Effects of Warming on Shrub Abundance and Chemistry Drive Ecosystem-Level Changes in a Forest–Tundra Ecotone

Tundra vegetation is responding rapidly to on-going climate warming. The changes in plant abundance and chemistry might have cascading effects on tundra food webs, but an integrated understanding of how the responses vary between habitats and across environmental gradients is lacking. We assessed responses in plant abundance and plant chemistry to warmer climate, both at species and community levels, in two different habitats. We used a long-term and multisite warming (OTC) experiment in the Scandinavian forest?Ctundra ecotone to investigate (i) changes in plant community composition and (ii) responses in foliar nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon-based secondary compound concentrations in two dominant evergreen dwarf-shrubs (Empetrum hermaphroditum and Vaccinium vitis-idaea) and two deciduous shrubs (Vaccinium myrtillus and Betula nana). We found that initial plant community composition, and the functional traits of these plants, will determine the responsiveness of the community composition, and thus community traits, to experimental warming. Although changes in plant chemistry within species were minor, alterations in plant community composition drive changes in community-level nutrient concentrations. In view of projected climate change, our results suggest that plant abundance will increase in the future, but nutrient concentrations in the tundra field layer vegetation will decrease. These effects are large enough to have knock-on consequences for major ecosystem processes like herbivory and nutrient cycling. The reduced food quality could lead to weaker trophic cascades and weaker top down control of plant community biomass and composition in the future. However, the opposite effects in forest indicate that these changes might be obscured by advancing treeline forests.     

Twenty-two years of warming, fertilisation and shading of subarctic heath shrubs promote secondary growth and plasticity but not primary growth

Most manipulation experiments simulating global change in tundra were short-term or did not measure plant growth directly. Here, we assessed the growth of three shrubs (Cassiope tetragona, Empetrum hermaphroditum and Betula nana) at a subarctic heath in Abisko (Northern Sweden) after 22 years of warming (passive greenhouses), fertilisation (nutrients addition) and shading (hessian fabric), and compare this to observations from the first decade of treatment. We assessed the growth rate of current-year leaves and apical stem (primary growth) and cambial growth (secondary growth), and integrated growth rates with morphological measurements and species coverage. Primary- and total growth of Cassiope and Empetrum were unaffected by manipulations, whereas growth was substantially reduced under fertilisation and shading (but not warming) for Betula. Overall, shrub height and length tended to increase under fertilisation and warming, whereas branching increased mostly in shaded Cassiope. Morphological changes were coupled to increased secondary growth under fertilisation. The species coverage showed a remarkable increase in graminoids in fertilised plots. Shrub response to fertilisation was positive in the short-term but changed over time, likely because of an increased competition with graminoids. More erected postures and large, canopies (requiring enhanced secondary growth for stem reinforcement) likely compensated for the increased light competition in Empetrum and Cassiope but did not avoid growth reduction in the shade intolerant Betula. The impact of warming and shading on shrub growth was more conservative. The lack of growth enhancement under warming suggests the absence of long-term acclimation for processes limiting biomass production. The lack of negative effects of shading on Cassiope was linked to morphological changes increasing the photosynthetic surface. Overall, tundra shrubs showed developmental plasticity over the longer term. However, such plasticity was associated clearly with growth rate trends only in fertilised plots.     

冬季升温对高山生态系统碳氮循环过程的影响

全球温度升高是目前面临的重要环境问题,但存在明显的季节差异性,即冬季升温幅度显著高于夏季的季节非对称性趋势,这在高纬度和高海拔地区更加显著。冬季升温会直接影响积雪覆盖与冰冻层厚度,并引起冻融交替循环的增加,而冬季植物处于休眠状态,这会直接影响土壤中有效氮的吸收与损失,引起土壤有效氮可利用性的变化。然而,关于冬季增温对后续生长季节植物活动、土壤碳氮循环过程的影响等方面的研究仍存在诸多不确定。综述了冬季升温对积雪覆盖与冻融交替循环改变对高山生态系统物质循环的影响,以及冬季升温对土壤碳氮循环、微生物与酶活性的影响,并由此引起的植物物候期、群落结构、生产与养分循环与凋落物分解等生理、生态过程方面的研究进展。在未来的研究中,应针对不同生态系统特点选择合适的冬季增温方式,加强非极地苔原地区关于冬季升温的研究,注重关注冬季升温对植物-土壤微生物之间反馈作用的影响,重点关注冬季升温对生态系统的延滞效应。     

陆地生态系统过程对气候变暖的响应与适应

陆地生态系统包含一系列时空连续、尺度多元且互相联系的生态学过程。由于大部分生态学过程都受到温度调控, 因此气候变暖会对全球陆地生态系统产生深远的影响。近年来, 全球变化生态学的基本科学问题之一是陆地生态系统的关键过程如何响应与适应全球气候变暖。围绕该问题, 该文梳理了近年来的研究进展, 重点关注植物生理生态过程、物候期、群落动态、生产力及其分配、凋落物与土壤有机质分解、养分循环等过程对温度升高的响应与适应机理。通过定量分析近20年来发表于主流期刊的相关论文, 展望了该领域的前沿方向, 包括物种性状对生态系统过程的预测能力, 生物地球化学循环的耦合过程, 极端高温与低温事件的响应与适应机理, 不对称气候变暖的影响机理和基于过程的生态系统模拟预测等。基于这些研究进展, 该文建议进一步研究陆地生态系统如何适应气候变暖, 更多关注我国的特色生态系统类型, 并整合实验、观测或模型等研究手段开展跨尺度的合作研究。     

Impacts of multiple extreme winter warming events on sub‐Arctic heathland: phenology,reproduction, growth,and CO2 flux responses

Extreme weather events can have strong negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme, short‐lived, winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (for instance, 2–10 °C for 2–14 days) but upon return to normal winter climate exposes the ecosystem to much colder temperatures due to the loss of insulating snow. Single events have been shown to reduce plant reproduction and increase shoot mortality, but impacts of multiple events are little understood as are the broader impacts on community structure, growth, carbon balance, and nutrient cycling. To address these issues, we simulated week‐long extreme winter warming events – using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables – for 3 consecutive years in a sub‐Arctic heathland dominated by the dwarf shrubs Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis‐idaea (both evergreen) and Vaccinium myrtillus (deciduous). During the growing seasons after the second and third winter event, spring bud burst was delayed by up to a week for E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus, and berry production reduced by 11–75% and 52–95% for E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus, respectively. Greater shoot mortality occurred in E. hermaphroditum (up to 52%), V. vitis‐idaea (51%), and V. myrtillus (80%). Root growth was reduced by more than 25% but soil nutrient availability remained unaffected. Gross primary productivity was reduced by more than 50% in the summer following the third simulation. Overall, the extent of damage was considerable, and critically plant responses were opposite in direction to the increased growth seen in long‐term summer warming simulations and the ‘greening’ seen for some arctic regions. Given the Arctic is warming more in winter than summer, and extreme events are predicted to become more frequent, this generates large uncertainty in our current understanding of arctic ecosystem responses to climate change.     

Response and adaptation of terrestrial ecosystem processes to climate warming

陆地生态系统包含一系列时空连续、尺度多元且互相联系的生态学过程。由于大部分生态学过程都受到温度调控, 因此气候变暖会对全球陆地生态系统产生深远的影响。近年来, 全球变化生态学的基本科学问题之一是陆地生态系统的关键过程如何响应与适应全球气候变暖。围绕该问题, 该文梳理了近年来的研究进展, 重点关注植物生理生态过程、物候期、群落动态、生产力及其分配、凋落物与土壤有机质分解、养分循环等过程对温度升高的响应与适应机理。通过定量分析近20年来发表于主流期刊的相关论文, 展望了该领域的前沿方向, 包括物种性状对生态系统过程的预测能力, 生物地球化学循环的耦合过程, 极端高温与低温事件的响应与适应机理, 不对称气候变暖的影响机理和基于过程的生态系统模拟预测等。基于这些研究进展, 该文建议进一步研究陆地生态系统如何适应气候变暖, 更多关注我国的特色生态系统类型, 并整合实验、观测或模型等研究手段开展跨尺度的合作研究。     

A synthesis: The role of nutrients as constraints on carbon balances in boreal and arctic regions

As in many ecosystems, carbon (C) cycling in arctic and boreal regions is tightly linked to the cycling of nutrients: nutrients (particularly nitrogen) are mineralized through the process of organic matter decomposition (C mineralization), and nutrient availability strongly constrains ecosystem C gain through primary production. This link between C and nutrient cycles has implications for how northern systems will respond to future climate warming and whether feedbacks to rising concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ from these regions will be positive or negative. Warming is expected to cause a substantial release of C to the atmosphere because of increased decomposition of the large amounts of organic C present in high-latitude soils (a positive feedback to climate warming). However, increased nutrient mineralization associated with this decomposition is expected to stimulate primary production and ecosystem C gain, offsetting or even exceeding C lost through decomposition (a negative feedback to climate warming). Increased primary production with warming is consistent with results of numerous experiments showing increased plant growth with nutrient enrichment. Here we examine key assumptions behind this scenario: (1) temperature is a primary control of decomposition in northern regions, (2) increased decomposition and associated nutrient release are tightly coupled to plant nutrient uptake, and (3) short-term manipulations of temperature and nutrient availability accurately predict long-term responses to climate change.     

全球气候变暖对凋落物分解的影响

凋落物分解作为生态系统核心过程,参与生态系统碳的周转与循环,影响生态系统碳的收支平衡,调控生态系统对全球气候变暖的反馈结果。全球气候变暖通过环境因素、凋落物数量和质量以及分解者3个方面,直接或间接地作用于凋落物分解过程,并进一步影响土壤养分周转和碳库动态。气候变暖可通过升高温度和改变实际蒸散量等环境因素直接作用于凋落物分解。气候变暖可引起植物物种短期内碳、氮和木质素等化学性质的改变以及群落中物种组成的长期变化从而改变凋落物质量。在凋落物分解过程中,土壤分解者亚系统作为主要生命组分(土壤动物和微生物)彼此相互作用、相互协调共同参与调节凋落物的分解过程。凋落物分解可以通过改变土壤微生物量、微生物活动和群落结构来加快微生物养分的固定或矿化,以形成新的养分利用模式来改变土壤有机质从而对气候变化做出响应。未来凋落物分解的研究方向应基于大尺度跨区域分解实验和长期实验,关注多个因子交互影响下,分解过程中碳、氮养分释放、地上/地下凋落物分解生物学过程与联系、分解者亚系统营养级联效应等方面。     

Dwarf shrub and grass vegetation resistant to long‐term experimental warming while microarthropod abundance declines on the Falkland Islands

Dwarf shrubs are a dominant plant type across many regions of the Earth and have hence a large impact on carbon and nutrient cycling rates. Climate change impacts on dwarf shrubs have been extensively studied in the Northern Hemisphere, and there appears to be large variability in response between ecosystem types and regions. In the Southern Hemisphere, less data are available despite dwarf shrub vegetation being a dominant feature of southern South America and mountainous regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present the response of an Empetrum rubrum dwarf shrub and a Poa grass community to 12 years of experimental climate manipulation achieved using open top chambers on the Falkland Islands, a cold temperate island group in the South Atlantic. The dwarf shrub and grass vegetation did not change significantly in cover, biomass or species richness over the 12 years period in response to climate warming scenarios of up to 1°C reflecting annual warming levels predicted in this region for the coming decades. The soil microarthropod community, however, responded with declines in abundance (37%) under warming conditions in the grass community, but no such changes were observed in the dwarf shrub community. Overall, our data indicate that dwarf shrub communities are resistant to the levels of climate warming predicted over the coming decades in the southern South America region and will, therefore, remain a dominant driver of local ecosystem properties.     

Responses of Ecosystem Carbon Cycling to Climate Change Treatments Along an Elevation Gradient

Global temperature increases and precipitation changes are both expected to alter ecosystem carbon (C) cycling. We tested responses of ecosystem C cycling to simulated climate change using field manipulations of temperature and precipitation across a range of grass-dominated ecosystems along an elevation gradient in northern Arizona. In 2002, we transplanted intact plant?Csoil mesocosms to simulate warming and used passive interceptors and collectors to manipulate precipitation. We measured daytime ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem C exchange throughout the growing season in 2008 and 2009. Warming generally stimulated ER and photosynthesis, but had variable effects on daytime net C exchange. Increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C cycling only in the driest ecosystem at the lowest elevation, whereas decreased precipitation showed no effects on ecosystem C cycling across all ecosystems. No significant interaction between temperature and precipitation treatments was observed. Structural equation modeling revealed that in the wetter-than-average year of 2008, changes in ecosystem C cycling were more strongly affected by warming-induced reduction in soil moisture than by altered precipitation. In contrast, during the drier year of 2009, warming induced increase in soil temperature rather than changes in soil moisture determined ecosystem C cycling. Our findings suggest that warming exerted the strongest influence on ecosystem C cycling in both years, by modulating soil moisture in the wet year and soil temperature in the dry year.     

植物群落向土壤有机碳输入及其对气候变暖的响应研究进展

植物群落作为陆地生态系统土壤有机碳的主要来源,可通过地表凋落物分解、细根周转和根系分泌物等方式将光合作用同化的碳输入到土壤中。全球气候变暖正深刻地影响植物群落的分布、结构与功能,改变森林地上和地下凋落物产量与分解速率和根系分泌过程,从而改变植物群落向土壤输入有机碳数量。本文综述了植物群落向土壤有机碳输入过程及其对气候变暖的响应研究进展。研究表明,气候变暖可通过影响植物群落生产直接影响凋落物产量和根系分泌过程,还可通过改变凋落物分解环境条件、凋落物基质质量和分解者群落结构与活性等非生物与生物因子而间接作用于凋落物向土壤有机碳输入过程。气候变暖还可通过影响植物根系性状、根系分泌物化学组成等间接影响植物根系向土壤输入的碳量,但其具体机制还需深入探讨。未来的研究应该关注气候变暖导致植物群落结构改变进而影响土壤有机碳输入的具体机制以及粗木质残体对土壤有机碳输入的贡献,同时还应注重植物凋落物与根系分泌过程的整合研究,以期更全面地认识气候变暖背景下植物群落对土壤碳库及碳循环过程的贡献。     

气候变暖对陆地生态系统碳循环的影响

作为全球变化的主要表现之一,气候变暖对全球陆地生态系统碳循环的影响巨大,揭示这一作用对于精确理解碳循环的过程和相关政策的制定具有重要的指导意义。该文综述了此领域近十几年来的主要研究工作,总结了陆地生态系统碳循环对气候变暖响应的主要内部机制及其过程,简述了相关模型的发展及其主要应用,并指出以往研究中存在的主要问题以及未来研究的主要方向。在气候变暖条件下,陆地生态系统碳循环的变化主要体现在以下几个方面:1)低纬度地区生态系统NPP一般表现为降低,而在中高纬度地区通常表现为增加,而在全球尺度上表现为NPP增加;2)土壤呼吸作用增强,但经过一段时间后表现出一定的适应性;3)高纬度地区的生态系统植被碳库表现为增加趋势,低纬度地区生态系统植被碳库变化不大,或略微降低,在全球尺度上表现为植被碳库增加;4)地表凋落物的产量和分解速率增加;5)土壤有机碳分解加速,进而减少土壤碳储存,同时植被碳库向土壤碳库的流动增加从而增加土壤碳库,这两种作用在不同生态系统的比重不同,在全球尺度上表现为土壤碳库的减少;6)尽管不同生态系统表现各异,总体上全球陆地生态系统表现为一个弱碳源。生物物理模型、生物地理模型和生物地球化学模型陆续被开发出来用于研究工作,并取得了一定的成果,但是研究结果仍然存在很大的不确定性。在未来的数年甚至是数十年间,气候变暖与全球变化的其它表现间的协同影响将是下一步的研究重点,气候变暖和陆地生态系统间的双向反馈作用机制是进行更准确研究的理论基础,生态系统结构和功能对气候变化的适应性是准确理解和预测未来气候情景下陆地生态系统碳循环的前提。     

Permafrost response to temperature rise in carbon and nutrient cycling: Effects from habitat‐specific conditions and factors of warming

Permafrost is experiencing climate warming at a rate that is two times faster than the rest of the Earth''s surface. However, it is still lack of a quantitative basis for predicting the functional stability of permafrost ecosystems in carbon (C) and nutrient cycling. We compiled the data of 708 observations from 89 air‐warming experiments in the Northern Hemisphere and characterized the general effects of temperature increase on permafrost C exchange and balance, biomass production, microbial biomass, soil nutrients, and vegetation N dynamics through a meta‐analysis. Also, an investigation was made on how responses might change with habitat‐specific (e.g., plant functional groups and soil moisture status) conditions and warming variables (e.g., warming phases, levels, and timing). The net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) was found to be downregulated by warming as a result of a stronger sensitivity to warming in respiration (15.6%) than in photosynthesis (6.2%). Vegetation usually responded to warming by investing more C to the belowground, as belowground biomass increased much more (30.1%) than aboveground biomass (2.9%). Warming had a minor effect on microbial biomass. Warming increased soil ammonium and nitrate concentrations. What''s more, a synthesis of 70 observations from 11 herbs and 9 shrubs revealed a 2.5% decline of N in green leaves. Compared with herbs, shrubs had a stronger response to respiration and had a decline in green leaf N to a greater extent. Not only in dry condition did green leaf N decline with warming but also in wet conditions. Warming in nongrowing seasons would negatively affect soil water, C uptake, and biomass production during growing seasons. Permafrost C loss and vegetation N decline may increase with warming levels and timing. Overall, these findings suggest that besides a positive C cycling–climate feedback, there will be a negative feedback between permafrost nutrient cycling and climate warming.     

气候变化和林火干扰对大兴安岭林区地上生物量影响的动态模拟

预测森林地上生物量对气候变化和林火干扰的响应是陆地生态系统碳循环研究的重要内容,气温、降水等因素的改变和气候变暖导致林火干扰强度的变化将会影响森林生态系统的碳库动态.东北森林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化和林火干扰的响应逐渐显现.本文运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化对大兴安岭森林地上生物量的影响,并比较分析了气候变暖对森林地上生物量的直接影响与通过林火干扰强度改变所产生的影响.结果表明: 未来气候变暖和火干扰增强情景下,森林地上生物量增加;当前气候条件和火干扰下,研究区森林地上生物量为(97.14±5.78) t·hm^-2;在B1F2预案下,森林地上生物量均值为(97.93±5.83) t·hm^-2;在A2F3预案下,景观水平第100～150和150～200年模拟时期内的森林地上生物量均值较高,分别为(100.02±3.76)和(110.56±4.08) t·hm^-2.与当前火干扰相比,CF2预案(当前火干扰增加30%)在一定时期使景观水平地上生物量增加(0.56±1.45) t·hm^-2,CF3预案(当前火干扰增加230%)在整个模拟阶段使地上生物量减少(7.39±1.79) t·hm^-2.针叶、阔叶树种对气候变暖的响应存在差异,兴安落叶松和白桦生物量随气候变暖表现为降低趋势,而樟子松、云杉和山杨的地上生物量则随气候变暖表现出不同程度的增加;气候变暖对针阔树种的直接影响具有时滞性,针叶树种响应时间比阔叶树种迟25～50年.研究区森林对高CO₂排放情景下气候变暖和高强度火干扰的共同作用较为敏感,未来将明显改变研究区森林生态系统的树种组成和结构.     

气候变暖对陆地植被-土壤生态系统的影响研究

由于自然因素及人类活动的长期影响,全球气候变化已经成为不容置疑的事实,并对陆地生态系统的植被及土壤产生了深远影响。陆地植被一土壤生态系统在全球气候变化中的反应与适应等过程已成为众多科学家所关注的问题。为更好地了解陆地植被一土壤生态系统对全球气候变化的响应机制,综述了气候变暖对植物的物候与生长、光合特征、生物量生产与分配,以及土壤呼吸等方面的影响,并对分析得到的结论进行了总结。分析指出,随着全球气候变暖,植物个体和群落特征以及土壤特性都会发生相应改变,高海拔地区的植被高度有增加趋势,而低海拔地区的植被可能出现矮化。然而,在以下方面还存有不确定性：（1）气候变暖导致的植被特征变化是否会减弱全球气候变化;（2）在较长时间尺度上气候变暖如何影响植物的物候和生长,特别是植物的体型;（3）高寒生态系统冬季土壤呼吸对气候变暖如何响应。     

Limited effects of early snowmelt on plants,decomposers, and soil nutrients in Arctic tundra soils

In addition to warming temperatures, Arctic ecosystems are responding to climate change with earlier snowmelt and soil thaw. Earlier snowmelt has been examined infrequently in field experiments, and we lack a comprehensive look at belowground responses of the soil biogeochemical system that includes plant roots, decomposers, and soil nutrients. We experimentally advanced the timing of snowmelt in factorial combination with an open‐top chamber warming treatment over a 3‐year period and evaluated the responses of decomposers and nutrient cycling processes. We tested two alternative hypotheses: (a) Early snowmelt and warming advance the timing of root growth and nutrient uptake, altering the timing of microbial and invertebrate activity and key nutrient cycling events; and (b) loss of insulating snow cover damages plants, leading to reductions in root growth and altered biological activity. During the 3 years of our study (2010–2012), we advanced snowmelt by 4, 15, and 10 days, respectively. Despite advancing aboveground plant phenology, particularly in the year with the warmest early‐season temperatures (2012), belowground effects were primarily seen only on the first sampling date of the season or restricted to particular years or soil type. Overall, consistent and substantial responses to early snowmelt were not observed, counter to both of our hypotheses. The data on soil physical conditions, as well interannual comparisons of our results, suggest that this limited response was because of the earlier date of snowmelt that did not coincide with substantially warmer air and soil temperatures as they might in response to a natural climate event. We conclude that the interaction of snowmelt timing with soil temperatures is important to how the ecosystem will respond, but that 1‐ to 2‐week changes in timing of snowmelt alone are not enough to drive season‐long changes in soil microbial and nutrient cycling processes.     

增温增水对草地生态系统碳循环关键过程的影响

生态系统碳循环是生态系统过程的重要组成部分,对碳循环关键过程机理的研究有助于更好地理解生态系统过程。目前,气候变化（全球变暖、降水时空格局变化）对草地生态系统过程产生了重要的影响。综述了气候变化（温度和降水变化）对草地生态系统碳循环关键过程（植物生产力、植物物候、植物根系周转、生态系统呼吸和生态系统净碳交换）的影响,在此基础上指出了目前气候变化（温度和降水变化）控制试验研究的不足,并进一步提出了今后应该加强研究的方向。     

夜间增温和施肥对川西亚高山针叶林两种树苗根际效应的影响

开展植物根际效应对全球变化响应的研究是深入认识根际微生态系统中植物根系与土壤微生物相互作用过程及机制的关键。以川西亚高山针叶林两种主要树种幼苗--云杉(Picea asperata)和岷江冷杉(Abies faxoniana)为研究材料,采用红外辐射模拟增温和外施NH₄NO₃氮肥的方法,研究了夜间增温和施肥对两种幼苗根际效应的影响。结果表明:红外辐射增温导致气温增加了1.62 ℃,土壤5 cm和10 cm层月均温度显著增加了2.89 ℃和3.10℃。增温和施肥处理对两种幼苗不同参数根际效应的影响各不相同,表现为不同程度的正根际效应、负根际效应或者无影响。增温使云杉幼苗根际与非根际土SMB-C含量均显著增加(分别为42.28%和31.02%),非根际土有机碳含量降低了7.03%;而增温对两种幼苗土壤肥力因素根际效应的影响总体并不显著,增温仅对云杉全氮有显著的负根际效应(79.43%),而岷江冷杉通过根际土全氮和SMB-N含量的增加,其根际效应大小在增温处理下显著增强。施肥处理和两因子的联合作用显著提高了两种幼苗的NO^-₃-N、NH⁺₄-N和云杉非根际土SMB-N含量,并使岷江冷杉NH⁺₄-N表现出正根际效应,而云杉SMB-N表现出明显的负根际效应(120.80%和253.06%)。这种响应差异可能与不同植物种类地下碳分配及其植物根系所吸收的养分有关,从而赋予了不同植物种类在未来全球变化背景下可能具有不同的适应力和竞争优势,并进一步对亚高山针叶林地下过程及其早期更新产生潜在影响。     

Niche models tell half the story: spatial context and life‐history traits influence species responses to global change

Aim While niche models are typically used to assess the vulnerability of species to climate change, they have been criticized for their limited assessment of threats other than climate change. We attempt to evaluate this limitation by combining niche models with life‐history models to investigate the relative influence of climate change and a range of fire regimes on the viability of a long‐lived plant population. Specifically, we investigate whether range shift due to climate change is a greater threat to an obligate seeding fire‐prone shrub than altered fire frequency and how these two threatening processes might interact. Location Australian sclerophyll woodland and heathland. Methods The study species is Leucopogon setiger, an obligate seeding fire‐prone shrub. A spatially explicit stochastic matrix model was constructed for this species and linked with a dynamic niche model and fire risk functions representing a suite of average fire return intervals. We compared scenarios with a variety of hypothetical patches, a patch framework based upon current habitat suitability and one with dynamic habitat suitability based on climate change scenarios A1FI and A2. Results Leucopogon setiger was found to be sensitive to fire frequency, with shorter intervals reducing expected minimum abundances (EMAs). Spatial decoupling of fires across the landscape reduced the vulnerability of the species to shortened fire frequencies. Shifting habitat, while reducing EMAs, was less of a threat to the species than frequent fire. Main conclusions Altered fire regime, in particular more frequent fires relative to the historical regime, was predicted to be a strong threat to this species, which may reflect a vulnerability of obligate seeders in general. Range shifts induced by climate change were a secondary threat when habitat reductions were predicted. Incorporating life‐history traits into habitat suitability models by linking species distribution models with population models allowed for the population‐level evaluation of multiple stressors that affect population dynamics and habitat, ultimately providing a greater understanding of the impacts of global change than would be gained by niche models alone. Further investigations of this type could elucidate how particular bioecological factors can affect certain types of species under global change.     

Climatic warming strengthens a positive feedback between alpine shrubs and fire

Climate change is expected to increase fire activity and woody plant encroachment in arctic and alpine landscapes. However, the extent to which these increases interact to affect the structure, function and composition of alpine ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we use field surveys and experimental manipulations to examine how warming and fire affect recruitment, seedling growth and seedling survival in four dominant Australian alpine shrubs. We found that fire increased establishment of shrub seedlings by as much as 33‐fold. Experimental warming also doubled growth rates of tall shrub seedlings and could potentially increase their survival. By contrast, warming had no effect on shrub recruitment, postfire tussock regeneration, or how tussock grass affected shrub seedling growth and survival. These findings indicate that warming, coupled with more frequent or severe fires, will likely result in an increase in the cover and abundance of evergreen shrubs. Given that shrubs are one of the most flammable components in alpine and tundra environments, warming is likely to strengthen an existing feedback between woody species abundance and fire in these ecosystems.