Genetic variation across species' geographical ranges: the central-marginal hypothesis and beyond

There is growing interest in quantifying genetic population structure across the geographical ranges of species to understand why species might exhibit stable range limits and to assess the conservation value of peripheral populations. However, many assertions regarding peripheral populations rest on the long-standing but poorly tested supposition that peripheral populations exhibit low genetic diversity and greater genetic differentiation as a consequence of smaller effective population size and greater geographical isolation relative to geographically central populations. We reviewed 134 studies representing 115 species that tested for declines in within-population genetic diversity and/or increases in among-population differentiation towards range margins using nuclear molecular genetic markers. On average, 64.2% of studies detected the expected decline in diversity, 70.2% of those that tested for it showed increased differentiation and there was a positive association between these trends. In most cases, however, the difference in genetic diversity between central and peripheral population was not large. Although these results were consistent across plants and animals, strong taxonomic and biogeographical biases in the available studies call for a cautious generalization of these results. Despite the large number of studies testing these simple predictions, very few attempted to test possible mechanisms causing reduced peripheral diversity or increased differentiation. Almost no study incorporated a phylogeographical framework to evaluate historical influences on contemporary genetic patterns. Finally, there has been little effort to test whether these geographical trends in putatively neutral variation at marker loci are reflected by quantitative genetic trait variation, which is likely to influence the adaptive potential of populations across the geographical range.     

The dynamics of biogeographic ranges in the deep sea

Anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing, mining, oil drilling, bioprospecting, warming, and acidification in the deep sea are increasing, yet generalities about deep-sea biogeography remain elusive. Owing to the lack of perceived environmental variability and geographical barriers, ranges of deep-sea species were traditionally assumed to be exceedingly large. In contrast, seamount and chemosynthetic habitats with reported high endemicity challenge the broad applicability of a single biogeographic paradigm for the deep sea. New research benefiting from higher resolution sampling, molecular methods and public databases can now more rigorously examine dispersal distances and species ranges on the vast ocean floor. Here, we explore the major outstanding questions in deep-sea biogeography. Based on current evidence, many taxa appear broadly distributed across the deep sea, a pattern replicated in both the abyssal plains and specialized environments such as hydrothermal vents. Cold waters may slow larval metabolism and development augmenting the great intrinsic ability for dispersal among many deep-sea species. Currents, environmental shifts, and topography can prove to be dispersal barriers but are often semipermeable. Evidence of historical events such as points of faunal origin and climatic fluctuations are also evident in contemporary biogeographic ranges. Continued synthetic analysis, database construction, theoretical advancement and field sampling will be required to further refine hypotheses regarding deep-sea biogeography.     

The anatomy of the interspecific abundance–range size relationship for the British avifauna: II. Temporal dynamics

In a companion paper, we started an examination of the anatomy of the interspecific relationship between local abundance and geographical range size in the British avifauna by analysing its spatial dynamics. Here, we use the same data to extend this study to a consideration of the temporal dynamics of the relationship. Most species of British breeding bird show a positive intraspecific abundance–range size relationship through time: i.e. in years when a species is locally more abundant it also occupies a higher proportion of census sites. However, the majority of such relationships are not statistically significant, and other relationships that are statistically significant are negative. Therefore, intraspecific abundance–range size relationships do not simply mirror the relationship across species. Where they do arise, positive relationships are more likely to be associated with positive intraspecific relationships between range size and maximum rather than minimum abundance. The interspecific abundance–range size relationship is remarkably consistent across years, and is always significantly positive. The relationships for woodland and farmland census sites show correlated variation, so that in years when the linear regression slope and coefficient of determination are high across species on farmland plots, they also tend to be high across species on woodland plots. Common species tend to be common on both farmland and woodland plots, and tend to be common in all years. Likewise, rare species tend to be rare in all habitats and years. This concordance means that the positive interspecific abundance–range size relationship can be viewed as occurring largely independently of intraspecific relationships. It follows from the above that developing an understanding of intraspecific abundance–range size relationships may be of only limited value in ascertaining the determinants of positive interspecific abundance–range size relationships. We conclude that for interspecific relationships, it will be important to know why some species are consistently common and others rare, whereas for intraspecific relationships it will be important to understand the dynamic links between local abundances across sites.     

Population and geographic range dynamics: implications for conservation planning

Continuing downward trends in the population sizes of many species, in the conservation status of threatened species, and in the quality, extent and connectedness of habitats are of increasing concern. Identifying the attributes of declining populations will help predict how biodiversity will be impacted and guide conservation actions. However, the drivers of biodiversity declines have changed over time and average trends in abundance or distributional change hide significant variation among species. While some populations are declining rapidly, the majority remain relatively stable and others are increasing. Here we dissect out some of the changing drivers of population and geographic range change, and identify biological and geographical correlates of winners and losers in two large datasets covering local population sizes of vertebrates since 1970 and the distributions of Galliform birds over the last two centuries. We find weak evidence for ecological and biological traits being predictors of local decline in range or abundance, but stronger evidence for the role of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change. An improved understanding of the dynamics of threat processes and how they may affect different species will help to guide better conservation planning in a continuously changing world.     

Ecological correlates of island incidence and geographical range among British butterflies

The incidence of butterflies on British islands and their geographical (latitudinal) ranges are regressed on ecological and life history variables. The objective has been to investigate the contribution of individual variables and to incorporate information on phylogenetic links. The findings confirm the close relationship of species' incidence on islands with their geographical ranges on mainland Britain and that of species' geographical ranges with ecological variables, particularly migration capacity, hostplant type (variety) and breeding-habitat range. The results for island incidence considering phylogenetic links are virtually identical to those disregarding them. For geographical range, the results are similar. The key variable in each case is dispersal, scored in either one of two different ways. However, hostplant type takes precedence over breeding-habitat range when phylogenetic links are considered. Species categorized for upper and lower quartiles for geographical range form isolated clusters in the first two axes of a principal components analysis on a set of seven ecological variables. This result suggests the combined influence of a number of ecological variables on range size. Species with wide geographical ranges tend to have high migration indices, a wide variety of hostplants and ubiquitous hostplants, long flight periods and are often multi-brooded; those with narrow geographical ranges tend to have low migration indices, sparse and limited hostplant resources, short flight periods and are often univoltine. A number of life history variables are found to correlate significantly with geographical range, but account for only small amounts of variation. The lack of any association between range size and population abundance may well reflect the difficulty of obtaining adequate measures for abundance. However, we caution against expecting a strong correlation between range size and abundance.     

Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time

Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status.     

Global climate change and accuracy of prediction of species' geographical ranges: establishment success of introduced ladybirds (Coccinellidae, Chilocorus spp.) worldwide

AimPredictions of how the geographical ranges of species change implicitly assume that range can be determined without invoking climate change. The aim here was to determine how accurate predictions of range change might be before entertaining global climatic change. LocationWorldwide. MethodsAll the documented global biological control translocations of ladybirds (Coccinellidae: Chilocorus spp.) were analysed with the ecoclimatic program, CLIMEX. This program determines species distributions in relation to climate, and can be used to express the favourableness of different localities for a species. CLIMEX is also a useful exploratory tool for determining the likelihood of establishment of species introduced from one area to another. ResultsPredictive models were developed based on the likelihood of establishment of fifteen Chilocorus spp. relative to their physiological characteristics and climatic tolerances. This likelihood was compared with actual establishment with a resultant range of 0% accuracy to 100% accuracy. Only four (26.7%) species climatic tolerances could the predicted with 100% certainty. The general lack of accurate prediction was because climate is not always the overriding feature determining whether a species will establish or not. Other determinants, such as localized response to microclimate, phenology, host type and availability, presence of natural enemies and hibernation sites play a varying role over and above climate in determining whether a species will establish at a new locality. Main conclusionsThis study shows that even in the absence of climate change, range cannot always be determined, which means that most predictions of range change with climate change are likely to be wrong.     

Variations on a theme: sources of heterogeneity in the form of the interspecific relationship between abundance and distribution

1. A positive interspecific relationship between abundance and distribution is widely considered to be one of the most general patterns in ecology. However, the relationship appears to vary considerably across assemblages, from significant positive to significant negative correlations and all shades in between. 2. This variation has led to the suggestion that the abundance-distribution relationship has multiple forms, with the corollary that different patterns may inform about, or have different, causes. However, this variation has never been formally quantified, nor has it been determined whether the observed variation is indicative of sampling error in estimating a single effect or of real heterogeneity in such relationships. Here, we use the meta-analytical approach to assess variation in abundance-distribution relationships, and to test different hypotheses for it. 3. Analysis of 279 relationships found a mean effect size of 0.655, which was both highly significantly different from zero and indicative of a strong positive association between abundance and distribution. However, effect sizes were highly heterogeneous, supporting the contention that this relationship does indeed have multiple forms. 4. Most notably, relationships vary significantly in strength across realms, with the strongest in the marine and intertidal, intermediate relationships for terrestrial and parasitic assemblages, and the weakest relationships in freshwater systems. Effect sizes in all of the aquatic realms are homogeneous, suggesting that realm is an important source of the heterogeneity observed across all studies. We posit that this may be because the different spatial structure of the environment in each realm affects the opportunity for the dispersal of individuals between sites. 5. Some of the remaining heterogeneity in effect sizes for terrestrial assemblages could be explained by partitioning assemblages by habitat, scale, biogeographical region and taxon, but considerable heterogeneity in effect sizes for terrestrial and parasitic assemblages remained unexplained.     

Linear analysis solves two puzzles in population dynamics: the route to extinction and extinction in coloured environments

In this paper, we give simple explanations to two unsolved puzzles that have emerged in recent theoretical studies in population dynamics. First, the tendency of some model populations to go extinct from high population densities, and second, the positive effect of autocorrelated environments on extinction risks for some model populations. Both phenomena are given general explanations by simple, linear, sto-chastic models. We emphasize the predictive and explanatory power of such models.     

Towards a general framework for predicting threat status of data-deficient species from phylogenetic,spatial and environmental information

In taxon-wide assessments of threat status many species remain not included owing to lack of data. Here, we present a novel spatial-phylogenetic statistical framework that uses a small set of readily available or derivable characteristics, including phylogenetically imputed body mass and remotely sensed human encroachment, to provide initial baseline predictions of threat status for data-deficient species. Applied to assessed mammal species worldwide, the approach effectively identifies threatened species and predicts the geographical variation in threat. For the 483 data-deficient species, the models predict highly elevated threat, with 69% ‘at-risk’ species in this set, compared with 22% among assessed species. This results in 331 additional potentially threatened mammals, with elevated conservation importance in rodents, bats and shrews, and countries like Colombia, Sulawesi and the Philippines. These findings demonstrate the future potential for combining phylogenies and remotely sensed data with species distributions to identify species and regions of conservation concern.     

The anatomy of the interspecific abundance–range size relationship for the British avifauna: I. Spatial patterns

Data from the British Trust for Ornithology Common Birds Census and two atlases of breeding birds were used to examine the form of the interspecific abundance–range size relationship for the British avifauna. The relationship is positive for both farmland and woodland habitats and over two different periods, with some evidence of curvilinearity, using either proportion of occupied sites or numbers of occupied 10 × 10 km squares as measures of range size, and mean density at occupied sites as a measure of abundance. A log-linear plot gives the highest correlation. The relationship is stronger if based on maximum local densities than if based on average densities, but there is no relationship using minimum local densities. Relationships based on abundances at individual sites are uniformly positive for all sites, although the relationships for many sites also show evidence of curvilinearity, especially when range size is measured as the proportion of occupied sites. Species show significant concordance in their rank abundances across sites. We discuss some implications of these results.     

Rarity in the tropics: biogeography and macroecology of the primates

Aim To describe rarity and elucidate its biology in a tropical mammalian order, the Primates. Location Africa, Central and South America, Asia, Madagascar. Methods A review of the literature, with some additional analyses using data from the literature. A variety of definitions of rarity are used in order to describe it and to investigate its biology by correlating the degree of rarity with a variety of biological traits indicative of resource use (e.g. size of annual home range), reproductive rate (e.g. birth interval)and specialization (e.g. number of habitat types used). Results Few primate taxa occur outside the tropics, and most taxa are rare (small geographical range size or latitudinal extent, low density or both). Latitudinal extent is narrower at lower latitudes in Africa and Asia, but the potential resultant packing of taxa appears not to explain the taxonomic diversity gradient. Whilst primate species do not show the common, positive density by range size relationship, primate genera show a significant shallow slope, and primate families/subfamilies a strongly positive slope. Rare taxa are specialized, but neither use more resources nor breed more slowly than common taxa. The correlation of rarity and specialization is via geographical range: taxa with small ranges, or small ranges for their density, are specialized, but not taxa at low density. Common taxa are generalized because they consist of more differently specialized subtaxa, not because each subtaxon is generalized. Main conclusions Most primate taxa are rare, in which case most are presumably likely to go extinct. Rare primates are specialized, but do not necessarily use more resources, nor breed more slowly. Specialization as an explanation for rarity appears to work via constriction of range size, not of density. Common primates might be common (large range size) not because subtaxa or individuals are generalized, but because they are composed of more subtaxa. A consequence could be that persistence of even common taxa will depend on conservation of several populations scattered across the taxon's geographical range.     

High proportion of smaller ranged hummingbird species coincides with ecological specialization across the Americas

Ecological communities that experience stable climate conditions have been speculated to preserve more specialized interspecific associations and have higher proportions of smaller ranged species (SRS). Thus, areas with disproportionally large numbers of SRS are expected to coincide geographically with a high degree of community-level ecological specialization, but this suggestion remains poorly supported with empirical evidence. Here, we analysed data for hummingbird resource specialization, range size, contemporary climate, and Late Quaternary climate stability for 46 hummingbird–plant mutualistic networks distributed across the Americas, representing 130 hummingbird species (ca 40% of all hummingbird species). We demonstrate a positive relationship between the proportion of SRS of hummingbirds and community-level specialization, i.e. the division of the floral niche among coexisting hummingbird species. This relationship remained strong even when accounting for climate, furthermore, the effect of SRS on specialization was far stronger than the effect of specialization on SRS, suggesting that climate largely influences specialization through species'' range-size dynamics. Irrespective of the exact mechanism involved, our results indicate that communities consisting of higher proportions of SRS may be vulnerable to disturbance not only because of their small geographical ranges, but also because of their high degree of specialization.     

Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics

Aim The study and prediction of species–environment relationships is currently mainly based on species distribution models. These purely correlative models neglect spatial population dynamics and assume that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment. This causes biased estimates of species niches and handicaps forecasts of range dynamics under environmental change. Here we aim to develop an approach that statistically estimates process‐based models of range dynamics from data on species distributions and permits a more comprehensive quantification of forecast uncertainties. Innovation We present an approach for the statistical estimation of process‐based dynamic range models (DRMs) that integrate Hutchinson's niche concept with spatial population dynamics. In a hierarchical Bayesian framework the environmental response of demographic rates, local population dynamics and dispersal are estimated conditional upon each other while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The method thus: (1) jointly infers species niches and spatiotemporal population dynamics from occurrence and abundance data, and (2) provides fully probabilistic forecasts of future range dynamics under environmental change. In a simulation study, we investigate the performance of DRMs for a variety of scenarios that differ in both ecological dynamics and the data used for model estimation. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of considering dynamic aspects in the collection and analysis of biodiversity data. In combination with informative data, the presented framework has the potential to markedly improve the quantification of ecological niches, the process‐based understanding of range dynamics and the forecasting of species responses to environmental change. It thereby strengthens links between biogeography, population biology and theoretical and applied ecology.