种群生存力分析（PVA）的方法与应用

随着人们对资源的加速利用,生境丧失和破碎化导致物种濒危问题日益严重.以岛屿生物地理学为理论起源的种群生存力分析（PVA）,通过分析和模拟种群动态过程并建立灭绝概率与种群数量之间的关系,为濒危物种保护提供了重要的理论依据和研究途径.在过去的几十年中,种群生存力分析已成为保护生物学中一项重要的研究内容.目前种群生存力分析发展稳定,但对其实际预测能力和准确性尚存质疑,应用方面也有待进一步发展.种群生存力分析的进一步完善还需要在理论和方法上的创新,特别是籍于景观生态学和可持续性科学的理念,将空间分析手段、经济社会因素纳入到物种和种群的预测和管理上,从而使其 具有更完整的理论基础和更高的实用价值.为此,本文对种群生存力分析的历史、基本概念、研究方法、模型应用和准确性进行了综述,并提出了有关的研究展望.     

种群生存力分析研究进展和趋势

种群生存力分析（PVA）是正在迅速发展的新方法,已成为保护生物学研究的热点。它主要研究随机干扰对小种群绝灭的影响,其目的是制定最小可存活种群（MVP）,把绝灭减少到可接受的水平。随机干扰可分四类;统计随机性,环境随机性,自然灾害和遗传随机性。确定MVP的方法有三种：理论模型,模拟模型,模拟模型和岛屿生物地理学方法。理论模型主要研究理想或特定条件下随机因素对种群的影响;模拟模型是利用计算机模拟种群绝灭过程;岛屿生物地理学方法主要分析岛屿物种的分布和存活,证实分析模型和模拟模型。已有大量的文献研究统计随机性,环境随机性和自然灾害的行为特征,但遗传因素与种群生存力之间的关系还不清楚。建立包括四种随机性的综合性模型,广泛地检验PVA模型,系统地研制目标种的遗传和生态特性以及MVP的实际应用是PVA的发展趋势。     

Evaluating spatially explicit viability of a declining ruffed grouse population

Species associated with early successional habitats have experienced dramatic declines in the eastern United States as a result of land use changes and human disruption of natural disturbance regimes. Consequently, active management is required to create early successional habitat and promote plant and animal communities that depend on periodic forest disturbance. Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) depend on recently disturbed forest habitat, and have experienced dramatic declines over the last half-century. Although ruffed grouse are extensively studied, little effort has been made to link population dynamics with habitat management at landscape scales. We used stochastic, spatially explicit population models that combined landscape conditions derived from a Geographic Information System with demographic data, and applied the model to a declining ruffed grouse population in Rhode Island, USA. We identified vital rates that influence ruffed grouse population dynamics using baseline models constructed with current demographic rates and landscape conditions, and assessed the effect of landscape-scale forest management alternatives on population persistence by running multiple management simulations. Baseline models typically predicted population decline, and we concluded that vital rates (survival and recruitment) had a greater influence on population persistence than did dispersal capability, carrying capacity, or initial population size. Management simulations predicted greater population persistence under a scenario where high-quality habitat was provided in fewer large blocks as opposed to many small blocks, and the rate at which we allowed ruffed grouse to colonize newly created habitat had a substantial impact on management success. Populations of ruffed grouse in the eastern United States are likely to continue to decline given current disturbance regimes, and our work provides a link between ruffed grouse demography and landscape-scale habitat conditions to support management decisions. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Differential influences of local subpopulations on regional diversity and differentiation for greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

The distribution of spatial genetic variation across a region can shape evolutionary dynamics and impact population persistence. Local population dynamics and among‐population dispersal rates are strong drivers of this spatial genetic variation, yet for many species we lack a clear understanding of how these population processes interact in space to shape within‐species genetic variation. Here, we used extensive genetic and demographic data from 10 subpopulations of greater sage‐grouse to parameterize a simulated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) model and (i) test for regional differences in population density and dispersal rates for greater sage‐grouse subpopulations in Wyoming, and (ii) quantify how these differences impact subpopulation regional influence on genetic variation. We found a close match between observed and simulated data under our parameterized model and strong variation in density and dispersal rates across Wyoming. Sensitivity analyses suggested that changes in dispersal (via landscape resistance) had a greater influence on regional differentiation, whereas changes in density had a greater influence on mean diversity across all subpopulations. Local subpopulations, however, varied in their regional influence on genetic variation. Decreases in the size and dispersal rates of central populations with low overall and net immigration (i.e. population sources) had the greatest negative impact on genetic variation. Overall, our results provide insight into the interactions among demography, dispersal and genetic variation and highlight the potential of ABC to disentangle the complexity of regional population dynamics and project the genetic impact of changing conditions.     

陕西府谷自然保护区杜松种群的空间分布格局及其动态

采用方差/均值比率法和5个聚集度指标研究了陕西府谷自然保护区杜松(Juniperus rigida Sieb.etZucc.)种群15个样地的空间分布格局及动态特征。结果表明,杜松种群的空间分布格局为聚集分布,其v/m值、负二项参数、聚块性指数、丛生指数、平均拥挤度和Morisita指数分别为1.98、1.84、1.54、0.98、2.79和1.54。随着径级的增大,聚块性指数逐渐减小,种群的聚集程度也减小,Ⅶ级大树呈随机分布,该种群表现出明显的扩散趋势。调查发现,人为干扰对杜松种群的空间分布格局有较大影响。     

Sex-specific population dynamics and demography of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) in a patchy environment

Modeling the population dynamics of patchily distributed species is a challenge, particularly when inference must be based on incomplete and small data sets such as those from most species of conservation concern. Here, we develop an open population spatial capture–recapture (SCR) model with sex-specific detection and population dynamics parameters to investigate population trend and sex-specific population dynamics of a capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) population in Switzerland living in eight distinct forest patches totaling 22 km² within a region of 908 km² and sampled via scat collection. Our model accounts for the patchy distribution of habitat and the uncertainty introduced by collecting data only every third year, while producing sex by patch population trajectories. The estimated population trajectory was a decline of 2% per year; however, the sex specificity of the model revealed a decline in the male population only, with no evidence of decline in the female population. The decline observed in males was explained by the demography of just two of the eight patches. Our study highlights the flexibility of open population SCR models for assessing population trajectories through time and across space and emphasizes the desirability of estimating sex-stratified population trends especially in species of conservation concern.     

大院资源冷杉种群的空间分布格局分析

资源冷杉是极度濒危的我国特有植物,其中的湖南省炎陵县大院资源冷杉种群是种群规模最大的种 群.该研究采用点格局分析方法分析了该种群的种群分布格局,用计盒维数和信息维数研究了种群格局的分形特征.结果表明:大院资源冷杉种群的空间分布格局总体上呈聚集分布;种群的计盒维数在1.047～1.354 之间,种群占据空间程度较弱;...     

Spatial distribution patterns and association of Picea crassifolia population in Dayekou Basin of Qilian Mountains,northwestern China

研究青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)种群不同发育阶段的空间分布格局及其关联性, 能揭示其种群的发展规律, 推断其潜在的生态学过程或影响机制, 进而为该种群的配置、种植和森林的经营与管理等提供指导。该研究基于祁连山大野口流域10.2 hm²青海云杉动态监测样地调查资料, 分析了青海云杉群落的物种组成和径级结构, 并采用点格局方法, 通过单变量成对相关函数和双变量成对相关函数对不同年龄阶段青海云杉种群的空间分布格局及其空间关联性进行分析。结果表明: (1)青海云杉种群的径级结构呈倒“J”型分布, 属增长型种群, 种群自然更新状况良好。(2)青海云杉种群4个径级的个体在小尺度上呈聚集分布, 但随着空间尺度的增大, 聚集强度逐渐减弱, 趋向随机分布; 较小径级的个体常呈聚集分布, 而随着径级增大, 也趋向于随机分布。(3)青海云杉大树个体在小尺度(<4 m)范围内与其他径级个体都呈负关联, 随着尺度的增加, 大树与幼树表现出正关联且关联性随尺度的增加而减弱, 而与小树、中树则表现为无关联或者微弱的负关联; 径级相近的个体空间关联性为正关联或无关联, 随着个体径级间差距增大, 空间关联性转变为无关联或负关联。研究表明, 祁连山大野口流域青海云杉种群的分布格局及其关联性随空间尺度和发育阶段而变化, 这是由种群自身的生物生态学特性、种内种间关系以及环境条件共同作用的结果。     

Microsatellite analysis of female mating behaviour in lek-breeding sage grouse

We used microsatellite DNA markers to genotype chicks in 10 broods of lek-breeding sage grouse, Centrocercus urophasianus, whose mothers' behaviour was studied by radio-tracking and observing leks. Previous behavioural studies suggested that almost all matings are performed by territorial males on leks and that multiple mating is rare. Two broods (20%) were sired by more than one male. Genetic analyses of the broods of eight females that visited an intensively studied lek were consistent with behavioural observations. Four females observed mating produced singly sired broods and males other than the individual observed copulating were excluded as sires for most or all of their chicks. Territorial males at the study lek were excluded as sires of broods of four other females that visited the lek but were not observed mating there. Radio-tracking suggested that two of these females mated at other leks. Our results confirm the reliability of mating observations at leks, but do not rule out a possible unseen component of the mating system.     

Spatial heterogeneity and population risk analysis of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera, in China

In this study, semivariance was used to quantitatively measure the spatial heterogeneity for the egg population of cotton bollworm during a growing season. The typical characteristic parameters of theoretical semivariance models against lag distances were applied to measure components of spatial heterogeneity： trend, range, spatial dependence, and the strength of spatial dependence. Then, kriging interpolation was used to evaluate the population risk of cotton bollworm exceeding economic thresholds. From early June through early September, the population densities were sampled 10 times in the study field. Results showed that the spatial patterns were related to population density. For its low-density population, the spatially heterogeneous trends were usually of spherical shapes; but for highdensity ones, the trends shifted to Gaussian shapes. The spatial dependence appeared at varied distances ranging from 52 meters to 936 meters, and the spatial dependence was in the range of 0.39-288.60, which changed with population densities. While having high heterogeneity, the strength of spatial dependence became much stronger. Results of population risk analysis showed that there was a high risk during its early stages, especially in mid-June. In August, population risk was so low that it did not need to be controlled.     

桂林岩溶石山青冈优势种群空间分布格局及关联分析

种群空间分布格局是研究种群特征、种间相互作用以及种群与环境关系的重要手段。青冈(Cyclobalanopsis glauca)是岩溶生态系统顶极群落的建种群，为进一步了解其种群空间分布格局特征，该研究根据样地调查规范对面积为60 m×60 m样地中的木本植物进行空间定位且进行每木调查，并运用点格局方法中的g(r)和L₁₂(r)函数对青冈幼苗(DBH<2 cm)、幼树(2 cm≤DBH<10 cm)和成树(10 cm≤DBH)进行空间分布特征和关联性分析。结果表明：(1)青冈种群的径级结构符合倒“J”型分布。(2)幼苗、幼树和成树在较小尺度上表现为聚集分布，而幼树和成树在中、大尺度上基本表现为随机分布。(3)不同径级个体空间关联性主要表现为幼苗与幼树在0～15 m尺度上呈正相关；幼树与成树在0～10 m尺度上呈不相关，而在10～15 m尺度上呈正相关；幼苗与成树在0～2 m尺度上呈不相关，而在2～15 m尺度上呈正相关。因此，青冈种群的分布格局及其关联性随空间尺度和发育阶段而变化，这是由种群自身的生物学特性、种内种间关系以及环境条件共同作用的结果。该研究...     

Spatial extent of analysis influences observed patterns of population genetic structure in a widespread darter species (Percidae)

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Genetic mark-recapture analysis of winter faecal pellets allows estimation of population size in Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

The Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus is a species of conservation concern throughout its range in western North America. Since the 1950s, the high count of males at leks has been used as an index for monitoring populations. However, the relationship between this lek-count index and population size is unclear, and its reliability for assessing population trends has been questioned. We used non-invasive genetic mark-recapture analysis of faecal and feather samples to estimate pre-breeding population size for the Parachute-Piceance-Roan, a small, geographically isolated population of Sage Grouse in western Colorado, during two consecutive winters from 2012 to 2014. We estimated total pre-breeding population size as 335 (95% confidence interval (CI): 287–382) in the first winter and 745 (95% CI: 627–864) in the second, an approximate doubling in abundance between years. Although we also observed a large increase in the spring lek-count index between those years, high male count data poorly represented mark-recapture estimates of male abundance in each year. Our data suggest that lek counts are useful for detecting the direction and magnitude of large changes in Sage Grouse abundance over time but they may not reliably reflect small changes in abundance that may be relevant to small populations of conservation concern.     

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