The Fraction of Cancer Attributable to Ways of Life,Infections, Occupation,and Environmental Agents in Brazil in 2020

Many human cancers develop as a result of exposure to risk factors related to the environment and ways of life. The aim of this study was to estimate attributable fractions of 25 types of cancers resulting from exposure to modifiable risk factors in Brazil. The prevalence of exposure to selected risk factors among adults was obtained from population-based surveys conducted from 2000 to 2008. Risk estimates were based on data drawn from meta-analyses or large, high quality studies. Population-attributable fractions (PAF) for a combination of risk factors, as well as the number of preventable deaths and cancer cases, were calculated for 2020. The known preventable risk factors studied will account for 34% of cancer cases among men and 35% among women in 2020, and for 46% and 39% deaths, respectively. The highest attributable fractions were estimated for tobacco smoking, infections, low consumption of fruits and vegetables, excess weight, reproductive factors, and physical inactivity. This is the first study to systematically estimate the fraction of cancer attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in Brazil. Strategies for primary prevention of tobacco smoking and control of infection and the promotion of a healthy diet and physical activity should be the main priorities in policies for cancer prevention in the country.     

Attributable causes of esophageal cancer incidence and mortality in china

Background

To estimate the contribution of tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake to esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in China.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We calculated the proportion of esophageal cancer attributable to four known modifiable risk factors [population attributable fraction (PAF)]. Exposure data was taken from meta-analyses and large-scale national surveys of representative samples of the Chinese population. Data on relative risks were also from meta-analyses and large-scale prospective studies. Esophageal cancer mortality and incidence came from the 3^rd national death cause survey and population-based cancer registries in China. We estimated that 87,065 esophageal cancer deaths (men 67,686; women: 19,379) and 108,206 cases (men: 83,968, women: 24,238) were attributable to tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake in China in 2005. About 17.9% of esophageal cancer deaths among men and 1.9% among women were attributable to tobacco smoking. About 15.2% of esophageal cancer deaths in men and 1.3% in women were caused by alcohol drinking. Low vegetable intake was responsible for 4.3% esophageal cancer deaths in men and 4.1% in women. The fraction of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to low fruit intake was 27.1% in men and 28.0% in women. Overall, 46% of esophageal cancers (51% in men and 33% in women) were attributable to these four modifiable risk factors.

Conclusions/Significance

Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake were responsible for 46% of esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in China in 2005. These findings provide useful data for developing guidelines for esophageal cancer prevention and control in China.     

Drinking,smoking, and illicit drug use among 15 and 16 year olds in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE: To examine patterns of self reported drinking, smoking, and illicit drug use among a representative United Kingdom sample of people born in 1979. DESIGN: Cross sectional, single phase survey based on a stratified cluster sample of 70 United Kingdom secondary schools during March and April 1995. Pupils completed a 406 item standardised questionnaire under examination conditions. SETTING: United Kingdom state and private secondary schools. SUBJECTS: 7722 pupils aged 15 and 16. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Reported use of alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drugs. RESULTS: Almost all the pupils had drunk alcohol, 36% (2772/7689) had smoked cigarettes in the past 30 days, and 42.3% (3264/7722) had at some time used illicit drugs, mainly cannabis. 43% (1546/3546) of boys and 38% (1529/4009) of girls had tried cannabis. Higher levels of smoking were associated with poorer school performance (20.4% (783/3840) with average performance v 44.1% (214/486) with below average performance, F = 79.06, P < 0.01). Levels of drug use in 15 and 16 year olds in 1995 were higher in Scotland than in England, Wales, or Northern Ireland. CONCLUSIONS: Drug experimentation was high among 15 and 16 year olds, and use of cannabis was particularly high among smokers. Cigarette smoking was more common among girls than boys.     

Fatal opioid overdoses during and shortly after hospital admissions in England: A case-crossover study

BackgroundHospital patients who use illicit opioids such as heroin may use drugs during an admission or leave the hospital in order to use drugs. There have been reports of patients found dead from drug poisoning on the hospital premises or shortly after leaving the hospital. This study examines whether hospital admission and discharge are associated with increased risk of opioid-related death.Methods and findingsWe conducted a case-crossover study of opioid-related deaths in England. Our study included 13,609 deaths between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019 among individuals aged 18 to 64. For each death, we sampled 5 control days from the period 730 to 28 days before death. We used data from the national Hospital Episode Statistics database to determine the time proximity of deaths and control days to hospital admissions. We estimated the association between hospital admission and opioid-related death using conditional logistic regression, with a reference category of time neither admitted to the hospital nor within 14 days of discharge. A total of 236/13,609 deaths (1.7%) occurred following drug use while admitted to the hospital. The risk during hospital admissions was similar or lower than periods neither admitted to the hospital nor recently discharged, with odds ratios 1.03 (95% CI 0.87 to 1.21; p = 0.75) for the first 14 days of an admission and 0.41 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.56; p < 0.001) for days 15 onwards. 1,088/13,609 deaths (8.0%) occurred in the 14 days after discharge. The risk of opioid-related death increased in this period, with odds ratios of 4.39 (95% CI 3.75 to 5.14; p < 0.001) on days 1 to 2 after discharge and 2.09 (95% CI 1.92 to 2.28; p < 0.001) on days 3 to 14. 11,629/13,609 deaths (85.5%) did not occur close to a hospital admission, and the remaining 656/13,609 deaths (4.8%) occurred in hospital following admission due to drug poisoning. Risk was greater for patients discharged from psychiatric admissions, those who left the hospital against medical advice, and those leaving the hospital after admissions of 7 days or more. The main limitation of the method is that it does not control for time-varying health or drug use within individuals; therefore, hospital admissions coinciding with high-risk periods may in part explain the results.ConclusionsDischarge from the hospital is associated with an acute increase in the risk of opioid-related death, and 1 in 14 opioid-related deaths in England happens in the 2 weeks after the hospital discharge. This supports interventions that prevent early discharge and improve linkage with community drug treatment and harm reduction services.

In a case-crossover study, Dan Lewer and coauthors investigate factors associated with fatal opioid overdoses during and shortly after hospital admissions in England.     

Estimating Influenza Deaths in Canada, 1992–2009

Background

Poisson regression modelling has been widely used to estimate the disease burden attributable to influenza, though not without concerns that some of the excess burden could be due to other causes. This study aims to provide annual estimates of the mortality and hospitalization burden attributable to both seasonal influenza and the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza for Canada, and to discuss issues related to the reliability of these estimates.

Methods

Weekly time-series for all-cause mortality and regression models were used to estimate the number of deaths in Canada attributable to influenza from September 1992 to December 2009. To assess their robustness, the annual estimates derived from different parameterizations of the regression model for all-cause mortality were compared. In addition, the association between the annual estimates for mortality and hospitalization by age group, underlying cause of death or primary reason for admission and discharge status is discussed.

Results

The crude influenza-attributed mortality rate based on all-cause mortality and averaged over 17 influenza seasons prior to the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was 11.3 (95%CI, 10.5 - 12.1) deaths per 100 000 population per year, or an average of 3,500 (95%CI, 3,200 - 3,700) deaths per year attributable to seasonal influenza. The estimated annual rates ranged from undetectable at the ecological level to more than 6000 deaths per year over the three A/Sydney seasons. In comparison, we attributed an estimated 740 deaths (95%CI, 350–1500) to A(H1N1)pdm09. Annual estimates from different model parameterizations were strongly correlated, as were estimates for mortality and morbidity; the higher A(H1N1)pdm09 burden in younger age groups was the most notable exception.

Interpretation

With the exception of some of the Serfling models, differences in the ecological estimates of the disease burden attributable to influenza were small in comparison to the variation in disease burden from one season to another.     

Injuries and deaths associated with off-road recreational vehicles among children in Manitoba.

Injuries and deaths associated with off-road recreational vehicles are of increasing concern in North America. We reviewed all hospital admissions and deaths attributed to these vehicles in Manitoba from April 1979 to April 1985 among children 16 years of age or younger. Of the 693 hospital admissions and deaths 480 were associated with motorbikes, snowmobiles or all-terrain vehicles (ATVs). The incidence of injuries resulting from snowmobile and dirtbike accidents remained stable over the study period; however, there was an almost exponential increase in the number of admissions because of ATV-related injuries. There were 21 deaths during the study period. Preventive measures through legislation are necessary to reduce the numbers of injuries and deaths; these include mandatory registration, licensing and enhanced safety regulations.     

Estimation of cancer mortality attributable to excess body weight during 2006–2015 in China

BackgroundCancer is one of the most common causes of death. Excess body weight (EBW), a risk factor for cancer, is highly prevalent in China. We aimed to estimate the number and proportion of cancer deaths attributed to EBW and their changes during 2006–2015 in China.MethodsPopulation attributable fractions in 2006, 2010, and 2015 were calculated with 1) prevalence of overweight/obesity, exacted from the China Health and Nutrition Survey conducted in 8–9 provinces of China in 1997, 2000, and 2004; 2) relative risks for EBW and site-specific cancers, obtained from previous studies; 3) data on cancer deaths in 2006, 2010, and 2015, originated from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report.ResultsIn 2015, EBW contributed to 45,918 (3.1% of all) cancer deaths in China, with 24,978 (2.6%) in men and 20,940 (3.8%) in women. By region, the fraction of cancer deaths attributable to EBW ranged from 1.6% (West) to 4.1% (Northeast). Cancers of liver, stomach, and colorectum were the main EBW-attributable cancers. The fractions of cancer deaths attributable to EBW were 2.4% (95%CI: 0.8–4.2%) in 2006, 2.9% (95%CI: 1.0–5.2%) in 2010, and 3.1% (95%CI: 1.0–5.4%) in 2015, respectively, and increased for all gender, region, and cancer site during 2006–2015.ConclusionsThe proportion of cancer deaths attributed to EBW was higher in women and Northeastern China, with an upward trend in the recent decade. A combination of comprehensive and individualized measures is necessary to reduce the prevalence of EBW and related cancer burden in China.     

Deaths in Canada from lung cancer due to involuntary smoking.

Recently published evidence indicates that involuntary smoking causes an increased risk of lung cancer among nonsmokers. Information was compiled on the proportion of people who had never smoked among victims of lung cancer, the risk of lung cancer for nonsmokers married to smokers and the prevalence of such exposure. On the basis of these data we estimate that 50 to 60 of the deaths from lung cancer in Canada in 1985 among people who had never smoked were caused by spousal smoking; about 90% occurred in women. The total number of deaths from lung cancer attributable to exposure to tobacco smoke from spouses and other sources (mainly the workplace) was derived by applying estimated age- and sex-specific rates of death from lung cancer attributable to such exposure to the population of Canadians who have never smoked; about 330 deaths from lung cancer annually are attributable to such exposure.     

The return on investment of a Medicaid tobacco cessation program in Massachusetts

Background and Objective

A high proportion of low-income people insured by the Medicaid program smoke. Earlier research concerning a comprehensive tobacco cessation program implemented by the state of Massachusetts indicated that it was successful in reducing smoking prevalence and those who received tobacco cessation benefits had lower rates of in-patient admissions for cardiovascular conditions, including acute myocardial infarction, coronary atherosclerosis and non-specific chest pain. This study estimates the costs of the tobacco cessation benefit and the short-term Medicaid savings attributable to the aversion of inpatient hospitalization for cardiovascular conditions.

Methods

A cost-benefit analysis approach was used to estimate the program''s return on investment. Administrative data were used to compute annual cost per participant. Data from the 2002–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Surveys were used to estimate the costs of hospital inpatient admissions by Medicaid smokers. These were combined with earlier estimates of the rate of reduction in cardiovascular hospital admissions attributable to the tobacco cessation program to calculate the return on investment.

Findings

Administrative data indicated that program costs including pharmacotherapy, counseling and outreach costs about $183 per program participant (2010 $). We estimated inpatient savings per participant of $571 (range $549 to $583). Every $1 in program costs was associated with $3.12 (range $3.00 to $3.25) in medical savings, for a $2.12 (range $2.00 to $2.25) return on investment to the Medicaid program for every dollar spent.

Conclusions

These results suggest that an investment in comprehensive tobacco cessation services may result in substantial savings for Medicaid programs. Further federal and state policy actions to promote and cover comprehensive tobacco cessation services in Medicaid may be a cost-effective approach to improve health outcomes for low-income populations.     

Quantitative health impact of indoor radon in France

Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Since the previous quantitative risk assessment of indoor radon conducted in France, input data have changed such as, estimates of indoor radon concentrations, lung cancer rates and the prevalence of tobacco consumption. The aim of this work was to update the risk assessment of lung cancer mortality attributable to indoor radon in France using recent risk models and data, improving the consideration of smoking, and providing results at a fine geographical scale. The data used were population data (2012), vital statistics on death from lung cancer (2008–2012), domestic radon exposure from a recent database that combines measurement results of indoor radon concentration and the geogenic radon potential map for France (2015), and smoking prevalence (2010). The risk model used was derived from a European epidemiological study, considering that lung cancer risk increased by 16% per 100 becquerels per cubic meter (Bq/m³) indoor radon concentration. The estimated number of lung cancer deaths attributable to indoor radon exposure is about 3000 (1000; 5000), which corresponds to about 10% of all lung cancer deaths each year in France. About 33% of lung cancer deaths attributable to radon are due to exposure levels above 100 Bq/m³. Considering the combined effect of tobacco and radon, the study shows that 75% of estimated radon-attributable lung cancer deaths occur among current smokers, 20% among ex-smokers and 5% among never-smokers. It is concluded that the results of this study, which are based on precise estimates of indoor radon concentrations at finest geographical scale, can serve as a basis for defining French policy against radon risk.     

Lung cancer and indoor radon exposure in the north of Portugal--an ecological study

BackgroundIndoor radon exposure is a well documented environmental factor as a leading cause of lung cancer. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the risk of lung cancer and estimate the number of deaths due to indoor radon exposure in the north of Portugal, between 1995 and 2004. Methods: The sixth Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Committee (BEIR VI) preferred models were applied to estimate the risk of developing lung cancer induced by indoor radon exposure, by age and level of exposure, and calculated the number of lung cancer deaths attributable to this exposure. Lung cancer mortality data were granted by the North Regional Health Administration and indoor radon concentrations resulted from a national survey conducted by the Portuguese Environmental Agency. The smoking habit was accounted with two methods. A submultiplicative interaction between smoking and indoor radon exposure was considered. Results: Depending on the model applied and the method used to account for the smoking habit, the estimated number of lung cancer deaths attributed to indoor radon exposure, in northern Portugal, ranges from 1565 to 2406, for the period between 1995 and 2004. This indicates that of the 8514 lung cancer deaths observed, from 18 to 28% could be associated with indoor radon exposure.ConclusionsThis was the first study realized in Portugal on the impact of indoor radon exposure in lung cancer mortality. The application of the BEIR VI models led to a high number of lung cancer deaths due to indoor radon exposure.     

Epidemiology and prevention of smoking in Tunisia: current situation and perspectives

This paper describes the trends in tobacco sales and smoking prevalence in the Tunisian population, estimates the consequences of smoking on mortality of this population, and discusses anti-tobacco actions: educational actions, legislative measures and price increases. Sales Data were collected from the Tunisia tobacco company. Smoking prevalence data from surveys, conducted by several institutes, and numbers of deaths by causes have been estimated from WHO for the year 1998. Tobacco sales increased from 4.96 g per adult per day in 1981, to 6.3 g, in 1993, then decreased widely. The proportion of smokers was 30% in 1996. 55% among men versus 5.6% among women. Among 17 to 24 years old young adults, the proportion of smokers was 29.2% in 1994 (50% among men versus 3.9%, among women). Mortality attributable to tobacco in Tunisia has been estimated to 6430 deaths in 1997 (5580 among men versus 850 among women). These deaths represent 22% of the total male deaths and 4% of the female ones. Anti-tobacco measures have been reinforced by the enactment of anti-tobacco law. Proportion of young smokers remaining elevated, it is expected that consequences of the tobacco addiction in Tunisia, in term of mortality, will be even heavier in the next two decades, if efficient anti-tobacco actions are not implemented.     

Increasing incidence of aortic aneurysms in England and Wales.

The numbers of patients being admitted to hospital with aortic aneurysms have increased recently. A study was carried out to try to find out whether this was a true increase in incidence or whether it could be attributable to more accurate diagnosis and better surgical techniques. From analyses of routine statistics it was found that from 1950 to 1984 age standardised mortality rose 20-fold in men to 47.1 per 100,000 population and 11-fold in women to 22.2 per 100,000 and that this was mainly due to more deaths from abdominal aneurysms. Hospital admissions of men with abdominal aneurysms were found to have increased steadily from 1968 to 1983, but the increase for women admitted did not begin until 1978. An increase in both emergency and elective admissions and only a marginal fall in deaths in hospital (from 45% to 39%) suggest that admissions for abdominal aneurysms increased across a wide range of severity of disease. It is concluded for the following reasons that the true incidence of aortic aneurysms, particularly abdominal aneurysms, has been increasing in England and Wales: the trends are not wholly compatible with advances in diagnosis and surgery, there are inconsistencies by age and sex, and increases have occurred in the number of complicated as well as uncomplicated cases.     

Cancer patterns in Canada.

Data from a cross-sectional survey of the health of Ontario children carried out in 1983 were used to provide estimates of the prevalence, patterns and sociodemographic correlates of the use of tobacco, alcohol and illicit drugs (substance use) among adolescents aged 12 to 16 years. Ninety-one percent of selected households participated. The prevalence rates of all categories of substance use, except use of inhalants, increased with increasing age. Among children aged 14 to 16 years the rates for girls were higher than those for boys for all categories of substance use except use of other, nondefined drugs. The prevalence rates of substance use tended to be higher in small urban areas except for use of marijuana (more prevalent in large urban areas) and use of inhalants (more prevalent in rural areas). The strongest evidence of clustering of substance use within families was found for smoking. Children who used less prevalent drugs (e.g., "hard" drugs) also tended to use the more prevalent ones (e.g., marijuana, tobacco and alcohol). Associations between substance use and low socioeconomic status suggested a positive relation with smoking and a negative relation with use of alcohol. The findings highlight the need for preventive programs aimed at specific subgroups in the adolescent population.     

Do physicians assess lifestyle health risks during general medical examinations? A survey of general practitioners and obstetrician-gynecologists in Quebec

BACKGROUND: In Canada several guidelines have been published for the screening of lifestyle health risks during general medical examinations. The authors sought to examine the extent to which such screening practices have been integrated into medical practice, to measure physicians'' perceived level of difficulty in assessing these risks and to document physicians'' evaluation of their formal medical training in lifestyle risk assessment. METHODS: An anonymous mail survey was conducted in 1995 in Quebec with a stratified random sample of 1086 general practitioners (GPs) and with all 241 obstetrician-gynecologists (Ob-Gyns). The authors evaluated the proportion of physicians who reported routine assessment (with 90% or more of their patients) of substance use, family violence and sexual history during general medical examinations of adult and adolescent patients; the proportion of those who find inquiring about these issues difficult; and the proportion of those who evaluated their medical training in lifestyle risk assessment as adequate or excellent. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 72.6%. Among adult patients, 82.2% of the GPs reported routinely assessing tobacco use, 67.2% alcohol consumption, 34.2% illicit drug use and 3.2% family violence; the corresponding proportions for assessment among adolescent patients were 77.1%, 61.8%, 52.9% and 5.6%. Comparatively fewer Ob-Gyns reported routinely assessing these issues (56.1%, 28.6%, 20.4% and 1.3% respectively among adults and 62.7%, 35.2%, 26.8% and 2.8% respectively among adolescents). In the area of sexual history, condom use was routinely assessed by more Ob-Gyns than GPs (47.0% v. 28.2%); however, the proportion of Ob-Gyns and GPs was equally low for assessing number of partners (24.8% and 23.1%), sexual orientation (18.8% and 16.9%) and STD risk (26.2% and 21.2%). The vast majority of GPs and Ob-Gyns reported finding it difficult to assess family violence (86.5% and 93.0%) and sexual abuse (92.7% and 92.4% respectively). Over 80% of the physicians felt that they had had adequate or excellent medical training in assessing risk behaviours for heart disease and STD risk. The proportion who felt this way about their training in screening for illicit drug use, family violence and sexual abuse ranged between 12.7% and 31.6%. INTERPRETATION: Although morbidity and mortality associated with smoking, alcohol consumption, illicit drug use, unsafe sexual practices, family violence and sexual abuse have been well documented, routine screening for these risk factors during general medical examinations has yet to be integrated into medical practice.     

The cost of premature death from cancer attributable to alcohol: Productivity losses in Europe in 2018

BackgroundMore than 1.9 million people die from cancer each year in Europe. Alcohol use is a major modifiable risk factor for cancer and poses an economic burden on society. We estimated the cost of productivity lost due to premature death (under 65 years of age) from alcohol-attributable cancer in the European Union (EU) plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018.MethodsWe estimated cancer deaths attributable to alcohol using a Levin-based population attributable fractions method and cancer deaths in 2018 from the Global Cancer Observatory. Lost productivity was estimated for all alcohol-attributable cancer deaths by sex, cancer site, and country. Productivity losses were valued using the human capital approach.ResultsAn estimated 23,300 cancer deaths among people aged less than 65 in the EU plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the UK in 2018 were attributable to alcohol (18,200 males, 5100 females). This equated to €4.58 billion in total productivity losses in the region and 0.027 % of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The average cost per alcohol-attributable cancer death was €196,000. Productivity lost to alcohol-attributable cancer per capita was highest in Western Europe. Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Portugal had the highest rate of premature mortality from alcohol-attributable cancer and the highest productivity lost as a share of national GDP.ConclusionOur study provides estimates of lost productivity from alcohol-attributable cancer death in Europe. Cost-effective strategies to prevent alcohol-attributable cancer deaths could result in economic benefits for society and must be prioritised.     

Sex differences in the proportion of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma cases attributable to tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption

Objective: Alcohol and tobacco are the two major established environmental factors associated with squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus (ESCC). However, the prevalence of these exposures differs substantially between men and women. Moreover, the prevalence of smoking has declined in recent years, whereas per capita consumption of alcohol has remained steady in both sexes. Quantifying the burden of ESCC attributable to these causal factors is necessary to inform potential preventive strategies. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of ESCC due to smoking and alcohol, using data from an Australian population based case–control study (305 ESCC cases, 1554 controls). Results: Estimated PAF for ESCC were 49% (95% CI: 38–60) and 32% (95% CI: 25–40) due to smoking and heavy alcohol consumption respectively. More than 75% of the ESCC burden in men could be attributed to smokers with heavy alcohol consumption. The highest burden was among ≥30 pack years smokers who also consumed alcohol heavily (>17 drinks/week); this differed significantly between men (PAF 36%, 95% CI 29–44) and women (PAF 5%, 95% CI 2–10). Among women only, low intakes of fruit and vegetables accounted for about 9% of the ESCC burden. Conclusion: The burden of ESCC attributable to smoking combined with heavy alcohol consumption is remarkably high in men. In women, the burden of ESCC due to these factors is lower, and poor nutrition may also play a role.     

Tobacco Stained Fingers and Its Association with Death and Hospital Admission: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Among smokers, the presence of tobacco stains on fingers has recently been associated with a high prevalence of tobacco related conditions and alcohol abuse.

Objective

we aimed to explore tobacco stains as a marker of death and hospital readmission.

Method

Seventy-three smokers presenting tobacco-tar staining on their fingers and 70 control smokers were followed during a median of 5.5 years in a retrospective cohort study. We used the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the log-rank test to compare mortality and hospital readmission rates among smokers with and smokers without tobacco stains. Multivariable Cox models were used to adjust for confounding factors: age, gender, pack-year unit smoked, cancer, harmful alcohol use and diabetes. The number of hospital admissions was compared through a negative binomial regression and adjusted for the follow-up time, diabetes, and alcohol use.

Results

Forty-three patients with tobacco-stained fingers died compared to 26 control smokers (HR 1.6; 95%CI: 1.0 to 2.7; p 0.048). The association was not statistically significant after adjustment. Patients with tobacco-stained fingers needed a readmission earlier than smokers without stains (HR 2.1; 95%CI: 1.4 to 3.1; p<0.001), and more often (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.6; 95%CI: 1.1 to 2.1). Associations between stains and the first hospital readmission (HR 1.6; 95%CI: 1.0 to 2.5), and number of readmissions (IRR 1.5; 95%CI: 1.1 to 2.1) persisted after adjustment for confounding factors.

Conclusions

Compared to other smokers, those presenting tobacco-stained fingers have a high unadjusted mortality rate and need early and frequent hospital readmission even when controlling for confounders.     

Trends in malaria cases, hospital admissions and deaths following scale-up of anti-malarial interventions, 2000-2010, Rwanda

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To control malaria, the Rwandan government and its partners distributed insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and made artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) widely available from 2005 onwards. The impact of these interventions on malaria cases, admissions and deaths was assessed using data from district hospitals and household surveys. METHODS: District records of ITN and ACT distribution were reviewed. Malaria and non-malaria indictors in 30 district hospitals were ascertained from surveillance records. Trends in cases, admissions and deaths for 2000 to 2010 were assessed by segmented log-linear regression, adjusting the effect size for time trends during the pre-intervention period, 2000-2005. Changes were estimated by comparing trends in post-intervention (2006-2010) with that of pre-intervention (2000-2005) period. All-cause deaths in children under-five in household surveys of 2005 and 2010 were also reviewed to corroborate with the trends of deaths observed in hospitals. RESULTS: The proportion of the population potentially protected by ITN increased from nearly zero in 2005 to 38% in 2006, and 76% in 2010; no major health facility stock-outs of ACT were recorded following their introduction in 2006. In district hospitals, after falling during 2006- 2008, confirmed malaria cases increased in 2009 coinciding with decreased potential ITN coverage and declined again in 2010 following an ITN distribution campaign. For all age groups, from the pre-intervention period, microscopically confirmed cases declined by 72%, (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 12-91%) in 2010, slide positivity rate declined 58%, (CI, 47%-68%), malaria inpatient cases declined 76% (CI, 49%-88%); and malaria deaths declined 47% (CI, 47%-81%). In children below five years of age, malaria inpatients decreased 82% (CI, 61%-92%) and malaria hospital deaths decreased 77% (CI, 40%-91%). Concurrently, outpatient cases, admissions and deaths due to non-malaria diseases in all age groups either increased or remained unchanged. Rainfall and temperature remained favourable for malaria transmission. The annual all-cause mortality in children under-five in household surveys declined from 152 per 1,000 live births during 2001-2005, to 76 per 1,000 live births in 2006-2010 (55% decline). The five-year cumulative number of all-cause deaths in hospital declined 28% (8,051 to 5,801) during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: A greater than 50% decline in confirmed malaria cases, admissions and deaths at district hospitals in Rwanda since 2005 followed a marked increase in ITN coverage and use of ACT. The decline occurred among both children under-five and in children five years and above, while hospital utilization increased and suitable conditions for malaria transmission persisted. Declines in malaria indicators were more striking than in the older age groups. The resurgence in cases associated with decreased ITN coverage in 2009 highlights the need for sustained high levels of anti-malarial interventions in Rwanda and other malaria endemic countries.