Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean

Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice‐obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice‐intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species‐specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice‐obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea‐ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice‐obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice‐intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models.     

Investigating the potential impacts of climate change on a marine turtle population

Recent increases in global temperatures have affected the phenology and survival of many species of plants and animals. We investigated a case study of the effects of potential climate change on a thermally sensitive species, the loggerhead sea turtle, at a breeding location at the northerly extent of the range of regular nesting in the United States. In addition to the physical limits imposed by temperature on this ectothermic species, sea turtle primary sex ratio is determined by the temperature experienced by eggs during the middle third of incubation. We recorded sand temperatures and used historical air temperatures (ATs) at Bald Head Island, NC, to examine past and predict future sex ratios under scenarios of warming. There were no significant temporal trends in primary sex ratio evident in recent years and estimated mean annual sex ratio was 58% female. Similarly, there were no temporal trends in phenology but earlier nesting and longer nesting seasons were correlated with warmer sea surface temperature. We modelled the effects of incremental increases in mean AT of up to 7.5°C, the maximum predicted increase under modelled scenarios, which would lead to 100% female hatchling production and lethally high incubation temperatures, causing reduction in hatchling production. Populations of turtles in more southern parts of the United States are currently highly female biased and are likely to become ultra‐biased with as little as 1°C of warming and experience extreme levels of mortality if warming exceeds 3°C. The lack of a demonstrable increase in AT in North Carolina in recent decades coupled with primary sex ratios that are not highly biased means that the male offspring from North Carolina could play an increasingly important role in the future viability of the loggerhead turtle in the Western Atlantic.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

Methane emissions from floodplain swamps of the Ogeechee River: long-term patterns and effects of climate change

Patterns and rates of wetland methane emissions and their sensitivity to potential climate change are critical components of the global methane cycle. In this study, we use empirical simulation models to investigate these processes in floodplain swamps of the Ogeechee River in Georgia, U.S.A. We developed statistical models that relate methane emissions to monthly climate and river flow based on field observations of methane emissions from this system made during 1987–1989. Models were then applied to observed climate and hydrograph for 1937–1989 and to simulated altered climates. Altered climates were generated from the present-day climate by changing monthly temperatures by a constant amount and/or changing monthly precipitation by a constant proportion, thus altering long-term averages and preserving year-to-year variation.Under the present-day climate regime, simulated methane emissions were variable between years and responded very strongly to changes in river discharge. The long-term average was 27 g C m^-2 yr^-1, with no significant linear trend over the model period. In the altered climate simulations, methane emissions were very sensitive to changes in precipitation amounts, with a 20% decrease in rainfall resulting in 30–43% declines in methane emissions. Predicted effects of temperature changes on methane emissions were less consistent, and were strongly dependent on assumptions made about the response of evapotranspiration to elevated temperatures. In general, hydrologic impacts of changes in evapotranspiration rates (such as may occur in response to temperature shifts) were more important than direct temperature effects on methane production.     

呼伦贝尔沙地45年来气候变化及其对生态环境的影响水

采用数理统计和对比分析方法,对近45年呼伦贝尔沙地气象观测资料和草场沙化、退化面积、植被状况等资料进行了分析。结果表明：呼伦贝尔沙地总体气候暖干化趋势显著;气温逐年升高、降水量减少、蒸发量增加和极端气候事件增多,使流动沙地面积不断增加,植被盖度下降。卫星遥感监测和全国沙漠化普查结果进一步表明,呼伦贝尔沙地的沙漠化正在扩展,生态环境正在恶化。逐年减少的大风日数和沙尘暴日数有利于该地区生态的保护与建设。20世纪80年代以来,沙区各级政府加大了对沙化的治理力度,沙地局部植被恢复较快。     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Predicting impacts of Arctic climate change: Past lessons and future challenges

General circulation models predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Arctic as the result of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Arctic ecosystems are strongly constrained by temperature, and may be expected to be markedly influenced by climate change. Perturbation experiments have been used to predict how Arctic ecosystems will respond to global climatic change, but these have often simulated individual perturbations (e.g. temperature alone) and have largely been confined to the short Arctic summer. The importance of interactions between global change variables (e.g. CO₂, temperature, precipitation) has rarely been examined, and much experimentation has been short-term. Similarly, very little experimentation has occurred in the winter when General circulation models predict the largest changes in climate will take place. Recent studies have clearly demonstrated that Arctic ecosystems are not dormant during the winter and thus much greater emphasis on experimentation during this period is essential to improve our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to global change. This, combined with more long-term experimentation, direct observation of natural vegetation change (e.g. at the tundra/taiga boundary) and improvements in model predictions is necessary if we are to understand the future nature and extent of Arctic ecosystems in a changing climate.     

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism–body mass and consumption–body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species'' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.     

Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries

Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters (subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted (negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence (in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.     

Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem

In this article, we review evidence of how climate change has already resulted in clearly discernable changes in marine Arctic ecosystems. After defining the term ‘footprint’ and evaluating the availability of reliable baseline information we review the published literature to synthesize the footprints of climate change impacts in marine Arctic ecosystems reported as of mid‐2009. We found a total of 51 reports of documented changes in Arctic marine biota in response to climate change. Among the responses evaluated were range shifts and changes in abundance, growth/condition, behaviour/phenology and community/regime shifts. Most reports concerned marine mammals, particularly polar bears, and fish. The number of well‐documented changes in planktonic and benthic systems was surprisingly low. Evident losses of endemic species in the Arctic Ocean, and in ice algae production and associated community remained difficult to evaluate due to the lack of quantitative reports of its abundance and distribution. Very few footprints of climate change were reported in the literature from regions such as the wide Siberian shelf and the central Arctic Ocean due to the limited research effort made in these ecosystems. Despite the alarming nature of warming and its strong potential effects in the Arctic Ocean the research effort evaluating the impacts of climate change in this region is rather limited.     

Geographic variation in growth response of Douglas‐fir to interannual climate variability and projected climate change

We used 179 tree ring chronologies of Douglas‐fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] from the International Tree‐Ring Data Bank to study radial growth response to historical climate variability. For the coastal variety of Douglas‐fir, we found positive correlations of ring width with summer precipitation and temperature of the preceding winter, indicating that growth of coastal populations was limited by summer dryness and that photosynthesis in winter contributed to growth. For the interior variety, low precipitation and high growing season temperatures limited growth. Based on these relationships, we chose a simple heat moisture index (growing season temperature divided by precipitation of the preceding winter and current growing season) to predict growth response for the interior variety. For 105 tree ring chronologies or 81% of the interior samples, we found significant linear correlations with this heat moisture index, and moving correlation functions showed that the response was stable over time (1901–1980). We proceeded to use those relationships to predict regional growth response under 18 climate change scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with unexpected results: for comparable changes in heat moisture index, the most southern and outlying populations of Douglas‐fir in Mexico showed the least reduction in productivity. Moderate growth reductions were found in the southern United States, and strongly negative response in the central Rocky Mountains. Growth reductions were further more pronounced for high than for low elevation populations. Based on regional differences in the slope of the growth–climate relationship, we propose that southern populations are better adapted to drought conditions and could therefore contain valuable genotypes for reforestation under climate change. The results support the view that climate change may impact species not just at the trailing edges but throughout their range due to genetic adaptation of populations to local environments.     

Pacific Ocean climate change: atmospheric forcing, ocean circulation and ecosystem response

A major climate change event that affected atmospheric forcing, ocean circulation and ecosystem structure of the Pacific Ocean began in the mid-1970s. Changes in biomass, and presumably productivity, of the lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and Zooplankton) were directly attributed to this event. It also appears that some individual species at higher trophic levels were influenced, but cause-and-effect relationships are more difficult to document at the species level. Recent work shows that at least five major pelagic ecosystems responded to this event, but in different ways, and both increases and decreases in biomass were seen. Changes of this magnitude are well documented in the paleo-oceanographic record. However, it remains to be determined to what extent the changes were caused by natural cycles versus anthropogenic change (global warming).     

Direct and indirect climate forcing in a multi-species marine system

Interactions within and between species complicate quantification of climate effects, by causing indirect, often delayed, effects of climate fluctuations and compensation of mortality. Here we identify direct and indirect climate effects by analysing unique Russian time-series data from the Norwegian Sea–Barents Sea ecosystem on the first life stages of cod, capelin, herring and haddock, their predators, competitors and zooplanktonic prey. By analysing growth and survival from one life stage to the next (eggs–larvae–juveniles–recruits), we find evidence for both bottom-up, direct and top-down effects of climate. Ambient zooplankton biomass predicts survival of all species, whereas ambient temperature mainly affects survival through effects on growth. In warm years, all species experienced improved growth and feeding conditions. Cohorts born following a warm year will, however, experience increased predation and competition because of increased densities of subadult cod and herring, leading to delayed climate effects. While climate thus affects early growth and survival through several mechanisms, only some of the identified mechanisms were found to be significant predictors of population growth. In particular, our findings exemplify that climate impacts are barely propagated to later life stages when density dependence is strong.     

Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems

Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates.     

A method for experimental heating of intact soil profiles for application to climate change experiments

A new system for simulating future belowground temperature increases was conceived, simulated, constructed and tested in a temperate deciduous forest in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. The new system uses low‐wattage, 3 m deep heaters installed around the circumference of a defined soil volume. The heaters add the necessary energy to achieve a set soil temperature differential within the treatment area and add exterior energy inputs equal to those, which might be lost from lateral heat conduction. The method, which was designed to work in conjunction with aboveground heated chambers, requires only two control sensor positions one for aboveground air temperatures at 1 m and another for belowground temperatures at 0.8 m. The method is capable of achieving temperature differentials of at least +4.0±0.5 °C for soils to a measured depth of ?2 m. These +4 °C differential soil temperatures were sustained in situ throughout 2009, and both diurnal and seasonal cycles at all soil depths were retained using this simple heating approach. Measured mean energy inputs required to sustain the target heating level of +4 °C over the 7.1 m² target area were substantial for aboveground heating (21.1 kW h day^?1 m^?2), but 16 times lower for belowground heaters (1.3 kW h day^?1 m^?2). Observations of soil CO₂ efflux from the surface of the target soil volumes showed CO₂ losses throughout 2009 that were elevated above the temperature response curve that have been reported in previous near‐surface soil warming studies. Stimulation of biological activity within previously undisturbed deep‐soil carbon stocks is the hypothesized source. Long‐term research programs may be able to apply this new heating method that captures expected future warming and temperature dynamics throughout the soil profile to address uncertainties in process‐level responses of microbial, plant and animal communities in whole, intact ecosystems.     

Elevated air temperature alters an old-field insect community in a multifactor climate change experiment

To address how multiple, interacting climate drivers may affect plant–insect community associations, we sampled insects that naturally colonized a constructed old‐field plant community grown for over 2 years under simultaneous CO₂, temperature, and water manipulation. Insects were sampled using a combination of sticky traps and vacuum sampling, identified to morphospecies and the insect community with respect to abundance, richness, and evenness quantified. Individuals were assigned to four broad feeding guilds in order to examine potential trophic level effects. Although there were occasional effects of CO₂ and water treatment, the effects of warming on the insect community were large and consistent. Warming significantly increased Order Thysanoptera abundance and reduced overall morphospecies richness and evenness. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling found that only temperature affected insect community composition, while a Sørensen similarity index showed less correspondence in the insect community between temperature treatments compared with CO₂ or soil water treatments. Within the herbivore guild, elevated temperature significantly reduced richness and evenness. Corresponding reductions of diversity measures at higher trophic levels (i.e. parasitoids), along with the finding that herbivore richness was a significant predictor of parasitoid richness, suggest trophic‐level effects within the insect community. When the most abundant species were considered in temperature treatments, a small number of species increased in abundance at elevated temperature, while others declined compared with ambient temperature. Effects of temperature in the dominant insects demonstrated that treatment effects were limited to a relatively small number of morphospecies. Observed effects of elevated CO₂ concentration on whole‐community foliar N concentration did not result in any effect on herbivores, which are probably the most susceptible guild to changes in plant nutritional quality. These results demonstrate that climatic warming may alter certain insect communities via effects on insect species most responsive to a higher temperature, contributing to a change in community structure.     

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky–eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail''s body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail''s upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.     

Influence of simulated climate change and eutrophication on three‐spined stickleback populations: a large scale mesocosm experiment

1. Shallow lakes and their ectothermic inhabitants are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climatic warming. These impacts are likely to depend on nutrient loading, especially if the combination of warming and eutrophication leads to severe hypoxia. 2. To investigate effects of realistic warming and nutrient loading on a fish species with high tolerance of warming and hypoxia, we observed population changes and timing of reproduction of three‐spined sticklebacks in 24 outdoor shallow freshwater ecosystems with combinations of temperature (ambient and ambient +4 °C) and three nutrient treatments over 16 months. 3. Warming reduced stickleback population biomass by 60% (population size by 76%) and nutrient‐addition reduced biomass by about 80% (population size 95%). Nutrients and warming together resulted in extinction of the stickleback populations. These losses were mainly attributed to the increased likelihood of severe hypoxia in heated and nutrient‐addition mesocosms. 4. Warming of nutrient‐rich waters can thus have dire consequences for freshwater ectotherm populations. The loss even of a hardy fish suggests a precarious future for many less tolerant species in such eutrophic systems under current climate change predictions.     

Impact of expected climate change on mangroves

There is a consensus of scientific opinion that the activities of man will cause a significant change in the global climate over the next hundred years. The rising level of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases in the atmosphere may lead to global warming with an accompanying rise in sea-level. Mangrove ecosystems grow in the intertidal zones in tropical and sub-tropical regions and are likely to be early indicators of the effects of climate change. The best estimates of predicted climate change in the literature are presented. It is suggested that a rise in mean sea-level may be the most important factor influencing the future distribution of mangroves but that the effect will vary dramatically depending on the local rate of sea-level rise and the availability of sediment to support reestablishment of the mangroves. The predicted rise in mean air temperature will probably be of little consequence to the development of mangroves in general but it may mean that the presence of mangroves will move further north and south, though this will depend on a number of additional factors. The effect of enhanced atmospheric CO₂ on the growth of mangroves is unknown at this time but that there is some evidence that not all species of mangroves will respond similarly. The socio-economic impacts of the effects of climate on mangrove ecosystems may include increased risk of flooding, increased erosion of coast lines, saline intrusion and increased storm surges.