American women as compared to similar white women might find support in the case of wanted births and among certain women, including earlier birth cohorts. Our results provide some evidence for these ideas as well as evidence for a social characteristics hypothesis that predicts convergence of childbearing with rising education. However, persistently higher levels of unwanted births among African American women of all educational levels suggest that the dynamics of racial fertility differences are more complex than either of the hypotheses imply.     

Period and cohort dynamics in fertility norms at the onset of the demographic transition in Kenya 1978-1998

A characteristic of African pre-transitional fertility regimes is large ideal family size. This has been used to support claims of cultural entrenchment of high fertility. Yet in Kenya fertility rates have fallen. In this paper this fall is explored in relation to trends in fertility norms and attitudes using four sequential cross-sectional surveys spanning the fertility transition in Kenya (1978, 1984, 1989 and 1998). The most rapid fall in the reported ideal family size occurred between 1984 and 1989, whilst the most rapid fall in the total fertility rate occurred 5 to 10 years later, between 1989 and 1998. Thus these data, spanning the fertility transition in Kenya, support the traditional demographic model that demand for fertility limitation drives fertility decline. These data also suggest that the decline in fertility norms over time was partly a period effect, as the reported ideal family size was seen to fall simultaneously in all age cohorts, and partly a cohort effect, as older age cohorts reporting higher ideal family sizes were replaced by younger cohorts reporting lower ideal family sizes. These data also suggest that a new fertility norm of four children may have developed by 1989 and continued until 1998. This is consistent with, and perhaps could have been used to predict, the stall in the Kenyan fertility decline after 1998.     

Effects of releasing maladapted individuals: a demographic-evolutionary model

A model of the joint dynamics of change in population size N and evolution in a quantitative trait z, as a result of a general form of density dependence, local stabilizing selection, and immigration of individuals deviating from the local optimum, is analyzed. For weak selection and migration, a reduction in total equilibrium population size below the initial level without immigration, K, is shown to occur if the immigrants deviates more than square root of 8 = 2.83 genetic standard deviations from the optimum and if the rate of migration m is sufficiently large relative to the strength of stabilizing selection s. For the Lotka-Volterra form of density dependence, two additional equilibria are shown to exist below K, provided that the strength of selection is large relative to the strength of density dependence. Reintroduction of an initially extinct population is possible if the immigrants are not too maladapted and if the genetic variance is sufficiently large. For a simplified version of the model corresponding to competition between similar species or different haplotypes, the equilibrium population size is always exactly at K if m < Ksz1(2) and is above K otherwise, which shows the importance of including recombination in the model.     

Estimating parity of parents: application to the history of infertility among the !Kung of Southern Africa

We derive a method for interpreting information about the reproductive performance of mothers of a sample of informants and apply it to the history of low fertility among the !Kung of the Kalahari desert of southern Africa. The method formalizes the commonsense procedure of weighting mothers with 1 birth by 1, with 2 births by 1/2, with 3 births by 1/3, etc. An expression for the confidence interval of the estimate of mean completed fertility of fertile women in the mothers' cohort is given. Several independent studies show that !Kung women have low fertility, with a population average completed family size of slightly over 4. Our method, applied to the cohort of old informants, shows that fertility is comparable among !Kung women, mothers of old informants, who were born in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. If the cause is an endemic infectious disease of long standing in this region, there are important implications for the history of southern and central Africa.     

Field estimates of fitness costs of the pace‐of‐life in an endangered damselfly

Theory predicts that within‐population differences in the pace‐of‐life can lead to cohort splitting and produce marked intraspecific variation in body size. Although many studies showed that body size is positively correlated with fitness, many argue that selection for the larger body is counterbalanced by opposing physiological and ecological selective mechanisms that favour smaller body. When a population split into cohorts with different paces of life (slow or fast cohort), one would expect to detect the fitness–size relationship among and within cohorts, that is, (a) slower‐developing cohort has larger body size and higher fitness than faster‐developing cohort, and (b) larger individuals within each cohort show higher fitness than smaller individuals. Here, we test these hypotheses in capture–mark–recapture field surveys that assess body size, lifespan, survival and lifetime mating success in two consecutive generations of a partially bivoltine aquatic insect, Coenagrion mercuriale, where the spring cohort is slower‐developing than the autumn cohort. As expected, body size was larger in the slow‐developing cohort, which is consistent with the temperature‐size rule and also with the duration of development. Body size seasonal variation was greater in slow‐developing cohort most likely because of the higher variation in age at maturity. Concordant with theory, survival probability, lifespan and lifetime mating success were higher in the slow‐developing cohort. Moreover, individual body size was positively correlated with survival and mating success in both cohorts. Our study confirms the fitness costs of fast pace‐of‐life and the benefits of larger body size to adult fitness.     

Commodity aspirations in Easterlin's relative income theory of fertility

This paper presents the preference ordering that underlies Easterlin's relative income theory of fertility. Commodity aspirations are a key component of the theory and the paper explores how the introduction of commodity aspirations into the utility function affects the consumption of commodities and bearing of children. The formation and empirical specification of commodity aspirations are also discussed. Commodity aspirations are formed by the material environment experienced during childhood and are primarily a function of parental income. Easterlin, Leibenstein and Ben-Porath argus that it is the parental consumption or standard of living that determines the child's testes or aspirations. It is the parents' spending on themseleves rather than total parental income that can be used as a proxy for the child's commodity aspirations. Bagozzi and Van Loo identify 4 significant contributions made by Easterlinhs theory of fertility. They cite his stress on potential income flow through time as being pertinent to household decision making; tastes being an explicit determinant of fertility; background charactersticis and norms as to standards of child care and family size affecting fertility indirectly through tastes rather than directly; and the fact that relative income has an effect on fertility in addition to the influence of the absolute level of income. The number of children demanded is a negative function of commodity aspirations, as is the utility of the family. Studies of the demand for commodities and children should include data on parental resources.     

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.     

A synthetic biosocial model of fertility transition: Testing the relative contribution of embodied capital theory,changing cultural norms,and women's labor force participation

This article presents a biosocial model of fertility decline, which integrates ecological‐economic and informational‐cultural hypotheses of fertility transition in a unified theoretical framework. The model is then applied to empirical data collected among 500 women from San Borja, Bolivia, a population undergoing fertility transition. Using a combination of event history analysis, multiple regression, and structural equation modeling, we examine the pathways by which education responds to birth cohort, parental education and network ties, and how age at first birth and total fertility, in turn, respond to birth cohort, social network ties, education, expectations about parental investment, work, and contraceptive use. We find that in addition to secular trends in education, respondent's education is associated with the education of parents, the investment she received from them, and the education of older siblings. Total fertility has dropped over time, partly in response to increased education; moreover, the behavior of other women in a woman's social network predicts both initiation of reproduction and total fertility, while expected parental investment in offspring negatively predicts total fertility. Involvement in paid work that is incompatible with childcare is associated with a later age of first reproduction, but not subsequent fertility. Contraceptive use partially mediates the effect of education and birth cohort on total fertility, but is not a mediator of the effect of social network or expected parental investment on total fertility. Overall, the empirical results provide support for a biosocial model of fertility decline, particularly the embodied capital and cultural pathways. Am J Phys Anthropol 154:322–333, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Changes in timing of fertility--a Canadian experience

This paper examines the patterns of timing of births of women using data from the Canadian Fertility Survey of 1984. Semi-Markovian schemes are applied to the maternity histories of the 5315 sample women in their reproductive ages in order to measure the intensity and timing of childbearing. Age-and-duration-specific transition probabilities are found to have substantially changed for the more recent birth cohorts compared to the older cohorts.     

Intra‐cohort cannibalism and size bimodality: a balance between hatching synchrony and resource feedbacks

Cannibalistic interactions generally depend on the size relationship between cannibals and victims. In many populations, a large enough size variation to allow for cannibalism may not only develop among age‐cohorts but also within cohorts. We studied the implications of variation in hatching period length and initial cohort size for the emergence of cannibalism and bimodal size distributions within animal cohorts using a physiologically structured population model. We found that the development of size bimodality was critically dependent on hatching period length, victim density and the presence of a feedback via shared resources. Cannibals only gained enough energy from cannibalism to accelerate in growth when victim density was high relative to cannibal density at the onset of cannibalism. Furthermore, we found that the opportunity for early hatchers to initially feed on an unexploited resource increases the likelihood both for cannibalism to occur and size bimodality to develop. Once cannibals accelerated in growth relative to victims size bimodality, reduced victim numbers and relaxed resource competition resulted. Thus, in addition to that cannibals profited from cannibalism through energy extraction, their potential victims also benefited as the resource recovered due to cannibal thinning. To ensure recruitment success, it can be critical that a few individuals can accelerate in growth and reach a size large enough to escape size‐dependent predation and winter starvation. Hence, within‐cohort cannibalism may be a potentially important mechanism to explain recruitment variation especially for cannibalistic species in temperate climates with strong seasonality. However, the scope for size bimodality to develop as a result of cannibalism may be limited by low victim densities and size and food‐dependent growth rates.     

Culled males,infant mortality and reproductive success in a pre-industrial Finnish population

Theoretical and empirical literature asserts that the sex ratio (i.e. M/F) at birth gauges the strength of selection in utero and cohort quality of males that survive to birth. We report the first individual-level test in humans, using detailed life-history data, of the ‘culled cohort’ hypothesis that males born to low annual sex ratio cohorts show lower than expected infant mortality and greater than expected lifetime reproductive success. We applied time-series and structural equation methods to a unique multigenerational dataset of a natural fertility population in nineteenth century Finland. We find that, consistent with culled cohorts, a 1 s.d. decline in the annual cohort sex ratio precedes an 8% decrease in the risk of male infant mortality. Males born to lower cohort sex ratios also successfully raised 4% more offspring to reproductive age than did males born to higher cohort sex ratios. The offspring result, however, falls just outside conventional levels of statistical significance. In historical Finland, the cohort sex ratio gauges selection against males in utero and predicts male infant mortality. The reproductive success findings, however, provide weak support for an evolutionarily adaptive explanation of male culling in utero.     

The effect of size-dependent growth and environmental factors on animal size variability

The origin of variation in animal growth rate and body size is not well understood but central to ecological and evolutionary processes. We develop a relationship that predicts the change in relative body size variation within a cohort will be approximately equal to the relative change in mean per unit size growth rate, when only size-dependent factors affect growth. When modeling cohort growth, relative size variation decreased, remained unchanged, or increased, as a function of growth rate-size scaling relationships, in a predictable manner. We use the approximation to predict how environmental factors (e.g., resource level) affect body size variation, and verified these predictions numerically for a flexible growth model using a wide range of parameter values. We also explore and discuss the assumptions underlying the approximation. We find that factors that similarly affect mean growth rate may differently affect size variation, and competition may increase body size variation without changing size-independent relationships. We discuss implications of our results to the choice of growth equations used in models where body size variation is an important variable or output.     

Population genetics of modifiers of meiotic drive: IV. On the evolution of sex-ratio distortion.

A model for the evolution of the sex-ratio meiotic drive system in Drosophila is proposed and analyzed. The model incorporates genetic modification of meiotic drive and altered fertility in the carriers of the modified sex-ratio chromosomes. The condition that a sex-ratio modifying chromosome increase is that the relative change in the sex-ratio distortion overcome any relative fertility loss in carriers of the modifying chromosome. When no fertility differences are involved, the model predicts that any increase in distortion of the sex ratio will be favored.     

Differential fertility in the United States, 1980: continuity or change?

This paper considers how changes in women's sociocultural characteristics have influenced recent patterns of differential fertility in the US and whether the convergence of fertility differentials observed up to 1970 has continued. The data are drawn from the June 1980 US Current Population Survey, which is a probability sample survey selected to represent the civilian non-institutionalized population living in households. The study population consists of 20,621 ever-married White and Black women aged 25-44, a group for various reasons considered to have a high impact from the point of view of fertility behavior. Fertility to date and ever expected fertility are the dependent variables. The respondents were separated into age cohorts, and differentiated by race. The data suggest that there has been no change in differential fertility in recent years: the 2 youngest cohorts (25-29 and 30-34 years) have similar expected fertilities that are lower than those of the older cohorts. Age at 1st birth, length of 1st birth interval, income, and education were negatively associated with fertility, among both older and younger women, of both races. Differentials by race have narrowed slightly. When fertility expectations were examined, the association of the independent variables with expected completed fertility was weaker among younger women, indicating that there has been some convergence in expected fertility. Further narrowing of differentials in actual fertility depends on how successful the younger women are in preventing future unplanned births. If the present tendency towards surgical sterilization (among both races and groups above and below the poverty level) persists, it will make it possible for more women to stay within their expected total fertility levels.     

A regression approach to the projection of U.S. fertility based on past fertility data

The method of fertility projection used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census involves assumptions about the ultimate cohort total fertility rate and the ultimate cohort mean age at childbearing based on recent levels of fertility and women's birth expectations. This paper provides an outline of a general regression approach to fertility projection based on past data which would generate these two ultimate cohort characteristics. The technique is illustrated by using the U.S. single-year age-specific fertility rates up to 1986 for total women and projecting them indefinitely into the future until they become stable for both calendar years and cohorts.     

Fitness,reproduction and longevity among European aristocratic and rural Finnish families in the 1700s and 1800s

The life histories of two socio-economically different groups of humans comprising birth cohorts from the 1700s and 1800s were investigated. It was discovered that fertility selection was greater among European aristocrats and mortality selection greater among rural Finns. The life history of the rural Finns involved shorter female life spans, a considerably longer period of reproduction, higher juvenile mortality, a greater total production of offspring and slightly higher individual fitness. In a comparison of parental cohorts, it was discovered that longevity and progeny survival improved significantly from the 1700s to the 1800s. Out of the three factors investigated, longevity was found to influence reproduction and fitness more than socio-economic group or birth cohort. The reproductive efficacy and fitness of women increased along with their life span. However, reproductive success and fitness were lower among women with the longest life span (over 80 years). Among men, reproductive success improved consistently along with the increase in longevity. When birth intervals were examined, it was discovered that the sex of previous offspring did not influence the interval between births.     

The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments

This paper presents a model describing how the uncertainty due to influential exogenous processes combines with stochasticity intrinsic to physiological aging processes and propagates through time to generate uncertainty about the future physiological state of the population. Variance expressions are derived for (a) the future values of the physiological variables under the assumption that external factors evolve under a linear stochastic diffusion process, and (b) the cohort survival functions and cohort life expectancies which reflect the uncertainty in the future values of the physiological variables. The model implies that a major component of uncertainty in forecasts of the physiological characteristics of a closed cohort is due to differential rates of survival associated with different realizations of the external process. This suggests that the limits to forecasting may be different in physiological systems subject to systematic mortality than in physical systems such as weather where the concepts of closed cohorts and of mortality selection have no simple analog.     

Proportional Hazards Regression for the Analysis of Clustered Survival Data from Case–Cohort Studies

Summary Case–cohort sampling is a commonly used and efficient method for studying large cohorts. Most existing methods of analysis for case–cohort data have concerned the analysis of univariate failure time data. However, clustered failure time data are commonly encountered in public health studies. For example, patients treated at the same center are unlikely to be independent. In this article, we consider methods based on estimating equations for case–cohort designs for clustered failure time data. We assume a marginal hazards model, with a common baseline hazard and common regression coefficient across clusters. The proposed estimators of the regression parameter and cumulative baseline hazard are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, and consistent estimators of the asymptotic covariance matrices are derived. The regression parameter estimator is easily computed using any standard Cox regression software that allows for offset terms. The proposed estimators are investigated in simulation studies, and demonstrated empirically to have increased efficiency relative to some existing methods. The proposed methods are applied to a study of mortality among Canadian dialysis patients.     

An extension of a parity-dependent model for number of births and estimation of fecundability

This paper presents a probability distribution describing the variation in the number of births in a human population during a given period since marriage, assuming fertility parameters to be parity dependent. A procedure to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is outlined. Its applications are illustrated with observed and simulated data.