Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions

We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species’ ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species’ niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12‐fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change.     

Phylogenetic relationships and ecological niche conservatism in killifish (Profundulidae) in Mesoamerica

The family Profundulidae is a group of small-sized fish species distributed between southern Mexico and Honduras, where they are frequently the only fish representatives at higher elevations in the basins where they occur. We characterized their ecological niche using different methods and metrics drawn from niche modelling and by re-examining phylogenetic relationships of a recently published molecular phylogeny of this family to gain a better understanding of its biogeographic and evolutionary history. We assessed both lines of evidence from the perspective of niche conservatism to set a foundation for discussing hypotheses about the processes underlying the distribution and evolution of the group. In fish clades where the species composition is not clear, we examined whether niche classification could be informative to discriminate groups geographically and ecologically consistent with any of the different hypotheses of valid species. The characterization of the ecological niche was carried out using the Maxent algorithm under different parameterizations and the projection of the presence on the main components of the most relevant environmental coverage, and the niche comparison was calculated with two indices (D and I), both in environmental space and in that projected geographically. With the molecular data, a species tree was generated using the *BEAST method. The comparison of these data was calculated with an age-overlap correlation test. Based on the molecular phylogeny and on niche overlap analyses, we uncovered strong evidence to support the idea that ecologically similar species are not necessarily sister species. The correlation analysis for genetic distance and niche overlap was not significant (P > 0.05). In clades with taxonomic conflicts, we only identified Profundulus oaxacae as a geographically and ecologically distinct group from P. punctatus. All the evidence considered leads us to propose that Profundulidae do not show evidence of niche conservatism and that there are reasons to consider P. oaxacae as a valid species. Our study suggests that niche divergence is a driving evolutionary force that caused the diversification and speciation processes of the Profundulidae, along with the geological and climatic events that promoted the expansion or contraction of suitable environments.     

Genetic diversity and ecological niche modelling of the restricted Recordia reitzii (Verbenaceae) from southern Brazilian Atlantic forest

Genetic diversity analyses, coupled with ecological niche modelling (ENM) of species with a restricted distribution, may provide valuable information for understanding diversification patterns in endangered areas. We analyzed the genetic diversity of Recordia reitzii, a tree restricted to the threatened and highly fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest, using three intergenic cpDNA spacers and ten microsatellite (SSR) loci. To assess the historical processes that may have influenced the distribution of extant R. reitzii populations, the current potential distributions of R. reitzii and Recordia boliviana, a closely related species, were modelled and projected onto the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. Niche divergence was quantified between these two. The cpDNA and SSR data showed a north–south pattern of the diversity distribution and structured populations, suggesting that gene flow is probably limited. According to our data, R. reitzii exhibits low genetic diversity, which may be a result of a founder or distribution‐reduction effect, narrow distribution or small population size. The ecological niche models showed a wider palaeodistribution during the LIG and a retraction during the LGM for both species. Tests of niche divergence and conservatism indicated that bioclimatic factors might have influenced the diversification of these Recordia species. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176 , 332–348.     

Phylogeography of a widespread small carnivore,the western spotted skunk (Spilogale gracilis) reveals temporally variable signatures of isolation across western North America

We analyzed phylogeographic patterns in the western spotted skunk, Spilogale gracilis Merriam, 1890 (Carnivora: Mephitidae) in relation to historical events associated with Pre‐Pleistocene Divergence (PPD) and Quaternary climate change (QCC) using mitochondrial DNA from 97 individuals distributed across Western North America. Divergence times were generated using BEAST to estimate when isolation in putative refugia occurred. Patterns and timing of demographic expansion was performed using Bayesian skyline plot. Putative climatic refugia resulting from Quaternary climate change were identified using paleoecological niche modeling and divergence dates compared to major vicariant events associated with Pre‐Pleistocene conditions. We recovered three major mitochondrial clades corresponding to western North America (California, Baja, and across the Great Basin), east‐central North America (Texas, central Mexico, New Mexico), and southwestern Arizona/northwestern Mexico. Time to most recent common ancestor for S. gracilis occurred ~1.36 Ma. Divergence times for each major clade occurred between 0.25 and 0.12 Ma, with signature of population expansion occurring 0.15 and 0.10 Ma. Ecological niche models identified three potential climatic refugia during the Last Interglacial, (1) west coast of California and Oregon, (2) northwestern Mexico, and (3) southern Texas/northeastern Mexico as well as two refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum, (1) western USA and (2) southern Texas/northeastern Mexico. This study supports PPD in shaping species‐level diversity compared to QCC‐driven changes at the intraspecific level for Spilogale, similar to the patterns reported for other small mammals (e.g., rodents and bats). Phylogeographic patterns also appear to have been shaped by both habitat and river vicariance, especially across the desert southwest. Further, continuing climate change during the Holocene coupled with anthropogenic modifications during the Anthropocene appears to be removing both of these barriers to current dispersal of western spotted skunks.     

Phylogeography and ecological niche modeling reveal evolutionary history of Leiolepis ocellata (Squamata,Leiolepidae)

Leiolepis ocellata is a lizard species distributing in topographically diverse habitats in northern Thailand. To explore its evolutionary history, 113 samples of L. ocellata were collected from 11 localities covering its distributional range in northern Thailand, and sequenced for mtDNA fragments (Cyt b and ND2). Pairwise comparisons across sampling localities yielded significant genetic differentiation (F _ST and Jost''s D) but no clear pattern of isolation by distance could be demonstrated based on the Mantel test. Phylogenetic and network analyses highlighted six haplogroups. Their divergence times were estimated to occur during the Pleistocene, much more recent than major orogenic events affecting northern Thailand. Instead, the results suggested that lineage divergences, of particularly eastern and western haplogroups of the region, coincided with the major rivers in the region (Yom river and Ping river, respectively), indicating vicariance in response to riverine barriers. Furthermore, ecological niche modeling suggested an expansion of suitable habitats of L. ocellata, when LGM‐liked conditions. This expansion potentially facilitated their dispersal among adjacent localities leading to lineage diversification and genetic admixture, after the riverine divergence.     

Phylogenetic niche conservatism and the evolutionary basis of ecological speciation

Phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) typically refers to the tendency of closely related species to be more similar to each other in terms of niche than they are to more distant relatives. This has been implicated as a potential driving force in speciation and other species‐richness patterns, such as latitudinal gradients. However, PNC has not been very well defined in most previous studies. Is it a pattern or a process? What are the underlying endogenous (e.g. genetic) and exogenous (e.g. ecological) factors that cause niches to be conserved? What degree of similarity is necessary to qualify as PNC? Is it possible for the evolutionary processes causing niches to be conserved to also result in niche divergence in different habitats? Here, we revisit these questions, codifying a theoretical and operational definition of PNC as a mechanistic evolutionary process resulting from several factors. We frame this both from a macroevolutionary and population‐genetic perspective. We discuss how different axes of physical (e.g. geographic) and environmental (e.g. climatic) heterogeneity interact with the fundamental process of PNC to produce different outcomes of ecological speciation. We also review tests for PNC, and suggest ways that these could be improved or better utilized in future studies. Ultimately, PNC as a process has a well‐defined mechanistic basis in organisms, and future studies investigating ecological speciation would be well served to consider this, and frame hypothesis testing in terms of the processes and expected patterns described herein. The process of PNC may lead to patterns where niches are conserved (more similar than expected), constrained (divergent within a limited subset of available niches), or divergent (less similar than expected), based on degree of phylogenetic relatedness between species.     

Genetic panmixia within a narrow contact zone between chromosomally and ecologically distinct black fly sibling species (Diptera: Simuliidae)

Hybrid zones are windows into the speciation process, and their study can give clues into the maintenance and breakdown of species boundaries. Using both genetic and ecological tools, we investigate lineage diversification across a contact zone characterized by chromosome rearrangements. We show that black fly sibling species, Simulium arcticum sensu stricto (s.s.) and Simulium saxosum, lack genetic differentiation at both microsatellite and mtDNA loci in allopatry and sympatry, as well as exhibit high levels of gene flow and continuous chromosome variation in sympatry. Furthermore, hybrid frequencies at the contact zone are similar to those seen between races, rather than species. In contrast, S. arcticum s.s. and S. saxosum maintain ecological differences and distinct habitat associations ‐ the contact zone situated at the margin of suitable habitat for each sibling species. Moreover, gene flow occurs only in a narrow band along an ecological transition. Except for the contact zone, S. arcticum s.s. and S. saxosum hybrids do not occur elsewhere within the sibling species' ranges. Although S. arcticum s.s. and S. saxosum maintain the potential to interbreed freely, we conclude that habitat associations and, perhaps, chromosome systems prevent expansion of ranges and assimilation of lineages.     

Phylogeography and ecological niche modeling unravel the evolutionary history of the African green toad,Bufotes boulengeri boulengeri (Amphibia: Bufonidae), through the Quaternary

Recent integration of ecological niche models in phylogeographic studies is improving our understanding of the processes structuring genetic variation across landscapes. Previous studies on the amphibian Bufotes boulengeri boulengeri uncovered a surprisingly weak intraspecific differentiation across the Maghreb region. We widely sampled this species from Morocco to Egypt and sequenced one nuclear and three mitochondrial (mtDNA) genes to determine the level of genetic variability across its geographic range. We evaluated these data with ecological niche modeling to reveal its evolutionary history in response to climate change during the Quaternary. Our results highlight some mtDNA phylogeographic structure within this species, with one haplogroup endemic to coastal Morocco, and one haplogroup widely distributed throughout North Africa. No or little genetic differentiation is observed between isolated populations from the Hoggar Mountains, the Sabha district and the islands of Kerkennah and Lampedusa, compared to others populations. This can be explained by the expansion of the distribution range of B. b. boulengeri during glacial periods. This might have facilitated the species’ dispersal and subsequent gene flow between most North African localities.     

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis.     

Genetic and ecological structure of Hafnia alvei in Australia

Multilocus enzyme electrophoresis of 161 Hafnia alvei isolates from 158 hosts and 3 water column samples collected in Australia revealed that this species consists of two genetically distinct groups. The two groups of H. alvei differed significantly in their genetic structure and host distribution. The taxonomic class of the host but not geographic locality explained a significant proportion of the observed genetic and biochemical variation among strains within each genetic group.     

Combining phylogenetic and ecological niche modeling approaches to determine distribution and historical biogeography of Black Hills mountain snails (Oreohelicidae)

We aim to show how a combination of molecular systematics and ecological niche modelling approaches can be used to test historical biogeographical hypotheses for species of conservation concern. We focus on the land snail genus Oreohelix (Oreohelicidae), a group found throughout the Rocky Mountains. In addition to its larger distribution, a group of Oreohelix is also found in the Black Hills of Wyoming and South Dakota, an isolated, easternmost extension of the Rocky Mountains. We determine the number, distribution, and relationships of Black Hills Oreohelicids, which are a current conservation concern due to their fragmented distribution. We compared Black Hills groups to those in the main part of the Rockies to test historical biogeographical patterns that explain current diversity. We collected mtDNA data (COI and 12S sequences) from multiple populations of Oreohelix throughout the Black Hills and in adjacent populations in the Rocky Mountains to construct phylogenetic hypotheses. To determine whether favourable environmental conditions currently exist between the Black Hills and the north-eastern Rocky Mountains, we used DesktopGARP to generate an ecological niche model for distinct lineages discovered in the molecular phylogenetic analysis. Results show that all Black Hills populations are likely Oreohelix cooperi and that little genetic differentiation exists within this clade. In addition, Black Hills groups are genetically similar or identical to populations found in the Judith Mountains and Bighorn Mountains (north-eastern Rockies). Ecological niche models show that suitable environmental conditions may exist between eastern Rockies and Black Hills O. cooperi samples. Taken together, the phylogenetic and niche model data, along with the low vagility of the snails, support passive long-distance dispersal as a likely explanation for current arrangement of biodiversity.     

Genetic admixture in multidimensional environmental space: asymmetrical niche similarity promotes gene flow in armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus)

We unite genetic data with a robust test of niche divergence to test the hypothesis that patterns of gene flow between two lineages of the nine-banded armadillo are influenced by their climatic niches. We collected Geographical Information System (GIS) data on climate using locality information from 111 individuals from two lineages that had associated genetic material. We tested whether niches of these lineages were more conserved or divergent than the background environments of their geographic ranges and found evidence for niche conservatism on two axes and no evidence for divergence on any axis. To address the role of niche similarity in gene flow, we genotyped the 111 individuals at five microsatellite loci and tested whether admixed individuals tended to be located in parts of multidimensional environmental space (E-space) shared between the two lineages. We observed an asymmetrical pattern of overlap, in which the West lineage's E-space was almost completely included inside East lineage's E-space. Genetic admixture levels were significantly higher in the West lineage and, for both lineages, in shared portions of E-space. This suggests that niche similarity can facilitate gene flow among disjunct groups with moderate-to-good dispersal capabilities, contrasting with the prevailing view of niche conservatism as a diversifying force.     

Division within the North American boreal forest: Ecological niche divergence between the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. minimus)

Sister species that diverged in allopatry in similar environments are expected to exhibit niche conservatism. Using ecological niche modeling and a multivariate analysis of climate and habitat data, I test the hypothesis that the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. mimimus), sister species that breed in the North American boreal forest, show niche conservatism. Three tree species that are important components of breeding territories of both thrush species were combined with climatic variables to create niche models consisting of abiotic and biotic components. Abiotic‐only, abiotic+biotic, and biotic‐only models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) criterion. Abiotic+biotic models had higher AUC scores and did not over‐project thrush distributions compared to abiotic‐only or biotic‐only models. From the abiotic+biotic models, I tested for niche conservatism or divergence by accounting for the differences in the availability of niche components by calculating (1) niche overlap from ecological niche models and (2) mean niche differences of environmental values at occurrence points. Niche background similarity tests revealed significant niche divergence in 10 of 12 comparisons, and multivariate tests revealed niche divergence along 2 of 3 niche axes. The Bicknell's Thrush breeds in warmer and wetter regions with a high abundance of balsam fir (Abies balsamea), whereas Gray‐cheeked Thrush often co‐occurs with black spruce (Picea mariana). Niche divergence, rather than conservatism, was the predominant pattern for these species, suggesting that ecological divergence has played a role in the speciation of the Bicknell's Thrush and Gray‐cheeked Thrush. Furthermore, because niche models were improved by the incorporation of biotic variables, this study validates the inclusion of relevant biotic factors in ecological niche modeling to increase model accuracy.     

High invasion potential of Hydrilla verticillata in the Americas predicted using ecological niche modeling combined with genetic data

Ecological niche modeling is an effective tool to characterize the spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, and it is especially useful for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species. The widespread submerged plant Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) has an obvious phylogeographical pattern: Four genetic lineages occupy distinct regions in native range, and only one lineage invades the Americas. Here, we aimed to evaluate climatic niche conservatism of hydrilla in North America at the intraspecific level and explore its invasion potential in the Americas by comparing climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. Niche shift was found in the invasion process of hydrilla in North America, which is probably mainly attributed to high levels of somatic mutation. Dramatic changes in range expansion in the Americas were predicted in the situation of all four genetic lineages invading the Americas or future climatic changes, especially in South America; this suggests that there is a high invasion potential of hydrilla in the Americas. Our findings provide useful information for the management of hydrilla in the Americas and give an example of exploring intraspecific climatic niche to better understand species invasion.     

Extending ecological niche models to the past 120 000 years corroborates the lack of strong phylogeographic structure in the Crested Drongo (Dicrurus forficatus forficatus) on Madagascar

We conduct a phylogeographic study of the Crested Drongo (Dicrurus forficatus forficatus), a broadly distributed bird species on Madagascar. We first determined the demographic and spatial pattern inferred from mitochondrial and nuclear data, and then compared these results with predictions from a present to 0.120‐Myr‐old reconstruction of the spatial dynamics of the range of D. f. forficatus on Madagascar, enabling putative areas of stability (lineage persistence) to be detected. Weak genetic structure along an east–west pattern and comparatively low genetic diversity were recovered, with strong evidence of population expansion found at all ten loci sampled. The palaeoclimatic distribution models over the past 0.120 Myr suggest the presence of extensive areas of suitable climate in the east and west for the species since its colonization of Madagascar, a result in strong concordance with the spatial and genetic signal derived from our multilocus data set. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London     

When east meets west: population structure of a high-latitude resident species,the boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus)

The population genetic structure of northern boreal species has been strongly influenced both by the Quaternary glaciations and the presence of contemporary barriers, such as mountain ranges and rivers. We used a combination of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), nuclear microsatellites and spatial distribution modelling to study the population genetic structure of the boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), a resident passerine, and to investigate whether historical or contemporary barriers have influenced this northern species. MtDNA data showed evidence of eastern and western groups, with secondary admixture occurring in central Canada. This suggests that the boreal chickadee probably persisted in multiple glacial refugia, one in Beringia and at least one in the east. Palaeo-distribution modelling identified suitable habitat in Beringia (Alaska), Atlantic Canada and the southern United States, and correspond to divergence dates of 60–96 kya. Pairwise F_ST values for both mtDNA and microsatellites were significant for all comparisons involving Newfoundland, though mtDNA data suggest a more recent separation. Furthermore, unlike mtDNA data, nuclear data support population connectivity among the continental populations, possibly due to male-biased dispersal. Although both are significant, the isolation-by-distance signal is much stronger for mtDNA (r²=0.51) than for microsatellites (r²=0.05), supporting the hypothesis of male-biased dispersal. The population structure of the boreal chickadee was influenced by isolation in multiple refugia and contemporary barriers. In addition to geographical distance, physical barriers such as the Strait of Belle Isle and northern mountains in Alaska are restricting gene flow, whereas the Rocky Mountains in the west are a porous barrier.     

Lack of congruence of genetic and niche divergence in Podarcis hispanicus complex

Niche divergence among closely related lineages can be informative on the ecological and evolutionary processes involved in differentiation, particularly in the case of cryptic species complexes. Here we compared phylogenetic relationships and niche similarity between pairs of lineages included in the Podarcis hispanicus complex to examine patterns of niche divergence and its role in the organization of current diversity patterns, as allopatric, parapatric, and sympatric lineages occur in the Western Mediterranean Basin. First, we used ecological niche models to characterize the realized climatic niche of each Podarcis hispanicus complex lineage based on topographic and climatic variables, to identify important variables, and to test for niche conservatism or divergence between pairs of lineages. Variables related to precipitation generally exhibited the highest contribution to niche models, highlighting the importance of rainfall levels in shaping distributions of Podarcis wall lizards. We found that most forms have significant differences in realized climatic niches that do not follow the pattern of mitochondrial divergence. These results lend support to the hypothesis that genetic divergence across Podarcis hispanicus complex most likely occurred in allopatric conditions, mostly with significant niche divergence. Competition after secondary contact is also suggested by the common occurrence of niche overlap between lineages that exhibit strictly parapatric distribution. The almost continuous distribution of Podarcis lizards in the study area appears to be a result of a combination of complementary suitable niches and competition, which seem two important mechanisms limiting geographic distributions and restricting the existence of extensive contact zones.     

Complex patterns of environmental niche evolution in Iberian columbines (genus Aquilegia,Ranunculaceae)

Aims This study explores the patterns of niche differentiation in a group of seven closely related columbines (genus Aquilegia, Ranunculaceae) from the Iberian Peninsula. Populations of these columbines are subject to complex patterns of divergent selection across environments, which partly explain the taxonomic structure of the group. This suggests the hypothesis that niche divergence must have occurred along the process of diversification of the group.Methods We used MaxEnt to build environmental niche models of seven subspecies belonging to the three species of Aquilegia present in the Iberian Peninsula. From these models, we compared the environmental niches through two different approaches: ENMtools and multivariate methods.Important findings MaxEnt distributions conformed closely to the actual distribution of the study taxa. ENMtools methods failed to uncover any clear patterns of niche differentiation or conservatism in Iberian columbines. Multivariate analyses indicate the existence of differentiation along altitudinal gradients and along a gradient of climatic conditions determined by the summer precipitation and temperatures. However, climatic conditions related to winter temperature and precipitation, as well as soil properties, were equally likely to show conservatism or divergence. The complex patterns of niche evolution we found suggest that Iberian Columbines have not been significantly constrained by forces of niche conservatism, so they could respond adaptively to the fast and profound climate changes in the Iberian Peninsula through the glacial cycles of the Pleistocene.