Bistability in feedback circuits as a byproduct of evolution of evolvability

Noisy bistable dynamics in gene regulation can underlie stochastic switching and is demonstrated to be beneficial under fluctuating environments. It is not known, however, if fluctuating selection alone can result in bistable dynamics. Using a stochastic model of simple feedback networks, we apply fluctuating selection on gene expression and run in silico evolutionary simulations. We find that independent of the specific nature of the environment–fitness relationship, the main outcome of fluctuating selection is the evolution of increased evolvability in the network; system parameters evolve toward a nonlinear regime where phenotypic diversity is increased and small changes in genotype cause large changes in expression level. In the presence of noise, the evolution of increased nonlinearity results in the emergence and maintenance of bistability. Our results provide the first direct evidence that bistability and stochastic switching in a gene regulatory network can emerge as a mechanism to cope with fluctuating environments. They strongly suggest that such emergence occurs as a byproduct of evolution of evolvability and exploitation of noise by evolution.     

Multiple scales of selection influence the evolutionary emergence of novel pathogens

When pathogens encounter a novel environment, such as a new host species or treatment with an antimicrobial drug, their fitness may be reduced so that adaptation is necessary to avoid extinction. Evolutionary emergence is the process by which new pathogen strains arise in response to such selective pressures. Theoretical studies over the last decade have clarified some determinants of emergence risk, but have neglected the influence of fitness on evolutionary rates and have not accounted for the multiple scales at which pathogens must compete successfully. We present a cross-scale theory for evolutionary emergence, which embeds a mechanistic model of within-host selection into a stochastic model for emergence at the population scale. We explore how fitness landscapes at within-host and between-host scales can interact to influence the probability that a pathogen lineage will emerge successfully. Results show that positive correlations between fitnesses across scales can greatly facilitate emergence, while cross-scale conflicts in selection can lead to evolutionary dead ends. The local genotype space of the initial strain of a pathogen can have disproportionate influence on emergence probability. Our cross-scale model represents a step towards integrating laboratory experiments with field surveillance data to create a rational framework to assess emergence risk.     

The impact of bottlenecks on microbial survival,adaptation, and phenotypic switching in host–pathogen interactions

Microbial pathogens and viruses can often maintain sufficient population diversity to evade a wide range of host immune responses. However, when populations experience bottlenecks, as occurs frequently during initiation of new infections, pathogens require specialized mechanisms to regenerate diversity. We address the evolution of such mechanisms, known as stochastic phenotype switches, which are prevalent in pathogenic bacteria. We analyze a model of pathogen diversification in a changing host environment that accounts for selective bottlenecks, wherein different phenotypes have distinct transmission probabilities between hosts. We show that under stringent bottlenecks, such that only one phenotype can initiate new infections, there exists a threshold stochastic switching rate below which all pathogen lineages go extinct, and above which survival is a near certainty. We determine how quickly stochastic switching rates can evolve by computing a fitness landscape for the evolutionary dynamics of switching rates, and analyzing its dependence on both the stringency of bottlenecks and the duration of within‐host growth periods. We show that increasing the stringency of bottlenecks or decreasing the period of growth results in faster adaptation of switching rates. Our model provides strong theoretical evidence that bottlenecks play a critical role in accelerating the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens.     

Phenotype Switching and Mutations in Random Environments

Cell populations can benefit from changing phenotype when the environment changes. One mechanism for generating these changes is stochastic phenotype switching, whereby cells switch stochastically from one phenotype to another according to genetically determined rates, irrespective of the current environment, with the matching of phenotype to environment then determined by selective pressure. This mechanism has been observed in numerous contexts, but identifying the precise connection between switching rates and environmental changes remains an open problem. Here, we introduce a simple model to study the evolution of phenotype switching in a finite population subject to random environmental shocks. We compare the successes of competing genotypes with different switching rates, and analyze how the optimal switching rates depend on the frequency of environmental changes. If environmental changes are as rare as mutations, then the optimal switching rates mimic the rates of environmental changes. If the environment changes more frequently, then the optimal genotype either maximally favors fitness in the more common environment or has the maximal switching rate to each phenotype. Our results also explain why the optimum is relatively insensitive to fitness in each environment.     

SLOWLY SWITCHING BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTS FACILITATES REVERSE EVOLUTION IN SMALL POPULATIONS

Natural populations must constantly adapt to ever‐changing environmental conditions. A particularly interesting question is whether such adaptations can be reversed by returning the population to an ancestral environment. Such evolutionary reversals have been observed in both natural and laboratory populations. However, the factors that determine the reversibility of evolution are still under debate. The time scales of environmental change vary over a wide range, but little is known about how the rate of environmental change influences the reversibility of evolution. Here, we demonstrate computationally that slowly switching between environments increases the reversibility of evolution for small populations that are subject to only modest clonal interference. For small populations, slow switching reduces the mean number of mutations acquired in a new environment and also increases the probability of reverse evolution at each of these “genetic distances.” As the population size increases, slow switching no longer reduces the genetic distance, thus decreasing the evolutionary reversibility. We confirm this effect using both a phenomenological model of clonal interference and also a Wright–Fisher stochastic simulation that incorporates genetic diversity. Our results suggest that the rate of environmental change is a key determinant of the reversibility of evolution, and provides testable hypotheses for experimental evolution.     

Reservoir interactions and disease emergence

Animal populations act as reservoirs for emerging diseases. In order for transmission to be self-sustaining, a pathogen must have a basic reproduction number R0>1. Following a founding transmission event from an animal reservoir to humans, a pathogen has not yet adapted to its new environment and is likely to have an R0<1. However, subsequent evolution may rescue the pathogen from extinction in its new host. Recent applications of branching process theory investigate how the emergence of a novel pathogen is influenced by the number and rates of intermediate evolutionary steps. In addition, repeated contacts between human and reservoir populations may promote pathogen emergence. This article extends a stepping-stone model of pathogen evolution to include reservoir interactions. We demonstrate that the probability of a founding event culminating in an emerged pathogen can be significantly influenced by ongoing reservoir interactions. While infrequent reservoir interactions do not change the probability of disease emergence, moderately frequent interactions can promote emergence by facilitating adaptation to humans. Frequent reservoir interactions promote emergence even with minimal adaptation to humans. Thus, these results warn against perpetuated interaction between humans and animal reservoirs, as occurs when there are ecological or environmental changes that bring humans into more frequent contact with animal reservoirs.     

MUTANT INVASIONS AND ADAPTIVE DYNAMICS IN VARIABLE ENVIRONMENTS

The evolution of natural organisms is ultimately driven by the invasion and possible fixation of mutant alleles. The invasion process is highly stochastic, however, and the probability of success is generally low, even for advantageous alleles. Additionally, all organisms live in a stochastic environment, which may have a large influence on what alleles are favorable, but also contributes to the uncertainty of the invasion process. We calculate the invasion probability of a beneficial, mutant allele in a monomorphic, large population subject to stochastic environmental fluctuations, taking into account density‐ and frequency‐dependent selection, stochastic population dynamics and temporal autocorrelation of the environment. We treat both discrete and continuous time population dynamics, and allow for overlapping generations in the continuous time case. The results can be generalized to diploid, sexually reproducing organisms embedded in communities of interacting species. We further use these results to derive an extended canonical equation of adaptive dynamics, predicting the rate of evolutionary change of a heritable trait on long evolutionary time scales.     

Switching and Growth for Microbial Populations in Catastrophic Responsive Environments

Phase variation, or stochastic switching between alternative states of gene expression, is common among microbes, and may be important in coping with changing environments. We use a theoretical model to assess whether such switching is a good strategy for growth in environments with occasional catastrophic events. We find that switching can be advantageous, but only when the environment is responsive to the microbial population. In our model, microbes switch randomly between two phenotypic states, with different growth rates. The environment undergoes sudden catastrophes, the probability of which depends on the composition of the population. We derive a simple analytical result for the population growth rate. For a responsive environment, two alternative strategies emerge. In the no-switching strategy, the population maximizes its instantaneous growth rate, regardless of catastrophes. In the switching strategy, the microbial switching rate is tuned to minimize the environmental response. Which of these strategies is most favorable depends on the parameters of the model. Previous studies have shown that microbial switching can be favorable when the environment changes in an unresponsive fashion between several states. Here, we demonstrate an alternative role for phase variation in allowing microbes to maximize their growth in catastrophic responsive environments.     

The role of migration in the evolution of phenotypic switching

Stochastic switching is an example of phenotypic bet hedging, where an individual can switch between different phenotypic states in a fluctuating environment. Although the evolution of stochastic switching has been studied when the environment varies temporally, there has been little theoretical work on the evolution of phenotypic switching under both spatially and temporally fluctuating selection pressures. Here, we explore the interaction of temporal and spatial change in determining the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypic switching. We find that spatial variation in selection is important; when selection pressures are similar across space, migration can decrease the rate of switching, but when selection pressures differ spatially, increasing migration between demes can facilitate the evolution of higher rates of switching. These results may help explain the diverse array of non-genetic contributions to phenotypic variability and phenotypic inheritance observed in both wild and experimental populations.     

E. coli microcosms indicate a tight link between predictability of ecosystem dynamics and diversity

The diversity-stability hypothesis proposes that ecosystem diversity is positively correlated with stability. The impact of ecosystem diversity is, however, still debated. In a microcosm experiment using diverged Escherichia coli cells, we show that the fitness of community members depends on the complexity (number of participants) of the system. Interestingly, the spread of a community member with a superior genotype is mostly stochastic in low-complexity systems, but highly deterministic in a more complex environment. We conclude that system complexity provides a buffer against stochastic effects.     

Optimization and Phenotype Allocation

We study the phenotype allocation problem for the stochastic evolution of a multitype population in a random environment. Our underlying model is a multitype Galton–Watson branching process in a random environment. In the multitype branching model, different types denote different phenotypes of offspring, and offspring distributions denote the allocation strategies. Two possible optimization targets are considered: the long-term growth rate of the population conditioned on nonextinction, and the extinction probability of the lineage. In a simple and biologically motivated case, we derive an explicit formula for the long-term growth rate using the random Perron–Frobenius theorem, and we give an approximation to the extinction probability by a method similar to that developed by Wilkinson. Then we obtain the optimal strategies that maximize the long-term growth rate or minimize the approximate extinction probability, respectively, in a numerical example. It turns out that different optimality criteria can lead to different strategies.     

Solving the chemical master equation using sliding windows

Background  

The chemical master equation (CME) is a system of ordinary differential equations that describes the evolution of a network of chemical reactions as a stochastic process. Its solution yields the probability density vector of the system at each point in time. Solving the CME numerically is in many cases computationally expensive or even infeasible as the number of reachable states can be very large or infinite. We introduce the sliding window method, which computes an approximate solution of the CME by performing a sequence of local analysis steps. In each step, only a manageable subset of states is considered, representing a "window" into the state space. In subsequent steps, the window follows the direction in which the probability mass moves, until the time period of interest has elapsed. We construct the window based on a deterministic approximation of the future behavior of the system by estimating upper and lower bounds on the populations of the chemical species.     

Pathogen and host genotype differently affect pathogen fitness through their effects on different life-history stages

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Adaptation of pathogens to their hosts depends critically on factorsaffecting pathogen reproductive rate. While pathogen reproduction is the end result of an intricate interaction between host and pathogen, the relative contributions of host and pathogen genotype to variation in pathogen life history within the hostare not well understood. Untangling these contributions allows us to identify traits withsufficient genetic variation for selection to act and to identify mechanisms of coevolution between pathogens and their hosts. We investigated the effects of pathogen and host genotype on three life-history components of pathogen fitness; infection efficiency, latent period, and sporulation capacity, in the oat crown rust fungus, Puccinia coronata f.sp. avenae, as it infects oats (Avena sativa). RESULTS: We show that both pathogen and host genotype significantly affect total spore production butdo so through their effects on different life-history stages. Pathogen genotype has the strongest effect on the early stage of infection efficiency, while host genotype most strongly affects the later life-history stages of latent period and sporulation capacity.In addition, host genotype affected the relationship between pathogen density and the later life-history traits oflatent period and sporulation capacity. We did not find evidence of pathogen-by-host genotypic (GxG) interactions. CONCLUSION: Our results illustrate mechanisms by which variation in host populationswill affect the evolution of pathogen lifehistory. Results show that differentpathogen life-history stages have the potential to respond differently to selection by host or pathogen genotypeand suggest mechanisms of antagonistic coevolution. Pathogen populations may adapt tohost genotype through increased infection efficiency while their plant hosts may adapt by limiting the later stages ofpathogen growthand spore production within the host.     

Origins of Stochasticity and Burstiness in High-Dimensional Biochemical Networks

Two major approaches are known in the field of stochastic dynamics of intracellular biochemical networks. The first one places the focus of attention on the fact that many biochemical constituents vitally important for the network functionality may be present only in small quantities within the cell, and therefore the regulatory process is essentially discrete and prone to relatively big fluctuations. The second approach treats the regulatory process as essentially continuous. Complex pseudostochastic behavior in such processes may occur due to multistability and oscillatory motions within limit cycles. In this paper we outline the third scenario of stochasticity in the regulatory process. This scenario is only conceivable in high-dimensional highly nonlinear systems. In particular, we show that burstiness, a well-known phenomenon in the biology of gene expression, is a natural consequence of high dimensionality coupled with high nonlinearity. In mathematical terms, burstiness is associated with heavy-tailed probability distributions of stochastic processes describing the dynamics of the system. We demonstrate how the "shot" noise originates from purely deterministic behavior of the underlying dynamical system. We conclude that the limiting stochastic process may be accurately approximated by the "heavy-tailed" generalized Pareto process which is a direct mathematical expression of burstiness.     

Invasive advance of an advantageous mutation: nucleation theory

For sedentary organisms with localized reproduction, spatially clustered growth drives the invasive advance of a favorable mutation. We model competition between two alleles where recurrent mutation introduces a genotype with a rate of local propagation exceeding the resident's rate. We capture ecologically important properties of the rare invader's stochastic dynamics by assuming discrete individuals and local neighborhood interactions. To understand how individual-level processes may govern population patterns, we invoke the physical theory for nucleation of spatial systems. Nucleation theory discriminates between single-cluster and multi-cluster dynamics. A sufficiently low mutation rate, or a sufficiently small environment, generates single-cluster dynamics, an inherently stochastic process; a favorable mutation advances only if the invader cluster reaches a critical radius. For this mode of invasion, we identify the probability distribution of waiting times until the favored allele advances to competitive dominance, and we ask how the critical cluster size varies as propagation or mortality rates vary. Increasing the mutation rate or system size generates multi-cluster invasion, where spatial averaging produces nearly deterministic global dynamics. For this process, an analytical approximation from nucleation theory, called Avrami's Law, describes the time-dependent behavior of the genotype densities with remarkable accuracy.     

Evolution in alternating environments with tunable interlandscape correlations

Natural populations are often exposed to temporally varying environments. Evolutionary dynamics in varying environments have been extensively studied, although understanding the effects of varying selection pressures remains challenging. Here, we investigate how cycling between a pair of statistically related fitness landscapes affects the evolved fitness of an asexually reproducing population. We construct pairs of fitness landscapes that share global fitness features but are correlated with one another in a tunable way, resulting in landscape pairs with specific correlations. We find that switching between these landscape pairs, depending on the ruggedness of the landscape and the interlandscape correlation, can either increase or decrease steady‐state fitness relative to evolution in single environments. In addition, we show that switching between rugged landscapes often selects for increased fitness in both landscapes, even in situations where the landscapes themselves are anticorrelated. We demonstrate that positively correlated landscapes often possess a shared maximum in both landscapes that allows the population to step through sub‐optimal local fitness maxima that often trap single landscape evolution trajectories. Finally, we demonstrate that switching between anticorrelated paired landscapes leads to ergodic‐like dynamics where each genotype is populated with nonzero probability, dramatically lowering the steady‐state fitness in comparison to single landscape evolution.     

Host–Pathogen Coevolution: The Selective Advantage of Bacillus thuringiensis Virulence and Its Cry Toxin Genes

Reciprocal coevolution between host and pathogen is widely seen as a major driver of evolution and biological innovation. Yet, to date, the underlying genetic mechanisms and associated trait functions that are unique to rapid coevolutionary change are generally unknown. We here combined experimental evolution of the bacterial biocontrol agent Bacillus thuringiensis and its nematode host Caenorhabditis elegans with large-scale phenotyping, whole genome analysis, and functional genetics to demonstrate the selective benefit of pathogen virulence and the underlying toxin genes during the adaptation process. We show that: (i) high virulence was specifically favoured during pathogen–host coevolution rather than pathogen one-sided adaptation to a nonchanging host or to an environment without host; (ii) the pathogen genotype BT-679 with known nematocidal toxin genes and high virulence specifically swept to fixation in all of the independent replicate populations under coevolution but only some under one-sided adaptation; (iii) high virulence in the BT-679-dominated populations correlated with elevated copy numbers of the plasmid containing the nematocidal toxin genes; (iv) loss of virulence in a toxin-plasmid lacking BT-679 isolate was reconstituted by genetic reintroduction or external addition of the toxins. We conclude that sustained coevolution is distinct from unidirectional selection in shaping the pathogen''s genome and life history characteristics. To our knowledge, this study is the first to characterize the pathogen genes involved in coevolutionary adaptation in an animal host–pathogen interaction system.     

Deterministic and stochastic regimes of asexual evolution on rugged fitness landscapes

We study the adaptation dynamics of an initially maladapted asexual population with genotypes represented by binary sequences of length L. The population evolves in a maximally rugged fitness landscape with a large number of local optima. We find that whether the evolutionary trajectory is deterministic or stochastic depends on the effective mutational distance d(eff) up to which the population can spread in genotype space. For d(eff) = L, the deterministic quasi-species theory operates while for d(eff) < 1, the evolution is completely stochastic. Between these two limiting cases, the dynamics are described by a local quasi-species theory below a crossover time T(x) while above T(x) the population gets trapped at a local fitness peak and manages to find a better peak via either stochastic tunneling or double mutations. In the stochastic regime d(eff) < 1, we identify two subregimes associated with clonal interference and uphill adaptive walks, respectively. We argue that our findings are relevant to the interpretation of evolution experiments with microbial populations.     

Kinetics of Genetic Switching into the State of Bacterial Competence

Nonlinear amplification of gene expression of master regulators is essential for cellular differentiation. Here we investigated determinants that control the kinetics of the genetic switching process from the vegetative state (B-state) to the competent state (K-state) of Bacillus subtilis, explicitly including the switching window which controls the probability for competence initiation in a cell population. For individual cells, we found that after initiation of switching, the levels of the master regulator [ComK](t) increased with sigmoid shape and saturation occurred at two distinct levels of [ComK]. We analyzed the switching kinetics into the state with highest [ComK] and found saturation after a switching period of length 1.4 ± 0.3 h. The duration of the switching period was robust against variations in the gene regulatory network of the master regulator, whereas the saturation levels showed large variations between individual isogenic cells. We developed a nonlinear dynamics model, taking into account low-number stochastic effects. The model quantitatively describes the probability and timescale of switching at the single cell level and explains why the ComK level in the K-state is highly sensitive to extrinsic parameter variations. Furthermore, the model predicts a transition from stochastic to deterministic switching at increased production rates of ComK in agreement with experimental data.