The Importance of Tropical Rain Forest Fragments to the Conservation of Plant Species Diversity in Los Tuxtlas, Mexico

Of what value are forest fragments to the conservation of the tropical rain forest diversity for a landscape? We compared the changes in composition, diversity, and plant structure of 15 small (1–76 ha) relatively unprotected forest fragments with those of a large (700 ha) well protected fragment (LWPF) in Los Tuxtlas, Mexico. The trees, shrubs, lianas, palms, and herbs with dbh?≥?2.5 cm were sampled in 1000 m² at each site. For each ecological group (based on light requirements for germination: primary, secondary, and non-secondary light demanding, NSLD, species) and life form, estimates of species diversity, density, and basal area were analyzed using a stepwise multiple regression to determine whether there were any relationships between these variables and fragment characteristics (size, shape index, and isolation). The composition and plant structure of LWPF were different from those of the small fragments and large trees are absent from the canopy of the latter. Fragment size best explained the differences in composition and plant structure. Species composition in the largest fragments was similar to that of LWPF, but there was no significant difference in total richness between LWPF and the fragments, even though both the richness and abundance of secondary and NSLD species did differ. LWPF had more large primary trees in the canopy, and a greater abundance and basal area of palms and herbs. For tropical rain forest conservation, it is important to maintain the greatest possible number of large fragments and establish policies that prevent forest remnants from being further reduced in size and increasingly isolated from each other.     

Tropical rain forest fragmentation and wild populations of primates at Los Tuxtlas,Mexico

In view of the extensive destruction, fragmentation, and conversion of primate habitats to anthropogenic vegetation, information on Neotropical primate ability to use a landscape consisting of forest fragments and agricultural habitats is necessary to understand the ecological flexibility of the species involved and it is of relevance to the design of conservation scenarios at the landscape level. We censused howlers and spider monkeys in 126 forest fragments and in 44 agricultural sites at Los Tuxtlas, southern Veracruz, Mexico, and used the IDRISI Geographic Information System to assess the extent of primate habitat remaining. We conducted economic surveys to assess the productivity of several systems of land management, including cattle ranching. Seventy- five percent of native habitat has been lost at Los Tuxtlas, 20% remains in the form of isolated fragments of vegetation, and only 5% consists of contiguous rain forest at high elevations (> 800 m). Howlers and spider monkeys were present in only 60 and 8% of the forest sites investigated, respectively, attesting to extensive local extinction. Populations of both species are small and found in a fragmented and isolated condition throughout the landscape. A large number of howlers were detected in artifactual habitats such as cacao, coffee and mixed (cacao and coffee) plantations shaded by rain forest trees. Residual rain forest vegetation along streams, rivers, and lakes facilitated the interfragment and interhabitat movement of howlers. Economic surveys showed that some of the agricultural habitats were more productive than cattle ranching. Conservation of spider monkeys requires large areas of contiguous forest, but only small areas are present at high elevations. Howlers are restricted to elevations < 800 m, where most of the forest has disappeared, but can apparently exist in a matrix of forest fragments, arboreal agricultural habitats, and pasture lands. Structural aspects of the vegetation and connectivity among habitat islands may be indispensable components of both landscape scenarios.     

Patterns of frugivore species richness and abundance in forest islands and in agricultural habitats at Los Tuxtlas,Mexico

Destruction and fragmentation of tropical rain forest result in a loss of species and of generating capacity of the ecosystem via animal vectors such as seed dispersal agents. To gather quantitative data regarding this ecological problem, birds and mammals were censused in 30 forest fragments, 15 agricultural islands representing five types of vegetation (coffee, cacao, citrus, pepper and mixed-crops) and in three pastures in Los Tuxtlas, southern Veracruz, Mexico. More than 6000 animals of 257 species were detected thus suggesting the existence of a rich species pool in the fragmented landscape. Frugivores accounted for 60% of species, for 72% of individuals censured and for 85% of the total animal biomass recorded. Clusters of small forest fragments (<100 ha) were richer in species and individuals than clusters of large area (>100 ha) forest islands. Pastures were especially poor in forest birds and mammals. While the agricultural islands studied contributed to only 1% of the total area of vegetation sampled, they contained 58% of all species detected and 34% of all individual birds and mammals censured. Recaptures indicated inter-island movements of forest birds and mammals. Forty percent of the species were detected in forest habitats only, the rest were detected in forest and in agricultural habitats. Seeds of forest interior plants dispersed by birds and bats were detected in the agricultural habitats. The value of agricultural islands as landscape features providing some degree of biotic connectivity among fragmented animal populations is discussed.     

Dung beetles in continuous forest, forest fragments and in an agricultural mosaic habitat island at Los Tuxtlas, Mexico

With the aim of determining what kind of landscape mosaics might sustainmaximum diversity and minimum species loss, dung beetles were sampled withbaited pitfall traps to compare species richness and species composition in atract of continuous forest, forest fragments and a habitat island consisting ofa mosaic of forest and arboreal crops in Los Tuxtlas, southern Mexico. Wecaptured 7332 dung beetles representing 33 species. Similar numbers of specieswere captured in the three habitats. However, 56% of individuals were capturedin the continuous forest, 29% in the mosaic habitat and 15% in the forestfragments. Eight species (Canthon femoralis,Copris laeviceps, Canthidium centrale,Onthophagus batesi, Deltochilumpseudoparile, O. rhinolophus, Canthonviridis vazquezae and Dichotomius satanus) accounted for 90% of thecaptures, but their relative dominance varied among habitats. A clear trend wasevident in the number of dung beetles captured in the dung processing guilds(rollers/tunnelers) as well as in the diurnal and nocturnal guilds, withcaptures decreasing from the continuous forest to the mosaic habitat to theforest fragments. A similar trend was detected in detection rates for medium andsmall size dung producing mammals. Species richness of forest fragments andmosaic habitat did not differ from that found in the continuous forest, butthese habitats differ significantly in species richness from isolated shaded andunshaded plantations, linear strips of vegetation, the forest–pasture edge andpastures according to rarefaction analysis. The co-occurrence of the continuousforest, the mosaic habitat and the cluster of forest fragments in closeproximity seems to be preserving a diverse assemblage of dung beetle species inthe local landscape.     

Number of Lianas per Tree and Number of Trees Climbed by Lianas at Los Tuxtlas,Mexico1

In the tropical rainforest of Los Tuxtlas, Mexico, lianas (woody‐climbing plants) had a clumped distribution on trees, and 63.3 percent of trees ≥10 cm in diameter carried at least one liana. Trees with larger diameters supported more lianas and a higher total basal area of lianas than trees with smaller diameters. There was no relationship between liana diameter and the number of trees a liana climbed, but tendril climbers climbed on more trees than stem‐twiners.     

Diversity of Neotropical migratory landbird species assemblages in forest fragments and man-made vegetation in Los Tuxtlas,Mexico

We investigated the presence of Neotropical migratory landbirds in a 90-km² landscape in the region of Los Tuxtlas, Veracruz, Mexico. Using the fixed-radius count point procedure, migratory landbirds were surveyed in 21 forest fragments and in four replicates of shaded (coffee, cacao and mixed) and unshaded (citrus and allspice) plantations, live fences, non-arboreal crops (corn and jalapeño chili pepper) and pastures. The surveys resulted in the count of 4732 birds representing 72 species. While forest fragments accounted for 65% of the total species count, 73% of the birds were counted in the arboreal man-made habitats. Pastures contributed to 10% of the species and to 1% of the individuals counted. Live fences were particularly rich in individuals, accounting for 28% of the birds counted. Rarefaction analysis showed that forest fragments were the sites richest in species, followed by shaded and unshaded plantations and by live fences. Pastures were the habitats poorest in species, followed by non-arboreal crops. Species richness of Neotropical migratory landbirds was associated to vertical and horizontal diversity of vegetation in the habitats investigated. Shaded and unshaded plantations as well as live fences were more similar to forest fragments in species assemblages than non-arboreal crops and pastures. We discuss the conservation value of arboreal agricultural habitat and of live fences in conjunction with forest fragments as temporary habitats for Neotropical migratory landbirds that stop over or winter in Los Tuxtlas.     

Farm Households and Land Use in a Core Conservation Zone of the Maya Biosphere Reserve,Guatemala

This paper employs cross-tabular analysis, and multivariate and logistic regression to explore demographic, political-economic, socioeconomic, and ecological patterns of farm households and land use outcomes in an emergent agricultural frontier: the Sierra de Lacandón National Park (SLNP)-a core conservation zone of the Maya Biosphere Reserve (MBR), Petén, Guatemala. Data were obtained from a 1998 probability sample of 241 farm households, the first large detailed household land use survey in Guatemala’s Selva Maya-the largest lowland tropical forest in Central America. Virtually all settler households were poor maize farmers who colonized the SLNP in search of land for subsistence. While they faced similar ecological and economic conditions, land use strategies and patterns of forest clearing varied with demographic, household, and farm characteristics. Findings support and refute elements from previous frontier land use theory and offer policy implications for conservation and development initiatives in the Maya Forest specifically, and in tropical agricultural frontiers in general.

Bird species richness in vegetation fences and in strips of residual rain forest vegetation at Los Tuxtlas, Mexico

Fragmentation of the lowland tropical rain forest has resulted in loss of animal and plant species and isolation of remaining populations that puts them at risk. At Los Tuxtlas, Mexico, lowland rain forests are particularly diverse in the avian fauna they contain and while most of the forests have been fragmented by human activity, many of the fragments still harbor diverse assemblages of bird species. In these landscapes, linear strips of residual rain forest vegetation along streams as well as linear strips of vegetation fences (live fences) crossing the pastures might provide some connectivity to bird populations existed in forest fragments. We investigated bird species richness and relative abundance in one 6-km long section of live fences (LF) bordering a dirt road and in two 6-km long sections of residual forest vegetation along a river (MR) and one permanent stream (BS). We used point count procedures which resulted in the count of 2984 birds representing 133 species. At the LF site we detected 74% of the species, 72% at the BS site and 57% at the MR site. Only 38% of the species were common among sites. Neotropical migratory birds accounted for 34–41% of the species counted at all sites. While edge and open habitat birds accounted for 6–10% of the species and for 50% of the records at the three vegetation strips, about 90% of the species were forest birds. Distance to forest fragments and degree of disturbance of the vegetation seemed to negatively influence bird species presence at the BS and MR strips. Rarefaction analysis indicated that the LF strip was richer in species than the other two sites, but the occurrence of the three vegetation strips in the landscape seem to favor the presence of many more species. We discuss the value of these vegetation strips to birds as stepping stones in the fragmented landscape.     

Impacts of Community-based Conservation on Local Communities in the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal

Approaches to the management of protected areas that involve the participation of local communities are now being widely promoted. However, the impacts of such community-based conservation initiatives on local communities remain poorly defined. This research examines the socio-economic impacts of community-based conservation within the Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA), Nepal, through semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire survey with local residents, situated both within and outside the protected area. Results indicate that local communities have received a number of benefits from conservation, including improvements in access to forest resources, improved basic infrastructure such as drinking water, trails and bridges, and improvements in health, sanitation and social services. However, relatively few people (14.9%) within ACA receive direct financial income from tourism. Local communities also experience a number of costs of being involved in conservation, the most significant of which is increased crop damage by wildlife. Eighty-four percent of respondents within ACA have experienced problems of crop damage, accounting for 6% (rice) to 23% (maize) of total production. Depredation of livestock by wildlife is also experienced; mean losses per household being the equivalent of ￡3.9 (Rs. 479.70) each year. However, 66% of respondents within ACA reported that they had never experienced this problem. These results indicate that the socio-economic benefits of community-based approaches to conservation can outweigh the costs, even though the latter are significant. However, a participatory approach to management of problematic animal species will need to be developed within ACA, if conflicts between local communities and protected area management are to be avoided in future.     

Use of Fruiting Trees by Birds in Continuous Forest and Riparian Forest Remnants in Los Tuxtlas,Veracruz, Mexico1

The composition of plant species in fragmented landscapes may be influenced by the pattern of visitation by birds to fruiting trees and by the movement of seeds among and within fragments. We compared bird visitation patterns to two tree species (Dendropanax arboreus, Araliaceae; Bursera simaruba, Burseraceae) in continuous forest and remnants of riparian vegetation in a region dominated by pasture in Los Tuxtlas, Veracruz, Mexico. We quantified frequency of visitation, fruit consumption, consistency of visitation (percentage of total tree observation periods during which a given bird species was recorded), and species composition of birds at individuals of both tree species in continuous forest and riparian remnants. Bird visitation rate, species richness, and fruit consumption rates were similar within both tree species in the two habitats. Species assemblages at D. arboreus were different between continuous forest and remnants. Species assemblages at B. simaruba did not differ by habitat. Our results demonstrate that habitat disturbance may influence avian visitation patterns, which may in turn affect subsequent recruitment patterns in some tree species. Our results, however, were not consistent between the tree species, suggesting that it is difficult to generalize concerning the effects of forest disturbance on avian species assemblages in fruiting trees.     

Climatic responses of Pinus pseudostrobus and Abies religiosa in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve,Central Mexico

Understanding the effects of climate on the growth of trees is important to project the response of forests to climate change. Dendrochronological analysis offers a “proxy” source for the effects of climatic variation on tree growth at different spatial and temporal scales. To examine influences of temperature and precipitation on radial growth of Pinus pseudostrobus and Abies religiosa, this study combines measurements of radial growth patterns of forest trees in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) in central Mexico with temperature and precipitation variables from instrumental records. Dendrochronological samples were collected as cross sections and increment cores by using a chainsaw and increment borers, respectively. Total ring-width chronologies were developed for each site. Principal component analyses (PCA) were used to identify common temperature, precipitation and tree growth variation patterns. Correlation and response function analyses between chronologies and records of temperature and precipitation were used to evaluate the relation of climate variables on tree growth. The months during which tree growth was most strongly affected by precipitation were January, February and October from the previous year; only the temperature of September from the previous year affected the tree growth. In some chronologies, May’s average monthly maximum temperature was negatively correlated with tree growth. PCA and a comparison of PCA factor scores of climatic variables and chronologies showed no significant differences between northern, central or southern portions of the MBBR. Apparently, tree growth in the MBBR is reduced in years of low January–May precipitation combined with high summer (September of the previous year) temperatures, a scenario which is likely to occur as a consequence of global climate change.     

Major ions,nutrients and primary productivity in volcanic neotropical streams draining rainforest and pasture catchments at Los Tuxtlas,Veracruz, Mexico

Six streams in the Los Tuxtlas region, a volcanic area in southeastern Mexico, were characterized chemically and biologically. Temperature, pH, conductivity, ions (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, CaCO^– ₃ and SO^2- ₄), nutrients (NO^– ₃, NH⁺ ₄, total P and PO^–3 ₄), and chlorophyll a from epilithon were measured every other month from September 1996 to July 1997. The streams studied had a consistent pattern of cation dominance (Na⁺>Ca²⁺>Mg²⁺>K⁺), and ionic concentrations varied little during the year of study; nutrients, however, showed strong temporal variability. The ion chemistry of the streams was influenced by bedrock weathering according to the Gibbs Model. The streams are chiefly mesotrophic, but their primary production may be limited by nitrogen based on the N:P ratio. Streams differed in chlorophyll a concentrations and their productivity changed temporally. They were among the most mineral-rich tropical streams, and both their ion concentration levels and cationic patterns coincided with other neotropical volcanic streams. Although there was a pattern in which ion concentrations of the streams were negatively related to the proportion of conserved vegetation and positively related to the proportion of pastures and croplands, the relationships were not statistically significant. We concluded that differences in the major ions of the streams studied were caused by the great heterogeneity in geology and soil types, as well as by geothermal activity in the area. Temporal changes in nutrients were related to biological processes in the streams that influenced primary productivity. Moreover, the influence of land use might be hidden by the strong effect of this heterogeneity on the streams studied.     

Fruit eating and seed dispersal by howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) in the tropical rain forest of Los Tuxtlas,Mexico

The frugivory and ranging habits of howling monkeys living in the rain forest of Los Tuxtlas, Veracruz, Mexico, were studied for 5 consecutive years with the aim of investigating the role of seed dispersal agents played by the howling monkeys. The howling monkeys' consumption of fruit occupied half of their feeding time, and 80% of this time was spent feeding on mature fruit. Observations confirmed use of 19 tree species and a preference for a few species of Moraceae and Lauraceae. Fruit exploitation was very seasonal; only two species provided fruit year-round. Home range size was about 60 ha, and animals in the troop (N = 16) showed a day range of 10–893 m. Monthly collection of fecal samples during 2 years indicated that 90% of the seeds (N = 7,928) in the samples belonged to eight tree species and to one liana; the rest belonged to 15 unidentified species of vines. Germination success for the seeds in the feces was about 60% and for control seeds was 35%. Howling monkeys created diverse seed shadows in the vicinity of their leaf and fruit sources, and while they dispersed the seeds of some plant species, they also produced a great deal of fruit and seed waste for others.     

Las Islas de los Changos (the Monkey Islands): the economic impact of ecotourism in the region of Los Tuxtlas, Veracruz, Mexico

This study evaluates the popularity and economic impact of Las Islas de los Changos (the Monkey Islands) as an ecotourism site on Lake Catemaco in the Los Tuxtlas region of Veracruz, Mexico. Two small island colonies of exotic primates, stumptail macaques (Macaca arctoides), have proved to be highly beneficial for the local economy as the main attraction for tourists in this region. From July 1991 to June 1992, data were collected on the number of tourists who took boat trips to visit the primates, and the amount of money spent on tours to the islands. The data suggest that at least 28,470 passengers visit these primate troops annually and spend approximately 88,970 U.S. dollars (USD). Follow-up questionnaires during July 1997 to June 2000 to hotelkeepers and tourist boat operators identified the Monkey Islands as the primary destination for tourists to this region. A comparison of the net income obtained by local ecotourism operators with wages earned through other types of employment in the Los Tuxtlas region, such as working in natural reserves, agriculture, or renting grazing land for cattle, show the relative importance of Las Islas de Los Changos in sustaining the local economy.     

Feeding and general activity patterns of a howler monkey (Alouatta palliata) troop living in a forest fragment at Los Tuxtlas,Mexico

The feeding behavior and general activity patterns of a howler monkey troop living in a 3.6 ha forest fragment were studied at Los Tuxtlas, Mexico, for an annual cycle. Monthly samples of their feeding behavior indicated that they used 52 species of 24 plant families as sources of food. Of these, 67% were trees, which accounted for 96% of total feeding time recorded. Ten species of Moraceae, Cecropiaceae, Anacrdiaceae. and Sapotaceae contributed to 70% of the trees used and to almost 90% of feeding time. The number of plant species used per monthly record varied from 7 to 31 with an average of 19.9 species. Young leaves and ripe fruit were the principal items in the monthly diet of howlers and average percent of time spent consuming these plant parts was 46.7% and 34.8%, respectively. The use of tree species was found to be associated to their importance value and to their pattern of spatial dispersal in the study site. Availability of young leaves was fairly constant from month to month, but it presented a seasonal pattern, and there was a significantly lower number of tree species bearing ripe fruit through the year with brief pulses of production. The monthly activity pattern was found to be related to variations in the availability of young leaves and ripe fruit as well as to the values of the intermonthly overlap in plant species used. Resting and feeding presented a bimodal pattern of occurrence throughout the day that seemed to be related to variations in maximum ambient temperatures. Results are discussed in light of the small size and shape of the forest fragment inhabited by the howler troop. Am. J. Primatol. 48:167–183, 1999. © 1999 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Use of leaf resources by howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) and leaf-cutting ants (Atta cephalotes) in the tropical rain forest of Los Tuxtlas,Mexico

Use of leaf resources by a troop of howling monkeys and two colonies of leaf cutting ants was studied for an annual cycle in the rain forest of Los Tuxtlas, Mexico. Howling monkeys spent half their annual foraging time feeding on leaves; leaf-cutting ants spent at least 80% of their recorded foraging time harvesting leaves. Both herbivores preferred young leaves over nature ones, and chemical analysis showed that the protein: fibre ratio of the leaves used was correlated with these preferences. Howling monkeys used 34 tree species as leaf sources. Leaf-cutting ants used 40 plant species of which 38 were trees. Eighteen species used by Alouatta were also used by Atta; species of Moraceae and Lauraceae were among the most important in their foraging preferences. The plant species used by monkeys and ants occurred at low densities (? 4.0 ind/ha). The seasonal production of leaves, the high density of leaf-cutting ant colonies at the study site, and the high amounts of young foliage harvested by the ants from tree species, and individual trees used by howling monkeys as sources of young leaves suggest that the foraging activities of Atta may represent a significant pressure upon leaf resources available to Alouatta.     

Survey and census of howler monkeys (Alouatta palliata) in the rain forest of “Los Tuxtlas,” Veracruz,Mexico

Howler monkey troops were censused at the biological reserve “Los Tuxtlas” in Veracruz, Mexico. The reserve includes 700 ha of rain forest. Twenty howler monkeys were also trapped, measured, marked, and released. Censuses were conducted for a period of 26 months, and they indicated the existence of 17 troops. The mean troop size was 9.12 (SD ± 2.93), and mean troop composition was 3.0 adult males, 4.12 females, 1.56 juveniles, and 1.54 infants. Ecological density was 0.23 howlers/ha or 23.29 howlers/km². The male to female ratio was 1:1.37. No discrete seasonality in births was noted. Howler monkeys in this locality inhabit the northernmost limit of the neotropical rain forest. The population parameters fall within those reported for Alouatta palliata at other sites.     

Effectiveness of natural protected areas to prevent land use and land cover change in Mexico

This study evaluated the extent to which natural protected areas (NPAs) in Mexico have been effective for preventing land use/land cover change, considered as a major cause of other degradation processes. We developed an effectiveness index including NPA percentage of transformed areas (agriculture, induced vegetation, forestry plantations, and human settlements) in 2002, the rate and absolute extent of change in these areas (1993–2002), the comparison between rates of change observed inside the NPA and in an equivalent surrounding area, and between the NPA and the state(s) in which it is located. We chose 69 terrestrial federal NPAs, decreed before 1997, that were larger than 1,000 ha, not urban/reforested with non-native vegetation, not islands and not coastal strips, and estimated the extent of transformed areas using 1993 and 2002 land use/land cover maps. Over 54% of NPAs were effective, and were heterogeneously distributed by management categories: 65% of Biosphere Reserves, 53% of Flora and Fauna Protection Areas, and 45% of National Parks. 23% of NPAs were regarded as weakly effective, and the remaining 23% as non-effective. We recognize the importance of NPAs as a relevant conservation instrument, as half of NPAs analyzed (particularly biosphere reserves) prevented natural vegetation loss compared with their geographic context. Our results suggest that conservation based on NPAs in Mexico still faces significant challenges. Our approach can be expanded for evaluating the effectiveness of NPA in other regions, as land use/land cover maps are now available almost worldwide.     

A preliminary study of resource overlap between howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) and other arboreal mammals in the tropical rain forest of Los Tuxtlas,Mexico

Potential resource overlap between howling monkeys and other arboreal mammals was studied in the rain forest of Los Tuxtlas, Veracruz, Mexico. Eight species of mammals belonging to the orders Primates, Carnivora, Rodentia, and Marsupialia were found to share the canopy and to overlap trophically with howling monkeys. These mammals made up 77% and Alouatta 23% of the arboreal mammalian biomass under consideration. The arboreal porcupine and spider monkey were the only mammals that also fed on leaves. However, in this feeding niche, Alouatta is the only important mammalian folivore in Los Tuxtlas, and resource depression derived from leaf-eating insects is more important. The eight arboreal mammals may exert more pressure upon fruit resources, for they consumed 75% of the estimated total dry weight of fruit/ha/yr consumed by arboreal mammals.     

Potential distribution of Ursus americanus in Mexico and its persistence: Implications for conservation

The black bear Ursus americanus is an endangered species in Mexico. Its historical distribution has decreased by approximately 80% although its current distribution is not known with precision; it is only reported to be present in the mountains of Northern Mexico. This study proposes two ensemble models: Mexicós black bear (a) potential distribution compared with Natural Protected Areas (NPAs); and, (b) persistence areas for 2024. The current distribution variables are coniferous forest, elevation and dry forest. Suitable habitat for black bear (354,047 km², 18.07% of the country) was found mainly in the north of the Sonoran biogeographical zone, along the Sierra Madre Occidental, the center and south of the Sierra Madre Oriental and some northern regions of the Altiplano Norte. Comparing these areas with NPAs documented that only 12.41% of potential distribution coincided with current suitable habitat. There are unprotected areas in Sierra Madre Occidental center and central and southern of Sierra Madre Oriental. The model for 2024 indicates a reduction of suitable habitat of 64.5%, mainly in the northern Sonoran zone and the center Sierra Madre Occidental. On the other hand, areas that will persist (125,673 km²) are located along the two main mountain ranges of Mexico. Identification of these sites will allow strengthening of long-term conservation strategies.