Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006–2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.     

Feed-forward neural networks for secondary structure prediction

A feed-forward neural network has been employed for protein secondary structure prediction. Attempts were made to improve on previous prediction accuracies using a hierarchical mixture of experts (HME). In this method input data are clustered and used to train a series of different networks. Application of an HME to the prediction of protein secondary structure is shown to provide no advantages over a single network. We have also tried various new input representations, chosen to incorporate the effect of residues a long distance away in the one-dimensional amino acid chain. Prediction accuracy using these methods is comparable to that achieved by other neural networks.^1–4     

基于BP神经网络和RBF神经网络预测老年痴呆症疾病进展的对比研究

目的:比较反向传播算法(BP)神经网络和径向基函数(RBF)神经网络预测老年痴呆症疾病进展的效果。方法:以老年痴呆症随访数据为研究对象,以性别、年龄、受教育程度、有无高血压、有无高胆固醇、有无心脏病、有无中风史、有无家族史8个指标作为输入变量,以五年随访的MMSE差值为输出变量,构建基于BP神经网络和RBF神经网络的老年痴呆症疾病进展预测模型。结果:与BP神经网络模型相比,RBF神经网络预测的结果更好,能够有效地预测老年痴呆症疾病进展。结论:神经网络模型将老年痴呆症疾病进展预测问题转化为随访数据中相关测量指标与MMSE差值的非线性问题,为复杂的老年痴呆症疾病进展预测提供了新思路。     

Modelling and prediction for chaotic fir laser attractor using rational function neural network

Many real-world systems such as irregular ECG signal, volatility of currency exchange rate and heated fluid reaction exhibit highly complex nonlinear characteristic known as chaos. These chaotic systems cannot be retreated satisfactorily using linear system theory due to its high dimensionality and irregularity. This research focuses on prediction and modelling of chaotic FIR (Far InfraRed) laser system for which the underlying equations are not given. This paper proposed a method for prediction and modelling a chaotic FIR laser time series using rational function neural network. Three network architectures, TDNN (Time Delayed Neural Network), RBF (radial basis function) network and the RF (rational function) network, are also presented. Comparisons between these networks performance show the improvements introduced by the RF network in terms of a decrement in network complexity and better ability of predictability.     

Optimization of auto-induction medium for G-CSF production by Escherichia coli using artificial neural networks coupled with genetic algorithm

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) is a cytokine widely used in cancer patients receiving high doses of chemotherapeutic drugs to prevent the chemotherapy-induced suppression of white blood cells. The production of recombinant G-CSF should be increased to meet the increasing market demand. This study aims to model and optimize the carbon source of auto-induction medium to enhance G-CSF production using artificial neural networks coupled with genetic algorithm. In this approach, artificial neural networks served as bioprocess modeling tools, and genetic algorithm (GA) was applied to optimize the established artificial neural network models. Two artificial neural network models were constructed: the back-propagation (BP) network and the radial basis function (RBF) network. The root mean square error, coefficient of determination, and standard error of prediction of the BP model were 0.0375, 0.959, and 8.49 %, respectively, whereas those of the RBF model were 0.0257, 0.980, and 5.82 %, respectively. These values indicated that the RBF model possessed higher fitness and prediction accuracy than the BP model. Under the optimized auto-induction medium, the predicted maximum G-CSF yield by the BP-GA approach was 71.66 %, whereas that by the RBF-GA approach was 75.17 %. These predicted values are in agreement with the experimental results, with 72.4 and 76.014 % for the BP-GA and RBF-GA models, respectively. These results suggest that RBF-GA is superior to BP-GA. The developed approach in this study may be helpful in modeling and optimizing other multivariable, non-linear, and time-variant bioprocesses.     

一种自优化RBF神经网络的叶绿素a浓度时序预测模型

藻类水华发生过程具有复杂性、非线性、时变性等特点,其准确预测一直是一个国际性难题.以天津市于桥水库为研究对象,根据2000年1月至2003年12月常规监测的水生生态数据(采样周期为10 d),提出了一种结合时序方法的可自优化RBF神经网络智能预测模型,对判断藻类水华的重要指标叶绿素a浓度进行预测.研究了训练样本量及RBF神经网络扩展速度SPREAD值的可自优化性能,以及该模型用于于桥水库叶绿素a浓度的短期变化趋势预测的可行性.结果表明,预测性能指标随SPREAD值及样本量不同发生变化,该预测模型能自动寻到最优SPREAD值,并发现至少需要约两年的训练样本量才能达到较好预测效果.当样本量为105,SPREAD值为10时,预测效果最好,精度较高,预测值与实测值的相关系数R达到0.982.该方法对水库的藻类水华预警有一定的参考价值.     

Neural network optimization for E. coli promoter prediction.

Methods for optimizing the prediction of Escherichia coli RNA polymerase promoter sequences by neural networks are presented. A neural network was trained on a set of 80 known promoter sequences combined with different numbers of random sequences. The conserved -10 region and -35 region of the promoter sequences and a combination of these regions were used in three independent training sets. The prediction accuracy of the resulting weight matrix was tested against a separate set of 30 known promoter sequences and 1500 random sequences. The effects of the network's topology, the extent of training, the number of random sequences in the training set and the effects of different data representations were examined and optimized. Accuracies of 100% on the promoter test set and 98.4% on the random test set were achieved with the optimal parameters.     

Prediction of continuous B-cell epitopes in an antigen using recurrent neural network

B-cell epitopes play a vital role in the development of peptide vaccines, in diagnosis of diseases, and also for allergy research. Experimental methods used for characterizing epitopes are time consuming and demand large resources. The availability of epitope prediction method(s) can rapidly aid experimenters in simplifying this problem. The standard feed-forward (FNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) have been used in this study for predicting B-cell epitopes in an antigenic sequence. The networks have been trained and tested on a clean data set, which consists of 700 non-redundant B-cell epitopes obtained from Bcipep database and equal number of non-epitopes obtained randomly from Swiss-Prot database. The networks have been trained and tested at different input window length and hidden units. Maximum accuracy has been obtained using recurrent neural network (Jordan network) with a single hidden layer of 35 hidden units for window length of 16. The final network yields an overall prediction accuracy of 65.93% when tested by fivefold cross-validation. The corresponding sensitivity, specificity, and positive prediction values are 67.14, 64.71, and 65.61%, respectively. It has been observed that RNN (JE) was more successful than FNN in the prediction of B-cell epitopes. The length of the peptide is also important in the prediction of B-cell epitopes from antigenic sequences. The webserver ABCpred is freely available at www.imtech.res.in/raghava/abcpred/.     

Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks for predicting the subcellular localization of eukaryotic proteins

An algorithm called bidirectional long short-term memory networks (BLSTM) for processing sequential data is introduced. This supervised learning method trains a special recurrent neural network to use very long-range symmetric sequence context using a combination of nonlinear processing elements and linear feedback loops for storing long-range context. The algorithm is applied to the sequence-based prediction of protein localization and predicts 93.3 percent novel nonplant proteins and 88.4 percent novel plant proteins correctly, which is an improvement over feedforward and standard recurrent networks solving the same problem. The BLSTM system is available as a Web service at http://stepc.stepc.gr/-synaptic/blstm.html.     

基于 RBF 神经网络的蛋白质二级结构预测

蛋白质二级结构对于研究其功能具有重要作用。采用主成分分析方法对氨基酸的基本物化属性及其二级结构倾向性进行降维降噪处理,使用径向基神经网络对蛋白质二级结构进行预测。主成分分析使得之前 20 ×12 矩阵变为 20 ×4 矩阵,极大地减少了神经网络输入端的维数。在仿真过程中,当窗口大小为 21,扩展函数为 7 时,预测精确度达到了 71. 81%。实验结果表明 RBF 神经网络可以有效的用于蛋白质二级结构的预测。     

EEG source localization: comparative study of classical and neural network methods.

We address the problem of estimating biopotential sources within the brain, based on EEG signals observed on the scalp. This problem, known as the inverse problem of electrophysiology, has no closed-form solution, and requires iterative techniques such as the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm. Considering the nonlinear nature of the inverse problem, and the low signal to noise ratio inherent in EEG signals, a backpropagation neural network (BPN) has been recently proposed as a solution. The technique has not been properly compared with classical techniques such as the LM method, or with more recent neural network techniques such as the Radial Basis Function (RBF) network. In this paper, we provide improved strategies based on BPN and consider RBF networks in solving the inverse problem. We compare the performances of BPN, RBF and a hybrid technique with that of the classical LM method.     

Evolutionary optimization of RBF networks

One of the main obstacles to the widespread use of artificial neural networks is the difficulty of adequately defining values for their free parameters. This article discusses how Radial Basis Function (RBF) networks can have their parameters defined by genetic algorithms. For such, it presents an overall view of the problems involved and the different approaches used to genetically optimize RBF networks. A new strategy to optimize RBF networks using genetic algorithms is proposed, which includes new representation, crossover operator and the use of a multiobjective optimization criterion. Experiments using a benchmark problem are performed and the results achieved using this model are compared to those achieved by other approaches.     

Extensive feature detection of N-terminal protein sorting signals

MOTIVATION: The prediction of localization sites of various proteins is an important and challenging problem in the field of molecular biology. TargetP, by Emanuelsson et al. (J. Mol. Biol., 300, 1005-1016, 2000) is a neural network based system which is currently the best predictor in the literature for N-terminal sorting signals. One drawback of neural networks, however, is that it is generally difficult to understand and interpret how and why they make such predictions. In this paper, we aim to generate simple and interpretable rules as predictors, and still achieve a practical prediction accuracy. We adopt an approach which consists of an extensive search for simple rules and various attributes which is partially guided by human intuition. RESULTS: We have succeeded in finding rules whose prediction accuracies come close to that of TargetP, while still retaining a very simple and interpretable form. We also discuss and interpret the discovered rules.     

Discovering Study-Specific Gene Regulatory Networks

Microarrays are commonly used in biology because of their ability to simultaneously measure thousands of genes under different conditions. Due to their structure, typically containing a high amount of variables but far fewer samples, scalable network analysis techniques are often employed. In particular, consensus approaches have been recently used that combine multiple microarray studies in order to find networks that are more robust. The purpose of this paper, however, is to combine multiple microarray studies to automatically identify subnetworks that are distinctive to specific experimental conditions rather than common to them all. To better understand key regulatory mechanisms and how they change under different conditions, we derive unique networks from multiple independent networks built using glasso which goes beyond standard correlations. This involves calculating cluster prediction accuracies to detect the most predictive genes for a specific set of conditions. We differentiate between accuracies calculated using cross-validation within a selected cluster of studies (the intra prediction accuracy) and those calculated on a set of independent studies belonging to different study clusters (inter prediction accuracy). Finally, we compare our method''s results to related state-of-the art techniques. We explore how the proposed pipeline performs on both synthetic data and real data (wheat and Fusarium). Our results show that subnetworks can be identified reliably that are specific to subsets of studies and that these networks reflect key mechanisms that are fundamental to the experimental conditions in each of those subsets.     

Prediction of Cascading Failures in Spatial Networks

Cascading overload failures are widely found in large-scale parallel systems and remain a major threat to system reliability; therefore, they are of great concern to maintainers and managers of different systems. Accurate cascading failure prediction can provide useful information to help control networks. However, for a large, gradually growing network with increasing complexity, it is often impractical to explore the behavior of a single node from the perspective of failure propagation. Fortunately, overload failures that propagate through a network exhibit certain spatial-temporal correlations, which allows the study of a group of nodes that share common spatial and temporal characteristics. Therefore, in this study, we seek to predict the failure rates of nodes in a given group using machine-learning methods.We simulated overload failure propagations in a weighted lattice network that start with a center attack and predicted the failure percentages of different groups of nodes that are separated by a given distance. The experimental results of a feedforward neural network (FNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and support vector regression (SVR) all show that these different models can accurately predict the similar behavior of nodes in a given group during cascading overload propagation.     

Identification of phytoplankton from flow cytometry data by using radial basis function neural networks.

We describe here the application of a type of artificial neural network, the Gaussian radial basis function (RBF) network, in the identification of a large number of phytoplankton strains from their 11-dimensional flow cytometric characteristics measured by the European Optical Plankton Analyser instrument. The effect of network parameters on optimization is examined. Optimized RBF networks recognized 34 species of marine and freshwater phytoplankton with 91. 5% success overall. The relative importance of each measured parameter in discriminating these data and the behavior of RBF networks in response to data from "novel" species (species not present in the training data) were analyzed.     

Variable selection in nonlinear modeling based on RBF networks and evolutionary computation

In this paper a novel variable selection method based on Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks and genetic algorithms is presented. The fuzzy means algorithm is utilized as the training method for the RBF networks, due to its inherent speed, the deterministic approach of selecting the hidden node centers and the fact that it involves only a single tuning parameter. The trade-off between the accuracy and parsimony of the produced model is handled by using Final Prediction Error criterion, based on the RBF training and validation errors, as a fitness function of the proposed genetic algorithm. The tuning parameter required by the fuzzy means algorithm is treated as a free variable by the genetic algorithm. The proposed method was tested in benchmark data sets stemming from the scientific communities of time-series prediction and medicinal chemistry and produced promising results.     

Identification of Phytoplankton from Flow Cytometry Data by Using Radial Basis Function Neural Networks

We describe here the application of a type of artificial neural network, the Gaussian radial basis function (RBF) network, in the identification of a large number of phytoplankton strains from their 11-dimensional flow cytometric characteristics measured by the European Optical Plankton Analyser instrument. The effect of network parameters on optimization is examined. Optimized RBF networks recognized 34 species of marine and freshwater phytoplankton with 91.5% success overall. The relative importance of each measured parameter in discriminating these data and the behavior of RBF networks in response to data from “novel” species (species not present in the training data) were analyzed.     

An Attractor-Based Complexity Measurement for Boolean Recurrent Neural Networks

We provide a novel refined attractor-based complexity measurement for Boolean recurrent neural networks that represents an assessment of their computational power in terms of the significance of their attractor dynamics. This complexity measurement is achieved by first proving a computational equivalence between Boolean recurrent neural networks and some specific class of -automata, and then translating the most refined classification of -automata to the Boolean neural network context. As a result, a hierarchical classification of Boolean neural networks based on their attractive dynamics is obtained, thus providing a novel refined attractor-based complexity measurement for Boolean recurrent neural networks. These results provide new theoretical insights to the computational and dynamical capabilities of neural networks according to their attractive potentialities. An application of our findings is illustrated by the analysis of the dynamics of a simplified model of the basal ganglia-thalamocortical network simulated by a Boolean recurrent neural network. This example shows the significance of measuring network complexity, and how our results bear new founding elements for the understanding of the complexity of real brain circuits.     

Prediction of caspase cleavage sites using Bayesian bio-basis function neural networks

MOTIVATION: Apoptosis has drawn the attention of researchers because of its importance in treating some diseases through finding a proper way to block or slow down the apoptosis process. Having understood that caspase cleavage is the key to apoptosis, we find novel methods or algorithms are essential for studying the specificity of caspase cleavage activity and this helps the effective drug design. As bio-basis function neural networks have proven to outperform some conventional neural learning algorithms, there is a motivation, in this study, to investigate the application of bio-basis function neural networks for the prediction of caspase cleavage sites. RESULTS: Thirteen protein sequences with experimentally determined caspase cleavage sites were downloaded from NCBI. Bayesian bio-basis function neural networks are investigated and the comparisons with single-layer perceptrons, multilayer perceptrons, the original bio-basis function neural networks and support vector machines are given. The impact of the sliding window size used to generate sub-sequences for modelling on prediction accuracy is studied. The results show that the Bayesian bio-basis function neural network with two Gaussian distributions for model parameters (weights) performed the best and the highest prediction accuracy is 97.15 +/- 1.13%. AVAILABILITY: The package of Bayesian bio-basis function neural network can be obtained by request to the author.