The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis

The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher‐order predators. Here, we compare the long‐term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice‐free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long‐term data on species’ responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds proximate to breeding locations, as well as the potential role of polynyas as future Southern Ocean refugia.     

Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean

Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice‐obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice‐intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species‐specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice‐obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea‐ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice‐obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice‐intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models.     

Investigating the potential impacts of climate change on a marine turtle population

Recent increases in global temperatures have affected the phenology and survival of many species of plants and animals. We investigated a case study of the effects of potential climate change on a thermally sensitive species, the loggerhead sea turtle, at a breeding location at the northerly extent of the range of regular nesting in the United States. In addition to the physical limits imposed by temperature on this ectothermic species, sea turtle primary sex ratio is determined by the temperature experienced by eggs during the middle third of incubation. We recorded sand temperatures and used historical air temperatures (ATs) at Bald Head Island, NC, to examine past and predict future sex ratios under scenarios of warming. There were no significant temporal trends in primary sex ratio evident in recent years and estimated mean annual sex ratio was 58% female. Similarly, there were no temporal trends in phenology but earlier nesting and longer nesting seasons were correlated with warmer sea surface temperature. We modelled the effects of incremental increases in mean AT of up to 7.5°C, the maximum predicted increase under modelled scenarios, which would lead to 100% female hatchling production and lethally high incubation temperatures, causing reduction in hatchling production. Populations of turtles in more southern parts of the United States are currently highly female biased and are likely to become ultra‐biased with as little as 1°C of warming and experience extreme levels of mortality if warming exceeds 3°C. The lack of a demonstrable increase in AT in North Carolina in recent decades coupled with primary sex ratios that are not highly biased means that the male offspring from North Carolina could play an increasingly important role in the future viability of the loggerhead turtle in the Western Atlantic.     

Methane emissions from floodplain swamps of the Ogeechee River: long-term patterns and effects of climate change

Patterns and rates of wetland methane emissions and their sensitivity to potential climate change are critical components of the global methane cycle. In this study, we use empirical simulation models to investigate these processes in floodplain swamps of the Ogeechee River in Georgia, U.S.A. We developed statistical models that relate methane emissions to monthly climate and river flow based on field observations of methane emissions from this system made during 1987–1989. Models were then applied to observed climate and hydrograph for 1937–1989 and to simulated altered climates. Altered climates were generated from the present-day climate by changing monthly temperatures by a constant amount and/or changing monthly precipitation by a constant proportion, thus altering long-term averages and preserving year-to-year variation.Under the present-day climate regime, simulated methane emissions were variable between years and responded very strongly to changes in river discharge. The long-term average was 27 g C m^-2 yr^-1, with no significant linear trend over the model period. In the altered climate simulations, methane emissions were very sensitive to changes in precipitation amounts, with a 20% decrease in rainfall resulting in 30–43% declines in methane emissions. Predicted effects of temperature changes on methane emissions were less consistent, and were strongly dependent on assumptions made about the response of evapotranspiration to elevated temperatures. In general, hydrologic impacts of changes in evapotranspiration rates (such as may occur in response to temperature shifts) were more important than direct temperature effects on methane production.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

呼伦贝尔沙地45年来气候变化及其对生态环境的影响

采用数理统计和对比分析方法,对近45年呼伦贝尔沙地气象观测资料和草场沙化、退化面积、植被状况等资料进行了分析。结果表明:呼伦贝尔沙地总体气候暖干化趋势显著;气温逐年升高、降水量减少、蒸发量增加和极端气候事件增多,使流动沙地面积不断增加,植被盖度下降。卫星遥感监测和全国沙漠化普查结果进一步表明,呼伦贝尔沙地的沙漠化正在扩展,生态环境正在恶化。逐年减少的大风日数和沙尘暴日数有利于该地区生态的保护与建设。20世纪80年代以来,沙区各级政府加大了对沙化的治理力度,沙地局部植被恢复较快。     

Adding climate change to the mix: responses of aquatic ectotherms to the combined effects of eutrophication and warming

The threat of excessive nutrient enrichment, or eutrophication, is intensifying across the globe as climate change progresses, presenting a major management challenge. Alterations in precipitation patterns and increases in temperature are increasing nutrient loadings in aquatic habitats and creating conditions that promote the proliferation of cyanobacterial blooms. The exacerbating effects of climate warming on eutrophication are well established, but we lack an in-depth understanding of how aquatic ectotherms respond to eutrophication and warming in tandem. Here, I provide a brief overview and critique of studies exploring the cumulative impacts of eutrophication and warming on aquatic ectotherms, and provide forward direction using mechanistically focused, multi-threat experiments to disentangle complex interactions. Evidence to date suggests that rapid warming will exacerbate the negative effects of eutrophication on aquatic ectotherms, but gradual warming will induce physiological remodelling that provides protection against nutrients and hypoxia. Moving forward, research will benefit from a greater focus on unveiling cause and effect mechanisms behind interactions and designing treatments that better mimic threat dynamics in nature. This approach will enable robust predictions of species responses to ongoing eutrophication and climate warming and enable the integration of climate warming into eutrophication management policies.     

Ocean iron fertilization may amplify climate change pressures on marine animal biomass for limited climate benefit

Climate change scenarios suggest that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be required to maintain global warming below 2°C, leading to renewed attention on ocean iron fertilization (OIF). Previous OIF modelling has found that while carbon export increases, nutrient transport to lower latitude ecosystems declines, resulting in a modest impact on atmospheric CO₂. However, the interaction of these CDR responses with ongoing climate change is unknown. Here, we combine global ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models to show that, while stimulating carbon sequestration, OIF may amplify climate-induced declines in tropical ocean productivity and ecosystem biomass under a high-emission scenario, with very limited potential atmospheric CO₂ drawdown. The ‘biogeochemical fingerprint’ of climate change, that leads to depletion of upper ocean major nutrients due to upper ocean stratification, is reinforced by OIF due to greater major nutrient consumption. Our simulations show that reductions in upper trophic level animal biomass in tropical regions due to climate change would be exacerbated by OIF within ~20 years, especially in coastal exclusive economic zones (EEZs), with potential implications for fisheries that underpin the livelihoods and economies of coastal communities. Any fertilization-based CDR should therefore consider its interaction with ongoing climate-driven changes and the ensuing ecosystem impacts in national EEZs.     

呼伦贝尔沙地45年来气候变化及其对生态环境的影响水

采用数理统计和对比分析方法,对近45年呼伦贝尔沙地气象观测资料和草场沙化、退化面积、植被状况等资料进行了分析。结果表明：呼伦贝尔沙地总体气候暖干化趋势显著;气温逐年升高、降水量减少、蒸发量增加和极端气候事件增多,使流动沙地面积不断增加,植被盖度下降。卫星遥感监测和全国沙漠化普查结果进一步表明,呼伦贝尔沙地的沙漠化正在扩展,生态环境正在恶化。逐年减少的大风日数和沙尘暴日数有利于该地区生态的保护与建设。20世纪80年代以来,沙区各级政府加大了对沙化的治理力度,沙地局部植被恢复较快。     

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism–body mass and consumption–body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species'' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Predicting impacts of Arctic climate change: Past lessons and future challenges

General circulation models predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Arctic as the result of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Arctic ecosystems are strongly constrained by temperature, and may be expected to be markedly influenced by climate change. Perturbation experiments have been used to predict how Arctic ecosystems will respond to global climatic change, but these have often simulated individual perturbations (e.g. temperature alone) and have largely been confined to the short Arctic summer. The importance of interactions between global change variables (e.g. CO₂, temperature, precipitation) has rarely been examined, and much experimentation has been short-term. Similarly, very little experimentation has occurred in the winter when General circulation models predict the largest changes in climate will take place. Recent studies have clearly demonstrated that Arctic ecosystems are not dormant during the winter and thus much greater emphasis on experimentation during this period is essential to improve our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to global change. This, combined with more long-term experimentation, direct observation of natural vegetation change (e.g. at the tundra/taiga boundary) and improvements in model predictions is necessary if we are to understand the future nature and extent of Arctic ecosystems in a changing climate.     

The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine

Ocean warming can drive poleward shifts of commercially important species with potentially significant economic impacts. Nowhere are those impacts greater than in the Gulf of Maine where North America's most valuable marine species, the American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards), has thrived for decades. However, there are growing concerns that regional maritime economies will suffer as monitored shallow water young‐of‐year lobsters decline and landings shift to the northeast. We examine how the interplay of ocean warming, tidal mixing, and larval behavior results in a brighter side of climate change. Since the 1980s lobster stocks have increased fivefold. We suggest that this increase resulted from a complex interplay between lobster larvae settlement behavior, climate change, and local oceanographic conditions. Specifically, postlarval sounding behavior is confined to a thermal envelope above 12°C and below 20°C. Summer thermally stratified surface waters in southwestern regions have historically been well within the settlement thermal envelope. Although surface layers are warming fastest in this region, the steep depth‐wise temperature gradient caused thermally suitable areas for larval settlement to expand only modestly. This contrasts with the northeast where strong tidal mixing prevents thermal stratification and recent ocean warming has made an expansive area of seabed more favorable for larval settlement. Recent declines in lobster settlement densities observed at shallow monitoring sites correlate with the expanded area of thermally suitable habitat associated with warmer summers. This leads us to hypothesize that the expanded area of suitable habitat may help explain strong lobster population increases in this region over the last decade and offset potential future declines. It also suggests that the fate of fisheries in a changing climate requires understanding local interaction between life stage‐specific biological thresholds and finer scale oceanographic processes.     

Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries

Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters (subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted (negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence (in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.     

Cascading effects of climate change on plankton community structure

Plankton communities account for at least half of global primary production and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Warming and acidification may alter the interaction chains in these communities from the bottom and top of the food web. Yet, the relative importance of these potentially complex interactions has not yet been quantified. Here, we examine the isolated and combined effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in phytoplankton and predator abundances in a series of factorial experiments. We find that warming directly impacts the top of the food web, but that the intermediate trophic groups are more strongly influenced by indirect effects mediated by altered top‐down interactions. Direct manipulations of predator and phytoplankton abundance reveal similar strong top‐down interactions following top predator decline. A meta‐analysis of published experiments further supports the conclusion that warming has stronger direct impacts on the top and bottom of the food web rather than the intermediate trophic groups, with important differences between freshwater and marine plankton communities. Our results reveal that the trophic effect of warming cascading down from the top of the plankton food web is a powerful agent of global change.     

Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem

In this article, we review evidence of how climate change has already resulted in clearly discernable changes in marine Arctic ecosystems. After defining the term ‘footprint’ and evaluating the availability of reliable baseline information we review the published literature to synthesize the footprints of climate change impacts in marine Arctic ecosystems reported as of mid‐2009. We found a total of 51 reports of documented changes in Arctic marine biota in response to climate change. Among the responses evaluated were range shifts and changes in abundance, growth/condition, behaviour/phenology and community/regime shifts. Most reports concerned marine mammals, particularly polar bears, and fish. The number of well‐documented changes in planktonic and benthic systems was surprisingly low. Evident losses of endemic species in the Arctic Ocean, and in ice algae production and associated community remained difficult to evaluate due to the lack of quantitative reports of its abundance and distribution. Very few footprints of climate change were reported in the literature from regions such as the wide Siberian shelf and the central Arctic Ocean due to the limited research effort made in these ecosystems. Despite the alarming nature of warming and its strong potential effects in the Arctic Ocean the research effort evaluating the impacts of climate change in this region is rather limited.     

A decade of climate change experiments on marine organisms: procedures,patterns and problems

The first decade of the new millennium saw a flurry of experiments to establish a mechanistic understanding of how climate change might transform the global biota, including marine organisms. However, the biophysical properties of the marine environment impose challenges to experiments, which can weaken their inference space. To facilitate strengthening the experimental evidence for possible ecological consequences of climate change, we reviewed the physical, biological and procedural scope of 110 marine climate change experiments published between 2000 and 2009. We found that 65% of these experiments only tested a single climate change factor (warming or acidification), 54% targeted temperate organisms, 58% were restricted to a single species and 73% to benthic invertebrates. In addition, 49% of the reviewed experiments had issues with the experimental design, principally related to replication of the main test‐factors (temperature or pH), and only 11% included field assessments of processes or associated patterns. Guiding future research by this inventory of current strengths and weaknesses will expand the overall inference space of marine climate change experiments. Specifically, increased effort is required in five areas: (i) the combined effects of concurrent climate and non‐climate stressors; (ii) responses of a broader range of species, particularly from tropical and polar regions as well as primary producers, pelagic invertebrates, and fish; (iii) species interactions and responses of species assemblages, (iv) reducing pseudo‐replication in controlled experiments; and (v) increasing realism in experiments through broad‐scale observations and field experiments. Attention in these areas will improve the generality and accuracy of our understanding of climate change as a driver of biological change in marine ecosystems.     

Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient

Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site‐dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site‐specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5–3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site‐specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north–south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing‐season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual responses to warming.     

Projected marine climate change: effects on copepod oxidative status and reproduction

Zooplankton are an important link between primary producers and fish. Therefore, it is crucial to address their responses when predicting effects of climate change on pelagic ecosystems. For realistic community‐level predictions, several biotic and abiotic climate‐related variables should be examined in combination. We studied the combined effects of ocean acidification and global warming predicted for year 2100 with toxic cyanobacteria on the calanoid copepod, Acartia bifilosa. Acidification together with higher temperature reduced copepod antioxidant capacity. Higher temperature also decreased egg viability, nauplii development, and oxidative status. Exposure to cyanobacteria and its toxin had a negative effect on egg production but, a positive effect on oxidative status and egg viability, giving no net effects on viable egg production. Additionally, nauplii development was enhanced by the presence of cyanobacteria, which partially alleviated the otherwise negative effects of increased temperature and decreased pH on the copepod recruitment. The interactive effects of temperature, acidification, and cyanobacteria on copepods highlight the importance of testing combined effects of climate‐related factors when predicting biological responses.