Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring,not harvest,affects change in a waterfowl population

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture–mark–recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

State–space mark–recapture estimates reveal a recent decline in abundance of North Atlantic right whales

North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis Müller 1776) present an interesting problem for abundance and trend estimation in marine wildlife conservation. They are long lived, individually identifiable, highly mobile, and one of the rarest of cetaceans. Individuals are annually resighted at different rates, primarily due to varying stay durations among several principal habitats within a large geographic range. To date, characterizations of abundance have been produced that use simple accounting procedures with differing assumptions about mortality. To better characterize changing abundance of North Atlantic right whales between 1990 and 2015, we adapted a state–space formulation with Jolly‐Seber assumptions about population entry (birth and immigration) to individual resighting histories and fit it using empirical Bayes methodology. This hierarchical model included accommodation for the effect of the substantial individual capture heterogeneity. Estimates from this approach were only slightly higher than published accounting procedures, except for the most recent years (when recapture rates had declined substantially). North Atlantic right whales' abundance increased at about 2.8% per annum from median point estimates of 270 individuals in 1990 to 483 in 2010, and then declined to 2015, when the final estimate was 458 individuals (95% credible intervals 444–471). The probability that the population's trajectory post‐2010 was a decline was estimated at 99.99%. Of special concern was the finding that reduced survival rates of adult females relative to adult males have produced diverging abundance trends between sexes. Despite constraints in recent years, both biological (whales' distribution changing) and logistical (fewer resources available to collect individual photo‐identifications), it is still possible to detect this relatively recent, small change in the population's trajectory. This is thanks to the massive dataset of individual North Atlantic right whale identifications accrued over the past three decades. Photo‐identification data provide biological information that allows more informed inference on the status of this species.     

Improving our understanding of demographic monitoring: avian breeding productivity in a tropical dry forest

The ratio of juvenile to adult birds in mist‐net samples is used to monitor avian productivity, but whether it is a “true” estimate of per capita productivity or an index proportional to productivity depends on whether capture probability is not age‐dependent (true estimate) or age difference in capture probability is consistent among years (index). Better understanding of the processes affecting age‐ and year‐specific capture probabilities is needed to advance the application of constant‐effort mist‐netting for monitoring and conservation, particularly in many tropical settings where capture rates are often low. We ranked members of the avian community by capture frequencies, determined if temporary emigration influenced the availability of birds to be captured, and assessed the distribution of birds relative to mist‐nets and the parity between capture‐based productivity estimates and number of fledglings in nest plots in a tropical dry forest in Puerto Rico in 2009 and 2010. Few captures characterized the community of 25 resident species and, when estimable, capture probabilities were low, particularly for juveniles (typically < 0.1). Negative trends in capture probability, temporary emigration, and the distribution of birds suggest that avoidance of mist‐nets influenced capture rates in our study. Increasing mist‐net coverage or moving mist‐nets between sampling periods could increase capture rates. The number of fledglings observed in nest plots (25 ha/plot) did not correlate well with capture‐derived estimates (20 ha/net stations), suggesting the presence of immigrants or failure to find all nests. Our results suggest that indices of breeding productivity from mist‐netting data may track temporal changes in productivity, but such data likely do not reflect “true” productivity in most cases unless age‐specific differences in capture probability are incorporated into estimates. Pilot studies should be conducted to evaluate capture rates and the spatial extent sampled by mist‐nets to improve sampling design and inferences before informing decisions.     

Population genetic analysis of microsatellite variation of guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in Trinidad and Tobago: evidence for a dynamic source–sink metapopulation structure,founder events and population bottlenecks

Riverine fish populations are traditionally considered to be highly structured and subject to strong genetic drift. Here, we use microsatellites to analyse the population structure of the guppy (Poecilia reticulata), focussing on the headwater floodplain area of the Caroni drainage in Trinidad. We also analyse the population genetics of guppies in the Northern Drainage in Trinidad, a habitat characterized by rivers flowing directly into the sea, and a small isolated population in Tobago. Upland Caroni populations are highly differentiated and display low levels of genetic diversity. However, we found no evidence to suggest that these upland populations experienced recent population crashes and the populations appear to approach mutation–drift equilibrium. Dominant downstream migration over both short‐ and long‐time frames has a strong impact on the population genetics of lowland Caroni populations. This drainage system could be considered a source–sink metapopulation, with the tributary furthest downstream representing a ‘super sink’, receiving immigrants from rivers upstream in the drainage. Moreover, the effective population size in the lowlands is surprisingly low in comparison with the apparently large census population sizes.     

Experimental evidence of long‐term reproductive costs in a colonial nesting seabird

Trade‐offs between current and future reproduction are central to the evolution of life histories. Experiments that manipulate brood size provide an effective approach to investigating future costs of current reproduction. Most manipulative studies to date, however, have addressed only the short‐term effects of brood size manipulation. Our goal was to determine whether survival or breeding costs of reproduction in a long‐lived species manifest beyond the subsequent breeding season. To this end, we investigated long‐term survival and breeding effects of a multi‐year reproductive cost experiment conducted on black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, a long‐lived colonial nesting seabird. We used multi‐state capture–recapture modeling to assess hypotheses regarding the role of experimentally reduced breeding effort and other factors, including climate phase and colony size and productivity, on future survival and breeding probabilities during the 16‐yr period following the experiment. We found that forced nest failures had a positive effect on breeding probability over time, but had no effect on long‐term survival. This apparent canalization of survival suggests that adult survival is the most important parameter influencing fitness in this long‐lived species, and that adults should pay reproductive costs in ways that do not compromise this critical life history parameter. When declines in adult survival rate are observed, they may indicate populations of conservation concern.     

Capwire: a R package for estimating population census size from non‐invasive genetic sampling

Non‐invasive genetic sampling is an increasingly popular approach for investigating the demographics of natural populations. This has also become a useful tool for managers and conservation biologists, especially for those species for which traditional mark–recapture studies are not practical. However, the consequence of collecting DNA indirectly is that an individual may be sampled multiple times per sampling session. This requires alternative statistical approaches to those used in traditional mark–recapture studies. Here we present the R package capwire , an implementation of the population size estimators of Miller et al. (Molecular Ecology 2005; 14 : 1991), which were designed to deal specifically with this type of sampling. The aim of this project is to enable users across platforms to easily manipulate their data and interact with existing R packages. We have also provided functions to simulate data under a variety of scenarios to allow for rigorous testing of the robustness of the method and to facilitate further development of this approach.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

ABC inference of multi‐population divergence with admixture from unphased population genomic data

Rapidly developing sequencing technologies and declining costs have made it possible to collect genome‐scale data from population‐level samples in nonmodel systems. Inferential tools for historical demography given these data sets are, at present, underdeveloped. In particular, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has yet to be widely embraced by researchers generating these data. Here, we demonstrate the promise of ABC for analysis of the large data sets that are now attainable from nonmodel taxa through current genomic sequencing technologies. We develop and test an ABC framework for model selection and parameter estimation, given histories of three‐population divergence with admixture. We then explore different sampling regimes to illustrate how sampling more loci, longer loci or more individuals affects the quality of model selection and parameter estimation in this ABC framework. Our results show that inferences improved substantially with increases in the number and/or length of sequenced loci, while less benefit was gained by sampling large numbers of individuals. Optimal sampling strategies given our inferential models included at least 2000 loci, each approximately 2 kb in length, sampled from five diploid individuals per population, although specific strategies are model and question dependent. We tested our ABC approach through simulation‐based cross‐validations and illustrate its application using previously analysed data from the oak gall wasp, Biorhiza pallida.     

WFABC: a Wright–Fisher ABC‐based approach for inferring effective population sizes and selection coefficients from time‐sampled data

With novel developments in sequencing technologies, time‐sampled data are becoming more available and accessible. Naturally, there have been efforts in parallel to infer population genetic parameters from these data sets. Here, we compare and analyse four recent approaches based on the Wright–Fisher model for inferring selection coefficients (s) given effective population size (N_e), with simulated temporal data sets. Furthermore, we demonstrate the advantage of a recently proposed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)‐based method that is able to correctly infer genomewide average N_e from time‐serial data, which is then set as a prior for inferring per‐site selection coefficients accurately and precisely. We implement this ABC method in a new software and apply it to a classical time‐serial data set of the medionigra genotype in the moth Panaxia dominula. We show that a recessive lethal model is the best explanation for the observed variation in allele frequency by implementing an estimator of the dominance ratio (h).     

multimark: an R package for analysis of capture–recapture data consisting of multiple “noninvasive” marks

I describe an open‐source R package, multimark , for estimation of survival and abundance from capture–mark–recapture data consisting of multiple “noninvasive” marks. Noninvasive marks include natural pelt or skin patterns, scars, and genetic markers that enable individual identification in lieu of physical capture. multimark provides a means for combining and jointly analyzing encounter histories from multiple noninvasive sources that otherwise cannot be reliably matched (e.g., left‐ and right‐sided photographs of bilaterally asymmetrical individuals). The package is currently capable of fitting open population Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) and closed population abundance models with up to two mark types using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. multimark can also be used for Bayesian analyses of conventional capture–recapture data consisting of a single‐mark type. Some package features include (1) general model specification using formulas already familiar to most R users, (2) ability to include temporal, behavioral, age, cohort, and individual heterogeneity effects in detection and survival probabilities, (3) improved MCMC algorithm that is computationally faster and more efficient than previously proposed methods, (4) Bayesian multimodel inference using reversible jump MCMC, and (5) data simulation capabilities for power analyses and assessing model performance. I demonstrate use of multimark using left‐ and right‐sided encounter histories for bobcats (Lynx rufus) collected from remote single‐camera stations in southern California. In this example, there is evidence of a behavioral effect (i.e., trap “happy” response) that is otherwise indiscernible using conventional single‐sided analyses. The package will be most useful to ecologists seeking stronger inferences by combining different sources of mark–recapture data that are difficult (or impossible) to reliably reconcile, particularly with the sparse datasets typical of rare or elusive species for which noninvasive sampling techniques are most commonly employed. Addressing deficiencies in currently available software, multimark also provides a user‐friendly interface for performing Bayesian multimodel inference using capture–recapture data consisting of a single conventional mark or multiple noninvasive marks.     

Rise and fall of a wolf population: genetic diversity and structure during recovery,rapid expansion and drastic decline

The grey wolves (Canis lupus) of Finland have had a varied history, with a period of rapid population expansion after the mid‐1990s followed by a decline with a current census size of about 140 wolves. Here, we investigate the impact of unstable population size and connectivity on genetic diversity and structure in a long‐term genetic study of 298 Finnish wolves born in 1995–2009 and genotyped for 17 microsatellite loci. During the initial recovery and prior to population expansion, genetic diversity was high (1995–1997: LD‐N_e = 67.2; H_o = 0.749; H_e = 0.709) despite a small census size and low number of breeders (N_c < 100; N_b < 10) likely reflecting the status of the Russian source population. Surprisingly, observed heterozygosity decreased significantly during the study period (t = ?2.643, P = 0.021) despite population expansion, likely a result of an increase in inbreeding (F_IS = 0.108 in 2007–2009) owing to a low degree of connectivity with adjacent Russian wolf population (m = 0.016–0.090; F_ST = 0.086, P < 0.001) and population crash after 2006. However, population growth had a temporary positive impact on N_e and number of family lines. This study shows that even strong population growth alone might not be adequate to retain genetic diversity, especially when accompanied with low amount of subsequent gene flow and population decline.     

Population size estimates based on the frequency of genetically assigned parent–offspring pairs within a subsample

Estimating population density as precise as possible is a key premise for managing wild animal species. This can be a challenging task if the species in question is elusive or, due to high quantities, hard to count. We present a new, mathematically derived estimator for population size, where the estimation is based solely on the frequency of genetically assigned parent–offspring pairs within a subsample of an ungulate population. By use of molecular markers like microsatellites, the number of these parent–offspring pairs can be determined. The study's aim was to clarify whether a classical capture–mark–recapture (CMR) method can be adapted or extended by this genetic element to a genetic‐based capture–mark–recapture (g‐CMR). We numerically validate the presented estimator (and corresponding variance estimates) and provide the R‐code for the computation of estimates of population size including confidence intervals. The presented method provides a new framework to precisely estimate population size based on the genetic analysis of a one‐time subsample. This is especially of value where traditional CMR methods or other DNA‐based (fecal or hair) capture–recapture methods fail or are too difficult to apply. The DNA source used is basically irrelevant, but in the present case the sampling of an annual hunting bag is to serve as data basis. In addition to the high quality of muscle tissue samples, hunting bags provide additional and essential information for wildlife management practices, such as age, weight, or sex. In cases where a g‐CMR method is ecologically and hunting‐wise appropriate, it enables a wide applicability, also through its species‐independent use.     

Sampling related individuals within ponds biases estimates of population structure in a pond‐breeding amphibian

Effective conservation and management of pond‐breeding amphibians depends on the accurate estimation of population structure, demographic parameters, and the influence of landscape features on breeding‐site connectivity. Population‐level studies of pond‐breeding amphibians typically sample larval life stages because they are easily captured and can be sampled nondestructively. These studies often identify high levels of relatedness between individuals from the same pond, which can be exacerbated by sampling the larval stage. Yet, the effect of these related individuals on population genetic studies using genomic data is not yet fully understood. Here, we assess the effect of within‐pond relatedness on population and landscape genetic analyses by focusing on the barred tiger salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium) from the Nebraska Sandhills. Utilizing genome‐wide SNPs generated using a double‐digest RADseq approach, we conducted standard population and landscape genetic analyses using datasets with and without siblings. We found that reduced sample sizes influenced parameter estimates more than the inclusion of siblings, but that within‐pond relatedness led to the inference of spurious population structure when analyses depended on allele frequencies. Our landscape genetic analyses also supported different models across datasets depending on the spatial resolution analyzed. We recommend that future studies not only test for relatedness among larval samples but also remove siblings before conducting population or landscape genetic analyses. We also recommend alternative sampling strategies to reduce sampling siblings before sequencing takes place. Biases introduced by unknowingly including siblings can have significant implications for population and landscape genetic analyses, and in turn, for species conservation strategies and outcomes.     

Microclimatic differentiation of gene pools in the Lobaria pulmonaria symbiosis in a primeval forest landscape

Population genetics of the tree‐colonizing lichen Lobaria pulmonaria were studied in the largest primeval beech forest of Europe, covering 10 000 ha. During an intensive survey of the area, we collected 1522 thallus fragments originating from 483 trees, which were genotyped with eight mycobiont‐ and 14 photobiont‐specific microsatellite markers. The mycobiont and photobiont of L. pulmonaria were found to consist of two distinct gene pools, which are co‐existing within small areas of 3–180 ha in a homogeneous beech forest. The small‐scale distribution pattern of the symbiotic gene pools show habitat partitioning of lineages associated with either floodplains or mountain forests. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we dated the divergence of the two fungal gene pools of L. pulmonaria as the Early Pleistocene. Both fungal gene pools survived the Pleistocene glacial cycles in the Carpathians, although possibly in climatically different refugia. Fungal diversification prior to these cycles and the selection of photobionts with different altitudinal distributions explain the current sympatric, but ecologically differentiated habitat partitioning of L. pulmonaria. In addition, the habitat preferences of the mycobiont are determined by other factors and are rather independent of those of the photobiont at the landscape level. The distinct gene pools should be considered evolutionarily significant units and deserve specific conservation priorities in the future, for example gene pool A, which is a Pliocene relict.     

Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean

Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate‐associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture‐recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species.     

The population demography of Betula maximowicziana,a cool‐temperate tree species in Japan,in relation to the last glacial period: its admixture‐like genetic structure is the result of simple population splitting not admixing

Conservation of the local genetic variation and evolutionary integrity of economically and ecologically important trees is a key aspect of studies involving forest genetics, and a population demographic history of the target species provides valuable information for this purpose. Here, the genetic structure of 48 populations of Betula maximowicziana was assessed using 12 expressed sequence tag–simple sequence repeat (EST‐SSR) markers. Genetic diversity was lower in northern populations than southern ones and structure analysis revealed three groups: northern and southern clusters and an admixed group. Eleven more genomic‐SSR loci were added and the demographic history of these three groups was inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The ABC revealed that a simple split scenario was much more likely than isolation with admixture, suggesting that the admixture‐like structure detected in this species was due to ancestral polymorphisms. The ABC analysis suggested that the population growth and divergence of the three groups occurred 96 800 (95% CI, 20 500–599 000) and 28 300 (95% CI, 8700–98 400) years ago, respectively. We need to be aware of several sources of uncertainty in the inference such as assumptions about the generation time, overlapping of generations, confidence intervals of the estimated parameters and the assumed model in the ABC. However, the results of the ABC together with the model‐based maps of reconstructed past species distribution and palaeoecological data suggested that the modern genetic structure of B. maximowicziana originated prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM) and that some populations survived in the northern range even during the LGM.     

Slow life history and rapid extreme flood: demographic mechanisms and their consequences on population viability in a threatened amphibian

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Surface‐water availability governs survival of an amphibian in arid mountain streams

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Effectiveness of mass trapping in the reduction of Monochamus galloprovincialis Olivier (Col.: Cerambycidae) populations

Monochamus galloprovincialis Olivier beetles vector the causal agent of pine wilt disease (PWD), nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner and Bührer) Nickle, in Europe. Traps and attractants have been optimized for the capture of M. galloprovincialis, increasing the possibility of developing methods of lowering its population in PWD‐affected areas with the aim of either eradicating the disease or containing the spread of it. To evaluate the effectiveness of such mass‐trapping campaigns, two sets of experiments were carried out in 2010 and 2013. The release of 353 laboratory‐reared beetles in the experimental area of 2010 facilitated the evaluation of capture–mark–recapture (CMR) procedures in the calculation of population abundance estimates using the POPAN formulation of the Jolly–Seber model, a prerequisite for the assessment of mass trapping. Abundance estimates derived from best‐fitting parameters fell within one standard error of the real figures, proving the method appropriate. In 2013, four trap densities were tested in six 36 ha plots. To evaluate the removed proportions, the local beetle population was estimated in a contiguous 260 ha study area. A superpopulation of 21 319 individuals could be calculated from the CMR data, corresponding to a rough density of 82 individuals per hectare. Evaluated trapping densities removed 4.66%, 20.50%, 33.33% and 59.80% of M. galloprovincialis population at 0.02, 0.11, 0.25 and 0.44 traps/ha, respectively, thus the estimated 95% removal would occur at 0.82 traps/ha. These results suggest that substantial reduction of M. galloprovincialis abundances might be achieved via mass trapping and that this represents a very promising management method for the containment or eventual eradication of B. xylophilus at the areas affected by the PWD.