Fluctuations in population composition dampen the impact of phenotypic plasticity on trait dynamics in superb fairy-wrens

1. In structured populations, phenotypic change can result from changes throughout an individual's lifetime (phenotypic plasticity, age-related changes), selection and changes in population composition (environment- or density-driven fluctuations in age-structure). 2. The contribution of population dynamics to phenotypic change has often been ignored. However, for understanding trait dynamics, it is important to identify both the individual- and population-level mechanisms responsible for trait change, because they potentially reinforce or counteract each other. 3. We use 22 years of field data to investigate the dynamics of a sexually selected phenological trait, the timing of nuptial moult in superb fairy-wrens Malurus cyaneus. 4. We show that trait expression is both climate- and age-dependent, but that phenotypic plasticity in response to climate variability also varies with age. Old males can acquire nuptial plumage very early after high rainfall, but 1- to 2-year-olds cannot. However, males of all ages that defer moult to later in the year acquire nuptial plumage earlier when conditions are warmer. 5. The underlying mechanism appears to be that old males may risk moulting in the most challenging period of the year: in autumn, when drought restricts food abundance and during the cold winter. By contrast, young males always moult during the spring transition to benign - warmer and generally wetter - conditions. Temperature changes dominate this transition that heralds the breeding season, thereby causing both young and late-moulting older birds to be temperature sensitive. 6. Climate and age also affect trait dynamics via a population dynamical pathway. The same high rainfall that triggers early moulting in old males concurrently increases offspring recruitment and thereby reduces the average age of males in the population. Consequently, effects of rainfall on trait dynamics through phenotypic plasticity of old males are dampened by synchronous rejuvenation of the age-structure. 7. A long-term trend towards drier environments prompted phenotypic change because of plasticity, but this was masked by climate-driven demographic change (causing apparent stasis). This suggests a novel explanation for why trait change may fail to reflect the observed pattern of directional selection or phenotypic plasticity.     

Response of a Mediterranean semiarid community to changing patterns of water supply

Climate change may cause profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Changes in rainfall patterns may have large effects on a wide range of biological processes such as seed germination, seedling establishment, plant growth, community composition, and population and community dynamics. Climate change models for the Mediterranean region forecast reduced annual precipitation and more extreme rain events (i.e., fewer rainy days and longer drought periods between rainfall events), along with seasonal changes. We experimentally addressed the response of a semiarid Mediterranean community to higher aridity and changes in seasonal rainfall patterns in two glasshouse experiments in which we manipulated water supply. We simulated a delay in the onset of autumn rainfalls (i.e., a longer summer drought period), decreased watering amount and frequency as predicted by climate models, and manipulated the seasonality of water supply. We found that delayed watering led to decreases in plant community productivity and to delays in flowering time, in terms of both date and number of days of water supply. Decreased watering amount and frequency, and accentuated seasonality, also diminished biomass and individuals recruited, but did not change flower phenology. Species diversity was not affected by watering delays; however, it was reduced by changes in frequency, amount and seasonality. Overall, these data underline the need to consider rainfall patterns as an important element that might alter community dynamics and ecosystem structure and functioning. Therefore, the analysis of climate change consequences must not depend on climatic means-based scenarios but must take into account expected seasonal changes in rainfall quantity and frequency.     

Forces driving the composition of butterfly assemblages in Andorra

Despite the impact that human presence has on the area, Andorra in the eastern Pyrenees still harbours a rich butterfly fauna and is a potentially excellent area for studying the effects of global change on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to identify and understand the factors that are inducing observed patterns of butterfly richness in Andorra. We used data collected between 2006 and 2010 from six transects of the Andorran Butterfly Monitoring Scheme that lie at heights from 1,000 to 2,400 m a.s.l. These transects are divided into 44 discrete sections and during the study period 18,603 individuals belonging to 126 butterfly species were recorded. The effects of elevation and habitat composition on species richness and abundance were analyzed, as was the presence of spatial structure in the butterfly assemblages. We found a clear tendency for species richness to decrease as elevation increased and also identified a major faunal turnover. Habitat composition seems to have little effect on species richness and butterfly abundance. A spatial structure was observed in the dataset, with a positive spatial autocorrelation at section scale that reflects a clear effect of altitudinal gradient on species assemblages. Finally, a cluster analysis enabled us to define two main faunistic groups, corresponding to lower (generally in closed habitats) and higher sites (generally in subalpine meadows and grasslands). We thus conclude that the elevation gradient is the principal factor driving butterfly distribution and abundance in Andorra.     

Nuptial gift chemistry reveals convergent evolution correlated with antagonism in mating systems of harvestmen (Arachnida,Opiliones)

Nuptial gifts are material donations given from male to female before or during copulation and are subject to sexual selection in a wide variety of taxa. The harvestman genus Leiobunum has emerged as a model system for understanding the evolution of reproductive morphology and behavior, as transitions between solicitous and antagonistic modes of courtship have occurred multiple times within the lineage and are correlated with convergence in genital morphology. We analyzed the free amino acid content of nuptial gift secretions from five species of Leiobunum using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Multivariate analysis of the free amino acid profiles revealed that, rather than clustering based on phylogenetic relationships, nuptial gift chemical composition was better predicted by genital morphology and behavior, suggesting that convergent evolution has acted on the chemical composition of the nuptial gift. In addition, we found that, species with solicitous courtship produce gifts consisting of a 19% larger proportion of essential amino acids as compared to those with more antagonistic courtship interactions. This work represents the first comparative study of nuptial gift chemistry within a phylogenetic framework in any animal group and as such contributes to our understanding of the evolution of reproductive diversity and the participant role of nuptial gift chemistry in mating system transitions.     

Nuptial food gifts influence female egg production in the scorpionfly Panorpa cognata

Abstract.  1. Before copulation, male Panorpa cognata scorpionflies offer females a salivary secretion, which is consumed by the female during copulation. It has previously been demonstrated that this nuptial food gift functions as mating effort by increasing male attractiveness and by increasing ejaculate transfer during copulation.
2. In this study, the effect of saliva consumption on female reproductive output was investigated, and thus the possibility that nuptial food gifts also serve as paternal investment. The experimental design enabled the effect of nuptial gift consumption to be disentangled from other possible effects of multiple mating or increased copula duration.
3. The results showed that saliva consumption increases female egg production by on average 8% (4.5 eggs) per consumed salivary mass, whereas mean egg weight was not influenced.4. These results have important implications for the evolution and maintenance of both male nuptial gifts and female polyandry in this and other species.     

An exploratory model of the impact of rapid climate change on the world food situation

A simple, globally aggregated, stochastic-simulation model was constructed to examine the effects of rapid climatic change on agriculture and the human population. The model calculates population size and the production, consumption and storage of grain under different climate scenarios over a 20-year projection time. In most scenarios, either an optimistic baseline annual increase of agricultural output of 1.7% or a more pessimistic appraisal of 0.9% was used. The rate of natural increase of the human population exclusive of excess hunger-related deaths was set as 1.7% per year and climatic changes with both negative and positive impacts on agriculture were assessed. Analysis of the model suggests that the number of hunger-related deaths could double (with reference to an estimated 200 million deaths in the past two decades) if grain production keeps pace with population growth but climatic conditions are unfavourable. If the rate of increase in grain production is about half that of population growth, the number of hunger-related deaths could increase about fivefold (over past levels); the impact of climatic change is relatively small under this imbalance. Even favourable climatic changes that enhance agricultural production may not prevent a fourfold increase in deaths (over past levels) under scenarios where population growth outpaces production by about 0.8% per annum. These results may foreshadow a fundamental change where, for the first time, absolute global food deficits compound inequities in food production and distribution in causing famine. The model also highlights the effectiveness of reducing population growth rates as a strategy for minimizing the impact of global climate change and maintaining food supplies for everyone.     

Determinants of Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) diet in a seasonally changing reservoir

Otter diet in reservoirs is known to experience seasonal changes. We selected a reservoir with a large population of exclusively wintering great cormorants and seasonal changes in stored water volume to test the relative influence of abiotic and biotic factors on otter foraging ecology. DNA metabarcoding of otter spraints revealed a dietary change from autumn to winter. Otters had a diet dominated by the exotic goldfish in autumn, but predated intensively on the native northern straight-mouth nase in winter. This change was likely caused by predation of cormorants on goldfish and to fish biology. Secondly, macroscopic analysis of spraints revealed that otters shifted from a diet dominated by fish (in terms of biomass) to a diet dominated by red swamp crayfish during spring–summer, when the latter became overabundant. As revealed by modelling, this second shift was most likely influenced by the sudden increase in stored water volume in spring, but also by the cumulative effect of cormorant predation on fish during autumn–winter. Macroscopic analyses of otter spraints collected in a second reservoir with no cormorants revealed a lack of seasonality. Hence, the combined influence of both biotic and abiotic factors explained otter diet seasonality in a lentic-water novel ecosystem.

     

Visualising the environmental preferences of Pinus tecunumanii populations

A network of 92 pedigreed ex situ conservation plantings of Pinus tecunumanii, established as replicated progeny within provenance trials, is used to present a principal components-based analysis that illustrates the climatic preferences of 23 populations from the species’ native range. This meta-analysis quantifies changes in the relative productivity, assessed as individual-tree volume, of populations across climatic gradients and associates the preference of a population with increased volume production along the climatic gradient. Clustering and ordination on the matrix containing estimates of change in productivity for each population summarise differentials in productivity associated with climatic gradients. The preference of populations along principal components therefore reflects the adaptive profiles of populations, which may be used with breeding-value estimates from routine genetic evaluations to assist with the development of deployment populations targeting different environments. As well, the approach may be used to test whether the preference of a population, estimated as population loadings for growth differentials, is affected by the climate in the native range of the population. This relationship may be interpreted as an estimate of how much local climate shapes the adaptive profiles of populations. The amount and seasonality of precipitation most clearly differentiate the adaptive profiles of populations, with less variation in the population responses explained by temperature differentiation. As expected from type-B correlation estimates, most populations exhibited small changes in relative productivity across climatic gradients. However, patterns of similarities in adaptive profiles among populations were evident using spatial orientation to display population responses to the climatic variables experienced in the provenance trials. Clustering and ordination of population responses derived from empirical data served to identify populations that responded positively or negatively to climatic variables; this information may help guide conservation genetics efforts, direct the deployment of germplasm, or identify seed sources that are sensitive to changes in climatic variables. Linking response patterns to the climatic data from the native range of each population indicated little effect of local climate shaping adaptive profiles.     

Understanding the role of climatic and environmental variables in gonadal maturation and spawning periodicity of spotted snakehead, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Channa punctata</Emphasis> (Bloch, 1793) in a tropical floodplain wetland,India

Temperature and seasonal rainfall along with other environmental variables are important in regulating the reproductive cycles in teleost fishes. Certain environmental variables may act as cues for reproduction and changes in these may affect seasonality and success of reproduction, as fishes are known to integrate their physiological functions with environmental cycles. Wetlands are sensitive to climate change due to their shallow and confined nature. Since wetlands are important spawning and nursery grounds for many fishes, changes in the environmental variables may have direct consequences for the spawning and survival of fish. In the present study, we have assessed climatic and water chemistry variables capable of influencing seasonality in environmental variables as well as gonadal maturation of spotted snakehead Channa punctata, to predict threshold values of Gonado Somatic Index in females and a favourable range of identified climatic and water chemistry variables for breeding success. Among the climatic and water chemistry variables studied, seasonal variation in rainfall was found to have the most profound effect on gonadal maturation and breeding in C. punctata, followed by water temperature. The favourable range of rainfall obtained varied between 800 mm to 1400 mm, corresponding to the water temperature range between 29 °C and 31 °C. An overall significant warming trend with a reduction in total rainfall has been observed with changes in seasonal trends in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The rainfall being the major climatic factors influencing water chemistry in the wetlands during the spawning season, changes in rainfall pattern may influence breeding periodicity of C. punctata in wetlands in climate change scenario.     

Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases

Seasonal variations in temperature, rainfall and resource availability are ubiquitous and can exert strong pressures on population dynamics. Infectious diseases provide some of the best-studied examples of the role of seasonality in shaping population fluctuations. In this paper, we review examples from human and wildlife disease systems to illustrate the challenges inherent in understanding the mechanisms and impacts of seasonal environmental drivers. Empirical evidence points to several biologically distinct mechanisms by which seasonality can impact host–pathogen interactions, including seasonal changes in host social behaviour and contact rates, variation in encounters with infective stages in the environment, annual pulses of host births and deaths and changes in host immune defences. Mathematical models and field observations show that the strength and mechanisms of seasonality can alter the spread and persistence of infectious diseases, and that population-level responses can range from simple annual cycles to more complex multiyear fluctuations. From an applied perspective, understanding the timing and causes of seasonality offers important insights into how parasite–host systems operate, how and when parasite control measures should be applied, and how disease risks will respond to anthropogenic climate change and altered patterns of seasonality. Finally, by focusing on well-studied examples of infectious diseases, we hope to highlight general insights that are relevant to other ecological interactions.     

Increases in egg production in multiply mated female bushcrickets Leptophyes punctatissima are not due to substances in the nuptial gift

Abstract. 1. A positive effect of the degree of polyandry on egg production is widespread in insects, particularly in species in which the male provides a nuptial gift.
2. This study aimed to determine whether or not this effect is due to females using nutrients from the nuptial gift (spermatophore and spermatophylax) to manufacture more eggs in the bushcricket Leptophyes punctatissima .
3. Females were permitted either a single or a double mating (with two different males) and, in both mating categories, were either prevented from consuming any part of the spermatophore or were permitted to consume the entire spermatophore.
4. Doubly mated females were found to lay over twice as many eggs over a 4-week period compared with singly mated females. This difference did not appear to be caused by the consumption of extra nuptial gift material: mating was found to have a significant positive effect on the number of eggs laid, while nuptial gift feeding had no effect.     

Inbreeding,isonymy, and kin-structured migration in the principality of Andorra

Andorra, one of the smallest countries in Europe, is geographically very isolated. Located in the Central Pyrenees, it is surrounded by high mountains. This paper investigates the endogamous levels and relationships between demographic or geographical variation and inbreeding coefficients calculated through isonymic methods. Our results suggest that political and geographical frontiers are not significant enough to pose effective genetic barriers. The overall inbreeding coefficient average (0.0031) is moderate with respect to other populations in the same region. Temporal and geographical variations of total inbreeding and their components are explained in relation to changes in population size and intensity, and to origin and destination of migrant collectives. Although the spatial distribution of the population of Andorra is the main contributing factor to inbreeding, the kin-structured composition of immigrant collectives is another fundamental factor that helps to explain the levels and variation of inbreeding.     

The natural regulation of buffalo populations in East Africa: II. Reproduction,recruitment and growth*

Aspects of the seasonality of breeding, age-specific fertility, and growth were studied in a sample of animals collected from the Serengeti buffalo population, and compared with two populations in Uganda. Fluctuations in fertility and recruitment were studied by the use of regular aerial photographic samples of herds in the Serengeti. The fluctuations in fertility rate were not related to density and hence could not have regulated the population. Buffalo show a pronounced seasonality in births which is correlated with the quality of ingested food and with rainfall. Since the female has a considerably higher food requirement during late pregnancy and lactation, nutrition is probably an important factor determining this seasonality. Conception does not appear to be influenced by nutrition, for the quality of food remains high throughout the rainy season prior to and during the period of conception. Growth rate, age of first ovulation, and age of sexual maturity do not appear to differ between the Serengeti and Uganda populations. Although there is little difference in fertility between these populations, as measured from the collected samples, little weight can be placed on this evidence, for large fluctuations in fertility can take place from year to year within a population. The fluctuations in the Serengeti population do not appear to be correlated with rainfall, and it is possible that they are random. Fluctuations in recruitment from year to year are also observed. Two sample areas over 100 km apart but within the same population show parallel fluctuations suggesting a similar external influence on the size of the recruitment. This recruitment is not correlated with population size but it may be related to rainfall. Underweight calves at birth have been recorded and this may have been caused by the undernutrition of pregnant females during the dry season through a combination of poor food supply and the demands of the previous lactation.     

Molecular phylogenetics and biogeography of the Neocellia Series of Anopheles mosquitoes in the Oriental Region

Molecular studies of population divergence and speciation across the Oriental Region are sparse, despite the region’s high biodiversity and extensive Pliocene and Pleistocene environmental change. A molecular phylogenetic study of the Neocellia Series of Anopheles mosquitoes was undertaken to identify patterns of diversification across the Oriental Region and to infer the role of Pleistocene and Pliocene climatic change. A robust phylogeny was constructed using CO2 and ND5 mitochondrial genes and ITS2 and D3 nuclear ribosomal markers. Bayesian analysis of mitochondrial genes was used to date divergence events. The repeated contraction and expansion of forest habitat resulting from Pleistocene climatic fluctuations appears to have had a substantial impact on intraspecific diversification, but has not driven speciation within this group. Primarily early to mid Pliocene speciation was detected within the Annularis Group, whereas speciation within the Maculatus and Jamesii Groups occurred during the mid and late Pliocene. Both allopatric divergence driven by late Pliocene environmental changes and ecological adaptation, involving altitudinal replacement and seasonality, are likely to have influenced speciation in the Maculatus Group.     

Time series analysis of the epidemiological transition in Minorca, 1634-1997

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models provide a powerful tool for detecting seasonal patterns in mortality statistics. The strength of ARIMA models lies in their ability to reveal complex structures of temporal interdependence in time series. Moreover, changes in model parameters provide an empirical basis for detecting secular trends and death seasonality patterns. This approach is illustrated by our analysis of changes in the mortality patterns of the population of the town of Es Mercadal on the island of Minorca between 1634 and 1997. These data reveal a transition from an early mortality pattern requiring a complex ARIMA model that accounts for a strong seasonal death pattern and periodic epidemic-related mortality crises to a much simpler 20th-century pattern that can be described by a simple single-parameter ARIMA model. These same data were also analyzed using standard seasonality tests. The results show that the reduction in the number of parameters required to fit the Es Mercadal mortality data coincides with the epidemiological transition in which the predominant causes of morbidly and mortality shift from infectious to degenerative causes.     

Ejaculate size in bushcrickets: the importance of being large

Sexual size dimorphism is common in animals. Females, which often experience increased fecundity with size, are generally the larger sex. In males, the pre-copulatory advantages of large size have been extensively investigated. However, in polyandrous species, large male size may also be advantageous after copulation due to sperm competition. Male size co-varies with ejaculate size and increased fertilization success in many insects. Large male size can also be important for production of nuptial gifts enhancing female fecundity. In this study, the relative importance of male size for ejaculate and nuptial gift production is assessed in 20 bushcricket species (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae). Relative male size is found to correlate with increased ejaculate size across taxa. In contrast, no association is found between relative male size and the size or quality of the nuptial gift. These findings indicate that selection for increased ejaculate volumes as a response to sperm competition may act to promote large male size in insects.     

The environmental consequences of a change in Australian cotton lint production

Purpose

Changes in the production of Australian cotton lint are expected to have a direct environmental impact, as well as indirect impacts related to co-product substitution and induced changes in crop production. The environmental consequences of a 50% expansion or contraction in production were compared to Australian cotton production’s current environmental footprint. Both were then assessed to investigate whether current impacts are suitable for predicting the environmental impact of a change in demand for cotton lint.

Methods

A consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) model of Australian cotton lint production (cradle-to-gin gate) was developed using plausible scenarios regarding domestic regions and technologies affected by changes in supply, with both expansion (additional cotton) and contraction (less cotton) being modelled. Modelling accounted for direct impacts from cotton production and indirect impacts associated with changes to cotton production, including co-product substitution and changes to related crops at regional and global scales. Impact categories assessed included climate change, fossil energy demand, freshwater consumption, water stress, marine and freshwater eutrophication, land occupation and land-use change.

Results and discussion

For both the expansion and contraction scenarios, the changes to climate change impacts (including iLUC) and water impacts were less than would be assumed from current production as determined using attributional LCA. However, the opposite was true for all other impact categories, indicating trade-offs across the impact categories. Climate change impacts under both scenarios were relatively minor because these were largely offset by iLUC. Similarly, under the contraction scenario, water impacts were dominated by indirect impacts associated with regional crops. A sensitivity analysis showed that the results were sufficiently robust to indicate the quantum of changes that could be expected.

Conclusions

A complex array of changes in technologies, production regions and related crops were required to model the environmental impacts of a gross change in cotton production. Australian cotton lint production provides an example of legislation constraining the direct water impacts of production, leading to a contrast between impacts estimated by attributional and consequential LCA. This model demonstrated that indirect products and processes are important contributors to the environmental impacts of Australian cotton lint.

     

Climatic seasonality, resource bottlenecks, and abundance of rainforest birds: implications for global climate change

We demonstrate that within-year climatic variability, particularly rainfall seasonality, is the most significant variable explaining spatial patterns of bird abundance in Australian tropical rainforest. The likely mechanism causing this pattern is a resource bottleneck (insects, nectar, and fruit) during the dry season that limits the population size of many species. The patterns support both the diversity–climatic–stability hypothesis and the species–energy hypothesis but clearly show that seasonality in energy availability may be a more significant factor than annual totals or means. An index of dry season severity is proposed that quantifies the combined effect of the degree of dryness and the duration of the dry season. We suggest that the predicted increases in seasonality due to global climate change could produce significant declines in bird abundance, further exacerbating the impacts of decreased range size, increased fragmentation, and decreased population size likely to occur as a result of increasing temperature. We suggest that increasing climatic seasonality due to global climate change has the potential to have significant negative impacts on tropical biodiversity.     

Is diversification in male reproductive traits driven by evolutionary trade-offs between weapons and nuptial gifts?

Many male animals have evolved exaggerated traits that they use in combat with rival males to gain access to females and secure their reproductive success. But some male animals invest in nuptial gifts that gains them access to females. Both these reproductive strategies are costly in that resources are needed to produce the weapon or nuptial gift. In closely related species where both weapons and nuptial gifts are present, little is known about the potential evolutionary trade-off faced by males that have these traits. In this study, we use dobsonflies (order Megaloptera, family Corydalidae, subfamily Corydalinae) to examine the presence and absence of enlarged male weapons versus nuptial gifts within and among species. Many dobsonfly species are sexually dimorphic, and males possess extremely enlarged mandibles that they use in battles, whereas in other species, males produce large nuptial gifts that increase female fecundity. In our study, we show that male accessory gland size strongly correlates with nuptial gift size and that when male weapons are large, nuptial gifts are small and vice versa. We mapped weapons and nuptial gifts onto a phylogeny we constructed of 57 species of dobsonflies. Our among-species comparison shows that large nuptial gift production evolved in many species of dobsonfly but is absent from those with exaggerated weapons. This pattern supports the potential explanation that the trade-off in resource allocation between weapons and nuptial gifts is important in driving the diversity of male mating strategies seen in the dobsonflies, whereas reduced male–male competition in the species producing large spermatophores could be an alternative explanation on their loss of male weapons. Our results shed new light on the evolutionary interplay of multiple sexually selected traits in animals.     

Reproductive success in a natural population of male three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus: effects of nuptial colour,parasites and body size

The effects of nuptial colour, parasites and body size on reproductive success were examined in a natural population of three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus. Reproductive males were collected, with the contents of their nests, during the embryo‐guarding stage from Lynne Lake (Cook Inlet, Alaska, U.S.A.), and nuptial colour, infection status and body size were recorded. Regression analysis revealed that male body size was the only predictor, of those measured, of reproductive success in nature.