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1.
The status of Ireland's harbour seal Phoca vitulina vitulina population is poorly understood. The most recent national population estimate dates back to the breeding season in 1978 and did not cover the entire coastline. Reliable up-to-date information on the abundance and distribution of harbour seals in Ireland is necessary to assess the conservation status of the species and for the effective identification, management and monitoring of special areas of conservation required for harbour seals under the EU Habitats Directive. To provide comprehensive current information on Ireland's harbour seal population, a geographically extensive survey was conducted along the coastline of the Republic of Ireland during the species' annual moult in August 2003. This complemented a similar survey of Northern Ireland, which was conducted in 2002. Using thermal imaging technology, haul-out groups of harbour seals and grey seals Halichoerus grypus were identified from the air, aerial-counts were obtained and compared with simultaneous ground-count data from selected sites. Harbour seal distribution recorded during the 2003 moult season was concentrated in the south-west, west and north-west of the country. This national survey yielded a minimum population estimate for the Republic of Ireland of 2905 harbour seals, delivering an effective baseline for current and future population research.  相似文献   

2.
1. The harbour seal population Phoca vitulina in the entire Wadden Sea was severely depleted due to a virus-epizootic during 1988. A comprehensive study on the population biology and activity patterns was subsequently initiated to design a management and conservation plan. The main objective of this study was to estimate harbour seal abundance in the different regions of the Wadden Sea.
2. We investigated the potential of a mark–recapture experiment using VHF radio-tags in combination with repeated aerial surveys to estimate the number of harbour seals in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea. The number of harbour seals hauled-out and the presence of any radio-tagged seals was monitored during seven aerial surveys of all known haul-out sites in the Dutch Wadden Sea over the 1994 breeding season.
3. A maximum likelihood (ML) estimator was developed to infer the rate of tag-loss and the size of the local prepupping population.
4. The ML estimate of the number of harbour seals in the Dutch Wadden Sea was 1536 (95% confidence limits were 1225 and 2200). The corresponding maximum proportion of seals hauled-out was 68%.
5. The use of VHF radio-tags which can be monitored from the air provides a way of correcting aerial survey counts for the proportion of harbour seals hauled-out during the surveys. Since haul-out behaviour may be influenced by local conditions, such as exposure time of sand banks, we recommend this technique be repeated in other areas of the Wadden Sea rather than using the estimates from the current study in other areas.  相似文献   

3.
Aerial surveys have been used to estimate population abundance of both terrestrial and marine species; in the marine environment this has largely been used for air-breathing species that spend time regularly at the surface. Whale sharks spend a large proportion of their time close to the surface and so are amenable to aerial survey techniques. This study presents the results of six years of synoptic aerial belt-surveys done nearly daily during the peak whale shark season around the island of Mahe, Seychelles. A total of 580 survey flights were flown providing 699.7 hours of survey record. A seasonal peak of shark sightings per hour was recorded in September or October in most years with the maximum on a single survey of 28.4 h- 1 in October 2006. The aerial survey data were used to generate an estimate of relative population abundance indicating that highest mean annual relative population estimate was also in 2006, with an estimate of 38, while the lowest mean estimate was 11 in 2004. These estimates were then compared to weekly capture-mark-recapture estimates of abundance based on unique individual identification data. The results indicate that the use of aerial survey data alone may give an acceptable indication of instantaneous relative population abundance but further refinement is necessary to estimate absolute regional abundance.  相似文献   

4.
Summary The elephant seal population of South Georgia was surveyed comprehensively during the 1985 breeding season. 87711 females and 10260 adult males were counted. The counts were corrected using a model of the haul-out distribution to adjust for date of count. Annual pup production was estimated to be about 102000. Counts made at various beaches on South Georgia between 1951 and 1964 were examined to compare pup production then with present data. Although the population has fluctuated substantially, the 1985 population estimate was very similar to the estimate based on an incomplete survey in 1951. This contrasts with the Indian Ocean and Macquarie Island populations of this species which recent surveys show to be declining.  相似文献   

5.
Capsule The third national Merlin survey estimated a UK population of 1162 breeding pairs (95% CI: 891–1462).

Aims To estimate the number of breeding Merlins (with associated 95% confidence intervals) in the UK and the four countries (Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland), and to compare these with the relevant estimates from the 1993–94 Merlin survey. In addition, to calculate estimates of change for several regional populations with complete survey coverage during both national surveys.

Methods A subset of 10-km squares (Raptor Study Group squares and randomly sampled squares) was surveyed across the breeding distribution of Merlins in the UK using standardised methods devised during the 1993–94 national survey.

Results The population estimate for Merlins in the UK was 1162 breeding pairs, and in Britain was 1128 pairs (95% CI: 849–1427), which although 13% lower, was not significantly different from the British estimate of the 1993–94 survey. Scotland held the bulk (733 pairs) of the UK Merlin population, and smaller numbers of 301 pairs, 94 pairs and 32 pairs were estimated for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, respectively. The population estimate for Wales may have been biased upwards by low coverage in the south of the country. Marked declines were noted in several regional Merlin populations, particularly in areas of northern England.

Conclusions The 2008 Merlin survey suggests that the population in Britain has remained relatively stable since 1993–94, but with local declines, particularly in northern England. Currently, little is known about important drivers of regional population change in Merlins, but changes in land-use, prey populations and climate are likely to be important factors.  相似文献   

6.
The Grey seal breeding assembly on North Rona was studied throughout autumn 1972. Weekly censuses provided data on birth rate and mortality. It is estimated that 1736 pups were born in 1972. This is about 500 less than the mean production estimate for this assembly during the period 1959–71, possibly a result of disturbance of the breeding site by the expedition. About 600 of the pups died before putting to sea. The mean date of birth and the duration of the pupping season agree closely with earlier work on North Rona, although the mean daily birth rate curve is somewhat irregular, perhaps because there was an unusually dry spell of weather at a critical time in the pupping season. An improved estimate of mortality at this assembly showed a relationship with pup density similar to that observed at the Fame Islands. Techniques for estimating pup production (and consequently total population), though not reliable for determining absolute values, are useful for indicating trends and they suggest a stable population of 8000–9000 animals at North Rona. Such estimates might be improved by the use of better methods of aerial photography.  相似文献   

7.
Relatively simple foraging radius models have the potential to generate predictive distributions for a large number of species rapidly, thus providing a cost-effective alternative to large-scale surveys or complex modelling approaches. Their effectiveness, however, remains largely untested. Here we compare foraging radius distribution models for all breeding seabirds in Ireland, to distributions of empirical data collected from tracking studies and aerial surveys. At the local/colony level, we compared foraging radius distributions to GPS tracking data from seabirds with short (Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica, and razorbill Alca torda) and long (Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, and European storm-petrel Hydrobates pelagicus) foraging ranges. At the regional/national level, we compared foraging radius distributions to extensive aerial surveys conducted over a two-year period. Foraging radius distributions were significantly positively correlated with tracking data for all species except Manx shearwater. Correlations between foraging radius distributions and aerial survey data were also significant, but generally weaker than those for tracking data. Correlations between foraging radius distributions and aerial survey data were benchmarked against generalised additive models (GAMs) of the aerial survey data that included a range of environmental covariates. While GAM distributions had slightly higher correlations with aerial survey data, the results highlight that the foraging radius approach can be a useful and pragmatic approach for assessing breeding distributions for many seabird species. The approach is likely to have acceptable utility in complex, temporally variable ecosystems and when logistic and financial resources are limited.  相似文献   

8.
Macaroni penguins Eudyptes chrysolophus are thought to be one of the most important mesopredators in the Southern Ocean having a greater impact on prey availability and abundance than any other seabird species. Their population centre has long been held to be South Georgia where populations were thought to comprise many million animals. Here we report the results of a recent census of the macaroni population at South Georgia undertaken using aerial survey methods. We report dramatic declines in numbers (~1.0 million breeding pairs) compared to numbers observed in the late 1970s (~5.4 million pairs), but show that these reductions have occurred principally at sites where numbers had previously been very large. During the breeding season, the main foraging grounds of birds from these sites overlap with the foraging grounds of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella, a major competitor for their principal prey, Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. We suggest that the redistribution of the macaroni penguin population at South Georgia reflects the recent recovery of fur seal populations and thus the ongoing consequences of human intervention at South Georgia, a process which started more than 2 centuries previously. The implied resource competition and the observed population changes may also be exacerbated by recent reductions in Antarctic krill abundance which have been linked with reductions in seasonal sea ice following recent, rapid, regional warming in the Antarctic; however, the recovery of fur seal populations, and the ongoing recovery of krill‐eating whale populations argues that tropho‐dynamic interactions may be sufficient to explain the observed changes.  相似文献   

9.
Aerial counts of harbor seals ( Pboca vitulina concolor ) on ledges along the Maine coast were conducted during the pupping season in 1981, 1986, 1993, 1997, and 2001. Between 1981 and 2001, the uncorrected counts of seals increased from 10,543 to 38,014, an annual rate of 6.6 percent. In 2001 30 harbor seals were captured and radio-tagged prior to aerial counts. Of these, 19 harbor seals (six adult males, two adult females, seven juvenile males, and four juvenile females) were available during the survey to develop a correction factor for the fraction of seals not observed. The corrected 2001 abundance estimate was 99,340 harbor seals. Productivity in this population has increased since 1981 from 6.4% pups to 24.4% pups. The number of gray seals ( Halichoerus grypus ) counted during the harbor seal surveys increased from zero in both 1981 and 1986 to 1,731 animals in 2001.  相似文献   

10.
Fisheries bycatch is recognised as the dominant anthropogenic threat facing many protected species globally. Estimates of total bycatch are often associated with wide confidence intervals as a result of limited coverage by on-board observers. This makes it difficult for managers to assess risk and design effective management plans. Here, we present a case study of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) bycatch in static net fisheries across Irish waters, where potentially unsustainable bycatch levels have been reported with typically wide confidence intervals. We used Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to explore potential bycatch scenarios at a national level in order to inform future monitoring and management efforts; including (i) a baseline scenario where the probability of seals becoming bycaught was independent of age and sex; (ii) probability was biased towards juvenile, male, or female seals; (iii) there was net immigration of seals from outside of the national population; and (iv) colony-specific bycatch rates were applied to assess the relative vulnerability of the major grey seal breeding colonies to bycatch mortality. Results demonstrated that (i) higher levels of bycatch reduced population growth, with bycatch of 800 seals per year reducing the national population by 99% over 100 years; (ii) population viability was most sensitive to bycatch mortality of female seals, and more robust to juvenile or male mortality; (iii) recruitment of 500 seals per year prevented population decline despite a worst-case bycatch scenario of 800 seals bycaught per year; (iv) colonies in the south and southwest were the first to show signs of decline under increasing bycatch pressure. PVA provides a clear justification for improved monitoring of seal bycatch to obtain more precise bycatch estimates, and highlights the need for future studies to identify appropriate grey seal management units.  相似文献   

11.
A breeding population of black-browed albatrosses has been known to exist at the Ildefonso Archipelago, Chile, for >90 years but the population has never been censused using scientifically defendable methods. To estimate population size, and examine the accuracy and practicality of various census methods, the population was censused in the 2002/2003 breeding season using (a) ground-truthed aerial photography, (b) yacht-based photography, (c) ground counts, (d) quadrat sampling and (e) point-distance sampling. Compared to ground-truthed aerial photography (judged the most accurate) yacht-based photography underestimated population size by 55%, ground counts by 13%, quadrat sampling by 11% and point-distance sampling by 9%. Ground-truthed air photography revealed that in the 2002/2003 breeding season 47,000 pairs of black-browed albatrosses bred at the Ildefonso Archipelago. A repeat aerial census in 2006 suggested the size of the breeding population had not changed in the 4 years between the two censuses. After the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, South Georgia and Diego Ramirez, the Ildefonso Archipelago holds the fourth largest population of black-browed albatrosses in the world.  相似文献   

12.
Capsule: The data presented here demonstrate a considerable spatial overlap between wind farms and the breeding distribution of Hen Harriers in Ireland, but evidence for a negative impact of wind farms on their population is weak.

Aims: To assess the extent of the overlap between wind farms and breeding Hen Harriers and to investigate their potential impact on Hen Harrier population trends.

Methods: Data on Hen Harrier breeding distribution in 10?km?×?10?km survey squares from national surveys were used in conjunction with information on the location of wind farms to examine whether, and to what extent, changes in Hen Harrier distribution and abundance between 2000 and 2010 were related to wind energy development.

Results: Of the 69 survey squares holding Hen Harriers during the 2010 breeding season, 28% also overlapped with one or more wind farms. Data from 36 of the squares with breeding Hen Harriers during the 2000 survey revealed a marginally non-significant negative relationship between wind farm presence and change in the number of breeding pairs between 2000 and 2010.

Conclusions: A considerable overlap exists between Hen Harrier breeding distribution and the location of wind farms in Ireland, particularly in areas between 200 and 400?m above sea level. The presence of wind farms is negatively related to Hen Harrier population trends in squares surveyed in 2000 and 2010, but this relationship is not statistically significant, and may not be causal. This is the first study to assess the influence of wind energy development on Hen Harriers at such a large geographic and population scale.  相似文献   

13.
Capsule: The second national survey of Twite Linaria flavirostris estimated a UK breeding population of 7831 pairs (95% confidence limits: 5829–10?137) in 2013.

Aims: To estimate the breeding population size of Twite in the UK and constituent countries and to calculate change since the 1999 survey.

Methods: Counts of Twite were made on three visits between May and July across a stratified random sample of 1-km squares in England, Scotland and Wales. In Northern Ireland, a complete census was made of the known range and adjacent 1-km squares with suitable habitat. Field surveys involved walking line transects 200 m apart and, in suitable nesting habitat, making 5-minute stops at 100 m intervals to scan and listen for Twite.

Results: The UK population of Twite was estimated at 7831 pairs (95% CL: 5829–10?137). This was 21% lower but not significantly different from the 1999 survey estimate. Scotland held 98% of the UK population (7640, 95% CL: 5629–9954). There were an estimated 164 pairs (95% CL: 76–297) in England, a significant decline of 72% from 1999. Estimated totals for Wales and Northern Ireland were 16 (95% CL: 10–24) and 18 pairs respectively.

Conclusion: The second national survey suggests a moderate decline in the UK Twite population since 1999 but with considerable variation between countries. Further work is required to understand the drivers of population change across breeding populations.  相似文献   

14.
Seabird numbers can change rapidly as a result of environmental processes, both natural and anthropogenic. Informed management and conservation of seabirds requires accurate and precise monitoring of population size. However, for burrow‐nesting species this is rarely achieved due to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in burrow occupancy. Here, we describe a novel method for deriving more accurate population size estimates that employs mark‐recapture methods to correct for unknown variation in nest occupancy throughout a breeding season. We apply it to estimate breeding numbers of a colonial, burrowing seabird, the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor, on the Summerland Peninsula, Phillip Island, Australia. Estimates of active burrow numbers during the September 2008 to February 2009 breeding season were adjusted to numbers of breeding birds based on burrow occupation and modelled population demographics at six, fortnightly monitored reference sites. The population was estimated to be 26 100 (95% CI: 21 100–31 100) and 28 400 (23 800–33 000) breeding Penguins in two temporally separated surveys within one breeding season. We demonstrate using simulation that the method is robust to variation in burrow occupancy throughout the breeding season, providing consistent and more accurate estimates of population size. The advantage of using the corrected method is that confidence intervals will include the true population size. Confidence limits widened as burrow occupancy declined, reflecting the increased uncertainty as larger adjustments for low burrow occupancy were required. In contrast, the uncorrected method that uses burrow occupancy alone as a measure of breeding numbers was inconsistent and significantly underestimated population size across much of the breeding season. Although requiring considerably more survey effort, the corrected approach provides a more accurate means for monitoring population changes in colonially breeding animals while collecting demographic data that can help diagnose the drivers of population change.  相似文献   

15.
Understanding the habitat requirements of a species for breeding is essential for its conservation, particularly if the availability of suitable habitat is a limiting factor for population growth. This is postulated to be the case for grey seals, one of the more abundant marine apex predators in northern European waters. In common with similar studies that have investigated the habitat preferences of breeding grey seals, we use abiotic (topographical, climatological) attributes but, unlike previous work, we also incorporate behavioural variables, particularly the occurrence of aggressive interactions between females and the presence of neighbouring seals. We used two Generalized Additive Models (GAM) in a sequential and iterative fashion. The first model links the occurrence of aggression at particular points in the colony to local topography derived from a Geographical Information System (GIS), presence of neighbouring seal pups and the day of the breeding season. The output of this GAM is used as one of the explanatory variables in a GAM of daily variation in the spatial distribution of births. Although proximity of a birth site to a water source and the presence of neighbouring seal pups both had significant influences on the distribution of newborn pups over time and space, at the scale of the study site it was found that simple rules could predict pup distribution more efficiently than a complex individual-based simulation model.  相似文献   

16.
Commercial sealers exterminated the original fur seal population at Macquarie Island in the early 1800s. The first breeding record since the sealing era was not reported until March 1955. Three species of fur seal now occur at Macquarie Island, the Antarctic (Arctocephalus gazella), subantarctic (A. tropicalis) and New Zealand (A. forsteri) fur seal. Census data from 54 breeding seasons in the period 1954–2007 were used to estimate population status and growth for each species. Between the 1950s and 1970s, annual increases in pup production for the species aggregate were low. Between 1986 and 2007, pup production of Antarctic fur seals increased by about 8.8% per year and subantarctic fur seals by 6.8% per year. The New Zealand fur seal, although the most numerous fur seal species on Macquarie Island, has yet to establish a breeding population, due to the absence of reproductively mature females. Hybridisation among species is significant, but appears to be declining. The slow establishment and growth of fur seal populations on Macquarie Island appears to have been affected by its distance from major population centres and hence low immigration rates, asynchronous colonisation times of males and females of each species, and extensive hybridisation.  相似文献   

17.
Capsule: The first national survey for Snow Bunting Plectrophenax nivalis in the UK was carried out in 2011 and estimated the breeding population at 60 territories (95% confidence intervals?=?48–83).

Aims: To estimate breeding population size for Snow Buntings in the UK by surveying all sites with a history of breeding season occupation.

Methods: Surveys were carried out in June 2011 to detect males on territory at sites where Snow Bunting had been recorded during the breeding season since 1970. Each site was visited at least once during the survey period; suitable habitat was searched and vantage point watches were conducted in order to detect singing males. Repeated visits to a sample of sites allowed a correction factor to be calculated in order to account for birds undetected during surveys.

Results: In 2011, the number of Snow Bunting breeding in the UK (including adjusting for imperfect detection) is a minimum of 60 territories (95% CI?=?48–83) using confirmed and probable breeding records of males. A less conservative estimate of 99 territories (95% CI?=?88–114) results from including all records of males in suitable habitat. The vast majority of the population was found in the Cairngorm region, with isolated records in the north and west Highlands.

Conclusion: The results of the 2011 survey are consistent with well-informed estimates of the Snow Bunting population made previously. This work provides a baseline and repeatable fieldwork and analytical methods enabling future change in the population to be quantified more rigorously.  相似文献   

18.
In Ireland, the UK and Italy, the invasive North American grey squirrel, Sciurus carolinensis, threatens the survival of the Eurasian red squirrel, Sciurus vulgaris, as the effects of competition and disease almost inevitably lead to total replacement of red squirrel populations. However the results of a recent national squirrel survey suggested that the normally invasive grey squirrel had gone into decline in the Irish midlands, which was anecdotally attributed to an increase in European pine marten, Martes martes, range and numbers. This study aimed to quantify changes in squirrel distribution in Ireland and to investigate the role, if any, of the pine marten in red and grey squirrel population dynamics. A distribution survey of the midlands was carried out which confirmed the grey squirrel population has crashed in approximately 9,000 km2 of its former range and the red squirrel is common after an absence of up to 30 years. At landscape level, pine marten and red squirrel abundance were positively correlated, whereas a strong negative correlation between pine marten and grey squirrel presence at woodland level was found to exist. Squirrel demographics were determined by means of live trapping programs which confirmed that the red squirrel in the midlands is now in competitive release and the grey squirrel is present at unusually low density. This study provides the first evidence of a regional grey squirrel population crash and suggests that European pine marten abundance may be a critical factor in the American grey squirrel’s success or failure as an invasive species.  相似文献   

19.
Capsule The fourth national survey of Hen Harrier showed that the population in the UK and the Isle of Man declined significantly between 2004 and 2010.

Aim To estimate the size of the breeding Hen Harrier population (with associated 95% confidence intervals) in the UK and Isle of Man, constituent countries and Scottish regions, in 2010 and calculate population change since previous surveys in 1998 and 2004.

Methods Complete surveys were made of 10-km squares likely to be occupied by breeding Hen Harriers in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man, using standard methods developed for previous national surveys. In Scotland, a ‘census’ area was non-randomly selected for survey by volunteers, and randomly selected squares were surveyed in two strata covering the rest of the known range.

Results The UK and Isle of Man Hen Harrier population was estimated at 662 territorial pairs (95% confidence interval (CI): 576–770), a significant decline of 18% since 2004. Scotland holds the bulk (76%) of the population (505 territorial pairs; 95% CI: 417–612), with smaller numbers in Northern Ireland (59 pairs), Wales (57 pairs), the Isle of Man (29 pairs) and England (12 pairs). Declines of 49% and 20% were observed in the Isle of Man and in Scotland, respectively, whereas the Welsh population increased by 33%. A significant decrease was recorded in numbers of pairs using young and mature plantation forest in Scotland.

Conclusion The breeding population of Hen Harriers in the UK and Isle of Man declined between 2004 and 2010. Notable decreases in Scotland and the Isle of Man may be related to habitat change and illegal persecution. Illegal persecution continues to limit the population size of harriers in England to very low levels.  相似文献   

20.
Analysis of data from point counts, a common method for monitoring bird population trends, has evolved to produce estimates of various population parameters (e.g., density, abundance, and occupancy) while simultaneously estimating detection probability. An important consideration when designing studies using point counts is to maximize detection probability while minimizing variation in detection probability both within and between counts. Our objectives were to estimate detection probabilities for three marsh songbirds, including Marsh Wrens (Cistothorus palustris), Swamp Sparrows (Melospiza georgiana), and Yellow‐headed Blackbirds (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus), as a function of weather covariates and to evaluate temporal variability in detection probability of these three species. We conducted paired, unlimited radius, 10‐min point counts during consecutive morning and evening survey periods for our three focal species at 56 wetlands in Iowa from 20 April to 10 July 2010. Mean detection probabilities ranged from 0.272 (SE = 0.042) for Marsh Wrens to 0.365 (SE = 0.052) for Swamp Sparrows. Time of season was positively correlated with detection probability for Swamp Sparrows, but was negatively correlated with detection probability for Yellow‐headed Blackbirds, suggesting that detection probability increased during the breeding season for Swamp Sparrows and was highest early in the breeding season for Yellow‐headed Blackbirds. Understanding how detection probabilities of marsh songbirds vary throughout the breeding season allows targeted survey efforts that maximize detection probabilities for these species. Furthermore, consistent detection probabilities of marsh songbirds during morning and evening survey periods mean that investigators have more time to conduct surveys for these birds, allowing greater flexibility to increase spatial and temporal replication of surveys that could provide more precise estimates of desired population parameters.  相似文献   

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