Inbreeding and genetic structure in the endangered Sorraia horse breed: implications for its conservation and management

The Sorraia horse is a closed breed with reduced effective population size and considered in critical maintained risk status. The breed exists in 2 main breeding populations, one in Portugal and one in Germany, with a smaller population size. A set of 22 microsatellite loci was used to examine genetic diversity and structure of the Sorraia horse breed and to compare individual inbreeding coefficient F, estimated from pedigree data, with individual heterozygosity and mean d(2). The Sorraia horse shows lower levels of microsatellite diversity when compared with other horse breeds. Due to management strategies, there are clear differences in the genetic structure of the 2 main Sorraia horse populations. Individual heterozygosity was shown to be a good estimator, used together with or as an alternative to inbreeding coefficient, in predicting fitness and evaluating the inbreeding level of the Sorraia horse. The information gathered in this study, combined with information available from previous studies, offers an important and wide information base for the future development of an effective breeding management of the Sorraia horse in order to preserve this endangered breed.     

Population and genetic outcomes 20 years after reintroducing bobcats (Lynx rufus) to Cumberland Island,Georgia USA

In 1988–1989, 32 bobcats Lynx rufus were reintroduced to Cumberland Island (CUIS), Georgia, USA, from which they had previously been extirpated. They were monitored intensively for 3 years immediately post‐reintroduction, but no estimation of the size or genetic diversity of the population had been conducted in over 20 years since reintroduction. We returned to CUIS in 2012 to estimate abundance and effective population size of the present‐day population, as well as to quantify genetic diversity and inbreeding. We amplified 12 nuclear microsatellite loci from DNA isolated from scats to establish genetic profiles to identify individuals. We used spatially explicit capture–recapture population estimation to estimate abundance. From nine unique genetic profiles, we estimate a population size of 14.4 (SE = 3.052) bobcats, with an effective population size (N _e) of 5–8 breeding individuals. This is consistent with predictions of a population viability analysis conducted at the time of reintroduction, which estimated the population would average 12–13 bobcats after 10 years. We identified several pairs of related bobcats (parent‐offspring and full siblings), but ~75% of the pairwise comparisons were typical of unrelated individuals, and only one individual appeared inbred. Despite the small population size and other indications that it has likely experienced a genetic bottleneck, levels of genetic diversity in the CUIS bobcat population remain high compared to other mammalian carnivores. The reintroduction of bobcats to CUIS provides an opportunity to study changes in genetic diversity in an insular population without risk to this common species. Opportunities for natural immigration to the island are limited; therefore, continued monitoring and supplemental bobcat reintroductions could be used to evaluate the effect of different management strategies to maintain genetic diversity and population viability. The successful reintroduction and maintenance of a bobcat population on CUIS illustrates the suitability of translocation as a management tool for re‐establishing felid populations.     

Genetic variability,management, and conservation implications of the critically endangered Brazilian pitviper Bothrops insularis

Information on demographic, genetic, and environmental parameters of wild and captive animal populations has proven to be crucial to conservation programs and strategies. Genetic approaches in conservation programs of Brazilian snakes remain scarce despite their importance for critically endangered species, such as Bothrops insularis, the golden lancehead, which is endemic to Ilha da Queimada Grande, coast of São Paulo State, Brazil. This study aims to (a) characterize the genetic diversity of ex situ and in situ populations of B. insularis using heterologous microsatellites; (b) investigate genetic structure among and within these populations; and (c) provide data for the conservation program of the species. Twelve informative microsatellites obtained from three species of the B. neuwiedi group were used to access genetic diversity indexes of ex situ and in situ populations. Low‐to‐medium genetic diversity parameters were found. Both populations showed low—albeit significant—values of system of mating inbreeding coefficient, whereas only the in situ population showed a significant value of pedigree inbreeding coefficient. Significant values of genetic differentiation indexes suggest a small differentiation between the two populations. Discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) recovered five clusters. No geographic relationship was found in the island, suggesting the occurrence of gene flow. Also, our data allowed the establishment of six preferential breeding couples, aiming to minimize inbreeding and elucidate uncertain parental relationships in the captive population. In a conservation perspective, continuous monitoring of both populations is demanded: it involves the incorporation of new individuals from the island into the captive population to avoid inbreeding and to achieve the recommended allelic similarity between the two populations. At last, we recommend that the genetic data support researches as a base to maintain a viable and healthy captive population, highly genetically similar to the in situ one, which is crucial for considering a reintroduction process into the island.     

Evidence of low within‐pair genetic relatedness in a relict population of Thorn‐tailed Rayadito despite long‐term isolation

Investigating whether mating patterns are biased in relation to kinship in isolated populations can provide a better understanding of the occurrence of inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in wild populations. Here, we report on the genetic relatedness (r) among breeding pairs in a relict population of Thorn‐tailed Rayadito (Aphrastura spinicauda) in north‐central Chile that has experienced a long‐term history of isolation. We used simulations based on 8 years of data to assess whether mating is random with respect to relatedness. We found that mean and median population values of pair relatedness tended to be lower than randomly generated values, suggesting that mating is not random with respect to kinship. We hypothesize that female‐biased dispersal is the main mechanism reducing the likelihood of mating among kin, and that the proportion of related pairs (i.e., r > 0.125) in the study population (25%) would presumably be higher in the absence of sex‐biased dispersal. The occurrence of other mechanisms such as extra‐pair copulations, delayed breeding, and active inbreeding avoidance through kin discrimination cannot be dismissed and require further study.     

Vital rates of two small populations of brown bears in Canada and range‐wide relationship between population size and trend

Identifying mechanisms of population change is fundamental for conserving small and declining populations and determining effective management strategies. Few studies, however, have measured the demographic components of population change for small populations of mammals (<50 individuals). We estimated vital rates and trends in two adjacent but genetically distinct, threatened brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in British Columbia, Canada, following the cessation of hunting. One population had approximately 45 resident bears but had some genetic and geographic connectivity to neighboring populations, while the other population had <25 individuals and was isolated. We estimated population‐specific vital rates by monitoring survival and reproduction of telemetered female bears and their dependent offspring from 2005 to 2018. In the larger, connected population, independent female survival was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.96–1.00) and the survival of cubs in their first year was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.62–0.95). In the smaller, isolated population, independent female survival was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64–0.93) and first‐year cub survival was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.11–0.67). Reproductive rates did not differ between populations. The large differences in age‐specific survival estimates resulted in a projected population increase in the larger population (λ = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04–1.13) and population decrease in the smaller population (λ = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72–0.95). Low female survival in the smaller population was the result of both continued human‐caused mortality and an unusually high rate of natural mortality. Low cub survival may have been due to inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity common in small populations, or to limited resources. In a systematic literature review, we compared our population trend estimates with those reported for other small populations (<300 individuals) of brown bears. Results suggest that once brown bear populations become small and isolated, populations rarely increase and, even with intensive management, recovery remains challenging.     

Comparison of population genetic estimates amongst wild,F1 and F2 cultured abalone (Haliotis midae)

Haliotis midae is South Africa's most important aquaculture species. The reproduction cycle is currently not closed as many farms rely on wild‐caught broodstock for seed production. However, there is an increasing interest in genetic improvement in commercial stocks, with a growing number of producers implementing selective breeding strategies. High throughput commercial production and mass spawning make it difficult to maintain breeding records; therefore, mostly mass selection is practised. The high fecundity and unequal parental contributions also often lead to increased levels of inbreeding. This study therefore aimed to assess the genetic effects of such breeding practices on commercial populations of H. midae. Using microsatellite loci, the genetic properties of a wild, an F1 and an F2 population were estimated and compared. Although there was no significant loss of genetic diversity amongst the cultured populations in comparison with the wild progenitor population, there was low‐to‐moderate genetic differentiation between populations. Relatedness amongst the F2 population was significant, and the rate of inbreeding was high. The effective population size for the F2 (±50) was also comparatively small with respect to the wild (∞) and F1 (±470) populations. These results suggest that farms need to give caution to breeding practices beyond the first (F1) generation and aim to increase effective population sizes and minimise inbreeding to ensure long‐term genetic gain and productivity. This study also confirms the usefulness of population genetic analyses for commercial breeding and stock management in the absence of extensive pedigree records.     

Anthropogenic fragmentation increases risk of genetic decline in the threatened orchid Platanthera leucophaea

Protecting biodiversity requires an understanding of how anthropogenic changes impact the genetic processes associated with extinction risk. Studies of the genetic changes due to anthropogenic fragmentation have revealed conflicting results. This is likely due to the difficulty in isolating habitat loss and fragmentation, which can have opposing impacts on genetic parameters. The well‐studied orchid, Platanthera leucophaea, provides a rich dataset to address this issue, allowing us to examine range‐wide genetic changes. Midwestern and Northeastern United States. We sampled 35 populations of P. leucophaea that spanned the species’ range and varied in patch composition, degree of patch isolation, and population size. From these populations we measured genetic parameters associated with increased extinction risk. Using this combined dataset, we modeled landscape variables and population metrics against genetic parameters to determine the best predictors of increased extinction risk. All genetic parameters were strongly associated with population size, while development and patch isolation showed an association with genetic diversity and genetic structure. Genetic diversity was lowest in populations with small census sizes, greater urbanization pressures (habitat loss), and small patch area. All populations showed moderate levels of inbreeding, regardless of size. Contrary to expectation, we found that critically small populations had negative inbreeding values, indicating non‐random mating not typically observed in wild populations, which we attribute to selection for less inbred individuals. The once widespread orchid, Platanthera leucophaea, has suffered drastic declines and extant populations show changes in the genetic parameters associated with increased extinction risk, especially smaller populations. Due to the important correlation with risk and habitat loss, we advocate continued monitoring of population sizes by resource managers, while the critically small populations may need additional management to reverse genetic declines.     

Main roads and land cover shaped the genetic structure of a Mediterranean island wild boar population

Patterns of genetic differentiation within and among animal populations might vary due to the simple effect of distance or landscape features hindering gene flow. An assessment of how landscape connectivity affects gene flow can help guide management, especially in fragmented landscapes. Our objective was to analyze population genetic structure and landscape genetics of the native wild boar (Sus scrofa meridionalis) population inhabiting the island of Sardinia (Italy), and test for the existence of Isolation‐by‐Distance (IBD), Isolation‐by‐Barrier (IBB), and Isolation‐by‐Resistance (IBR). A total of 393 Sardinian wild boar samples were analyzed using a set of 16 microsatellite loci. Signals of genetic introgression from introduced non‐native wild boars or from domestic pigs were revealed by a Bayesian cluster analysis including 250 reference individuals belonging to European wild populations and domestic breeds. After removal of introgressed individuals, genetic structure in the population was investigated by different statistical approaches, supporting a partition into five discrete subpopulations, corresponding to five geographic areas on the island: north‐west (NW), central west (CW), south‐west (SW), north‐central east (NCE), and south‐east (SE). To test the IBD, IBB, and IBR hypotheses, we optimized resistance surfaces using genetic algorithms and linear mixed‐effects models with a maximum likelihood population effects parameterization. Landscape genetics analyses revealed that genetic discontinuities between subpopulations can be explained by landscape elements, suggesting that main roads, urban settings, and intensively cultivated areas are hampering gene flow (and thus individual movements) within the Sardinian wild boar population. Our results reveal how human‐transformed landscapes can affect genetic connectivity even in a large‐sized and highly mobile mammal such as the wild boar, and provide crucial information to manage the spread of pathogens, including the African Swine Fever virus, endemic in Sardinia.     

Monitoring and managing genetic variation in group breeding populations without individual pedigrees

The genetic management of captive populations to conserve genetic variation is currently based on analyses of individual pedigrees to infer inbreeding and kinship coefficients and values of individuals as breeders. Such analyses require that individual pedigrees are known and individual pairing (mating) can be controlled. Many species in captivity, however, breed in groups due to various reasons, such as space constraints and fertility considerations for species living naturally in social groups, and thus have no pedigrees available for the traditional genetic analyses and management. In the absence of individual pedigree, such group breeding populations can still be genetically monitored, evaluated and managed by suitable population genetics models using population level information (such as census data). This article presents a simple genetic model of group breeding populations to demonstrate how to estimate the genetic variation maintained within and among populations and to optimise management based on these estimates. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the use of the proposed model. Some issues relevant to group breeding, such as the development and robustness evaluation of the population genetics model appropriate for a particular species under specific management and recording systems and the genetic monitoring with markers, are also briefly discussed.     

Genetic signature of the natural gene pool of Tilia cordata Mill. in Lithuania: Compound evolutionary and anthropogenic effects

Tilia cordata Mill. is a valuable tree species enriching the ecological values of the coniferous‐dominated boreal forests in Europe. Following the historical decline, spreading of Tilia sp. is challenged by the elevated inbreeding and habitat fragmentation. We studied the geographical distribution of genetic diversity of Tilia cordata populations in Lithuania. We used 14 genomic microsatellite markers to genotype 543 individuals from 23 wild‐growing populations. We found that Tilia cordata retained high levels of genetic diversity (population F _IS = 0–0.15, H _o = 0.53–0.69, H _e = 0.56–0.75). AMOVA, Bayesian clustering, and Monmonier''s barrier detection indicate weak but significant differentiation among the populations (F _ST = 0.037***) into geographically interpretable clusters of (a) western Lithuania with high genetic heterogeneity but low genetic diversity, bottleneck effects, (b) relatively higher genetic diversity of Tilia cordata on rich and most soils of midland lowland, and (c) the most differentiated populations on poor soils of the coolest northeastern highland possessing the highest rare allele frequency but elevated inbreeding and bottleneck effects. Weak genetic differentiation among the Tilia cordata populations in Lithuania implies common ancestry, absence of strong adaptive gradients, and effective genetic exchange possible mediated via the riparian networks. A hypothesis on riparian networks as gene flow mediators in Tilia cordata was raised based on results of this study.     

Can effective population size estimates be used to monitor population trends of woodland bats? A case study of Myotis bechsteinii

Molecular approaches to calculate effective population size estimates (Ne) are increasingly used as an alternative to long‐term demographic monitoring of wildlife populations. However, the complex ecology of most long‐lived species and the consequent uncertainties in model assumptions means that effective population size estimates are often imprecise. Although methods exist to incorporate age structure into Ne estimations for long‐lived species with overlapping generations, they are rarely used owing to the lack of relevant information for most wild populations. Here, we performed a case study on an elusive woodland bat, Myotis bechsteinii, to compare the use of the parentage assignment Ne estimator (EPA) with the more commonly used linkage disequilibrium (LD) Ne estimator in detecting long‐term population trends, and assessed the impacts of deploying different overall sample sizes. We used genotypic data from a previously published study, and simulated 48 contrasting demographic scenarios over 150 years using the life history characteristics of this species The LD method strongly outperformed the EPA method. As expected, smaller sample sizes resulted in a reduced ability to detect population trends. Nevertheless, even the smallest sample size tested (n = 30) could detect important changes (60%–80% decline) with the LD method. These results demonstrate that genetic approaches can be an effective way to monitor long‐lived species, such as bats, provided that they are undertaken over multiple decades.     

Population differences in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) DNA methylation: Genetic drift and environmental factors

Local adaptation and phenotypic differences among populations have been reported in many species, though most studies focus on either neutral or adaptive genetic differentiation. With the discovery of DNA methylation, questions have arisen about its contribution to individual variation in and among natural populations. Previous studies have identified differences in methylation among populations of organisms, although most to date have been in plants and model animal species. Here we obtained eyed eggs from eight populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and assayed DNA methylation at 23 genes involved in development, immune function, stress response, and metabolism using a gene‐targeted PCR‐based assay for next‐generation sequencing. Evidence for population differences in methylation was found at eight out of 23 gene loci after controlling for developmental timing in each individual. However, we found no correlation between freshwater environmental parameters and methylation variation among populations at those eight genes. A weak correlation was identified between pairwise DNA methylation dissimilarity among populations and pairwise F _ST based on 15 microsatellite loci, indicating weak effects of genetic drift or geographic distance on methylation. The weak correlation was primarily driven by two genes, GTIIBS and Nkef. However, single‐gene Mantel tests comparing methylation and pairwise F _ST were not significant after Bonferroni correction. Thus, population differences in DNA methylation are more likely related to unmeasured oceanic environmental conditions, local adaptation, and/or genetic drift. DNA methylation is an additional mechanism that contributes to among population variation, with potential influences on organism phenotype, adaptive potential, and population resilience.     

Population differentiation and intraspecific genetic admixture in two Eucryptorrhynchus weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) across northern China

Increasing damage of pests in agriculture and forestry can arise both as a consequence of changes in local species and through the introduction of alien species. In this study, we used population genetics approaches to examine population processes of two pests of the tree‐of‐heaven trunk weevil (TTW), Eucryptorrhynchus brandti (Harold) and the tree‐of‐heaven root weevil (TRW), E. scrobiculatus (Motschulsky) on the tree‐of‐heaven across their native range of China. We analyzed the population genetics of the two weevils based on ten highly polymorphic microsatellite markers. Population genetic diversity analysis showed strong population differentiation among populations of each species, with F _ST ranges from 0.0197 to 0.6650 and from −0.0724 to 0.6845, respectively. Populations from the same geographic areas can be divided into different genetic clusters, and the same genetic cluster contained populations from different geographic populations, pointing to dispersal of the weevils possibly being human‐mediated. Redundancy analysis showed that the independent effects of environment and geography could account for 93.94% and 29.70% of the explained genetic variance in TTW, and 41.90% and 55.73% of the explained genetic variance in TRW, respectively, indicating possible impacts of local climates on population genetic differentiation. Our study helps to uncover population genetic processes of these local pest species with relevance to control methods.     

Breeding system of diploid sexuals within the Ranunculus auricomus complex and its role in a geographical parthenogenesis scenario

The larger distribution area of asexuals compared with their sexual relatives in geographical parthenogenesis (GP) scenarios has been widely attributed to the advantages of uniparental reproduction and polyploidy. However, potential disadvantages of sexuals due to their breeding system have received little attention so far. Here, we study the breeding system of five narrowly distributed sexual lineages of Ranunculus notabilis s.l. (R. auricomus complex) and its effects on outcrossing, inbreeding, female fitness, and heterozygosity. We performed selfing and intra‐ and interlineage crossings by bagging 481 flowers (59 garden individuals) followed by germination experiments. We compared seed set and germination rates, and related them to genetic distance and genome‐wide heterozygosity (thousands of RADseq loci). Selfings (2.5%) unveiled a significantly lower seed set compared with intra‐ (69.0%) and interlineage crossings (69.5%). Seed set of intra‐ (65%) compared to interpopulation crossings (78%) was significantly lower. In contrast, all treatments showed comparable germination rates (32%–43%). Generalized linear regressions between seed set and genetic distance revealed positive relationships in general and between lineages, and a negative one within lineages. Seed set was the main decisive factor for female fitness. Germination rates were not related to genetic distance at any level, but were positively associated with heterozygosity in interlineage crossings. Experiments confirmed full crossability and predominant outcrossing among sexual R. notabilis s.l. lineages. However, up to 5% (outliers 15%–31%) of seeds were formed by selfing, probably due to semi‐self‐compatibility in a multi‐locus gametophytic SI system. Less seed set in intrapopulation crossings, and higher seed set and germination rates from crossings of genetically more distant and heterozygous lineages (interlineage) indicate negative inbreeding and positive outbreeding effects. In GP scenarios, sexual species with small and/or isolated populations can suffer from decreased female fitness due to their breeding system. This factor, among others, probably limits range expansion of sexuals.     

Microsatellite variation and structure of 28 populations of the common wetland plant, Lychnis flos-cuculi L., in a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation is known to cause genetic differentiation between small populations of rare species and decrease genetic variation within such populations. However, common species with recently fragmented populations have rarely been studied in this context. We investigated genetic variation and its relationship to population size and geographical isolation of populations of the common plant species, Lychnis flos-cuculi L., in fragmented fen grasslands. We analysed 467 plants from 28 L. flos-cuculi populations of different sizes (60 000-54 000 flowering individuals) in northeastern Switzerland using seven polymorphic microsatellite loci. Genetic differentiation between populations is small (F(ST) = 0.022; amova; P < 0.001), suggesting that gene flow among populations is still high or that habitat fragmentation is too recent to result in pronounced differentiation. Observed heterozygosity (H(O) = 0.44) significantly deviates from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and within-population inbreeding coefficient F(IS) is high (0.30-0.59), indicating a mixed mating breeding system with substantial inbreeding in L. flos-cuculi. Gene diversity is the only measure of genetic variation which decreased with decreasing population size (R = 0.42; P < 0.05). While our results do not indicate pronounced effects of habitat fragmentation on genetic variation in the still common L. flos-cuculi, the lower gene diversity of smaller populations suggests that the species is not entirely unaffected.     

Effects of insularity on genetic diversity within and among natural populations

We conducted a quantitative literature review of genetic diversity (GD) within and among populations in relation to categorical population size and isolation (together referred to as “insularity”). Using populations from within the same studies, we were able to control for between‐study variation in methodology, as well as demographic and life histories of focal species. Contrary to typical expectations, insularity had relatively minor effects on GD within and among populations, which points to the more important role of other factors in shaping evolutionary processes. Such effects of insularity were sometimes seen—particularly in study systems where GD was already high overall. That is, insularity influenced GD in a study system when GD was high even in non‐insular populations of the same study system—suggesting an important role for the “scope” of influences on GD. These conclusions were more robust for within population GD versus among population GD, although several biases might underlie this difference. Overall, our findings indicate that population‐level genetic assumptions need to be tested rather than assumed in nature, particularly for topics underlying current conservation management practices.     

Making the most of the old age: Autumn breeding as an extra reproductive investment in older seabirds

The extrinsic and intrinsic factors affecting differing reproductive strategies among populations are central to understanding population and evolutionary ecology. To evaluate whether individual reproductive strategies responded to annual patterns in marine productivity and age‐related processes in a seabird we used a long term (2003–2013), a continuous dataset on nest occupancy and attendance at the colony by little penguins (Eudyptula minor) at Phillip Island (Victoria, Australia). We found that concurrent with a secondary annual peak of marine productivity, a secondary peak in colony attendance and nest occupancy was observed in Autumn (out of the regular breeding season in spring/summer) with individuals showing mating‐like behavior. Individuals attending this autumn peak averaged 2.5 years older than those individuals that exclusively bred during spring/summer. Rather than being a naïve response by younger and inexperienced birds misreading environmental cues, our data indicate that the autumn peak attendance is an earlier attempt to breed by older and more experienced penguins. Therefore, we provide strong support for the fundamental prediction of the life‐history theory of increasing investment in reproduction with age to maximize lifetime fitness as future survival prospects diminish and experience increases.     

Prospecting and informed dispersal: Understanding and predicting their joint eco‐evolutionary dynamics

The ability of individuals to leave a current breeding area and select a future one is important, because such decisions can have multiple consequences for individual fitness, but also for metapopulation dynamics, structure, and long‐term persistence through non‐random dispersal patterns. In the wild, many colonial and territorial animal species display informed dispersal strategies, where individuals use information, such as conspecific breeding success gathered during prospecting, to decide whether and where to disperse. Understanding informed dispersal strategies is essential for relating individual behavior to subsequent movements and then determining how emigration and settlement decisions affect individual fitness and demography. Although numerous theoretical studies have explored the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of dispersal, very few have integrated prospecting and public information use in both emigration and settlement phases. Here, we develop an individual‐based model that fills this gap and use it to explore the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of informed dispersal. In a first experiment, in which only prospecting evolves, we demonstrate that selection always favors informed dispersal based on a low number of prospected patches relative to random dispersal or fully informed dispersal, except when individuals fail to discriminate better patches from worse ones. In a second experiment, which allows the concomitant evolution of both emigration probability and prospecting, we show the same prospecting strategy evolving. However, a plastic emigration strategy evolves, where individuals that breed successfully are always philopatric, while failed breeders are more likely to emigrate, especially when conspecific breeding success is low. Embedding information use and prospecting behavior in eco‐evolutionary models will provide new fundamental understanding of informed dispersal and its consequences for spatial population dynamics.     

A novel framework for evaluating in situ breeding management strategies in endangered populations

Conservation breeding management aims to reduce inbreeding and maximize the retention of genetic diversity in endangered populations. However, breeding management of wild populations is still rare, and there is a need for approaches that provide data-driven evidence of the likelihood of success of alternative in situ strategies. Here, we provide an analytical framework that uses in silico simulations to evaluate, for real wild populations, (i) the degree of population-level inbreeding avoidance, (ii) the genetic quality of mating pairs, and (iii) the potential genetic benefits of implementing two breeding management strategies. The proposed strategies aim to improve the genetic quality of breeding pairs by splitting detrimental pairs and allowing the members to re-pair in different ways. We apply the framework to the wild population of the Critically Endangered helmeted honeyeater by combining genomic data and field observations to estimate the inbreeding (i.e., pair-kinship) and genetic quality (i.e., Mate Suitability Index) of all mating pairs for seven consecutive breeding seasons. We found no evidence of population-level inbreeding avoidance and that ~91.6% of breeding pairs were detrimental to the genetic health of the population. Furthermore, the framework revealed that neither proposed management strategy would significantly improve the genetic quality or reduce inbreeding of the mating pairs in this population. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of our analytical framework for testing the efficacy of different in situ breeding management strategies and for making evidence-based management decisions.