Climate-driven changes in abundance and distribution of larvae of oceanic fishes in the southern California region

We examined climatic effects on the geographic distribution and abundance of 34 dominant oceanic fishes in the southern California region using larval fish data collected from the 50‐year long California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) surveys. The oceanic species responses to environmental changes in their geographic distributions were not very pronounced, perhaps because they lived in the deep layer where temperature change was relatively small or because the environmental variation of the CalCOFI region is not strong enough (with an average temperature gradient of the upper 100 m around 91 km °C^?1). Among the 34 taxa, 16 showed a significant distributional shift (median latitude or boundaries) in relation to environmental variables, and eight species significantly shifted their geographic distribution from the 1951–1976 cold period to the 1977–1998 warm period. Interestingly, the vertically migrating taxa more often showed a significant response to environmental variables than the nonmigrating mesopelagic taxa, reflecting the more significant increase in heat content of the upper ocean (<200 m), compared with the deeper zone (300–500 m) where the mesopelagic fishes typically remain. Climate change has significant effects on the abundances of oceanic fishes. Twenty‐four taxa exhibited a significant change in abundance in relation to environmental variables, and 25 taxa, including both warm and cold‐water taxa, showed a significant increase in abundance from the cold to warm period. Analysis of physical data indicated that the surface‐layer (20–200 m) warmed significantly and the isotherms approached shoreward from the cold to the warm period. We further show that the spatial distribution of coastal–neritic fish retreated shoreward and oceanic fish extended shoreward from the cold to warm period. Our results suggest intensified stratification of the southern California region during the warm period may create a suitable habitat for the oceanic species. Moreover, such an unfavorable condition (e.g. changes in food habitat) for coastal–neritic species might result in competitive release for the oceanic fishes to flourish.     

A multivariate analysis of geographic variation in morphology inPersoonia mollis (Proteaceae)

This study highlights the utility and limitations of multivariate procedures for the analysis and taxonomic interpretation of geographic variation within a complex species. Morphological data from herbarium specimens ofPersoonia mollis (Proteceae) were analyzed by two ordination procedures, multidimensional scaling (MDS) and canonical variate analysis (CVA). Support for the earlier recognition of nine infraspecific taxa was found. However, plots of canonical variate scores against latitute or longitude across parapatric subspecies boundaries revealed unexpected phenetic homogeneity within subspecies with sharp transitions between subspecies. The geographic variation in morphology withinP. mollis can be best described as a mosaic of nine recognisably distinct and internally homogeneous allopatric or parapatric taxa, where neighbouring taxa share surprisingly narrow zones of morphological transition at ecotones. The utility of these procedures was highlighted by the recovery of unexpected patterns of variation. However, questions of rank remain unresolved by phenetic analysis alone.     

STABILITY OF A CHROMOSOMAL HYBRID ZONE IN THE CLARKIA NITENS AND CLARKIA SPECIOSA SSP. POLYANTHA COMPLEX (ONAGRACEAE)

Clarkia nitens and Clarkia speciosa polyantha (Onagraceae) are distinct chromosomal taxa differing by at least six reciprocal translocations. Where the taxa have come into contact, a chromosome boundary zone exists characterized by high levels of translocation heterozygosity due to at least 12 new chromosome arrangements which have evolved there. Previous studies have shown that these boundary arrangements are distributed such that they provide for full interfertility between adjacent populations. It was hypothesized that the geographic distributions of each of these arrangements will remain generally stable due largely to the very adverse effect that major changes would have on fertility. Evidence is presented here that over a ten year period the frequencies and geographic distributions of the chromosome arrangements within this boundary region have remained stable. The frequencies of the various chromosomal configurations (nine pairs, ring of four, two rings of four, ring of six, ring of four + ring of six, and ring of eight) from surveys in 1968 and 1978 have been analyzed statistically. In general, the analysis indicates that there have been no detectable changes over the 10-yr period.     

Lack of congruence of genetic and niche divergence in Podarcis hispanicus complex

Niche divergence among closely related lineages can be informative on the ecological and evolutionary processes involved in differentiation, particularly in the case of cryptic species complexes. Here we compared phylogenetic relationships and niche similarity between pairs of lineages included in the Podarcis hispanicus complex to examine patterns of niche divergence and its role in the organization of current diversity patterns, as allopatric, parapatric, and sympatric lineages occur in the Western Mediterranean Basin. First, we used ecological niche models to characterize the realized climatic niche of each Podarcis hispanicus complex lineage based on topographic and climatic variables, to identify important variables, and to test for niche conservatism or divergence between pairs of lineages. Variables related to precipitation generally exhibited the highest contribution to niche models, highlighting the importance of rainfall levels in shaping distributions of Podarcis wall lizards. We found that most forms have significant differences in realized climatic niches that do not follow the pattern of mitochondrial divergence. These results lend support to the hypothesis that genetic divergence across Podarcis hispanicus complex most likely occurred in allopatric conditions, mostly with significant niche divergence. Competition after secondary contact is also suggested by the common occurrence of niche overlap between lineages that exhibit strictly parapatric distribution. The almost continuous distribution of Podarcis lizards in the study area appears to be a result of a combination of complementary suitable niches and competition, which seem two important mechanisms limiting geographic distributions and restricting the existence of extensive contact zones.     

A remarkable case of mosaic parapatry in millipedes

The parapatric boundary between Tasmaniosoma compitale Mesibov, 2010 and Tasmaniosoma hickmanorum Mesibov, 2010 (Polydesmida: Dalodesmidae) in northwest Tasmania was mapped in preparation for field studies of parapatry and speciation. Both millipede species can be collected as adults throughout the year, are often abundant in eucalypt forest and tolerate major habitat disturbance. The parapatric boundary between the two species is ca 100 m wide in well-sampled sections and ca 230 km long. It runs from sea level to 600-700 m elevation, crosses most of the river catchments in northwest Tasmania and several major geological boundaries, and one portion of the boundary runs along a steep rainfall gradient. The location of the boundary is estimated here from scattered sample points using a method based on Delaunay triangulation.     

The niches of nuthatches affect their lineage evolution differently across latitude

Ecological niche evolution can promote or hinder the differentiation of taxa and determine their distribution. Niche‐mediated evolution may differ among climatic regimes, and thus, species that occur across a wide latitudinal range offer a chance to test these heterogeneous evolutionary processes. In this study, we examine (a) how many lineages have evolved across the continent‐wide range of the Eurasian nuthatch (Sitta europaea), (b) whether the lineages’ niches are significantly divergent or conserved and (c) how their niche evolution explains their geographic distribution. Phylogenetic reconstruction and ecological niche models (ENMs) showed that the Eurasian nuthatch contained six parapatric lineages that diverged within 2 Myr and did not share identical climatic niches. However, the niche discrepancy between these distinct lineages was relatively conserved compared with the environmental differences between their ranges and thus was unlikely to drive lineage divergence. The ENMs of southern lineages tended to cross‐predict with their neighbouring lineages whereas those of northern lineages generally matched with their abutting ranges. The coalescence‐based analyses revealed more stable populations for the southern lineages than the northern ones during the last glaciation cycle. In contrast to the overlapping ENMs, the smaller parapatric distribution suggests that the southern lineages might have experienced competitive exclusion to prevent them from becoming sympatric. On the other hand, the northern lineages have expanded their ranges and their current abutting distribution might have resulted from lineages adapting to different climatic conditions in allopatry. This study suggests that niche evolution may affect lineage distribution in different ways across latitude.     

气候变化对阔叶红松林潜在地理分布区的影响

物种地理分布主要取决于它对气候、地形等环境因子的适应性。基于22个环境因子和阔叶红松林的4类主要建群树种——红松、紫椴、水曲柳和蒙古栎的地理分布数据,采用最大熵模型模拟了阔叶红松林的潜在分布区域,并分析决定阔叶红松林地理分布的主要气候和地形因子,最后利用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的3种排放场景(SRES-A2、SRES-A1B、SRES-B1)下2020、2050、2080年的气候数据预测阔叶红松林的未来潜在分布区。结果表明:各树种的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)都大于0.8,说明模型有很好的预测能力;影响阔叶红松林分布的主导环境因子是年降雨量、季节性降雨量、海拔、年平均温度、最湿季度的平均温度。在基准气候条件下,阔叶红松林的高度适宜分布区主要分布在长白山和小兴安岭地区,占研究区总面积的11.69%,低度适宜区面积、不适宜区面积分别占研究区总面积的23%和65.31%。模型预测结果显示,未来在A2、A1B和B1气候情景下,阔叶红松林高度适宜区的南界与北界都向北移动,其面积有缩减的趋势,而低度适宜区的面积有增加的趋势。     

Intraspecific trait variation across elevation predicts a widespread tree species' climate niche and range limits

Global change is widely altering environmental conditions which makes accurately predicting species range limits across natural landscapes critical for conservation and management decisions. If climate pressures along elevation gradients influence the distribution of phenotypic and genetic variation of plant functional traits, then such trait variation may be informative of the selective mechanisms and adaptations that help define climatic niche limits. Using extensive field surveys along 16 elevation transects and a large common garden experiment, we tested whether functional trait variation could predict the climatic niche of a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with a double quantile regression approach. We show that intraspecific variation in plant size, growth, and leaf morphology corresponds with the species' total climate range and certain climatic limits related to temperature and moisture extremes. Moreover, we find evidence of genetic clines and phenotypic plasticity at environmental boundaries, which we use to create geographic predictions of trait variation and maximum values due to climatic constraints across the western US. Overall, our findings show the utility of double quantile regressions for connecting species distributions and climate gradients through trait‐based mechanisms. We highlight how new approaches like ours that incorporate genetic variation in functional traits and their response to climate gradients will lead to a better understanding of plant distributions as well as identifying populations anticipated to be maladapted to future environments.     

中国亚热带地区4种极危冷杉属植物的地理分布特征及其与气候的关系

通过野外实地调查和文献调研, 分析4种极危冷杉属(Abies)植物的地理分布现状和特征, 构建其分布区的气候数据库, 采用国际上常用的研究植被与气候关系的指标和方法, 定量分析冷杉属地理分布与水热条件的关系, 并通过因子分析方法确定影响冷杉属地理分布的限制性气候因子。结果表明: 1)百山祖冷杉(Abies beshanzuensis)、梵净山冷杉(A. fanjingshanensis)、元宝山冷杉(A. yuanbaoshanensis)和资源冷杉(A. beshanzuensis var. ziyuanensis)零星分布于我国亚热带地区, 水平分布范围为25°25′-27°55′ N, 108°42′-119°12′ E , 分布范围狭窄; 垂直分布范围为1363-2390 m, 均分布于山体上部。海拔上限高度随着经度的减小而增加。2)整个分布区的气温较低, 年平均气温为7.4-11.2 ℃; 降水较为充沛, 年降水量为1265.4-1945.7 mm, 其中生长季降水量占74.78%; 湿度较大, 年相对湿度为77%-86%。气候指标范围狭窄, 表明对水热条件要求很高。分布区寒冷指数较低, 限制其垂直向下扩散, 呈现局限分布于山体上部的现状。3) 4种冷杉各分布区的气候条件基本相近, 梵净山冷杉分布区气温相对偏低, 元宝山冷杉分布区湿度相对偏大。4) 3个气候因子对这4种冷杉的地理分布影响较大, 其作用排序为: 低温因子>极端低温因子>湿度因子。在全球气候变暖的大背景下, 这4种冷杉自然分布区的适宜生境将进一步缩小, 直至物种灭绝, 急需开展迁地保护工作。     

Genetic structure and bio-climatic modeling support allopatric over parapatric speciation along a latitudinal gradient

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Four of the five species of Telopea (Proteaceae) are distributed in a latitudinal replacement pattern on the south-eastern Australian mainland. In similar circumstances, a simple allopatric speciation model that identifies the origins of genetic isolation within temporal geographic separation is considered as the default model. However, secondary contact between differentiated lineages can result in similar distributional patterns to those arising from a process of parapatric speciation (where gene flow between lineages remains uninterrupted during differentiation). Our aim was to use the characteristic distributional patterns in Telopea to test whether it reflected the evolutionary models of allopatric or parapatric speciation. Using a combination of genetic evidence and environmental niche modelling, we focused on three main questions: do currently described geographic borders coincide with genetic and environmental boundaries; are there hybrid zones in areas of secondary contact between closely related species; did species distributions contract during the last glacial maximum resulting in distributional gaps even where overlap and hybridisation currently occur? RESULTS: Total genomic DNA was extracted from 619 individuals sampled from 36 populations representing the four species. Seven nuclear microsatellites (nSSR) and six chloroplast microsatellites (cpSSR) were amplified across all populations. Genetic structure and the signature of admixture in overlap zones was described using the Bayesian clustering methods implemented in STUCTURE and NewHybrids respectively. Relationships between chlorotypes were reconstructed as a median-joining network. Environmental niche models were produced for all species using environmental parameters from both the present day and the last glacial maximum (LGM). The nSSR loci amplified a total of 154 alleles, while data for the cpSSR loci produced a network of six chlorotypes. STRUCTURE revealed an optimum number of five clusters corresponding to the four recognised species with the additional division of T. speciosissima into populations north and south of the Shoalhaven River valley. Unexpectedly, the northern disjunct population of T. oreades grouped with T. mongaensis and was identified as a hybrid swarm by the Bayesian assignment test implemented in NewHybrids. Present day and LGM environmental niche models differed dramatically, suggesting that distributions of all species had repeatedly expanded and contracted in response to Pleistocene climatic oscillations and confirming strongly marked historical distributional gaps among taxes. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic structure and bio-climatic modeling results are more consistent with a history of allopatric speciation followed by repeated episodes of secondary contact and localised hybridisation, rather than with parapatric speciation. This study on Telopea shows that the evidence for temporal exclusion of gene flow can be found even outside obvious geographical contexts, and that it is possible to make significant progress towards excluding parapatric speciation as a contributing evolutionary process.     

Hybridization during altitudinal range shifts: nuclear introgression leads to extensive cyto‐nuclear discordance in the fire salamander

Ecological models predict that, in the face of climate change, taxa occupying steep altitudinal gradients will shift their distributions, leading to the contraction or extinction of the high‐elevation (cold‐adapted) taxa. However, hybridization between ecomorphologically divergent taxa commonly occurs in nature and may lead to alternative evolutionary outcomes, such as genetic merger or gene flow at specific genes. We evaluate this hypothesis by studying patterns of divergence and gene flow across three replicate contact zones between high‐ and low‐elevation ecomorphs of the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) that have experienced altitudinal range shifts over the current postglacial period. Strong population structure with high genetic divergence in mitochondrial DNA suggests that vicariant evolution has occurred over several glacial–interglacial cycles and that it has led to cryptic differentiation within ecomorphs. In current parapatric boundaries, we do not find evidence for local extinction and replacement upon postglacial expansion. Instead, parapatric taxa recurrently show discordance between mitochondrial and nuclear markers, suggesting nuclear‐mediated gene flow across contact zones. Isolation with migration models support this hypothesis by showing significant gene flow across all five parapatric boundaries. Together, our results suggest that, while some genomic regions, such as the mitochondria, may follow morphologic species traits and retreat to isolated mountain tops, other genomic regions, such as nuclear markers, may flow across parapatric boundaries, sometimes leading to a complete genetic merger. We show that despite high ecologic and morphologic divergence over prolonged periods of time, hybridization allows for evolutionary outcomes alternative to extinction and replacement of taxa in response to climate change.     

Anatomical wood variation of Buddleja cordata (Buddlejaceae) along its natural range in Mexico

Buddleja cordata is an evergreen species of wide distribution in Mexico that is represented by shrubs and trees. Wood variability of B. cordata was evaluated in relation to plant size as well as latitude, altitude, soils, and climatic data. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) showed that two canonical correlations are significant (Wilks' λ, p<0.0001) and explained 76% of total variance. Redundancy analysis revealed that the first pair of canonical variates are significant, thus the canonical variate, named distribution, represents a gradient of maximum temperature of the warmest period, annual temperature range, and latitude in its area of distribution; whereas the canonical variate named wood represents vessel density, fiber length, and plant size, best associated to the environmental gradient. Vessel density expressed by its distribution in latewood and porosity type showed that ring-porosity is common in individuals from high latitudes. Temperatures below zero or lack of rainfall during several months might induce porosity variability in B. cordata as suggested by CCA, but was not related to phenology since the species is evergreen along its latitudinal range. Plant size was also influenced by extreme temperature and rainfall. Shorter plants are distributed in the northern population or driest sites located in north-central Mexico, and in addition, fiber length followed an allometric relation with individuals' height. Wood characters in B. cordata as for simple perforation plate, helical thickenings, type of intervascular and vessel-ray pits, scanty paratracheal parenchyma, and heterogeneous type IIB rays were not correlated with plant size, climate, and soil parameters or species distribution. These features are common with other species of Buddleja.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Integrating phylogenetics and environmental niche models to explore speciation mechanisms in dendrobatid frogs

We developed an approach that combines distribution data, environmental geographic information system layers, environmental niche models, and phylogenetic information to investigate speciation processes. We used Ecuadorian frogs of the family Dendrobatidae to illustrate our methodology. For dendrobatids there are several cases for which there is significant environmental divergence for allopatric and parapatric lineages. The consistent pattern that many related taxa or nodes exist in distinct environmental space reinforces Lynch and Duellman's hypothesis that differential selection likely played an important role in species differentiation of frogs in the Andes. There is also some evidence that the Río Esmeraldas basin is a geographic barrier to species distributed in low to middle elevations on the western side of the Andes. Another useful aspect of this approach is that it can point to common environmental parameters that correlate with speciation. For dendrobatids, sister clades generally segregate along temperature/elevational and/or seasonality axes. The joint analysis of environmental and geographic data for this group of dendrobatid frogs has identified potentially important speciation mechanisms and specific sister lineages that warrant intensive study to test hypotheses generated in this investigation. Further, the method outlined in this paper will be increasingly useful as knowledge of distribution and phylogeny of tropical species increases.     

Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change

This study assessed potential changes in the distributions of Australian butterfly species in response to global warming. The bioclimatic program, BIOCLIM, was used to determine the current climatic ranges of 77 butterfly species restricted to Australia. We found that the majority of these species had fairly wide climatic ranges in comparison to other taxa, with only 8% of butterfly species having a mean annual temperature range spanning less than 3 °C. The potential changes in the distributions of 24 butterfly species under four climate change scenarios for 2050 were also modelled using BIOCLIM. Results suggested that even species with currently wide climatic ranges may still be vulnerable to climate change; under a very conservative climate change scenario (with a temperature increase of 0.8–1.4 °C by 2050) 88% of species distributions decreased, and 54% of species distributions decreased by at least 20%. Under an extreme scenario (temperature increase of 2.1–3.9 °C by 2050) 92% of species distributions decreased, and 83% of species distributions decreased by at least 50%. Furthermore, the proportion of the current range that was contained within the predicted range decreased from an average of 63% under a very conservative scenario to less than 22% under the most extreme scenario. By assessing the climatic ranges that species are currently exposed to, the extent of potential changes in distributions in response to climate change and details of their life histories, we identified species whose characteristics may make them particularly vulnerable to climate change in the future.     

Radial distributions of Cd in stems of oak trees (Quercus robur L.) re-analyzed after 10 years

Radial distribution patterns of Cd were determined in stems of the same oak trees (Quercus robur L.) in 1983 and again in 1994. On both sampling dates the same distribution patterns were generally observed. Highest concentrations of Cd were found at the sapwood-heart-wood transition. A sharp drop over this boundary towards inner parts of the stems occurred in all trees. In the decade between the two investigations the sapwood-heartwood boundaries had shifted outwards by 9–11 annual rings. The Cd peaks at the boundaries were shifted by approximately the same interval. The results suggest that the described Cd peaks are mobile in a radial direction. The present location of such peaks cannot be used to infer the pollution history of the tree's environment. The Cd accumulation at the sapwood-heartwood boundary is probably affected by physiological processes in the wood. Thus it is concluded that radial distributions of Cd in stems of oak trees are no reliable source of information for retrospective monitoring of past time pollution levels.     

DOES NICHE CONSERVATISM PROMOTE SPECIATION? A CASE STUDY IN NORTH AMERICAN SALAMANDERS

Recent speciation research has generally focused on how lineages that originate in allopatry evolve intrinsic reproductive isolation, or how ecological divergence promotes nonallopatric speciation. However, the ecological basis of allopatric isolation, which underlies the most common geographic mode of speciation, remains poorly understood and largely unstudied. Here, we explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that promote speciation in Desmognathus and Plethodon salamanders from temperate eastern North America. Based on published molecular phylogenetic estimates and the degree of geographic range overlap among extant species, we find strong evidence for a role for geographic isolation in speciation. We then examine the relationship between climatic variation and speciation in 16 sister-taxon pairs using geographic information system maps of climatic variables, new methods for modeling species' potential geographic distributions, and data on geographic patterns of genetic variation. In contrast to recent studies in tropical montane regions, we found no evidence for parapatric speciation along climatic gradients. Instead, many montane sister taxa in the Appalachian Highlands inhabit similar climatic niches and seemingly are allopatric because they are unable to tolerate the climatic conditions in the intervening lowlands. This temporal and spatial-ecological pattern suggests that niche conservatism, rather than niche divergence, plays the primary role in promoting allopatric speciation and montane endemism in this species-rich group of vertebrates. Our results demonstrate that even the relatively subtle climatic differences between montane and lowland habitats in eastern North America may play a key role in the origin of new species.     

Variation in ecophysiological traits might contribute to ecogeographic isolation and divergence between parapatric ecotypes of Mimulus aurantiacus

Many forms of reproductive isolation contribute to speciation, and early‐acting barriers may be especially important, because they have the first opportunity to limit gene flow. Ecogeographic isolation occurs when intrinsic traits of taxa contribute to disjunct geographic distributions, reducing the frequency of intertaxon mating. Characterizing this form of isolation requires knowledge of both the geographic arrangement of suitable habitats in nature and the identification of phenotypes involved in shaping geographic distributions. In Mimulus aurantiacus, red‐ and yellow‐flowered ecotypes are incompletely isolated by divergent selection exerted by different pollinators. However, these emerging taxa are largely isolated spatially, with a hybrid zone occurring along a narrow region of contact. In order to assess whether responses to abiotic conditions contribute to the parapatric distribution of ecotypes, we measured a series of ecophysiological traits from populations along a transect, including drought sensitivity, leaf area and the concentrations of vegetative flavonoids. In contrast to the abrupt transitions in floral phenotypes, we found that ecophysiological traits exhibited a continuous geographic transition that largely mirrors variation in climatological variables. These traits may impede gene flow across a continuous environmental gradient, but they would be unlikely to result in ecotypic divergence alone. Nevertheless, we found a genetic correlation between vegetative and floral traits, providing a potential link between the two forms of isolation. Although neither barrier appears sufficient to cause divergence on its own, the combined impacts of local adaptation to abiotic conditions and regional adaptation to pollinators may interact to drive discontinuous variation in the face of gene flow in this system.     

Refining vegetation simulation models: From plant functional types to bioclimatic affinity groups of plants

Question: How to refine simulations based on a global vegetation model in order to apply it to regional scale? Location: Europe from 35° N to 71° N and 25° W to 70° E. Methods: Geographical ranges of European plants were georeferenced and used with monthly mean climatic data (diurnal temperature ranges, ground frost frequencies, precipitation, relative humidity, rain frequencies, amount of sunshine hours and temperature) and growing degree days to infer climatic boundaries for 320 taxa. We performed a discriminant analysis to define their potential geographic ranges. Hierarchical clustering was computed on potential ranges. Results: Clustering provided 25 Bioclimatic Affinity Groups (BAG) of plants consisting of 13 tree, seven shrub and five herb groups. These B AGs are characterized by different geographical ranges and climatic tolerances and requirements. Conclusion: The use of monthly data instead of annual values improved the prediction of potential distribution ranges and highlighted the importance of climate seasonality for defining the plant groups with accuracy. The B AGs are detailed enough to provide finer reconstructions and simulations of the vegetation at the regional scale.     

A phylogeny for grasshoppers of the genus Chitaura (Orthoptera: Acrididae) from Sulawesi, Indonesia, based on mitochondrial DNA sequence data

The Indonesian island of Sulawesi occupies a central position within the biogeographically complex region known as Wallacea. Its fauna is characterised by a high rate of endemism and a patchwork distribution of taxa within the island. The grasshopper genus Chitaura is a good example having at least ten endemic species with predominantly parapatric distributions. It can be used as a model for determining the origins of Sulawesi taxa and the within-island evolution that has led to the present patterns of distribution. Here we present a phylogenetic hypothesis for 28 individuals within the genus, including individuals of one species from Java and two from the Moluccas, based on DNA sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase 1 gene. Frequent sequence heteroplasmy was observed. The phylogenetic hypothesis is consistent with recent interpretations of the geological history of Sulawesi suggesting separate evolution on the island for 7–14 Myr, possibly since South Sulawesi was connected to Borneo. Within the island, the pattern of genetic divergence is dominated by a strong correlation with geographic distance, with exceptions indicating past or present barriers to dispersal. Colonisation of the Moluccas from North or Central Sulawesi is implied. Levels of genetic divergence are compared with distribution patterns of colour morphs and with possible effects of tectonic movements in the Cenozoic, or Pleistocene climatic, vegetational and sea-level changes.     

Species distribution models contribute to determine the effect of climate and interspecific interactions in moving hybrid zones

Climate is a major factor delimiting species’ distributions. However, biotic interactions may also be prominent in shaping geographical ranges, especially for parapatric species forming hybrid zones. Determining the relative effect of each factor and their interaction of the contact zone location has been difficult due to the lack of broad scale environmental data. Recent developments in species distribution modelling (SDM) now allow disentangling the relative contributions of climate and species’ interactions in hybrid zones and their responses to future climate change. We investigated the moving hybrid zone between the breeding ranges of two parapatric passerines in Europe. We conducted SDMs representing the climatic conditions during the breeding season. Our results show a large mismatch between the realized and potential distributions of the two species, suggesting that interspecific interactions, not climate, account for the present location of the contact zone. The SDM scenarios show that the southerly distributed species, Hippolais polyglotta, might lose large parts of its southern distribution under climate change, but a similar gain of novel habitat along the hybrid zone seems unlikely, because interactions with the other species (H. icterina) constrain its range expansion. Thus, whenever biotic interactions limit range expansion, species may become ‘trapped’ if range loss due to climate change is faster than the movement of the contact zone. An increasing number of moving hybrid zones are being reported, but the proximate causes of movement often remain unclear. In a global context of climate change, we call for more interest in their interactions with climate change.