A century of conservation: The ongoing recovery of Svalbard reindeer

Several caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations have experienced recent population declines, often attributed to anthropogenic stressors such as harvesting, landscape fragmentation, and climate change. Svalbard reindeer (R. t. platyrhynchus), the wild reindeer subspecies endemic to the high-Arctic Svalbard archipelago, was protected in 1925, after most subpopulations had been eradicated by harvest. Although direct pressure from harvest has ceased, indirect anthropogenic stressors from environmental changes have increased in this climate change hot spot. An assessment of the current distribution and abundance is therefore urgently needed. We combined distance sampling (300 km transects, n = 489 reindeer groups) and total counts (1,350 km², n = 1,349 groups) to estimate the Svalbard reindeer distribution and abundance across its entire range, which we compared with historical data from the literature and radiocarbon-dated bones. Reindeer have now recolonized nearly all non-glaciated land (i.e., areas occupied prior to human presence), and their spatial variation in abundance reflects vegetation productivity. Independent of vegetation productivity, however, recently recolonized areas have lower reindeer densities than areas not subject to past extirpation. This suggests that recovery from past overharvesting is still in progress. These incompletely recovered areas are potential targets for increased monitoring frequency and maintaining strict conservation to follow the Svalbard management goal (i.e., virtually untouched wilderness areas). Because of such ongoing recolonization, possibly combined with vegetation greening effects of recent warming, our status estimate of Svalbard reindeer abundance (22,435 [95% CI = 21,452–23,425]) is more than twice a previous estimate based on opportunistic counts. Thus, although our study demonstrates the successful outcome of strict harvesting control implemented a century ago, current and future population trajectories are likely shaped by climate change. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Temperature and multiple parasites combine to alter host community structure

Predicting the effects of climate change requires understanding complex interactions among multiple abiotic and biotic factors. By influencing key interactions among host species, parasites can affect community and ecosystem structuring. Yet, our understanding of how multiple parasites and abiotic factors interact to alter ecosystem structure remains limited. To empirically test the role of temperature variation and parasites in shaping communities, we used a multigenerational mesocosm experiment composed of four sympatric freshwater crustacean species (isopods and amphipods) that share up to four parasite species. Mesocosms were assigned to one of four different treatments with contrasting seasonal temperatures (normal and elevated) and parasite exposure levels (continuous and arrested (presence or absence of parasite larvae in mesocosm)). We found that parasite exposure and water temperature had interactive effects on the host community. Continuous exposure to parasites altered the community structure and differences in water temperature altered species abundance. The abundance of the amphipod Paracalliope fluviatilis decreased substantially when experiencing continuous parasite exposure and elevated water temperatures. Elevated temperatures also led to parasite-induced mortality in another amphipod host, Paracorophium excavatum. Contrastingly, isopod hosts were affected much less, suggesting increasing temperatures in conjunction with higher parasite exposure might increase their relative abundance in the community. Changes in invertebrate host populations have implications for other species such as fish and birds that consume crustaceans as well as having impacts on ecosystem processes, such as aquatic primary production and nutrient cycling. In light of climate change predictions, parasite exposure and rise in average temperatures may have substantial impacts on communities and ecosystems, altering ecosystem structure and dynamics.     

The Arctic Oscillation predicts effects of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem

During recent decades there has been a change in the circulation of atmospheric pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. These variations are expressed in the recently described Arctic Oscillation (AO), which has shown an upward trend (associated with winter warming in the eastern Arctic) during the last three decades. We analysed a 12‐year time series on growth of Cassiope tetragona (Lapland Cassiope) and a 21‐year time series on abundance of a Svalbard reindeer population. High values of the AO index were associated with reduced plant growth and reindeer population growth rate. The North Atlantic Oscillation index was not able to explain a significant proportion of the variance in either plant growth or reindeer population fluctuations. Thus, the AO index may be a better predictor for ecosystem effects of climate change in certain high‐arctic areas compared to the NAO index.     

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (M_tot) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (l_gs) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re‐analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum‐likelihood model selection, independent‐effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by M_tot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of M_tot, both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that l_gs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (T_ann and P_ann), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale.     

Climate change increases the risk of malaria in birds

Malaria caused by Plasmodium parasites is one of the worst scourges of mankind and threatens wild animal populations. Therefore, identifying mechanisms that mediate the spread of the disease is crucial for both human health and conservation. Human‐induced climate change has been hypothesized to alter the geographic distribution of malaria pathogens. As the earth warms, arthropod vectors may display a general range expansion or may enjoy longer breeding season, both of which can enhance parasite transmission. Moreover, Plasmodium species may directly benefit for elevating temperatures, which provide stimulating conditions for parasite reproduction. To test for the link between climate change and malaria prevalence on a global scale for the first time, I used long‐term records on avian malaria, which is a key model for studying the dynamics of naturally occurring malarial infections. Following the variation in parasite prevalence in more than 3000 bird species over seven decades, I show that the infection rate by Plasmodium is strongly associated with temperature anomalies and has been augmented with accelerating tendency during the last 20 years. The impact of climate change on malaria prevalence varies across continents, with the strongest effects found for Europe and Africa. Migration habit did not predict susceptibility to the escalating parasite pressure by Plasmodium. Consequently, wild birds are at an increasing risk of malaria infection due to recent climate change, which can endanger both naïve bird populations and domesticated animals. The prevailing avian example may provide useful lessons for understanding the effect of climate change on malaria in humans.     

Host–parasite interactions and vectors in the barn swallow in relation to climate change

Recent climate change has affected the phenology of numerous species, and such differential changes may affect host–parasite interactions. Using information on vectors (louseflies, mosquitoes, blackflies) and parasites (tropical fowl mite Ornithonyssus bursa, the lousefly Ornithomyia avicularia, a chewing louse Brueelia sp., two species of feather mites Trouessartia crucifera and Trouessartia appendiculata, and two species of blood parasites Leucozytozoon whitworthi and Haemoproteus prognei) of the barn swallow Hirundo rustica collected during 1971–2008, I analyzed temporal changes in emergence and abundance, relationships with climatic conditions, and changes in the fitness impact of parasites on their hosts. Temperature and rainfall during the summer breeding season of the host increased during the study. The intensity of infestation by mites decreased, but increased for the lousefly during 1982–2008. The prevalence of two species of blood parasites increased during 1988–2008. The timing of first mass emergence of mosquitoes and blackflies advanced. These temporal changes in phenology and abundance of parasites and vectors could be linked to changes in temperature, but less so to changes in precipitation. Parasites had fitness consequences for hosts because intensity of the mite and the chewing louse was significantly associated with delayed breeding of the host, while a greater abundance of feather mites was associated with earlier breeding. Reproductive success of the host decreased with increasing abundance of the chewing louse. The temporal decrease in mite abundance was associated with advanced breeding of the host, while the increase in abundance of the lousefly was associated with earlier breeding. Virulence by the tropical fowl mite decreased with increasing temperature, independent of confounding factors. These findings suggest that climate change affects parasite species differently, hence altering the composition of the parasite community, and that climate change causes changes in the virulence of parasites. Because the changing phenology of different species of parasites had both positive and negative effects on their hosts, and because the abundance of some parasites increased, while that of other decreased, there was no consistent temporal change in host fitness during 1971–2008.     

Latitudinal patterns of aquatic insect emergence driven by climate

Aim

Emerging aquatic insects link aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the Earth. Their diversity, abundance and functional importance means their emergence is an important phenological event. Nevertheless, aquatic insect emergence is understudied at a global scale compared to other phenological events, despite changing phenology being one of the most significant ecological responses to climate change. Here, we quantitatively describe the global patterns, and key proposed drivers, of seasonal aquatic insect emergence, to further understand how these patterns might change in the future.

Location

Global.

Time Period

1950–2018.

Major Taxa Studied

Emerging aquatic insects.

Methods

We extracted monthly emergence data from 86 studies across 163 sites to construct 1053 annual emergence curves. We parameterized the curves using two complementary metrics of seasonality, which were modelled against geographical and climatic variables to determine the direct and indirect relationships between them.

Results

We found clear global trends in aquatic insect emergence patterns across latitude and underlying climates. Between-month variation and temporal restriction of emergence increased from the equator to the poles, going from small, aseasonal fluctuations in the warm, thermally stable tropics to large, seasonal peaks at cooler, thermally unstable higher latitudes. While emergence trends were associated with gradients of precipitation, temperature was the dominant climatic driver of the latitudinal trend.

Main Conclusions

These findings suggest that with climate warming, aquatic insects will emerge over longer periods, diluted in abundances and displaying less seasonal emergence patterns with smaller between-month fluctuations. This may result in disruption of ecosystem functions seasonally dependent on aquatic insects, such as riparian predation, pollination and disease transmission. The cross-ecosystem life cycle of aquatic insects means changes to their seasonal patterns of emergence will have impacts in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.     

Campylobacter spp., Enterococcus spp., Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., Yersinia spp., and Cryptosporidium oocysts in semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in Northern Finland and Norway

The specific aim of this study was to assess the faecal shedding of zoonotic enteropathogens by semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) to deduce the potential risk to human health through modern reindeer herding. In total, 2,243 faecal samples of reindeer from northern regions of Finland and Norway were examined for potentially enteropathogenic bacteria (Campylobacter species, Enterococcus species, Escherichia coli, Salmonella species and Yersinia species) and parasites (Cryptosporidium species) in accordance with standard procedures. Escherichia coli were isolated in 94.7%, Enterococcus species in 92.9%, Yersinia species in 4.8% of the samples and Campylobacter species in one sample only (0.04%). Analysis for virulence factors in E. coli and Yersinia species revealed no pathogenic strains. Neither Salmonella species nor Cryptosporidium oocysts were detected. The public health risk due to reindeer husbandry concerning zoonotic diseases included in this study has to be considered as very low at present but a putative epidemiological threat may arise when herding conditions are changed with respect to intensification and crowding.     

Climate,host phylogeny and the connectivity of host communities govern regional parasite assembly

Aim

Identifying barriers that govern parasite community assembly and parasite invasion risk is critical to understand how shifting host ranges impact disease emergence. We studied regional variation in the phylogenetic compositions of bird species and their blood parasites (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus spp.) to identify barriers that shape parasite community assembly.

Location

Australasia and Oceania.

Methods

We used a data set of parasite infections from >10,000 host individuals sampled across 29 bioregions. Hierarchical models and matrix regressions were used to assess the relative influences of interspecies (host community connectivity and local phylogenetic distinctiveness), climate and geographic barriers on parasite local distinctiveness and composition.

Results

Parasites were more locally distinct (co‐occurred with distantly related parasites) when infecting locally distinct hosts, but less distinct (co‐occurred with closely related parasites) in areas with increased host diversity and community connectivity (a proxy for parasite dispersal potential). Turnover and the phylogenetic symmetry of parasite communities were jointly driven by host turnover, climate similarity and geographic distance.

Main conclusions

Interspecies barriers linked to host phylogeny and dispersal shape parasite assembly, perhaps by limiting parasite establishment or local diversification. Infecting hosts that co‐occur with few related species decreases a parasite's likelihood of encountering related competitors, perhaps increasing invasion potential but decreasing diversification opportunity. While climate partially constrains parasite distributions, future host range expansions that spread distinct parasites and diminish barriers to host shifting will likely be key drivers of parasite invasions.     

Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America

An understanding of the influence of climate change on Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in North America, is a fundamental component in assessing changes in the spatial distribution of human risk for the disease. We used a climate suitability model of I. scapularis to examine the potential effects of global climate change on future Lyme disease risk in North America. A climate-based logistic model was first used to explain the current distribution of I. scapularis in North America. Climate-change scenarios were then applied to extrapolate the model in time and to forecast vector establishment. The spatially modeled relationship between I. scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data generated the current pattern of I. scapularis across North America with an accuracy of 89% (P < 0.0001). Extrapolation of the model revealed a significant expansion of I. scapularis north into Canada with an increase in suitable habitat of 213% by the 2080s. Climate change will also result in a retraction of the vector from the southern U.S. and movement into the central U.S. This report predicts the effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk and specifically forecasts the emergence of a tickborne infectious disease in Canada. Our modeling approach could thus be used to outline where future control strategies and prevention efforts need to be applied.     

Cascading Effects of Climate Change: Do Hurricane‐damaged Forests Increase Risk of Exposure to Parasites?

Increased parasitism in animals in disturbed habitats is often understood to be the result of increased disease susceptibility due to low food availability resulting in nutritionally stressed and immunocompromised individuals. Such habitat change, however, might also lead to increased exposure to disease. In this article, we test measures of susceptibility and exposure to explain the prevalence and intensity of directly and indirectly transmitted helminths in black howler monkeys (Alouatta pigra) following a hurricane in Belize. None of these parasites were predicted by direct measures of susceptibility (as measured by fruit consumption and fecal cortisol levels). Rather, directly transmitted parasites (Trichuris sp. and strongylid type eggs.) were predicted by host density and group size, both measures of exposure. Similarly, only the consumption of Cecropia peltata, a fast growing pioneer that has a mutualistic relationship with ants predicted levels of the indirectly transmitted trematode Controrchis spp., also suggesting exposure. Cecropia peltata also increased in density post‐hurricane, was high in digestible protein, sugar, and salt and eaten by monkeys more frequently than predicted based on distribution. These data suggest that in this hurricane‐damaged forest the ingestion of this abundant and nutritious pioneer species increased exposure of the monkeys to Controrchis through ingestion of ant intermediate hosts. These results may point to a pattern true of pioneer species in general, leaving animals in disturbed forests with higher levels of parasitism as a result of changes to forest structure. As severe weather events are expected to increase, this suggests a cascading effect of climate change on ecosystem interactions and disease ecology.     

Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management

Global change (climate change together with other worldwide anthropogenic processes such as increasing trade, air pollution and urbanization) will affect plant health at the genetic, individual, population and landscape level. Direct effects include ecosystem stress due to natural resources shortage or imbalance. Indirect effects include (i) an increased frequency of natural detrimental phenomena, (ii) an increased pressure due to already present pests and diseases, (iii) the introduction of new invasive species either as a result of an improved suitability of the climatic conditions or as a result of increased trade, and (iv) the human response to global change. In this review, we provide an overview of recent studies on terrestrial plant health in the presence of global change factors. We summarize the links between climate change and some key issues in plant health, including tree mortality, changes in wildfire regimes, biological invasions and the role of genetic diversity for ecosystem resilience. Prediction and management of global change effects are complicated by interactions between globalization, climate and invasive plants and/or pathogens. We summarize practical guidelines for landscape management and draw general conclusions from an expanding body of literature.     

Predicting woodrat (Neotoma) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long‐term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.     

Robust geographical determinants of infection prevalence and a contrasting latitudinal diversity gradient for haemosporidian parasites in Western Palearctic birds

Identifying robust environmental predictors of infection probability is central to forecasting and mitigating the ongoing impacts of climate change on vector‐borne disease threats. We applied phylogenetic hierarchical models to a data set of 2,171 Western Palearctic individual birds from 47 species to determine how climate and landscape variation influence infection probability for three genera of haemosporidian blood parasites (Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium). Our comparative models found compelling evidence that birds in areas with higher vegetation density (captured by the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) had higher likelihoods of carrying parasite infection. Magnitudes of this relationship were remarkably similar across parasite genera considering that these parasites use different arthropod vectors and are widely presumed to be epidemiologically distinct. However, we also uncovered key differences among genera that highlighted complexities in their climate responses. In particular, prevalences of Haemoproteus and Plasmodium showed strong but contrasting relationships with winter temperatures, supporting mounting evidence that winter warming is a key environmental filter impacting the dynamics of host‐parasite interactions. Parasite phylogenetic community diversities demonstrated a clear but contrasting latitudinal gradient, with Haemoproteus diversity increasing towards the equator and Leucocytozoon diversity increasing towards the poles. Haemoproteus diversity also increased in regions with higher vegetation density, supporting our evidence that summer vegetation density is important for structuring the distributions of these parasites. Ongoing variation in winter temperatures and vegetation characteristics will probably have far‐reaching consequences for the transmission and spread of vector‐borne diseases.     

Trypanosoma cervi from Alaskan Reindeer,Rangifer tarandus1

Twenty-nine (64.4%) of 45 reindeer, Rangifer tarandus, examined over a two-year period were infected with trypanosomes. Trypomastigotes and dividing epimastigotes were found in the blood of fawns, cows, and bulls. Morphometric analysis of bloodstream trypomastigotes from reindeer and comparison of these parasites with similar stages of trypanosomes from elk, mule deer, and white-tailed deer from the contiguous United States proved them conspecific; the trypanosomes from these members of the Cervidae are identified as Trypanosoma cervi Kingston & Morton, 1975. This is the first report of trypanosomes from reindeer. No pathogenic effects are known to be caused by these parasites.     

Finding the appropriate variables to model the distribution of vector‐borne parasites with different environmental preferences: climate is not enough

Understanding how environmental variation influences the distribution of parasite diversity is critical if we are to anticipate disease emergence risks associated with global change. However, choosing the relevant variables for modelling current and future parasite distributions may be difficult: candidate predictors are many, and they seldom are statistically independent. This problem often leads to simplistic models of current and projected future parasite distributions, with climatic variables prioritized over potentially important landscape features or host population attributes. We studied avian blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon (which are viewed as potential emergent pathogens) in 37 Iberian blackcap Sylvia atricapilla populations. We used Partial Least Squares regression to assess the relative importance of a wide array of putative determinants of variation in the diversity of these parasites, including climate, landscape features and host population migration. Both prevalence and richness of parasites were predominantly related to climate (an effect which was primarily, but not exclusively driven by variation in temperature), but landscape features and host migration also explained variation in parasite diversity. Remarkably, different models emerged for each parasite genus, although all parasites were studied in the same host species. Our results show that parasite distribution models, which are usually based on climatic variables alone, improve by including other types of predictors. Moreover, closely related parasites may show different relationships to the same environmental influences (both in magnitude and direction). Thus, a model used to develop one parasite distribution can probably not be applied identically even to the most similar host–parasite systems.     

Public Health Risk Assessment Linked to Climatic and Ecological Change

Disturbances of climatic and ecological systems can present risks to human health, which are becoming more evident from health studies linked to climate variability, landuse change and global climate change. Waterborne disease agents, such as Giardia cysts and Cryposporidium oocysts have been positively correlated with rainfall. El Niño-related extreme weather conditions can have a significant impact on vector- and water-borne diseases. The linkages between weather, terrestrial ecology and human health have been discovered for some diseases, such as rodent-borne hantavirus. Marine ecology also plays a role in determining human health risks, such as from cholera, and other enteric pathogens. Deforestation and ensuing changes in landuse, human settlement, commercial development, road construction, and water control systems singly, and in combination have been accompanied by increases in or emergence of diseases like malaria and schistosomiasis in some regions of the world. Long-term climate change may increase the frequency of heat waves and potentially air pollution episodes, increase the number of extreme weather events, cause coastal flooding and salination of fresh water aquifers, and displace coastal settlements. Ultimately, a two-pronged approach (empirical and modeling studies) is required to better understand these linkages between climato-logical and ecological change as determinants of disease.     

Interannual variability in carbon dioxide fluxes and flux–climate relationships on grazed and ungrazed northern mixed-grass prairie

The annual carbon (C) budget of grasslands is highly dynamic, dependent on grazing history and on effects of interannual variability (IAV) in climate on carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes. Variability in climatic drivers may directly affect fluxes, but also may indirectly affect fluxes by altering the response of the biota to the environment, an effect termed ‘functional change’. We measured net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) and its diurnal components, daytime ecosystem CO₂ exchange (P_D) and night‐time respiration (R_E), on grazed and ungrazed mixed‐grass prairie in North Dakota, USA, for five growing seasons. Our primary objective was to determine how climatic anomalies influence variability in CO₂ exchange. We used regression analysis to distinguish direct effects of IAV in climate on fluxes from functional change. Functional change was quantified as the improvement in regression on fitting a model in which slopes of flux–climate relationships vary among years rather than remain invariant. Functional change and direct effects of climatic variation together explained about 20% of variance in weekly means of NEE, P_D, and R_E. Functional change accounted for more than twice the variance in fluxes of direct effects of climatic variability. Grazing did not consistently influence the contribution of functional change to flux variability, but altered which environmental variable best explained year‐to‐year differences in flux–climate slopes, reduced IAV in seasonal means of fluxes, lessened the strength of flux–climate correlations, and increased NEE by reducing R_E relatively more than P_D. Most of these trends are consistent with the interpretation that grazing reduced the influence of plants on ecosystem fluxes. Because relationships between weekly values of fluxes and climatic regulators changed annually, year‐to‐year differences in the C balance of these ecosystems cannot be predicted from knowledge of IAV in climate alone.     

Seed–litter–position drives seedling establishment in grassland species under recurrent drought

Changes in land use and climate interfere with grassland ecosystem processes. Here I experimentally investigated the combined effects of land‐use change related litter cover and contrasting water supply on seedling emergence. In this context, the role of the initial relative position of seeds, i.e. seeds on top of the litter versus seeds beneath the litter in interaction with water supply has not been investigated so far. I hypothesised that facilitative effects of litter on seedling emergence occur when seeds are covered by litter and deteriorate when litter covers the ground and seeds fall on it (seeds on top of the litter). Further, I hypothesised that the importance of seed position for seedling emergence will increase under conditions of recurrent drought. I performed a controlled pot experiment on seedling emergence of three common European grassland species (Pimpinella saxifraga, Leontodon autumnalis, Sanguisorba officinalis) by experimental manipulations of litter and water availability. Seedling emergence under moist conditions showed no significant differences between each litter position compared to the control across species. In contrast, under recurrent drought, seedling emergence was significantly higher below the litter compared to seeds on top of the litter and the control (i.e. no litter). In abandoned land, seedling emergence may be limited when seeds fall on ground‐covering litter. In contrast, in grasslands with regular low‐intensity land use, seedling emergence may be enhanced when a moderate level of litter covers seeds at the end of the growing season. Protective mechanisms that occur with seeds positioned beneath litter are particularly important under recurrent drought.     

Assessment of ecosystem resilience to hydroclimatic disturbances in India

Recent studies have shown an increasing trend in hydroclimatic disturbances like droughts, which are anticipated to become more frequent and intense under global warming and climate change. Droughts adversely affect the vegetation growth and crop yield, which enhances the risks to food security for a country like India with over 1.2 billion people to feed. Here, we compared the response of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to hydroclimatic disturbances in India at different scales (i.e., at river basins, land covers, and climate types) to examine the ecosystems’ resilience to such adverse conditions. The ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE_e: NPP/Evapotranspiration) is an effective indicator of ecosystem productivity, linking carbon (C) and water cycles. We found a significant difference (p < .05) in WUE_e across India at different scales. The ecosystem resilience analysis indicated that most of the river basins were not resilient enough to hydroclimatic disturbances. Drastic reduction in WUE_e under dry conditions was observed for some basins, which highlighted the cross‐biome incapability to withstand such conditions. The ecosystem resilience at land cover and climate type scale did not completely relate to the basin‐scale ecosystem resilience, which indicated that ecosystem resilience at basin scale is controlled by some other ecohydrological processes. Our results facilitate the identification of the most sensitive regions in the country for ecosystem management and climate policy making, and highlight the need for taking sufficient adaptation measures to ensure sustainability of ecosystems.