Potential Changes in the Distributions of Western North America Tree and Shrub Taxa under Future Climate Scenarios

Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases are driving significant changes in global climate. To project potential vegetation response to future climate change, this study uses response surfaces to describe the relationship between bioclimatic variables and the distribution of tree and shrub taxa in western North America. The response surfaces illustrate the probability of the occurrence of a taxon at particular points in climate space. Climate space was defined using three bioclimatic variables: mean temperature of the coldest month, growing degree days, and a moisture index. Species distributions were simulated under present climate using observed data (1951–80, 30-year mean) and under future climate (2090–99, 10-year mean) using scenarios generated by three general circulation models—HADCM2, CGCM1, and CSIRO. The scenarios assume a 1% per year compound increase in greenhouse gases and changes in sulfate (SO₄) aerosols based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a scenario. The results indicate that under future climate conditions, potential range changes could be large for many tree and shrub taxa. Shifts in the potential ranges of species are simulated to occur not only northward but in all directions, including southward of the existing ranges of certain species. The simulated potential distributions of some species become increasingly fragmented under the future climate scenarios, while the simulated potential distributions of other species expand. The magnitudes of the simulated range changes imply significant impacts to ecosystems and shifts in patterns of species diversity in western North America. Received 12 May 2000; accepted 20 December 2000.     

Potential effects of future climate change on global reptile distributions and diversity

Aim

Until recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale.

Location

Global, excluding Antarctica.

Time period

1995, 2050 and 2080.

Major taxa studied

Reptiles.

Methods

We modelled the distribution of 6296 reptile species and assessed potential global and realm-specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species-specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3768 range-restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non-modelled species.

Results

Reptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographical realms, with the greatest decreases in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominant global poleward shift. Non-modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species.

Main conclusions

With ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect, in addition to considerable impacts on species range extent, overlap and position, was visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a re-assessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change.     

Beyond climate control on species range: The importance of soil data to predict distribution of Amazonian plant species

Aim

To evaluate the relative importance of climatic versus soil data when predicting species distributions for Amazonian plants and to gain understanding of potential range shifts under climate change.

Location

Amazon rain forest.

Methods

We produced species distribution models (SDM) at 5‐km spatial resolution for 42 plant species (trees, palms, lianas, monocot herbs and ferns) using species occurrence data from herbarium records and plot‐based inventories. We modelled species distribution with Bayesian logistic regression using either climate data only, soil data only or climate and soil data together to estimate their relative predictive powers. For areas defined as unsuitable to species occurrence, we mapped the difference between the suitability predictions obtained with climate‐only versus soil‐only models to identify regions where climate and soil might restrict species ranges independently or jointly.

Results

For 40 out of the 42 species, the best models included both climate and soil predictors. The models including only soil predictors performed better than the models including only climate predictors, but we still detected a drought‐sensitive response for most of the species. Edaphic conditions were predicted to restrict species occurrence in the centre, the north‐west and in the north‐east of Amazonia, while the climatic conditions were identified as the restricting factor in the eastern Amazonia, at the border of Roraima and Venezuela and in the Andean foothills.

Main conclusions

Our results revealed that soil data are a more important predictor than climate of plant species range in Amazonia. The strong control of species ranges by edaphic features might reduce species’ abilities to track suitable climate conditions under a drought‐increase scenario. Future challenges are to improve the quality of soil data and couple them with process‐based models to better predict species range dynamics under climate change.     

Immigrants and refugees: the importance of dispersal in mediating biotic attrition under climate change

Montane tropical rainforests are critically important areas for global bird diversity, but are projected to be highly vulnerable to contemporary climate change. Upslope shifts of lowland species may partially offset declines in upland species but also result in a process of lowland biotic attrition. This latter process is contingent on the absence of species adapted to novel warm climates, and isolation from pools of potential colonizers. In the Australian Wet Tropics, species distribution modelling has forecast critical declines in suitable environmental area for upland endemic birds, raising the question of the future role of both natural and assisted dispersal in species survival, but information is lacking for important neighbouring rainforest regions. Here we use expanded geographic coverage of data to model the realized distributions of 120 bird species found in north‐eastern Australian rainforest, including species from potential source locations in the north and recipient locations in the south. We reaffirm previous conclusions as to the high vulnerability of this fauna to global warming, and extend the list of species whose suitable environmental area is projected to decrease. However, we find that expansion of suitable area for some species currently restricted to northern rainforests has the potential to offset biotic attrition in lowland forest of the Australian Wet Tropics. By examining contrasting dispersal scenarios, we show that responses to climate change in this region may critically depend on dispersal limitation, as climate change shifts the suitable environmental envelopes of many species south into currently unsuitable habitats. For lowland and northern species, future change in vegetation connectivity across contemporary habitat barriers is likely to be an important mediator of climate change impacts. In contrast, upland species are projected to become increasingly isolated and restricted. Their survival is likely to be more dependent on the viability of assisted migration, and the emergence and persistence of suitable environments at recipient locations.     

Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve‐selection methods

Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve‐selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long‐term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve‐selection methods to secure species in a climate‐change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using European distributions of 1200 plant species and considering two extreme scenarios of response to climate change: no dispersal and universal dispersal. With our data, 6–11% of species modelled would be potentially lost from selected reserves in a 50‐year period. Measured uncertainties varied in 6% being 1–3% attributed to dispersal assumptions and 2–5% to the choice of reserve‐selection method. Suitability approaches to reserve selection performed best, while reserve clustering performed poorly. We also found that 5% of species modelled would lose their entire climatic envelope in the studied area; 2% of the species modelled would have nonoverlapping distributions; 93% of the species modelled would maintain varying levels of overlapping distributions. We conclude there are opportunities to minimize species' extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species; especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions.     

On the brink of extinction? How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution

Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large‐scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature‐related physiological traits (i.e., temperature‐dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.     

Climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of koala‐browse species from the Last Interglacial to the near future

The koala's Phascolarctos cinereus distribution is currently restricted to eastern and south‐eastern Australia. However, fossil records dating from 70 ± 4 ka (ka = 10³ yr) from south‐western Australia and the Nullarbor Plain are evidence of subpopulation extinctions in the southwest at least after the Last Interglacial (~128–116 ka). We hypothesize that koala sub‐population extinctions resulted from the eastward retraction of the koala's main browse species in response to unsuitable climatic conditions. We further posit a general reduction in the distribution of main koala‐browse trees in the near future in response climate change. We modelled 60 koala‐browse species and constructed a set of correlative species distribution models for five time periods: Last Interglacial (~128–116 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (~23–19 ka), Mid‐Holocene (~7–5 ka), present (interpolations of observed data, representative of 1960–1990), and 2070. We based our projections on five hindcasts and one forecast of climatic variables extracted from WorldClim based on two general circulation models (considering the most pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse‐gas emissions) and topsoil clay fraction. We used 17 dates of koala fossil specimens identified as reliable from 70 (± 4) to 535 (± 49) ka, with the last appearance of koalas at 70 ka in the southwest. The main simulated koala‐browse species were at their greatest modelled extent of suitability during the Last Glacial Maximum, with the greatest loss of koala habitat occurring between the Mid‐Holocene and the present. We predict a similar habitat loss between the present and 2070. The spatial patterns of habitat change support our hypothesis that koala extinctions in the southwest, Nullarbor Plain and central South Australia resulted from the eastward retraction of the dominant koala‐browse species in response to long‐term climate changes. Future climate patterns will likely increase the extinction risk of koalas in their remaining eastern ranges.     

From climate change predictions to actions – conserving vulnerable animal groups in hotspots at a regional scale

Current climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Species unable to adapt or move will face local or global extinction and this is more likely to happen to species with narrow climatic and habitat requirements and limited dispersal abilities, such as amphibians and reptiles. Biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest in global biodiversity hotspots where climate change is fast, such as the Iberian Peninsula. Here we assess the impact of climate change on 37 endemic and nearly endemic herptiles of the Iberian Peninsula by predicting species distributions for three different times into the future (2020, 2050 and 2080) using an ensemble of bioclimatic models and different combinations of species dispersal ability, emission levels and global circulation models. Our results show that species with Atlantic affinities that occur mainly in the North‐western Iberian Peninsula have severely reduced future distributions. Up to 13 species may lose their entire potential distribution by 2080. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the most critical period for the majority of these species will be the next decade. While there is considerable variability between the scenarios, we believe that our results provide a robust relative evaluation of climate change impacts among different species. Future evaluation of the vulnerability of individual species to climate change should account for their adaptive capacity to climate change, including factors such as physiological climate tolerance, geographical range size, local abundance, life cycle, behavioural and phenological adaptability, evolutionary potential and dispersal ability.     

The legacy of human use in Amazonian palm communities along environmental and accessibility gradients

Aim

Palms are iconic and dominant elements of neotropical forests. In the Amazon region, palms have been used and managed by humans for food, material, medicine and other purposes for millennia. It is, however, debated to what extent the structure of modern palm communities reflects long-term human modification. Here, we investigate the complex interplay of ecological and societal factors that influence the distributions of both human-used and non-used palms in western Amazonia.

Location

Amazonia.

Time period

Present.

Major taxa studied

Palms (Arecaceae).

Methods

We used Bayesian hierarchical joint species distribution models to predict the distributions and environmental niche dimensions of 78 western Amazonian species, and to explore their relationships with their diversity of human uses and with specific uses (food, construction and medicine). The models were parameterized with a comprehensive set of field- and satellite-derived environmental predictors.

Results

Our results suggest that a combination of ecological and anthropogenic factors drive the present-day distributions of Amazonian palms. The modelled ecological niches of the species revealed use-related species-sorting along soil, climatic, accessibility and drainage gradients. We found peaks in the proportions of useful palms and their diversity of uses in fertile soils, close to rivers, and on floodplains. These are habitats favourable for human settlement, although they harbour naturally restricted palm species pools. We also found a negative correlation between predicted palm species richness and number of human uses across western Amazonia.

Main conclusions

Soil characteristics, accessibility, and species pool size all contribute to defining palm–human relationships. At the basin scale, the signature of human use on palm communities was predicted to be stronger in the species-poor south-west than in central-western Amazonia. Overall, we conclude that environmental conditions have influenced modern Amazonian palm distributions both directly and indirectly, by regulating human settlement patterns and natural resource use over extended time periods.     

There's no place like home: seedling mortality contributes to the habitat specialisation of tree species across Amazonia

Understanding the mechanisms generating species distributions remains a challenge, especially in hyperdiverse tropical forests. We evaluated the role of rainfall variation, soil gradients and herbivory on seedling mortality, and how variation in seedling performance along these gradients contributes to habitat specialisation. In a 4‐year experiment, replicated at the two extremes of the Amazon basin, we reciprocally transplanted 4638 tree seedlings of 41 habitat‐specialist species from seven phylogenetic lineages among the three most important forest habitats of lowland Amazonia. Rainfall variation, flooding and soil gradients strongly influenced seedling mortality, whereas herbivory had negligible impact. Seedling mortality varied strongly among habitats, consistent with predictions for habitat specialists in most lineages. This suggests that seedling performance is a primary determinant of the habitat associations of adult trees across Amazonia. It further suggests that tree diversity, currently mostly harboured in terra firme forests, may be strongly impacted by the predicted climate changes in Amazonia.     

What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan‐Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots—regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS—were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan‐Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high‐risk areas for AIS in response to global warming.     

Simulating climate change impacts on forests and associated vascular epiphytes in a subtropical island of East Asia

Aim This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on forests and vascular epiphytes, using species distribution models (SDMs). Location Island of Taiwan, subtropical East Asia. Methods A hierarchical modelling approach incorporating forest migration velocity and forest type–epiphyte interactions with classical SDMs was used to model the responses of eight forest types and 237 vascular epiphytes for the year 2100 under two climate change scenarios. Forest distributions were modelled and modified by dominant tree species’ dispersal limitations and hypothesized persistence under unfavourable climate conditions (20 years for broad‐leaved trees and 50 years for conifers). The modelled forest projections together with 16 environmental variables were used as predictors in models of epiphyte distributions. A null method was applied to validate the significance of epiphyte SDMs, and potential vulnerable species were identified by calculating range turnover rates. Results For the year 2100, the model predicted a reduction in the range of most forest types, especially for Picea and cypress forests, which shifted to altitudes c. 400 and 300 m higher, respectively. The models indicated that epiphyte distributions are highly correlated with forest types, and the majority (77–78%) of epiphyte species were also projected to lose 45–58% of their current range, shifting on average to altitudes c. 400 m higher than currently. Range turnover rates suggested that insensitive epiphytes were generally lowland or widespread species, whereas sensitive species were more geographically restricted, showing a higher correlation with temperature‐related factors in their distributions. Main conclusions The hierarchical modelling approach successfully produced interpretable results, suggesting the importance of considering biotic interactions and the inclusion of terrain‐related factors when developing SDMs for dependant species at a local scale. Long‐term monitoring of potentially vulnerable sites is advised, especially of those sites that fall outside current conservation reserves where additional human disturbance is likely to exacerbate the effect of climate change.     

Warmer and richer? Predicting the impact of climate warming on species richness in small temperate waterbodies

Climate change is expected to affect communities worldwide. Many studies focus on responses at the regional level and show an increase in species richness. However, less is known about the consequences of climate change at the local scale (in ecosystems). Small waterbodies, such as ponds, could play an important role for the assessment of the impact of future changes in climate at the local level. We evaluated here the potential changes due to climate warming in the species richness for various groups (plants, snails, beetles, dragonflies, amphibians) across 113 lowland and high altitude ponds in Switzerland. We modelled the relationships between species richness and environmental variables (including temperature) and predicted species richness changes for the end of the century (2090–2100; using the A2 IPCC scenario). Temperature rise could significantly increase pond species richness. For the five taxonomic groups pooled, species richness would potentially increase from 41 to 75 (+83%) in lowland ponds. In presently species‐poor high altitude ponds, the potential increase would be particularly marked, with a proportional increase (+150%; from 14 to 35 species) almost double that in lowland areas. A strong increase in species richness also resulted from models including changes in additional variables, such as landuse or water quality. Future reductions in water quality (e.g. increase in nutrients) may limit the predicted increase in lowland species richness or, conversely, result in a greater increase in species richness in high altitude areas. Nutrient enrichment is shown to affect the taxonomic groups differentially, with plant species richness the most negatively influenced. Climate warming could therefore affect species richness of temperate ponds not only regionally, but also at the local, within ecosystems‐scale; species richness could increase markedly in temperate regions, and especially so at higher altitude.     

Tropical rain forest conservation and the twin challenges of diversity and rarity

Data from a global network of large, permanent plots in lowland tropical forests demonstrate (1) that the phenomenon of tropical tree rarity is real and (2) that almost all the species diversity in such forests is due to rare species. Theoretical and empirically based reasoning suggests that many of these rare species are not as geographically widespread as previously thought. These findings suggest that successful strategies for conserving global tree diversity in lowland tropical forests must pay much more attention to the biogeography of rarity, as well as to the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of rare species. Because the biogeography of many tropical tree species is poorly known, a high priority should be given to documenting the distribution and abundance of rare tropical tree species, particularly in Amazonia, the largest remaining tropical forested region in the world.     

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland

Aim Climate change has the potential to have significant impacts on the distribution of species and on the composition of habitats. This paper identifies the potential changes in the future distribution of species under the UKCIP98 climate change scenarios, in order that such changes can be taken into account in conservation management. Location The model was applied to Britain and Ireland. Methods A model based on an artificial neural network was used to predict the changing bioclimate envelopes of species in Britain and Ireland. Fifty‐four species representing 15 habitats were modelled. Results The modelled species could be placed into three categories: those losing suitable climate space, those gaining it, and those showing little or no change. When the species were associated with habitats it was found that Arctic–Alpine/montane heath communities were the most sensitive to climate change, followed by pine woodland and beech woodland in southern England. In lowland heath, wet heath, cereal field margins, coastal grazing marsh, drought‐prone acid grassland and calcareous grassland, the species either showed little change or an increase in suitable climate space. The other eight habitats showed a mixed response. Conclusions The species show a variety of responses to climate change and thus their current habitat associations may alter. The uncertain future of some species and habitats is highlighted. Conservation policy and practice will need to be revised in the face of climate change.     

The relative importance of deforestation,precipitation change,and temperature sensitivity in determining the future distributions and diversity of Amazonian plant species

Tropical forests are threatened by many human disturbances – two of the most important of which are deforestation and climate change. To mitigate the impacts of these disturbances, it is important to understand their potential effects on the distributions of species. In the tropics, such understanding has been hindered by poor knowledge of the current distributions and range limits of most species. Here, we use herbarium collection records to model the current and future distributions of ca. 3000 Amazonian plant species. We project these distributions into the future under a range of different scenarios related to the magnitude of climate change and extent of deforestation as well as the response of species to changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ . We find that the future of Amazonian diversity will be dependant primarily on the ability of species to tolerate or adapt to rising temperatures. If the thermal niches of tropical plant species are fixed and incapable of expanding under rapid warming, then the negative effects of climate change will overshadow the effects of deforestation, greatly reducing the area of suitable habitat available to most species and potentially leading to massive losses of biodiversity throughout the Amazon. If tropical species are generally capable of tolerating warmer temperatures, rates of habitat loss will be greatly reduced but many parts of Amazonia may still experience rapid losses of diversity, with the effects of enhanced seasonal water stress being similar in magnitude to the effects of deforestation.     

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range‐edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range‐edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range‐edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range‐core populations. We also highlight how large‐scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest‐cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range‐edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range‐edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.     

A framework for the identification of hotspots of climate change risk for mammals

As rates of global warming increase rapidly, identifying species at risk of decline due to climate impacts and the factors affecting this risk have become key challenges in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we present a framework for assessing three components of climate‐related risk for species: vulnerability, exposure and hazard. We used the relationship between the observed response of species to climate change and a set of intrinsic traits (e.g. weaning age) and extrinsic factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality within a species geographic range) to predict, respectively, the vulnerability and exposure of all data‐sufficient terrestrial non‐volant mammals (3,953 species). Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range), we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south‐western Kenya, north‐eastern Tanzania, north‐eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua‐New Guinea. Our framework identifies priority areas for monitoring climate change effects on species and directing climate mitigation actions for biodiversity.     

Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

Abstract

• 1 One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large‐scale disturbances to pine forests in the south‐eastern and western United States, respectively.
• 2 Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them.
• 3 To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables.
• 4 Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests.
• 5 Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study.
• 6 Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation.
• 7 Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long‐term distributional shifts of their host forests.

     

Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia

Climate change has already altered global patterns of biodiversity by modifying the geographic distributions of species. Forecasts based on bioclimatic envelop modeling of distributions of species suggests greater impacts can be expected in the future, but such projections are contingent on assumptions regarding future climate and migration rates of species. Here, we present a first assessment of the potential impact of climate change on a global biodiversity hotspot in southwestern Western Australia. Across three representative scenarios of future climate change, we simulated migration of 100 Banksia (Proteaceae) species at a rate of 5 km decade^?1 and compared projected impacts with those under the commonly applied, but acknowledged as inadequate, assumptions of ‘full‐’ and ‘no‐migration.’ Across all climate × migration scenarios, 66% of species were projected to decline, whereas only 6% were projected to expand or remain stable. Between 5% and 25% of species were projected to suffer range losses of 100% by 2080, depending mainly on climate scenario. Species losses were driven primarily by changes in current precipitation regimes, with the greatest losses of species projected to occur in a transition zone between wet coastal areas and interior arid regions and which is projected to become more arid in the future. Because the ranges of most species tended to collapse in all climate scenarios, we found that climate change impacts to flora of southwestern Western Australia may be large, even under optimistic assumptions regarding migration abilities. Taken together, our results suggest that the future of biodiversity in southwestern Western Australia may lie largely in the degree to which this hotspot experiences increased drought and in the ability of species to tolerate such decreases in precipitation. More broadly, our study is among a growing number of theoretical studies suggesting the impacts of future climate change on global biodiversity may be considerable.