Using LCA‐based Decomposition Analysis to Study the Multidimensional Contribution of Technological Innovation to Environmental Pressures

This article presents a general framework for macroenvironmental assessment, combining life cycle assessment (LCA) with the IPAT equation, and explores its combination with decomposition analysis to assess the multidimensional contribution of technological innovation to environmental pressures. This approach is illustrated with a case study in which carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) air emissions from diesel passenger cars in Europe during the period 1990–2005 are first decomposed using index decomposition analysis into technology, consumption activity, and population growth effects. By a second decomposition, the contribution of a specific innovation (diesel engine) is calculated on the basis of the technology and consumption activity effects, through a technological comparison with a relevant alternative and the calculation of the rebound effect, respectively. The empirical analysis for diesel passenger cars highlights the discrepancies between the micro (LCA) and macro (IPAT‐LCA) analytical approaches. Thus, whereas diesel engines present a relatively less‐pollutant environmental product profile than their gasoline counterparts, total CO₂ and NO_x emissions would have increased partly as a consequence of their introduction, mainly driven by the increase in travel demand caused by the induced direct price rebound effect from fuel savings and fuel price differences. The counterintuitive result shows the need for such an analysis.     

Waste Generation Flows and Tourism Growth: A STIRPAT Model for Mallorca

Several studies have examined the relationship between environmental degradation and population growth. However, most of them do not take into account the difference between local population and tourist arrivals, which is considerably important for mature tourist destinations. This article contributes to the literature by separating these two groups within the framework of IPAT‐based models to measure the impact of tourist arrivals in terms of municipal solid waste generation for Mallorca. The model leads to a stochastic differential equations system, which shows that this mature tourist destination has higher population elasticity than industrial economies. Moreover, the model allowed us to measure the elasticity of substitution between lower‐ and higher‐income tourists. Results showed that an increase of 1% on tourist arrivals growth rate would generate an increase in waste disposal generation of 1.25%. Furthermore, an increase of tourist expenditures by 1% on the destination would lead to an increase of municipal solid waste generation of 0.51%.     

经济系统物质流分析研究述评

作为研究经济系统物质代谢的重要方法,经济系统物质流分析方法近年来在资源与环境管理领域得到了广泛的应用,理论发展非常迅速。对经济系统物质流分析进行了系统综述,以期为更深入的理论研究提供参考。系统回顾了经济系统物质流分析的发展历史,介绍了其核算框架和指标体系。重点对经济系统物质流分析的研究现状进行了总结和述评,研究表明:(1)在经济系统物质流分析指标的核算研究方面:国家层面的核算研究多、方法较为成熟,而区域层面的核算研究尚未形成成熟的核算框架;针对直接流指标的核算研究多,而包含间接流或隐藏流的综合指标的核算方法研究不足;(2)在经济系统物质流分析指标的变化原因研究方面,目前的研究较少,研究方法包括分解分析法和回归分析法:前者多基于IPAT方程的直接分解法,难以考察经济系统内部的结构和技术的变化对经济系统物质流分析指标的影响,而后者则在所识别的经济系统物质流分析指标的影响因素方面具有较大差异。提出了经济系统物质流分析的未来研究方向。     

Material Flow Accounts and Driving Factors of Economic Growth in the Philippines

This study looks into material flow trends in the Philippines from 1985 to 2010 by utilizing the methodology of economy‐wide material flow analysis. Using domestic data sources, this study presents disaggregated annual material flow trends in terms of four major material categories, namely: biomass; fossil energy carriers; ores and industrial minerals; and construction minerals. The results describe in detail the growth of material flows in a high‐density country at the onset of its development and reveal the shift of material consumption from dominance of renewable materials in 1985 to nonrenewable materials in 2010. IPAT analysis shows that the increase in material consumption was driven by population growth from 1985 to 1998 and by growth in affluence from 1999 to 2010. However, high inequalities amidst the growing economy suggest that a small group of wealthy people have influenced the acceleration of material consumption in the Philippines. The results of this research are intended to provide a thorough analysis of the processes occurring in Philippine economic growth in order to assist in tackling implications for the important issue of sustainable resource management.     

The environmental zero‐point problem in evolutionary reaction norm modeling

There is a potential problem in present quantitative genetics evolutionary modeling based on reaction norms. Such models are state‐space models, where the multivariate breeder's equation in some form is used as the state equation that propagates the population state forward in time. These models use the implicit assumption of a constant reference environment, in many cases set to zero. This zero‐point is often the environment a population is adapted to, that is, where the expected geometric mean fitness is maximized. Such environmental reference values follow from the state of the population system, and they are thus population properties. The environment the population is adapted to, is, in other words, an internal population property, independent of the external environment. It is only when the external environment coincides with the internal reference environment, or vice versa, that the population is adapted to the current environment. This is formally a result of state‐space modeling theory, which is an important theoretical basis for evolutionary modeling. The potential zero‐point problem is present in all types of reaction norm models, parametrized as well as function‐valued, and the problem does not disappear when the reference environment is set to zero. As the environmental reference values are population characteristics, they ought to be modeled as such. Whether such characteristics are evolvable is an open question, but considering the complexity of evolutionary processes, such evolvability cannot be excluded without good arguments. As a straightforward solution, I propose to model the reference values as evolvable mean traits in their own right, in addition to other reaction norm traits. However, solutions based on an evolvable G matrix are also possible.     

基于结构方程模型的森林生态系统空气负离子影响机制分析

空气负离子(Negative air ion, NAI)是衡量空气质量的重要指标之一,受到植被和环境的共同影响。然而,森林生态系统作为NAI产生的重要来源,森林中的植被和环境之间的相互作用以及对NAI的影响机制和贡献潜力仍难以捉摸。以暖温带森林生态系统中广泛分布的栓皮栎(Quercus variabilis BI.)为对象,基于自动观测设备长期定位观测获取了气象、土壤性质、空气洁净度以及植被光合等数据,利用皮尔逊相关系数分析和偏最小二乘结构方程模型分析了森林植被和环境要素对NAI的影响机制和贡献潜力。结果表明,环境要素和植被光合对NAI的贡献差异显著,植被光合对NAI的贡献潜力为62.65%,环境要素对NAI的贡献率为37.35%。环境要素中太阳辐射和饱和水汽压差的影响程度最大,分别为68.94%和16.55%。植被光合和PM_2.5主要通过直接效应影响NAI,而光合有效辐射、紫外辐射、土壤温湿度和饱和水汽压差主要通过间接效应影响NAI。因此,利用结构方程模型可以阐明植被光合与环境要素的变化对NAI的影响趋势,从而全面揭示了森林生态系统中植被产生NAI的作用机制以及...     

Nonlinear PI controllers for continuous bioreactors using population balance models

Continuous bioreactors are critical unit operations in many biological systems, but the unique modeling is very complicated due to the underlying biochemical reactions and the distributed properties of cell population. The scope of this paper considers a popular modeling method for microbial cell cultures by population balance equation models, and the control objective aims to attenuate undesired oscillations appeared in the nonlinear distributed parameter system. In view of pursuing the popular/practical control configuration and the lack of on-line sensors, an approximate technique by exploiting the “pseudo-steady-state” approach constructs a simple nonlinear control model. Through an off-line estimation mechanism for the system having self-oscillating behavior, two kinds of nonlinear PI configurations are developed. Closed-loop simulation results have confirmed that the regulatory and tracking performances of the control system proposed are good.     

Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO₂ emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China''s development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.     

Eutrophication in the Baltic Sea

Fish consumption is increasing globally. Overfishing puts pressure on fisheries, but aquaculture provides an alternative to satisfy the growing need for seafood. However, nutrient emissions from aquaculture contribute to eutrophication, and raising fish from the top of the food chain is inefficient. Here we use the approach of industrial ecology and report ImPACT decomposition analysis of the drivers of nutrient emissions to the Baltic Sea from rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland during 1980?2007. During this period, the nitrogen load studied increased markedly and was 522 tonnes in 2007. The phosphorus load quadrupled and then returned to its original level of about 65 tonnes. The Finnish population increased slightly, while the average affluence level increased significantly. Total salmonid consumption increased substantially during the period. The increasing percentage of imported salmonids and improvements in domestic aquaculture technology ended the period of strong growth of emissions in the 1980s. Decreasing the nutrient load through reductions in salmonid consumption in the future is unlikely, due to health benefits and consumer preferences. Replacing domestic production with import of salmonids raises questions regarding outsourcing of the environmental impact, and regarding rural development in Finland. Major improvements in production technology are not in sight. New perspectives on rainbow trout aquaculture may be needed, including using feed from the Baltic Sea, thus closing the nutrient cycle or changing consumption and production to herbivorous fish species.     

IPAT及其扩展模型的应用研究进展

IPAT及其扩展模型能够定量描述人文驱动力与环境压力之间的关系,有助于理解人类和自然系统的动态耦合,是诊断因社会经济发展而产生的环境问题的有效工具.本文简要介绍了IPAT模型由来及其扩展模型的发展状况,系统总结了模型国内外应用研究进展,并对研究中的热点问题进行探讨,提出IPAT及其扩展模型的发展趋势,旨在进一步深化IPAT相关模型在环境可持续发展中的应用,为社会管理决策提供依据.     

汉、藏、回族地区农户的环境影响——以甘肃省张掖市、甘南藏族自治州、临夏回族自治州为例

农户作为我国最主要的经济活动主体与最基本的决策单位,已成为影响生态环境的最重要单元,当前急需理解农户的环境影响,并依此为依据找寻缓解环境压力的对策.以甘肃省张掖市、甘南藏族自治州、临夏回族自治州为研究区,以生态足迹作为测度环境影响的指标,利用入户调查资料,基于成分法核算了农户的生态足迹,对比分析了汉、藏、回族地区农户的环境影响,并利用STIRPAT模型分解了各因素对农户环境影响的作用.研究发现:(1)甘南州农户的人均生态足迹高于张掖市与临夏州,其中甘南州农户的人均草地足迹远高于张掖市与临夏州,而张掖市农户的人均化石能源地足迹远高于甘南州与临夏州;(2)3个地区农户对耕地影响的差距均较小,但对水域、林地、草地影响的差距都较悬殊;(3)农户的家庭规模、富裕水平、受教育程度、非农化水平是影响生态环境的主要驱动因子,扩大家庭规模、提高富裕水平将加剧对环境的影响,而提高农户的受教育程度及非农化水平将减缓对环境的影响,但它们引起的环境影响变化速度均低于其自身的变化速度;(4)民族属性对农户的环境影响具有显著作用,张掖市、甘南藏族自治州、临夏回族自治州的现有样本数据支持环境Kuznets曲线假说.     

Adaptive dynamics via Hamilton-Jacobi approach and entropy methods for a juvenile-adult model

We consider a nonlinear system describing a juvenile-adult population undergoing small mutations. We analyze two aspects: from a mathematical point of view, we use an entropy method to prove that the population neither goes extinct nor blows-up; from an adaptive evolution point of view, we consider small mutations on a long time scale and study how a monomorphic or a dimorphic initial population evolves towards an Evolutionarily Stable State. Our method relies on an asymptotic analysis based on a constrained Hamilton-Jacobi equation. It allows to recover earlier predictions in Calsina and Cuadrado [A. Calsina, S. Cuadrado, Small mutation rate and evolutionarily stable strategies in infinite dimensional adaptive dynamics, J. Math. Biol. 48 (2004) 135; A. Calsina, S. Cuadrado, Stationary solutions of a selection mutation model: the pure mutation case, Math. Mod. Meth. Appl. Sci. 15(7) (2005) 1091.] that we also assert by direct numerical simulation. One of the interests here is to show that the Hamilton-Jacobi approach initiated in Diekmann et al. [O. Diekmann, P.-E. Jabin, S. Mischler, B. Perthame, The dynamics of adaptation: an illuminating example and a Hamilton-Jacobi approach, Theor. Popul. Biol. 67(4) (2005) 257.] extends to populations described by systems.     

吉林省大安市生态环境规划系统动力学仿真模型

生态环境是人类生存和发展的基本条件,经济、社会发展的物质基础。如何保护和建设好生态环境,合理开发利用自然资源,是当今世界所面临的共同问题。针对吉林西部研究区的特点,要使生态环境和经济协调发展,必须统筹规划,突出土地盐碱地治理的重点,实施土、林、水综合治理。根据农业生态环境系统多目标、多层次、多变量、非线性的特点,应用系统动力学的原理与方法,建立系统动力学仿真模型,模拟封闭系统的动态变化,定量预测系统行为。并以吉林省大安市为例,采用系统动力学方法,开展了该区生态环境规划仿真研究,经过模型调控对比,提出了适合经济发展的最佳方案。     

An implicit approach to model plant infestation by insect pests

Various spatial approaches were developed to study the effect of spatial heterogeneities on population dynamics. We present in this paper a flux-based model to describe an aphid-parasitoid system in a closed and spatially structured environment, i.e. a greenhouse. Derived from previous work and adapted to host-parasitoid interactions, our model represents the level of plant infestation as a continuous variable corresponding to the number of plants bearing a given density of pests at a given time. The variation of this variable is described by a partial differential equation. It is coupled to an ordinary differential equation and a delay-differential equation that describe the parasitized host population and the parasitoid population, respectively. We have applied our approach to the pest Aphis gossypii and to one of its parasitoids, Lysiphlebus testaceipes, in a melon greenhouse. Numerical simulations showed that, regardless of the number and distribution of hosts in the greenhouse, the aphid population is slightly larger if parasitoids display a type III rather than a type II functional response. However, the population dynamics depend on the initial distribution of hosts and the initial density of parasitoids released, which is interesting for biological control strategies. Sensitivity analysis showed that the delay in the parasitoid equation and the growth rate of the pest population are crucial parameters for predicting the dynamics. We demonstrate here that such a flux-based approach generates relevant predictions with a more synthetic formalism than a common plant-by-plant model. We also explain how this approach can be better adapted to test different management strategies and to manage crops of several greenhouses.     

Demographic analysis of continuous-time life-history models

I present a computational approach to calculate the population growth rate, its sensitivity to life-history parameters and associated statistics like the stable population distribution and the reproductive value for exponentially growing populations, in which individual life history is described as a continuous development through time. The method is generally applicable to analyse population growth and performance for a wide range of individual life-history models, including cases in which the population consists of different types of individuals or in which the environment is fluctuating periodically. It complements comparable methods developed for discrete-time dynamics modelled with matrix or integral projection models. The basic idea behind the method is to use Lotka's integral equation for the population growth rate and compute the integral occurring in that equation by integrating an ordinary differential equation, analogous to recently derived methods to compute steady-states of physiologically structured population models. I illustrate application of the method using a number of published life-history models.     

A master equation for a spatial population model with pair interactions

We derive a closed master equation for an individual-based population model in continuous space and time. The model and master equation include Brownian motion, reproduction via binary fission, and an interaction-dependent death rate moderated by a competition kernel. Using simulations we compare this individual-based model with the simplest approximation, the spatial logistic equation. In the limit of strong diffusion the spatial logistic equation is a good approximation to the model. However, in the limit of weak diffusion the spatial logistic equation is inaccurate because of spontaneous clustering driven by reproduction. The weak-diffusion limit can be partially analyzed using an exact solution of the master equation applicable to a competition kernel with infinite range. This analysis shows that in the case of a top-hat kernel, reducing the diffusion can increase the total population. For a Gaussian kernel, reduced diffusion invariably reduces the total population. These theoretical results are confirmed by simulation.     

What is the economic threshold of soybean aphids (Hemiptera: Aphididae) in enemy-free space?

Soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is a serious pest of soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr., in the North Central United States. Current management recommendations rely on the application of insecticides based on an economic threshold (ET) of 250 aphids per plant. Natural enemies are important in slowing the increase of aphid populations and can prevent them from reaching levels that can cause economic losses. However, biological control of A. glycines is inconsistent and can be affected negatively by the intensity of agricultural activity. We measured the impact of a natural-enemy-free environment on the capacity of the current ET to limit yield loss. In 2008 and 2009, caged microplots were assigned to one of three treatments: plants kept aphid-free (referred to as the control), plants that experienced a population of 250 aphids per plant (integrated pest management [IPM]), and plants that experienced unlimited aphid population growth (unlimited). The population growth rate of aphids in the unlimited treatment for the 10 d after the application of insecticides to the IPM treatment was calculated using linear regression. The linear equation was solved to determine the mean number of days between the ET and the EIL for an aphid population in absence of predators. The number of days was determined to be 6.97 +/- 1.11 d. The 2-yr average yield for the IPM treatment was 99.93% of the control treatment. Our study suggests the current soybean aphid ET of 250 aphids per plant can effectively protect yield even if the impact of natural enemies is reduced.     

Extracellular noise-induced stochastic synchronization in heterogeneous quorum sensing network

Quorum sensing is a bacterial mechanism used to synchronize the coordinated response of a microbial population. Because quorum sensing in Gram-negative bacteria depends on release and detection of a diffusible signaling molecule (autoinducer) among a multicellular group, it is considered a simple form of cell-cell communication for the purposes of mathematical analysis. Stochastic equation systems have provided a common approach to model biochemical or biophysical processes. Recently, the effect of noise to synchronize a specific homogeneous quorum sensing network was successfully modeled using a stochastic equation system with fixed parameters. The question remains of how to model quorum sensing networks in a general setting. To address this question, we first set a stochastic equation system as a general model for a heterogeneous quorum sensing network. Then, using two relevant biophysical characteristics of Gram-negative bacteria (the permeability of the cell membrane to the autoinducer and the symmetry of autoinducer diffusion) we construct the solution of the stochastic equation system at an abstract level. The solution indicates that stable synchronization of a quorum sensing network is robustly induced by an environment with a heterogenous distribution of extracellular and intracellular noise. The synchronization is independent of the initial state of the system and is solely the result of the connectivity of the cell network established through the effects of extracellular noise.     

A rheostat model for a rapid and reversible form of imprinting-dependent evolution

The evolutionary advantages of genomic imprinting are puzzling. We propose that genomic imprinting evolved as a mechanism that maximizes the interindividual variability in the rates of gene expression for dosage-sensitive loci that, with minimal unrelated deleterious effects, can alter the phenotype over a wide continuum. We hypothesize (1) that genomic imprinting provides a previously suggested haploid selective advantage (HSA); (2) that many imprinted genes have evolved mechanisms that facilitate quantitative hypervariability (QH) of gene expression; (3) that the combination of HSA and QH makes possible a rapid and reversible form of imprinting-dependent evolution (IDE) that can mediate changes in phenotype; and (4) that this enhanced adaptability to a changing environment provides selective advantage to the population, as an assisted form of evolution. These mechanisms may have provided at least one of the driving forces for the evolution of genomic imprinting in mammals. The rheostat model suggests that both genetic and epigenetic variants can contribute to an integrated mechanism of mixed Mendelian and non-Mendelian inheritance and suggests the possibility that the majority of variants are not intrinsically deleterious but, depending on the environment, are each potentially advantageous. Moreover, this would be a reversible form of evolution, with the ability not only to protect a silent allele from selection for many generations but to reactivate and expand it in the population quickly.     

Theoretical considerations on the C-D effect in self-thinning plant populations

A model for describing the competition–density (C-D) effect in self-thinning populations was developed on the basis of the following three basic assumptions: (1) the growth of mean phytomass follows a general logistic equation; (2) final yield is independent of initial population density; and (3) there exists a functional relationship between actual and initial population densities at any given time. The resultant equation takes the same reciprocal form as the reciprocal equation of the C-D effect derived from Shinozaki–Kira's theory (i.e., the logistic theory of the C-D effect), which deals with the density effect in nonself-thinning populations. However, one of the two time-dependent coefficients is quite different in mathematical interpretation between the two reciprocal equations. The reciprocal equation for self-thinning populations is essentially the same as the reciprocal equation assumed in the derivation of the functional relationship between actual and initial population densities. The establishment of the reciprocal equation is supported by the empirical facts that the reciprocal relationship between mean phytomass and population density is discernible in not only nonself-thinning populations but also in self-thinning populations. The present model is expected to systematically interpret underlying mechanisms between the C-D effect, which is observed at a time constant among populations with various initial densities, and self-thinning, which is observed along a time continuum in a given population. Received: August 5, 1998 / Accepted: January 7, 1999