A mink-free GB: perspectives on eradicating American mink Neovison vison from Great Britain and its islands

This paper examines the case for, and plausibility of, eradicating American mink Neovison vison from mainland Great Britain and its associated offshore islands. This invasive species causes extensive damage to native fauna throughout Europe, and the UK Government is obliged to eradicate it, if feasible, under the Bern Convention. Current mink control buys time, but is patchy and dependent on substantial funding in perpetuity. If enacted, eradication would be cheaper in the long term and much more effective in preserving native wildlife. The methodology of an eradication campaign is explored, together with risks, challenges, and a tentative timeline and cost. We judge that mink eradication is now logistically feasible, due to technological developments and experience gained from landscape-scale control. Using live traps fitted with electronic sensors – ‘smart’ traps – as the primary means of catching mink would render the campaign efficient, humane and free of non-target mortality and negative environmental impacts. The ecological benefits of mink eradication would be profound, including greatly improving prospects for water vole Arvicola amphibius populations. Reinvasion is highly unlikely. The greatest logistical challenge is probably removing mink from Scottish west coast islands. Eradication might take around a decade and be dependent on co-ordination between many conservation, fishing, farming, and water-related organisations, together with the consent of landowners. By adding alarms to existing mink traps, land and water managers can pave the way to eradication now. A mink-free Great Britain would plausibly cost tens of millions of pounds, against which could be set the limitless future costs of mink control. Such a campaign would be by far the world's largest invasive predator eradication project by geographical area and would set a precedent for citizen-led conservation action globally. Regional trials would be extremely valuable in determining the costs and practicality of a GB-wide campaign.     

Prioritising islands in the United Kingdom and crown dependencies for the eradication of invasive alien vertebrates and rodent biosecurity

Invasive alien vertebrates (IAVs) pose a significant threat to island biodiversity worldwide, and their removal is an important nature conservation management goal. As methods advance, eradications from larger islands and of multiple species simultaneously are increasingly undertaken. Effective targeting to maximise conservation gain is important given limited resources. We build on existing prioritisation methods and use the islands of the UK and Crown Dependencies (UK) as an example of how vertebrate eradications might be prioritised and invasive-free status maintained through biosecurity. For each of the 9688 UK islands, we assessed ecological importance for native vertebrates and the anticipated impacts of the IAVs present to estimate the benefit of restoration based on the feasibility and sustainability of IAV eradications in relation to island size, human population and risk of unassisted reinvasion by swimming. As reinvasion poses a threat to the long-term benefits of eradication, we incorporated species-specific swimming distances and explored the effects of varying reinvasion probability from risk-averse to higher-risk strategies. The 25 islands that would benefit most from eradications were in Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Channel Islands. Our prioritisation method should be seen as an initial guide to identify islands that might benefit from intervention when faced with a large list of potential sites. Feasibility studies taking account of factors such as interspecific interactions, anthropogenic reinvasion, views of residents or ‘social feasibility’ and cost need to be undertaken before planning any eradication. We prioritised biosecurity for rat-free islands to highlight where comprehensive measures might be most beneficial.     

Vacated niches,competitive release and the community ecology of pathogen eradication

A recurring theme in the epidemiological literature on disease eradication is that each pathogen occupies an ecological niche, and eradication of one pathogen leaves a vacant niche that favours the emergence of new pathogens to replace it. However, eminent figures have rejected this view unequivocally, stating that there is no basis to fear pathogen replacement and even that pathogen niches do not exist. After exploring the roots of this controversy, I propose resolutions to disputed issues by drawing on broader ecological theory, and advance a new consensus based on robust mechanistic principles. I argue that pathogen eradication (and cessation of vaccination) leads to a ‘vacated niche’, which could be re-invaded by the original pathogen if introduced. Consequences for other pathogens will vary, with the crucial mechanisms being competitive release, whereby the decline of one species allows its competitors to perform better, and evolutionary adaptation. Hence, eradication can cause a quantitative rise in the incidence of another infection, but whether this leads to emergence as an endemic pathogen depends on additional factors. I focus on the case study of human monkeypox and its rise following smallpox eradication, but also survey how these ideas apply to other pathogens and discuss implications for eradication policy.     

Impacts of rodent eradication on seed predation and plant community biomass on a tropical atoll

Invasive rodent eradications are frequently undertaken to curb island biodiversity loss. However, the breadth of rodents’ ecological impact, even after eradication, is not always fully recognized. For example, the most widespread invasive rodent, the black rat (Rattus rattus), while omnivorous, eats predominantly seeds and fruit. Yet, the effects of seed predation release after eradication on plant communities and ecological functions are not well understood, posing a gap for island restoration. We examined the role of seed predation release following black rat eradication in changes to tree composition and aboveground biomass across an islet network (Palmyra Atoll) in the Central Pacific. We conducted repeated surveys of seed, juvenile, and adult tree biomass and survival in permanent vegetation plots before and after the eradication of rats. We observed a 95% reduction in seed predation for an introduced, previously cultivated tree population (Cocos nucifera). Juvenile tree biomass of all species increased 14‐fold, with C. nucifera increasing the most, suggesting that eradication increased this tree's competitive advantage. Indeed, based on stage‐structured demographic models, rat eradication led to a 10% increase in C. nucifera population growth rate. The effect of invasive rodent seed predation varies considerably among the plant species in a community and can shift competitive dynamics, sometimes in favor of invasive plants. These bottom‐up effects should be considered in evaluating the costs and benefits of eradication. Documenting the variation in invasive rodent diet items, along with long‐term surveys, can help prioritize island eradications where restoration is most likely to be successful.     

Differential population responses of native and alien rodents to an invasive predator,habitat alteration and plant masting

Invasive species and anthropogenic habitat alteration are major drivers of biodiversity loss. When multiple invasive species occupy different trophic levels, removing an invasive predator might cause unexpected outcomes owing to complex interactions among native and non-native prey. Moreover, external factors such as habitat alteration and resource availability can affect such dynamics. We hypothesized that native and non-native prey respond differently to an invasive predator, habitat alteration and bottom-up effects. To test the hypothesis, we used Bayesian state-space modelling to analyse 8-year data on the spatio-temporal patterns of two endemic rat species and the non-native black rat in response to the continual removal of the invasive small Indian mongoose on Amami Island, Japan. Despite low reproductive potentials, the endemic rats recovered better after mongoose removal than did the black rat. The endemic species appeared to be vulnerable to predation by mongooses, whose eradication increased the abundances of the endemic rats, but not of the black rat. Habitat alteration increased the black rat''s carrying capacity, but decreased those of the endemic species. We propose that spatio-temporal monitoring data from eradication programmes will clarify the underlying ecological impacts of land-use change and invasive species, and will be useful for future habitat management.     

Some ethical issues arising from polio eradication programmes in India

The World Health Organisation's programme for the eradication of poliomyelitis as currently practised in India raises many ethical issues. In this paper we concentrate on just two. The first is the balance to be struck between the risks and benefits generated by the eradication programme itself. The issue of risks and benefits arises in relation to the choice between two different vaccine types available for polio programmes: oral polio vaccine (OPV) and inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). OPV is the vaccine currently used in the eradication campaign in India. We argue that given the current risks/benefits profile of this vaccine, there is an urgent need to review the programme and take remedial action to address existing problems (at least in India). The second issue we discuss is the fact that there is little effort to gain the informed consent of the parents of vaccinated children, as they are not currently told about the potential limitations of OPV or the possibility of vaccine-induced harm. We suggest that such a policy might be justifiable, given the importance of polio eradication, but only if there is a system of compensation for vaccine-induced harm as part of the eradication programme itself. There is a real danger that if these issues are not addressed then public trust in the eradication programme and vaccination programmes as a whole will be lost.     

Evaluation of weed eradication programs: the delimitation of extent

Eradication is a management strategy that can provide substantial ecological and economic benefits by eliminating incursions of pest organisms. In contrast to eradication efforts that target other pests, weed eradication programs can be very protracted owing to the presence of persistent seed banks and difficulties in detecting the target. Hence there is a need to develop criteria to assist in the evaluation of progress towards eradication. Knowledge of the extent of a weed incursion (the ‘delimitation’ criterion) is considered fundamental for eradication success, as an incursion will progress from any infestations that remain undetected and thus uncontrolled. This criterion is examined with regard to eradication programs targeting Bassia scoparia L. A.J. Scott [= Kochia scoparia L. Schrader], Chondrilla juncea L. (both in Western Australia) and Orobanche ramosa L. in South Australia. The B. scoparia incursion, which has been eradicated, was largely delimited within 12 months of the inception of its eradication program. In contrast, the Western Australian C. juncea incursion has never been delimited, owing to insufficient investment in surveillance during an eradication program spanning 30 years. An exponential decrease in the detection ratio (infested area detected/area searched) over time suggests that delimitation has been approached within 6 years of the inception of the eradication program for O. ramosa. An effective surveillance program is essential for achieving delimitation of a weed incursion.     

Piscivorous fishes diet dominated by the Asian cyprinid invader,topmouth gudgeon (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudorasbora parva</Emphasis>)

Predation on the non-native cyprinid, Pseudorasbora parva, was reported during an annual study in a small connecting canal about 40 km south of Brno, Czech Republic. Two cyprinid fish species (Pseudorasbora parva, Rutilus rutilus) were identified in the diet of 23 piscivores belonging to three native fishes (Perca fluviatilis, Sander lucioperca, Esox lucius). The relative abundance of prey fishes changed seasonally and was dominated by the topmouth gudgeon in spring. Thereafter roach incidence continuously increased. In contrast, topmouth gudgeon was found to be a more sized-available prey and was the most dominant prey species in the diet of all piscivorous fishes during the whole season. Strong piscivory towards this alien might be beneficial for its eradication or control to support ecological integrity in natural and modified seminatural habitats.     

Vaccine refusal and the endgame: walking the last mile first

As multiple papers within this special issue illustrate, the dynamics of disease eradication are different from disease control. When it comes to disease eradication, ‘the last mile is longest’. For social and ecological reasons such as vaccine refusal, further ending incidence of a disease when it has reached low levels is frequently complex. Issues of non-compliance within a target population often influence the outcome of disease eradication efforts. Past eradication efforts confronted such obstacles towards the tail end of the campaign, when disease incidence was lowest. This article provides a comparison of non-compliance within polio, measles and smallpox campaigns, demonstrating the tendency of vaccine refusal to rise as disease incidence falls. In order to overcome one of the most intractable challenges to eradication, future disease eradication efforts must prioritize vaccine refusal from the start, i.e. ‘walk the last mile first’.     

Evaluation of machine learning methods for predicting eradication of aquatic invasive species

In the work, we evaluate the performance of machine learning approaches for predicting successful eradication of aquatic invasive species (AIS) and assess the extent to which eradication of an invasive species depends on the certain specified ecological features of the target ecosystem and/or features that characterize the planned intervention. We studied the outcomes of 143 planned attempts for eradicating AIS, where each attempt was described by ecological and eradication-strategy-related features of the target ecosystem. We considered several machine learning approaches to determine whether one could produce a classifier that accurately predicts weather an invasive species will be eradicated. To assess each learner’s performance, we examined its tenfold cross-validated prediction accuracy as well as the false positive rate, the F-measure, and the Area Under the ROC Curve. We also used Kaplan–Meier survival analysis to determine which features are relevant to predicting the time required for each eradication program. Across the five typical machine learning approaches, our analysis suggests that learners trained by the decision tree work well, and have the best performance. In particular, by examining the trained decision tree model, we found that if an occupied area was not large and/or containments of AIS dispersal were employed, the eradication of AIS was likely to be successful. We also trained decision tree models over only the ecological features and found that their performances were comparable with that of models trained using all features. As our trained decision tree models are accurate, decision makers can use them to estimate the result of the proposed actions before they commit to which specific strategy should be applied.     

Rapid proliferation of an endemic galaxiid following eradication of an alien piscivore (Perca fluviatilis) from a reservoir

Following the complete eradication of the alien piscivorous perch Perca fluviatilis from a potable reservoir, the abundance of the endemic western minnow Galaxias occidentalis, which was previously undetectable prior to the initial eradication event, increased dramatically. The study reveals the potential of reservoirs to act as ecological refuges and has implications for understanding the relative effects of alien fishes v. habitat alteration on native freshwater fishes.     

Efficacy of Clostridium butyricum preparation concomitantly with Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy in relation to changes in the intestinal microbiota

Antibiotic associated diarrhea due to human intestinal microbiota abnormalities is a side effect of H. pylori eradication therapy. We examined intestinal microbiota changes during H. pylori eradication therapy and the preventive effect of CBM588 as a probiotic agent. Nineteen patients with gastro-duodenal ulcer were randomly divided into three groups: group A (without probiotics), group B (with regular doses of CBM588) and group C (with double doses of CBM588). The incidence of diarrhea and soft stools during H. pylori eradication therapy was 43% in group A and 14% in group B, while none of the patients in group C reported diarrhea or soft stools. Both bacterial counts and detection rates of bifidobacteria and/or obligate anaerobe were decreased by eradication therapy. However, bacterial counts of obligate anaerobes in group C were significantly higher than in group A ( P  < 0.05). Additionally, during eradication therapy C. difficile toxin A was detected in both group A and group B but not in group C.
In conclusion, these results indicate that H. pylori eradication therapy induces antibiotic associated diarrhea due to abnormalities in intestinal microbiota and/or C. difficile . However, these side effects might be prevented by probiotics.     

Late stage dynamics of a successful feral goat eradication from the UNESCO World Heritage site of Aldabra Atoll,Seychelles

Feral goats Capra hircus, considered among the world’s most destructive invasive mammals, were introduced to Aldabra Atoll, a UNESCO World Heritage site in the Seychelles, before 1878. An eradication programme to remove goats from Aldabra was initiated in 1987, after severe ecological impacts were recorded. Eradication and control efforts continued intermittently for the next 20 years, and a final campaign was launched in 2007 using the Judas goat method. We present the methods, eradication dynamics, outcomes and financial costs of the final eradication campaign between 2007 and 2012. This effort was divided into three phases; (1) establishment of Judas goats and intensive hunting (4 months); (2) monitoring of Judas goats (4 years); and (3) Judas goat elimination and verification of success (8 months). In the focal 5-year period, 227 goats were culled (of 2297 across the entire 25-year period); 202 in phase 1, 21 in phase 2, and four remaining Judas goats in phase 3. The eradication was completed and confirmed successful in August 2012, following the use of multiple measures to confirm the absence of goats. The total cost of the eradication was US$ 185,105, an average of US$ 815/goat, or US$ 31/ha. The eradication, although ultimately successful, posed a unique combination of challenges. We discuss key lessons learned and put the project in context of other major island goat eradications. The financial details, context and lessons are expected to be of value to future practitioners.     

The allogeneic response and tumor immunity

The strong allogeneic response to donor MHC molecules in transplantation and the weak response to tumor antigens represent two important and divergent but potentially interactive immune responses. A patient's response to allogeneic MHC molecules might promote an effective T-cell response to self MHC-restricted tumor peptides and the possibilities for this are discussed here. These allogeneic responses might successfully be harnessed to promote the immune eradication of metastatic cancer.     

Examining Private Landowners’ Knowledge Systems for an Invasive Species

Shared ecological knowledge about the impacts of biological invasions can facilitate the collective action necessary to achieve desired management outcomes. Since its introduction to an island archipelago in South America, the North American beaver has caused major changes to the ecosystem. We examined landowners’ mental models of how beavers impact ecosystem services in riparian areas to understand the potential to implement a large-scale eradication program. We used ethnographic interviews to characterize individual landowners’ perceptions about beaver-caused changes to ecosystems and landowners’ wellbeing, and examined the degree to which they are shared. While the eradication initiative focuses on ecosystem integrity, landowners considered impacts on provisioning services to be most salient. Landowners did not have a highly shared causal model of beaver impacts, which indicates a diverse knowledge system. This lack of consensus on how beavers impact riparian areas provides some optimism for garnering support for eradication, and also offers insights into challenges with mental modeling methodologies.     

Heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) in gastric adaptation to aspirin in Helicobacter pylori infection.

We have recently shown that adaptation of gastric mucosa to aspirin (ASA) is disturbed in Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)-infected human stomach, but can be restored by eradication of the bacterium. The aim of this study was 1) to evaluate the influence of H. pylori on expression of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) during ASA ingestion in these subjects and in mice model and 2) to evaluate, whether altered HSP70 expression might be associated with different adaptation to ASA in H. pylori-positive and eradicated subjects. The gastric mucosal HSP 70 gene expression was determined by quantitative RT-PCR and Western blot and immunohistochemistry during 14 days of ASA ingestion (1 g bid) in the same 8 subjects before and 3 months after successful eradication of H. pylori. In addition, HSP70 mRNA and protein expression were examined in 30 mice without and with H. pylori infection and eradication. During 14 days of ASA treatment, human H. pylori-infected mucosa revealed a decrease of HSP70 expression, while after eradication a higher expression and further increase of HSP70 expression during ASA ingestion were observed. Mice inoculated with H. pylori also exhibited decreased gastric mucosal HSP70 mRNA expression that was restored after eradication therapy. Decreased basal and ASA-induced expression of HSP70 may partly be responsible for impaired gastric adaptation to ASA in H. pylori-positive subjects. We conclude that 1. The HSP70 gene and protein expression is reduced during infection with H. pylori in men and mice and that gastric adaptation to ASA in H. pylori eradicated subjects is accompanied by increased HSP70 expression; 2. It is reasonable to assume that decreased HSP70 expression might contribute to disturbed gastric adaptation in H. pylori infection in humans and 3. The expression of HSP70 plays an important role in the mechanism of gastric adaptation to ASA and that H. pylori infection interferes with this adaptation due to decrease of HSP70 expression in gastric mucosal cells.     

A pleasing consequence of Norway rat eradication: two shrew species recover

Four to 10 years after the successful eradication of the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) from three islands of the Sept–Îles Archipelago and one in the Molène Archipelago (Brittany, France), the abundance index of the lesser white‐toothed shrew (Crocidura suaveolens) increased by factors of 7–25, depending on the island and the year. Moreover, in the same region, the abundance index of the greater white‐toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) on Tomé Island increased by factors of 9 and 17, one and two years after the Norway rat eradication, respectively. The maximum variation of the abundance index for the lesser white‐toothed shrew during seven years on the rat‐free island of Béniguet in the same region was a factor of only 2.5. Moreover, the distribution of the lesser white‐toothed shrew on Bono island, restricted before the eradication to two steep areas with few rats, increased and encompassed virtually the entire island four years after rats disappeared. These results suggest strong detrimental interactions between the introduced Norway rat and the two Crocidura shrew species on temperate oceanic islands. However, our data do not indicate the ecological mechanisms at work in these interactions. The main reason this shrew recovery was detected after rat eradication was the inclusion in the eradication protocol of the evaluation of impacts on the local biota of eliminating alien species. The rigor of the sampling procedure was also crucial to this discovery. This example demonstrates that an eradication operation can be extremely useful for both scientists and managers if it is planned as a research project.     

Implications of goat eradication on the survivorship of the Galapagos hawk

Non-native mammals cause ecological disasters in island ecosystems and their eradication is usually considered beneficial to native biodiversity. Goats (Capra hircus) were introduced to Santiago Island, Galapagos, Ecuador, in the early 1800s, and their numbers increased to about 100,000 by 1970. A goat eradication campaign initiated in 2002 was successful, eliminating the last individuals in 2006. To evaluate the effects of goat eradication, between 1998 and 2010 we studied the Galapagos hawk (Buteo galapagoensis) population on Santiago Island before, during, and after eradication. We used a 12-year data set in a capture–mark–recapture analysis to estimate the apparent survivorship of territorial adults in 33 breeding territories, and a 5-year data set to estimate the population sizes of the floater (non-territorial) fraction of the population. Juvenile floaters showed a drastic decline starting in 2006 and continuing in 2007, 2008, and 2010, which we attribute to the completion of goat eradication in 2006, and subsequent habitat changes. We found a significant decline in adult survivorship after the goat eradication program. Additionally, group size positively affected adult survivorship in this cooperatively polyandrous raptor, presumably reflecting the benefit of shared defense and offspring provisioning during harsher conditions. The changes in the hawk population after goat eradication are an example of unforeseen consequences of a restoration program, and we hypothesize that these changes are adjustments towards a new equilibrium under the current ecosystem characteristics and capacity. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Dramatic increase in the Zembretta Yelkouan shearwater breeding population following ship rat eradication spurs interest in managing a 1500-year old invasion

The ship rat (Rattus rattus) was introduced 1,500 years ago to the Zembra Archipelago (Tunisia) and was eradicated in October–November 2009 on two of its islands, Zembretta and Zembrettina. This eradication was performed 2 years after the discovery of a small colony of Yelkouan shearwaters (Puffinus yelkouan), a species recently up-listed to the vulnerable IUCN extinction risk category. For 2 years before and 3 years after rat eradication, the Zembretta Yelkouan shearwater breeding colony was checked yearly at the end of the breeding season. The number of recorded breeding pairs reaching 176 and 145, respectively, increases of 10.4 and 8.5-fold two and 3 years after rat eradication. This experiment shows that eradication of an ancient introduced ship rat population has dramatically improved the Zembretta Yelkouan shearwater breeding population very quickly. This result suggests that managing even long-introduced populations might well be fruitful.     

Threats and benefits of invasive alien plant species on pollinators

Invasive alien plant species are usually disliked due to their high pressure on native communities. However, their ecological effects on pollinators are complex: some species provide abundant floral resources, boosting the number of pollinators, while they often disrupt plant-pollinator interactions by outcompeting native plants. Our direct knowledge is mainly based on single-species studies, while understanding the mechanism of these complex ecological interactions needs multi-species field-based approaches. It is also imperative to clarify the pros and cons of invasive plants and drivers of invasion from the perspective of pollinators. We conducted a standard protocol-driven regional study in Central and Eastern Europe, comparing 6-7 invaded and non-invaded sites of 12 herbaceous invasive plant species. We sampled floral resources, bees, and hoverflies before and during the flowering of the invasive plants. We analysed the effects of plant invasion at the invasive plant species level and in combined analyses, and tested whether the life span (perennial vs. annual) and flowering time (early-, middle-, and late-flowering) of invasive plants affect the abundance, species richness, diversity and species composition of native plants and pollinators. The combined analyses showed lower abundance and species richness of flowering plants and pollinators before, and higher abundance of both during the flowering of invasive plants in invaded sites. However, invasive plants had significant species-specific effects. Perennial invasive plants had a stronger negative impact on floral resources and pollinators already before their flowering compared to annuals. Flowering time of invasive plants affected the pollinator guilds differently. We suggest that in certain critical time periods of the year, invasive plants might provide the dominant foraging resources for pollinators in an invaded ecosystem. But, they also often cause significant losses in native floral resources over the year. Instead of simple eradication, careful preparation and consideration might be needed during removal of invasive plants.