Gap disturbance regime and composition in the Atlantic Montane Rain Forest: the influence of topography

In the Atlantic Montane Rain Forest of south-eastern Brazil, a field study was carried out to describe the forest disturbance regime, analyse canopy gap composition and evaluate the influence of habitat parameters on gap tree species composition. We characterized canopy gaps considering the group of variables as follows: area, type and number of tree/branch falls, topographic position, soil coverage and surrounding canopy trees. Gap composition was assessed at species level by measuring all individuals inside gaps higher than one meter. Mean gap area of the 42 canopy gaps analysed was 71.9 ± 9.0 m2 (mean ± SE). Out of the studied gaps, 35.7% were created by uprooted and by snapped trees, 16.7% by dead-standing trees and 11.9% by the fall of large branches. The disturbance regime was characterized by gap openings predominantly smaller than 150 m2 and by spatial patterning related to topography. Ridges had smaller gaps and higher proportions of gaps created by branch falls; slopes had bigger gaps generally created by uprooting events. The more abundant and frequent species were shade tolerant and the more species-rich families found inside gaps did not differ from the forest as a whole. Pioneer species were rare and restricted to medium and large size classes. The Indicator Species Analysis and the Canonical Correspondence Analysis indicated gap area, topography and the percentage of soil cover by the genera Calathea and Ctenanthe were the predominant variables correlated with woody species distribution. So, topography emerged as an important issue not only to the gap disturbance regime, but also to gap colonization. In respect to the influence of gap processes on the Atlantic Montane Rain Forest regeneration, our results support the view that canopy gap events may not be working as promoters of community wide floristic shifts.     

藏东南亚高山冷杉林林隙特征与干扰状况研究

从林隙的大小结构、干扰频率、形成方式及林隙内形成木的数量特征等几个方面,对藏东南色季拉山亚高冷杉林的典型群落类型－－藓类冷杉林的林隙干扰关况进行了分析。结果表明,在冷杉林中,扩展林隙（EG）和冠空隙（CG）的面积分别占林分总面积的41．73％和14．71％;平均每年有0．82％的林分面积转化为扩展林隙,0．29％的林分面积转化为冠空隙;每年1hm^2面积上约有0．31个林隙形成;林隙的干扰周期为345年,在调查的16个林隙中,共有形成木（GM）78株,平均每个林隙中有4．88株,形成林隙最主要的方式是形成木的折倒,其次为根和枯立,主要外力作用是风,当主林层林木直径达到40－60cm、高度15－20m时,形成林隙的可能性最大;同一林隙常常受到形成木多种死亡方式的影响,且形成时期各不相同,藏东南亚高山杉林林由不同年代的多次干扰而形成。     

Forest gap formation and closure along an altitudinal gradient in Tongariro National Park,New Zealand

24 treefall gaps accumulated over a 10 year period along an altitudinal transectcovering 4.6ha on Mt. Hauhungatahi, Tongariro National Park, New Zealand were described quantitatively in terms of the area of damage (‘expanded gap’), the canopy opening (‘Tight-gap’) and the size of the root mound. Tree mortality and branch loss following cyclone Bola, 1988, were recorded. In each gap saplings were ranked by species according to their vigour. Pre-gap and post-gap vertical and horizontal branch growth rates were calculated. Effects in the subalpine forest (> 1050 m) were compared with those in the montane zone. Tree mortality was highly episodic, associated with major storms, and patchy. Falling canopy trees destroyed, on average, 1.3 additional trees (> 10 cm diameter at 1 m). About half the trees were uprooted and the remainder broken off. Uprooted angiosperm (canopy) trees frequently resprouted from their bases, gymnosperms rarely. Expanded gap area averaged 56 m² in the sub-alpine forest and 88 m² in the montane zone. Median expanded gap areas were about twice those of light gaps. Gap size frequency distribution was highly skewed. The largest gap was formed by a single Dacrydium cupressinum which destroyed six other trees creating a gap of ca. 0.03 ha. Expanded gaps, light gaps, and root mounds comprised 4.5, 2.8 and 0.1 % of the forest area in the sub-alpine zone, and 3.8, 2.5 and 0.06 % in the montane forest. These values represent 10 years of accumulation, and imply light gap ‘return times’ of 360 years for the sub-alpine and 400 years for the montane forest. These periods are in agreement with the known longevities of the canopy and emergent trees. Vertical shoot growth rate was about twice that in the horizontal plane, and both increased following gap formation. The relative increase was greatest in the subalpine forest. Using the measured growth rates it is estimated that gaps of median dimensions are filled by lateral extension growth in 31–44 yr. Saplings require longer to reach the mean canopy height and consequently require large (multiple tree) gaps or sequential gap events.     

Tree species distribution in canopy gaps and mature forest in an area of cloud forest of the Ibitipoca Range,south-eastern Brazil

The tree community of both canopy gaps and mature forest was surveyed in a 5 ha plot of cloud forest in the Ibitipoca Range, south-eastern Brazil, aiming at: (a) comparing the tree community structure of canopy gaps with that of three strata of the mature forest, and (b) relating the tree community structure of canopy gaps with environmental and biotic variables. All saplings of canopy trees with 1–5 m of height established in 31 canopy gaps found within the plot were identified and measured. Mature forest trees with dbh 3 cm were sampled in four 40×40 quadrats laid on the four soil sites recognised in the local soil catena. All surveyed trees were identified, measured and distributed into three forest strata: understorey (<5 m of height), sub-canopy (5.1–15 m) and canopy (15.1–30 m). The following variables were obtained for each gap: mode of formation, age, soil site, slope grade, size, canopy openness and abundance of bamboos and lianas. A detrended correspondence analysis indicated that the tree community structure of gaps in all soil sites was more similar to that of the mature forest understorey, suggesting that the bank of immatures plays an important role in rebuilding the forest canopy and that gap phases may be important for understorey shade-tolerant species. There was evidence of gap-dependence for establishment for only one canopy tree species. Both canonical correspondence analysis and correlation analysis demonstrated for a number of tree species that the distribution of their saplings in canopy gaps was significantly correlated with two variables: soil site and canopy openness. The future forest structure at each gap is probably highly influenced by both the present structure of the adjacent mature forest and the gap creation event.     

瓦屋山中亚热带湿性常绿阔叶林的林窗形成特征

调查了瓦屋山原生和次生的中亚热带性常绿阔叶林的林窗形成特征,并对林窗形成特征,林窗制造者的死亡方式和原因进行了探讨,结果表明,次生常绿阔叶林林窗面积均＜10m^2,1hm^2仅9个,林下更新不明显,原生林林窗密度为1hm^215个,＜40m^2的林窗占56％,＞100m^2的林窗只有4个,林窗平均面积59m^2,扩展林窗平均面积105m^2,林窗和扩展林窗总面积占被调查林分的比例分别为11．1％和19．8％,林窗大小分布表现出负指数分布,即小林窗多,大林窗少,林窗形状的变异较大,大多数因边界木的多少而成不规则的多边形,大多数林窗是多个林木死亡事件的结果,因而大多数林窗有两个或两个以上的林窗制造者,各林窗年龄大多数在10a以上,最近形成的林窗极少,估计林窗表成率是0.01.a^-1,采用样地投影调查方法可提高测定精度,便于不同调查林分结果的有效比较,常绿阔叶林林窗形成原因较为复杂,小径木的死亡是竞争被压所致,而大径的较高冠层木的死亡则可能是树木生长发育以及与地形,风等自然因子相互作用的结果。     

Regeneration in subalpine coniferous forests

Death of canopy trees when gaps are formed was studied in a subalpine coniferous forest, central Japan, which was composed ofAbies, Tsuga, Picea, Betula, andSorbus. Typhoons were considered to be the most important cause of the death of canopy trees. The degree of disturbance in each of 16 plots (20 m×20 m) was represented by the percentage of the total basal area of dead trees to that of living and dead canopy trees (disturbance magnitude; MAG). The mortality of canopy trees increased as their dbh increase in the plots of lower MAG than 90%. The mortality varied among genera, andTsuga was characterized as having lower mortality than that of the other conifers. 418 dead trees were observed. The standing dead trees made up 10.7% of the trees, the stem broken trees 46.7%, and the uprooted trees 42.2%. The stem breaking was most frequent inAbies, and the uprooting was most frequent inTsuga, Picea, andBetula. Undeveloped forests, which have the L-shaped dbh distribution, were destroyed only in high degree (70%<MAG), while developed forests were destroyed in various degrees (30%<MAG<100%). The percentage of uprooted trees in basal area decreased with the development of the forest, from 60% to 10%.     

Evaluation of secondary dispersal in a large-seeded tree Aesculus turbinata: a test of directed dispersal

Gap characteristics and gap phase replacement of major tree species were examined in two primary old-growth (mean DBHs of the canopy trees were 45.2 and 56.1 cm) and four secondary developing (range of mean DBH of the canopy trees was 23.5–39.9 cm) beech (Fagus crenata) stands in the Daisen Forest Reserve, southwestern Japan, and these were analyzed in relation to stand development as expressed by the difference of mean DBH of canopy trees. Percentage gap area (percentage of total gap area to total surveyed area) and mean and maximum gap size varied widely and ranged from 1.7 to 20.0%, from 19.4 to 162.8 m2, and from 35.7 to 585.1 m2, respectively. Mean percentage gap area and mean gap size were significantly greater in old-growth than in developing stands. However, they and maximum gap size might not increase linearly with stand development, and the gap feature of less developed stands was greater than that of later stages in developing stands. The cause was a higher formation rate, in younger developing stands, of gaps formed by simultaneous death (multiple trees falling down in domino fashion) which tends to produce larger gaps. In developing stands mean DBH of gapmakers (canopy trees that formed a gap) was smaller than that of canopy trees, though the inverse trend might be found in old-growth stands. Three typical types of death or injury states of gapmakers such as standing dead, trunk broken and uprooted were found in every study stand and the difference in stand development may not cause stand-to-stand variations for them. Importance of F. crenata (the most dominant species) in the canopy layer increased and its importance in the understory layer decreased with stand development. Shade-intolerant Quercus mongolica in the canopy layer was more important in younger than in old-growth stands, and there was no Quercus regeneration in old-growth stands. Acer mono consistently appeared, though in much less abundance than other species, in both canopy and understory layers of all study stands. Sub-canopy layers, which are mainly formed by sub-canopy tree species such as Acanthopanax sciadophylloides and Acer japonicum, may gradually develop with stand development.p>     

Factors influencing sapling composition in canopy gaps of a temperate deciduous forest

To detect the factors that affect sapling species composition in gaps, we investigated 55 gaps in an old-growth temperate deciduous forest in Ogawa Forest Reserve, central Japan. Gap size, gap age, gap maker species, topographic location, adult tree composition around gaps, and saplings of tree species growing in the gaps were censused. For gaps 5 m², mean gap size was 70 m² and the maximum was 330 m². Estimated ages of gaps had a tendency to be concentrated in particular periods relating to strong wind records in the past. The sapling composition in gaps was highly and significantly correlated to that under closed canopy, indicating the importance of advance regeneration in this forest. However, some species showed significant occurrence biases in gaps or under closed canopy, suggesting differences in shade tolerance. The result of MANOVA showed that gap size and topography were important factors in determining the sapling composition in gaps. Species of gap makers affected the sapling composition indirectly by influencing gap size. The existence of parent trees around gaps had effects on sapling densities of several species. Gap age did not have clear influences on sapling composition. Variations in gap size and topography were considered as important factors that contribute to maintenance of species diversity in this forest.     

Gap-scale disturbance processes in secondary hardwood stands on the Cumberland Plateau,Tennessee, USA

Disturbance regimes in many temperate, old growth forests are characterized by gap-scale events. However, prior to a complex stage of development, canopy gaps may still serve as mechanisms for canopy tree replacement and stand structural changes associated with older forests. We investigated 40 canopy gaps in secondary hardwood stands on the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee to analyze gap-scale disturbance processes in developing forests. Gap origin, age, land fraction, size, shape, orientation, and gap maker characteristics were documented to investigate gap formation mechanisms and physical gap attributes. We also quantified density and diversity within gaps, gap closure, and gap-phase replacement to examine the influence of localized disturbances on forest development. The majority of canopy gaps were single-treefall events caused by uprooted or snapped stems. The fraction of the forest in canopy gaps was within the range reported from old growth remnants throughout the region. However, gap size was smaller in the developing stands, indicating that secondary forests contain a higher density of smaller gaps. The majority of canopy gaps were projected to close by lateral crown expansion rather than height growth of subcanopy individuals. However, canopy gaps still provided a means for understory trees to recruit to larger size classes. This process may allow overtopped trees to reach intermediate positions, and eventually the canopy, after future disturbance events. Over half of the trees located in true gaps with intermediate crown classifications were Acer saccharum, A. rubrum, or Liriodendron tulipifera. Because the gaps were relatively small and close by lateral branch growth of perimeter trees, the most shade-tolerant A. saccharum has the greatest probability of becoming dominant in the canopy under the current disturbance regime. Half of the gap maker trees removed from the canopy were Quercus; however, Acer species are the most probable replacement trees. These data indicate that canopy gaps are important drivers of forest change prior to a complex stage of development. Even in relatively young forests, gaps provide the mechanisms for stands to develop a complex structure, and may be used to explain patterns of shifting species composition in secondary forests of eastern North America.     

Reactions of the herb and moss layer,tree saplings and the shrub layer to tree deaths in forests of the Wielkopolska National Park (Western Poland)

This study examines the impact of canopy and canopy gaps on the development of lower forest layers in five protected phytocoenoses of oak-hornbeam habitats (natural and regeneration stands) and oak-pine habitats in the Wielkopolska National Park (WPN). In the studied forests the most common form of dead trees are those which are uprooted (45–59%), while the most frequently dying tree is pine (40–88%). The total area of gaps in relation to the studied forest area ranges from 329 to 2356 m²/ha.     

Community dynamics of evergreen broadleaf forests in southwestern Japan

The process and rate of revegetation in gaps in an evergreen oak forest were studied by comparing the species composition, tree density, frequency distribution of tree height, and relation between diameter at breast height and tree height among different aged stands. For estimating stand ages, the ages of gap indicators, such as,Symplocos prunifolia andAcer rufinerve, were very useful. It took about 70 years for gaps to be filled by large fully-grown trees. Since the mean residence time of the forest canopy was 180 years, the trees that attain the forest canopy were expected to be canopy trees for 110 years on the average. Tree densities of all broadleaved evergreens exceptS. prunifolia, were independent of stand age. On the other hand, densities of gap indicators,S. prunifolia andA. rufinerve, decreased as stand age increased. Other deciduous broadleaf and coniferous species were scarce as a whole. According to the frequency distributions of height of live and dead trees in different aged stands, it was suggested that shorter trees were more susceptible to death than taller trees. The self-thinning in revegetation process in gaps approximately followed the 3/2 power law, though the power was larger (−1.32) than expected from the law.     

Community dynamics of evergreen broadleaf forests in southwestern Japan. I. Wind damaged trees and canopy gaps in an evergreen oak forest

The rates of treefall and canopy opening in the evergreen oak forest in southwestern Japan were determined by studying the number and size distribution of overstory trees, wind damaged trees, and canopy gaps in a belt transect in the Kasugayama Forest Reserve in Nara City. Thirty three percent of the overstory trees wereCastanopsis cuspidata. The total area of canopy gaps was about 20% of the total land area in the study area. The ages of the gaps were determined by counting the annual rings of various kinds of trees growing in gaps. By comparing gap ages with meteorological data, it became evident that gap formation was mainly caused by strong typhoons. The mean time interval between strong typhoons visiting the forest reserve, 6.57 years, was determined by applying the MNY method to the meteorological data. The treefall rate and the mean area of canopy openings per year were 0.84 overstory trees/ha·year and 55.6 m²/ha·year, respectively. The mean residence time of the forest canopy was about 180 years.     

Gap dynamics in climaxFagus crenata forests

Gap characteristics and gap regeneration were studied in several climaxFagus crenata forests in Japan. 278 gaps were observed. Gaps covered 12% of the total land area of 20.05 ha. Gap density was 13.9 gaps per ha and, mean gap size was 92.0 m². Smaller gaps were much more frequent than larger ones. Gaps larger than 400 m² were rare. Most gaps were created by the death of single trees. Canopy trees died more often standing or with broken trunks than by uprooting, although uprooted trees were relatively abundant in the site with poor soil drainage and in the site on upper slope. Differences of gap regeneration behaviour were recognized among tree species.F. crenata regenerates in gaps from saplings recruited before gap creation and can replace not only its own gaps but also gaps of other species. Most species other thanF. crenata andMagnolia obovata could not regenerate in their own gaps. More successful regeneration ofF. crenata may occur in gaps smaller than 200 m², althought it regenerated in a wide range of gap size. However, increased relative density ofF. crenata in the canopy layer seems to prevent its successful regeneration. Gap regeneration of other species did not clearly depend on a species-specific gap size.     

Structure and regeneration of canopy species in an old-growth evergreen broad-leaved forest in Aya district,southwestern Japan

The population structure and regeneration of canopy species were studied in a 4 ha plot in an old-growth evergreen broad-leaved forest in the Aya district of southwestern Japan. The 200 m × 200 m plot contained 50 tree species, including 22 canopy species, 3,904 trees (dbh5 cm) and a total basal area of 48.3 m²/ha. Forty one gaps occurred within the plot, and both the average gap size (67.3 m²) and the total area of gap to plot area (6.9%) were small. Species found in the canopy in the plot were divided into three groups (A, B, C) based on size and spatial distribution patterns, and density in each tree size. Group A (typical species: Distylium racemosum, Persea japonica) showed a high density, nearly random distribution and an inverse J-shaped size distribution. Species in group B (Quercus salicina, Quercus acuta, Quercus gilva) were distributed contagiously with conspicuous concentration of small trees (<5 cm dbh) around gaps. However, the species in this group included few trees likely to reach the canopy in the near future. Group C included fast-growing pioneer and shade intolerant species (e.g. Cornus controversa, Carpinus tschonoskii, Fagara ailanthoides), which formed large clumps. Most gaps were not characterized by successful regeneration of group B and C but did appear to accelerate the growth of group A. Group B species appear to require long-lived or large gaps while group C species require large, catastrophic disturbances, such as landslides, for regeneration.     

Seed bank dynamics and tree‐fall gaps in a northwestern Mexican Quercus‐Pinus forest

Questions: How does the seed bank respond to different types of tree‐fall gaps and seasonal variations? How does the soil seed bank influence recovery of the standing vegetation in the mature forest and tree‐fall gaps? Location: 1800 — 2020 m a.s.l., Quercus‐Pinus forest, Baja California Sur, Mexico. Methods: Seed size, species composition and germination were estimated under different environmental conditions during dry and rainy seasons: a mature forest plot and gaps created by dead standing trees, snapped‐of f trees and uprooted trees. The soil seed bank was investigated using direct propagule emergence under laboratory conditions, from soil cores obtained during both seasons. Results: 21 species, 20 genera and 14 families constitute the seed bank of this forest community. Fabaceae, Asteraceae, Euphorbiaceae and Lamiaceae were the most frequently represented families in the seed bank. Floristic composition and species richness varied according to the different modes of tree death. Species composition of seed banks and standing vegetation had very low similarity coefficients and were statistically different. Seed bank sizes varied between 164 and 362 ind.m^‐2 in the mature forest plot for the dry and rainy seasons, respectively, while soil seed bank sizes for gaps ranged between 23–208 ind.m^‐2 forthe dry season and between 81–282 ind.m^‐2 for the rainy season. Conclusions: Seed bank sizes and germination response were always higher in the rainy season under all the environmental conditions analysed. Results suggest that timing responses to gap formation of the soil seed bank could be more delayed in this temperate forest than expected.     

阔叶红松林林隙结构与树种多样性关系研究

对阔叶红松林林隙与林下不同层次树种多样性进行比较,探讨林隙大小及发育阶段与树种多样性间的关系.结果表明,林隙与林下树种多样性存在显著差异（P<0.01）.与林下相比,林隙更新层树种多样性、丰富度和均匀度增大,生态优势度减小（P<0.01）;演替层树种多样性、丰富度和均匀度减小,生态优势度增大（P<0.0001）.林隙中不同层次树种多样性随着林隙大小呈现出相反的变化趋势.长白山阔叶红松林林隙演替层树种多样性和丰富度总体上呈单峰形变化,中等大小林隙（100～250 m²）中树种多样性和丰富度较高,生态优势度较小.而更新层树种多样性和均匀度在≥250 m²和<100 m²的林隙中最大,在200～250 m²的林隙中最小;生态优势度在200～250 m²的林隙中达到最大.更新层和演替层树种对林隙面积大小反应不同,有利于更新层幼苗建立的林隙面积并不是演替层幼树发育和成活的最适面积;随林隙年龄的增加,更新层和演替层树种多样性在不同层次上呈互补关系.     

Chance versus determinism in canopy gap regeneration in coastal scarp forest in South Africa

Question: Is tree regeneration in canopy gaps characterized by chance or predictable establishment. Location: Coastal scarp forests, Umzimvubu district, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. Methods: Estimation of richness of gap‐filling species across canopy gaps of different size. Data are compared with regeneration under the canopy. Probability of self‐replacement of gap forming species is calculated. Results: Forest area under natural gap phase was 7.8%, caused mostly by windthrow (54%). The abundance and average size of gaps (87.8 m²) suggests that species diversity may be maintained by gap dynamics. However, only four of 53 gap‐filler species displayed gap size specialization and these were pioneer species. An additional 13 species were more common in larger gaps but there was no gradient in composition of gap‐filler species across gap size (p= 0.61). Probabilities of self‐replacement in a gap were low (< 0.3) and common canopy species were equally abundant in gaps and the understorey. Species composition in gaps showed no pattern of variation, i.e. was unpredictable, which suggests absence of a successional sequence within tree‐fall gaps. There was also only a slight increase in species richness in gaps at intermediate levels of disturbance. Conclusions: Coastal scarp forest appears not to comprise tightly co‐evolved, niche‐differentiated tree species. Unpredictable species composition in gaps may be a chance effect of recruitment limitation of species from the species pool. Chance establishment slows competitive exclusion and may maintain tree diversity in these forests. These data suggest that current levels (≤ 3 gaps per ha) of selective tree harvesting may not cause a reduction in species richness in this forest.     

Vegetation and environmental heterogeneity relationships in a Neotropical swamp forest in southeastern Brazil (Itirapina, SP)

Patterns in substrate, canopy openness, tree species composition and structure were studied in a swamp forest in southeastern Brazil (Itirapina, SP), using a fine spatial scale (∼0.05 km²). Sixty quadrats of 10 m × 10 m were divided into three sample plots, located in the centre and at both ends of the forest remnant (upstream and downstream), encompassing different environmental conditions. In each quadrat we quantified and identified individuals with CBH (circumference at breast height) ≥ 10 cm, the chemical properties of the soil, the drainage (flooded area) and the percentage of canopy openness. We keep 5124 individuals distributed over 37 species and 25 families. The downstream site presented a lower frequency of flooding, canopy openness, species richness (15 species) and density of individuals. In the central site we found different patterns of drainage and light incidence, the greatest species richness (31 species) and density of individuals, but smaller trees both in height and in diameter. The upstream site was subject to higher frequency of flooding, with intermediate values for density and species richness (27 species). Floristic and structural variation between and within sites reflects the different environmental conditions related to substrate and canopy openness. However, a larger number of species were correlated with drainage pattern (21 species) rather than with canopy openness (14 species), suggesting that the main factor responsible for the spatial organization of the plant community in swamp forests is soil drainage.     

长白山自然保护区阔叶红松林林隙更新的研究

通过对林隙及非林隙林分组成树种数量特征的对比分析,研究了长白山自然保护区阔叶红松林中主要树种对林隙的更新反应特点,阐述了林隙在阔叶红松林结构与多样性维持中的作用．随着林隙与非林隙的交替变化,红松和阔叶树以及主林层和中下层树种的相对优势（或重要性）亦呈现出交替变化的规律．林隙提高了阔叶红松林的物种丰富度,增加了其多样性,为不同特性物种的共存提供了可能,从而保持了阔叶红松林的整体稳定性．     

Loss of oak dominance in dry-mesic deciduous forests predicted by gap capture methods

Gap capture methods predict future forest canopy species composition from the tallest trees growing in canopy gaps rather than from random samples of shaded understory trees. We used gap capture methods and a simulation approach to forecast canopy composition in three old oak forests (Quercus spp.) on dry-mesic sites in southern Wisconsin, USA. In the simulation, a gap sapling is considered successful if it exceeds a threshold height of 13–17 m (height of maximum crown width of canopy trees) before its crown center can be overtopped by lateral crown growth of mature trees. The composition of both the tallest gap trees and simulated gap captures suggests that 68–90% of the next generation of canopy trees in the stands will consist of non-Quercus species, particularly Ulmus rubra, Carya ovata and Prunus serotina. Quercus species will probably remain as a lesser stand component, with Quercus alba and Quercus rubra predicted to comprise about 19% of successful gap trees across the three stands. Several methods of predicting future canopy composition gave similar results, probably because no gap opportunist species were present in these stands and there was an even distribution of species among height strata in gaps. Gap trees of competing species already average 11–13 m tall, and mean expected time for these trees to reach full canopy height is only 19 years. For these reasons, we suggest that dominance will shift from oaks to other species, even though late successional species (e.g., Acer and Tilia) are not presently common in the understories of these stands.