Effects of population characteristics and structure on estimates of effective population size in a house sparrow metapopulation

Effective population size (N_e) is a key parameter to understand evolutionary processes and the viability of endangered populations as it determines the rate of genetic drift and inbreeding. Low N_e can lead to inbreeding depression and reduced population adaptability. In this study, we estimated contemporary N_e using genetic estimators (LDNE, ONeSAMP, MLNE and CoNe) as well as a demographic estimator in a natural insular house sparrow metapopulation. We investigated whether population characteristics (population size, sex ratio, immigration rate, variance in population size and population growth rate) explained variation within and among populations in the ratio of effective to census population size (N_e/N_c). In general, N_e/N_c ratios increased with immigration rates. Genetic N_e was much larger than demographic N_e, probably due to a greater effect of immigration on genetic than demographic processes in local populations. Moreover, although estimates of genetic N_e seemed to track N_c quite well, the genetic N_e‐estimates were often larger than N_c within populations. Estimates of genetic N_e for the metapopulation were however within the expected range (<N_c). Our results suggest that in fragmented populations, even low levels of gene flow may have important consequences for the interpretation of genetic estimates of N_e. Consequently, further studies are needed to understand how N_e estimated in local populations or the total metapopulation relates to actual rates of genetic drift and inbreeding.     

Habitat fragmentation influences genetic diversity and differentiation: Fine‐scale population structure of Cercis canadensis (eastern redbud)

Forest fragmentation may negatively affect plants through reduced genetic diversity and increased population structure due to habitat isolation, decreased population size, and disturbance of pollen‐seed dispersal mechanisms. However, in the case of tree species, effective pollen‐seed dispersal, mating system, and ecological dynamics may help the species overcome the negative effect of forest fragmentation. A fine‐scale population genetics study can shed light on the postfragmentation genetic diversity and structure of a species. Here, we present the genetic diversity and population structure of Cercis canadensis L. (eastern redbud) wild populations on a fine scale within fragmented areas centered around the borders of Georgia–Tennessee, USA. We hypothesized high genetic diversity among the collections of C. canadensis distributed across smaller geographical ranges. Fifteen microsatellite loci were used to genotype 172 individuals from 18 unmanaged and naturally occurring collection sites. Our results indicated presence of population structure, overall high genetic diversity (H_E = 0.63, H_O = 0.34), and moderate genetic differentiation (F_ST = 0.14) among the collection sites. Two major genetic clusters within the smaller geographical distribution were revealed by STRUCTURE. Our data suggest that native C. canadensis populations in the fragmented area around the Georgia–Tennessee border were able to maintain high levels of genetic diversity, despite the presence of considerable spatial genetic structure. As habitat isolation may negatively affect gene flow of outcrossing species across time, consequences of habitat fragmentation should be regularly monitored for this and other forest species. This study also has important implications for habitat management efforts and future breeding programs.     

Forest Fragmentation Alters the Population Dynamics of a Late‐successional Tropical Tree

Tropical late‐successional tree species are at high risk of local extinction due to habitat loss and fragmentation. Population‐growth rates in fragmented populations are predicted to decline as a result of reduced fecundity, survival and growth. We examined the demographic effects of habitat fragmentation by comparing the population dynamics of the late‐successional tree Poulsenia armata (Moraceae) in southern Mexico between a continuous forest and several forest fragments using integral projection models (IPMs) during 2010–2012. Forest fragmentation did not lead to differences in population density and even resulted in a higher population‐growth rate (λ) in fragments compared to continuous forests. Habitat fragmentation had drastic effects on the dynamics of P. armata, causing the population structure to shift toward smaller sizes. Fragmented populations experienced a significant decrease in juvenile survival and growth compared to unaltered populations. Adult survival and growth made the greatest relative contributions to λ in both habitat types during 2011–2012. However, the relative importance of juvenile survival and growth to λ was highest in the fragmented forest in 2010–2011. Our Life Table Response Experiment analysis revealed that positive contributions of adult fecundity explained most of the variation of λ between both habitats and annual periods. Finally, P. armata has a relatively slow speed of recovery after disturbances, compromising persistence of fragmented populations. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how forest fragmentation affects plant population dynamics, as done here, will prove essential for the preservation of natural areas.     

Detection of barriers to dispersal is masked by long lifespans and large population sizes

Population genetic analyses of species inhabiting fragmented landscapes are essential tools for conservation. Occasionally, analyses of fragmented populations find no evidence of isolation, even though a barrier to dispersal is apparent. In some cases, not enough time may have passed to observe divergence due to genetic drift, a problem particularly relevant for long‐lived species with overlapping generations. Failing to consider this quality during population structure analyses could result in incorrect conclusions about the impact of fragmentation on the species. We designed a model to explore how lifespan and population size influence perceived population structure of isolated populations over time. This iterative model tracked how simulated populations of variable lifespan and population size were affected by drift alone, using a freshwater mussel, Quadrula quadrula (mapleleaf), as a model system. In addition to exhibiting dramatic lifespan variability among species, mussels are also highly imperiled and exhibit fragmentation by dams throughout the range of many species. Results indicated that, unless population size was small (<50 individuals) or lifespan short (<22 years), observing genetic divergence among populations was unlikely. Even if wild populations are isolated, observing population structure in long‐lived mussels from modern damming practices is unlikely because it takes longer for population structure to develop in these species than most North American dams have existed. Larger population sizes and longer lifespans increase the time needed for significant divergence to occur. This study helps illuminate the factors that influence genetic responses by populations to isolation and provides a useful model for conservation‐oriented research.     

Effective population size as a driver for divergence of an antimicrobial peptide (Hymenoptaecin) in two common European bumblebee species

Social insects are the target of numerous pathogens. This is because the high density of closely‐related individuals frequently interacting with each other enhances the transmission and establishment of pathogens. This high selective pressure results in the rapid evolution of immune genes, which might be counteracted by a reduced effective population size (N_e) lowering the effectiveness of selection. We tested the effect of N_e on the evolutionary rate of an important immune gene for the antimicrobial peptide Hymenoptaecin in two common central European bumblebee species: Bombus terrestris and Bombus lapidarius. Both species are similar in their biology and are expected to be under similar selective pressures because pathogen prevalence does not differ between species. However, previous studies indicated a higher N_e in B. terrestris compared to B. lapidarius. We found high intraspecific variability in the coding sequence but low variability for silent polymorphisms in B. lapidarius. Estimates of long‐ and short‐term N_e were three‐ to four‐fold higher N_e in B. terrestris, although the species did not differ in census population sizes. The difference in N_e might result in less efficient selection and suboptimal adaptation of immune genes (e.g. hymenoptaecin) in B. lapidarius, and thus this species might become less resistant and more tolerant, turning into a superspreader of diseases.     

Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long‐lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

Effective population size (N_e) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well‐studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N_e estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single‐sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N_b) and N_e during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N_eV) and inbreeding N_e (N_eI). Single‐sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N_e (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N_eV (240–319) and N_eI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single‐sample N_e (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N_eV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N_e/N_c) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N_e can complement demographic‐based monitoring of N_c and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.     

PSMC analysis of effective population sizes in molecular ecology and its application to black‐and‐white Ficedula flycatchers

Climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period governed the demography of species and contributed to population differentiation and ultimately speciation. Studies of these past processes have previously been hindered by a lack of means and genetic data to model changes in effective population size (N_e) through time. However, based on diploid genome sequences of high quality, the recently developed pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) can estimate trajectories of changes in N_e over considerable time periods. We applied this approach to resequencing data from nearly 200 genomes of four species and several populations of the Ficedula species complex of black‐and‐white flycatchers. N_e curves of Atlas, collared, pied and semicollared flycatcher converged 1–2 million years ago (Ma) at an N_e of ≈ 200 000, likely reflecting the time when all four species last shared a common ancestor. Subsequent separate N_e trajectories are consistent with lineage splitting and speciation. All species showed evidence of population growth up until 100–200 thousand years ago (kya), followed by decline and then start of a new phase of population expansion. However, timing and amplitude of changes in N_e differed among species, and for pied flycatcher, the temporal dynamics of N_e differed between Spanish birds and central/northern European populations. This cautions against extrapolation of demographic inference between lineages and calls for adequate sampling to provide representative pictures of the coalescence process in different species or populations. We also empirically evaluate criteria for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC and arrive at recommendations of using sequencing data with a mean genome coverage of ≥18X, a per‐site filter of ≥10 reads and no more than 25% of missing data.     

Landscape genomic signatures indicate reduced gene flow and forest‐associated adaptive divergence in an endangered neotropical turtle

Human‐induced transformations of ecosystems usually result in fragmented populations subject to increased extinction risk. Fragmentation is also often associated with novel environmental heterogeneity, which in combination with restricted gene flow may increase the opportunity for local adaptation. To manage at‐risk populations in these landscapes, it is important to understand how gene flow is changing, and how populations respond to habitat loss. We conducted a landscape genomics analysis using Restriction‐site Associated DNA sequencing to investigate the evolutionary response of the critically endangered Dahl's Toad‐headed turtle (Mesoclemmys dahli) to severe habitat modification. The species has lost almost all of its natural habitat in the southwestern part of its range and about 70% in the northeast. Based on least cost path analysis across different resistance surfaces for 3,211 SNPs, we found that the landscape matrix is restricting gene flow, causing the fragmentation of the species into at least six populations. Genome scans and allele‐environment association analyses indicate that the population fragments in the deforested grasslands of the southwest are adaptively different from those in the more forested northeast. Populations in areas with no forest had low levels of adaptive genetic diversity and the fixation of ancestrally‐polymorphic SNPs, consistent with directional selection in this novel environment. Our results suggest that this forest‐stream specialist is adapting to pond‐grassland conditions, but it is also suffering from negative consequences of habitat loss, including genetic erosion, isolation, small effective population sizes, and inbreeding. We recommend gene flow restoration via genetic rescue to counteract these threats, and provide guidance for this strategy.     

A genetic demographic analysis of Lake Malawi rock‐dwelling cichlids using spatio‐temporal sampling

We estimated the effective population sizes (N_e) and tested for short‐term temporal demographic stability of populations of two Lake Malawi cichlids: Maylandia benetos, a micro‐endemic, and Maylandia zebra, a widespread species found across the lake. We sampled a total of 351 individuals, genotyped them at 13 microsatellite loci and sequenced their mitochondrial D‐loop to estimate genetic diversity, population structure, demographic history and effective population sizes. At the microsatellite loci, genetic diversity was high in all populations. Yet, genetic diversity was relatively low for the sequence data. Microsatellites yielded mean N_e estimates of 481 individuals (±99 SD) for M. benetos and between 597 (±106.3 SD) and 1524 (±483.9 SD) individuals for local populations of M. zebra. The microsatellite data indicated no deviations from mutation–drift equilibrium. Maylandia zebra was further found to be in migration–drift equilibrium. Temporal fluctuations in allele frequencies were limited across the sampling period for both species. Bayesian Skyline analyses suggested a recent expansion of M. zebra populations in line with lake‐level fluctuations, whereas the demographic history of M. benetos could only be estimated for the very recent past. Divergence time estimates placed the origin of M. benetos within the last 100 ka after the refilling of the lake and suggested that it split off the sympatric M. zebra population. Overall, our data indicate that micro‐endemics and populations in less favourable habitats have smaller N_e, indicating that drift may play an important role driving their divergence. Yet, despite small population sizes, high genetic variation can be maintained.     

Effective size of density‐dependent two‐sex populations: the effect of mating systems

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N_e in short‐lived, density‐dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density‐dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N_e/N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male‐biased, density‐dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density‐independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N_e/N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes.     

High genetic diversity in a small population: the case of Chilean blue whales

It is generally assumed that species with low population sizes have lower genetic diversities than larger populations and vice versa. However, this would not be the case for long‐lived species with long generation times, and which populations have declined due to anthropogenic effects, such as the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus). This species was intensively decimated globally to near extinction during the 20th century. Along the Chilean coast, it is estimated that at least 4288 blue whales were hunted from an apparently pre‐exploitation population size (k) of a maximum of 6200 individuals (Southeastern Pacific). Thus, here, we describe the mtDNA (control region) and nDNA (microsatellites) diversities of the Chilean blue whale aggregation site in order to verify the expectation of low genetic diversity in small populations. We then compare our findings with other blue whale aggregations in the Southern Hemisphere. Interestingly, although the estimated population size is small compared with the pre‐whaling era, there is still considerable genetic diversity, even after the population crash, both in mitochondrial (N = 46) and nuclear (N = 52) markers (H_d = 0.890 and H_o = 0.692, respectively). Our results suggest that this diversity could be a consequence of the long generation times and the relatively short period of time elapsed since the end of whaling, which has been observed in other heavily‐exploited whale populations. The genetic variability of blue whales on their southern Chile feeding grounds was similar to that found in other Southern Hemisphere blue whale feeding grounds. Our phylogenetic analysis of mtDNA haplotypes does not show extensive differentiation of populations among Southern Hemisphere blue whale feeding grounds. The present study suggests that although levels of genetic diversity are frequently used as estimators of population health, these parameters depend on the biology of the species and should be taken into account in a monitoring framework study to obtain a more complete picture of the conservation status of a population.     

Trapped within the city: integrating demography,time since isolation and population‐specific traits to assess the genetic effects of urbanization

Urbanization is a severe form of habitat fragmentation that can cause many species to be locally extirpated and many others to become trapped and isolated within an urban matrix. The role of drift in reducing genetic diversity and increasing genetic differentiation is well recognized in urban populations. However, explicit incorporation and analysis of the demographic and temporal factors promoting drift in urban environments are poorly studied. Here, we genotyped 15 microsatellites in 320 fire salamanders from the historical city of Oviedo (Est. 8th century) to assess the effects of time since isolation, demographic history (historical effective population size; N_e) and patch size on genetic diversity, population structure and contemporary N_e. Our results indicate that urban populations of fire salamanders are highly differentiated, most likely due to the recent N_e declines, as calculated in coalescence analyses, concomitant with the urban development of Oviedo. However, urbanization only caused a small loss of genetic diversity. Regression modelling showed that patch size was positively associated with contemporary N_e, while we found only moderate support for the effects of demographic history when excluding populations with unresolved history. This highlights the interplay between different factors in determining current genetic diversity and structure. Overall, the results of our study on urban populations of fire salamanders provide some of the very first insights into the mechanisms affecting changes in genetic diversity and population differentiation via drift in urban environments, a crucial subject in a world where increasing urbanization is forecasted.     

Consequences of multiple mating‐system shifts for population and range‐wide genetic structure in a coastal dune plant

Evolutionary transitions from outcrossing to selfing can strongly affect the genetic diversity and structure of species at multiple spatial scales. We investigated the genetic consequences of mating‐system shifts in the North American, Pacific coast dune endemic plant Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia (Onagraceae) by assaying variation at 13 nuclear (n) and six chloroplast (cp) microsatellite (SSR) loci for 38 populations across the species range. As predicted from the expected reduction in effective population size (N_e) caused by selfing, small‐flowered, predominantly selfing (SF) populations had much lower nSSR diversity (but not cpSSR) than large‐flowered, predominantly outcrossing (LF) populations. The reduction in nSSR diversity was greater than expected from the effects of selfing on N_e alone, but could not be accounted for by indirect effects of selfing on population density. Although selfing should reduce gene flow, SF populations were not more genetically differentiated than LF populations. We detected five clusters of nSSR genotypes and three groups of cpSSR haplotypes across the species range consisting of parapatric groups of populations that usually (but not always) differed in mating system, suggesting that selfing may often initiate ecogeographic isolation. However, lineage‐wide genetic variation was not lower for selfing clusters, failing to support the hypothesis that selection for reproductive assurance spurred the evolution of selfing in this species. Within three populations where LF and SF plants coexist, we detected genetic differentiation among diverged floral phenotypes suggesting that reproductive isolation (probably postzygotic) may help maintain the striking mating‐system differentiation observed across the range of this species.     

Expansion history and environmental suitability shape effective population size in a plant invasion

The margins of an expanding range are predicted to be challenging environments for adaptation. Marginal populations should often experience low effective population sizes (N_e) where genetic drift is high due to demographic expansion and/or census population size is low due to unfavourable environmental conditions. Nevertheless, invasive species demonstrate increasing evidence of rapid evolution and potential adaptation to novel environments encountered during colonization, calling into question whether significant reductions in N_e are realized during range expansions in nature. Here we report one of the first empirical tests of the joint effects of expansion dynamics and environment on effective population size variation during invasive range expansion. We estimate contemporary values of N_e using rates of linkage disequilibrium among genome‐wide markers within introduced populations of the highly invasive plant Centaurea solstitialis (yellow starthistle) in North America (California, USA), and within native Eurasian populations. As predicted, we find that N_e within the invaded range is positively correlated with both expansion history (time since founding) and habitat quality (abiotic climate). History and climate had independent additive effects with similar effect sizes, indicating an important role for both factors in this invasion. These results support theoretical expectations for the population genetics of range expansion, though whether these processes can ultimately arrest the spread of an invasive species remains an unanswered question.     

Pollen dispersal and genetic variation in an early‐successional forest herb in a peri‐urban forest

In order to conserve forest plant species under the particularly high constraints that represent urban surroundings, it is necessary to identify the key factors for population persistence. This study examined within‐ and between‐population pollen dispersal using fluorescent dye as pollen analogue, and genetic variation and structure using 15 allozyme loci in Centaurium erythraea, an insect‐pollinated, early‐successional forest biennial herb occurring in a peri‐urban forest (Brussels urban zone, Belgium). Dye dispersal showed an exponential decay distribution, with most dye transfers occurring at short distances (<15 m), and only a few long‐distance events (up to 743 m). Flowers of C. erythraea are mainly visited by Syrphids (Diptera) and small bees, which are usually considered as short‐distance pollen dispersers, and occasionally by bumblebees, which are usually longer‐distance pollen dispersers. Small and large dye source populations differed in dye deposition patterns. The populations showed low genetic diversity, high inbreeding coefficients (F_IS) and high genetic differentiation (F_ST), suggesting restricted gene flow, which can be expected for an early‐successional biennial species with a predominantly selfing breeding system and fluctuating population sizes. The positive relationship between recruitment rate and allelic richness and expected heterozygosity, and the absence of significant correlations between genetic variation and population size suggest seedling recruitment from the seed bank, contributing to maintain genetic diversity. Long‐distance dye dispersal events indicate pollinator movements along urban forest path and road verges. These landscape elements might therefore have a potential conservation value by contributing to connectivity of early‐successional species populations located in patchy open habitats.     

Effects of landscape matrix on population connectivity of an arboreal mammal,Petaurus breviceps

Ongoing habitat loss and fragmentation is considered a threat to biodiversity as it can create small, isolated populations that are at increased risk of extinction. Tree‐dependent species are predicted to be highly sensitive to forest and woodland loss and fragmentation, but few studies have tested the influence of different types of landscape matrix on gene flow and population structure of arboreal species. Here, we examine the effects of landscape matrix on population structure of the sugar glider (Petaurus breviceps) in a fragmented landscape in southeastern South Australia. We collected 250 individuals across 12 native Eucalyptus forest remnants surrounded by cleared agricultural land or exotic Pinus radiata plantations and a large continuous eucalypt forest. Fifteen microsatellite loci were genotyped and analyzed to infer levels of population differentiation and dispersal. Genetic differentiation among most forest patches was evident. We found evidence for female philopatry and restricted dispersal distances for females relative to males, suggesting there is male‐biased dispersal. Among the environmental variables, spatial variables including geographic location, minimum distance to neighboring patch, and degree of isolation were the most important in explaining genetic variation. The permeability of a cleared agricultural matrix to dispersing gliders was significantly higher than that of a pine matrix, with the gliders dispersing shorter distances across the latter. Our results added to previous findings for other species of restricted dispersal and connectivity due to habitat fragmentation in the same region, providing valuable information for the development of strategies to improve the connectivity of populations in the future.     

Genome‐wide population structure and admixture analysis reveals weak differentiation among Ugandan goat breeds

Uganda has a large population of goats, predominantly from indigenous breeds reared in diverse production systems, whose existence is threatened by crossbreeding with exotic Boer goats. Knowledge about the genetic characteristics and relationships among these Ugandan goat breeds and the potential admixture with Boer goats is still limited. Using a medium‐density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panel, we assessed the genetic diversity, population structure and admixture in six goat breeds in Uganda: Boer, Karamojong, Kigezi, Mubende, Small East African and Sebei. All the animals had genotypes for about 46 105 SNPs after quality control. We found high proportions of polymorphic SNPs ranging from 0.885 (Kigezi) to 0.928 (Sebei). The overall mean observed (H_O) and expected (H_E) heterozygosity across breeds was 0.355 ± 0.147 and 0.384 ± 0.143 respectively. Principal components, genetic distances and admixture analyses revealed weak population sub‐structuring among the breeds. Principal components separated Kigezi and weakly Small East African from other indigenous goats. Sebei and Karamojong were tightly entangled together, whereas Mubende occupied a more central position with high admixture from all other local breeds. The Boer breed showed a unique cluster from the Ugandan indigenous goat breeds. The results reflect common ancestry but also some level of geographical differentiation. admixture and f₄ statistics revealed gene flow from Boer and varying levels of genetic admixture among the breeds. Generally, moderate to high levels of genetic variability were observed. Our findings provide useful insights into maintaining genetic diversity and designing appropriate breeding programs to exploit within‐breed diversity and heterozygote advantage in crossbreeding schemes.     

Rise and fall of a wolf population: genetic diversity and structure during recovery,rapid expansion and drastic decline

The grey wolves (Canis lupus) of Finland have had a varied history, with a period of rapid population expansion after the mid‐1990s followed by a decline with a current census size of about 140 wolves. Here, we investigate the impact of unstable population size and connectivity on genetic diversity and structure in a long‐term genetic study of 298 Finnish wolves born in 1995–2009 and genotyped for 17 microsatellite loci. During the initial recovery and prior to population expansion, genetic diversity was high (1995–1997: LD‐N_e = 67.2; H_o = 0.749; H_e = 0.709) despite a small census size and low number of breeders (N_c < 100; N_b < 10) likely reflecting the status of the Russian source population. Surprisingly, observed heterozygosity decreased significantly during the study period (t = ?2.643, P = 0.021) despite population expansion, likely a result of an increase in inbreeding (F_IS = 0.108 in 2007–2009) owing to a low degree of connectivity with adjacent Russian wolf population (m = 0.016–0.090; F_ST = 0.086, P < 0.001) and population crash after 2006. However, population growth had a temporary positive impact on N_e and number of family lines. This study shows that even strong population growth alone might not be adequate to retain genetic diversity, especially when accompanied with low amount of subsequent gene flow and population decline.     

Volatility in the effective size of a freshwater gastropod population

Despite the utility of gastropod models for the study of evolutionary processes of great generality and importance, their effective population size has rarely been estimated in the field. Here, we report allele frequency variance at three allozyme‐encoding loci monitored over 7 years in a population of the invasive freshwater pulmonate snail Physa acuta (Draparnaud 1805), estimating effective population size with both single‐sample and two‐sample approaches. Estimated N_e declined from effectively infinite in 2009 to approximately 40–50 in 2012 and then rose back to infinity in 2015, corresponding to a striking fluctuation in the apparent census size of the population. Such volatility in N_e may reflect cryptic population subdivision.     

Considerations for monitoring population trends of colonial waterbirds using the effective number of breeders and census estimates

Detecting trends in population size fluctuations is a major focus in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. Populations of colonial waterbirds have been monitored using demographic approaches to determine annual census size (N_a). We propose the addition of genetic estimates of the effective number of breeders (N_b) as indirect measures of the risk of loss of genetic diversity to improve the evaluation of demographics and increase the accuracy of trend estimates in breeding colonies. Here, we investigated which methods of the estimation of N_b are more precise under conditions of moderate genetic diversity, limited sample sizes and few microsatellite loci, as often occurs with natural populations. We used the wood stork as a model species and we offered a workflow that researchers can follow for monitoring bird breeding colonies. Our approach started with simulations using five estimators of N_b and the theoretical results were validated with empirical data collected from breeding colonies settled in the Brazilian Pantanal wetland. In parallel, we estimated census size using a corrected method based on counting active nests. Both in simulations and in natural populations, the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and sibship assignment (SA) methods yielded more precise estimates than the linkage disequilibrium, heterozygosity excess, and molecular coancestry methods. In particular, the ABC method performed best with few loci and small sample sizes, while the other estimators required larger sample sizes and at least 13 loci to not underestimate N_b. Moreover, according to our N_b/N_a estimates (values were often ≤0.1), the wood stork colonies evaluated could be facing the loss of genetic diversity. We demonstrate that the combination of genetic and census estimates is a useful approach for monitoring natural breeding bird populations. This methodology has been recommended for populations of rare species or with a known history of population decline to support conservation efforts.