气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅴ.宁夏农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961—2009年宁夏21个气象站点的气象资料,分析了宁夏各区农业气候资源的时空变化趋势.结果表明：研究期间,宁夏各地气温逐渐升高,呈北高南低的空间分布特征,年均气温的气候倾向率为0.4 ℃·(10 a)^-1;大部分地区年降水量呈逐渐减少趋势,年降水量的气候倾向率为4.26 mm·(10 a)^-1;无霜期和作物生长季天数随着气候变暖逐渐延长;≥10 ℃积温在3200 ℃·d以上的区域向南扩展,宁夏适宜种植中晚熟水稻的区域有所扩大;2001—2009年,宁夏大部分地区适宜种植冬小麦,全区各地几乎都适宜种植春小麦;宁夏南部山区各地7月平均气温≤20 ℃的区域面积逐渐缩小,适宜种植马铃薯的地域也随之缩小.     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅰ.华南地区农业气候资源时空变化特征

基于华南地区1961-2007年66个气象台站的地面观测资料,对华南地区全年及温度生长期内热量、光照和水分的时空变化特征进行了分析.结果表明：1961-2007年,华南地区年均气温以0.20 ℃·（10 a）^-1的趋势上升,温度生长期内积温的气候倾向率［平均为98 ℃·d·（10 a）^-1］由北向南递增;1981-2007年,6200～7500 ℃·d和7500～8000 ℃·d积温带面积分别较1961-1980年增加了1.5×10⁴和4.7×10⁴ km².研究期间,华南地区全年和温度生长期日照时数分别以-57和-38 h·（10 a）^-1的速率递减;与1961-1980年相比,1981-2007年全年和温度生长期内≥1800 h日照时数的区域面积均呈减少趋势.全年和温度生长期降水量均呈略微增加趋势,但不同地区的增减幅度明显不同.全年及温度生长期分别有62%和52%站点参考作物蒸散量的气候倾向率为负值;与1961-1980年相比,1981-2007年全年和温度生长期参考作物蒸散量均表现为高值区缩小、低值区扩大.全年湿润指数的平均气候倾向率为0.01·（10 a）^-1,70%站点的年湿润指数呈上升趋势;与1961-1980年相比,1981-2007年温度生长期内湿润指数增加了0.02,53%站点的气候倾向率为正值.研究期间华南地区气候变化总体表现为暖湿趋势,这将对该地区作物种植制度、作物产量和农业结构等产生影响.     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅲ.西北干旱区农业气候资源时空变化特征

基于1961-2007年中国西北干旱区78个气象台站的气象资料,分析了西北干旱区全年、喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内热量、光照和水分的时空变化特征.结果表明：研究期间,西北干旱区年均气温呈上升趋势,其气候倾向率为0.35 ℃·(10 a)^-1;喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内积温总体呈升高趋势,其气候倾向率分别为67和50 ℃·d·(10 a)^-1;研究区大部站点的年日照时数呈明显下降趋势,除新疆大部地区和宁夏平原以东的喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内日照时数呈降低趋势外,其余地区均呈升高趋势;研究区大部地区的全年参考作物蒸散量呈下降趋势,而喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内的参考作物蒸散量则表现为研究区西部下降、东部上升.与1961-1980年相比,1981-2007年研究区大部地区全年及喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内的降水量呈增加趋势,其增幅的空间变化趋势均由西北向东南递减.     

黄土高原半干旱区气候变暖对胡麻生育和水分利用效率的影响

利用黄土高原半干旱区胡麻生长发育定位观测资料和同期气象观测资料,分析气候变化对胡麻生长发育的影响,以及胡麻水分利用效率与气象条件的关系.结果表明:研究区年降水量呈下降趋势,其气候倾向率为-15.80 mm·(10 a)-1,年降水量存在3 a、6 a的周期变化;年均气温呈上升趋势,其气候倾向率为0.36℃·(10 a)-1;作物生长季干燥指数呈显著上升趋势,其气候倾向率为0.12· (10a)-1,20世纪90年代初至2009年明显趋于干旱化.研究区胡麻全生育期天数为120～150 d,≥0℃积温为1700～2100℃·d,降水量为200～250mm,日照时数为1000～1300h.影响黄土高原半干旱雨养农业区胡麻生长发育的主导气象因子是气温和降水量.气温增高导致胡麻生育前期的营养生长阶段缩短;而气温增高、降水量减少,则导致生殖生长阶段延长,从而使全生育期延长.除出苗期和成熟期外,气温对其余时期的胡麻产量形成均表现为负效应,现蕾期对气温变化十分敏感;除开花期外,其余时段降水量对胡麻产量形成均为正效应,胡麻出苗期对降水量变化十分敏感.胡麻水分利用率与胡麻出苗期气温、日照时数和现蕾-成熟期干燥度呈显著正相关,与胡麻现蕾-成熟期降水量呈显著负相关.研究区5-7月干燥度是影响胡麻水分利用率的关键因子.     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅳ.黄淮海平原半湿润暖温麦-玉两熟灌溉农区农业气候资源时空变化特征

基于中国黄淮海平原半湿润暖温麦-玉两熟灌溉农区66个气象台站1961-2007年的气候资料,比较分析了该区域内1961-1980年和1981-2007年2个时段喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期长度以及温度生长期内的活动积温、日照时数、降水量、参考作物蒸散量和干燥度等农业气候资源的时空变化特征.结果表明： 随着气候变暖,与1961-1980年的平均状况相比,1981-2007年研究区域喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期均呈延长趋势,分别延长了7.4和6.9 d;≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃积温总体表现为增加趋势,其气候倾向率分别为4.0～137.0和1.0～142.0 ℃·d·(10 a)^-1;喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期日照时数均呈显著下降趋势;全区仅安徽省北部和河南省东南部喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内降水量呈增加趋势,其他地区均呈减少趋势,且以河北省、山东省北部的减幅最明显;全区大部分区域喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内参考作物蒸散量呈下降趋势,干燥度呈增加趋势.     

长江中下游地区农业气候资源时空变化特征

以1981年为时间节点,将1961-2007年分为1961-1980年（时段Ⅰ）和1981-2007年（时段Ⅱ）两个时间段,分析和比较两个时段的农业气候资源变化特征.结果表明：气候变暖背景下,长江中下游地区1961-2007年温度生长期内≥10 ℃积温气候倾向率平均为74 ℃·d·10 a^-1;时段Ⅱ≥10 ℃积温较时段Ⅰ平均增加了124 ℃·d;与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ双季稻的安全种植界限向北推移了0.79个纬度.1961-2007年温度生长期内降水量总体表现为增加趋势;与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ降水量增加了1.6%,降水量≥767 mm（双季稻正常生长的需水量）的面积增加了1.13×10.4 km².时段Ⅱ温度生长期内日照时数较时段Ⅰ平均减少了8.1%;近47年中91.1%的气象站点日照时数表现为减少趋势.与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ温度生长期内参考作物蒸散量呈略微减少趋势,其低值区扩大、高值区缩小.时段Ⅱ稳定通过10 ℃初日平均较时段Ⅰ提前了2 d,而时段Ⅱ≥20 ℃终日平均较时段Ⅰ推迟了2 d,两个时段 ≥22 ℃终日基本相同.     

气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961-2007年中国东北三省72个气象台站的气象资料,分析了东北三省全年及温度生长期内的平均气温、≥10 ℃积温、降水量、日照时数和参考作物蒸散量等农业气候资源的变化特征.结果表明：研究期间,东北三省年均气温总体呈升高趋势,其气候倾向率为0.38 ℃·10 a^-1;温度生长期内≥10 ℃积温同样呈上升趋势,且积温带逐渐北移东扩,全区高于3200 ℃·d积温带面积增加了2.2×10⁴ km²,2800～3200 ℃·d积温带北移0.85°、东移0.67°,2400～2800 ℃·d积温带北移1.1°;东北三省年日照时数显著下降,且以松嫩平原东部、吉林省中西部平原、辽河平原西部的减少尤为明显,全区年日照时数高于2800 h的区域面积由13.6×10⁴ km²缩小到4.1×10⁴ km²,2600～2800 h的区域向西推进了1.5°;全区温度生长期内日照时数平均为1174 h,与1961-1980年相比,1981-2007年温度生长期内的日照时数高值区明显减少,日照时数1200～1400 h的区域向西推进了0.9°;1961-2007年间,研究区年降水量及温度生长期内降水量均呈下降趋势;黑龙江省全年参考作物蒸散量整体呈增加趋势,吉林省中西部平原区有所减小、东部山区呈增加趋势,辽宁省均呈减小趋势,与1961-1980年的年均值相比,1981-2007年年参考作物蒸散量高于900 mm区域向西推移了约1°;黑龙江省和吉林省绝大部分区域温度生长期内参考作物蒸散量逐年增加,而辽宁省绝大部分区域以小于14 mm·10 a^-1的幅度在减少.     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅱ.西南地区农业气候资源时空变化特征

基于1961—2007年中国西南地区88个气象台站的地面观测资料,结合统计方法和GIS软件,分析了全年及温度生长期内农业气候资源的时空变化特征.结果表明:1961—2007年,西南地区年平均气温呈上升趋势,平均增速为0.18℃.(10 a)-1;温度生长期内≥10℃和≥15℃积温均呈增加趋势,平均增速分别为55.3℃.d.(10 a)-1和37℃.d.(10a)-1.全区年日照时数呈现由西向东逐渐减少的特征,且东部的减少趋势较西部更显著;温度生长期内日照时数整体呈增加趋势,但空间差异较大.全区降水资源总体减少,年降水量和温度生长期内降水量的平均下降速率分别为10 mm.(10 a)-1和8 mm.(10 a)-1.全区年参考作物蒸散量普遍降低,其减幅小于年降水量的变化趋势,约53%的站点温度生长期内参考作物蒸散量减少.     

基于干旱指数的宁夏干旱时空变化特征及其Morlet小波分析

基于宁夏9个气象站点1961—2012年逐日气温、降水、风速、日照时数和相对湿度数据,应用Penman-Monteith模型、Arc GIS反距离加权插值、突变检验和Morlet小波等方法,分析其参考作物蒸散量、降水量和干旱指数(AI)时空变化及其影响因素。结果表明:近52年来,宁夏潜在蒸散量(ET0)和降水量在波动中呈降低趋势,倾向率为分别-8.64 mm·10 a-1和-10.04 mm·10 a-1,AI指数则在波动中略呈增加趋势,倾向率为0.01 10 a-1,表明宁夏气候有变干的趋势;从年内分布看,ET0和降水量呈单峰型分布,峰值分别为8月的118.12 mm和7月的66.82 mm,而AI指数呈谷状分布,以8月最小,为0.42;AI指数空间差异明显,呈自南向北递增趋势,表明气候自南向北依次变干;宁夏ET0、降水量和AI指数均在1970年末期、1980年早期和1980年中期发生突变,均存在21 a中尺度的优势周期,并与太阳黑子活动22 a的海尔(磁)准周期基本一致,短周期为3、5、7 a,可能受大气环流和厄尔尼诺等影响。     

气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅶ.青藏高原干旱半干旱区农业气候资源变化特征

基于青藏高原干旱半干旱区1961-2007年55个气象站点地面观测资料,利用五日滑动平均法及GIS软件的IDW模块进行栅格处理,对比分析了研究区1961-1980年（时段Ⅰ）和1981-2007年（时段Ⅱ）各气候要素的时空变化特征及其气候倾向率.结果表明：1961-2007年,研究区喜凉作物生长季内日照时数的变化不明显,喜温作物生长季内日照时数呈增加趋势,但空间分布的变化较小;与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ喜温作物生长季内积温值≥1500 ℃·d的地区面积扩大33.9%;降水量的空间分布总体表现为由东南低地向西北内陆逐渐递减,研究期间青藏高原东南部喜凉作物生长季内降水量均达到800 mm,其他地区喜凉作物生长季内降水量的气候倾向率有正有负,变幅相对较小,与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ喜温作物生长季内降水量≥400 mm的分布面积扩大了40%;参考作物蒸散量（ET₀）总体略有增加,其空间分布格局与日照时数和积温的分布相似,时段Ⅱ较时段Ⅰ喜温作物生长季内ET₀≥400 mm的分布面积扩大了35.7%.研究期间,青藏高原作物生长季内的热量与降水资源有一定幅度增加,这对农牧业生产非常有利,但ET₀的增大表明潜在蒸发增大,需进一步加强研究气候变化对该区域农牧业生产带来的可能影响.     

Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. III. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in Northwest Arid Area

By using the 1961-2007 daily weather data from 78 meteorological stations in Northwest Arid Area, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural climate resources, i.e., heat, light, and precipitation, in the area, both in the whole year and in temperature-defined growth seasons of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops. In 1961-2007, the mean annual temperature in the area had an increasing trend, and the climate tendency rate was 0.35 degrees C x (10 a)(-1). The accumulated temperature in temperature-defined growth seasons of both chimonophilous and thermophilic crops also had an increasing trend, and the climate tendency rate was 67 and 50 degrees C d x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual sunshine hours in most stations of the research area had an obvious decreasing trend, but the sunshine hours during the temperature-defined growth seasons of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops had an increasing trend, except that in most regions of Xin-jiang and east Ningxia Plain. The annual reference evapotranspiration in most regions of the study area tended to decrease, while the reference evapotranspiration during temperature-defined growth seasons of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops tended to decrease in the west but increase in the east. Compared with that in 1961-1980, the precipitation both in the whole year and in temperature-defined growth seasons of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in 1981-2007 increased, and the increment reduced progressively from the northwest to the southeast.     

Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change: IX. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of China agricultural climate resources

Based on the 1961-2007 ground surface meteorological data from 558 meteorological stations in China, this paper analyzed the differences of agricultural climate resources in China different regions, and compared the change characteristics of the agricultural climate resources in 1961-1980 (period I) and 1981-2007 (period II), taking the year 1981 as the time node. As compared with period I, the mean annual temperature in China in period II increased by 0.6 degrees C, and the > or = 0 degrees C active accumulated temperature in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops and the > or = 10 degrees C active accumulated temperature in the growth periods of thermophilic crops increased averagely by 123.3 degrees C x d and 125.9 degrees C x d, respectively. In 1961-2007, the mean annual temperature increased most in Northeast China, and the > or = 10 degrees C active accumulated temperature in the growth periods of thermophilic crops increased most in South China. The whole year sunshine hours and the sunshine hours in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops and of thermophilic crops in period II decreased by 125.7 h, 32.2 h, and 53.6 h, respectively, compared with those in period I. In 1961-2007, the annual sunshine hours decreased most in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, while the sunshine hours in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops and of thermophilic crops decreased most in North China and South China, respectively. In the whole year and in the growth periods of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops, both the precipitation and the reference crop evapotranspiration in this country all showed a decreasing trend, with the largest decrement in the precipitation in the whole year and in the growth periods of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in North China, the largest decrement in the reference crop evapotranspiration in the whole year and in the growth periods of thermophilic crops in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, and the largest decrement in the reference crop evapotranspiration in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops in Northwest China. In 1961-2007, the climate in China in the whole year and in the growth periods of thermophilic crops showed an overall tendency of warm and dry, and the climate in the growth periods of thermophilic crops became warm and dry in Southwest China, North China, and Northeast China, but warm and wet in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, Northwest China, and South China, whereas the climate in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops became warm and dry in North China, but became warm and wet in Northwest China.     

Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. IV. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in sub-humid warm-temperate irrigated wheat-maize agricultural area of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

Based on the 1961-2007 observation data from 66 meteorological stations in the sub-humid and warm-temperate irrigated wheat-maize agricultural area of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of agro-climate resources for chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in the area in 1961-1980 and 1981-2007. The analyzed items included the length of temperature-defined growth season and the active accumulative temperature, sunshine hours, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and aridity index during the temperature-defined growth season. With climate warming, the length of temperature-defined growth season of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in the area in 1981-2007 extended by 7. 4 d and 6. 9 d, and the > or = 0 degrees C and > or = 10 degrees C accumulative temperature increased at a rate of 4.0-137.0 and 1.0-142.0 degrees C d (10 a)(-1), respectively, compared with those in 1961-1980. The sunshine hours during the temperature-defined growth season of the crops decreased markedly; and the precipitation during the temperature-defined growing season decreased in most parts of the area, being obvious in Hebei and north Shandong Province, but increased in north Anhui and southeast Henan Province. In most parts of the area, the reference evapotranspiration of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops during their temperature-defined growth season decreased, and the aridity index increased.     

Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. VII. Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in arid and semi-arid region of Tibet Plateau

Based on the 1961-2007 ground observation data from 55 meteorological stations in arid and semi-arid region of Tibetan Plateau, and by using 5-day moving average method and ArcGIS-IDW module, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics and climatic trend rates of agricultural climate resources in the region in 1961-1980 (period I) and 1981-2007 (period II). In 1961-2007, the sunshine duration during the growth season of chimonophilous crops in the study region changed less, while that during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased but with little spatial change. Comparing with those in period I, the average value of accumulated temperature in period II showed an increasing trend, and the area with > or = 1500 degrees C x d during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased by 33.9%. The precipitation decreased gradually from southeast to northwest. During the growth season of chimonophilous crops, the precipitation in the southeast in the two periods reached 800 mm, but the climatic trend in other areas was positive or negative, and the change rate was small. The area with precipitation > or = 400 mm during the growth season of thermophilic crops in period II expanded by 40%, as compared in period I. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) generally increased slightly, and shared the similar spatial distribution pattern with sunshine duration and accumulated temperature. During the growth season of thermophilic crops, the area with ET0 > or = 400 mm in period II expanded by 35.7%, compared with that in period I. In the study period, the heat and precipitation resources during crop growth seasons in Tibet Plateau increased in a certain degree, which was very beneficial to the agriculture-stock production. However, the increase of reference crop evapotranspitation indicated the increase of potential evaporation. Thereby, the researches about the possible effects of climate change on agriculture-stock production should be further strengthened.     

1954—2005年中国北方针叶林分布区的气候变化特征

基于中国北方针叶林(兴安落叶松林)分布区8个气象观测站的气象资料,分析了1954—2005年气温和降水的变化特征.结果表明：研究期间,中国北方针叶林分布区的气温以0.38 ℃·(10 a)^-1的速度上升,远大于全球近50年来0.13 ℃·(10 a)^-1的平均增温速率.尽管夏、秋季的气温呈上升趋势,但不显著;而冬、春季的增温显著(P<0.01);最高年平均气温(0.37 ℃·(10 a)^-1)与最低年平均气温(0.54 ℃·(10 a)^-1)均呈极显著的增加趋势(P<0.01).降水量年际间波动较大,但没有明显的变化趋势;各季节降水量也没有明显的变化规律,其中春、秋、冬季的降水日数有增加趋势,但没有达到显著水平,而夏季的降水日数呈显著减少趋势(P<0.05);各季降水强度均呈增加趋势,其中夏季(P<0.05)和冬季(P<0.01)的变化达到了显著水平.     

1961—2017年攀西烤烟生育期农业气候资源变化特征

研究当地主要农作物生育期的农业气候资源变化特征,对于区域农业可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究基于四川攀西地区1961—2017年15个烤烟种植县气象站点数据,采用平均温度、平均温度日较差、缺水率和总辐射4个气候因子,分析攀西烤烟种植区全生育期及不同生育阶段光、温、水等农业气候资源时空分布状况。结果表明: 1961—2017年,攀西烤烟全生育期平均温度呈现由南至北逐渐降低的分布特点,大部分区域呈升高趋势,且显著升温的区域占播种总面积的54.5%;攀西东部大部及中部部分区域平均温度日较差呈上升趋势,且显著增大的区域占总面积的76.4%;攀西农区烤烟缺水率从南到北逐渐降低,总体呈上升趋势;攀西农区总辐射量呈现从西南到东北逐步减小趋势,其中,西南部气候倾向率为正值。研究期间,攀西烤烟平均温度在旺长-开始成熟期最高,总体均呈升高趋势;平均温度日较差在移栽-蹲苗期最大;移栽-蹲苗期的缺水率最大;开始成熟-成熟期的总辐射量最大,蹲苗-旺长期略有增长。