Selection for increased allocation to offspring number under environmental unpredictability

According to life-history theory, the evolution of offspring size is constrained by the trade-off between allocation of resources to individual offspring and the number of offspring produced. Existing models explore the ecological consequences of offspring size, whereas number is invariably treated simply as an outcome of the trade-off with size. Here I ask whether there is a direct evolutionary advantage of increased allocation to offspring number under environmental unpredictability. Variable environments are expected to select for diversification in the timing of egg hatch and seed germination, yet the dependence of the expression of diversification strategies, and thus parental fitness, on offspring number has not previously been recognized. I begin by showing that well-established sampling theory predicts that a target bethedging diversification strategy is more reliably achieved as offspring number increases. I then use a simulation model to demonstrate that higher offspring number leads to greater geometric mean fitness under environmental uncertainty. Natural selection is thus expected to act directly to increase offspring number under assumptions of environmental unpredictability in season quality.     

Natural Selection for within-Generation Variance in Offspring Number

In this paper it is shown that natural selection can act on the within-generation variance in offspring number. The fitness of a genotype will increase as its variance in offspring number decreases. The intensity of selection on the variance component is inversely proportional to population size, although the fixation probability of a gene which differs from its allele only in the variance in its offspring number is independent of population size. The concept of effective population size is shown to be of limited use when there is genetic variation in the variance in offspring number.     

Survival costs of reproduction predict age-dependent variation in maternal investment

Life-history theory predicts that older females will increase reproductive effort through increased fecundity. Unless offspring survival is density dependent or female size constrains offspring size, theory does not predict variation in offspring size. However, empirical data suggest that females of differing age or condition produce offspring of different sizes. We used a dynamic state-variable model to determine when variable offspring sizes can be explained by an interaction between female age, female state and survival costs of reproduction. We found that when costs depend on fecundity, young females with surplus state increase offspring size and reduce number to minimize fitness penalties. When costs depend on total reproductive effort, only older females increase offspring size. Young females produce small offspring, because decreasing offspring size is less expensive than number, as fitness from offspring investment is nonlinear. Finally, allocation patterns are relatively stable when older females are better at acquiring food and are therefore in better condition. Our approach revealed an interaction between female state, age and survival costs, providing a novel explanation for observed variation in reproductive traits.     

Parent–offspring conflict and selection on egg size in turtles

The trade‐off between offspring size and number can present a conflict between parents and their offspring. Because egg size is constrained by clutch size, the optimal egg size for offspring fitness may not always be equivalent to that which maximizes parental fitness. We evaluated selection on egg size in three turtle species (Apalone mutica, Chelydra serpentina and Chrysemys picta) to determine if optimal egg sizes differ between offspring and their mothers. Although hatching success was generally greater for larger eggs, the strength and form of selection varied. In most cases, the egg size that maximized offspring fitness was greater than that which maximized maternal fitness. Consistent with optimality theory, mean egg sizes in the populations were more similar to the egg sizes that maximized maternal fitness, rather than offspring fitness. These results provide evidence that selection has maximized maternal fitness to achieve an optimal balance between egg size and number.     

Evidence for the morphological constraint hypothesis and optimal offspring size theory in the Mexican mud turtle (Kinosternon integrum)

Optimal offspring size theory states that natural selection should balance reproductive output by optimizing between offspring size and offspring number. If a species has evolved an optimal offspring size, the fitness of larger females should be increased by simply producing more offspring of an optimum size. In contrast, when offspring size is not optimized, the morphological constraint hypothesis may apply, and in this case, maternal fitness is increased by producing the greatest number of the largest offspring that mothers are physically capable of producing. We used a log-log allometric regression approach on clutch size, egg size, and body size data to test the application of optimal offspring size theory and the morphological constraint hypothesis in the Mexican mud turtle (Kinosternon integrum) in southern Mexico. Our results indicate that this turtle seems to follow the morphological constraint hypothesis when all data are analyzed together, but when data are divided between small (< 140 mm plastron length) and large females (> 140 mm plastron length), optimal offspring (egg) size theory was supported only in large females, while the morphological constraint hypothesis was supported in small females. Our results thus indicate that K. integrum females may increase their fitness in two different, size-dependent ways as they grow from size at sexual maturity to maximum body size.     

Selection and constraints on offspring size‐number trade‐offs in sand lizards (Lacerta agilis)

The trade‐off between offspring size and number is a central component of life‐history theory, postulating that larger investment into offspring size inevitably decreases offspring number. This trade‐off is generally discussed in terms of genetic, physiological or morphological constraints; however, as among‐individual differences can mask individual trade‐offs, the underlying mechanisms may be difficult to reveal. In this study, we use multivariate analyses to investigate whether there is a trade‐off between offspring size and number in a population of sand lizards by separating among‐ and within‐individual patterns using a 15‐year data set collected in the wild. We also explore the ecological and evolutionary causes and consequences of this trade‐off by investigating how a female's resource (condition)‐ vs. age‐related size (snout‐vent length) influences her investment into offspring size vs. number (OSN), whether these traits are heritable and under selection and whether the OSN trade‐off has a genetic component. We found a negative correlation between offspring size and number within individual females and physical constraints (size of body cavity) appear to limit the number of eggs that a female can produce. This suggests that the OSN trade‐off occurs due to resource constraints as a female continues to grow throughout life and, thus, produces larger clutches. In contrast to the assumptions of classic OSN theory, we did not detect selection on offspring size; however, there was directional selection for larger clutch sizes. The repeatabilities of both offspring size and number were low and we did not detect any additive genetic variance in either trait. This could be due to strong selection (past or current) on these life‐history traits, or to insufficient statistical power to detect significant additive genetic effects. Overall, the findings of this study are an important illustration of how analyses of within‐individual patterns can reveal trade‐offs and their underlying causes, with potential evolutionary and ecological consequences that are otherwise hidden by among‐individual variation.     

Fitness cost of incubation in great tits (Parus major) is related to clutch size

Life-history theory predicts that parents produce the number of offspring that maximizes their fitness. In birds, natural selection on parental decisions regarding clutch size may act during egg laying, incubation or nestling phase. To study the fitness consequences of clutch size during the incubation phase, we manipulated the clutch sizes during this phase only in three breeding seasons and measured the fitness consequences on the short and the long term. Clutch enlargement did not affect the offspring fitness of the manipulated first clutches, but fledging probability of the subsequent clutch in the same season was reduced. Parents incubating enlarged first clutches provided adequate care for the offspring of their first clutches during the nestling phase, but paid the price when caring for the offspring of their second clutch. Parents that incubated enlarged first clutches had lower local survival in the 2 years when the population had a relatively high production of second clutches, but not in the third year when there was a very low production of second clutches. During these 2 years, the costs of incubation were strong enough to change positive selection, as established by brood size manipulations in this study population, into stabilizing selection through the negative effect of incubation on parental fitness.     

Likelihood methods for detecting temporal shifts in diversification rates

Maximum likelihood is a potentially powerful approach for investigating the tempo of diversification using molecular phylogenetic data. Likelihood methods distinguish between rate-constant and rate-variable models of diversification by fitting birth-death models to phylogenetic data. Because model selection in this context is a test of the null hypothesis that diversification rates have been constant over time, strategies for selecting best-fit models must minimize Type I error rates while retaining power to detect rate variation when it is present. Here I examine model selection, parameter estimation, and power to reject the null hypothesis using likelihood models based on the birth-death process. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) has often been used to select among diversification models; however, I find that selecting models based on the lowest AIC score leads to a dramatic inflation of the Type I error rate. When appropriately corrected to reduce Type I error rates, the birth-death likelihood approach performs as well or better than the widely used gamma statistic, at least when diversification rates have shifted abruptly over time. Analyses of datasets simulated under a range of rate-variable diversification scenarios indicate that the birth-death likelihood method has much greater power to detect variation in diversification rates when extinction is present. Furthermore, this method appears to be the only approach available that can distinguish between a temporal increase in diversification rates and a rate-constant model with nonzero extinction. I illustrate use of the method by analyzing a published phylogeny for Australian agamid lizards.     

Optimal offspring sizes in small litters

Summary Numerous evolutionary models explore the trade-off between offspring size and offspring number. However, such models often fail when the number of offspring is small because optimal litter size (or litter size at optimal offspring size) may fall between the necessarily integer values for real litters. This paper extends a classic model for optimal investment per offspring to the case of small litters and predicts that range in offspring size and the largest (smallest) offspring size should decline (increase) with increased litter size. Application of the model to egg size data from a poeciliid fish,Gambusia hubbsi, reveals a surprisingly close approximation to the largest offspring size and variation in offspring size at small litter sizes.     

No direct selection to increase offspring number of bet-hedging strategies in large populations: Simons' model revisited

In mixed or 'bet-hedging' strategies, offspring phenotypes are taken randomly from a distribution determined by the genotype and shaped by evolution. Offspring of a single parent represent a finite sample from this distribution, and therefore are subject to variability because of sampling. Contrary to a recent article by A.M. Simons (2007; J. Evol. Biol.20: 813-817), I show that selection does not favour the production of many offspring just to reduce sampling variability when such mixed strategies are used in large populations.     

The ESS under spatial variation with applications to sex allocation

I derive a new approximation which uses the backward Kolmogorov equation to describe evolution when individuals have variable numbers of offspring. This approximation is based on an explicit fixed population size assumption and therefore differs from previous models. I show that for individuals to accept an increase in the variance of offspring number, they must be compensated by an increase in mean offspring number. Based on this model and any given set of feasible alleles, an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) can be found. Four types of ESS are possible and can be discriminated by graphical methods. These ESS values depend on population size, but population size can be reinterpreted as deme size in a structured population. I adapt this theory to the problem of sex allocation under variable returns to male and female function and derive the ESS sex allocation strategy. I show that allocation to the more variable sexual function should be reduced, but that this effect decreases as population size increases and as variability decreases. These results are compared with results from exact matrix models and computer simulations, all of which show strong congruence.     

Mating preferences, sexual selection and patterns of cladogenesis in ray-finned fishes

Evolutionary theory predicts that sexual selection may increase taxonomic diversity when emergent mating preferences result in reproductive isolation and therefore speciation. This theory has been invoked to explain patterns of diversity in ray-finned fishes (most notably in the cichlids), but the theory has not been tested comparatively in fish. Additionally, several other unrelated factors have been identified as promoters of cladogenesis, so it is unclear how important sexual selection might be in diversification. Using sister-clade analysis, I tested the relationship between the presence of sexually selected traits and taxonomic diversification in actinopterygiian fishes, a large clade that shows substantial diversity in mating preferences and related sexually selected traits. In all identified sister-families that differed with regard to the proportion of species manifesting sexually selected traits, sexual selection was correlated with increased diversification, and this association was significant across all sister clades (P=0.02). This suggests that sexual selection, when present, is a substantial driver of diversification in the ray-finned fishes, and lends further empirical support to the theoretical link between mating preferences and accelerated cladogenesis.     

INTERSPECIFIC COMPETITION ALTERS NONLINEAR SELECTION ON OFFSPRING SIZE IN THE FIELD

Offspring size is one of the most important life‐history traits with consequences for both the ecology and evolution of most organisms. Surprisingly, formal estimates of selection on offspring size are rare, and the degree to which selection (particularly nonlinear selection) varies among environments remains poorly explored. We estimate linear and nonlinear selection on offspring size, module size, and senescence rate for a sessile marine invertebrate in the field under three different intensities of interspecific competition. The intensity of competition strongly modified the strength and form of selection acting on offspring size. We found evidence for differences in nonlinear selection across the three environments. Our results suggest that the fitness returns of a given offspring size depend simultaneously on their environmental context, and on the context of other offspring traits. Offspring size effects can be more pervasive with regards to their influence on the fitness returns of other traits than previously recognized, and we suggest that the evolution of offspring size cannot be understood in isolation from other traits. Overall, variability in the form and strength of selection on offspring size in nature may reduce the efficacy of selection on offspring size and maintain variation in this trait.     

Maternal investment increases with altitude in a frog on the Tibetan Plateau

Reproducing females can allocate energy between the production of eggs or offspring of different size or number, both of which can strongly influence fitness. The physical capacity to store developing offspring imposes constraints on maximum clutch volume, but individual females and populations can trade off whether more or fewer eggs or offspring are produced, and their relative sizes. Harsh environments are likely to select for larger egg or offspring size, and many vertebrate populations compensate for this reproductive investment through an increase in female body size. We report a different trade‐off in a frog endemic to the Tibetan Plateau, Rana kukunoris. Females living at higher altitudes (n = 11 populations, 2000–3500 m) produce larger eggs, but without a concomitant increase in female body size or clutch size. The reduced diel and seasonal activity at high altitudes may impose constraints on the maximum body size of adult frogs, by limiting the opportunity for energy accumulation. Simultaneously, producing larger eggs likely helps to increase the rate of embryonic development, causing tadpoles to hatch earlier. The gelatinous matrix surrounding eggs, more of which is produced by large females, may help buffer developing embryos from temperature fluctuations or offer protection from ultraviolet radiation. High‐altitude frogs on the Tibetan Plateau employ a reproductive strategy that favours large egg size independent of body size, which is unusual in amphibians. The harsh and unpredictable environmental conditions at high altitudes can thus impose strong and opposing selection pressures on adult and embryonic life stages, both of which can simultaneously influence fitness.     

Sexually antagonistic selection on primate size

Abstract Male intrasexual selection in haplorhine primates has previously been shown to increase male size and to a lesser degree also female size. I address the following questions: (1) why does female size increase when the selection is on males, and (2) why does female size not increase to the same extent as that of males. The potential for correlational selection on females through increased resource competition was analysed with independent contrasts analyses. No such effect was found, nor did matched pairs comparisons reveal females to increase in size because of selection to bear larger male offspring. Instead further matched pairs analyses revealed higher female postpartum investment, as indicated by a longer lactation period, in more sexually selected species, also after correcting for body weight. Concerning the second question, independent contrast analyses showed that large size has had negative effects on female reproductive rate across the primate order. Matched‐pairs analyses on haplorhines revealed that females of species in more polygynous clades have lower reproductive rates than females of species in less polygynous clades. This is also true after the effects of body weight are removed. These results, both when correcting for body weight and when not, suggest that sexual selection has shifted female size from one favouring female lifetime fecundity to one favouring male success in competition. This depicts antagonistic selection pressures on female size and a trade‐off for females between the ecologically optimal size of their foremothers and the larger size that made their forefathers successful.     

An epidemiological model of host–parasite coevolution and sex

The Red Queen hypothesis posits a promising way to explain the widespread existence of sexual reproduction despite the cost of producing males. The essence of the hypothesis is that coevolutionary interactions between hosts and parasites select for the genetic diversification of offspring via cross‐fertilization. Here, I relax a common assumption of many Red Queen models that each host is exposed to one parasite. Instead, I assume that the number of propagules encountered by each host depends on the number of infected hosts in the previous generation, which leads to additional complexities. The results suggest that epidemiological feedbacks, combined with frequency‐dependent selection, could lead to the long‐term persistence of sex under biologically reasonable conditions.     

Females allocate differentially to offspring size and number in response to male effects on female and offspring fitness

Female investment in offspring size and number has been observed to vary with the phenotype of their mate across diverse taxa. Recent theory motivated by these intriguing empirical patterns predicted both positive (differential allocation) and negative (reproductive compensation) effects of mating with a preferred male on female investment. These predictions, however, focused on total reproductive effort and did not distinguish between a response in offspring size and clutch size. Here, we model how specific paternal effects on fitness affect maternal allocation to offspring size and number. The specific mechanism by which males affect the fitness of females or their offspring determines whether and how females allocated differentially. Offspring size is predicted to increase when males benefit offspring survival, but decrease when males increase offspring growth rate. Clutch size is predicted to increase when males contribute to female resources (e.g. with a nuptial gift) and when males increase offspring growth rate. The predicted direction and magnitude of female responses vary with female age, but only when per-offspring paternal benefits decline with clutch size. We conclude that considering specific paternal effects on fitness in the context of maternal life-history trade-offs can help explain mixed empirical patterns of differential allocation and reproductive compensation.     

Can competitive asymmetries maintain offspring size variation? A manipulative field test

Offspring sizes vary within populations but the reasons are unclear. Game‐theoretic models predict that selection will maintain offspring‐size variation when large offspring are superior competitors (i.e., competition is asymmetric), but small offspring are superior colonizers. Empirical tests are equivocal, however, and typically rely on interspecific comparisons, whereas explicit intraspecific tests are rare. In a field study, we test whether offspring size affects competitive asymmetries using the sessile marine invertebrate, Bugula neritina. Surprisingly, we show that offspring size determines whether interactions are competitive or facilitative—large neighbors strongly facilitated small offspring, but also strongly competed with large offspring. These findings contradict the assumptions of classic theory—that is, large offspring were not superior competitors. Instead, smaller offspring actually benefit from interactions with large offspring—suggesting that asymmetric facilitation, rather than asymmetric competition, operates in our system. We argue that facilitation of small offspring may be more widespread than currently appreciated, and may maintain variation in offspring size via negative frequency‐dependent selection. Offspring size theory has classically viewed offspring interactions through the lens of competition alone, yet our results and those of others suggest that theory should accommodate positive interactions in explorations of offspring‐size variation.     

Why girls want to be boys

The mechanisms by which sex is genetically determined are bewilderingly diverse and appear to change rapidly during evolution.( 1 ) What makes the sex‐determining process so prone to perturbations? Two recent articles( 2 , 3 ) explore theoretically the role of genetic conflict in sex determination evolution. Both studies use the idea that selection on sex‐determining genes may act differently in parents and in offspring and they suggest that the resulting conflict can drive changes in sex‐determining mechanisms. BioEssays 23:477–480, 2001. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Access to multiple mates increases fecundity but does not affect per‐offspring maternal investment in a marine gastropod

Females of many organisms mate more than once and with more than one male, suggesting that polyandry confers some advantage to the female or her offspring. However, variation in maternal investment in response to mate choice and mate number can confound efforts to determine if there are benefits of polyandry. Access to multiple mates could increase maternal investment in offspring via a number of different mechanisms. Few studies have determined if investment is influenced by mate choice and number, and data are particularly lacking for marine invertebrates. This study was designed to determine if maternal investment and offspring size increase with access to increasing numbers of mates in the protandrous intertidal slipper snail Crepidula cf. marginalis. Virgin female slipper limpets were exposed to one, three, or five potential mates and their fecundity, egg size, and hatchling size were measured for multiple clutches. Treatment had a significant effect on fecundity, with fecundity increasing with the number of potential mates. Treatment did not have an effect on the size of eggs or hatchlings, on the variation in egg size or hatchling size within broods, or on the frequency of oviposition. Treatment did alter the variation in average offspring size among females, but not in the way predicted by theory. The main result, that access to multiple mates does not have an effect on per offspring maternal investment, makes C. cf. marginalis an ideal candidate to study the effects of polyandry on offspring fitness without having to take into account confounding effects of variation in maternal investment.