Predicting protein three-dimensional structure

The current state of the art in modeling protein structure has been assessed, based on the results of the CASP (Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction) experiments. In comparative modeling, improvements have been made in sequence alignment, sidechain orientation and loop building. Refinement of the models remains a serious challenge. Improved sequence profile methods have had a large impact in fold recognition. Although there has been some progress in alignment quality, this factor still limits model usefulness. In ab initio structure prediction, there has been notable progress in building approximately correct structures of 40-60 residue-long protein fragments. There is still a long way to go before the general ab initio prediction problem is solved. Overall, the field is maturing into a practical technology, able to deliver useful models for a large number of sequences.     

Protein structure prediction in 2002

Central issues concerning protein structure prediction have been highlighted by the recently published summary of the fourth community-wide protein structure prediction experiment (CASP4). Although sequence/structure alignment remains the bottleneck in comparative modeling, there has been substantial progress in fully automated remote homolog detection and in de novo structure prediction. Significant further progress will probably require improvements in high-resolution modeling.     

Estimation of model accuracy in CASP13

Methods to reliably estimate the accuracy of 3D models of proteins are both a fundamental part of most protein folding pipelines and important for reliable identification of the best models when multiple pipelines are used. Here, we describe the progress made from CASP12 to CASP13 in the field of estimation of model accuracy (EMA) as seen from the progress of the most successful methods in CASP13. We show small but clear progress, that is, several methods perform better than the best methods from CASP12 when tested on CASP13 EMA targets. Some progress is driven by applying deep learning and residue-residue contacts to model accuracy prediction. We show that the best EMA methods select better models than the best servers in CASP13, but that there exists a great potential to improve this further. Also, according to the evaluation criteria based on local similarities, such as lDDT and CAD, it is now clear that single model accuracy methods perform relatively better than consensus-based methods.     

A further leap of improvement in tertiary structure prediction in CASP13 prompts new routes for future assessments

We present our assessment of tertiary structure predictions for hard targets in Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction round 13 (CASP13). The analysis includes (a) assignment and discussion of best models through scores-aided visual inspection of models for each evaluation unit (EU); (b) ranking of predictors resulting from this evaluation and from global scores; and (c) evaluation of progress, state of the art, and current limitations of protein structure prediction. We witness a sizable improvement in tertiary structure prediction building on the progress observed from CASP11 to CASP12, with (a) top models reaching backbone RMSD <3 å for several EUs of size <150 residues, contributed by many groups; (b) at least one model that roughly captures global topology for all EUs, probably unprecedented in this track of CASP; and (c) even quite good models for full, unsplit targets. Better structure predictions are brought about mainly by improved residue-residue contact predictions, and since this CASP also by distance predictions, achieved through state-of-the-art machine learning methods which also progressed to work with slightly shallower alignments compared to CASP12. As we reach a new realm of tertiary structure prediction quality, new directions are proposed and explored for future CASPs: (a) dropping splitting into EUs, (b) rethinking difficulty metrics probably in terms of contact and distance predictions, (c) assessing also side chains for models of high backbone accuracy, and (d) assessing residue-wise and possibly residue-residue quality estimates.     

Driven to near-experimental accuracy by refinement via molecular dynamics simulations

Protein model refinement has been an essential part of successful protein structure prediction. Molecular dynamics simulation-based refinement methods have shown consistent improvement of protein models. There had been progress in the extent of refinement for a few years since the idea of ensemble averaging of sampled conformations emerged. There was little progress in CASP12 because conformational sampling was not sufficiently diverse due to harmonic restraints. During CASP13, a new refinement method was tested that achieved significant improvements over CASP12. The new method intended to address previous bottlenecks in the refinement problem by introducing new features. Flat-bottom harmonic restraints replaced harmonic restraints, sampling was performed iteratively, and a new scoring function and selection criteria were used. The new protocol expanded conformational sampling at reduced computational costs. In addition to overall improvements, some models were refined significantly to near-experimental accuracy.     

Small angle X-ray scattering-assisted protein structure prediction in CASP13 and emergence of solution structure differences

Small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) measures comprehensive distance information on a protein's structure, which can constrain and guide computational structure prediction algorithms. Here, we evaluate structure predictions of 11 monomeric and oligomeric proteins for which SAXS data were collected and provided to predictors in the 13th round of the Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP13). The category for SAXS-assisted predictions made gains in certain areas for CASP13 compared to CASP12. Improvements included higher quality data with size exclusion chromatography-SAXS (SEC-SAXS) and better selection of targets and communication of results by CASP organizers. In several cases, we can track improvements in model accuracy with use of SAXS data. For hard multimeric targets where regular folding algorithms were unsuccessful, SAXS data helped predictors to build models better resembling the global shape of the target. For most models, however, no significant improvement in model accuracy at the domain level was registered from use of SAXS data, when rigorously comparing SAXS-assisted models to the best regular server predictions. To promote future progress in this category, we identify successes, challenges, and opportunities for improved strategies in prediction, assessment, and communication of SAXS data to predictors. An important observation is that, for many targets, SAXS data were inconsistent with crystal structures, suggesting that these proteins adopt different conformation(s) in solution. This CASP13 result, if representative of PDB structures and future CASP targets, may have substantive implications for the structure training databases used for machine learning, CASP, and use of prediction models for biology.     

Ab initio protein folding

Ab initio protein folding methods have been developing rapidly over the past few years and, at the last Critical assessment of methods of protein structure prediction (CASP) meeting, it was shown that important progress has been made in generating structure from sequence. Both methods based on statistical potentials and methods using physics-based potentials have shown improvements. Most current methods use statistics-based potentials and the development of these is ongoing. Additionally, the inclusion of multiple sequence data in the algorithms in order to aid in finding the native structure is a common theme. The use of physics-based potentials is less developed, which means that less progress has been made in understanding why a sequence forms a structure.     

MaxSub: an automated measure for the assessment of protein structure prediction quality

MOTIVATION: Evaluating the accuracy of predicted models is critical for assessing structure prediction methods. Because this problem is not trivial, a large number of different assessment measures have been proposed by various authors, and it has already become an active subfield of research (Moult et al. (1997,1999) and CAFASP (Fischer et al. 1999) prediction experiments have demonstrated that it has been difficult to choose one single, 'best' method to be used in the evaluation. Consequently, the CASP3 evaluation was carried out using an extensive set of especially developed numerical measures, coupled with human-expert intervention. As part of our efforts towards a higher level of automation in the structure prediction field, here we investigate the suitability of a fully automated, simple, objective, quantitative and reproducible method that can be used in the automatic assessment of models in the upcoming CAFASP2 experiment. Such a method should (a) produce one single number that measures the quality of a predicted model and (b) perform similarly to human-expert evaluations. RESULTS: MaxSub is a new and independently developed method that further builds and extends some of the evaluation methods introduced at CASP3. MaxSub aims at identifying the largest subset of C(alpha) atoms of a model that superimpose 'well' over the experimental structure, and produces a single normalized score that represents the quality of the model. Because there exists no evaluation method for assessment measures of predicted models, it is not easy to evaluate how good our new measure is. Even though an exact comparison of MaxSub and the CASP3 assessment is not straightforward, here we use a test-bed extracted from the CASP3 fold-recognition models. A rough qualitative comparison of the performance of MaxSub vis-a-vis the human-expert assessment carried out at CASP3 shows that there is a good agreement for the more accurate models and for the better predicting groups. As expected, some differences were observed among the medium to poor models and groups. Overall, the top six predicting groups ranked using the fully automated MaxSub are also the top six groups ranked at CASP3. We conclude that MaxSub is a suitable method for the automatic evaluation of models.     

Cover Image,Volume 87, Issue 12

CASP (critical assessment of structure prediction) assesses the state of the art in modeling protein structure from amino acid sequence. The most recent experiment (CASP13 held in 2018) saw dramatic progress in structure modeling without use of structural templates (historically “ab initio” modeling). Progress was driven by the successful application of deep learning techniques to predict inter-residue distances. In turn, these results drove dramatic improvements in three-dimensional structure accuracy: With the proviso that there are an adequate number of sequences known for the protein family, the new methods essentially solve the long-standing problem of predicting the fold topology of monomeric proteins. Further, the number of sequences required in the alignment has fallen substantially. There is also substantial improvement in the accuracy of template-based models. Other areas—model refinement, accuracy estimation, and the structure of protein assemblies—have again yielded interesting results. CASP13 placed increased emphasis on the use of sparse data together with modeling and chemical crosslinking, SAXS, and NMR all yielded more mature results. This paper summarizes the key outcomes of CASP13. The special issue of PROTEINS contains papers describing the CASP13 assessments in each modeling category and contributions from the participants.     

Assessment of protein model structure accuracy estimation in CASP13: Challenges in the era of deep learning

Scoring model structure is an essential component of protein structure prediction that can affect the prediction accuracy tremendously. Users of protein structure prediction results also need to score models to select the best models for their application studies. In Critical Assessment of techniques for protein Structure Prediction (CASP), model accuracy estimation methods have been tested in a blind fashion by providing models submitted by the tertiary structure prediction servers for scoring. In CASP13, model accuracy estimation results were evaluated in terms of both global and local structure accuracy. Global structure accuracy estimation was evaluated by the quality of the models selected by the global structure scores and by the absolute estimates of the global scores. Residue-wise, local structure accuracy estimations were evaluated by three different measures. A new measure introduced in CASP13 evaluates the ability to predict inaccurately modeled regions that may be improved by refinement. An intensive comparative analysis on CASP13 and the previous CASPs revealed that the tertiary structure models generated by the CASP13 servers show very distinct features. Higher consensus toward models of higher global accuracy appeared even for free modeling targets, and many models of high global accuracy were not well optimized at the atomic level. This is related to the new technology in CASP13, deep learning for tertiary contact prediction. The tertiary model structures generated by deep learning pose a new challenge for EMA (estimation of model accuracy) method developers. Model accuracy estimation itself is also an area where deep learning can potentially have an impact, although current EMA methods have not fully explored that direction.     

Analysis of distance-based protein structure prediction by deep learning in CASP13

This paper reports the CASP13 results of distance-based contact prediction, threading, and folding methods implemented in three RaptorX servers, which are built upon the powerful deep convolutional residual neural network (ResNet) method initiated by us for contact prediction in CASP12. On the 32 CASP13 FM (free-modeling) targets with a median multiple sequence alignment (MSA) depth of 36, RaptorX yielded the best contact prediction among 46 groups and almost the best 3D structure modeling among all server groups without time-consuming conformation sampling. In particular, RaptorX achieved top L/5, L/2, and L long-range contact precision of 70%, 58%, and 45%, respectively, and predicted correct folds (TMscore > 0.5) for 18 of 32 targets. Further, RaptorX predicted correct folds for all FM targets with >300 residues (T0950-D1, T0969-D1, and T1000-D2) and generated the best 3D models for T0950-D1 and T0969-D1 among all groups. This CASP13 test confirms our previous findings: (a) predicted distance is more useful than contacts for both template-based and free modeling; and (b) structure modeling may be improved by integrating template and coevolutionary information via deep learning. This paper will discuss progress we have made since CASP12, the strength and weakness of our methods, and why deep learning performed much better in CASP13.     

An information measure of the quality of protein secondary structure prediction.

We describe an information-theory-based measure of the quality of secondary structure prediction (RELINFO). RELINFO has a simple yet intuitive interpretation: it represents the factor by which secondary structure choice at a residue has been restricted by a prediction scheme. As an alternative interpretation of secondary structure prediction, RELINFO complements currently used methods by providing an information-based view as to why a prediction succeeds and fails. To demonstrate this score's capabilities, we applied RELINFO to an analysis of a large set of secondary structure predictions obtained from the first five rounds of the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment. RELINFO is compared with two other common measures: percent correct (Q3) and secondary structure overlap (SOV). While the correlation between Q3 and RELINFO is approximately 0.85, RELINFO avoids certain disadvantages of Q3, including overestimating the quality of a prediction. The correlation between SOV and RELINFO is approximately 0.75. The valuable SOV measure unfortunately suffers from a saturation problem, and perhaps has unfairly given the general impression that secondary structure prediction has reached its limit since SOV hasn't improved much over the recent rounds of CASP. Although not a replacement for SOV, RELINFO has greater dispersion. Over the five rounds of CASP assessed here, RELINFO shows that predictions targets have been more difficult in successive CASP experiments, yet the predictions quality has continued to improve measurably over each round. In terms of information, the secondary structure prediction quality has almost doubled from CASP1 to CASP5. Therefore, as a different perspective of accuracy, RELINFO can help to improve prediction of protein secondary structure by providing a measure of difficulty as well as final quality of a prediction.     

LiveBench-8: the large-scale, continuous assessment of automated protein structure prediction

We present the results of the evaluation of the latest LiveBench-8 experiment. These results provide a snapshot view of the state of the art in automated protein structure prediction, just before the 2004 CAFASP-4/CASP-6 experiments begin. The last CAFASP/CASP experiments demonstrated that automated meta-predictors entail a significant advance in the field, already challenging most human expert predictors. LiveBench-8 corroborates the superior performance of meta-predictors, which are able to produce useful predictions for over one-half of the test targets. More importantly, LiveBench-8 identifies a handful of recently developed autonomous (nonmeta) servers that perform at the very top, suggesting that further progress in the individual methods has recently been obtained.     

Crystal structures of human caspase 6 reveal a new mechanism for intramolecular cleavage self-activation

Dimeric effectors caspase 3 and caspase 7 are activated by initiator caspase processing. In this study, we report the crystal structures of effector caspase 6 (CASP6) zymogen and N-Acetyl-Val-Glu-Ile-Asp-al-inhibited CASP6. Both of these forms of CASP6 have a dimeric structure, and in CASP6 zymogen the intersubunit cleavage site (190)TEVD(193) is well structured and inserts into the active site. This positions residue Asp 193 to be easily attacked by the catalytic residue Cys 163. We demonstrate biochemically that intramolecular cleavage at Asp 193 is a prerequisite for CASP6 self-activation and that this activation mechanism is dependent on the length of the L2 loop. Our results indicate that CASP6 can be activated and regulated through intramolecular self-cleavage.     

A study of quality measures for protein threading models

Background  

Prediction of protein structures is one of the fundamental challenges in biology today. To fully understand how well different prediction methods perform, it is necessary to use measures that evaluate their performance. Every two years, starting in 1994, the CASP (Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction) process has been organized to evaluate the ability of different predictors to blindly predict the structure of proteins. To capture different features of the models, several measures have been developed during the CASP processes. However, these measures have not been examined in detail before. In an attempt to develop fully automatic measures that can be used in CASP, as well as in other type of benchmarking experiments, we have compared twenty-one measures. These measures include the measures used in CASP3 and CASP2 as well as have measures introduced later. We have studied their ability to distinguish between the better and worse models submitted to CASP3 and the correlation between them.     

Rapid knot detection and application to protein structure prediction

MOTIVATION: Knots in polypeptide chains have been found in very few proteins, and consequently should be generally avoided in protein structure prediction methods. Most effective structure prediction methods do not model the protein folding process itself, but rather seek only to correctly obtain the final native state. Consequently, the mechanisms that prevent knots from occurring in native proteins are not relevant to the modeling process, and as a result, knots can occur with significantly higher frequency in protein models. Here we describe Knotfind, a simple algorithm for knot detection that is fast enough for structure prediction, where tens or hundreds of thousands of conformations may be sampled during the course of a prediction. We have used this algorithm to characterize knots in large populations of model structures generated for targets in CASP 5 and CASP 6 using the Rosetta homology-based modeling method. RESULTS: Analysis of CASP5 models suggested several possible avenues for introduction of knots into these models, and these insights were applied to structure prediction in CASP 6, resulting in a significant decrease in the proportion of knotted models generated. Additionally, using the knot detection algorithm on structures in the Protein Data Bank, a previously unreported deep trefoil knot was found in acetylornithine transcarbamylase. AVAILABILITY: The Knotfind algorithm is available in the Rosetta structure prediction program at http://www.rosettacommons.org.     

Improving protein tertiary structure prediction by deep learning and distance prediction in CASP14

Substantial progresses in protein structure prediction have been made by utilizing deep-learning and residue-residue distance prediction since CASP13. Inspired by the advances, we improve our CASP14 MULTICOM protein structure prediction system by incorporating three new components: (a) a new deep learning-based protein inter-residue distance predictor to improve template-free (ab initio) tertiary structure prediction, (b) an enhanced template-based tertiary structure prediction method, and (c) distance-based model quality assessment methods empowered by deep learning. In the 2020 CASP14 experiment, MULTICOM predictor was ranked seventh out of 146 predictors in tertiary structure prediction and ranked third out of 136 predictors in inter-domain structure prediction. The results demonstrate that the template-free modeling based on deep learning and residue-residue distance prediction can predict the correct topology for almost all template-based modeling targets and a majority of hard targets (template-free targets or targets whose templates cannot be recognized), which is a significant improvement over the CASP13 MULTICOM predictor. Moreover, the template-free modeling performs better than the template-based modeling on not only hard targets but also the targets that have homologous templates. The performance of the template-free modeling largely depends on the accuracy of distance prediction closely related to the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The structural model quality assessment works well on targets for which enough good models can be predicted, but it may perform poorly when only a few good models are predicted for a hard target and the distribution of model quality scores is highly skewed. MULTICOM is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/MULTICOM_Human_CASP14/tree/CASP14_DeepRank3 and https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/multicom/tree/multicom_v2.0 .     

Functional inferences from blind ab initio protein structure predictions

Ab initio protein structure prediction methods have improved dramatically in the past several years. Because these methods require only the sequence of the protein of interest, they are potentially applicable to the open reading frames in the many organisms whose sequences have been and will be determined. Ab initio methods cannot currently produce models of high enough resolution for use in rational drug design, but there is an exciting potential for using the methods for functional annotation of protein sequences on a genomic scale. Here we illustrate how functional insights can be obtained from low-resolution predicted structures using examples from blind ab initio structure predictions from the third and fourth critical assessment of structure prediction (CASP3, CASP4) experiments.     

Protein structure validation by generalized linear model root-mean-square deviation prediction

Large-scale initiatives for obtaining spatial protein structures by experimental or computational means have accentuated the need for the critical assessment of protein structure determination and prediction methods. These include blind test projects such as the critical assessment of protein structure prediction (CASP) and the critical assessment of protein structure determination by nuclear magnetic resonance (CASD-NMR). An important aim is to establish structure validation criteria that can reliably assess the accuracy of a new protein structure. Various quality measures derived from the coordinates have been proposed. A universal structural quality assessment method should combine multiple individual scores in a meaningful way, which is challenging because of their different measurement units. Here, we present a method based on a generalized linear model (GLM) that combines diverse protein structure quality scores into a single quantity with intuitive meaning, namely the predicted coordinate root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) value between the present structure and the (unavailable) "true" structure (GLM-RMSD). For two sets of structural models from the CASD-NMR and CASP projects, this GLM-RMSD value was compared with the actual accuracy given by the RMSD value to the corresponding, experimentally determined reference structure from the Protein Data Bank (PDB). The correlation coefficients between actual (model vs. reference from PDB) and predicted (model vs. "true") heavy-atom RMSDs were 0.69 and 0.76, for the two datasets from CASD-NMR and CASP, respectively, which is considerably higher than those for the individual scores (-0.24 to 0.68). The GLM-RMSD can thus predict the accuracy of protein structures more reliably than individual coordinate-based quality scores.     

i3Drefine Software for Protein 3D Structure Refinement and Its Assessment in CASP10

Protein structure refinement refers to the process of improving the qualities of protein structures during structure modeling processes to bring them closer to their native states. Structure refinement has been drawing increasing attention in the community-wide Critical Assessment of techniques for Protein Structure prediction (CASP) experiments since its addition in 8^th CASP experiment. During the 9^th and recently concluded 10^th CASP experiments, a consistent growth in number of refinement targets and participating groups has been witnessed. Yet, protein structure refinement still remains a largely unsolved problem with majority of participating groups in CASP refinement category failed to consistently improve the quality of structures issued for refinement. In order to alleviate this need, we developed a completely automated and computationally efficient protein 3D structure refinement method, i3Drefine, based on an iterative and highly convergent energy minimization algorithm with a powerful all-atom composite physics and knowledge-based force fields and hydrogen bonding (HB) network optimization technique. In the recent community-wide blind experiment, CASP10, i3Drefine (as ‘MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT’) was ranked as the best method in the server section as per the official assessment of CASP10 experiment. Here we provide the community with free access to i3Drefine software and systematically analyse the performance of i3Drefine in strict blind mode on the refinement targets issued in CASP10 refinement category and compare with other state-of-the-art refinement methods participating in CASP10. Our analysis demonstrates that i3Drefine is only fully-automated server participating in CASP10 exhibiting consistent improvement over the initial structures in both global and local structural quality metrics. Executable version of i3Drefine is freely available at http://protein.rnet.missouri.edu/i3drefine/.