Succession of pelagic copepod species in coastal waters off northern Chile: the influence of the 1997–98 El Niño

A 2-year time series (17-d interval) of zooplankton, sampled from June 1996 through January 1998, along with oceanographic data, allowed the study of species abundances and diversity during non-El Niño and El Niño conditions at Mejillones (23° S), northern Chile. A total of 28 species was identified, of which the most abundant were the calanoids Paracalanus parvus, Calanus chilensis, Acartia tonsa, and Centropages brachiatus, the cyclopoid Oithona similis, and the poecilostomatoids Oncaea conifera and Corycaeus typicus. El Niño Southern Oscillation (El Niño) was first detected in the area in May 1997 and persisted until March 1998. We divided the time series into two parts: non-El Niño and El Niño conditions. The number of species significantly increased during El Niño conditions, but total abundance of copepods was greater during non-El Niño conditions. Although some expatriate species appeared during El Niño, such as the harpacticoid Microsetella norvegica and Eucalanus subtenuis, the diversity index of Hulburt was not significantly different between the two periods. Despite the dramatic alteration of oceanographic conditions during the El Niño period, we concluded that the community of pelagic copepods was not subject to drastic changes either in total abundance or in structure.     

A possible relationship between outbreaks of the oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen) in China and the El Niño episodes

We investigated the statistical relationship between outbreaks of the oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen) in the Huang Ho and Huai Ho regions of China and El Niño episodes during 1905–1959, and discussed how El Niño affects locust outbreaks. The outbreaks of the locust mostly occurred 1–2 years after the El Niño episodes. El Niño was suggested to affect the locust outbreaks by changing the precipitation and air temperature in Northern China.     

Estimating scale-dependency in disturbance impacts: El Niños and giant kelp forests in the northeast Pacific

Recent discussions on scaling issues in ecology have emphasized that processes acting at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales influence ecosystems and thus there is no appropriate single scale at which ecological processes should be studied. This may be particularly true for environmental disturbances (e.g. El Niño) that occur over large geographic areas and encompass a wide range of scales relevant to ecosystem function. However, it may be possible to identify the scale(s) at which ecosystems are most strongly impacted by disturbances, and thus provide a measure by which their impacts can be most clearly described, by assessing scale-dependent changes in the patterns of variability in species abundance and distribution. This, in turn, may yield significant insight into the relative importance of the various forcing factors responsible for generating these impacts. The 1997–98 El Niño was one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded. I examined how this event impacted giant kelp populations in the northeast Pacific Ocean at 90 sites ranging from central Baja California, Mexico to central California, USA. These sites spanned the geographic range of giant kelp in the Northeast Pacific and were surveyed just before, immediately following, several months after, more than 1 year after, and nearly 2 years after the El Niño. I used a hierarchical sample design to compare these impacts at five spatial scales spanning six orders of magnitude, from a few meters to more than 1,000 km. Variance Components Analyses revealed that the El Niño shifted control over giant kelp abundance from factors acting at the scale of a few meters (local control) to factors operating over hundreds to thousands of kilometers (regional control). Moreover, El Niño resulted in the near-complete loss of all giant kelp throughout one-half of the species range in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Giant kelp recovery following El Niño was far more complex and variable at multiple spatial scales, presumably driven by numerous factors acting at those scales. Recovery returned local control of giant kelp populations within 6 months in southern California, and within 2 years in Baja California.     

Positive effects of “El Niño” on macrozoobenthos inhabiting hypoxic areas of the Peruvian upwelling system

Summary Soft-bottom macrozoobenthos was sampled at monthly intervals between September 1981 and September 1984 at a normally hypoxic site (34 m depth) in Ancón Bay (Peru). Temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen were measured and related to changes in community structure. Large increases in the number of species, density, biomass, and diversity of macrozoobenthos were observed during the 1982–1983 El Niño (EN) thermal anomaly and for 1 year afterwards. These favourable changes were mainly associated with increased oxygen concentrations found in water masses near the bottom. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that the processes of post-catastrophic recovery of macrozoobenthos on marine soft bottoms are largely predictable, although certain particular mechanisms seem to exist for post-hypoxic recovery during El Niño in areas of the Peruvian coastal upwelling.Contribution No. 55 of the Peruvian-German Cooperative Fisheries Project (PROCOPA-Callao) and No. 63 of the Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI-Bremerhaven)     

Weather changes associated with hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases and stroke in California, 1983–1998

Poisson regression models were used to evaluate associations between temperature, precipitation, days of extreme heat, and other weather changes (lagged 7 days), as well as El Niño events, with hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, congestive heart failure, and stroke in three California regions. Temperature changes were defined as a 3 °C decrease in maximum temperature or a 3 °C increase in minimum temperature. Temperature and precipitation were analyzed separately for normal weather periods and El Niño events, and for both weather periods combined. Associations varied by region, age, and gender. In Los Angeles, temperature changes resulted in small changes in hospitalizations. Among San Francisco residents 70+ years of age, temperature changes increased hospitalizations for nearly all outcomes from 6% to 13%. Associations among Sacramento residents were similar to those in San Francisco: among men 70+ years of age, temperature changes increased hospitalizations by 6%–11% for acute myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure, and 10%–18% for stroke. El Niño events were consistently and significantly associated with hospitalizations only in San Francisco and Sacramento, and then only for angina pectoris (increasing hospitalizations during El Niño events). These exploratory analyses merit further confirmation to improve our understanding of how admissions to hospitals for cardiovascular disease and stroke change with changing weather. Such an understanding is useful for developing current public health responses, for evaluating population vulnerability, and for designing future adaptation measures.     

The Relationship between Red Cod, Pseudophycis Bachus, Recruitment and Environmental Variables in New Zealand

This paper examines the relationship between red cod, Pseudophycis bachus, recruitment and selected environmental variables. Commercial catch data of red cod were used as indices of relative recruitment strength for New Zealand fish stocks (east coast South Island, RCO 3; west coast South Island, RCO 7). Analysis of catch per unit effort (CPUE) supports the assumption that fluctuations in commercial catches reflect changes in abundance resulting from variable recruitment. Catch was assessed against 34 environmental variables that included the Southern Oscillation index, sea surface temperature, weather types, wind speed and direction, and river flows. Lagged correlations were calculated between annual commercial catch and averaged environmental data. Variables most strongly correlated with commercial catch were included in regression analyses. Regression models were calculated using all available data in its raw form, and after application of a logarithmic transformation. Robustness, and forecast skill was tested using a repeated leave-one-out procedure. The strongest correlations between commercial catch and explanatory variables for both RCO 3 and RCO 7 were consistently with sea surface temperature over a wide range of time lags followed by frequencies of southwest and northeast flow patterns. The correlations generally operated in the sense that colder is better: negative correlations (–0.75) with sea surface temperature, positive with the occurrence of cool southwest weather types, negative with the occurrence of warm northeast weather types. The maximum magnitude of the correlation occurs at 14-month lag for both fisheries, corresponding to the late spring/summer of the year prior to the catch year. There were often secondary maxima in the magnitude of the correlations two or three years prior to the catch year. The commercial fishery is made up largely of two and three-year-old fish, implying that juvenile fish (age one year) are most sensitive to environmental conditions, but egg, embryo and larva periods may also be affected. Regression analyses suggest that two-predictor regressions were unstable, with often large decreases in explained variance when applied to the independent years, however, at the lags when relationships are strongest (around 14 months), the explained variance on the left-out years remains high. Fluctuations in red cod landings are dependent on sea surface temperature, controlled largely by climatic variability, including El Niño and La Niña events. For short-lived species such as red cod, fluctuations in annual landings are commonplace and analyses of environmental data may be useful in predicting catches in subsequent years.     

A comparison of genetic diversity between the Galápagos Penguin and the Magellanic Penguin

The Galápagos Penguin (Spheniscusmendiculus) is a United States federallylisted endangered species with populations onthe Galápagos Islands of Fernandina andIsabela. Although the waters around theislands are normally productive, lowproductivity during El Niño years resultsin high adult penguin mortality and lowrecruitment in following years. We usedmicrosatellite markers developed for Spheniscus penguins to study the long termgenetic effects of serial bottleneck events inthe Galápagos Penguin, and compared thisvariation to that of its congener, theMagellanic penguin (Spheniscusmagellanicus). The observed heterozygosityfor the Galápagos Penguin was 3%,significantly lower than the 46%heterozygosity of the Magellanic Penguin. Thislow level of heterozygosity is directly relatedto its low effective population size. Whilethis population has survived long term,presumably without high levels of geneticvariation, we feel that the greater frequencyof El Niño events, coupled with increasedhuman impacts such as introduced disease, oildischarge, and competition with fisheries, mayput the species in particular danger ofextinction.     

Contrasting demographies and persistence of rare annual plants in highly variable environments

Spatial and temporal variation in critical life history traits differ markedly between two co-occurring, rare and endangered annual plants, Gilia tenuiflora arenaria and Chorizanthe pungens pungens, that have restricted, but overlapping geographic distributions in coastal habitats of central California, USA. Environmental variation was extreme during the 6-year study (1997–2002), with the greatest differences between an intense wet, warm El Niño year (1998), followed by a very dry, cool La Niña (1999). Both species have similar increases in adult survival and seed set with wetter, warmer weather in spring, but they differed in other traits: more Gilia germinated in years with high rainfall and temperature, while more Chorizanthe germinated in dry, cooler years; Gilia abundance increased with the number of years since the previous large El Niño event, while Chorizanthe abundance declined; and Gilia abundance was independent of the previous year’s seed set, while Chorizanthe density was directly related to the previous year’s seed set. The strong negative associations of Chorizanthe abundance with warm, wet weather and with time since the previous El Niño probably reflect the particular sequence of annual weather patterns from 1997 through 2002, especially the extremes in 1998 and 1999. Since it germinates readily in most years under a wide range of winter conditions and does not develop a long-lived seed bank, Chorizanthe seedling abundance reflects recent additions and depletions of its seed bank, rather than prevailing weather, per se. In contrast, Gilia seeds may remain in the seed bank for many years, until relatively rare winter conditions trigger significant germination. These species-specific demographies enhance persistence and coexistence of these species, but the mechanisms differ from each other and from those described for annuals in other highly variable environments.     

Inter-hemispheric comparison of fire history: The Colorado Front Range,U.S.A., and the Northern Patagonian Andes,Argentina

Fire history was compared between the Colorado Front Range (U.S.A.) and northern Patagonia (Argentina) by dating fire-scars on 525 Pinus ponderosa and 418 Austrocedrus chilensis, respectively, and determining fire weather on the basis of instrumental and tree-ring proxy records of climatic variation. Years of above average moisture availability preceding fire years, rather than drought alone, is conducive to years of widespread fire in the Colorado Front Range and the northern Patagonian study areas. Above-average precipitation promotes fire by enhancing the growth of herbaceous plants which increases the quantity of fine fuels during the fire season a few years later. The short-term variability in moisture availability that is conducive to widespread burning is strongly related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. The warm (El Niño) phase of ENSO is associated with greater moisture availability during the spring in both regions which leads to peaks in fire occurrence several years after El Niño events. The warmer and drier springs associated with la Niña events exacerbate the drying of fuels so that fire years commonly coincide with La Niña events. In both regions, there was a dramatic decline in fire occurrence after the early 1900s due to a decline in intentionally set fires by Native Americans and European settlers, fuel reduction by livestock grazing, and increasingly effective organized fire suppression activities after the 1920s. In both regions there was a marked increase in fire frequency during the mid-and late-19th centuries which coincides with increased ignitions by Native Americans and/or European settlers. However, year-to-year variability in ring widths of Pinus ponderosa and Austrocedrus chilensis also increased from relatively low values in the late 1700s and early 1800s to peaks in the 1850s and 1860s. This implies frequent alternation of years of above and below average moisture availability during the mid-19th century when the frequencies of major fire years rise. The high correlation of tree-growth variability betweem the two regions implies a strong inter-hemispheric variation in climatic variability at a centennial time scale which closely parallels a variety of proxy records of ENSO activity. Based on the relationship of fire and ENSO events documented in the current study, this long-term trend in ENSO activity probably contributed to the mid- and late-19th century increase in fire spread in both regions. These similar trends in fire occurrence have contributed to similar patterns of forest structures, forest health, and current hazard of catastrophic wildfire in the Colorado Front Range and northern Patagonia.     

Climate variation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on the Great Barrier Reef: 1958 to 1987

Seasonal and inter-annual variation of several surface climate variables near the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are described for the 30-year period, 1958–1987. Large inter-annual variability of rainfall and river flow in coastal Queensland is linked to the aperiodic influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. These events also affect sea surface temperature and wind fields, though the inter-annual variability of these variables is not as large as rainfall and river flow. The major impacts on waters of the GBR appear to be greatly increased freshwater inputs, reduced surface radiation (and thus light levels) and enhanced tropical cyclone activity during anti-El Niño events. El Niño events have less effect on climate of the GBR because they tend to maintain winter-like conditions. The effects of this background of high variability in the physical environment on reef processes must be considered when examining changes in such processes, changes in climate (e.g. due to global warming) or increases in anthropogenic impacts.     

Microplanktonic respiration off northern Chile during El Nino 1997-1998

Microplanktonic respiration rates were estimated in waters offthe coast of northern Chile (Antofagasta, 23°S) during ElNiño and pre-El Niño conditions. Three cruiseswere conducted during pre-El Niño summer (January/February1997), El Niño winter (July 1997) and El Niñosummer (January 1998). Oxygen consumption was estimated by theWinkler method using a semi-automatic photometric end-pointdetector. The ranges of microplanktonic respiration rates foundwere 0.11–21.15, 0.03–6.25 and 0.06–9.01 µmolO₂ l^–1 day^–1 during pre-El Niño summer, ElNiño winter and El Niño summer, respectively.Significant differences were found between winter and summerrespiration rates (non-integrated and integrated). The meanintegrated respiration (mixed layer) for pre-El Niñosummer, El Niño winter and El Niño summer was95 ± 51 (SD) mmol O₂ m^–2 day^–1, 50 ±23 (SD) mmol O₂ m^–2 day^–1 and 63 ± 32 (SD)mmol O₂ m^–2 day^–1, respectively. The strong seasonalsignal detected in microplanktonic integrated respiration inthe area seems to be characteristic of the pre-El Niño/ElNiño 1997–98 period. The integrated respirationrates found off Antofagasta are similar to reported values forthe upwelling area off Peru despite methodological differences.A positive significant correlation was found between respirationand water temperature (r = 0.76, P     

Mortalities of kelp-forest fishes associated with large oceanic waves off central California, 1982–1983

Synopsis Observations of three incidents of the mass mortality of nearshore fishes are reported; each corresponded to periods of high-amplitude, long-period swells during the 1982–1983 El Niño event along the coast of central California. Members of the nearshore kelp forest fish assemblage, primarily of the genusSebastes, accounted for 96% of the observed mortalities andS. mystinus (blue rockfish) alone accounted for 72%.     

Holocene sand beaches of southern California: ENSO forcing and coastal processes on millennial scales

A proxy record of sand beach accretion for the past 10,000 years has been assembled from radiocarbon dates on the Pismo clam, Tivela stultorum, in archaeological sites along the southern California coast. When this record is compared with numerous climate proxies, it appears that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) controls on wave climate and sediment flux have acted upon regional geomorphology at different sea levels to either accrete or erode the Holocene beaches of southern California. Tivela dates from the Santa Maria coast indicate that perennial sand beaches built by 9000 years ago in response to abundant riverine sediment contained by the natural groin at Point Sal, wave sheltering by the massive headland of Point Buchon, and Early Holocene El Niño events. On the western Santa Barbara coast, sand beaches were forming by 7000 years ago in response to high sand fluxes from the Santa Ynez Mountains to the many small littoral catchments, possibly aided by high local rates of uplift. Decline of these sand beach habitats 5000-4000 years ago coincides with increased El Niño-driven wave energy. In accord with slowing in sea-level rise ca. 6000 years ago, sand beaches were most widespread in the period 6000-5000 years ago on Estero Bay, the western Santa Barbara coast, and west of Point Dume. However, Tivela dates first appear 5000 years ago in the Oceanside and Silver Strand littoral cells of the San Diego region. This lag coincides with the Middle Holocene shift to a more variable climate and modern periodicity in El Niño events that increased sediment supply to the southern coast. The ontogeny of the littoral cells provides timelines for modeling coastal evolution with implications for sand beach ecology, prehistoric human coastal adaptations, and coastal planning for future climate change.     

Influence of temperature on the zoeal development and elemental composition of the cancrid crab, Cancer setosus Molina, 1782 from Pacific South America

Temperature changes during ENSO cause mass mortalities of adult Cancer setosus, but the effects on early life stages are unknown. The influence of temperature on survival, development and biochemical composition was studied in larvae of the hairy crab, C. setosus, from a population off the northern Chilean coast. In rearing experiments conducted at four different temperatures (12, 16, 20, 22 °C), zoeal development was only completed at 16 and 20 °C, after 78 and 36 days, respectively. Instar duration was negatively correlated with temperature. A multiple linear model relating larval body mass (in carbon) to temperature and developmental time suggests that successful larval development is possible within a narrow temperature range only. The biochemical composition, measured as carbon, hydrogen, and nitrogen (C, H, N) content, show in general the typical oscillating changes during the moult cycle of brachyuran crab larvae. However, at high (22 °C) and low (16 °C) temperatures, CHN values show deviations from the typical pattern, indicating threshold temperatures for larval activity and survival. These findings indicate that the larval development of C. setosus is compromised under conditions of El Niño, with temperatures exceeding the upper thermal temperature tolerance threshold of larvae. Effects of El Niño on early life history stages and recruitment rates should be increasingly taken into account in fisheries management strategies.     

Spatial distribution of small pelagic fish larvae in the Gulf of California and its relation to the El Nino 1997-1998

Sardinops caeruleus larvae were almost absent during the ElNiño 1997–1998, when the sea surface temperature(SST) increased by 4°C. After the event, these larvae appearedin high abundance between 18 and 22°C SST. Engraulis mordaxlarvae were recorded in high abundance during the El Niño(17 and 25°C SST) and afterwards (14 and 22°C). Duringthe event, they tended to concentrate close to Isla Angel deLa Guarda and Isla Tiburón, the coldest zone. The ElNiño conditions affected the spawning of S.caeruleusmore than E.mordax, with the latter more adapted to strong environmentalchanges.     

Demographic studies of three indigenous stand-forming plant taxa (Scalesia, Opuntia, and Bursera) in the Galápagos Islands, Ecuador

Mortality and turnover of some of the most characteristic woody plants of Galápagos have been studied during 25 to 32 years on the islands of Santa Cruz, Santa Fe and Pinta. Scalesia pedunculata, S. helleri subsp. helleri and S. baurii subsp. hopkinsii display comparable patterns of high mortality, rapid turnover and relatively short life expectancy, but occur in different habitats and islands in the archipelago. In contrast, Opuntia echios var. gigantea, O. echios var. barringtonensis, O. galapageia var. galapageia, and Bursera graveolens display low mortality (especially of adults), slow turnover and long life expectancies, and occur in similar habitats on different islands. Conditions that favour one taxon may at the same time negatively affect another taxon, and adults, juveniles and seedlings within the taxa may react differently to the same environmental factors. In the humid zone species S. pedunculata, diebacks may be triggered by strong El Niño events, and mass seedling events are associated with El Niños and a subsequent year of drought. In the other taxa investigated, which are arid zone species, the response to strong El Niño events is less pronounced and, in some respects, also different. The differences in mortality, turnover and life expectancy of the species of Scalesia on the one hand and the Opuntia taxa and Bursera on the other, suggest that both humid and arid vegetation types containing species of Scalesia should get higher conservation priority than arid vegetation types without species of Scalesia.     

The impact of El Niño events on populations of mesopelagic hydromedusae

For over 10 years, the midwater ecology group at MBARI has compiled video and accompanying physical data with the ROV Ventana operating in mesopelagic depths of Monterey Bay, CA in order to elucidate patterns in midwater ecology. Two El Niño events have occurred during this time period, in 1991–92 and in 1997–98. The oceanographic metric of spiciness combines temperature and salinity data into one sensitive measurement. Although temperature and salinity measurements alone revealed no clear patterns, clear signals of spiciness were observed that corresponded to water mass intrusions into the deep waters of the bay during the two El Niño events. During these events, some seldom-seen species were observed in high numbers in the midwater, while historically common species became rare. During non-El Niño years, the leptomedusa Mitrocoma cellularia(A. Agassiz, 1865) was common in the surface waters (0–50 m) of Monterey Bay, but it was not abundant at depth, while the trachymedusa Colobonema sericeum Vanhöffen, 1902 was found in relatively high numbers at mesopelagic depths. During the last two El Niño events, M. cellulariawas observed in higher numbers at mesopelagic depths, whereas C. sericeum was scarce. M. cellularia was found in a wider range of temperatures, salinities, and dissolved oxygen values than was C. sericeum. Transport and tolerance hypotheses are proposed to explain differences in the presence and numerical density of the medusae.     

Influence of climate and community composition on the population demography of pasture species in semi-arid Australia

Substantial recruitment of Callitris glaucophylla in woodland, Sclerolaena birchii in cleared woodland, and Astrebla lappacea in grassland is related to catastrophic events of the past century in the form of interactions between climate, the impact of European land use (sheep, cattle, rabbits) and the rabbit myxoma epizootic. The direct effect of rainfall on the demography of these species and its indirect effect through competition via suites of accompanying plant species are examined. Major long-term changes in plant populations are generated by extreme sequential events rather than by random isolated events. One of the most potent climatic agents for change in eastern Australia is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon.     

Climatic signals in tree rings of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Burkea africana</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pterocarpus angolensis</Emphasis> from semiarid forests in Namibia

Tree-ring studies contribute worldwide to the understanding of climate and its relation to tree growth. Long tree-ring chronologies serve as climate proxies for the reconstruction of past, pre-instrument climate and its recent change. In tropical regions, the availability of exactly dated tree-ring chronologies is limited. The dendroclimatic potential of two dominant species from dry forests in northern Namibia was examined in the study presented in this paper. Both species (Burkea africana Hook and Pterocarpus angolensis DC) were sampled at two sites (ca. 900 km apart), and the response to several climatic variables, including ENSO indices, is studied. All specimens showed distinct growth rings and cross-dating between radii was successful for all trees. Species-specific mean curves were built for both sites. The mean curves of different species of the same site synchronised significantly, allowing the construction of a site-specific chronology. Synchronisation between sites was not possible, but spectral analysis of the chronologies implied that both show similar long-term (6.7 year) oscillation patterns. B. africana is more sensitive to rainfall variation than P. angolensis at both sites. Growth response to rainfall was positive, but a time-lag in the reaction occurred between the sites, corresponding to the time-lag of the beginning of the rainy season. Air temperature showed a negative correlation with stem increment at both sites. The response at the westernmost site to two ENSO indices indicates a tree growth decrease during El Niño years, which are generally dry in southern Africa.     

Growth under uncertainty: The influence of marine variability on early development of Galapagos sea lions

Development implies a change in allocation of resources from somatic growth to reproduction. In a highly variable environment, growth can vary from year to year thereby influencing the long‐term life history perspective. The Galapagos sea lion (Zalophus wollebaeki) lives in a highly unpredictable marine environment in which food abundance varies not only seasonally, but also annually due to El Niño. Galapagos sea lions are restricted to a patch of cold upwelling waters surrounding the archipelago and are closely tied to land as nursing females alternate between foraging at sea and nursing ashore. Therefore, their offspring are especially vulnerable to ocean warming causing reduced food abundance. We found a significant correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and early growth: Both mass at birth and linear growth within the first 2 mo of life correlated negatively with SST. Absolute mass gain was higher for males, but both sexes gained equally 1.9% of birth mass per day. Until the age of 3 yr male and female juveniles showed similar growth to an asymptotic mass of 40 and 35 kg, respectively. As a consequence of the highly variable environment, the plasticity in growth strategy of Galapagos sea lion juveniles appears wider than that of all other sea lions allowing them to cope with poor conditions.