Predictive modeling for allopatric Strix (Strigiformes: Strigidae) owls in South America: determinants of their distributions and ecological niche‐based processes

Strix (Strigidae) is a worldwide genus of 17 owl species typical of forested habitats, including Rusty‐barred Owls (S. hylophila), Chaco Owls (S. chacoensis), and Rufous‐legged Owls (S. rufipes) in South America. These species are distributed allopatrically, but the ecological traits that determine their distributions remain largely unknown and their phylogenetic relationships are unclear. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to identify variables explaining their distribution patterns and test hypotheses about ecological divergence and conservatism based on niche overlap analysis. For Rusty‐barred Owls and Chaco Owls, climatic factors related to temperature played a major role, whereas a rainfall variable was more important for Rufous‐legged Owls. When niche overlaps were compared, accounting for regional similarities in the habitat available to each species, an ecological niche divergence process was supported for Chaco Owl‐Rusty‐barred Owl and Chaco Owl‐Rufous‐legged Owl, whereas a niche conservatism process was supported for Rusty‐barred Owl‐Rufous‐legged Owl. Different ecological requirements support current species delimitation, but they are in disagreement with the two main hypotheses currently envisaged about their phylogenetic relationships (Chaco Owls as the sister taxa of either Rufous‐legged Owls or Rusty‐barred Owls) and support a new phylogenetic hypothesis (Rufous‐legged Owls as sister taxa of Rusty‐barred Owls). Our findings suggest that speciation of Rusty‐barred Owls and Rufous‐legged Owls was a vicariant event resulting from Atlantic marine transgressions in southern South America in the Miocene, but their niche was conserved because habitat changed little in their respective ranges. In contrast, Chaco Owls diverged ecologically from the other two species as a result of their adaptations to the habitat they currently occupy. Ecological and historical approaches in biogeography can be embedded to explain distribution patterns, and results provided by SDMs can be used to infer historical and ecological processes in an integrative way.     

Division within the North American boreal forest: Ecological niche divergence between the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. minimus)

Sister species that diverged in allopatry in similar environments are expected to exhibit niche conservatism. Using ecological niche modeling and a multivariate analysis of climate and habitat data, I test the hypothesis that the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. mimimus), sister species that breed in the North American boreal forest, show niche conservatism. Three tree species that are important components of breeding territories of both thrush species were combined with climatic variables to create niche models consisting of abiotic and biotic components. Abiotic‐only, abiotic+biotic, and biotic‐only models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) criterion. Abiotic+biotic models had higher AUC scores and did not over‐project thrush distributions compared to abiotic‐only or biotic‐only models. From the abiotic+biotic models, I tested for niche conservatism or divergence by accounting for the differences in the availability of niche components by calculating (1) niche overlap from ecological niche models and (2) mean niche differences of environmental values at occurrence points. Niche background similarity tests revealed significant niche divergence in 10 of 12 comparisons, and multivariate tests revealed niche divergence along 2 of 3 niche axes. The Bicknell's Thrush breeds in warmer and wetter regions with a high abundance of balsam fir (Abies balsamea), whereas Gray‐cheeked Thrush often co‐occurs with black spruce (Picea mariana). Niche divergence, rather than conservatism, was the predominant pattern for these species, suggesting that ecological divergence has played a role in the speciation of the Bicknell's Thrush and Gray‐cheeked Thrush. Furthermore, because niche models were improved by the incorporation of biotic variables, this study validates the inclusion of relevant biotic factors in ecological niche modeling to increase model accuracy.     

Ecological divergence and speciation between lemur (Eulemur) sister species in Madagascar

Understanding ecological niche evolution over evolutionary timescales is crucial to elucidating the biogeographic history of organisms. Here, we used, for the first time, climate‐based ecological niche models (ENMs) to test hypotheses about ecological divergence and speciation processes between sister species pairs of lemurs (genus Eulemur) in Madagascar. We produced ENMs for eight species, all of which had significant validation support. Among the four sister species pairs, we found nonequivalent niches between sisters, varying degrees of niche overlap in ecological and geographic space, and support for multiple divergence processes. Specifically, three sister‐pair comparisons supported the null model that niches are no more divergent than the available background region. These findings are consistent with an allopatric speciation model, and for two sister pairs (E. collaris–E. cinereiceps and E. rufus–E. rufifrons), a riverine barrier has been previously proposed for driving allopatric speciation. However, for the fourth sister pair E. flavifrons–E. macaco, we found support for significant niche divergence, and consistent with their parapatric distribution on an ecotone and the lack of obvious geographic barriers, these findings most strongly support a parapatric model of speciation. These analyses thus suggest that various speciation processes have led to diversification among closely related Eulemur species.     

The ecology of Maesopsis eminii Engl. in tropical Africa

Maesopsis eminii is referred to as one of the most widely distributed African tree species. However, its occurrence in Africa has never been mapped and little is known as to how this species can sustain in different environments. To gain insight into Maesopsis’ ecology, we (i) made a synthesis of its functional trait data from the literature, (ii) investigated phenological patterns using data on four M. eminii trees from Yangambi, DR Congo, (iii) assessed an empirical provenance trial from Uganda on 600 Maesopsis trees and (iv) synthesized geo‐referenced point location maps of Maesopsis entailing WorldClim precipitation and temperature and FAO soils, rainfall and ecological zones for Africa. We found M. eminii to straddle the equator equidistantly in terms of latitude (10.97°N and 10.98°S) covering five forest types where twenty soil types and variable rainfall regimes support complex plant biodiversity. Maesopsis eminii was, however, largely concentrated in the tropical rainforest ecosystem which contains fertile Orthic Ferralsol soils. More than 97% of the point locations were found where annual precipitation was >1000 mm, and 82% occurred where average annual temperature was 22–28°C. Its functional traits, phenology and provenance trial findings explained its occurrence in Africa.     

Rapid chromosomal evolution in the mesic four‐striped grass rat Rhabdomys dilectus (Rodentia,Muridae) revealed by mtDNA phylogeographic analysis

The mesic four‐striped grass rat Rhabdomys dilectus De Winton, 1897 is distributed in mesic regions of southern and eastern Africa. We carried out a molecular and chromosomal study of the northernmost populations of the species to provide insight into the subspecific boundaries identified within the species and to describe its genetic structure in Eastern Africa. Maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and neighbour‐joining methods were used to construct phylogenetic relationships among all the haplotypes belonging to the large part of the species range. Times of divergences were estimated assuming a relaxed molecular clock with two calibration points. We identified three well‐supported clades within R. dilectus. One basal clade corresponding to Rhabdomys d. chakae (2n = 48) is found in South Africa. Two additional sister clades corresponding to R. d. dilectus (2n = 48 and 2n = 46) are allopatrically distributed in southern and northern parts of the species range. Genetic divergence among the three clades is relatively high (ranges 4.2–5.7%). A very divergent new karyotype 2n = 38, FNa = 60 was found in two high‐altitude populations on Mt. Meru and Mt. Kilimanjaro. The karyotype differences consist in three Robertsonian fusions and one whole‐arm reciprocal translocation. Interestingly, the mtDNA phylogeny does not match with the diploid numbers. In fact, the 2n = 38 specimens form a monophyletic group within a clade that includes specimens with the 2n = 46 karyotype that appears as paraphyletic. We estimated the new karyotype originated in peripatric condition during the last phases of the Pleistocene. This study confirms the importance of chromosomal analysis in detecting taxonomic units and cryptic diversity in rodents.     

Palaeo‐islands as refugia and sources of genetic diversity within volcanic archipelagos: the case of the widespread endemic Canarina canariensis (Campanulaceae)

Geographical isolation by oceanic barriers and climatic stability has been postulated as some of the main factors driving diversification within volcanic archipelagos. However, few studies have focused on the effect that catastrophic volcanic events have had on patterns of within‐island differentiation in geological time. This study employed data from the chloroplast (cpDNA haplotypes) and the nuclear (AFLPs) genomes to examine the patterns of genetic variation in Canarina canariensis, an iconic plant species associated with the endemic laurel forest of the Canary Islands. We found a strong geographical population structure, with a first divergence around 0.8 Ma that has Tenerife as its central axis and divides Canarian populations into eastern and western clades. Genetic diversity was greatest in the geologically stable ‘palaeo‐islands’ of Anaga, Teno and Roque del Conde; these areas were also inferred as the ancestral location of migrant alleles towards other disturbed areas within Tenerife or the nearby islands using a Bayesian approach to phylogeographical clustering. Oceanic barriers, in contrast, appear to have played a lesser role in structuring genetic variation, with intra‐island levels of genetic diversity larger than those between‐islands. We argue that volcanic eruptions and landslides after the merging of the palaeo‐islands 3.5 Ma played key roles in generating genetic boundaries within Tenerife, with the palaeo‐islands acting as refugia against extinction, and as cradles and sources of genetic diversity to other areas within the archipelago.     

Molecular data and ecological niche modelling reveal the phylogeographic pattern of Cotinus coggygria (Anacardiaceae) in China's warm‐temperate zone

The phylogeography of common and widespread species helps to elucidate the history of local flora and vegetation. In this study, we selected Cotinus coggygria, a species widely distributed in China's warm‐temperate zone. One chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) region and ecological niche modelling were used to examine the phylogeographic pattern of C. coggygria. The cpDNA data revealed two phylogeographic groups (Southern and Northern) corresponding to the geographic regions. Divergence time analyses revealed that divergence of the two groups occurred at approximately 147,000 years before the present (BP), which coincided with the formation of the downstream area of the Yellow River, indicating that the Yellow River was a weak phylogeographic divide for C. coggygria. The molecular data and ecological niche modelling also indicated that C. coggyria did not experience population expansion after glaciations. This study thus supports the fact that Pleistocene glacial cycles only slightly affected C. coggygria, which survived in situ and occupied multiple localised glacial refugia during glaciations. This finding is contrary to the hypothesis of large‐scale range habitat contraction and retreat into a few main refugia.     

Evolution and island endemism of morphologically cryptic Baetis and Cloeon species (Ephemeroptera,Baetidae) on the Canary Islands and Madeira

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High levels of intraspecific genetic divergences revealed for Antarctic springtails: evidence for small‐scale isolation during Pleistocene glaciation

We examined levels of genetic variability within and among populations of three Antarctic springtail species (Arthropoda: Collembola) and tested the hypothesis that genetic divergences occur among glacially‐isolated habitats. The study was conducted in southern Victoria Land, Ross Dependency, Antarctica, and samples were collected from locations in the vicinity of the Mackay Glacier. We analyzed mtDNA (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I; COI) sequence variability for 97 individuals representing three species (Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni, N = 67; Cryptopygus nivicolus, N = 20; and Antarcticinella monoculata, N = 8). Haplotype diversity and genetic divergences were calculated and used to indicate population variability and also to infer divergence times of isolated populations using molecular clock estimates. Two of the three species showed high levels of genetic divergence. Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni, a widespread and common species, showed 7.6% sequence divergence on opposite sides of the Mackay Glacier. The more range restricted C. nivicolus showed 4.0% divergence among populations. The third species, A. monoculata, was found in only one location. Molecular clock estimates based on sequence divergences suggest that populations separated within the last 4 Mya. We conclude that habitat fragmentation resulting from Pliocene (5 Mya) and Pleistocene (2 Mya to 10 Kya) glaciations has promoted and maintained high levels of diversity among isolated springtail populations on relatively small spatial scales. The region surrounding the Mackay Glacier is likely to have provided refugia for springtail populations during glacial maxima and remains an area of high genetic and species diversity for Collembola within the Ross Sea region.     

Generalist trophic ecology in a changing habitat: The case of the four‐striped mouse in a woody‐encroached savannah

Trophic generalists tolerate greater habitat change than specialists; however, few studies explore how generalist trophic ecology is affected. We established how the trophic ecology of an extreme generalist, Rhabdomys pumilio, changed in relation to a directionally changing woody‐encroached savannah in Eastern Cape, South Africa by investigating (a) foraging behaviour, (b) trophic niche and (c) feedback effects. (a) Giving‐up densities showed that R. pumilio preferred foraging in subcanopy microhabitat during the night as a result of lower thermoregulatory costs, but had similar preferences for sub‐ and intercanopy microhabitats during the day. (b) An isotope analysis revealed that the dietary composition and trophic niche occupied by R. pumilio differed among tree canopy cover levels (0%, 30% and 80%), which appeared to be related to changes in C₄ grass material and invertebrate availability. (c) Artificial seed patches suggested that R. pumilio was a potentially important postdispersal seed predator of the woody‐encroaching species, Vachellia karroo. Thus, an increase in tree canopy cover altered the trophic niche of R. pumilio by reducing foraging costs at night and providing alternative food resources in terms of availability and source. These findings demonstrate how an extreme generalist adapted to human‐induced habitat change through changes in its trophic ecology.     

Niche divergence facilitated by fine‐scale ecological partitioning in a recent cichlid fish adaptive radiation

Ecomorphological differentiation is a key feature of adaptive radiations, with a general trend for specialization and niche expansion following divergence. Ecological opportunity afforded by invasion of a new habitat is thought to act as an ecological release, facilitating divergence, and speciation. Here, we investigate trophic adaptive morphology and ecology of an endemic clade of oreochromine cichlid fishes (Alcolapia) that radiated along a herbivorous trophic axis following colonization of an isolated lacustrine environment, and demonstrate phenotype‐environment correlation. Ecological and morphological divergence of the Alcolapia species flock are examined in a phylogenomic context, to infer ecological niche occupation within the radiation. Species divergence is observed in both ecology and morphology, supporting the importance of ecological speciation within the radiation. Comparison with an outgroup taxon reveals large‐scale ecomorphological divergence but shallow genomic differentiation within the Alcolapia adaptive radiation. Ancestral morphological reconstruction suggests lake colonization by a generalist oreochromine phenotype that diverged in Lake Natron to varied herbivorous morphologies akin to specialist herbivores in Lakes Tanganyika and Malawi.     

Retracing the evolutionary history of Nothofagus in its geo‐climatic context: new developments in the emerging field of phylogeology

Phylogeographic studies have made a significant contribution to the interpretation of genetic lineage distribution in response to climate changes, such as during glaciation events of the Neogene. However, the effects of ancient landscapes associated with global sea level rises, tectonic processes, and climatology driving lineage evolution have been largely overlooked. These effects can be tested in widespread lineages of cold‐tolerant species that have endured cooling, and thus, phylogeographic patterns may reflect large‐scale processes that were not reset by the ice ages. We hereby combine geological evidence from marine sedimentary basins, Andean orogeny, and climatology with molecular dating and statistical phylogeography to infer how geological and climatic processes affected the distribution of lineages in cold‐tolerant Nothofagus species during the Cenozoic. A total of 239 populations along the entire range of all species within the genus Nothofagus (N. antarctica, N. betuloides, N. dombeyi, N. nitida, and N. pumilio) were sampled and analyzed by sequencing three non‐coding regions of the chloroplast. We found 30 chloroplast DNA haplotypes that were geographically structured. Molecular dating calibrated with fossils revealed that ancestral lineages appeared in Eocene/Oligocene, whereas most divergences took place during the Miocene; in turn, Bayesian skyline plots showed that population expansion occurred in the Early Pleistocene (1.5–1 million years ago). Lineage divergence from all wide‐ranging Nothofagus was spatially and temporally concordant with episodic marine transgressions and warmer times in Patagonia during Eocene/Miocene Epochs. Long‐lasting stable raised areas preserved haplotype diversity throughout Patagonia, from where cold‐tolerant taxa expanded their ranges during pre‐Quaternary times. The detailed study of such ancient divergences is novel and allows us to infer the effects of geological processes on distribution patterns of ancient lineages, that is, phylogeology.     

Niche specificity influences gene flow across fine‐scale habitat mosaics in Succulent Karoo plants

While the tempo of diversification in biodiversity hotspots has received much attention, the spatial scale of diversification has often been overlooked. Addressing this deficiency requires understanding the drivers of population divergence and the spatial scales at which they operate in species‐rich clades and ecosystems. South Africa's Succulent Karoo (SK) hotspot provides an excellent system for such research, being both compact (ca. 110,000 km²) and home to spectacular in‐situ radiations, such as the ruschioid Aizoaceae. Here we use GBS to document genetic structure in two co‐occurring ruschioid species, at both coarse (>10 km) and fine (<500 m) spatial scales. Where Ruschia burtoniae shows strong between‐population genetic differentiation and no gene flow, Conophytum calculus shows weak differentiation, with high levels of admixture suggesting recent or ongoing gene flow. Community analysis and transplant experiments reveal that R. burtoniae occupies a narrow, low‐pH edaphic niche, and at scales of a few hundred metres, areas of elevated genetic turnover correspond to patches of edaphically unsuitable habitat. In contrast, C. calculus occupies a broader niche and exhibits isolation‐by‐distance without a habitat effect. We suggest that edaphic specialisation, coupled with highly restricted seed and pollen dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes, has played a major role in driving rapid diversification at small spatial scales in this system. However, the contrasting patterns in our study species show that these factors do not influence all organisms uniformly, being strongly modulated by lineage‐specific traits that influence both the spatial scale of gene flow and habitat specificity.     

Mid‐Holocene decline in African buffalos inferred from Bayesian coalescent‐based analyses of microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA

Genetic studies concerned with the demographic history of wildlife species can help elucidate the role of climate change and other forces such as human activity in shaping patterns of divergence and distribution. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) declined dramatically during the rinderpest pandemic in the late 1800s, but little is known about the earlier demographic history of the species. We analysed genetic variation at 17 microsatellite loci and a 302‐bp fragment of the mitochondrial DNA control region to infer past demographic changes in buffalo populations from East Africa. Two Bayesian coalescent‐based methods as well as traditional bottleneck tests were applied to infer detailed dynamics in buffalo demographic history. No clear genetic signature of population declines related to the rinderpest pandemic could be detected. However, Bayesian coalescent modelling detected a strong signal of African buffalo population declines in the order of 75–98%, starting in the mid‐Holocene (approximately 3–7000 years ago). The signature of decline was remarkably consistent using two different coalescent‐based methods and two types of molecular markers. Exploratory analyses involving various prior assumptions did not seriously affect the magnitude or timing of the inferred population decline. Climate data show that tropical Africa experienced a pronounced transition to a drier climate approximately 4500 years ago, concurrent with the buffalo decline. We therefore propose that the mid‐Holocene aridification of East Africa caused a major decline in the effective population size of the buffalo, a species reliant on moist savannah habitat for its existence.     

Extensive introgressive hybridization within the northern oriole group (Genus Icterus) revealed by three‐species isolation with migration analysis

Until recently, studies of divergence and gene flow among closely‐related taxa were generally limited to pairs of sister taxa. However, organisms frequently exchange genes with other non‐sister taxa. The “northern oriole” group within genus Icterus exemplifies this problem. This group involves the extensively studied hybrid zone between Baltimore oriole (Icterus galbula) and Bullock's oriole (I. bullockii), an alleged hybrid zone between I. bullockii and black‐backed oriole (I. abeillei), and likely mtDNA introgression between I. galbula and I. abeillei. Here, we examine the divergence population genetics of the entire northern oriole group using a multipopulation Isolation‐with‐Migration (IM) model. In accordance with Haldane's rule, nuclear loci introgress extensively beyond the I. galbula–I. bullockii hybrid zone, while mtDNA does not. We found no evidence of introgression between I. bullockii and I. abeillei or between I. galbula and I. abeillei when all three species were analyzed together in a three‐population model. However, traditional pairwise analysis suggested some nuclear introgression from I. abeillei into I. galbula, probably reflecting genetic contributions from I. bullockii unaccounted for in a two‐population model. Thus, only by including all members of this group in the analysis was it possible to rigorously estimate the level of gene flow among these three closely related species.     

Wider sampling reveals a non‐sister relationship for geographically contiguous lineages of a marine mussel

The accuracy of phylogenetic inference can be significantly improved by the addition of more taxa and by increasing the spatial coverage of sampling. In previous studies, the brown mussel Perna perna showed a sister–lineage relationship between eastern and western individuals contiguously distributed along the South African coastline. We used mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (ITS) sequence data to further analyze phylogeographic patterns within P. perna. Significant expansion of the geographical coverage revealed an unexpected pattern. The western South African lineage shared the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) with specimens from Angola, Venezuela, and Namibia, whereas eastern South African specimens and Mozambique grouped together, indicating a non‐sister relationship for the two South African lineages. Two plausible biogeographic scenarios to explain their origin were both supported by the hypotheses‐testing analysis. One includes an Indo‐Pacific origin for P. perna, dispersal into the Mediterranean and Atlantic through the Tethys seaway, followed by recent secondary contact after southward expansion of the western and eastern South African lineages. The other scenario (Out of South Africa) suggests an ancient vicariant divergence of the two lineages followed by their northward expansion. Nevertheless, the “Out of South Africa” hypothesis would require a more ancient divergence between the two lineages. Instead, our estimates indicated that they diverged very recently (310 kyr), providing a better support for an Indo‐Pacific origin of the two South African lineages. The arrival of the MRCA of P. perna in Brazil was estimated at 10 [0–40] kyr. Thus, the hypothesis of a recent introduction in Brazil through hull fouling in wooden vessels involved in the transatlantic itineraries of the slave trade did not receive strong support, but given the range for this estimate, it could not be discarded. Wider geographic sampling of marine organisms shows that lineages with contiguous distributions need not share a common ancestry.     

Current velocity shapes co‐existence patterns among invasive Dikerogammarus species

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE: Cycads in the insular South‐west Pacific: dispersal or vicariance?

Aim Cycads constitute an ancient plant group that is generally believed to disperse poorly. However, one group of cycads (subsection Rumphiae) is thought to have dispersed relatively recently from a Malesian source area westwards to East Africa and eastwards into the Pacific, using a floatation‐facilitating layer in their seeds. We use morphological and allozyme characters to investigate the relationships among the species within this group and to deduce whether the wide distribution was achieved by recent dispersal (as evidenced by high genetic similarity) or more distant vicariance events (high genetic differentiation). Location We examined specimens collected throughout the range of subsection Rumphiae, from East Africa through Southeast Asia to Tonga in the South‐west Pacific. Methods We investigated relationships within subsection Rumphiae of the genus Cycas by analysing 18 variable (11 informative) morphological characters and 22 allozyme loci for seven of the 10 species currently assigned to this taxon. Results Distinctive morphological characters are few and fail to resolve relationships within the group. Allozyme data show that species within this subsection are closely related and suggest that there are two groups within the subsection, one comprising Cycas thouarsii (East Africa) and C. edentata (the Philippines), and the other the remaining species (from Malesia and the Pacific). The Australian species C. silvestris is sister to subsection Rumphiae in the morphological analysis but is closely allied to C. rumphii (nested within the subsection) in the allozyme analysis, suggesting that Rumphiae may be paraphyletic and that characters thought to be taxonomically important may need to be re‐evaluated. Main conclusions Cycads within subsection Rumphiae are closely related, and the wide distribution of this group was probably achieved through relatively recent oceanic dispersal events. Separate events probably account for the dispersal of these cycads into the Pacific and to Africa. The origin and distribution of C. silvestris (Australia) could be explained by a dispersal event from New Guinea or may have resulted from a former land connection between Australia and New Guinea.     

Assessing the frequency and drivers of early‐greening in broad‐leaved woodlands along a latitudinal gradient in southern Africa

Savannas are the only deciduous system where new leaf flush pre‐empts the onset of suitable conditions for growth, a phenological phenomenon known as early‐greening. Limited understanding of the frequency and drivers of the occurrence of early‐greening in southern African savanna trees exists. We aimed to estimate the frequency of early‐greening events across southern Africa and investigated potential environmental drivers of green‐up. We selected and compared seven broad‐leaved woodland sites where Burkea africana was a dominant species using remotely sensed data along a latitudinal gradient from South Africa to Zambia. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values were extracted from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery at each site from January 2002 to June 2014. Using an austral year (July 1st–June 30th), early‐greening was recorded if the green‐up start date occurred prior to the onset date of seasonal rainfall. A latitudinal gradient of early‐green‐up was detected across southern Africa (R² = 0.74) with the two most northerly (Zambian) sites showing the earliest and most consistent green‐up start dates (3 October ± 5.34 days). A strong latitudinal gradient was observed between the variability in the amount of rainfall in the first 6 months of green‐up and the green‐up start dates across southern Africa (R² = 0.92). Photoperiod appeared to play a role in areas where the onset of rainfall commenced late into the austral year. Mean maximum temperatures recorded 10 days prior to green‐up start dates suggested a potential threshold of about 35°C, which could drive early‐greening in the absence of rainfall. Correlations between the proportion of early‐greening years and the above mentioned environmental factors indicated that rainfall variability had the strongest influence over the observed phenological gradient (R² = 0.96). Understanding early‐greening in complex savanna systems is a vital step in furthering predictive phenological models under changing climatic conditions.     

Trans‐Atlantic,trans‐Pacific and trans‐Indian Ocean dispersal in the small Gondwanan Laurales family Hernandiaceae

Aim To investigate the historical biogeography of the pantropical flowering plant family Hernandiaceae (Laurales), which today comprises 62 species in five genera. Location Hernandiaceae occur in Africa (9 species), Madagascar (4), the Neotropics (25), Australia (3), southern China, Indochina, Malesia, and on numerous Pacific Islands (32). These numbers include two widespread species, Hernandia nymphaeifolia, which ranges from East Africa to the Ogasawara Islands and New Caledonia, and Gyrocarpus americanus, thought to have a pantropical range. Methods We sampled 37 species from all genera, the widespread ones with multiple accessions, for a chloroplast DNA matrix of 2210 aligned nucleotides, and used maximum likelihood to infer species relationships. Divergence time estimation relied on an uncorrelated‐rates relaxed molecular clock calibrated with outgroup fossils of Lauraceae and Monimiaceae. Results The deepest split in the family is between a predominantly African–Madagascan–Malesian lineage comprising Hazomalania, Hernandia and Illigera, and an African–Neotropical lineage comprising Gyrocarpus and Sparattanthelium; this split may be 122 (110–134) Myr old. The stem lineages of the five genera date back at least to the Palaeocene, but six splits associated with transoceanic range disjunctions date only to the Oligocene and Miocene, implying long‐distance dispersal. It is inferred that Hernandia beninensis reached the West African islands of São Tomé and Bioko from the West Indies or the Guianas; Hernandia dispersed across the Pacific; and Illigera madagascariensis reached Madagascar from across the Indian Ocean. Main conclusions The disjunct ranges and divergence times of sister clades in the Hernandiaceae are partly congruent with the break‐up of West Gondwana, but mostly with later transoceanic dispersal. An exceptional ability to establish following prolonged oceanic dispersal may be largely responsible for the evolutionary persistence of this small clade.