Economic returns to investment in AIDS treatment in low and middle income countries

Since the early 2000s, aid organizations and developing country governments have invested heavily in AIDS treatment. By 2010, more than five million people began receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART)--yet each year, 2.7 million people are becoming newly infected and another two million are dying without ever having received treatment. As the need for treatment grows without commensurate increase in the amount of available resources, it is critical to assess the health and economic gains being realized from increasingly large investments in ART. This study estimates total program costs and compares them with selected economic benefits of ART, for the current cohort of patients whose treatment is cofinanced by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. At end 2011, 3.5 million patients in low and middle income countries will be receiving ART through treatment programs cofinanced by the Global Fund. Using 2009 ART prices and program costs, we estimate that the discounted resource needs required for maintaining this cohort are $14.2 billion for the period 2011-2020. This investment is expected to save 18.5 million life-years and return $12 to $34 billion through increased labor productivity, averted orphan care, and deferred medical treatment for opportunistic infections and end-of-life care. Under alternative assumptions regarding the labor productivity effects of HIV infection, AIDS disease, and ART, the monetary benefits range from 81 percent to 287 percent of program costs over the same period. These results suggest that, in addition to the large health gains generated, the economic benefits of treatment will substantially offset, and likely exceed, program costs within 10 years of investment.     

Regional variations in age at diagnosis and overall survival among patients with chronic myeloid leukemia from low and middle income countries

IntroductionThe epidemiology of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in low and middle income countries is limited. As a result, we analyzed a contemporary cohort of patients from low and middle income countries treated with Imatinib through The Glivec^® International Patient Assistance Program (GIPAP).MethodsGeneralized estimating equations (GEE) and Kaplan–Meier estimation were utilized to test for regional variations in age at diagnosis and overall survival among 33,985 patients from 94 countries.ResultsPatients participated from Asia (79.2%), Africa (9.4%), Latin America (8.7%) and Southern/Eastern Europe (2.5%). Sixty-one (61.2%) percent were male. Mean age at diagnosis was 38.5 years (9.4% <20 years and only 4.7% ≥65 years). Using GEE, Asians were youngest (38.3 years), followed by Africans (39.5 years), Southern/Eastern Europeans (41.1 years) and Latin Americans (41.3 years; p < 0.0001). Diagnoses were predominately in chronic stage (78.3%). In 2002, 85.2% of patients had a delay in treatment >1 year; decreasing to 15.5% in 2010 (p < 0.0001). The 3-year overall survival probability was 89.4% (95% CI, 88.9–89.9). In multivariate analysis, risk of death increased among patients 65 years or older at diagnosis (p < 0.0001), time from diagnosis to treatment >1-year (p < 0.0001), diagnoses in the accelerated or blast crisis (p < 0.0001), initial dose of Imatinib >400 mg (p < 0.0001) and among Latin Americans and Africans (p < 0.0001).ConclusionThe GIPAP cohort is the largest series of patients with CML described from low and middle income countries. Differences in age at diagnosis and overall survival exist within and between regions. Additional epidemiological studies should be conducted to assess for possible environmental factors associated with the earlier age at onset.     

The association between ownership of common household devices and obesity and diabetes in high,middle and low income countries

Background:

Household devices (e.g., television, car, computer) are common in high income countries, and their use has been linked to obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus. We hypothesized that device ownership is associated with obesity and diabetes and that these effects are explained through reduced physical activity, increased sitting time and increased energy intake.

Methods:

We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study involving 153 996 adults from high, upper-middle, lower-middle and low income countries. We used multilevel regression models to account for clustering at the community and country levels.

Results:

Ownership of a household device increased from low to high income countries (4% to 83% for all 3 devices) and was associated with decreased physical activity and increased sitting, dietary energy intake, body mass index and waist circumference. There was an increased odds of obesity and diabetes with the ownership of any 1 household device compared to no device ownership (obesity: odds ratio [OR] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32–1.55; diabetes: OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.28–1.50). Ownership of a second device increased the odds further but ownership of a third device did not. Subsequent adjustment for lifestyle factors modestly attenuated these associations. Of the 3 devices, ownership of a television had the strongest association with obesity (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.29–1.49) and diabetes (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.23–1.44). When stratified by country income level, the odds of obesity and diabetes when owning all 3 devices was greatest in low income countries (obesity: OR 3.15, 95% CI 2.33–4.25; diabetes: OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.53–2.53) and decreased through country income levels such that we did not detect an association in high income countries.

Interpretation:

The ownership of household devices increased the likelihood of obesity and diabetes, and this was mediated in part by effects on physical activity, sitting time and dietary energy intake. With increasing ownership of household devices in developing countries, societal interventions are needed to mitigate their effects on poor health.The increasing global prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus has been driven predominantly by increases in high income countries.^1,2 However, increases are expected in low and middle income countries, due in part to rapid development and industrialization.Proximal determinants of obesity and diabetes include energy expenditure and intake;^3–5 however, the upstream factors are complex and entail numerous environmental factors. Of these, the increased use of common household devices (e.g., televisions, cars, computers) has been linked to increased sitting, decreased physical activity, obesity, metabolic syndrome and diabetes.^6–12 Time spent watching television has also been linked to poor diet¹³ and increased caloric intake.¹⁴ However, these findings are based on studies in high income countries where the ownership of these devices is common.^15,16 In low and middle income countries, such household devices are less prevalent, but their prevalence is rapidly increasing. Studies in countries with greater variability in the ownership of household devices are needed to understand the full effect of owning such devices on the risk of obesity and diabetes.We hypothesized that the ownership of a television, car or computer would be associated with an increased risk of obesity and diabetes and that these effects would be explained by reduced physical activity, increased sitting time and increased energy intake.     

User and researcher collaborations in mental health in low and middle income countries: a case study of the EMPOWER project

Background

Zinc deficiency is a major public health problem in many developing countries including Nepal. The present study was designed to assess the prevalence of zinc deficiency and to study the association of zinc deficiency with anthropometric and socio-demographic variables, in school children of eastern Nepal.

Methods

This cross-sectional study included total 125 school children of age group 6–12 years from Sunsari and Dhankuta districts of eastern Nepal. Plasma zinc level was estimated by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy.

Results

The Median interquartile range (IQR) values of zinc in the two districts Sunsari and Dhankuta were 5.9 (4.4, 7.9) μmol/L and 5.8 (4.3, 8.4) μmol/L respectively. A total of 55 children (87.3%) in Sunsari and 52 (83.9%) in Dhankuta had zinc deficiency, no significant difference was observed in the Median (IQR) plasma zinc levels (p = 0.9) and zinc deficiency patterns (p = 0.3) of the two districts. Significant differences were observed in the plasma zinc levels (p = 0.02) and zinc deficiency patterns (p = 0.001), of the school children having age groups 6–8 years than in 9–10 and 11–12 years of age, and zinc deficiency patterns between male and female school children (p = 0.04) respectively.

Conclusions

The present study showed higher prevalence of zinc deficiency among school children in eastern Nepal. In our study, zinc deficiency was associated with both sex and age. The findings from the present study will help to populate data for policy implementation regarding consumption and supplementation of zinc.     

Estimating pneumonia deaths of post-neonatal children in countries of low or no death certification in 2008

Background

Pneumonia is the leading cause of child deaths globally. The aims of this study were to: a) estimate the number and global distribution of pneumonia deaths for children 1–59 months for 2008 for countries with low (<85%) or no coverage of death certification using single-cause regression models and b) compare these country estimates with recently published ones based on multi-cause regression models.

Methods and Findings

For 35 low child-mortality countries with <85% coverage of death certification, a regression model based on vital registration data of low child-mortality and >85% coverage of death certification countries was used. For 87 high child-mortality countries pneumonia death estimates were obtained by applying a regression model developed from published and unpublished verbal autopsy data from high child-mortality settings. The total number of 1–59 months pneumonia deaths for the year 2008 for these 122 countries was estimated to be 1.18 M (95% CI 0.77 M–1.80 M), which represented 23.27% (95% CI 17.15%–32.75%) of all 1–59 month child deaths. The country level estimation correlation coefficient between these two methods was 0.40.

Interpretation

Although the overall number of post-neonatal pneumonia deaths was similar irrespective to the method of estimation used, the country estimate correlation coefficient was low, and therefore country-specific estimates should be interpreted with caution. Pneumonia remains the leading cause of child deaths and is greatest in regions of poverty and high child-mortality. Despite the concerns about gender inequity linked with childhood mortality we could not estimate sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates due to the inadequate data. Life-saving interventions effective in preventing and treating pneumonia mortality exist but few children in high pneumonia disease burden regions are able to access them. To achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 target to reduce child deaths by two-thirds in year 2015 will require the scale-up of access to these effective pneumonia interventions.     

Social determinants of health and tobacco use in thirteen low and middle income countries: evidence from Global Adult Tobacco Survey

Background

Tobacco use has been identified as the single biggest cause of inequality in morbidity. The objective of this study is to examine the role of social determinants on current tobacco use in thirteen low-and-middle income countries.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used nationally representative data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) conducted during 2008–2010 in 13 low-and-middle income countries: Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Uruguay, and Viet Nam. These surveys provided information on 209,027 respondent''s aged 15 years and above and the country datasets were analyzed individually for estimating current tobacco use across various socio-demographic factors (gender, age, place of residence, education, wealth index, and knowledge on harmful effects of smoking). Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to predict the impact of these determinants on current tobacco use status. Current tobacco use was defined as current smoking or use of smokeless tobacco, either daily or occasionally. Former smokers were excluded from the analysis. Adjusted odds ratios for current tobacco use after controlling other cofactors, was significantly higher for males across all countries and for urban areas in eight of the 13 countries. For educational level, the trend was significant in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Philippines and Thailand demonstrating decreasing prevalence of tobacco use with increasing levels of education. For wealth index, the trend of decreasing prevalence of tobacco use with increasing wealth was significant for Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Uruguay and Viet Nam. The trend of decreasing prevalence with increasing levels of knowledge on harmful effects of smoking was significant in China, India, Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, Thailand, Ukraine and Viet Nam.

Conclusions/Significance

These findings demonstrate a significant but varied role of social determinants on current tobacco use within and across countries.     

The association between temperature and mortality in tropical middle income Thailand from 1999 to 2008

We have investigated the association between tropical weather condition and age-sex adjusted death rates (ADR) in Thailand over a 10-year period from 1999 to 2008. Population, mortality, weather and air pollution data were obtained from four national databases. Alternating multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) regression and stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis were used to sequentially build models of the associations between temperature variable and deaths, adjusted for the effects and interactions of age, sex, weather (6 variables), and air pollution (10 variables). The associations are explored and compared among three seasons (cold, hot and wet months) and four weather zones of Thailand (the North, Northeast, Central, and South regions). We found statistically significant associations between temperature and mortality in Thailand. The maximum temperature is the most important variable in predicting mortality. Overall, the association is nonlinear U-shape and 31 °C is the minimum-mortality temperature in Thailand. The death rates increase when maximum temperature increase with the highest rates in the North and Central during hot months. The final equation used in this study allowed estimation of the impact of a 4 °C increase in temperature as projected for Thailand by 2100; this analysis revealed that the heat-related deaths will increase more than the cold-related deaths avoided in the hot and wet months, and overall the net increase in expected mortality by region ranges from 5 to 13 % unless preventive measures were adopted. Overall, these results are useful for health impact assessment for the present situation and future public health implication of global climate change for tropical Thailand.     

The role of hospital-based cancer registries in low and middle income countries-The Nigerian Case Study

Background: The incidence of cancer continues to rise all over the world and current projections show that there will be 1.27 million new cases and almost 1 million deaths by 2030. In view of the rising incidence of cancer in sub-Saharan Africa, urgent steps are needed to guide appropriate policy, health sector investment and resource allocation. We posit that hospital based cancer registries (HBCR) are fundamental sources of information on the frequent cancer sites in limited resource regions where population level data is often unavailable. In regions where population based cancer registries are not in existence, HBCR are beneficial for policy and planning. Materials and methods: Nineteen of twenty-one cancer registries in Nigeria met the definition of HBCR, and from these registries, we requested data on cancer cases recorded from January 2009 to December 2010. 16 of the 19 registries (84%) responded. Data on year hospital was established; year cancer registry was established, no. of pathologists and types of oncology services available in each tertiary health facility were shown. Analysis of relative frequency of cancers in each HBCR, the basis of diagnosis recorded in the HBCR and the total number of cases recorded by gender was carried out. Results: The total number of cancers registered in these 11 hospital based cancer registries in 2009 and 2010 was 6484. The number of new cancer cases recorded annually in these hospital based cancer registries on average was 117 cases in males and I77 cases in females. Breast and cervical cancer were the most common cancers seen in women while prostate cancer was the commonest among men seen in these tertiary hospitals. Conclusion: Information provided by HBCR is beneficial and can be utilized for the improvement of cancer care delivery systems in low and middle income countries where there are no population based cancer registries.     

Selective mortality and the anthropometric status of children in low- and middle-income countries

Despite a close relationship between the childrens’ anthropometric status and mortality rates, the highest mortality rates are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, while the lowest anthropometric indicators, in particular the height-for-age z-scores, are concentrated in South Asia. This discrepancy should, however, be expected to decrease when one accounts for the survivorship bias, i.e. selective mortality. We analyse whether the survivorship bias can explain these observed differences in three standard anthropometric indicators (stunting, underweight and wasting) by using individual data of children from six waves of Demographic and Health Surveys for a large cross-section of 37 low- and middle-income countries between 1991 and 2016. We use both a matching approach and semi-parametric regression to estimate the values for the anthropometric status of deceased children. The results are twofold: first, both methods reveal that the imputed values for the anthropometric indicators are, on average, between 0.10 and 0.25 standard deviations lower than the observed anthropometric indicators. Second, since the share of deceased children in our sample is below ten per cent, the contribution of the anthropometric status of deceased children to overall anthropometric indicators is small and therefore only influences it marginally.     

Livelihood security and adherence to antiretroviral therapy in low and middle income settings: a systematic review

Introduction

We sought to examine the association between livelihood security and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ARVs) in low- and middle-income countries (LIMC).

Methods

Performing a systematic review, we searched, independently and in duplicate, 7 electronic databases and 2 conference websites for quantitative surveys that examined the association between indicators of livelihood security and adherence to ARVs in LIMC between 2000–2010. Criteria for relevance were applied to complete papers (quantitative study with estimates of associations) and quality assessment was conducted on those deemed relevant. We performed three regressions to measure the association between each type of livelihood and adherence.

Results

Twenty original studies and 6 conference abstracts were included, the majority from Africa (n = 16). Seventeen studies and 3 conference abstracts were cross-sectional and 3 studies and 3 abstracts were prospective clinical cohort studies, with considerable variation in quality for studies of each design type. Among the diverse populations represented, we observed considerable variation in associations between measurements of livelihood indicators and increasingly accepted adherence measures, irrespective of study design or quality. A financial capital indicator, financial constraints/payment for ARV medication, was more commonly associated with non-adherence (3/5 studies). A human capital indicator, educational level, was most commonly associated with adherence (11/20 studies).

Discussion

Additional better quality research examining livelihood security is required to inform provision of optimal supports for adherence and mitigation of the impacts of HIV/AIDS.