A research agenda for malaria eradication: drugs

Antimalarial drugs will be essential tools at all stages of malaria elimination along the path towards eradication, including the early control or "attack" phase to drive down transmission and the later stages of maintaining interruption of transmission, preventing reintroduction of malaria, and eliminating the last residual foci of infection. Drugs will continue to be used to treat acute malaria illness and prevent complications in vulnerable groups, but better drugs are needed for elimination-specific indications such as mass treatment, curing asymptomatic infections, curing relapsing liver stages, and preventing transmission. The ideal malaria eradication drug is a coformulated drug combination suitable for mass administration that can be administered in a single encounter at infrequent intervals and that results in radical cure of all life cycle stages of all five malaria species infecting humans. Short of this optimal goal, highly desirable drugs might have limitations such as targeting only one or two parasite species, the priorities being Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. The malaria research agenda for eradication should include research aimed at developing such drugs and research to develop situation-specific strategies for using both current and future drugs to interrupt malaria transmission.     

A research agenda for malaria eradication: vaccines

Vaccines could be a crucial component of efforts to eradicate malaria. Current attempts to develop malaria vaccines are primarily focused on Plasmodium falciparum and are directed towards reducing morbidity and mortality. Continued support for these efforts is essential, but if malaria vaccines are to be used as part of a repertoire of tools for elimination or eradication of malaria, they will need to have an impact on malaria transmission. We introduce the concept of "vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission" (VIMT), which includes not only "classical" transmission-blocking vaccines that target the sexual and mosquito stages but also pre-erythrocytic and asexual stage vaccines that have an effect on transmission. VIMT may also include vaccines that target the vector to disrupt parasite development in the mosquito. Importantly, if eradication is to be achieved, malaria vaccine development efforts will need to target other malaria parasite species, especially Plasmodium vivax, where novel therapeutic vaccines against hypnozoites or preventive vaccines with effect against multiple stages could have enormous impact. A target product profile (TPP) for VIMT is proposed and a research agenda to address current knowledge gaps and develop tools necessary for design and development of VIMT is presented.     

A research agenda for malaria eradication: vector control

Different challenges are presented by the variety of malaria transmission environments present in the world today. In each setting, improved control for reduction of morbidity is a necessary first step towards the long-range goal of malaria eradication and a priority for regions where the disease burden is high. For many geographic areas where transmission rates are low to moderate, sustained and well-managed application of currently available tools may be sufficient to achieve local elimination. The research needs for these areas will be to sustain and perhaps improve the effectiveness of currently available tools. For other low-to-moderate transmission regions, notably areas where the vectors exhibit behaviours such as outdoor feeding and resting that are not well targeted by current strategies, new interventions that target predictable features of the biology/ecologies of the local vectors will be required. To achieve elimination in areas where high levels of transmission are sustained by very efficient vector species, radically new interventions that significantly reduce the vectorial capacity of wild populations will be needed. Ideally, such interventions should be implemented with a one-time application with a long-lasting impact, such as genetic modification of the vectorial capacity of the wild vector population.     

Getting ready for malaria elimination: a check list of critical issues to consider

In recent years, a renewed interest in malaria elimination and eradication has emerged and seems to be rooting in the minds of the scientific community, public health specialists, funding bodies, policy makers and politicians. Malaria eradication will certainly benefit from improved and innovative tools; notwithstanding novel knowledge in fields ranging from basic science to mathematical modelling and health systems research. However, the elimination of malaria also encompasses a broad range of essential aspects that countries and other actors need to consider when thinking of embarking on such an adventure, including the implementation of innovative strategies, the ability to incorporate the most up-to-date evidence into policy, the integration of malaria into the broader health agenda, the strengthening of surveillance and health systems, capacity building, funding, advocacy and, very importantly, research. While in some cases this enthusiasm is clearly justified, some countries are still a long way from realistically advancing towards elimination. This paper attempts to provide guidance on all the necessary issues that should be considered when initiating a malaria elimination program.     

Tools and Strategies for Malaria Control and Elimination: What Do We Need to Achieve a Grand Convergence in Malaria?

Progress made in malaria control during the past decade has prompted increasing global dialogue on malaria elimination and eradication. The product development pipeline for malaria has never been stronger, with promising new tools to detect, treat, and prevent malaria, including innovative diagnostics, medicines, vaccines, vector control products, and improved mechanisms for surveillance and response. There are at least 25 projects in the global malaria vaccine pipeline, as well as 47 medicines and 13 vector control products. In addition, there are several next-generation diagnostic tools and reference methods currently in development, with many expected to be introduced in the next decade. The development and adoption of these tools, bolstered by strategies that ensure rapid uptake in target populations, intensified mechanisms for information management, surveillance, and response, and continued financial and political commitment are all essential to achieving global eradication.     

The United States Army and malaria control in World War II

The United States Army faced difficult malaria control problems both at home and abroad during World War II. This challenge forced the Army to develop new tools and strategies for use in malarious areas where fighting was occurring. Due to the severe malaria problems being faced in some combat areas and the need to solve these problems quickly, intensive malaria research and operational programs were developed and implemented. With these concerted efforts and the simultaneous development of new control technologies, malaria was successfully controlled in most locations. In order to accomplish this high level of control both in the US and overseas, the Army developed a very organized approach to the malaria problem and implemented it in an effective manner. The creation of new technical solutions was also strongly emphasized and out of this effort came the development of effective antimalaria drugs to replace quinine, of new insecticides and of more effective systems for delivering these insecticides. Some of the major new tools which came out of this research were DDT and drugs such as Atabrine and chloroquine. The availability of Atabrine and DDT revolutionized malaria control throughout the world. The knowledge and experience gained through the use of these new tools by the US Army and other agencies in World War II provided the basis for a new optimism regarding malaria control which then led to the development of the global malaria eradication strategy in the post-war years.     

Harnessing genomics and genome biology to understand malaria biology

Malaria is an important human disease and is the target of a global eradication campaign. New technological and informatics advancements in population genomics are being leveraged to identify genetic loci under selection in the malaria parasite and to find variants that are associated with key clinical phenotypes, such as drug resistance. This article provides a timely Review of how population-genetics-based strategies are being applied to Plasmodium falciparum both to identify genetic loci as key targets of interventions and to develop monitoring and surveillance tools that are crucial for the successful elimination and eradication of malaria.     

The Anopheles gambiae genome: next steps for malaria vector control

Malaria remains a major public health problem that is made worse by poor implementation of control measures, and by the spread of drug- and insecticide-resistant parasites and vectors, respectively. Availability of the Anopheles gambiae genome sequence will accelerate identification and exploitation of new target genes in this insect vector. This provides unique opportunities to improve on existing vector control tools and to generate new tools within a global partnership. However, significant capacity needs to be built for investigators in disease-endemic countries to exploit the genome data. When integrated with existing strategies, the new tools will form an effective package for selective vector control in an effort to prevent mortality and morbidity due to malaria.     

Malaria control priorities and constraints

Each year, there are still between 300-500 million clinical cases of malaria and over one million deaths due to the disease, 90% of which occur in Africa south of the Sahara. In all continents, malaria risk is highest in remote rural areas where poverty abounds, population densities are low and the quality and coverage of the health services are poor or in existent. A sustained impact on the malaria burden can only be achieved through the cost-effective use of current tools, by including malaria in health sector development and inter-sectorial action, by mobilizing malaria control within communities and by investing in new and more effective tools. This paper highlights some of the constraints faced by countries in controlling malaria and outlines the priority activities that are being carried out to address these constraints within both communities and the health services. It aims to be set the scene for the papers of this Centenary book which address some of these issues in more detail.     

Is vaccine the magic bullet for malaria elimination? A reality check

Malaria remains a major health burden especially for the developing countries. Despite concerted efforts at using the current control tools, such as bed nets, anti malarial drugs and vector control measures, the disease is accountable for close to a million deaths annually. Vaccines have been proposed as a necessary addition to the armamentarium that could work towards elimination and eventual eradication of malaria in view of their historical significance in combating infectious diseases. However, because malaria vaccines would work differently depending on the targeted parasite stage, this review addresses the potential impact various malaria vaccine types could have on transmission. Further, because of the wide variation in the epidemiology of malaria across the endemic regions, this paper proposes that the ideal approach to malaria control ought to be tailor-made depending on the specific context. Finally, it suggests that although it is highly desirable to anticipate and aim for malaria elimination and eventual eradication, many affected regions should prioritize reduction of mortality and morbidity before aspiring for elimination.     

Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables. METHODS: Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables. RESULTS: A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities.     

A research agenda for malaria eradication: modeling

Malaria modeling can inform policy and guide research for malaria elimination and eradication from local implementation to global policy. A research and development agenda for malaria modeling is proposed, to support operations and to enhance the broader eradication research agenda. Models are envisioned as an integral part of research, planning, and evaluation, and modelers should ideally be integrated into multidisciplinary teams to update the models iteratively, communicate their appropriate use, and serve the needs of other research scientists, public health specialists, and government officials. A competitive and collaborative framework will result in policy recommendations from multiple, independently derived models and model systems that share harmonized databases. As planned, modeling results will be produced in five priority areas: (1) strategic planning to determine where and when resources should be optimally allocated to achieve eradication; (2) management plans to minimize the evolution of drug and pesticide resistance; (3) impact assessments of new and needed tools to interrupt transmission; (4) technical feasibility assessments to determine appropriate combinations of tools, an associated set of target intervention coverage levels, and the expected timelines for achieving a set of goals in different socio-ecological settings and different health systems; and (5) operational feasibility assessments to weigh the economic costs, capital investments, and human resource capacities required.     

A research agenda for malaria eradication: monitoring, evaluation, and surveillance

Monitoring, evaluation, and surveillance measure how well public health programs operate over time and achieve their goals. As countries approach malaria elimination, these activities will need to shift from measuring reductions in morbidity and mortality, to detecting infections (with or without symptoms) and measuring transmission. Thus, the monitoring and evaluation and surveillance research and development agenda needs to develop the tools and strategies that will replace passive surveillance of morbidity with active and prompt detection of infection, including confirmation of interruption of transmission by detecting present and past infections, particularly in mobile populations. The capacity to assess trends and respond without delay will need to be developed, so that surveillance itself becomes an intervention. Research is also needed to develop sensitive field tests that can detect low levels of parasitaemia, together with strategies for their implementation. Other areas to explore include the rigorous evaluation of the utility of more detailed maps of disease and infection incidence and prevalence, the development of new maps to inform programmatic responses and the use of surveillance technologies based on cell phone or real-time internet Web-based reporting. Because any new strategies for monitoring and evaluation and surveillance for eradication have major implications for program implementation, research is also needed to test systems of delivery for acceptability, feasibility, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and community engagement. Finally, there is a clear need to systematically review the information from past elimination efforts for malaria and other infectious diseases.     

Genetic Surveillance Detects Both Clonal and Epidemic Transmission of Malaria following Enhanced Intervention in Senegal

Using parasite genotyping tools, we screened patients with mild uncomplicated malaria seeking treatment at a clinic in Thiès, Senegal, from 2006 to 2011. We identified a growing frequency of infections caused by genetically identical parasite strains, coincident with increased deployment of malaria control interventions and decreased malaria deaths. Parasite genotypes in some cases persisted clonally across dry seasons. The increase in frequency of genetically identical parasite strains corresponded with decrease in the probability of multiple infections. Further, these observations support evidence of both clonal and epidemic population structures. These data provide the first evidence of a temporal correlation between the appearance of identical parasite types and increased malaria control efforts in Africa, which here included distribution of insecticide treated nets (ITNs), use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria detection, and deployment of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT). Our results imply that genetic surveillance can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control strategies and assist a rational global malaria eradication campaign.     

Strengthening of the clinical research capacity for malaria: a shared responsibility

Malaria remains a major health burden especially for the developing countries. Despite concerted efforts at using the current control tools, such as bed nets, anti malarial drugs and vector control measures, the disease is accountable for close to a million deaths annually. Vaccines have been proposed as a necessary addition to the armamentarium that could work towards elimination and eventual eradication of malaria in view of their historical significance in combating infectious diseases. However, because malaria vaccines would work differently depending on the targeted parasite stage, this review addresses the potential impact various malaria vaccine types could have on transmission. Further, because of the wide variation in the epidemiology of malaria across the endemic regions, this paper proposes that the ideal approach to malaria control ought to be tailor-made depending on the specific context. Finally, it suggests that although it is highly desirable to anticipate and aim for malaria elimination and eventual eradication, many affected regions should prioritize reduction of mortality and morbidity before aspiring for elimination.

     

Reproduction numbers in malaria and their implications

The malariologist Lewis Wendell Hackett famously observed that, "Like chess, (malaria) is played with a few pieces, but is capable of an infinite variety of situations". This paper discusses one such piece, the Red Queen. Red Queen phenomena arise when an intensification of effort leads to a need for further intensification to maintain the new status quo. Such phenomena represent dangers for current strategies to combat the disease. Understanding reproduction numbers is key to understanding these dangers. In this paper, we show why the variability and dynamics of reproduction numbers is important for analyzing the effects of interventions against malaria. This has importance for both formal modeling of malaria and for planning malaria intervention strategies in the field.     

Is the Mbita trap a reliable tool for evaluating the density of anopheline vectors in the highlands of Madagascar?

Background

Malaria can be eradicated from islands. To assess the prospects for eradication of malaria from the island of Príncipe in the Gulf of Guinea, we fitted a mathematical model to age-prevalence curves and thus obtained estimates of the vectorial capacity and of the basic reproductive number (R ₀) for malaria.

Methods

A cross-sectional malariological survey was carried out, in mid-1999, in six communities, comprising circa 17% of the total 6,000 population of the island. All houses in these communities were registered and their mode of construction recorded. Thick and thin blood films were prepared from all consenting individuals. Each individual was asked whether they possessed a mosquito net, whether they had slept under a mosquito net the previous night, whether they were allergic to chloroquine, and whether they had visited the main island of São Tomé since the beginning of the year. Outpatient records from March 1999 until the end of December 2000 were also examined and the age and place of residence of diagnosed cases noted.

Results

203 (19.8%) of the 1,026 individuals examined were found to be infected with Plasmodium falciparum. By fitting the mathematical model of the Garki project to the age-prevalence curve we estimate that the basic reproductive number, R ₀, on the island is approximately 1.6. Over a period of one year, a total of 1,792 P. falciparum cases reported to an outpatient facility at the island's hospital. Overall, 54% of the people interviewed slept under mosquito nets and were at reduced risk of infection. Conversely, people living in houses with openings between the top of the wall and the roof had higher risk of infection.

Conclusion

This high incidence suggests that most of the malaria cases on the island attend the hospital and that treatment of these cases is an important factor reducing the effective rate of transmission. Providing that clinical cases are effectively treated, endemic malaria can probably be eliminated from the island mainly by reducing exposure to the vector with simple measures such as insecticide-treated nets and mosquito-proofing of dwellings. In contrast to traditional malaria eradication strategies, this would avoid the risk of malaria epidemics because the reduction in R ₀ should be sustainable.     

What can the residents of malaria endemic countries do to protect themselves against malaria?

The incidence of malaria may vary substantially between adjacent communities and within an individual community, even in areas of high malaria transmission. Analysis of the factors responsible for these local variations in the incidence of malaria may identify potential control measures. Factors shown to be associated with local protection against malaria in some situations include house position, house design, the use of insect repellents and mechanical barriers such as bednets and curtains. The efficacy of insecticide treated nets and curtains in preventing mortality and morbidity from malaria, at least in the short-term, has been demonstrated convincingly. However, other measures of personal protection have not been evaluated in large trials which have clinical malaria as their endpoint. Such trials are needed to see if new malaria control tools can be identified that will assist current international efforts to improve malaria control, especially in Africa. The millions of non-immune travellers who visit malaria endemic areas each year need to protect themselves against malaria and the ways in which they can do this most effectively have been studied extensively. However, less attention has been paid to the local population of malaria endemic areas. What steps can they adopt to provide personal protection against malaria and how effective are these measures? Clues to which measures might be effective can come from study of the reasons for local variations in the incidence of malaria.     

Epidemiological considerations for malaria reduction by transmission blocking vaccination

Outside of the temperate regions, malaria transmission continues throughout much of the world in a distribution which is not very different to that of one hundred years ago. However, with the notable exception of Africa sub Sahara, the morbidity and mortality due to malaria has generally been reduced to very low levels by comparison with earlier times. In a broad sense the malaria problem today falls into two distinct compartments, 1) how to deal with the remaining problem of malaria in the affected areas outside of sub Saharan Africa and 2) how to manage the, currently, much greater problem of malaria-related morbidity and mortality in Africa sub Sahara. Malaria control campaigns of the past have always placed great emphasis on reducing malaria inoculation rates in the affected populations. This may seem entirely logical, and is, indeed, an absolute requirement where eradication of malaria from an endemic area is the goal. There can, nevertheless, be dangers as well as benefits associated with reducing malaria inoculation rates in previously endemic populations. I discuss here the epidemiological issues which should be taken into account in this respect. I then examine the role that vaccination to reduce malaria inoculation rates in endemic populations--malaria transmission blocking vaccination--could play in malaria control.