A modern pollen–climate calibration set from northern Europe: developing and testing a tool for palaeoclimatological reconstructions

Aims and location The potential of pollen records in quantitative climate reconstructions has been widely debated but seldom tested. Our aim is to develop a pollen–climate transfer function for northern Europe and test its performance and inference power by numerical cross‐validation with modern climate data. Annual mean temperature (T_ann) was assessed as the critical climatic variable because T_ann has a distinct south–north gradient (5.5 to ?4.7 °C) in the study region with a corresponding zonal vegetation gradient from the hemiboreal zone in the south to the northern boreal zone in the north. Methods We collected 137 pollen surface samples from small‐ to medium size lakes from southern Estonia to northern Finland. The transfer function for T_ann was developed with weighted averaging partial least squares (WA‐PLS) regression. All 102 terrestrial pollen and spore types were included in the calculation sum and all 137 surface samples and all 102 taxa were included in the transfer function. The performance of the WA‐PLS transfer function was evaluated by leave‐one‐out cross‐validation. Results A cross‐validated root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of our model is 0.89 °C and the coefficient of determination (r²) between the observed meteorological T_ann values and those predicted by the model in leave‐one‐out cross‐validation is 0.88. The RMSEP as a percentage of the gradient length of T_ann is 8.8%. These figures indicate high performance statistics for our transfer function compared with other inference models. This is probably because of standardization of our surface‐sampling and pollen‐analytical procedures, careful selection of the surface sample sites with consideration of the relevant pollen source area, the simple patterns of vegetation zones and climate in the study area, and the mostly natural floristic composition of the forests in northern Europe. However, we also demonstrate the limitations of our model in reliably detecting fine‐scale climatic variability. Main conclusions The study shows the strong influence of T_ann on modern pollen composition and demonstrates the potential of pollen data for long‐term climate reconstructions in northern Europe. It also provides evidence against simple interpretations of fine‐scale variations in a single climate reconstruction. In particular, our results highlight the importance of careful study design and implementation in the construction of pollen–climate transfer functions.     

How shrub encroachment under climate change could threaten pollination services for alpine wildflowers: A case study using the alpine skypilot,Polemonium viscosum

Under climate change, shrubs encroaching into high altitude plant communities disrupt ecosystem processes. Yet effects of encroachment on pollination mutualisms are poorly understood. Here, we probe potential fitness impacts of interference from encroaching Salix (willows) on pollination quality of the alpine skypilot, Polemonium viscosum. Overlap in flowering time of Salix and Polemonium is a precondition for interference and was surveyed in four extant and 25 historic contact zones. Pollinator sharing was ascertained from observations of willow pollen on bumble bees visiting Polemonium flowers and on Polemonium pistils. We probed fitness effects of pollinator sharing by measuring the correlation between Salix pollen contamination and seed set in naturally pollinated Polemonium. To ascertain whether Salix interference occurred during or after pollination, we compared seed set under natural pollination, conspecific pollen addition, and Salix pollen addition. In current and past contact zones Polemonium and Salix overlapped in flowering time. After accounting for variance in flowering date due to latitude, Salix and Polemonium showed similar advances in flowering under warmer summers. This trend supports the idea that sensitivity to temperature promotes reproductive synchrony in both species. Salix pollen is carried by bumble bees when visiting Polemonium flowers and accounts for up to 25% of the grains on Polemonium pistils. Salix contamination correlates with reduced seed set in nature and when applied experimentally. Postpollination processes likely mediate these deleterious effects as seed set in nature was not limited by pollen delivery. Synthesis: As willows move higher with climate change, we predict that they will drive postpollination interference, reducing the fitness benefits of pollinator visitation for Polemonium and selecting for traits that reduce pollinator sharing.