褐飞虱种群动态的模拟模型(英文)

本文根据种群生命系统的概念和分析,组建了模拟褐飞虱(Nilaparvata lugens St(?)l)种群动态的计算机模型。该模型包括一个多列矩阵和一组差分方程。多列矩阵用于描述褐飞虱种群的龄期重叠现象及其年龄——虫态结构;差分方程用于计算种群的增长过程。在建模时,我们把10日度作为褐飞虱发育的一个年龄,用天作为模拟的时间步长,同时利用了褐飞虱特定龄期的发育速率,根据生命表数据计算的特定龄期存活率、长翅型成虫的迁飞类型及数量、雌成虫的生殖力等有关资料。经过采用福建省龙海、福州和沙县三个地方1896—1990的实际观测资料与模型的预测结果进行比较,验证了该模型的有效性和准确性;通过改变模型的主要输入变量,得到了各种不同的输出结果,由此对模型的行为及真实性作了分析。笔者认为该模型可用于进一步研究褐飞虱的生物学、生态学以及综合治理的基础,稍作改进,也可用于描述其它昆虫的种群生命系统。     

高温对稻褐飞虱发育与生殖的影响

通过高温处理及交配产卵实验,探讨了高温对稻褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens (Stal)发育与生殖的影响。研究了不同高温条件对褐飞虱若虫发育历期、产卵量、产卵前期、寿命等生物学特性的影响。34℃以上高温导致褐飞虱若虫发育历期延长。高温处理4龄若虫使羽化后的雌成虫产卵量减少。高温处理不同日龄雌成虫也致使其产卵量减少,其中以1日龄短翅型、3日龄长翅型的产卵量影响最大。高温处理后褐飞虱寿命缩短。高温恒温处理,对短翅型雌成虫的产卵前期影响不大,但能延长长翅型雌成虫的产卵前期;而高温变温处理致使短、长翅型雌成虫的产卵前期均延长。高温变温对褐飞虱生殖的影响程度大于高温恒温。高温处理组雌、雄成虫与对照组相应的成虫交配试验表明,高温对雌性的影响大于雄性。实验初步确定34℃为对褐飞虱发育与生殖产生影响的临界温度。     

白背飞虱的迁飞生物学:江苏苏州个例分析

对苏州市吴中区1984—2002年灯诱数据的分析表明,白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera(Horváth)的灯下始见期一般在6月上旬,而主迁峰日则一般出现在7月上旬。1996年后,始见期有提前的趋势。对18年灯诱虫量的时间序列分析表明,田间迁入代虫量与6月份的灯诱虫量相关,田间第1代虫量与迁入代虫量相关,第2代则只与田间第1代和8月份的诱虫量相关。对1986—2002年吴中区白背飞虱田间虫量的分析表明,白背飞虱在田间一般要完成2个世代,20世纪90年代中期之后会出现第3代,表现出低迁入率(平均百穴21头)、高增殖倍数(G1/G0在30～200倍左右)和高峰值密度(16年平均百穴3200头)的种群特征。此间白背飞虱长翅型成虫的比率不高,迁入后便像褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens(Stl)那样形成了滞留本地的增殖代(7月20日到8月10日)和以本地滞留为害与部分迁出个体混合而成的主害代(8月15日到9月5日),直到8月下旬和9月上中旬,其长翅型比率才会有大幅回升开始回迁,呈现出翅型长-短-长的变化模式。     

影响褐飞虱猖獗和为害的因素

本文是1977—1983年关于褐飞虱(Niloparvata Lugens St?l)迁飞和猖獗因素研究和观察的结果。褐飞虱在我省田间不能安全越冬,早稻上最初虫源系由冬季气温较高的南部地区依次长距离迁飞而来。连作晚稻一般受害不重,虫口高峰即为害盛期是在晚稻抽穗以后。造成在晚稻上猖獗的虫源固有本地的和陆续由南方迁入的,但主要系在晚稻移栽以后的8月中旬,由西南一季中稻区长距离迁入的。至于晚稻后期的受害程度,在这7年的虫口条件下,主要受后期尤其9月高温的影响。褐飞虱是一种比较典型的南方性害虫,即各虫态的发育历期随着温度升高而缩短,在25°—30℃适温条件下,20天左右即可完成一代,加之产卵量多,所以在晚稻上短时期内即能猖獗成灾。构成我省晚稻虫口基数的主要虫源,系夏季以后8月中旬迁入的虫口,决定晚稻受害程度的主要系9月份高温。但是造成褐飞虱猖獗的根本原因是感虫品种的推广和有利于虫口上升的耕作制度。     

Cover Caption

The brown planthopper (BPH) is the most important insect pest of rice in Asia. This specialist herbivore feeds on the phloem of the rice plant. Heavy infestations of BPH cause ‘hopperburn’, which can result in dramatic yield loss and eventually lead to death of the plant. BPH is dimorphic, with fully winged ‘macropterous’ (blackish‐brown color) and truncate‐winged ‘brachypterous’ (brown color) forms. The macropterous are potentially migrants. Pattern identification of trace elements in BPH bodies is feasible for determining the source area of its immigration. See pages 21–29. Photo provided by Qi‐Yi Tang and Sheng‐Guang Xia.     

Molecular characterization of the flightin gene in the wing-dimorphic planthopper,Nilaparvata lugens,and its evolution in Pancrustacea

Flightin was initially identified in Drosophila melanogaster. Previous work has shown that Drosophila flightin plays a key role in indirect flight muscle (IFM) function and has limited expression in the IFM. In this study, we demonstrated that flightin is conserved across the Pancrustacea species, including winged insects, non-winged insects, non-insect hexapods and several crustaceans. The brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), a long-distance migration insect with wing dimorphism, is the most destructive rice pest in Asia. We showed that flightin was one of the most differentially expressed genes in macropterous and brachypterous BPH adults. In female BPHs, flightin was expressed in the IFM of macropterous adults, no expression was detected in brachypterous ones; while in male BPHs, flightin was not only expressed in the IFM of macropterous adults, but also in the dorsal longitudinal muscle (DLM) in the basal two abdominal segments of both macropterous and brachypterous ones. RNAi and transmission electron microscopy results showed that flightin played key roles in maintaining IFM and male DLM structure, which drive wing movements in macropterous adults and the vibration of the male-specific tymbal, respectively. Using Daphnia magna as an example of a crustacean species, we observed that flightin was expressed in juvenile instars and adults, and was localized in the antenna muscles. These results illustrate the functional variations of flightin in insects and other arthropod species and provide clues as to how insects with flight apparatuses evolved from ancient pancrustaceans.     

褐飞虱长翅型和短翅型雌雄成虫体内磁性物质定位和定量检测

【目的】地磁定向是昆虫远距离迁飞定向的重要机制之一。本研究以迁飞性害虫褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens长翅型和短翅型雌雄成虫为研究对象,系统开展虫体内磁性物质定量研究。【方法】本研究利用MPMS-7型超导量子磁强计检测褐飞虱长翅型和短翅型雌雄成虫体内的磁性物质,并将经普鲁士蓝染色后的虫体超薄石蜡切片于JEM-2100型透射电子显微镜下观察磁性物质的分布状况,最后利用原子发射光谱法对虫体内的磁性物质进行定量分析与比较。【结果】超导量子磁强计检测发现,仅在褐飞虱长翅型和短翅型雌雄成虫腹部的磁滞曲线有明显闭合现象,证明该部位存在磁性物质;经透射电镜观察发现,普鲁士蓝沉淀主要呈点簇状存在于虫体腹部,证明该部位存在铁磁性物质;通过等离子发射光谱检测发现,同一性别长翅型成虫体内铁离子含量显著高于短翅型成虫,且相同翅型雄成虫体内铁离子含量显著高于雌成虫。【结论】褐飞虱长翅型和短翅型雌雄成虫腹部普遍存在铁磁性物质,且不同翅型和性别间磁性物质含量差异显著。     

稻飞虱翅型纯系后代个体的翅型分化对光周期变化不敏感

【目的】为了明确光周期和遗传因子在稻飞虱翅型分化中的作用, 研究了3种稻飞虱（褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens、白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera和灰飞虱Laodelphax striatellus）翅型纯系或近纯系在不同光照时数下的翅型分化比率。【方法】以经过5~45代连续翅型筛选后的褐飞虱、白背飞虱和灰飞虱的长翅型和短翅型纯系或近纯系为材料, 在室内分别测定了其在长光照（16和20 h）、短光照(4~12 h)和正常光照(14 h) 3类光周期条件下饲养后, 雌、雄成虫中长翅和短翅个体出现的比率及存活率。【结果】白背飞虱和灰飞虱的长翅型纯系M♂×M♀或短翅型纯系B♂×B♀在不同光周期下的翅型比率均无显著差异（P>0.05）。褐飞虱短翅型近纯系B♂×B♀的雌虫短翅率和成虫总短翅率在不同光周期下也无显著差异（P>0.05）, 但雄虫短翅率在正常光照14 h和短光照4 h下显著高于长光照20 h下的（P<0.05）。当褐飞虱短翅型达到纯系后, 其后代翅型在6~16 h光照条件下无显著差异。褐飞虱长翅型近纯系M♂×M♀的后代虽有短翅个体出现, 但是雌虫和雄虫的各自短翅率在不同光周期下无显著差异（P>0.05), 仅总体短翅率在12 h光照条件下的显著高于16 h下的（P<0.05）。褐飞虱长、短翅型杂交筛选品系M♂×B♀的雌虫短翅率随光照时数的延长而升高; 灰飞虱杂交筛选品系M♂×B♀的短翅雄虫随光照时数的缩短而增多（P<0.05）, 但当筛选代次达到45代时, 这种趋势不再显著。3种稻飞虱长翅型和短翅型纯系或近纯系若虫的存活率会稍低于长、短翅型杂交后代的存活率, 但长、短翅型品系的存活率在6~16 h光照条件下差异不显著(P>0.05)。【结论】稻飞虱翅型分化对光周期的反应受飞虱本身遗传背景的影响, 翅型纯系后代个体的翅型分化对光周期变化不敏感。     

A combined inverse method and multivariate approach for exploring population trends of Florida manatees

Given the expense and time required to monitor marine mammal populations effectively, approaches that fully exploit the resulting data certainly are warranted. We employed a two‐step modeling approach to estimate key demographic parameters, including immigration, from aerial surveys of manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in the Northwest management unit of Florida. Abundances of adults and calves were predicted by multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) models, after accounting for heterogeneous detection rates caused by variable environmental conditions. The resulting predictions were incorporated into a stage‐structured, deterministic model that used an inverse method to estimate parameters with and without immigration. The model without immigration estimated mean survival probabilities of 0.966, 0.923, and 0.794 for adults, subadults and calves, respectively, with a per capita reproductive rate of 0.135. These parameter estimates yielded an overall mean population growth rate of approximately 1.037, which is comparable to rates from mark‐recapture studies. When we added an immigration term that accounted for the greater slope in adult counts since 1999, as identified by the MARS model, the estimated per capita reproductive rate was 0.122, with survival probabilities for adults, subadults and calves of 0.926, 0.920, and 0.833, respectively. These rates were coupled with an estimated mean winter immigration rate corresponding to roughly 5.2% of the adult and subadult population. In this latter scenario, the number of manatees in the core population of the Northwest management unit was predicted to remain constant, with a population growth rate near one, and additional manatees counted during aerial surveys were deemed to be immigrants. While further studies could certainly expound on the potential effects of migrants on population indices, we present this first published immigration estimate for wintering manatees in northwest Florida.     

Agamermis unka (Mermithidae) Parasitism of Nilaparvata lugens in Rice Fields in Korea

The mermithid Agamermis unka, a parasite of the brown planthopper (BPH), was found in many rice paddies in Gyeongnam Province, Korea. Nematode parasitism of adult BPH varied from year to year, reaching as high as 50% in paddies not treated with an insecticide. Parasitism was lower in insecticide-treated paddies. Generally, mermithid parasitism was higher in BPH adults collected from the lower part (19%) compared with adults collected from the upper part (8%) of the rice plant and in brachypterous (57%) compared with macropterous forms (8%). No difference in parasitism between first (54%) and second (57%) generation was observed.     

褐飞虱高温条件下应激反应及体内保护酶系活性的研究

利用34℃、36℃、38℃3个温度处理褐飞虱的若虫和不同型成虫,研究其在热休克过程中体内保护酶系活性及脂质过氧化物含量的变化。结果表明,热休克对4龄若虫过氧化氢酶（CAT）活性影响大于3龄、5龄,而其成虫期CAT活性则随日龄增加而增加,36℃为CAT清除H2O2最适温度。高龄若虫全内谷胱甘肽过氧化物本(GSH-px）活性高于低龄若虫,老熟成虫体内GSH－px清除H2O2能力强于初羽化成虫,超氧化物歧化酶（SOD）活性与处理温度呈正相关,而同一处理温度下SOD活性随成虫龄期和成虫日龄增加而降低,长型成虫体内CAT、GSH－px、SOD活性均高于短翅型,而雌、雄成虫间CAT、GSH－px、SOD活性无明显差异（α＞0.05）。褐飞虱体内脂质过氧化物（LPO）含量随处理温度升高而上升,同一处理温度下随若虫龄期和成虫日龄的增加而增加,短型成虫体内LPO含量高于长翅型。     

Rice planting systems, global warming and outbreaks of Nilaparvata lugens (Stål)

Brown Planthopper (BPH, Nilaparvata lugens (St?l)) is one of the most serious pests of rice in both temperate and tropical regions of East and South Asia and has become especially problematic over the past few years. In order to analyze the effect of the change of rice cropping system on the population dynamics of BPH, field surveys of the occurrence and distribution of BPH were performed and other relevant data, including light trap data and ovary dissection data were collected in nearly 40 Chinese counties encompassing six provinces (or municipalities), including Hainan, Guangxi, Anhui, Shanghai, Fujian and Guangdong from April to October in 2007.The mixed planting areas of single- and double-cropping rice in China include Hubei, South and Central Anhui, North Hunan, and North Jiangxi. In these areas, double-cropping rice has now been greatly reduced and single-cropping rice has been rapidly increasing since 1997. The surveys revealed that when the immigration peak of BPH occurred in June and July, the single-cropping rice was at the tillering to booting stage and fit for BPH, but early rice had already matured and most of late rice had not yet been transplanted. BPH immigrants from southern rice areas prefer to inhabit and breed in single-cropping rice paddies. Moreover, farming activities between early rice and late rice interrupted the continuous growth of BPH populations in double-cropping rice paddies. As a result, in comparison with data collected 30 years ago, the spatiotemporal dynamics and migration patterns of BPH have dramatically changed in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In the mixed planting areas, due to their high suitability, the BPH population in single-cropping rice grew so quickly that it caused serious local damage and there was mass emigration of macropterous progeny to the Yangtze River Delta in late August and early September.Global warming may also affect BPH populations, where results suggest steadily warmer autumns have occurred from the 1990s on, with such conditions gradually the norm. The combination of 'cooler summer' and 'warmer autumn' are conditions known to promote outbreaks of BPH in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Immigrant BPH arrivals in late August and September now cause serious damage to late-maturing mid-season rice and late rice in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River.     

Biological Studies on Agamermis unka (Nematoda: Mermithidae), a Parasite of the Brown Planthopper Nilaparvata lugens

The mermithid parasite, Agamermis unka, is the most important natural enemy of the brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens, in Korean rice fields. Very little is known about many aspects of the mermithid's life cycle and behavior, and a study was undertaken to close the data gap. The sex ratio of A. unka isolated from field-collected BPH showed a strong female bias. Even when several A. unka occurred within a BPH, the majority were females. Similarly, the sex ratio of field-collected A. unka adults that were in the soil was strongly biased towards females and, in many instances, the females were found in the absence of males. Females collected from the field from January to May and maintained in water at 25 C had a mean pre-oviposition period of 17-28 days and a mean oviposition period of 17-37 days, and averaged 543-1851 eggs/female. The eggs averaged 20, 17 and 36 days to hatch at 30, 25 and 20 C respectively, but none hatched at 15 C. Most of the eggs (96%) hatched at 25 and 20 C, but only 64% hatched at 30 C. Agamermis pre-parasites could be found on rice stems in the field and laboratory. In the field, BPH-susceptible and BPH-resistant rice cultivars showed no significant difference in the numbers of pre-parasites on the stem. In the laboratory, the number of pre-parasites recovered/rice stem was significantly higher in two out of three trials when BPH nymphs and adults were present. When BPH nymphs were exposed to the pre-parasites in the laboratory, 39% of the brachypterous females and 4.5% of the brachypterous males were parasitized, whereas 0.3% of the macropterous females and 0% of the macropterous males were parasitized. The parasitism data obtained under field conditions showed similar trends. The reason(s) for these differences in parasitism between the BPH sex and wing types that have been observed both in the laboratory and field is unknown. Because brachypterous males and macropterous females and males occur in lesser numbers than the brachypterous females, this may, in part, account for the differences in parasitism observed. However, BPH behavior cannot be discounted as a factor in the differential parasitism.     

Effects of elevated CO2 and transgenic Bt rice on yeast‐like endosymbiote and its host brown planthopper

The effects of elevated CO₂ (750 vs. 375μl/l) on population abundances and metabolism enzyme of AChE and protective enzymes of SOD, POD and CAT in brown planthoppers (BPH) Nilaparvata lugens, and on size and abundances of yeast‐like endosymbiotes (YLES) were studied as BPH fed Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) rice expressing pure Cry1Ab after successively two generations in open‐top chambers. The results indicated that: (1) Brachypterous and macropterous subpopulations and total population increased with elevated CO₂. Significant increases were found as BPH fed non‐transgenic rice while only significant increase as macropterous‐BPH fed Bt rice. (2) The responses of brachypterous and macropterous‐BPH to Bt rice were different. Brachypterous‐subpopulation significantly decreased (13.6%) while macropterous ones significantly increased (43.8%) as fed Bt rice relative to non‐transgenic rice at elevated CO₂. (3) Elevated CO₂ only significantly inhibited AChE activity as brachypterous‐BPH fed non‐transgenic rice. Significant increases in POD and SOD, and significant decrease in CAT were found as brachypterous‐BPH fed Bt rice, while significant increases in CAT and significant decrease in POD were also observed as fed non‐transgenic rice in elevated CO₂ relative to ambient CO₂. (4) Bt rice significantly inhibited POD and SOD activity at ambient CO₂, while only significantly enhanced SOD activity at elevated CO₂. (5) Elevated CO₂ significantly decreased YLES per mg/head of brachypterous‐BPH females while only significantly decreased YLES per mg/head as brachypterous‐BPH males fed Bt rice. And there were significant differences in YLES width or length between females and males. Elevated CO₂ can markedly affect the symbiosis relationship between YLES and BPH through the bottom‐up forcing on BPH physiological metabolism. And the damage inflicted by BPH on rice, irrespective of the presence of insecticidal genes, is predicted to be higher at elevated CO₂. Furthermore, transgenic Bt rice can also exacerbate emigrating‐macropterous‐BPH occurring especially at elevated CO₂.     

Phenology simulation model of Scotinophara lurida (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

A phenology simulation model was developed for Scotinophara lurida (Burmeister). The components for the model were a degree-day immigration flight model of overwintered adults, temperature-dependent developmental models of each stage, survival rates of each stage, and an adult oviposition model. A degree-day model for immigration flight of overwintered adults was developed with blacklight trap catch data by a Weibull function. Laboratory experiments using seven constant temperature regimens were conducted to determine the effect of temperature on the development of immature stages. Developmental rates of each immature stage fit well to a linear model. Distribution of developmental time for each immature stage was successfully modeled against physiological age by a Weibull function. To determine the temperature effect on longevity, fecundity, and survival of female adults, laboratory and greenhouse experiments were conducted. The adult developmental rate (1/median longevity) was described by a linear model. The oviposition model was developed incorporating the three components of average total fecundity, cumulative oviposition rate function, and survival rate function. The simulation model predicted the time of peak occurrences of life stages of S. lurida well.     

Development of an ELISA for evaluating the reproductive status of female brown planthopper,Nilaparvata lugens,by measuring vitellogenin and vitellin levels

To evaluate the reproductive status of the female brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), an indirect sandwich enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for monitoring vitellogenin (Vg) and vitellin (Vt) was developed by using monoclonal antibodies and polyclonal antiserum made specifically against BPH Vt. The ovarian development of BPH was divided into five stages according to ovariole development and morphological characteristics. Stages I–III, IV, and V represented the pre‐oviposition, peak oviposition, and post‐oviposition stages, respectively. Levels of Vt in the ovary and Vg/Vt in the whole female body during the five ovary stages appeared to relate well with the corresponding ovarian stages, suggesting that ovarian development can be evaluated by measuring ovarian Vt or whole body Vg/Vt in BPH. With this ELISA protocol, the reproductive status of macropterous BPH captured in rice fields during immigration, dwelling, and emigration was determined based on the levels of Vg/Vt in individual females. The females were mainly in stages I and II, as was confirmed by ovarian dissection. Therefore, this study presented an alternative method for evaluating the reproductive status of BPH in rice fields, which is more precise, convenient, and efficient than conventional techniques, such as dissection and classification of ovaries.     

Coral reef fish populations can persist without immigration

Determining the conditions under which populations may persist requires accurate estimates of demographic parameters, including immigration, local reproductive success, and mortality rates. In marine populations, empirical estimates of these parameters are rare, due at least in part to the pelagic dispersal stage common to most marine organisms. Here, we evaluate population persistence and turnover for a population of orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula, at Kimbe Island in Papua New Guinea. All fish in the population were sampled and genotyped on five occasions at 2-year intervals spanning eight years. The genetic data enabled estimates of reproductive success retained in the same population (reproductive success to self-recruitment), reproductive success exported to other subpopulations (reproductive success to local connectivity), and immigration and mortality rates of sub-adults and adults. Approximately 50% of the recruits were assigned to parents from the Kimbe Island population and this was stable through the sampling period. Stability in the proportion of local and immigrant settlers is likely due to: low annual mortality rates and stable egg production rates, and the short larval stages and sensory capacities of reef fish larvae. Biannual mortality rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.55 and varied significantly spatially. We used these data to parametrize a model that estimated the probability of the Kimbe Island population persisting in the absence of immigration. The Kimbe Island population was found to persist without significant immigration. Model results suggest the island population persists because the largest of the subpopulations are maintained due to having low mortality and high self-recruitment rates. Our results enable managers to appropriately target and scale actions to maximize persistence likelihood as disturbance frequencies increase.     

Demography of the twospotted spider mite,Tetranychus urticae Koch

Summary A simple life table model was constructed for Tetranychus urticae in which daily survivorship of eggs and motil stages, fecundity, and development time was altered to assess the impact of each parameter on the intrinsic rate of increase. r. Interpretation of the trade-offs focused on management considerations.A second aspect of the study concerned age and stage structure in mite populations including the time path of convergence to a stable age distribution and the effect of changes in birth and death rates on the age profile. The stable stage distributions of 7 tetranychid mite species were computed using 25 separate life tables. In spite of the wide range of r-values induced by different experimental conditions, all of the stage distributions were quite similar averaging roughly 66% eggs, 26% immatures, and 8% adults. Several population studies were cited which reported stage distributions of growing mite populations. The empirical evidence suggested that natural mite populations are often quite near this stable distribution.A practical problem involving the extent to which hormoligosis (insecticide stimulation) affects mite population growth rate was addressed using the life table model and laboratory data from controlled studies. The findings suggested that mite populations treated with insecticide may attain a 1.4- to a 4.2-fold difference in population size relative to an untreated population after 2 generations and over a 1,300-fold potential difference after 10 generations.     

中南半岛前期异常气候条件对中国南方稻区褐飞虱灾变性迁入的影响及其预测模型

近30多年来,气候变化对中国褐飞虱的灾变性迁入带来了明显的影响,为了进一步了解虫源地的异常气候变化对我国褐飞虱迁入量的影响,利用1980—2016年中国各植保站提供的褐飞虱虫情资料及同期美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)提供的全球气象再分析资料,分析了中国褐飞虱境外主要虫源地中南半岛前期异常气候条件对中国南方稻区褐飞虱发生程度的影响,并对褐飞虱发生等级与影响其迁飞的气象因子进行了相关性分析,筛选出关键预报因子,分别应用支持向量机(SVM)、BP神经网络和多元回归分析3种方法对代表站点褐飞虱年发生等级进行了预测,并比较了3种预测模型的优劣。结果表明:(1)中南半岛气候异常区主要分布在北部,异常气候的发生次数在中南半岛呈现出北高南低的特征,并从北向南呈环状递减。(2)中南半岛前期温度偏高(暖冬、暖春)、相对湿度偏大(湿冬、湿春),易引起褐飞虱在中国南方稻区的偏重以上发生;若中南半岛前期气候偏冷(冷冬、冷春)、偏干(干冬、干春),则常导致褐飞虱在中国南方稻区的偏轻以下发生。(3)通过比较3种模型的历史回代率和预测准确率,发现3种模型对褐飞虱的发生程度均有一定的预测能力,其中SVM模型的预测效果最好,BP神经网络次之,多元线性回归模型最差,表明SVM更加适用于生产实际中的褐飞虱发生程度预测。