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1.
The consequences of different measures of biotic diversity for the selection of priority sites for conservation were investigated using a dataset on Afrotropical antelopes. Site networks were selected using species richness, taxonomic diversity and restricted-range diversity as selection criteria. Restricted-range diversity was the most efficient criterion at representing all the species in the dataset. However when only a few sites could be conserved (insufficient to include all species) restricted-range diversity was relatively poor at representing absolute numbers of species and also taxonomic diversity. Use of unweighted species richness rather than a taxonomically weighted score did not significantly reduce the amount of taxonomic diversity represented. As expected an iterative selection of sites was considerably more efficient at representing all aspects of diversity than selection of the top-scoring sites. However the efficiency of an iterative selection procedure was reduced when some areas were already part of the reserve network. Since none of the criteria for selecting reserves maximizes all aspects of biodiversity under all circumstances, it is necessary to be clear about the objectives of a reserve network when deciding on a method for site selection.  相似文献   

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  总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Aim This study examines the effectiveness of the selected ‘network’ of Natura 2000 Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) at a regional scale in Greece, in terms of its representativeness of plant biodiversity. Location The island of Crete is used as a case study because it is considered to be one of the 10 hotspots for biodiversity in the Mediterranean Basin. Methods Hotspot analysis and complementarity algorithms are used to define priority areas for conservation and calculate their spatial overlap with the Natura 2000 SACs in Crete. Results The various categories of hotspots contain subsamples of plant categories, used for their definition. Spatial overlap among different categories of hotspots, areas of complementary diversity and Natura 2000 SCAs is low. Main conclusions The results show that the Natura 2000 SACs ‘network’ in Crete seems insufficient to ensure satisfactory representation of the regional plant biodiversity elements.  相似文献   

4.
This paper presents models based on empirical data which can be used to predict the patterns of species richness of vascular plants at the poorly explored mesoscale. Using generalized linear modelling, multiple regression models of species richness in the Kevo Nature Reserve, North Finland, are built with a training set of 257 grid squares and 33 environmental variables. We validated the accuracy of the derived models with an independent test set of 100 grid squares. Two different modelling approaches are used: one where species richness is treated straightforwardly as the response variable, and another where it is tentatively stratified into two groups according to taxon types, i.e. alpine taxa versus wide-spread and silvine (forest) taxa. However, the latter approach only marginally improved the accuracy of the predictions of total number of species. Linear altitudinal variables were among the best predictors of vascular plant richness at the mesoscale. As variables involving altitude are crude surrogates for energy-related factors, the results support the available energy hypothesis and advocate its significance in richness-environment relationships. Other important predictors of species richness included length of rivers and brooks, abundance of cliff walls, occurrences of steep-sided gorges and valleys, and relative abundance of gabbro in bedrock. However, the accuracy of the predictions in the derived models is relatively modest. This points towards the necessity of field work as a final guarantee to identify local hotspots of vascular plant species in a subarctic landscape. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

5.
Possibilities to create an efficient network of areas for the conservation of Iberian dung-beetle biodiversity were investigated. Data were taken from BANDASCA, a 15,740 record dung-beetle database with information for 101,996 specimens. The greatest species richness and phylogenetic diversity are found in the Iberian Central System cordilleras, while those of range-size rarity are in the southernmost corner of the Iberian Peninsula and in the coastal plains of the Guadalquivir basin. Additionally, broad regional score trends of these variables reach a maximum in a smaller northeastern, and a larger southeastern region (Baetic and sub-Baetic mountains). Major Central and Southern Spain dung-beetle hotspots contain many of the UTM grid cells which delimit the near-minimum-set of areas hosting maximum dung-beetle biodiversity scores. They are viewed as the nucleus of a potential network of reserves. A UTM grid cell (30TXK1) where Onthophagus albarracinus, an endemic and demographically rare species inhabits the Sierra of Albarracín and Montes Universales, was detected as an irreplaceable area. Because of recent land use changes and rapid human-induced habitat transformation threatening dung-beetle fauna, caution should be taken not to recommend an in memoriam network of areas no longer hosting a fauna extinct today. The abandoning of traditional herding management in Europe threatens the preservation of grasslands where dung-feeding beetles play a major ecological role in maintaining pasture quality and livestock health. A return to more traditional herding methods would require stable dung-beetle populations. Any insect conservation planning in Spain would benefit from more biogeographical information for other insect groups.  相似文献   

6.
    
Vegetation restoration is usually based on predefined species assemblages from large‐scale maps of potential vegetation. However, most restoration plans apply to smaller spatial scales, so a homogeneous species assemblage is usually assigned to the target site. We propose defining species assemblages for restoration by modeling the distribution of individual target species. The example presented here is about postfire restoration, but it can be used in other types of disturbed areas. We surveyed 212 plots in well‐preserved vegetation around the burned area to obtain a list of target species and physical parameters of the plots. The burned area was divided in a grid of 723 squares, 1 ha each, and then characterized according to the same physical parameters. From these data, we modeled the distribution of 23 target species. A target map of predicted species assemblages was built combining species maps. This map largely resembles the native vegetation in terms of species richness per plot, environmental gradients in α‐diversity, spatial variation in β‐diversity, and frequency of species occurrence. Comparison between the target map and the current vegetation (recovery status) indicated that, on average, only half of the potential set of species is already present in each plot. Analysis of the recovery status suggested that both rock outcrops and areas at lower altitude, with gentle slope and deeper soil, recover faster. This illustrates the utility of target maps to outline plots in more need of restoration.  相似文献   

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曹铭昌  周广胜  翁恩生 《生态学报》2005,25(8):2031-2040
比较3个应用较广的模拟物种地理分布模型:广义线性模型(GLM)、广义加法模型(GAM)与分类回归树(CART)对中国树种地理分布模拟的优劣,以提出更为合适的模拟物种地理分布模型,并用于预测气候变化对物种地理分布的影响。3个模型对中国15种树种地理分布的模拟研究表明:除对油松、辽东栎分布的模拟精度稍差外,对其余树种分布的模拟精度均较高,其中以GAM模型最好。结合地理信息系统(GIS),比较分析了这3个模型对青冈、木荷、红松和油松4种树种的地理分布模拟效果,结果亦表明:这3个模型均能很好模拟青冈和木荷的地理分布,而GLM模型对红松分布的模拟结果不太理想,3个模型对油松分布的模拟结果均不甚理想,其中以GLM模型最差。基于3个模型对未来气候变化下青冈与蒙古栎地理分布的预测表明:GLM模型与GAM模型对青冈分布的预测结果较为接近,青冈在未来气候变化情景下向西和向北扩展,而CART模型预测青冈在未来气候变化情景下除有向西、向北扩展趋势外,广东和广西南部的青冈分布区将消失;3个模型均预测蒙古栎在未来气候变化情景下向西扩展,扩展面积的大小为:模型的模拟面积>模型>模型。  相似文献   

9.
Despite being the focus of an international research effort spanning decades, the spatial distribution of southern African scarab beetles remains poorly documented. As well as reinforcing the magnitude of the challenge facing biodiversity scientists, this raises real concerns about best practice conservation strategies in the absence of detailed distribution information. However, dung beetles appear to be well represented in established conservation areas. This apparent contradiction could be ascribed to anthropogenic transformation, successful conservation efforts, the presence of dung generalists and reserve-biased or mesic-biased dung beetle collection efforts. It is suggested that all of the above contribute to the observed pattern to varying degrees. The implications of selecting areas that are either rich in species, contain rare species or contain taxonomically distinct species from a group whose taxonomy is well known but for which inadequate distribution data exist are explored. Best practice, in the face of inadequate data, appears to revolve around a subtle interplay between advantages and disadvantages associated with data interpolation techniques, reserve selection algorithms that use criteria more robust than database rarity (such as taxonomic distinctiveness) and the long-term economic costs of proceeding with the data at hand versus investing in biological surveys.  相似文献   

10.
  总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Aim Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species’ occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species’ survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location Coastal southern California, USA. Methods Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver‐operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross‐validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the effect of sample prevalence on model estimation.  相似文献   

11.
  总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
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Priority areas for in situ conservation are an unavoidable consequence of competition with other land uses, although they are certainly not to be seen as the only areas of value for conservation. In 1990 an international workshop was convened in Manaus, Brazil, to identify priority areas within Amazonia by committee (Workshop-90). A substantial part of the data for this assessment came from five plant families recorded for the Flora Neotropica. We compare the success of the Workshop-90 method in representing these plant species with the results of using a simple quantitative method for seeking complementary areas. The promises of quantitative methods are twofold. First, they force people to make their values explicit, which is important because priorities are dependent on the values and goals of individuals and are not universal. Second, quantitative methods can achieve representation of more of what is valued. For example, within the 90 top-priority areas (an arbitrary but convenient figure taken from Workshop-90), species representation is shown to be increased when using the complementary areas method by 83%. Simple computer implementations of this method can provide the means for fast inter-active exploration of flexibility in the many alternative area choices. This permits monitoring and review with minimum effort as new data on species and threats are acquired. On the other hand, the problem for all methods is the need for very large numbers of data, whether based on species or on any other surrogates for biodiversity, if well-informed decisions are to be made. This is not a particular problem of quantitative methods, but their explicit nature does highlight the shortcomings of data. For example, patterns in the Flora Neotropica data show effects from small samples even though these data are among the best available for any large tropical wet-forest region. Furthermore, in order to assess the longer-term consequences of area choices, quantitative methods will require many explicit local data on factors affecting viability, threat and cost.  相似文献   

14.
    
Predicting climate‐driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30‐year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography.  相似文献   

15.
    
Aim The first aim of this paper was to evaluate the distribution of the three Sterocorax species found in the Iberian Peninsula by estimating the main environmental factors that constrain their distributions. The second aim was to explore the potential importance of competitive interactions in limiting their current distributions using predictive distribution models. Location Iberian Peninsula. Methods Species presence data were collected from records in the literature and private and public collections. Ecological niche factor analysis was performed to extract pseudo‐absences (probable absences), which, together with presence data, were modelled using generalized additive models. The models were run twice. Initially we used only environmental variables, and thereafter additional spatial variables were included in order to account for spatially structured factors not accounted for in the environmental variables. Results Highly reliable distribution models were obtained for the three species, with AUC scores (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve) higher than 0.96. The addition of spatial variables to the first model significantly improved the predicted distribution of Corax (Sterocorax) globosus and Corax (Sterocorax) insidiator, by reducing their potential distribution area. In contrast, the model of Corax (Sterocorax) galicianus was not improved by the addition of a spatial term. Main conclusions Generated pseudo‐absences, such as those used in this study, helped to avoid problems of using erroneous data (false absences) in distribution records. Pseudo‐absences greatly improved the models by only selecting absences within the area with the most unfavourable environmental conditions. The importance of spatial variables to both C. (S.) globosus and C. (S.) insidiator distributions probably relates to a number of unknown factors, such as unique historical events. The absence of established populations of C. (S.) globosus north of the Ebro Valley appears to be one such historical factor. The distribution of C. (S.) galicianus only marginally overlaps with that of C. (S.) globosus, according to our environmental factor models. As this overlap is restricted it is not likely to be a result of competitive exclusion; rather, their geographical segregation seems to be environmentally mediated. The addition of spatial variables reduced the potential habitat of C. (S.) insidiator, eliminating some environmentally optimal areas from its distribution. As no environmental barrier seems apparent in this case, competitive interaction with C. (S.) globosus is a plausible hypothesis for its absence in these optimal parts of its range.  相似文献   

16.
    
Finding out biomarkers and building risk scores to predict the occurrence of survival outcomes is a major concern of clinical epidemiology, and so is the evaluation of prognostic models. In this paper, we are concerned with the estimation of the time-dependent AUC--area under the receiver-operating curve--which naturally extends standard AUC to the setting of survival outcomes and enables to evaluate the discriminative power of prognostic models. We establish a simple and useful relation between the predictiveness curve and the time-dependent AUC--AUC(t). This relation confirms that the predictiveness curve is the key concept for evaluating calibration and discrimination of prognostic models. It also highlights that accurate estimates of the conditional absolute risk function should yield accurate estimates for AUC(t). From this observation, we derive several estimators for AUC(t) relying on distinct estimators of the conditional absolute risk function. An empirical study was conducted to compare our estimators with the existing ones and assess the effect of model misspecification--when estimating the conditional absolute risk function--on the AUC(t) estimation. We further illustrate the methodology on the Mayo PBC and the VA lung cancer data sets.  相似文献   

17.
This paper investigates the distribution of species richness, rarity and endemicity of European land mammals (bats and introduced species excluded). The highest level of species richness was in Central Europe, while Southern areas had the highest rarity and endemicity scores. The distribution of richness was affected by the location of sampling points in islands and peninsulas. After excluding these sampling points, richness continued to decrease Westward suggesting the existence of a large-scale peninsular effect on mammal distribution. These patterns of continental distribution of richness, rarity and endemicity could be the result of the distribution of refuge areas in the southern Mediterranean peninsulas, and the Pleistocene advances and retreats of mammals throughout the Western Palearctic. Thus, European mammal distribution can be interpreted on the basis of two different patterns of abundance distribution in which Palearctic species reduce their abundance from central-Europe outwards, while endemic, rare species show a similar depletion in the North. It should be useful to evaluate the role of the different regions in Europe in conserving the demographic interactions between central and peripheral populations of mammal species. Given the restricted distribution and potential small size of population, these endemic species are most likely to be susceptible to anthropogenic environmental degradation.  相似文献   

18.
    
Regression analyses are central to characterization of the form and strength of natural selection in nature. Two common analyses that are currently used to characterize selection are (1) least squares–based approximation of the individual relative fitness surface for the purpose of obtaining quantitatively useful selection gradients, and (2) spline‐based estimation of (absolute) fitness functions to obtain flexible inference of the shape of functions by which fitness and phenotype are related. These two sets of methodologies are often implemented in parallel to provide complementary inferences of the form of natural selection. We unify these two analyses, providing a method whereby selection gradients can be obtained for a given observed distribution of phenotype and characterization of a function relating phenotype to fitness. The method allows quantitatively useful selection gradients to be obtained from analyses of selection that adequately model nonnormal distributions of fitness, and provides unification of the two previously separate regression‐based fitness analyses. We demonstrate the method by calculating directional and quadratic selection gradients associated with a smooth regression‐based generalized additive model of the relationship between neonatal survival and the phenotypic traits of gestation length and birth mass in humans.  相似文献   

19.
The reptile fauna of Romania comprises 23 species, out of which 12 species reach here the limit of their geographic range. We compiled and updated a national database of the reptile species occurrences from a variety of sources including our own field surveys, personal communication from specialists, museum collections and the scientific literature. The occurrence records were georeferenced and stored in a geodatabase for additional analysis of their spatial patterns. The spatial analysis revealed a biased sampling effort concentrated in various protected areas, and deficient in the vast agricultural areas of the southern part of Romania. The patterns of species richness showed a higher number of species in the warmer and drier regions, and a relatively low number of species in the rest of the country. Our database provides a starting point for further analyses, and represents a reliable tool for drafting conservation plans.  相似文献   

20.
Nineteen species of amphibians inhabit Romania, 9 of which reach their range limit on this territory. Based on published occurrence reports, museum collections and our own data we compiled a national database of amphibian occurrences. We georeferenced 26779 amphibian species occurrences, and performed an analysis of their spatial patterns, checking for hotspots and patterns of species richness. The results of spatial statistic analyses supported the idea of a biased sampling for Romania, with clear hotspots of increased sampling efforts. The sampling effort is biased towards species with high detectability, protected areas, and large cities. Future sampling efforts should be focused mostly on species with a high rarity score in order to accurately map their range. Our results are an important step in achieving the long-term goals of increasing the efficiency of conservation efforts and evaluating the species range shifts under climate change scenarios.  相似文献   

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