An elusive paleodemography? A comparison of two methods for estimating the adult age distribution of deaths at late Classic Copan,Honduras

Comparison of different adult age estimation methods on the same skeletal sample with unknown ages could forward paleodemographic inference, while researchers sort out various controversies. The original aging method for the auricular surface (Lovejoy et al., 1985a) assigned an age estimation based on several separate characteristics. Researchers have found this original method hard to apply. It is usually forgotten that before assigning an age, there was a seriation, an ordering of all available individuals from youngest to oldest. Thus, age estimation reflected the place of an individual within its sample. A recent article (Buckberry and Chamberlain, 2002) proposed a revised method that scores theses various characteristics into age stages, which can then be used with a Bayesian method to estimate an adult age distribution for the sample. Both methods were applied to the adult auricular surfaces of a Pre-Columbian Maya skeletal population from Copan, Honduras and resulted in age distributions with significant numbers of older adults. However, contrary to the usual paleodemographic distribution, one Bayesian estimation based on uniform prior probabilities yielded a population with 57% of the ages at death over 65, while another based on a high mortality life table still had 12% of the individuals aged over 75 years. The seriation method yielded an age distribution more similar to that known from preindustrial historical situations, without excessive longevity of adults. Paleodemography must still wrestle with its elusive goal of accurate adult age estimation from skeletons, a necessary base for demographic study of past populations.     

The influence of body size on adult skeletal age estimation methods

Accurate age estimations are essential to archaeological and forensic analyses. However, reliability for adult skeletal age estimations is poor, especially for individuals over the age of 40 years. This is the first study to show that body size influences skeletal age estimation. The ??can et al., Lovejoy et al., Buckberry and Chamberlain, and Suchey‐Brooks age methods were tested on 764 adult skeletons from the Hamann‐Todd and William Bass Collections. Statures ranged from 1.30 to 1.93 m and body masses ranged from 24.0 to 99.8 kg. Transition analysis was used to evaluate the differences in the age estimations. For all four methods, the smallest individuals have the lowest ages at transition and the largest individuals have the highest ages at transition. Short and light individuals are consistently underaged, while tall and heavy individuals are consistently overaged. When femoral length and femoral head diameter are compared with the log‐age model, results show the same trend as the known stature and body mass measurements. The skeletal remains of underweight individuals have fewer age markers while those of obese individuals have increased surface degeneration and osteophytic lipping. Tissue type and mechanical loading have been shown to affect bone turnover rates, and may explain the differing patterns of skeletal aging. From an archaeological perspective, the underaging of light, short individuals suggests the need to revisit the current research consensus on the young mortality rates of past populations. From a forensic perspective, understanding the influence of body size will impact efforts to identify victims of mass disasters, genocides, and homicides. Am J Phys Anthropol 156:35–57, 2015 © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Cementum annulations,age estimation,and demographic dynamics in Mid-Holocene foragers of North India

One of the principal problems facing palaeodemography is age estimation in adult skeletons and the centrist tendency that affects many age estimation methods by artificially increasing the proportion of individuals in the 30–45-year age category. Several recent publications have indicated that cementum annulations are significantly correlated with known age of extraction or death. This study addresses the question of how demographic dynamics are altered for an archaeological sample when cementum-based age estimates are used as opposed to those obtained via conventional macroscopic methods. Age pyramids were constructed and demographic profiles were compared for the early Holocene skeletal population from Damdama (India). The results demonstrate that the use of cementum annulations for age estimation in only a subset of the skeletal sample has a significant impact on the demographic profile with regard to specific parameters such as mean age at death and life expectancy at birth. This confirms the importance of using cementum annulations to refine age estimates in archaeological samples, which, when combined with a fertility-centred approach to demography, can provide new insights into population dynamics in the past.     

Estimating mortality in skeletal populations: influence of the growth rate on the interpretation of levels and trends during the transition to agriculture

Traditional paleodemographic methods of estimating mortality have been based on unrealistic assumptions about the prevalence of closed and stationary populations. When a living closed population was growing, the mean age at death of its skeletal survivors will be shifted below its true life expectancy. For declining populations, the mean age at death will be higher than true underlying life expectancy at birth. The faster the rate of growth, the larger and more curvilinear is the displacement. Mortality estimates can only be extracted from skeletal populations via an independent estimate of the growth rate. Fertility levels, however, can be estimated directly. The empirical importance of growth rate-dependent mortality estimates is demonstrated by reinterpreting mean-age-at-death data from several populations before and after the agricultural revolution; with detailed consideration given to the Old World populations of Acsadi and Nemeskeri and a New World population from central Illinois.     

Estimating age from adult occlusal wear: A modification of the miles method

The Miles method of age estimation relies on molar wear to estimate age and is widely used in bioarcheological contexts. However, because the method requires physical seriation and a sample of subadults to estimate wear rates it cannot be applied to many samples. Here, we modify the Miles method by scoring occlusal wear and estimating molar wear rates from adult wear gradients in 311 hunter‐gatherers and provide formulae to estimate the error associated with each age estimate. A check of the modified method in a subsample (n = 22) shows that interval estimates overlap in all but one case with age categories estimated from traditional methods; this suggests that the modifications have not hampered the ability of the Miles method to estimate age even in heterogeneous samples. As expected, the error increases with age and in populations with smaller sample sizes. These modifications allow the Miles method to be applied to skeletal samples of adult crania that were previously only amenable to cranial suture age estimation, and importantly, provide a measure of uncertainty for each age estimate. Am J Phys Anthropol 149:181–192, 2012. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

年龄鉴定的转换分析法及其在月家庄墓地人骨中的应用

转换分析是一种基于贝叶斯统计的人骨年龄鉴定新方法,具有综合多种年龄标志物、不受参考样本影响、适用于老年个体等优势。本文将其用于陕西洛川月家庄墓地人骨年龄鉴定并与传统方法进行对比。结果表明,两种方法构建出的人群死亡年龄结构、生存过程有显著差异：转换分析得到的最高寿命、平均死亡年龄明显高于传统方法,更多个体可存活至中老年。两种方法鉴定出的年龄差值受样本保存状况、年龄阶段的影响,存在结构性差别。转换分析是人骨年龄鉴定方法的重大创新,使鉴定过程标准化、鉴定误差定量化。未来需使用一些年龄已知的个体开展更多验证研究,以评估该方法对我国人骨样本的适用性及不同软件间的差异。     

Skeletal age determination by nandibular histomorphometry

50 undecalcified cross sections of mandible of 50 individuals of known sex and age (32 males and 18 females) were examined. The sample age range was 18–97 years. The avnumber of secondary osteons (X1) and average number of fragmented osteons (X2) were computed to correlate them with chronological age at death (Y). Linear regression analyses showed that in this age group, age at death could be estimated with a S.E. of ±6.42 years for the variable X1 and a S.E. of ±11.45 years for the variable X2. Some remarks about the reliability of bone methods for age at death estimation are also made.     

Manufactured populations: What do contemporary reference skeletal collections represent? A comparative study using the Maxwell Museum documented collection

The extent to which archaeological or cemetery skeletal collections accurately represent the population from which they were drawn cannot be known. The creation of documented or forensic skeletal collections, derived from donation or autopsy, was intended to overcome many of the problems inherent in archaeological populations, yet it is misleading to assume such collections represent a specific or defined population. This study compares the documented skeletal collection curated at the Maxwell Museum to annual demographic information from three relevant populations: (i) the living population of New Mexico (NM), (ii) the deceased of NM, and (iii) the subset of decedents who undergo a medicolegal death investigation or autopsy. Results indicate that the Maxwell Documented collection differs significantly from all three populations in every variable examined: age, sex, ethnicity/race, cause, and manner of death. Collection development that relies on body donation or retention of unclaimed bodies under coroner/medical examiner statutes results in a biased sample, with significant overrepresentation of males, Whites, the elderly, those who die unnatural deaths and individuals with antemortem traumatic injury or surgical intervention. Equally problematic is the perception that the collection has documented race or ethnicity, when in fact only 17% was self-reported, while the affinity of the remaining individuals was determined by pathologists or other observers. Caution is warranted in how this and similar collections are used and interpreted by researchers. Although documented reference collections are useful in developing methods of estimating age or sex, they are not a proxy for modern or racially/ethnically defined populations.     

Brief communication: A probabilistic approach to age estimation from infracranial sequences of maturation

Infracranial sequences of maturation are commonly used to estimate the age at death of nonadult specimens found in archaeological, paleoanthropological, or forensic contexts. Typically, an age assessment is made by comparing the degree of long‐bone epiphyseal fusion in the target specimen to the age ranges for different stages of fusion in a reference skeletal collection. While useful as a first approximation, this approach has a number of shortcomings, including the potential for “age mimicry,” being highly dependent on the sample size of the reference sample and outliers, not using the entire fusion distribution, and lacking a straightforward quantitative way of combining age estimates from multiple sites of fusion. Here we present an alternative probabilistic approach based on data collected on 137 individuals, ranging in age from 7‐ to 29‐years old, from a documented skeletal collection from Coimbra, Portugal. We then use cross validation to evaluate the accuracy of age estimation from epiphyseal fusion. While point estimates of age can, at least in some circumstances, be both accurate and precise based on the entire skeleton, or many sites of fusion, there will often be substantial error in these estimates when they derive from one or only a few sites. Because a probabilistic approach to age estimation from epiphyseal fusion is computationally intensive, we make available a series of spreadsheets or computer programs that implement the approach presented here. Am J Phys Anthropol 142:655–664, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Effect of unsampled populations on the estimation of population sizes and migration rates between sampled populations

Current estimators of gene flow come in two methods; those that estimate parameters assuming that the populations investigated are a small random sample of a large number of populations and those that assume that all populations were sampled. Maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches that estimate the migration rates and population sizes directly using coalescent theory can easily accommodate datasets that contain a population that has no data, a so-called 'ghost' population. This manipulation allows us to explore the effects of missing populations on the estimation of population sizes and migration rates between two specific populations. The biases of the inferred population parameters depend on the magnitude of the migration rate from the unknown populations. The effects on the population sizes are larger than the effects on the migration rates. The more immigrants from the unknown populations that are arriving in the sample populations the larger the estimated population sizes. Taking into account a ghost population improves or at least does not harm the estimation of population sizes. Estimates of the scaled migration rate M (migration rate per generation divided by the mutation rate per generation) are fairly robust as long as migration rates from the unknown populations are not huge. The inclusion of a ghost population does not improve the estimation of the migration rate M; when the migration rates are estimated as the number of immigrants Nm then a ghost population improves the estimates because of its effect on population size estimation. It seems that for 'real world' analyses one should carefully choose which populations to sample, but there is no need to sample every population in the neighbourhood of a population of interest.     

Cladoceran birth and death rates estimates: experimental comparisons of egg-ratio methods

I. Birth and death rates of natural cladoceran populations cannot be measured directly. Estimates of these population parameters must be calculated using methods that make assumptions about the form of population growth. These methods generally assume that the population has a stable age distribution.
2. To assess the effect of variable age distributions, we tested six egg ratio methods for estimating birth and death rates with data from thirty-seven laboratory populations of Daphnia pulicaria. The populations were grown under constant conditions, but the initial age distributions and egg ratios of the populations varied. Actual death rates were virtually zero, so the difference between the estimated and actual death rates measured the error in both birth and death rate estimates.
3. The results demonstrate that unstable population structures may produce large errors in the birth and death rates estimated by any of these methods. Among the methods tested, Taylor and Slatkin's formula and Paloheimo's formula were most reliable for the experimental data.
4. Further analyses of three of the methods were made using computer simulations of growth of age-structured populations with initially unstable age distributions. These analyses show that the time interval between sampling strongly influences the reliability of birth and death rate estimates. At a sampling interval of 2.5 days (equal to the duration of the egg stage), Paloheimo's formula was most accurate. At longer intervals (7.5–10 days), Taylor and Slatkin's formula which includes information on population structure was most accurate.     

Estimating genetic correlations in natural populations

Information on the genetic correlation between traits provides fundamental insight into the constraints on the evolutionary process. Estimates of such correlations are conventionally obtained by raising individuals of known relatedness in artificial environments. However, many species are not readily amenable to controlled breeding programmes, and considerable uncertainty exists over the extent to which estimates derived under benign laboratory conditions reflect the properties of populations in natural settings. Here, non-invasive methods that allow the estimation of genetic correlations from phenotypic measurements derived from individuals of unknown relatedness are introduced. Like the conventional approach, these methods demand large sample sizes in order to yield reasonably precise estimates, and special precautions need to be taken to eliminate bias from shared environmental effects. Provided the sample consists of at least 20% or so relatives, informative estimates of the genetic correlation are obtainable with sample sizes of several hundred individuals, particularly if supplemental information on relatedness is available from polymorphic molecular markers.     

A comparative study of samples of the bivalve <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ruditapes philippinarum</Emphasis> (Adams et Reeve, 1850) from populations and shell assemblages

According to the results of a comparative analysis of the size and age structures of samples from a population of the bivalve mollusk Ruditapes philippinarum (Manila clam) and from shell assemblages of this species, the possibility of data acquisition on populations using samples from shell assemblages was assessed. A considerable coincidence of these parameters after taking the losses of small individuals during formation of shell assemblage into account, which depended on the location and conditions of assemblage formation, was recorded. Due to the good level of preservation of the shells of older individuals, the sample from the assemblage gave a more comprehensive appreciation of the maximum size and life span of the species than the sample of live mollusks from the natural habitat. Samples from shell assemblages may be used for growth rate estimation of clams without catching live individuals, as the results from studying the linear growth of mollusks based on samples from live populations and from shell assemblages did not differ significantly. Samples from many-year shell accumulations can also be useful for revealing the periods of the highest death rates, the most vulnerable periods in the ontogenesis of the mollusks, and, in some cases, the causes of their death.     

Testing the value of skeletal samples in demographic research: a comparison with vital registration samples

Critics of paleodemography have suggested that the science is so fraught with error that its demise must be close at hand. Among the problems suggested as unsolvable are representativeness of skeletal samples and inaccuray of skeletal aging techniques. A historical skeletal sample with supportive vital registration might afford the opportunity to test the validity of such criticism or at least to examine the extent of the above problems. In 1984, a skeletal sample of 296 individuals was excavated from a 19th century American poorhouse cemetery. Age at death was determined by macroscopic multivariate examination. Mortality records of 247 individuals who died during four years of the poorhouse's operation provide data for demographic comparisons with the skeletal sample. A comparison of life tables generated from each sample demostrates that there are no significant differences in the age at death structure, life expectancy (at birth: 30.7 in the mortality records and 32.6 from the skeletal sample), or survivorship between the two samples. Skeletal aging techniques can, therefore, provide a demographic picture that is similar in accuracy to that presented by vital registration records.     

Application of the anatomical method to estimate the maximum adult stature and the age‐at‐death stature

This study focuses on the age adjustment of statures estimated with the anatomical method. The research material includes 127 individuals from the Terry Collection. The cadaveric stature (CSTA)–skeletal height (SKH) ratios indicate that stature loss with age commences before SKH reduction. Testing three equations to estimate CSTA at the age at death and CSTA corrected to maximum stature from SKH indicates that the age correction of stature should reflect the pattern of age‐related stature loss to minimize estimation error. An equation that includes a continuous and linear age correction through the entire adult age range [Eq. (1)] results in curvilinear stature estimation error. This curvilinear stature estimation error can be largely avoided by applying a second linear equation [Eq. (2)] to only individuals older than 40 years. Our third equation [Eq. (3)], based on younger individuals who have not lost stature, can be used to estimate maximum stature. This equation can also be applied to individuals of unknown or highly uncertain age, because it provides reasonably accurate estimates until about 60/70 years at least for males. Am J Phys Anthropol 152:96–106, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

New method for estimation of adult skeletal age at death from the morphology of the auricular surface of the ilium

A new method for estimating skeletal age at death from the morphology of the auricular surface of the ilium is presented. It uses a multiple regression analysis with dummy variables, and is based on the examination of 700 modern Japanese skeletal remains with age records. The observer using this method needs only to check for the presence or absence of nine (for a male) or seven (for a female) features on the auricular surface and to select the parameter estimates of each feature, calculated by multiple regression analysis with dummy variables. The observer can obtain an estimated age from the sum of parameter estimates. It is shown that a fine granular texture of the auricular surface is typical of younger individuals, whereas a heavily porous texture is characteristic of older individuals, and that both of these features are very useful for estimating age. Our method is shown here to be more accurate than other methods, especially in the older age ranges. Since the auricular surface allows more expedient observations than other parts of the skeleton, this new method can be expected to improve the overall accuracy of estimating skeletal age at death.     

Sex determination using the scapula in New Kingdom skeletons from Tell El-Amarna

Both forensic and archaeological sciences use metric analysis of human skeletal remains for sex estimation of unknown individuals. Thomas Dwight first reported the utility of scapula metrics for sex estimation in 1894, and subsequent years have produced several techniques for sex estimation using scapula metrics. Levels of sexual dimorphism vary across time and space, making these methods not universally applicable. Novel discriminant functions for unique populations are thus necessary. The present study establishes metric standards for sex estimation for a New Kingdom Egyptian skeletal sample from Tell El-Amarna using scapular measurements. The sample for this research consists of 27 individuals (14 males; 13 females) whose sex estimate based on pelvic morphology is unambiguous. The five measurements showing the highest degree of sexual dimorphism (p ≤ 0.001) are used in the discriminant functions reported here: maximum length of the scapula, maximum length of the scapular spine, breadth of the infraspinous body, height of the glenoid fossa, and breadth of the glenoid fossa. The overall leave one out, cross-validated accuracy for the five reported discriminant functions ranges from 84.0 to 88.0%; similar to accuracies reported for the femur and humerus. Functions combining multiple variables produce higher accuracies than those based on single measurements. The unique population of Amarna, being comprised of emigrants from throughout Egypt, suggests these discriminant functions will have utility for Amarna period sites across the spatial distances of Egypt, and possibly the temporal range of the New Kingdom as a whole.     

Age estimation biases based on body size: the differential impacts of soft tissue on skeletal ageing

The aim of this research project is to explore the differential impacts of soft tissues on skeletal ageing and apply these findings to skeletal age estimation methods. Computed tomography (CT) scans of 412 size-selected individuals from Ontario, Canada, were assessed using an adapted pubic symphysis age estimation method. Individuals ranged from 20 to 79 years of age (mean = 49.46 years), with 208 males and 204 females. Almost 80 per cent of the sample was assigned to the correct age phase; those not correctly aged followed a similar pattern. Individuals with higher body mass, body mass index (BMI), circumference, and total fat area were over-aged and those with lower body mass, BMI, circumference, and total fat area were under-aged. High amounts of adipose tissue led to increased skeletal degeneration, but high amounts of muscle tissue did not have a protective effect. Skeletal elements were not reliable proxies for body mass; however, other morphological features may help identify individuals with high body mass from skeletal remains.     

Age determination from dental microstructure in juveniles

The crypts outside St Bride's Church, London, contain a documented collection of skeletal remains dating from the mid-18th century. Some of these remains became mixed during post-war restoration work on the church. The worst example of such mixing involves ten infants that were boxed all together with their corresponding coffin plates. All the infants were aged between 1 and 4 years at death. Recognized skeletal aging criteria proved unsuccessful in identifying the bodies. A more precise method of age estimation was utilized in order to separate these individuals. Age was determined using the incremental markers found in dental microstructure which are thought to be formed in circadian and circaseptan rhythms. The resulting age estimates were compared with the real ages obtained from the coffin plates and death certificates. Confident identification was achieved in eight out of ten cases. This study illustrates the potential value of a little-known aging method in circumstances where commonly used methods have proved unsuccessful. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Quick methods for evaluating survival of age-characterizable long-lived territorial birds

Survival is a key life-history trait in animals. However, most methods of survival estimation require substantial human and economic investment in the long term, particularly in species occurring in low densities, the case of most endangered species. An alternative to traditional recapture (CR) methods is estimation of adult survival based indirectly on either age ratios (AGR) or turnover rates (TOR) in territorial species. These 2 methods are applicable to bird species in which recruited individuals enter into the breeding population whilst still exhibiting the external traits that distinguish those animals from experienced adults. The main advantages of these methods are that survival can be easily estimated for all monitored individuals after just 1 or 2 breeding seasons and that disturbance to the species is minimized. The main constraints of indirect methods are that the assumptions are more restrictive than in CR methods, and survival estimates, although comparable between sites and years, may be biased. We used data from a long-term monitoring survey of 2 populations of the endangered Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata), one in Catalonia (NE Spain) and the other in Provence and Languedoc-Roussillon (SE France). We evaluated survival estimates using the AGR and TOR methods and compared them with CR methods and provide suitable corrections for refining survival estimates based on indirect methods. In Catalonia (2002–2008), survival was estimated at 0.84 by CR methods (SE = 0.047; n = 25 radio tagged eagles), at 0.86 by the corrected AGR method (SE = 0.011; n = 558 bird * year), and at 0.86 by the corrected TOR method (SE = 0.022; n = 547 bird * year). In France (1999–2008), survival was estimated at 0.88 by CR methods (SE = 0.040; n = 45 darvic banded eagles), at 0.87 by the corrected AGR method (SE = 0.015; n = 443 bird * year), and at 0.87 by the corrected TOR method (SE = 0.015; n = 438 bird * year). All analyses suggest that females survive better than males and that individuals from the French population survive better than individuals from the Catalan population. We conclude that indirect methods, which should not be regarded as a substitute of CR methods, will allow wildlife managers and researchers to estimate accurately adult survival in a territorial species over a short period of time and to monitor survival across populations over large geographic ranges and over time. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.