High‐resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea‐level rise

Sea‐level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea‐level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea‐level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate‐driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea‐level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction.     

Responses of Plant Communities to Incremental Hydrologic Restoration of a Tide-Restricted Salt Marsh in Southern New England (Massachusetts, U.S.A.)

Hydrologic restoration of Hatches Harbor, a tide-restricted marsh on Cape Cod (Massachusetts), has resulted in significant plant community changes 7 years following the reintroduction of seawater. Since 1999, incremental increases in flow through a tide-restricting dike have facilitated the rapid decline of salt-intolerant vegetation, while encouraging the expansion of native salt marsh taxa. These changes show strong spatial gradients and are correlated with marsh surface elevation, distance from the point of seawater entry, and porewater salinity. Common reed ( Phragmites australis ) has not decreased in abundance but has migrated a considerable distance upslope. In the wake of this retreat native halophytes have proliferated. Now that maximum flow through the existing dike structure has been reached, continued recovery may be limited less by changing physicochemical conditions and more by rates of growth, seed dispersal, and seed germination of salt marsh taxa.     

Determinants of species‐area relationships for marsh‐nesting birds

ABSTRACT To clarify the underlying causes of the species‐area relationship in marsh‐nesting birds, I studied eight freshwater tidal marshes of the Connecticut River that differed in area, degree of isolation, mudflat cover, water cover, tidal regime, and extent of individual plant communities. I measured these habitat variables on aerial infrared photos, and surveyed bird populations by mapping the distribution of all birds in marshes under 5 ha in area and establishing 50‐m radius plots in marshes over 5 ha. From surveys, I determined species richness, population densities, and total populations. Analysis revealed a positive relationship between species richness and area, but no correlation between area and habitat heterogeneity. Other habitat variables were poor predictors of species richness. The lack of a relationship between habitat and species richness appeared to be a consequence of most vegetation types present not being sufficiently distinct for birds to differentially associate with them. I also found no relationship between bird population density and area, suggesting that habitat quality in marshes did not improve with increasing size, and species evenness declined with increasing richness because greater richness was associated with the presence of more rare species. Larger marshes had more rare species, species with larger populations, and species with a minimum threshold area for occurrence. Thus, my results are consistent with theoretical predictions that larger populations are less prone to local extinction and, as individuals are added to a community, more rare species are present.     

Sea‐level rise,habitat loss,and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Belding's savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we used a site‐specific, one‐dimensional elevation model (wetland accretion rate model of ecosystem resilience). We then applied our elevation‐suitability model to the projected digital elevation models. The resulting maps suggest that suitable breeding and foraging habitat could decline as increased inundation converts middle‐ and high‐elevation suitable habitat to mudflat and subtidal zones. As a result, the highest SLR scenario predicted that no suitable breeding or foraging habitat would remain at any site by 2100 and 2110. Removing development constraints to facilitate landward migration of high salt marsh, or redistributing dredge spoils to replace submerged habitat, might create future high salt marsh habitat, thereby reducing extirpation risk for BSSP in southern California.     

Distribution of saltmarsh plant communities associated with environmental factors along a latitudinal gradient on the south‐west Atlantic coast

Aim To produce an inventory of south‐west Atlantic saltmarshes (from latitude 31°48′ S to 43°20′ S) using remotely sensed images and field sampling; to quantify their total area; to describe the biogeographical variation of the main habitats characterized by dominant vascular plants, in relation to major environmental factors; to test the hypothesis of predominance of the reversal pattern in plant distribution (sedges and grasses dominate the lower, regularly inundated zones, while the upper zones are occupied by more halophytic species) previously described; and to compare these south‐west Atlantic saltmarshes with others world‐wide. Location South‐western Atlantic saltmarshes Methods Field samples of dominant emergent plant species positioned by the global positioning system (GPS) were obtained from most coastal saltmarshes (14) between southern Brazil and northern Patagonia, Argentina. Landsat satellite images were obtained and coastal saltmarsh habitats were quantified by supervised classification, utilizing points gathered in the field. Results Three main plant species dominated the low and middle intertidal saltmarsh, Spartina alterniflora Loesel., Spartina densiflora Brong. and Sarcocornia perennis (P. Mill.) A.J. Scott. The total area of the studied coastal saltmarshes was 2133 km², comprising 380 km² of Sp. alterniflora marsh, 366 km² of Sp. densiflora marsh, 746 km² of Sar. perennis marsh and 641 km² of brackish marsh (dominated by Juncus acutus L., Juncus kraussii Hochst., Scirpus maritimus L., Scirpus americanus Pers. and Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin.). Cluster analysis showed three habitat types: saltmarshes dominated by (1) Sp. densiflora and brackish species,(2) Sp. alterniflora and Sar. perennis and (3) Sp.densiflora only. The analysis of abiotic variables showed significant differences between groups of habitats and coordinated gradients of the abiotic variables. The south‐west Atlantic coast showed decreasing mean annual rainfall (1200 to 196 mm) and increasing mean tidal amplitude (< 0.5 to > 2.5 m) from latitude 31° to 43°. Main conclusions South‐west Atlantic saltmarshes are globally important by virtue of their total extent. Remote sensing showed that the reversal pattern in plant distribution is not widespread. Indeed, south‐west Atlantic saltmarshes are better characterized by the presence of the halophytic genera Spartina and Sarcocornia. Our results support the interpretation that south‐west Atlantic saltmarshes constitute a class of temperate type (sensu Adam, 1990 ) with transitional characteristics between Australasian–South African saltmarshes and west Atlantic saltmarshes.     

An anthropogenic habitat within a suboptimal colonized ecosystem provides improved conditions for a range‐shifting species

Many species are shifting their ranges in response to the changing climate. In cases where such shifts lead to the colonization of a new ecosystem, it is critical to establish how the shifting species itself is impacted by novel environmental and biological interactions. Anthropogenic habitats that are analogous to the historic habitat of a shifting species may play a crucial role in the ability of that species to expand or persist in suboptimal colonized ecosystems. We tested if the anthropogenic habitat of docks, a likely mangrove analog, provides improved conditions for the range‐shifting mangrove tree crab Aratus pisonii within the colonized suboptimal salt marsh ecosystem. To test if docks provided an improved habitat, we compared the impact of the salt marsh and dock habitats on ecological and life history traits that influence the ability of this species to persist and expand into the salt marsh and compared these back to baselines in the historic mangrove ecosystem. Specifically, we examined behavior, physiology, foraging, and the thermal conditions of A. pisonii in each habitat. We found that docks provide a more favorable thermal and foraging habitat than the surrounding salt marsh, while their ability to provide conditions which improved behavior and physiology was mixed. Our study shows that anthropogenic habitats can act as analogs to historic ecosystems and enhance the habitat quality for range‐shifting species in colonized suboptimal ecosystems. If the patterns that we document are general across systems, then anthropogenic habitats may play an important facilitative role in the range shifts of species with continued climate change.     

Changes in soil properties and resistance to concentrated flow across a 25‐year passive restoration chronosequence of grasslands on the Chinese Loess Plateau

Revegetation represents an effective measure for preventing soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. However, the effects of revegetation‐induced changes in soil and root properties on soil resistance to concentrated flow erosion (SRC) remain unclear. This study sampled soils and roots across a 25‐year chronosequence from farmland to grasslands of different ages (3, 7, 10, 18, and 25 years) to quantify variations in soil and root properties (soil bulk density, SBD; soil disintegration rate, SDR; saturated hydraulic conductivity, SHC; organic matter content, OMC; water‐stable aggregate, WSA; mean weight diameter, MWD; root mass density, RMD; root length density, RLD; and root surface area density, RSAD) and their effects on SRC. Farmland and grassland SRCs were obtained using a hydraulic flume. Soil properties and root density gradually improved with restoration time. In terms of the comprehensive soil property index calculated via principal component analysis, grassland values were 0.66 to 1.94 times greater than farmland values. Grassland SRCs increased and gradually stabilized (>18 years) over time and were 1.60 to 8.26 times greater than farmland SRC. SRC improvement was significantly related to increases in OMC, SHC, WSA, and MWD and decreases in SBD and SDR over time. SRC was effectively simulated by the Hill curve of RMD, RLD, and RSAD. SDR, SHC, and RMD (0.5–1.0 mm) affected SRC the most. This study scientifically describes how revegetation improves soil quality and soil resistance to flow erosion, and suggests that vegetations rich in 0.5–1.0 mm roots should be preferred during revegetation.     

Demographic costs and benefits of herbicide‐based restoration to enhance habitat for an endangered butterfly and a threatened plant

Restoring habitat degraded by invasive species is often a primary focus of conservation strategies, yet few studies investigate the effects of invasive species control on multiple at‐risk taxa. Selective herbicides are increasingly used because they can selectively reduce aggressive invasive plant species with the aim of minimizing effects on other taxa within the habitat. We conducted a four‐year experiment to test how annual application of grass‐specific herbicide affected the demography on Fender's blue butterfly (Icaricia icarioides fenderi) and Kincaid's lupine (Lupinus oreganus), two federally protected species which persist in highly degraded prairie remnants in western Oregon, USA. Effects of herbicide application were transitory for the butterfly; reduction of invasive grasses increased fecundity and led to higher annual population growth (λ) at one of two conservation areas in the first season. There were no detectable differences in λ in subsequent seasons—suggesting that treatments caused neither extensive harm nor extensive benefit to the butterfly population. For the lupine, there were no detectable differences in leaf and flower abundance between control and herbicide treatments. However, greater seed production in herbicide plots in the first and third seasons suggests that lupines in herbicide‐treated plots have greater potential reproductive success. While treatments do not have a long‐term benefit to annual population growth for the butterfly, increasing reproductive success of the threatened plant may justify integrating this strategy into restoration plans. Considering the impact of restoration practices on the demography of multiple at‐risk taxa within a community is critical to effective recovery strategies.     

Observations of responses to re‐introducing fire in a Basalt Plains grassland after the removal of grazing: Implications for restoration

Natural grasslands in southern Australia commonly exist in altered states. One widespread altered state is grassland pasture dominated by cool‐season (C3) native grasses maintained by ongoing grazing. This study explores the consequences of removing grazing and introducing fire as a conservation management tool for such a site. We examined the abundance of two native and three exotic species, across a mosaic of fire regimes that occurred over a three‐year period: unburnt, summer wild‐fire (>2 years previous), autumn management fire (<1 year previously) and burnt in both fires. Given that one aim of conservation management is to increase native species at the expense of exotics, the impacts of the fires were largely positive. Native grasses were at higher cover levels in the fire‐managed vegetation than in the unburnt vegetation. Of the three exotic species, one was consistently at lower density in the burnt plots compared to the unburnt plots, while the others were lower only in those plots burnt in summer. The results show that the response of a species varies significantly between different fire events, and that the effects of one fire can persist through subsequent fires. Importantly, some of the effects were large, with changes in the density of plants of over 100‐fold. Fire is potentially a cost‐effective tool to assist the ecological restoration of retired grassland pastures at large scales.     

A review of predation as a limiting factor for bird populations in mesopredator‐rich landscapes: a case study of the UK

The impact of increasing vertebrate predator numbers on bird populations is widely debated among the general public, game managers and conservationists across Europe. However, there are few systematic reviews of whether predation limits the population sizes of European bird species. Views on the impacts of predation are particularly polarised in the UK, probably because the UK has a globally exceptional culture of intensive, high‐yield gamebird management where predator removal is the norm. In addition, most apex predators have been exterminated or much depleted in numbers, contributing to a widely held perception that the UK has high numbers of mesopredators. This has resulted in many high‐quality studies of mesopredator impacts over several decades. Here we present results from a systematic review of predator trends and abundance, and assess whether predation limits the population sizes of 90 bird species in the UK. Our results confirm that the generalist predators Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) and Crows (Corvus corone and C. cornix) occur at high densities in the UK compared with other European countries. In addition, some avian and mammalian predators have increased numerically in the UK during recent decades. Despite these high and increasing densities of predators, we found little evidence that predation limits populations of pigeons, woodpeckers and passerines, whereas evidence suggests that ground‐nesting seabirds, waders and gamebirds can be limited by predation. Using life‐history characteristics of prey species, we found that mainly long‐lived species with high adult survival and late onset of breeding were limited by predation. Single‐brooded species were also more likely to be limited by predation than multi‐brooded species. Predators that depredate prey species during all life stages (i.e. from nest to adult stages) limited prey numbers more than predators that depredated only specific life stages (e.g. solely during the nest phase). The Red Fox and non‐native mammals (e.g. the American Mink Neovison vison) were frequently identified as numerically limiting their prey species. Our review has identified predator–prey interactions that are particularly likely to result in population declines of prey species. In the short term, traditional predator‐management techniques (e.g. lethal control or fencing to reduce predation by a small number of predator species) could be used to protect these vulnerable species. However, as these techniques are costly and time‐consuming, we advocate that future research should identify land‐use practices and landscape configurations that would reduce predator numbers and predation rates.     

Not going with the flow: a comprehensive time‐calibrated phylogeny of dragonflies (Anisoptera: Odonata: Insecta) provides evidence for the role of lentic habitats on diversification

Ecological diversification of aquatic insects has long been suspected to have been driven by differences in freshwater habitats, which can be classified into flowing (lotic) waters and standing (lentic) waters. The contrasting characteristics of lotic and lentic freshwater systems imply different ecological constraints on their inhabitants. The ephemeral and discontinuous character of most lentic water bodies may encourage dispersal by lentic species in turn reducing geographical isolation among populations. Hence, speciation probability would be lower in lentic species. Here, we assess the impact of habitat use on diversification patterns in dragonflies (Anisoptera: Odonata). Based on the eight nuclear and mitochondrial genes, we inferred species diversification with a model‐based evolutionary framework, to account for rate variation through time and among lineages and to estimate the impact of larval habitat on the potentially nonrandom diversification among anisopteran groups. Ancestral state reconstruction revealed lotic fresh water systems as their original primary habitat, while lentic waters have been colonized independently in Aeshnidae, Corduliidae and Libellulidae. Furthermore, our results indicate a positive correlation of speciation and lentic habitat colonization by dragonflies: speciation rates increased in lentic Aeshnidae and Libellulidae, whereas they remain mostly uniform among lotic groups. This contradicts the hypothesis of inherently lower speciation in lentic groups and suggests species with larger ranges are more likely to diversify, perhaps due to higher probability of larger areas being dissected by geographical barriers. Furthermore, larger range sizes may comprise more habitat types, which could also promote speciation by providing additional niches, allowing the coexistence of emerging species.