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Correlative ecological niche models are increasingly used to estimate potential distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) for biogeographical research. In the case of presence‐background/pseudoabsences techniques, cold environments that are poorly represented in existing geography can complicate the process of model calibration and transfer into more extreme cold environments that were very common during the LGM (non‐analog conditions). This may lead to biologically unrealistic estimations. Using one cold‐adapted North American mammal, we explore a real scenario to better understand the effect of restricting the range of environmental conditions over which niche models are calibrated and then transferred to LGM conditions. We performed two sets of experiments in Maxent: 1) we calibrated models in the context of only present‐day climate conditions, which is the most common practice, and compared predictions under LGM conditions based on two extrapolation methods (clamping versus unconstrained); 2) we calibrated single models using both present‐day and LGM conditions as part of the same background in order to include more extreme environments in the model calibration. Our experiments led to dramatically different estimates of species’ potential distributions, showing notable differences with respect to latitudinal and elevational shifts during the LGM. Models calibrated using present‐day climates yielded biologically unrealistic estimations, suggesting that species survived in the glaciers during the LGM. Even more unrealistic estimations were achieved when clamping was enforced as the method to extrapolate. Models calibrated in the context of both modern and past climates reduced the required degree of extrapolation and allowed more realistic potential distributions, suggesting that the species avoided extremely cold conditions during the LGM. This study alerts to the possibility of obtaining implausible potential distributions during the LGM due to restricted background datasets and offers recommendations that should promote better strategies to estimate distributional changes during glaciations. 相似文献
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Adam W. Ferguson Molly M. McDonough Gema I. Guerra Margaret Rheude Jerry W. Dragoo Loren K. Ammerman Robert C. Dowler 《Ecology and evolution》2017,7(12):4229-4240
We analyzed phylogeographic patterns in the western spotted skunk, Spilogale gracilis Merriam, 1890 (Carnivora: Mephitidae) in relation to historical events associated with Pre‐Pleistocene Divergence (PPD) and Quaternary climate change (QCC) using mitochondrial DNA from 97 individuals distributed across Western North America. Divergence times were generated using BEAST to estimate when isolation in putative refugia occurred. Patterns and timing of demographic expansion was performed using Bayesian skyline plot. Putative climatic refugia resulting from Quaternary climate change were identified using paleoecological niche modeling and divergence dates compared to major vicariant events associated with Pre‐Pleistocene conditions. We recovered three major mitochondrial clades corresponding to western North America (California, Baja, and across the Great Basin), east‐central North America (Texas, central Mexico, New Mexico), and southwestern Arizona/northwestern Mexico. Time to most recent common ancestor for S. gracilis occurred ~1.36 Ma. Divergence times for each major clade occurred between 0.25 and 0.12 Ma, with signature of population expansion occurring 0.15 and 0.10 Ma. Ecological niche models identified three potential climatic refugia during the Last Interglacial, (1) west coast of California and Oregon, (2) northwestern Mexico, and (3) southern Texas/northeastern Mexico as well as two refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum, (1) western USA and (2) southern Texas/northeastern Mexico. This study supports PPD in shaping species‐level diversity compared to QCC‐driven changes at the intraspecific level for Spilogale, similar to the patterns reported for other small mammals (e.g., rodents and bats). Phylogeographic patterns also appear to have been shaped by both habitat and river vicariance, especially across the desert southwest. Further, continuing climate change during the Holocene coupled with anthropogenic modifications during the Anthropocene appears to be removing both of these barriers to current dispersal of western spotted skunks. 相似文献
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Xing‐Xing Xu Fang‐Yun Cheng Li‐Ping Peng Yan‐Qiang Sun Xian‐Ge Hu San‐Yuan Li Hong‐Li Xian Kai‐Hua Jia Richard J. Abbott Jian‐Feng Mao 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(13):7528-7548
Determining the factors promoting speciation is a major task in ecological and evolutionary research and can be aided by phylogeographic analysis. The Qinling–Daba Mountains (QDM) located in central China form an important geographic barrier between southern subtropical and northern temperate regions, and exhibit complex topography, climatic, and ecological diversity. Surprisingly, few phylogeographic analyses and studies of plant speciation in this region have been conducted. To address this issue, we investigated the genetic divergence and evolutionary histories of three closely related tree peony species (Paeonia qiui, P. jishanensis, and P. rockii) endemic to the QDM. Forty populations of the three tree peony species were genotyped using 22 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers (nSSRs) and three chloroplast DNA sequences to assess genetic structure and phylogenetic relationships, supplemented by morphological characterization and ecological niche modeling (ENM). Morphological and molecular genetic analyses showed the three species to be clearly differentiated from each other. In addition, coalescent analyses using DIYABC conducted on nSSR variation indicated that the species diverged from each other in the late Pleistocene, while ecological niche modeling (ENM) suggested they occupied a larger area during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than at present. The combined genetic evidence from nuclear and chloroplast DNA and the results of ENM indicate that each species persisted through the late Pleistocene in multiple refugia in the Qinling, Daba, and Taihang Mountains with divergence favored by restricted gene flow caused by geographic isolation, ecological divergence, and limited pollen and seed dispersal. Our study contributes to a growing understanding of the origin and population structure of tree peonies and provides insights into the high level of plant endemism present in the Qinling–Daba Mountains of Central China. 相似文献
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Stefan Prost Johannes Klietmann Thijs van Kolfschoten Robert P. Guralnick Eric Waltari Klaas Vrieling Mathias Stiller Doris Nagel Gernot Rabeder Michael Hofreiter Robert S. Sommer 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(6):1865-1874
The Late Quaternary was a time of rapid climatic oscillations and drastic environmental changes. In general, species can respond to such changes by behavioral accommodation, distributional shifts, ecophenotypic modifications (nongenetic), evolution (genetic) or ultimately face local extinction. How those responses manifested in the past is essential for properly predicting future ones especially as the current warm phase is further intensified by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here, we use ancient DNA (aDNA) and morphological features in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genetic and nongenetic responses of Central European Palearctic shrews to past climatic change. We show that a giant form of shrew, previously described as an extinct Pleistocene Sorex species, represents a large ecomorph of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), which was replaced by populations from a different gene‐pool and with different morphology after the Pleistocene Holocene transition. We also report the presence of the cold‐adapted tundra shrew (S. tundrensis) in Central Europe. This species is currently restricted to Siberia and was hitherto unknown as an element of the Pleistocene fauna of Europe. Finally, we show that there is no clear correlation between climatic oscillations within the last 50 000 years and body size in shrews and conclude that a special nonanalogous situation with regard to biodiversity and food supply in the Late Glacial may have caused the observed large body size. 相似文献
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Dana H. Ikeda Tamara L. Max Gerard J. Allan Matthew K. Lau Stephen M. Shuster Thomas G. Whitham 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(1):164-176
We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species’ ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species’ niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12‐fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change. 相似文献
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I. M. Conflitti G. F. Shields R. W. Murphy D. C. Currie 《Journal of evolutionary biology》2015,28(9):1625-1640
Hybrid zones are windows into the speciation process, and their study can give clues into the maintenance and breakdown of species boundaries. Using both genetic and ecological tools, we investigate lineage diversification across a contact zone characterized by chromosome rearrangements. We show that black fly sibling species, Simulium arcticum sensu stricto (s.s.) and Simulium saxosum, lack genetic differentiation at both microsatellite and mtDNA loci in allopatry and sympatry, as well as exhibit high levels of gene flow and continuous chromosome variation in sympatry. Furthermore, hybrid frequencies at the contact zone are similar to those seen between races, rather than species. In contrast, S. arcticum s.s. and S. saxosum maintain ecological differences and distinct habitat associations ‐ the contact zone situated at the margin of suitable habitat for each sibling species. Moreover, gene flow occurs only in a narrow band along an ecological transition. Except for the contact zone, S. arcticum s.s. and S. saxosum hybrids do not occur elsewhere within the sibling species' ranges. Although S. arcticum s.s. and S. saxosum maintain the potential to interbreed freely, we conclude that habitat associations and, perhaps, chromosome systems prevent expansion of ranges and assimilation of lineages. 相似文献
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Lewis CM Tito RY Lizárraga B Stone AC 《American journal of physical anthropology》2005,127(3):351-360
Despite a long history of complex societies and despite extensive present-day linguistic and ethnic diversity, relatively few populations in Peru have been sampled for population genetic investigations. In order to address questions about the relationships between South American populations and about the extent of correlation between genetic distance, language, and geography in the region, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) hypervariable region I sequences and mtDNA haplogroup markers were examined in 33 individuals from the state of Ancash, Peru. These sequences were compared to those from 19 American Indian populations using diversity estimates, AMOVA tests, mismatch distributions, a multidimensional scaling plot, and regressions. The results show correlations between genetics, linguistics, and geographical affinities, with stronger correlations between genetics and language. Additionally, the results suggest a pattern of differential gene flow and drift in western vs. eastern South America, supporting previous mtDNA and Y chromosome investigations. 相似文献
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The population genetic structure of northern boreal species has been strongly influenced both by the Quaternary glaciations and the presence of contemporary barriers, such as mountain ranges and rivers. We used a combination of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), nuclear microsatellites and spatial distribution modelling to study the population genetic structure of the boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), a resident passerine, and to investigate whether historical or contemporary barriers have influenced this northern species. MtDNA data showed evidence of eastern and western groups, with secondary admixture occurring in central Canada. This suggests that the boreal chickadee probably persisted in multiple glacial refugia, one in Beringia and at least one in the east. Palaeo-distribution modelling identified suitable habitat in Beringia (Alaska), Atlantic Canada and the southern United States, and correspond to divergence dates of 60–96 kya. Pairwise FST values for both mtDNA and microsatellites were significant for all comparisons involving Newfoundland, though mtDNA data suggest a more recent separation. Furthermore, unlike mtDNA data, nuclear data support population connectivity among the continental populations, possibly due to male-biased dispersal. Although both are significant, the isolation-by-distance signal is much stronger for mtDNA (r2=0.51) than for microsatellites (r2=0.05), supporting the hypothesis of male-biased dispersal. The population structure of the boreal chickadee was influenced by isolation in multiple refugia and contemporary barriers. In addition to geographical distance, physical barriers such as the Strait of Belle Isle and northern mountains in Alaska are restricting gene flow, whereas the Rocky Mountains in the west are a porous barrier. 相似文献
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Angela Nava‐Bolaos Rosa A. Snchez‐Guilln Maren Wellenreuther Jesús Muoz Mnica Torres‐Pachn Rodolfo Novelo‐Gutirrez Alex Crdoba‐Aguilar 《Insect Conservation and Diversity》2019,12(5):427-436
- Climate change is a key stressor for species. Two major consequences of climate‐induced range shifts are the formation of new areas of geographic overlap (i.e. sympatry) and an increased probability of hybridisation in the de novo created contact zones.
- One method to effectively quantify the potential of hybridisation is to integrate ecological niche modelling and the propensity to hybridisation based on genetic divergence. In this paper, we have applied this methodology to predict hybridisation outcomes following different scenarios of climate change in 30 species of Argia damselflies.
- We (i) investigated how climate change may affect species’ distributions; (ii) quantified if changed distributions generate new areas of sympatry between species; (iii) calculated the propensity to hybridise based on genetic divergence between species; and (iv) integrated these data to predict the future potential of species to hybridise.
- We found that the distribution of 29 of the 30 species was affected by a change in climate which led to a general increase in sympatric overlap among species. The degree of genetic divergence among the 108 species’ combinations ranged from 0.06% to 0.36%. Based on the sympatric overlap and genetic divergence, it can be predicted that 97 of the species pairs are likely to hybridise in the future.
- Our results are useful to forecast how highly diverse and closely related groups, such as Argia damselflies, may respond to a change in climate and how this can impact the potential of species mixing under a scenario of increased global warming.
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Hadi Khoshnamvand;Somaye Vaissi;Maryam Azimi;Faraham Ahmadzadeh; 《Ecology and evolution》2024,14(8):e70105
This study explores how climate variables influenced the evolution and diversification of Neurergus newts within the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot. We use a dated phylogenetic tree and climatic niche models to analyze their evolutionary history and ecological preferences. Using genetic data from nuclear (KIAA) and mitochondrial (16s and 12s) genes, we estimate divergence times and identify four major Neurergus clades. The initial speciation event occurred approximately 11.3 million years ago, coinciding with the uplift of the Zagros and Anatolian mountains. This geological transformation isolated newt populations, likely triggering the first speciation event. By integrating potential geographic distribution with climate variables, we reconstruct ancestral niche occupancy profiles. This highlights the critical roles of temperature and precipitation in shaping Neurergus habitat preferences and distribution. We observe both phylogenetic niche conservatism and divergence, with niche divergence playing a dominant role in diversification. This research emphasizes the complex interplay of geography, climate, and ecology in speciation and the vulnerability of isolated mountain newt populations to environmental changes. 相似文献
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Salom Fabri‐Ruiz Bruno Danis Nicolas Navarro Philippe Koubbi Rmi Laffont Thomas Saucde 《Global Change Biology》2020,26(4):2161-2180
The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well‐delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so‐called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two‐step approach was developed combining species distribution modeling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modeling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO is discussed with regard to the modeled benthic ecoregions. In all, 12 benthic ecoregions were determined under present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub‐Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources for the creation of Antarctic MPAs. 相似文献
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Phylogeographic structure was determined for the yellow mongoose, Cynictis penicillata , using mtDNA RFLPs and control region sequences. The RFLP analysis revealed 13 haplotypes which showed weak geographical patterning consistent with a recent range expansion from a refugial population(s). An analysis of molecular variance ( AMOVA ) revealed no correspondence between mtDNA phylogeography and subspecies delimitation, nor between matrilines and areas characterized by a high incidence of the viverrid-type rabies, of which the yellow mongoose is the principal vector. The lack of structure was also shown by control region sequences although four of the maternal lineages shared a near-perfect 81 bp repeat. We speculate that regional hot spots of the viverrid rabies biotype reflect population density differences in the yellow mongoose that are not underscored by genetic partitioning, at least at the level of resolution provided by our analyses. 相似文献
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Surveys of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in macaque monkeys have revealed extremely high levels of intraspecific divergence among haplotypes. One consistent pattern that has emerged from these studies is that divergent haplotypes are geographically segregated so that sampling a few matrilines from a given region shows them to be identical, or a closely related subset of haplotypes. Geographically structured mtDNA variation has also been commonly observed in other taxa. In this study, haplotype variation and distribution are studied in detail within a local population of toque macaques. The results show that highly divergent haplotypes, differing by 3.1% in their nucleotide sequences, coexist in this population and that they may be spatially segregated even on this micro-geographic scale. Furthermore, these differences are maintained between social groups that exchange male migrants, and thus nuclear genes, frequently. 相似文献
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Perry G. Beasley‐Hall Timothy R. C. Lee Harley A. Rose Nathan Lo 《Journal of Biogeography》2018,45(7):1515-1528
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Alyssa M. FitzGerald 《Ecology and evolution》2017,7(14):5285-5295
Sister species that diverged in allopatry in similar environments are expected to exhibit niche conservatism. Using ecological niche modeling and a multivariate analysis of climate and habitat data, I test the hypothesis that the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. mimimus), sister species that breed in the North American boreal forest, show niche conservatism. Three tree species that are important components of breeding territories of both thrush species were combined with climatic variables to create niche models consisting of abiotic and biotic components. Abiotic‐only, abiotic+biotic, and biotic‐only models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) criterion. Abiotic+biotic models had higher AUC scores and did not over‐project thrush distributions compared to abiotic‐only or biotic‐only models. From the abiotic+biotic models, I tested for niche conservatism or divergence by accounting for the differences in the availability of niche components by calculating (1) niche overlap from ecological niche models and (2) mean niche differences of environmental values at occurrence points. Niche background similarity tests revealed significant niche divergence in 10 of 12 comparisons, and multivariate tests revealed niche divergence along 2 of 3 niche axes. The Bicknell's Thrush breeds in warmer and wetter regions with a high abundance of balsam fir (Abies balsamea), whereas Gray‐cheeked Thrush often co‐occurs with black spruce (Picea mariana). Niche divergence, rather than conservatism, was the predominant pattern for these species, suggesting that ecological divergence has played a role in the speciation of the Bicknell's Thrush and Gray‐cheeked Thrush. Furthermore, because niche models were improved by the incorporation of biotic variables, this study validates the inclusion of relevant biotic factors in ecological niche modeling to increase model accuracy. 相似文献
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David A. Prieto‐Torres Adolfo G. Navarro‐Sigüenza Diego Santiago‐Alarcon Octavio R. Rojas‐Soto 《Global Change Biology》2016,22(1):364-379
Assuming that co‐distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM‐based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate‐change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0–10.0% and 3.0–9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long‐term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem. 相似文献
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《Current biology : CB》2023,33(1):109-121.e3
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Brenna A.
McLeod
Timothy R.
Frasier
Arthur S.
Dyke
James M.
Savelle
Bradley N.
White
《Marine Mammal Science》2012,28(4):E426-E443
Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences were analyzed from 106 bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) specimens dating 471 ± 44 14C b.p. –10,290 ± 150 14C b.p. to evaluate whether historical changes in distribution and connectivity were detectable in levels of diversity and population structuring in the Central Canadian Arctic. The species has maintained levels of mtDNA diversity over 10,000 yr comparable to other nonbottlenecked large whale species. When compared to data from the Holocene East Greenland/Spitsbergen and contemporary Bering‐Chuckchi‐Beaufort populations, differentiation was low (FST≤ 0.005, ΦST≤ 0.003) and no temporal or geographical genetic structuring was evident. A combination of analyses suggests that the population has expanded over the past 30,000 14C yr. This genetic signature of expansion could result from population growth, admixture of multiple gene pools, or a combination of both scenarios. Despite known climatic change that altered bowhead distribution and led to isolation of populations, there is no detectable population structuring or change in genetic diversity during the Holocene. This may be due to long generation time, occasional population connectivity and a historically large global population. These characteristics warrant caution when interpreting contemporary bowhead whale DNA data, as it is unlikely that any population will be in mutation‐drift equilibrium. 相似文献