Impact of western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) on sweet corn and evaluation of insecticidal and cultural control options

The western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte, is an important pest of corn, Zea mays L., causing yield losses from root damage, plant lodging, and silk feeding. Because little is known about its impact on sweet corn, we conducted research to evaluate the combined effects of insecticide, planting date, and cultivar on root damage, plant lodging, and yield in central New York sweet corn. We also examined the influence of planting date and cultivar on the emergence of adult western corn rootworms. The research was conducted in 1994 and again in 1995 by using a split-split plot experimental design with insecticide as main plot, planting date as subplot, and cultivar as sub-subplot. The effect of cultivar on beetle emergence was not significant. Root damage was not correlated with adult emergence in 1994 but was positively correlated in 1995. In 1994, there was no interaction of the main factors, and all factors had a significant impact on root damage. In 1995 there was an interaction of insecticide and planting date, and of cultivar and planting date. Generally, root damage was reduced by insecticide and later planting. Plant lodging was affected by the interaction of insecticide and planting date, and the interaction of cultivar and planting date, for both years of the study. As with root damage, lodging was reduced with insecticide treatment and later planting but also was dependent on cultivar. In 1994 and especially in 1995, silk clipping by adult western corn rootworms precluded much inference about how yield was influenced by larval feeding damage on roots. The number of emerging western corn rootworm adults was lower and later in later plantings.     

Emergence of adult northern and western corn rootworms (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) following reduced soil insecticide applications

A 3-yr investigation was conducted in commercial corn, Zea mays (L.), fields in eastern South Dakota to determine how reduced application rates of planting-time soil insecticides would influence temporal emergence patterns and survival of northern and western corn rootworms, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, and D. virgifera virgifera LeConte, respectively. Beetle emergence was monitored at 2-d intervals throughout the entire adult emergence period of three growing seasons from corn plots treated with planting-time applications of labeled (1X) and reduced (0.5 and 0.75X) application rates of terbufos, tefluthrin, and chlorethoxyfos. No consistent insecticide- or rate-related impacts on mean total emergence per trap were recorded for any of the compounds investigated. However, terbufos applications resulted in a 52% reduction in the number of beetles captured per trap, 53% reduction in maximum rate of adult emergence, and a 59% reduction in overall rate of emergence over time for male D. virgifera during 1994. Terbufos also significantly extended the time required for emergence to peak and linear emergence of female D. virgifera to end in 1994. Tefluthrin applications delayed onset, end, and time of maximum emergence of female D. barberi by 9.9, 14.1, and 12 d, respectively, during 1993. Tefluthrin also reduced emergence rates over time for male (38%) and female (46%) D. barberi during 1994. Overall, application rate was inconsequential regarding total emergence, seasonal emergence pattern, or level of plant protection provided for all insecticides we tested in this 3-yr investigation. Our findings demonstrate that, if properly applied, the reduced application rates used in this study provide adequate root protection and will not significantly impact the biology of these pest species.     

Long-term seasonal abundance patterns of Helicoverpa zea and Heliothis virescens (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in the Texas High Plains

Bollworm, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), and tobacco budworm, Heliothis virescens (F.), male adult (moth) activities were monitored between 1982 and 1995 by using sex pheromone traps in the Texas High Plains. Moths were monitored weekly from early March to mid-November near Lubbock and Halfway, two prominent cotton production areas in the Texas High Plains region. Based on trap captures, the bollworm-budworm complex consisted of approximately 98% bollworms and approximately 2% tobacco budworms. Seasonal activity patterns varied between location for bollworm but not for tobacco budworm. The 14-yr average (+/- SE) bollworm moth abundance (moths per trap per week) at Lubbock was significantly higher (226.5 +/- 10.4) compared with that at Halfway (153.7 +/- 8.1). Correlation analyses showed a significant positive relationship between moth abundance and average weekly temperatures, whereas a significant negative relationship was observed between moth abundance and average weekly wind velocity for both species. Analyses also showed a positive correlation between moth abundance and cumulative degree-days (> 0.0 degrees C) from 1 January. A strong positive relationship was observed between moth abundance and weekly average precipitation for both species. Average weekly abundances were positively correlated between adjacent months during most of the active cotton fruiting season (June-September). However, the relationship between populations that contributed to the overwintering generation and the following spring populations varied between species and study sites. Nevertheless, data from this study indicated that late-season moth catches could be indicative of the dynamics of the early-season moth catches the following year in the High Plains. The mean population abundance curve based on 14-yr averages showed two bollworm population peaks at Lubbock, but only one peak at Halfway. Separate degree-day-based models were developed to describe long-term seasonal abundance patterns of bollworm moths for the Lubbock and Halfway sites.     

Assessing the distribution of the Argentine ant using physiological data

To address the lack of physiological approaches in current models assessing the potential distribution of the Argentine ant, we used data on brood development from distinct sources to evaluate a series of degree-day models for Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), and data on the brood survival and oviposition rates to develop a worker production model. The degree-day model generated using data from Newell and Barber (1913) and Benois (1973) indicated that the number of degree-days required for the complete development from egg to adult worker was 445.4 degree-days above a threshold of 15.9 °C, while the model calibrated using data from Abril et al. (2008, in press) suggested 599.5 degree-days above 18.4 °C. Comparisons between the degree-day model predictions and the currently known distribution of the Argentine ant suggested that the one generated using data from Newell and Barber (1913) and Benois (1973) overestimated the presence of the species, while the one calibrated using data from Abril et al. (2008; in press) underestimated it. On the other hand, the predicted daily net production of Argentine ant workers generated by the worker production model predicted more accurately the distribution of the Argentine ant than the degree-day models. Our results show the utility of incorporating physiological data in models to assess the distribution limits of the Argentine ant, which up to date have taken little account of the physiological needs of the species in terms of its establishment and dispersion in its introduced ranges.     

A physiologically based approach for degree-day calculation in pest phenology models: the case of the European Corn Borer (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Ostrinia nubilalis</Emphasis> Hbn.) in Northern Italy

Phenological models based on degree-day accumulation have been developed to support the integrated pest management of many insects. Most of these models are based on linear relationships between temperature and development, and on daily time step simulations using daily minimum and maximum temperatures. This approach represents an approximation that does not take into account the insect physiological response to temperature, and daily temperature fluctuations. The objective of this work has been to develop a phenological model for the European corn borer (ECB) based on the insect physiological response to temperature and running at an hourly time step. Two modeling solutions based on the same generic compartmental system have been compared: the first based on a physiologically based relationship between temperature and development, and using hourly derived temperatures as input (HNL modeling solution); and the second based on a linear relationship between temperature and degree-day accumulation and using daily temperature (DL modeling solution). The two approaches have been compared using ECB moth capture data from the Piemonte region in Northern Italy. The HNL modeling solution showed the best results for all the accuracy indicators. The DL modeling solution showed a tendency to anticipate ECB phenological development too early. This tendency is attributable to the linear relationship between temperature and development, which does not take into account (1) the decline of this relationship at high temperatures, and (2) the daily fluctuation of temperature. As a consequence, degree-days accumulation is accelerated in the DL modeling solution and the phenological development anticipated.     

Physiological time model of Scirpophaga incertulas (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in rice in Guandong Province, People's Republic of China

Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is autochthonous and monophagous on rice, Oryza spp., which favors the development of a physiological time model using degree-days (degrees C) to establish a well defined window during which adults will be present in fields. Model development of S. incertulas adult flight phenology used climatic data and historical field observations of S. incertulas from 1962 through 1988. Analysis of variance was used to evaluate 5,203 prospective models with starting dates ranging from 1 January (day 1) to 30 April (day 121) and base temperatures ranging from -3 through 18.5 degrees C. From six candidate models, which shared the lowest standard deviation of prediction error, a model with a base temperature of 10 degrees C starting on 19 January was selected for validation. Validation with linear regression evaluated the differences between predicted and observed events and showed the model consistently predicted phenological events of 10 to 90% cumulative flight activity within a 3.5-d prediction interval regarded as acceptable for pest management decision making. The degree-day phenology model developed here is expected to find field application in Guandong Province. Expansion to other areas of rice production will require field validation. We expect the degree-day characterization of the activity period will remain essentially intact, but the start day may vary based on climate and geographic location. The development and validation of the phenology model of the S. incertulas by using procedures originally developed for pecan nut casebearer, Acrobasis nuxvorella Neunzig, shows the fungibility of this approach to developing prediction models for other insects.     

Model of Grapholita molesta spring emergence in pear orchards based on statistical information criteria

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta, is becoming a large threat to Korean pear production. Timely management of the egg and early larval stages from the spring emergence is critical to reduce the G. molesta population during the pear growing season. A model was developed to precisely predict the spring occurrence of G. molesta adults as a function of accumulated degree-days. The model was validated with male moth caught in sex pheromone-baited traps placed in pear orchards at two major pear production regions (Icheon and Naju) of Korea in 2010. We applied nine distribution models to describe the cumulative proportions of G. molesta males caught relative to accumulated degree-days. The observed phenology of the G. molesta spring population was well described by the nine models. The predicted dates for the cumulative 50% male moth catches were within a 5 day period. Based on statistical information criteria (Akaike's and Bayes–Schwartz information criteria), we recommend the sigmoid function referred by Brown and Mayer, because of its ease of use and meaningfulness; the parameter “b” denotes the degree-day accumulation at 50% moth emergence. The G. molesta spring emergence model could be applied to determine optimal chemical treatment timing for controlling G. molesta in fruit tree orchards and further help to develop a full-cycle phenology model of G. molesta.     

Developmental Models for Estimating Ecological Responses to Environmental Variability: Structural,Parametric, and Experimental Issues

Developmental models that account for the metabolic effect of temperature variability on poikilotherms, such as degree-day models, have been widely used to study organism emergence, range and development, particularly in agricultural and vector-borne disease contexts. Though simple and easy to use, structural and parametric issues can influence the outputs of such models, often substantially. Because the underlying assumptions and limitations of these models have rarely been considered, this paper reviews the structural, parametric, and experimental issues that arise when using degree-day models, including the implications of particular structural or parametric choices, as well as assumptions that underlie commonly used models. Linear and non-linear developmental functions are compared, as are common methods used to incorporate temperature thresholds and calculate daily degree-days. Substantial differences in predicted emergence time arose when using linear versus non-linear developmental functions to model the emergence time in a model organism. The optimal method for calculating degree-days depends upon where key temperature threshold parameters fall relative to the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the shape of the daily temperature curve. No method is shown to be universally superior, though one commonly used method, the daily average method, consistently provides accurate results. The sensitivity of model projections to these methodological issues highlights the need to make structural and parametric selections based on a careful consideration of the specific biological response of the organism under study, and the specific temperature conditions of the geographic regions of interest. When degree-day model limitations are considered and model assumptions met, the models can be a powerful tool for studying temperature-dependent development.     

Effect of water temperature on the mass emergence of the mayfly, Ephoron shigae, in a Japanese river (Ephemeroptera: Polymitarcyidae)

1. Winged stages of Ephoron shigae were collected every day during their emergence period during a 6-year period from 1989 to 1994, by net sweeps or a light trap along the Asahi-gawa River in western Japan. Emergence occurred mainly in September. 2. Coefficients of determination (r²) were calculated for the regression of the mean date of emergence against cumulative degree-days during various periods from late March to early September. 3. In both sexes the highest values of r² were obtained for regression with degree-days from late June to late August. This indicates that thermal conditions during the late instars affected the emergence timing most strongly. The timing of emergence can be well predicted from the cumulative degree-days during summer.     

枣实蝇蛹发育起点温度和有效积温

室内设定21,24,27,30和33℃共5个温度梯度,分别测定不同恒温条件下枣实蝇越冬蛹的发育历期,利用最小二乘法计算出蛹的发育起点温度为13.63℃,有效积温为807.55日.度。根据吐鲁番20年(1988～2007)月均地表温度数据,使用小样本方法估算出月均地表温度的置信区间,利用有效积温法则,推算得出2008年枣实蝇越冬代成虫初次出现日期范围为5月13日至22日,与2008年野外实测越冬成虫初次出现日期5月15日接近,测报结果较准确。     

Effect of Bacillus thuringiensis cry3Bb1 protein on the feeding behavior and longevity of adult western corn rootworms (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

The first transgenic corn hybrids expressing the Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry3Bb1 protein to control corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.) larvae were registered for commercial use in 2003. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of Cry3Bb1 protein in combination with a cucurbitacin bait on adult feeding and longevity of both organophosphate-resistant and -susceptible western corn rootworms, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). In choice and no-choice tests, possible repellency to the Bt protein was quantified by comparing beetle consumption of cellulose disks treated with three concentrations of Bt in combination with a feeding stimulant (Invite EC) to disks treated with stimulant alone. A lethal-time assay also was conducted to examine survival of beetles exposed to Bt protein in their diet. Results from these assays indicate that adult rootworms are not significantly deterred by the presence of Cry3Bb1 on the treated discs and that ingestion of toxin does not adversely affect adult longevity.     

Field measures of western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) mortality caused by Cry34/35Ab1 proteins expressed in maize event 59122 and implications for trait durability

Maize, Zea mays L., has been transformed to express the Cry34Ab1 and Cry35Ab1 proteins from Bacillus thuringiensis strain PS149B1. These two proteins act together as a binary insecticidal protein that is effective against corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) species. The design of the resistance management plan to preserve the long-term durability of this trait largely depends on the level of rootworm mortality induced by Cry34/35Ab1 corn rootworm-protected maize (frequently referred to as "dose" in this context). Here, we report on studies that showed Cry34/35Ab1-expressing maize event 59122 caused 99.1 to 99.98% mortality of western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte, larvae, after adjusting adult emergence numbers for density-dependent mortality. In two of three studies, there was a short delay in time to 50% adult emergence from 59122 maize plots compared with control plots, although emergence was completed at approximately the same time from both types of maize. These data support an expectation that alleles conferring resistance to the Cry34/35Ab1 proteins in western corn rootworm will be functionally nearly completely to completely recessive on 59122 maize and that there is unlikely to be assortative mating of Cry34/35Ab1-resistant and susceptible rootworms. When incorporated into simulation models of rootworm adaptation to transgenic maize, these findings suggest that a 20% refuge is likely to be highly effective at prolonging the durability of 59122 maize.     

Climate-Driven Phenological Change: Developing Robust Spatiotemporal Modeling and Projection Capability

Our possibility to appropriately detect, interpret and respond to climate-driven phenological changes depends on our ability to model and predict the changes. This ability may be hampered by non-linearity in climate-phenological relations, and by spatiotemporal variability and scale mismatches of climate and phenological data. A modeling methodology capable of handling such complexities can be a powerful tool for phenological change projection. Here we develop such a methodology using citizen scientists’ observations of first flight dates for orange tip butterflies (Anthocharis cardamines) in three areas extending along a steep climate gradient. The developed methodology links point data of first flight observations to calculated cumulative degree-days until first flight based on gridded temperature data. Using this methodology we identify and quantify a first flight model that is consistent across different regions, data support scales and assumptions of subgrid variability and observation bias. Model application to observed warming over the past 60 years demonstrates the model usefulness for assessment of climate-driven first flight change. The cross-regional consistency of the model implies predictive capability for future changes, and calls for further application and testing of analogous modeling approaches to other species, phenological variables and parts of the world.     

Temperature data for phenological models

In an arid environment, the effect of evaporation on energy balance can affect air temperature recordings and greatly impact on degree-day calculations. This is an important consideration when choosing a site or climate data for phenological models. To our knowledge, there is no literature showing the effect of the underlying surface and its fetch around a weather station on degree-day accumulations. In this paper, we present data to show that this is a serious consideration, and it can lead to dubious models. Microscale measurements of temperature and energy balance are presented to explain why the differences occur. For example, the effect of fetch of irrigated grass and wetting of bare soil around a weather station on diurnal temperature are reported. A 43-day experiment showed that temperature measured on the upwind edge of an irrigated grass area averaged 4% higher than temperatures recorded 200 m inside the grass field. When the single-triangle method was used with a 10°C threshold and starting on May 19, the station on the upwind edge recorded 900 degree-days on June 28, whereas the interior station recorded 900 degree-days on July 1. Clearly, a difference in fetch can lead to big errors for large degree-day accumulations. Immediately after wetting, the temperature over a wet soil surface was similar to that measured over grass. However, the temperature over the soil increased more than that over the grass as the soil surface dried. Therefore, the observed difference between temperatures measured over bare soil and those over grass increases with longer periods between wettings. In most arid locations, measuring temperature over irrigated grass gives a lower mean annual temperature, resulting in lower annual cumulative degree-day values. This was verified by comparing measurements over grass with those over bare soil at several weather stations in a range of climates. To eliminate the effect of rainfall frequency, using temperature data collected only over irrigated grass, is recommended for long-term assessment of climate change effects on degree-day accumulation. In high evaporative conditions, a fetch of at least 100 m of grass is recommended. Our results clearly indicate that weather stations sited over bare soil have consistently higher degree-day accumulations. Therefore, especially in arid environments, phenology models based on temperature collected over bare soil are not transferable to those based on temperature recorded over irrigated grass. At a minimum, all degree-day-based phenology models reported in the literature should clearly describe the weather station site. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 10 July 2001 / Accepted: 10 July 2001     

Mortality impact of Bt transgenic maize roots expressing eCry3.1Ab, mCry3A, and eCry3.1Ab plus mCry3A on western corn rootworm larvae in the field

Mortality of the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte, larvae due to feeding on maize, Zea mays L., expressing Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bt) was evaluated in five Missouri sites in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Specifically, eCry3.1Ab (5307), mCry3A (MIR604), and eCry3.1Ab plus mCry3A proteins relative to survivorship on maize with the same genetic background without these genes (isoline maize) was evaluated. An average of 890.8 +/- 152.3 beetles emerged from isoline plots, whereas average beetle emergence from 5307, MIR604, and 5307 x MIR604 was 1.9 +/- 0.6, 19.3 +/- 6.3, and 0.8 +/- 0.3, respectively, when averaged across 22 replications in five environments. Overall, 66, 50, 61, and 51% of beetles recovered from 5307, MIR604, 5307 x MIR604, and isoline maize, respectively, were female, and there was no significant difference between the number of male and female beetles that emerged from any of these treatments. Mortality due to 5307, MIR604, and 5307 x MIR604 was 99.79, 97.83, and 99.91%, respectively. There was an 8.0-d delay in time to 50% beetle emergence from 5307 compared with isoline maize, which was significantly later than to the other three maize lines. The average delay to 50% emergence from MIR604 and 5307 x MIR604 averaged 4.1 and 4.6 d, respectively later than 50% emergence from isoline maize. Female beetles had a significant delay in time to 50% emergence compared with male beetles from all treatments with the exception of 5307 x MIR604. Data are discussed in terms of insect resistance management in relation to other control measures for western corn rootworm.     

Examining Cuphea as a potential host for western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae): larval development

In previous crop rotation research, adult emergence traps placed in plots planted to Cuphea PSR-23 (a selected cross of Cuphea viscosissma Jacq. and Cuphea lanceolata Ait.) caught high numbers of adult western corn rootworms, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), suggesting that larvae may have completed development on this broadleaf plant. Because of this observation, a series of greenhouse and field experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that Cuphea could serve as a host for larval development. Greenhouse-grown plants infested with neonates of a colonized nondiapausing strain of the beetle showed no survival of larvae on Cuphea, although larvae did survive on the positive control (corn, Zea mays L.) and negative control [sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] plants. Soil samples collected 20 June, 7 July, and 29 July 2005 from field plots planted to Cuphea did not contain rootworm larvae compared with means of 1.28, 0.22, and 0.00 rootworms kg(-1) soil, respectively, for samples collected from plots planted to corn. Emergence traps captured a peak of eight beetles trap(-1) day(-1) from corn plots on 8 July compared with a peak of 0.5 beetle trap(-1) day(-1) on 4 August from Cuphea plots. Even though a few adult beetles were again captured in the emergence traps placed in the Cuphea plots, it is not thought to be the result of successful larval development on Cuphea roots. All the direct evidence reported here supports the conventional belief that rootworm larvae do not survive on broadleaf plants, including Cuphea.     

Population dynamics of a Western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) variant in east central Illinois commercial maize and soybean fields

Three on-farm sites in Iroquois County, IL, each containing an adjacent 16.2-ha commercial production maize, Zea mays L., and soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr., field, were monitored for western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), adults from June through September 1999-2001. Mean captures of D. v. virgifera adults as measured with Pherocon AM yellow sticky traps were significantly greater in maize than in soybean. Overall mean numbers of D. v. virgifera adults captured with vial traps were significantly greater in soybean than in maize. Emergence cage data revealed that after 50% emergence of D. v. virgifera adults occurred, peak captures of D. v. virgifera adults occurred in maize as measured with vial and Pherocon AM traps. After maize reached the R2 (blister stage, 10-14 d after silking) stage of development and 90% emergence of D. v. virgifera adults had occurred, peak captures of D. v. virgifera adults were observed in soybean by using vial and Pherocon AM traps. Also, after maize reached the R2 stage of development, numbers of females significantly increased in soybean and decreased in maize. Captures of female D. v. virgifera adults frequently exceeded published economic thresholds in soybean, regardless of trap type used. Estimated survival of variant D. v. virgifera (egg to adult) in these commercial rotated maize fields was 10.7 and 9.4% from 1999 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2001, respectively. This compares with nonvariant D. v. virgifera survival estimates in continuous maize production systems in Iowa of 6.7 and 11% from 1983 to 1984 and from 1984 to 1985, respectively.     

Phenology of Lygus lineolaris (Hemiptera: Miridae) in Minnesota June-bearing strawberries: comparison of sampling methods and habitats

Field studies were conducted in southeastern Minnesota from 2000 to 2002 to determine the phenology of Lygus lineolaris in various habitats and to compare yellow and white sticky traps as a sampling method for adult L. lineolaris. Strawberry fields were sampled for L. lineolaris adults using yellow sticky traps, and nymphs were sampled using the standard white pan beat method. Adult L. lineolaris abundance in alfalfa, an adjacent fence-row, and a wooded habitat were also compared. The nonlinear relationship between cumulative trap catch and cumulative degree-days was modeled with a two-parameter cumulative Weibull function to predict early-season adult capture using yellow sticky traps. Adult L. lineolaris were detected in bearing-year strawberries at the onset of vegetative growth in all years. Yellow sticky traps caught significantly higher densities of adult L. lineolaris than white sticky traps. The Weibull model predicted 50% capture at 10 DD (>12.4 degrees C), which corresponds to the vegetative strawberry growth stage. L. lineolaris nymphs were not detected until the blossom stage. Alfalfa harbored significantly higher densities of L. lineolaris than other habitats during early-season sampling (i.e., March-June). Late-season sampling (July-September) revealed significantly higher densities in bearing-year strawberries. These results suggest that monitoring at the onset of vegetative growth, using yellow sticky traps, will be an efficient method for detecting early L. lineolaris adult activity.     

Estimation of developmental parameters for adult emergence of Gonatocerus morgani,a novel egg parasitoid of the glassy-winged sharpshooter,and development of a degree-day model

The effects of temperature on the development (egg–adult emergence) of Gonatocerus morgani Triapitsyn, a newly-described parasitoid of Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar), were determined at 14.8, 18.7, 23.5, 26.9, 28.7, 30.4, 32.8, and 33.8 °C in the laboratory. Survival rate (percent adult emergence from parasitized host eggs) varied significantly among the experimental temperatures, with the highest (59%) and lowest (0%) occurring at 30.4 and 33.8 °C, respectively. The survival rates (%) were fitted with a polynomial model to describe a temperature-dependent pattern. Developmental rates (1/d) across seven temperatures were fitted with the nonlinear Briere model, which estimated the lower threshold to be 8.06 °C, the optimal temperature to be 29.22 °C, and the upper threshold to be 33.49 °C. A linear model fitted to developmental rates at 14.8–28.7 °C indicated that 189.75 degree-days above the lower threshold of 9.71 °C were required to complete development. A simulation model of G. morgani adult emergence was constructed to predict daily counts over the entire range of constant temperatures by incorporating the survival rate model, the Briere model, and the Weibull model. In outdoor validation, a degree-day model for predicting adult emergence showed ?2 d differences between prediction and observation. Based on the observed temperature requirement, the insect could complete thirteen to sixteen generations per year in southern California, depending on weather and location.     

A forecasting model for the adult emergence of overwintered Monochamus alternatus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) larvae based on degree-days in Korea

Emergence data from 1999 to 2011 were analyzed to develop a forecasting model of the adult emergence of overwintered Monochamus alternatus Hope (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) larvae. The cumulative emergence curves of M. alternatus adults showed high variation year to year and were fitted by the Weibull function to obtain an all-combined preliminary model that was then used to separate fractional models. The emergence curves were grouped into three fractional modes—advance, regular, and delay—based on the number of discrepant days between actual and predicted date by the preliminary model at 50 % emergence date (predicted ? observed), resulting in the mean number of discrepant days of 8.7, ?0.2, and ?8.0, respectively. Three assumptions were made to support the grouping: delay mode is selected when the third instars prevails in overwintering stages; advance mode is selected when the fourth instars prevail, since fourth instars immediately can go into pupal stage; regular mode is located between advance and delay mode. These three modes produced a 340, 420, and 500 degree-days (DDs) at 50 % emergence date, respectively, when each was fitted by the Weibull function, with DDs based on 11.9 °C from 1 January. The emergence models developed in this study considerably described the actual population phenology of M. alternatus, with the selection of advance, regular, and delay modes. Consequently, the models should be useful in establishing management strategies against M. alternatus in Korean forests.