Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and its impact on HIV-1 transmission in South Africa

Background

Mathematical modelers have given little attention to the question of how pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may impact on a generalized national HIV epidemic and its cost-effectiveness, in the context of control strategies such as condom use promotion and expanding ART programs.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We use an age- and gender-structured model of the generalized HIV epidemic in South Africa to investigate the potential impact of PrEP in averting new infections. The model utilizes age-structured mortality, fertility, partnership and condom use data to model the spread of HIV and the shift of peak prevalence to older age groups. The model shows that universal PrEP coverage would have to be impractically high to have a significant effect on incidence reduction while ART coverage expands. PrEP targeted to 15–35-year-old women would avert 10%–25% (resp. 13%–28%) of infections in this group and 5%–12% (resp. 7%–16%) of all infections in the period 2014–2025 if baseline incidence is 0.5% per year at 2025 (resp. 0.8% per year at 2025). The cost would be $12,500–$20,000 per infection averted, depending on the level of ART coverage and baseline incidence. An optimistic scenario of 30%–60% PrEP coverage, efficacy of at least 90%, no behavior change among PrEP users and ART coverage less than three times its 2010 levels is required to achieve this result. Targeting PrEP to 25–35-year-old women (at highest risk of infection) improves impact and cost-effectiveness marginally. Relatively low levels of condom substitution (e.g., 30%) do not nullify the efficacy of PrEP, but reduces cost-effectiveness by 35%–40%.

Conclusions/Significance

PrEP can avert as many as 30% of new infections in targeted age groups of women at highest risk of infection. The cost-effectiveness of PrEP relative to ART decreases rapidly as ART coverage increases beyond three times its coverage in 2010, after which the ART program would provide coverage to more than 65% of HIV₊ individuals. To have a high relative cost-effective impact on reducing infections in generalized epidemics, PrEP must utilize a window of opportunity until ART has been scaled up beyond this level.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) in Preventing HIV-1 Infections in Rural Zambia: A Modeling Study

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine effectively prevents new HIV infections. The optimal scenario for implementing PrEP where most infections are averted at the lowest cost is unknown. We determined the impact of different PrEP strategies on averting new infections, prevalence, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness in Macha, a rural setting in Zambia.

Methods

A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission was constructed using data from the Macha epidemic (antenatal prevalence 7.7%). Antiretroviral therapy is started at CD4<350 cells/mm³. We compared the number of infections averted, cost-effectiveness, and potential emergence of drug resistance of two ends of the prioritization spectrum: prioritizing PrEP to half of the most sexually active individuals (5–15% of the total population), versus randomly putting 40–60% of the total population on PrEP.

Results

Prioritizing PrEP to individuals with the highest sexual activity resulted in more infections averted than a non-prioritized strategy over ten years (31% and 23% reduction in new infections respectively), and also a lower HIV prevalence after ten years (5.7%, 6.4% respectively). The strategy was very cost-effective at $323 per quality adjusted life year gained and appeared to be both less costly and more effective than the non-prioritized strategy. The prevalence of drug resistance due to PrEP was as high as 11.6% when all assumed breakthrough infections resulted in resistance, and as low as 1.3% when 10% of breakthrough infections resulted in resistance in both our prioritized and non-prioritized scenarios.

Conclusions

Even in settings with low test rates and treatment retention, the use of PrEP can still be a useful strategy in averting infections. Our model has shown that PrEP is a cost-effective strategy for reducing HIV incidence, even when adherence is suboptimal and prioritization is imperfect.     

Analytic Review of Modeling Studies of ARV Based PrEP Interventions Reveals Strong Influence of Drug-Resistance Assumptions on the Population-Level Effectiveness

Background

Four clinical trials have shown that oral and topical pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) based on tenofovir may be effective in preventing HIV transmission. The expected reduction in HIV transmission and the projected prevalence of drug resistance due to PrEP use vary significantly across modeling studies as a result of the broad spectrum of assumptions employed. Our goal is to quantify the influence of drug resistance assumptions on the predicted population-level impact of PrEP.

Methods

All modeling studies which evaluate the impact of oral or topical PrEP are reviewed and key assumptions regarding mechanisms of generation and spread of drug-resistant HIV are identified. A dynamic model of the HIV epidemic is developed to assess and compare the impact of oral PrEP using resistance assumptions extracted from published studies. The benefits and risks associated with ten years of PrEP use are evaluated under identical epidemic, behavioral and intervention conditions in terms of cumulative fractions of new HIV infections prevented, resistance prevalence among those infected with HIV, and fractions of infections in which resistance is transmitted.

Results

Published models demonstrate enormous variability in resistance-generating assumptions and uncertainty in parameter values. Depending on which resistance parameterization is used, a resistance prevalence between 2% and 44% may be expected if 50% efficacious oral PrEP is used consistently by 50% of the population over ten years. We estimated that resistance may be responsible for up to a 10% reduction or up to a 30% contribution to the fraction of prevented infections predicted in different studies.

Conclusions

Resistance assumptions used in published studies have a strong influence on the projected impact of PrEP. Modelers and virologists should collaborate toward clarifying the set of resistance assumptions biologically relevant to the PrEP products which are already in use or soon to be added to the arsenal against HIV.     

HIV incidence, risk factors, and motivation for biomedical intervention among gay, bisexual men, and transgender persons in Northern Thailand

Background

HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender (TG) persons is high and increasing in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand.

Objectives

To describe demographic, socioeconomic, sexual behavior and interest in future HIV prevention trials among gay and bisexual MSM and TG presenting for HIV testing (VCT) and pre-screening for the iPrEx pre-exposure chemoprophylaxis trail.

Methods

In 2008–09, MSM/TG participants attending VCT were interviewed and tested for HIV and STI. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were done to assess associations with HIV infection.

Results

A total of 551 MSM clients (56.1% gay, 25.4% TG, and 18.5% bisexual (BS)) were enrolled. The mean age was 23.9 years. HIV prevalence among MSM overall was 12.9% (71/551); 16.5% among gay men, 9.3% among TG, and 6.9% among BS. Consistent use of condom was low, 33.3% in insertive anal sex and 31.9% in receptive anal sex. Interest in participation was high, 86.3% for PrEP, 69.7% for HIV vaccine trials, but 29.9% for circumcision. HIV was independently associated with being gay identified, aOR 2.8, p = 0.037 and with being aged 25–29, aOR 2.7, p = 0.027. Among repeat testers, HIV incidence was 8.2/100 PY, 95% CI, 3.7/100PY to 18.3/100PY.

Conclusion

HIV risks and rates varied by self-reported sexual orientation and gender identity. HIV was associated with sexual practices, age, and being gay-identified. These are populations are in need of novel prevention strategies and willing to participate in prevention research.     

Detoxification center-based sampling missed a subgroup of higher risk drug users, a case from Guangdong, China

Background

Injection drug use remains among the most important HIV transmission risk in China. Representativeness of drug users sampled from detoxification centers is questionable. A respondent driven sampling survey was conducted to compare the results with those from the detoxification center in the same city.

Methods

In 2008, two independent surveys were conducted in Dongguan, China, one for community-based drug users using respondent driven sampling and the other for drug users in a compulsory detoxification center as routine sentinel surveillance. Demographic and behavioral information were collected using the same structured questionnaire. Intravenous blood samples were collected to measure antibodies to HIV-1, and syphilis.

Results

Compared to those 400 drug users recruited from the detoxification center, the 303 community-based drug users had higher HIV prevalence (14.7% versus 4.0%, P = 0.04), lower syphilis prevalence (4.7% versus 10.8%, P = 0.07), higher proportion of injection drug use (83.9% versus 60.2%, P = 0.01) and syringe sharing (47.8% versus 36.3%, P = 0.10), more likely to be separated (12.4% versus 3.8%, P = 0.01) and being migrants from Guangxi province (31.4% versus 18.0%, P = 0.09), more engaging in commercial sex (64.4% versus 52.5%, P = 0.04). HIV prevalence and rate of syringe sharing were consistently higher among drug users from Guangxi.

Conclusions

Detoxification center-based sampling missed a subgroup with higher HIV prevalence and higher rate of injection drug use. While detoxification center-based sampled can be used to monitor the trend of HIV prevalence and risk behaviors over time, periodic community-based sampling is still necessary to avoid possible systematic error in detoxification center-based samples.     

Transmitted drug resistance in persons with acute/early HIV-1 in San Francisco, 2002-2009

Background

Transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance (TDR) is an ongoing public health problem, representing 10–20% of new HIV infections in many geographic areas. TDR usually arises from two main sources: individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) who are failing to achieve virologic suppression, and individuals who acquired TDR and transmit it while still ART-naïve. TDR rates can be impacted when novel antiretroviral medications are introduced that allow for greater virologic suppression of source patients. Although several new HIV medications were introduced starting in late 2007, including raltegravir, maraviroc, and etravirine, it is not known whether the prevalence of TDR was subsequently affected in 2008–2009.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We performed population sequence genotyping on individuals who were diagnosed with acute or early HIV (<6 months duration) and who enrolled in the Options Project, a prospective cohort, between 2002 and 2009. We used logistic regression to compare the odds of acquiring drug-resistant HIV before versus after the arrival of new ART (2005–2007 vs. 2008–2009). From 2003–2007, TDR rose from 7% to 24%. Prevalence of TDR was then 15% in 2008 and in 2009. While the odds of acquiring TDR were lower in 2008–2009 compared to 2005–2007, this was not statistically significant (odds ratio 0.65, 95% CI 0.31–1.38; p = 0.27).

Conclusions

Our study suggests that transmitted drug resistance rose from 2003–2007, but this upward trend did not continue in 2008 and 2009. Nevertheless, the TDR prevalence in 2008–2009 remained substantial, emphasizing that improved management strategies for drug-resistant HIV are needed if TDR is to be further reduced. Continued surveillance for TDR will be important in understanding the full impact of new antiretroviral medications.     

High prevalence of self-reported undiagnosed HIV despite high coverage of HIV testing: a cross-sectional population based sero-survey in South Africa

Objectives

To measure HIV prevalence and uptake of HIV counseling and testing (HCT) in a peri-urban South African community. To assess predictors for previous HIV testing and the association between the yield of previously undiagnosed HIV and time of last negative HIV test

Methods

A random sample of 10% of the adult population (≥15 years) were invited to attend a mobile HCT service. Study procedures included a questionnaire, HIV testing and CD4 counts. Predictors for previous testing were determined using a binominal model.

Results

1,144 (88.0%) of 1,300 randomly selected individuals participated in the study. 71.0% (68.3–73.6) had previously had an HIV test and 37.5% (34.6–40.5) had tested in the past 12 months. Men, migrants and older (>35 years) and younger (<20 years) individuals were less likely to have had a previous HIV test. Overall HIV prevalence was 22.7 (20.3–25.3) with peak prevalence of 41.8% (35.8–47.8) in women aged 25.1–35 years and 37.5% (26.7–48.3) in men aged 25.1–45 years. Prevalence of previously undiagnosed HIV was 10.3% (8.5–12.1) overall and 4.5% (2.3–6.6), 8.0% (CI 3.9–12.0) and 20.0% (13.2–26.8) in individuals who had their most recent HIV test within 1, 1–2 and more than 2 years prior to the survey.

Conclusion

The high burden of undiagnosed HIV in individuals who had recently tested underscores the importance of frequent repeat testing at least annually. The high prevalence of previously undiagnosed HIV in individuals reporting a negative test in the 12 months preceding the survey indicates a very high incidence. Innovative prevention strategies are needed.     

National prevalence and trends of HIV transmitted drug resistance in Mexico

Background

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) remains an important concern for the management of HIV infection, especially in countries that have recently scaled-up antiretroviral treatment (ART) access.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We designed a study to assess HIV diversity and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence and trends in Mexico. 1655 ART-naïve patients from 12 Mexican states were enrolled from 2005 to 2010. TDR was assessed from plasma HIV pol sequences using Stanford scores and the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. TDR prevalence fluctuations over back-projected dates of infection were tested. HIV subtype B was highly prevalent in Mexico (99.9%). TDR prevalence (Stanford score>15) in the country for the study period was 7.4% (95% CI, 6.2∶8.8) and 6.8% (95% CI, 5.7∶8.2) based on the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. NRTI TDR was the highest (4.2%), followed by NNRTI (2.5%) and PI (1.7%) TDR. Increasing trends for NNRTI (p = 0.0456) and PI (p = 0.0061) major TDR mutations were observed at the national level. Clustering of viruses containing minor TDR mutations was observed with some apparent transmission pairs and geographical effects.

Conclusions

TDR prevalence in Mexico remains at the intermediate level and is slightly lower than that observed in industrialized countries. Whether regional variations in TDR trends are associated with differences in antiretroviral drug usage/ART efficacy or with local features of viral evolution remains to be further addressed.     

Willingness to accept HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among Chinese men who have sex with men

Objective

We investigated the awareness and acceptability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men (MSM) and potential predicting factors.

Methods

This study was conducted among MSM in Beijing, China. Study participants, randomly selected from an MSM cohort, completed a structured questionnaire, and provided their blood samples to test for HIV infection and syphilis. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the factors associated with willingness to accept (WTA) PrEP. Factors independently associated with willingness to accept were identified by entering variables into stepwise logistic regression analysis.

Results

A total of 152 MSM completed the survey; 11.2% had ever heard of PrEP and 67.8% were willing to accept it. Univariate analysis showed that age, years of education, consistent condom use in the past 6 months, heterosexual behavior in the past 6 months, having ever heard of PrEP and the side effects of antiretroviral drugs, and worry about antiretroviral drugs cost were significantly associated with willingness to accept PrEP. In the multivariate logistic regression model, only consistent condom use in the past 6 months (odds ratio [OR]: 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13–0.70) and having ever heard of the side effects of antiretroviral drugs (OR: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.14–0.67) were independently associated with willingness to accept PrEP.

Conclusions

The awareness of PrEP in the MSM population was low. Sexual behavioral characteristics and knowledge about ART drugs may have effects on willingness to accept PrEP. Comprehensive prevention strategies should be recommended in the MSM community.     

Estimation of the prevalence of undiagnosed and diagnosed HIV in an urban emergency department

Objective

To estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV, the prevalence of diagnosed HIV, and proportion of HIV that is undiagnosed in populations with similar demographics as the Universal Screening for HIV in the Emergency Room (USHER) Trial and the Brigham and Women''s Hospital (BWH) Emergency Department (ED) in Boston, MA. We also sought to estimate these quantities within demographic and risk behavior subgroups.

Method

We used data from the USHER Trial, which was a randomized clinical trial of HIV screening conducted in the BWH ED. Since eligible participants were HIV-free at time of enrollment, we were able to calculate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV. We used data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MA/DPH) to estimate the prevalence of diagnosed HIV since the MA/DPH records the number of persons within MA who are HIV-positive. We calculated the proportion of HIV that is undiagnosed using these estimates of the prevalence of undiagnosed and diagnosed HIV. Estimates were stratified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, history of testing, and risk behaviors.

Results

The overall expected prevalence of diagnosed HIV in a population similar to those presenting to the BWH ED was 0.71% (95% CI: 0.63%, 0.78%). The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV was estimated at 0.22% (95% CI: 0.10%, 0.42%) and resultant overall prevalence was 0.93%. The proportion of HIV-infection that is undiagnosed in this ED-based setting was estimated to be 23.7% (95% CI: 11.6%, 34.9%) of total HIV-infections.

Conclusions

Despite different methodology, our estimate of the proportion of HIV that is undiagnosed in an ED-setting was similar to previous estimates based on national surveillance data. Universal routine testing programs in EDs should use these data to help plan their yield of HIV detection.     

Rates of anti-tuberculosis drug resistance in Kampala-Uganda are low and not associated with HIV infection

Background

Drug resistance among tuberculosis patients in sub-Saharan Africa is increasing, possibly due to association with HIV infection. We studied drug resistance and HIV infection in a representative sample of 533 smear-positive tuberculosis patients diagnosed in Kampala, Uganda.

Methods/Principal Findings

Among 473 new patients, multidrug resistance was found in 5 (1.1%, 95% CI 0.3–2.5) and resistance to any drug in 57 (12.1%, 9.3–15.3). Among 60 previously treated patients this was 7 (11.7%, 4.8–22.6) and 17 (28.3%; 17.5–41.4), respectively. Of 517 patients with HIV results, 165 (31.9%, 27.9–36.1) tested positive. Neither multidrug (adjusted odds ratio (OR^adj) 0.7; 95% CI 0.19–2.6) nor any resistance (OR^adj 0.7; 0.43–1.3) was associated with HIV status. Primary resistance to any drug was more common among patients who had worked in health care (OR^adj 3.5; 1.0–12.0).

Conclusion/Significance

Anti-tuberculosis drug resistance rates in Kampala are low and not associated with HIV infection, but may be associated with exposure during health care.     

Prevalence of transmitted drug resistance and impact of transmitted resistance on treatment success in the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort

Background

The aim of this study is to analyse the prevalence of transmitted drug resistance, TDR, and the impact of TDR on treatment success in the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort.

Methods

Genotypic resistance analysis was performed in treatment-naïve study patients whose sample was available 1,312/1,564 (83.9% October 2008). A genotypic resistance result was obtained for 1,276/1,312 (97.3%). The resistance associated mutations were identified according to the surveillance drug resistance mutations list recommended for drug-naïve patients. Treatment success was determined as viral suppression below 500 copies/ml.

Results

Prevalence of TDR was stable at a high level between 1996 and 2007 in the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Cohort (N = 158/1,276; 12.4%; CI_wilson 10.7–14.3; p _{for trend} = 0.25). NRTI resistance was predominant (7.5%) but decreased significantly over time (CI_Wilson: 6.2–9.1, p _{for trend} = 0.02). NNRTI resistance tended to increase over time (NNRTI: 3.5%; CI_Wilson: 2.6–4.6; p _{for trend}  = 0.07), whereas PI resistance remained stable (PI: 3.0%; CI_Wilson: 2.1–4.0; p _{for trend}  = 0.24). Resistance to all drug classes was frequently caused by singleton resistance mutations (NRTI 55.6%, PI 68.4%, NNRTI 99.1%). The majority of NRTI-resistant strains (79.8%) carried resistance-associated mutations selected by the thymidine analogues zidovudine and stavudine. Preferably 2NRTI/1PIr combinations were prescribed as first line regimen in patients with resistant HIV as well as in patients with susceptible strains (susceptible 45.3%; 173/382 vs. resistant 65.5%; 40/61). The majority of patients in both groups were treated successfully within the first year after ART-initiation (susceptible: 89.9%; 62/69; resistant: 7/9; 77.8%).

Conclusion

Overall prevalence of TDR remained stable at a high level but trends of resistance against drug classes differed over time. The significant decrease of NRTI-resistance in patients newly infected with HIV might be related to the introduction of novel antiretroviral drugs and a wider use of genotypic resistance analysis prior to treatment initiation.     

Transmission patterns of HIV and hepatitis C virus among networks of people who inject drugs

Background

The risk-related behaviours and practices associated with injection drug use remain a driver of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission throughout the world. Here we evaluated HIV and HCV transmission patterns in the context of social networks of injection drug users (IDU) recruited from a higher incidence region in order to better understand factors that contribute to ongoing transmission among IDU.

Methods

IDU recruited through a chain-referral method provided biological specimens for analysis. HIV and HCV positive specimens were sequenced and analyzed using phylogenetic methods (Neighbour-joining and Bayesian) and transmission patterns of HIV and HCV evaluated in the context of the recruitment networks.

Results

Among the 407 recruited IDU, HCV and HIV prevalence were 60.6% and 10.1%, respectively; 98% of HIV positive individuals were co-infected with HCV. Thirty-six percent of HCV sequences were associated with clusters, compared to 67% of HIV sequences. Four (16.7%) of the 24 HCV clusters contained membership separated by 2 or fewer recruitment cycles, compared to 10 (41.6%) derived from more than one recruitment component. Two (28.6%) of the 7 HIV clusters contained membership separated by 2 or fewer recruitment cycles while 6 (85.7%) were composed of inter component membership.

Conclusions

Few HIV and HCV transmissions coincided with the recruitment networks, suggesting that they occurred in a different social context or a context not captured by the recruitment network. However, among the complete cohort, a higher degree of HIV clustering indicates many are recent infections originating from within current social networks, whereas a larger proportion of HCV infections may have occurred earlier in injecting history and in the context of a different social environment.     

Consistently low prevalence of syphilis among female sex workers in Jinan, China: findings from two consecutive respondent driven sampling surveys

Background

Routine surveillance using convenient sampling found low prevalence of HIV and syphilis among female sex workers in China. Two consecutive surveys using respondent driven sampling were conducted in 2008 and 2009 to examine the prevalence of HIV and syphilis among female sex workers in Jinan, China.

Methods

A face-to-face interview was conducted to collect demographic, behavioral and service utilization information using a structured questionnaire. Blood samples were drawn for serological tests of HIV-1 antibody and syphilis antibody. Respondent Driven Sampling Analysis Tool was used to generate population level estimates.

Results

In 2008 and in 2009, 363 and 432 subjects were recruited and surveyed respectively. Prevalence of syphilis was 2.8% in 2008 and 2.2% in 2009, while no HIV case was found in both years. Results are comparable to those from routine sentinel surveillance system in the city. Only 60.8% subjects in 2008 and 48.3% in 2009 reported a consistent condom use with clients during the past month. Over 50% subjects had not been covered by any HIV-related services in the past year, with only 15.6% subjects in 2008 and 13.1% in 2009 ever tested for HIV.

Conclusions

Despite the low prevalence of syphilis and HIV, risk behaviors are common. Targeted interventions to promote the safe sex and utilization of existing intervention services are still needed to keep the epidemic from growing.     

Epidemic levels of drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR and XDR-TB) in a high HIV prevalence setting in Khayelitsha, South Africa

Background

Although multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is emerging as a significant threat to tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence countries such as South Africa, limited data is available on the burden of drug resistant tuberculosis and any association with HIV in such settings. We conducted a community-based representative survey to assess the MDR-TB burden in Khayelitsha, an urban township in South Africa with high HIV and TB prevalence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among adult clinic attendees suspected for pulmonary tuberculosis in two large primary care clinics, together constituting 50% of the tuberculosis burden in Khayelitsha. Drug susceptibility testing (DST) for isoniazid and rifampicin was conducted using a line probe assay on positive sputum cultures, and with culture-based DST for first and second-line drugs. Between May and November 2008, culture positive pulmonary tuberculosis was diagnosed in 271 new and 264 previously treated tuberculosis suspects (sample enriched with previously treated cases). Among those with known HIV status, 55% and 71% were HIV infected respectively. MDR-TB was diagnosed in 3.3% and 7.7% of new and previously treated cases. These figures equate to an estimated case notification rate for MDR-TB of 51/100,000/year, with new cases constituting 55% of the estimated MDR-TB burden. HIV infection was not significantly associated with rifampicin resistance in multivariate analyses.

Conclusions/Significance

There is an extremely high burden of MDR-TB in this setting, most likely representing ongoing transmission. These data highlight the need to diagnose drug resistance among all TB cases, and for innovative models of case detection and treatment for MDR-TB, in order to interrupt transmission and control this emerging epidemic.     

Comparison of HIV prevalence estimates for Zimbabwe from antenatal clinic surveillance (2006) and the 2005-06 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey

Objective

To assess whether HIV surveillance data from pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics in Zimbabwe represent infection levels in the general population.

Methods

HIV prevalence estimates from ANC surveillance sites in 2006 were compared with estimates from the corresponding Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 2005–06 (ZDHS) clusters using geographic information systems.

Results

The ANC HIV prevalence estimate (17.9%, 95% CI 17.0%–18.8%) was similar to the ZDHS estimates for all men and women aged 15–49 years (18.1%, 16.9%–18.8%), for pregnant women (17.5%, 13.9%–21.9%), and for ANC attendees living within 30 km of ANC surveillance sites (19.9%, 17.1%–22.8%). However, the ANC surveillance estimate (17.9%) was lower than the ZDHS estimates for all women (21.1%, 19.7%–22.6%) and for women living within 30 km catchment areas of ANC surveillance sites (20.9%, 19.4%–22.3%). HIV prevalence in ANC sites classified as urban and rural was significantly lower than in sites classified as “other”.

Conclusions

Periodic population surveys can be used to validate ANC surveillance estimates. In Zimbabwe, ANC surveillance provides reliable estimates of HIV prevalence among men and women aged 15–49 years in the general population. Three classifications of ANC sites (rural/urban/other) should be used when generating national HIV estimates.     

Investigation outcomes of tuberculosis suspects in the health centers of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background

Little is known about the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV among TB suspects in primary health care units in Ethiopia.

Methods

In the period of February to March, 2009, a cross sectional survey was done in 27 health centers of Addis Ababa to assess the prevalence of TB and HIV among TB suspects who have > = 2 weeks symptoms of TB such as cough, fever and weight loss. Diagnosis of TB and HIV was based on the national guidelines. Information concerning socio-demographic variables and knowledge of the respondents about TB was collected using pretested questionnaire.

Results

Of the 545 TB suspects, 506 (92.7%) of them participated in the study. The prevalence of both pulmonary and extra pulmonary TB was 46.0% (233/506). The smear positivity rate among pulmonary TB suspect was 21.3%. Of the TB suspects, 298 (58.9%) of them were tested for HIV and 27.2% (81/298) were HIV seropositive. Fifty percent of the HIV positive TB suspects had TB. TB suspects who had a contact history with a TB patient in the family were 9 times more likely to have TB than those who did not have a contact history, [OR = 9.1, (95%CI:4.0, 20.5)]. Individuals who had poor [OR = 5.2, (95%CI: 2.3, 11.2)] and fair knowledge [OR = 3.7, (95%CI: 1.3, 10.4)] about TB were more likely to have TB than individuals who had good knowledge.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the prevalence of TB among TB suspects with duration of 2 or more weeks is high. Fifty percent of the HIV positive TB suspects had TB. Case finding among TB suspects with duration of 2 or more weeks should be intensified particularly among those who have a contact history with a TB patient.     

Pre-vaccination nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage in a Nigerian population: epidemiology and population biology

Background

Introduction of pneumococcal vaccines in Nigeria is a priority as part of the Accelerated Vaccine Introduction Initiative (AVI) of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI). However, country data on the burden of pneumococcal disease (IPD) is limited and coverage by available conjugate vaccines is unknown. This study was carried out to describe the pre vaccination epidemiology and population biology of pneumococcal carriage in Nigeria.

Methods

This was a cross sectional survey. Nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS) were obtained from a population sample in 14 contiguous peri-urban Nigerian communities. Data on demographic characteristics and risk factor for carriage were obtained from all study participants. Pneumococci isolated from NPS were characterised by serotyping, antimicrobial susceptibility and Multi Locus Sequencing Typing (MLST).

Results

The prevalence of pneumococcal carriage was 52.5%. Carriage was higher in children compared to adults (67.4% vs. 26%), highest (≈90%) in infants aged <9 months and reduced significantly with increasing age (P<0.001). Serotypes 19F (18.6%) and 6A (14.4%) were most predominant. Potential vaccine coverage was 43.8%, 45.0% and 62% for PCV-7, PCV-10 and PCV-13 respectively. There were 16 novel alleles, 72 different sequence types (STs) from the isolates and 3 Sequence Types (280, 310 and 5543) were associated with isolates of more than one serotype indicative of serotype switching. Antimicrobial resistance was high for cotrimoxazole (93%) and tetracycline (84%), a third of isolates had intermediate resistance to penicillin. Young age was the only risk factor significantly associated with carriage.

Conclusions

Pneumococcal carriage and serotype diversity is highly prevalent in Nigeria especially in infants. Based on the coverage of serotypes in this study, PCV-13 is the obvious choice to reduce disease burden and prevalence of drug resistant pneumococci. However, its use will require careful monitoring. Our findings provide sound baseline data for impact assessment following vaccine introduction in Nigeria.     

Safety and adherence to intermittent pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-1 in African men who have sex with men and female sex workers

Background

Little is known about safety of and adherence to intermittent HIV PrEP regimens, which may be more feasible than daily dosing in some settings. We present safety and adherence data from the first trial of an intermittent PrEP regimen among Kenyan men who have sex with men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSW).

Methods/Principal Findings

MSM and FSW were randomized to daily oral FTC/TDF or placebo, or intermittent (Monday, Friday and within 2 hours after sex, not to exceed one dose per day) oral FTC/TDF or placebo in a 2∶1∶2∶1 ratio; volunteers were followed monthly for 4 months. Adherence was assessed with the medication event monitoring system (MEMS). Sexual activity data were collected via daily text message (SMS) queries and timeline followback interviews with a one-month recall period. Sixty-seven men and 5 women were randomized into the study. Safety was similar among all groups. Median MEMS adherence rates were 83% [IQR: 63–92] for daily dosing and 55% [IQR:28–78] for fixed intermittent dosing (p = 0.003), while adherence to any post-coital doses was 26% [IQR:14–50]. SMS response rates were low, which may have impaired measurement of post-coital dosing adherence. Acceptability of PrEP was high, regardless of dosing regimen.

Conclusions/Significance

Adherence to intermittent dosing regimens, fixed doses, and in particular coitally-dependent doses, may be more difficult than adherence to daily dosing. However, intermittent dosing may still be appropriate for PrEP if intracellular drug levels, which correlate with prevention of HIV acquisition, can be attained with less than daily dosing and if barriers to adherence can be addressed. Additional drug level data, qualitative data on adherence barriers, and better methods to measure sexual activity are necessary to determine whether adherence to post-coital PrEP could be comparable to more standard regimens.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00971230","term_id":"NCT00971230"}}NCT00971230