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1.
Uncertainty calculation in life cycle assessments 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Goal and Background Uncertainty is commonly not taken into account in LCA studies, which downgrades their usability for decision support. One
often stated reason is a lack of method. The aim of this paper is to develop a method for calculating the uncertainty propagation
in LCAs in a fast and reliable manner.
Approach The method is developed in a model that reflects the calculation of an LCA. For calculating the uncertainty, the model combines
approximation formulas and Monte Carlo Simulation. It is based on virtual data that distinguishes true values and random errors
or uncertainty, and that hence allows one to compare the performance of error propagation formulas and simulation results.
The model is developed for a linear chain of processes, but extensions for covering also branched and looped product systems
are made and described.
Results The paper proposes a combined use of approximation formulas and Monte Carlo simulation for calculating uncertainty in LCAs,
developed primarily for the sequential approach. During the calculation, a parameter observation controls the performance
of the approximation formulas. Quantitative threshold values are given in the paper. The combination thus transcends drawbacks
of simulation and approximation.
Conclusions and Outlook The uncertainty question is a true jigsaw puzzle for LCAs and the method presented in this paper may serve as one piece in
solving it. It may thus foster a sound use of uncertainty assessment in LCAs. Analysing a proper management of the input uncertainty,
taking into account suitable sampling and estimation techniques; using the approach for real case studies, implementing it
in LCA software for automatically applying the proposed combined uncertainty model and, on the other hand, investigating about
how people do decide, and should decide, when their decision relies on explicitly uncertain LCA outcomes-these all are neighbouring
puzzle pieces inviting to further work. 相似文献
2.
4.
《Current opinion in chemical biology》2013,17(3):439-443
.Highlights► Biofuel LCAs have high uncertainty and variability, particularly prospective LCAs. ► Variability in biofuel LCAs has two sources: model and methods-induced, and real. ► LCAs of 2nd-generation fuels are so uncertain that no pathway can clearly be preferred. ► Algae biodiesel LCA has greatest variability due to diverse technology, assumptions. 相似文献
5.
Andreas J?rgensen Louise C. Dreyer Arne Wangel 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2012,17(6):828-839
Purpose
In the recently published ??Guidelines for social life cycle assessment of products??, it is stated that the ultimate objective of developing the social life cycle assessment (SLCA) is to promote improvements of social conditions for the stakeholders in the life cycle. This article addresses how the SLCA should be developed so that its use promotes these improvements.Methods
Hypotheses of how the use of SLCA can promote improvement of social conditions in the life cycle are formulated, after which theories and empirical findings from relevant fields of research are used to address the validity of these hypotheses.Results
Three in some cases potentially overlapping SLCA approaches are presented, assumed to create a beneficial effect in the life cycle in different ways. However, empirical and theoretical findings show that the beneficial effects proposed to arise from the use of each of these three approaches may all be problematic. Some of these problems may be mitigated through methodological modifications.Conclusions
Given the significant problems in relation to creating an effect through the use of the SLCAs, and given the significant practical problems in applying the SLCAs, it is questioned whether the development of SLCA is a fruitful approach for improving social conditions in the product life cycle. 相似文献6.
7.
Joyce Cooper Christina Godwin Edie Sonne Hall 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2008,13(2):115-123
Background, Aims and Scope Although LCA is frequently used in product comparison, many practitioners are interested in identifying and assessing improvements
within a life cycle. Thus, the goals of this work are to provide guidelines for scenario formulation for process and material alternatives
within a life cycle inventory and to evaluate the usefulness of decision tree and matrix computational structures in the assessment
of material and process alternatives. We assume that if the analysis goal is to guide the selection among alternatives towards
reduced life cycle environmental impacts, then the analysis should estimate the inventory results in a manner that: (1) reveals
the optimal set of processes with respect to minimization of each impact of interest, and (2) minimizes and organizes computational
and data collection needs.
Methods A sample industrial system is used to reveal the complexities of scenario formulation for process and material alternatives
in an LCI. The system includes 4 processes, each executable in 2 different ways, as well as 1 process able to use 2 different
materials interchangeably. We formulate and evaluate scenarios for this system using three different methods and find advantages
and disadvantages with each. First, the single branch decision tree method stays true to the typical construction of decision
trees such that each branch of the tree represents a single scenario. Next, the process flow decision tree method strays from
the typical construction of decision trees by following the process flow of the product system, such that multiple branches
are needed to represent a single scenario. In the final method, disaggregating the demand vector, each scenario is represented
by separate vectors which are combined into a matrix to allow the simultaneous solution of the inventory problem for all scenarios.
Results For both decision tree and matrix methods, scenario formulation, data collection, and scenario analysis are facilitated in
two ways. First, process alternatives that cannot actually be chosen should be modeled as sub-inventories (or as a complete
LCI within an LCI). Second, material alternatives (e.g., a choice between structural materials) must be maintained within
the analysis to avoid the creation of artificial multi-functional processes. Further, in the same manner that decision trees
can be used to estimate ‘expected value’ (the sum of the probability of each scenario multiplied by its ‘value’), we find
that expected inventory and impact results can be defined for both decision tree and matrix methods.
Discussion For scenario formulation, naming scenarios in a way that differentiate them from other scenarios is complex and important
in the continuing development of LCI data for use in databases or LCA software. In the formulation and assessment of scenarios,
decision tree methods offer some level of visual appeal and the potential for using commercially available software/ traditional
decision tree solution constructs for estimating expected values (for relatively small or highly aggregated product systems).
However, solving decision tree systems requires the use of sequential process scaling which is difficult to formalize with
mathematical notation. In contrast, preparation of a demand matrix does not require use of the sequential method to solve
the inventory problem but requires careful scenario tracking efforts.
Conclusions Here, we recognize that improvements can be made within a product system. This recognition supports the greater use of LCA
in supply chain formation and product research, development, and design. We further conclude that although both decision tree
and matrix methods are formulated herein to reveal optimal life cycle scenarios, the use of demand matrices is preferred in
the preparation of a formal mathematical construct. Further, for both methods, data collection and assessment are facilitated
by the use of sub-inventories (or as a complete LCI within an LCI) for process alternatives and the full consideration of
material alternatives to avoid the creation of artificial multi-functional processes.
Recommendations and Perspectives The methods described here are used in the assessment of forest management alternatives and are being further developed to
form national commodity models considering technology alternatives, national production mixes and imports, and point-to-point
transportation models.
ESS-Submission Editor: Thomas Gloria, PhD (t.gloria@fivewinds.com) 相似文献
8.
Ladenika A. O. Bodunrin Michael Oluwatosin Burman Nicholas W. Croft Joel Engelbrecht Shaun Goga Taahira MacGregor O. S. Maepa Mpho Harding Kevin G. 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2019,24(4):614-619
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - This study aims to present the availability of studies that are related to life cycle assessments (LCA) in Austria since 2000. This study also... 相似文献
9.
Comparative life cycle assessments of incineration and non-incineration treatments for medical waste
Wei Zhao Ester van der Voet Gjalt Huppes Yufeng Zhang 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2009,14(2):114-121
Background, aim, and scope Management of the medical waste produced in hospitals or health care facilities has raised concerns relating to public health,
occupational safety, and the environment. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a decision-supporting tool in waste management practice;
but relatively little research has been done on the evaluation of medical waste treatment from a life cycle perspective. Our
study compares the environmental performances of two dominant technologies, hazardous waste incineration (HWI) as a type of
incineration technology and steam autoclave sterilization with sanitary landfill (AL) as a type of non-incineration technology,
for specific medical waste of average composition. The results of this study could support the medical waste hierarchy.
Materials and methods This study implemented the ISO 14040 standard. Data on steam autoclave sterilization were obtained from an on-site operations
report, while inventory models were used for HWI, sanitary landfill, and residues landfill. Background data were from the
ecoinvent database. The comparative LCA was carried out for five alternatives: HWI with energy recovery efficiencies of 0%,
15%, and 30% and AL with energy recovery efficiencies of 0% and 10%.
Results The assumptions on the time frame for landfill markedly affect the impact category scores; however, the orders of preference
for both time frames are almost the same. HWI with 30% energy recovery efficiency has the lowest environmental impacts for
all impact categories, except freshwater ecotoxicity. Incineration and sanitary landfill processes dominate global warming,
freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity, and eutrophication of incineration and non-incineration alternatives, respectively. Dioxin
emissions contribute about 10% to human toxicity in HWI without energy recovery alternatives, and a perturbation analysis
yielded identical results. As regards eutrophication, non-incineration treatments have an approximately sevenfold higher impact
than incineration treatments.
Discussion The differences between short-term and long-term time frame assumptions mainly are decided by heavy metals dissolved in the
future leachate. The high heat value of medical waste due to high contents of biomass, plastic, and rubber materials and a
lower content of ash, results in a preference for incineration treatments. The large eutrophication difference between incineration
and non-incineration treatments is caused by different N element transformations. Dioxin emission from HWI is not the most
relevant to human toxicity; however, large uncertainties could exist.
Conclusions From a life cycle perspective, the conventional waste hierarchy, implying incineration with energy recovery is better than
landfill, also applies to the case of medical waste. The sanitary landfill process is the key issue in non-incineration treatments,
and HWI and the subsequent residues landfill processes are key issues in incineration treatments.
Recommendations and perspectives Integrating the medical waste hierarchy and constructing a medical waste framework require broader technologies to be investigated
further, based on a life cycle approach.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
10.
Simon Davidsson Mikael H??k G?ran Wall 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2012,17(6):729-742
Purpose
Several life cycle assessments (LCAs) of wind energy published in recent years are reviewed to identify methodological differences and underlying assumptions.Methods
A full comparative analysis of 12 studies were undertaken (ten peer-reviewed papers, one conference paper, and one industry report) regarding six fundamental factors (methods used, energy use accounting, quantification of energy production, energy performance and primary energy, natural resources, and recycling). Each factor is discussed in detail to highlight strengths and shortcomings of various approaches.Results
Several potential issues are found concerning the way LCA methods are used for assessing energy performance and environmental impact of wind energy, as well as dealing with natural resource use and depletion. The potential to evaluate natural resource use and depletion impacts from wind energy appears to be poorly exploited or elaborated on in the reviewed studies. Estimations of energy performance and environmental impacts are critically analyzed and found to differ significantly.Conclusions and recommendations
A continued discussion and development of LCA methodology for wind energy and other energy resources are encouraged. Efforts should be made to standardize methods and calculations. Inconsistent use of terminology and concepts among the analyzed studies are found and should be remedied. Different methods are generally used and the results are presented in diverse ways, making it difficult to compare studies with each other, but also with other renewable energy sources. 相似文献11.
Gil Rodrigo Bojacá Carlos Ricardo Schrevens Eddie 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2021,26(3):604-615
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - The presence of correlations between input parameters in a life cycle assessment (LCA) is a well-known issue. On top of that, the univariate... 相似文献
12.
During metazoan development cells destined for different fates become asymmetric, not just in morphology and developmental potential but also in cell-cycle timing. A recent study has now shown that differential cell-cycle timing in the first cell divisions of the Caenorhabditis elegans embryo is in part controlled by a DNA replication checkpoint. 相似文献
13.
Pexas Georgios Mackenzie Stephen G. Wallace Michael Kyriazakis Ilias 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2021,26(6):1236-1253
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - The environmental and economic impacts of livestock production systems are typically assessed using global characterisation factors and data,... 相似文献
14.
Ge Qian 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2014,19(7):1462-1467
Purpose
This paper aims to sort the literatures on life cycle assessments (LCA) by their respective importance through citation and co-citation analysis and to further discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these kinds of scientometric methods in the case of LCA research.Methods
CiteSpace II was used to generate document co-citation networks based on 3,824 articles retrieved from the ISI Web of Science database on this topic.Results
Table 1 provides the top 50 highest cited documents in the LCA field. Here, we use two indicators, i.e., citation frequency in citation analysis and betweenness centrality metric in co-citation analysis, to measure the importance of these LCA literatures.Conclusions
Citation and co-citation analysis are useful for environmental scientists and engineers to get a better understanding of the inner structure of LCA research. However, like all other research methods, this kind of analysis has some limitations. On the one hand, Scientometric studies and related software are very dependent on ISI Web of Science database, but considering the ISI Web of Science only began to track the LCA field fairly recently, the Scopus database would probably give a fuller picture. On the other hand, since the essence of scientometrics analysis is outsiders commenting insiders, so with only citation and co-citation analysis, to our understanding of the past, present, and future of LCA field, is insufficient. 相似文献15.
Vrasdonk Emke Palme Ulrika Lennartsson Tommy 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2019,24(9):1631-1642
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - In life cycle assessment (LCA) literature addressing land use impacts on biodiversity, several potential reference situations are proposed.... 相似文献
16.
Mpho Maepa Michael Oluwatosin Bodunrin Nicholas W. Burman Joel Croft Shaun Engelbrecht A. O. Ladenika O. S. MacGregor Kevin G. Harding 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2017,22(7):1159-1164
Purpose
Life cycle assessments (LCAs) are considered common quantitative environmental techniques to analyze the environmental impact of products and/or services throughout their entire life cycle. A few LCA studies have been conducted in West Africa. This study aimed to discuss the availability of LCA (and similar) studies in Nigeria, Ghana, and Ivory Coast.Methods
An online literature review of reports published between 2000 and 2016 was conducted using the following keywords: “life cycle assessment,” “carbon footprinting,” “water footprinting,” “environmental impact,” “Nigeria,” “Ghana” and “Ivory Coast.”Results and discussion
A total of 31 LCA and environmental studies in Nigeria, Ghana, and Ivory Coast were found; all but one were conducted after 2008. These were mainly academic and most were publicly available. The industries studied included energy sector, waste management, real estate, food sector, and others such as timber and gold. The minimal number of studies on LCAs and environmental impacts in these West African states could be because companies are failing to promote quantitative environmental studies or studies are kept internally for the use of other assessment techniques. Furthermore, it could be that academic research institutions lack cutting-edge research resources for LCA, environmental impact, carbon, and water footprinting studies.Conclusions
Further quantitative environmental studies should be conducted in Nigeria, Ghana, and Ivory Coast to increase the understanding of environmental impacts. In these countries, the existence of LCA studies (and by association the localized life cycle inventory (LCI) datasets) is crucial as more companies request this information to feed into background processes.17.
Ahmed Danish Ali van Bodegom Peter M. Tukker Arnold 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2019,24(3):485-500
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - In life cycle assessments (LCAs), the focus of modelling the impact of human-induced pressures on biodiversity has been mainly on taxonomic... 相似文献
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The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - 相似文献
19.
Christoph Koffler Klaus Rohde-Brandenburger 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2010,15(1):128-135
Background, aim, and scope
Lightweight design is a common means of reducing a passenger car's fuel consumption. In order to calculate the resulting fuel savings, one has to estimate the total energy that is needed to move a certain weight over a defined distance in a distinct way, and express this energy in liter of gasoline or diesel. This can be accomplished by the so-called fuel reduction value (FRV) and based on a standardized driving cycle, e.g., the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). The aim of this paper is to explain the theoretical background of the calculation of fuel savings in automotive lightweight life cycle assessments (LCAs) of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in greater detail than it has been done before, to describe the resulting factors and their different applications, and to point out some notable particularities that need to be taken into account when conducting this type of LCA study. 相似文献20.
Saade Marcella Ruschi Mendes Passer Alexander Mittermayr Florian 《The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment》2020,25(2):188-207
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - The carbon intensity that accompanies concrete manufacturing has been widely investigated. However, depending on the intended use,... 相似文献