Landscape context of plantation forests in the conservation of tropical mammals

Plantation forests have been expanding in many tropical and subtropical environments. Howerver, even when they replace less wildlife friendly land uses such as pastures and annual crops, the biodiversity levels of pristine natural habitats often have not been recovered. Here we addressed how the landscape context of plantation forests located in South-eastern Brazil affects species richness and community resilience of medium and large size mammals. The area covered by native habitat fragments surrounding plantation forests is positively related to functional richness, including the presence of species more vulnerable to extinction in fragmented landscapes. In addition, the degree of aggregation of plantation forest stands is negatively related to more vulnerable species. No primates were recorded in our seven plantation forest sites (ranging from 272 to 24,921 ha), even when they were seen in native habitat fragments adjacent to commercial tree stands. Two invasive species (Sus scrofa and Lepus capensis) were recorded in four plantation forest sites. The impoverishment of fauna in plantation forests is due to two factors. First, plantation forests generally are structurally simplified habitats when compared to highly diverse tropical forests. Secondly, the isolation from habitat fragments which act as source of individuals in the landscape precludes the establishment of individual in plantation forest. We also highlighted the management practices to improve the complexity of vegetation in commercial tree stands should be taken cautiously, insofar as reduced productivity per area entails a greater demand for land. Thus, an alternative would be intensify the management of the commercial tree stands for wood production together with the restoration of adjacent areas set aside to conservation and native habitat fragments protection.     

Experimental Native Tree Seedling Establishment for the Restoration of a Mexican Cloud Forest

The cloud forests of Mexico have been degraded and severely fragmented, and urgently require restoration. However, progress with restoration has been constrained by a lack of information concerning the seedling ecology of native tree species. An experiment was therefore conducted to assess the influence of different environmental factors on the seedling survival and growth of four native tree species (Fagus grandifolia var. mexicana, Carpinus caroliniana, Symplocos coccinea, and Quercus acutifolia). The seedlings were established on three sites, in two contrasting environments: inside forest fragments and on adjacent agricultural land. Highly significant differences were recorded in seedling survival and growth among sites, environments, species, and interactions between these factors. Highest survival was recorded for Quercus, which uniquely among the four species displayed the same survival percentage inside and outside the forest. Survival of the other species was higher inside the forest. In contrast, growth rates of all four species were higher outside the forest. The most important cause of mortality outside the forest was desiccation, although significant seedling predation was also observed on two sites. Results indicate that all four species can be established successfully both within forest fragments and in neighboring agricultural areas, emphasizing the scope for forest restoration. However, the interactions observed between species, sites, and environments highlight the importance of accurate species–site matching if optimum rates of growth and survival are to be obtained. Quercus spp. have great potential for establishment on agricultural sites.     

森林植被恢复的理论和实践:用乡土树种重建当地森林--宫胁森林重建法介绍

介绍了国际著名植被生态学家、日本横滨国立大学教授宫胁昭 (Prof.AkiraMiyawaki)创造和倡导的造林法———环境保护林重建法 (即生态造林法 ,简称宫胁造林法 )。本方法的创新和重要之处就是将植被生态学理论应用于森林生态系统恢复并取得成功。该方法依据潜在自然植被和演替理论 ,提倡和强调用乡土树种重建乡土森林植被 (Nativeforestwithnativetrees ) ,目的是能够在较短的时间内恢复当地森林生态系统。用宫胁方法重建环境保护林 ,在日本已经有 60 0多个成功的例子 ,在马来西亚、泰国、巴西、智利和中国等国家用该方法重建热带雨林、常绿阔叶林、落叶阔叶林 ,也有 1 0多个成功实例。宫胁法对于中国的森林植被恢复和重建很有借鉴和帮助     

Integrating ecological and cultural values toward conservation and utilization of shrine/temple forests as urban green space in Japanese cities

In Japan, forests associated with shrines and temples are recognized as important components of urban green space, which can potentially function as centers for ecosystem conservation in rapidly urbanizing Japanese cities. In addition to their ecological value, shrine/temple forests have social value, providing recreational and aesthetic needs to residents of urban areas. We review the historical development of shrine/temple forests in Japan and discuss current conservation issues from both ecological and sociological perspectives. Generally, shrine forests are minimally managed and public access is discouraged, whereas temple forests are intensively managed for public display. Shrines tend to be spatially scattered across the landscape but associated with specific geographical features, whereas temples tend to be clustered. Their wide and random distribution in urban areas suggests that shrine forests can potentially be used as stepping stones in the urban green space network, whereas spatially clustered temple forests can be integrated to form large areas of green space. Species diversity of shrine/temple forests declines with decreasing area. The distribution pattern of species is not completely nested, indicating that although conservation of large forest fragments may be effective for maintaining landscape-level biodiversity, smaller forest fragments and adjacent precincts are sometimes significant because rare species occasionally inhabit them. Active management and ecological restoration, such as removal of invasive species, are also important to maintain the desirable near-natural forest conditions. A working group including the owner, community, regional government, and ecologists should be involved in creating an effective, long-term management plan. Because social and cultural values are diverse, basic ecological studies of shrine/temple forests would contribute a scientific basis that fosters public confidence in the process.     

Resilience of native ant community against invasion of exotic ants after anthropogenic disturbances of forest habitats

The positive association between disturbances and biological invasions is a widely observed ecological pattern in the Anthropocene. Such patterns have been hypothesized to be driven by the superior competitive ability of invaders or by modified environments, as well as by the interaction of these factors. An experimental study that tests these hypotheses is usually less feasible, especially in protected nature areas. An alternative approach is to focus on community resilience over time after the anthropogenic disturbance of habitats. Here, we focused on ant communities within a forest to examine their responses after disturbance over time. We selected the Yanbaru region of northern Okinawa Island, which is a biodiversity hotspot in East Asia. We compared ant communities among roadside environments in forests where the road age differed from 5 to 25 years. We also monitored the ant communities before and after disturbance from forest thinning. We found that the species richness and abundance of exotic ants were higher in recently disturbed environments (roadsides of 5–15 years old roads), where the physical environment was warmer and drier. In contrast, the roadsides of 25‐year‐old roads indicated the potential recovery of the physical environment with cooler and moister conditions, likely owing to regrowth of roadside vegetation. At these sites, there were few exotic ants, except for those immediately adjacent to the road. The population density of the invasive species Technoymex brunneus substantially increased 1–2 years after forest thinning. There was no evidence of the exclusion of native ants by exotic ants that were recorded after disturbance. Our results suggest that local ant communities in the Yanbaru forests have some resilience to disturbance. We suggest that restoration of environmental components is a better strategy for maintaining native ant communities, rather than removing exotic ants after anthropogenic disturbance.     

Novel patch–matrix interactions: patch width influences matrix use by birds

This study investigated the influence of the width of patches of native eucalypt forest on bird occurrence in stands of exotic radiata pine ( Pinus radiata ) forests that surrounded such patches. Boundaries between eucalypt and pine forests were surveyed to examine bird occurrence and species richness at different distances in the pine matrix from eucalypt forest edges. Birds were counted by the area search method within 0.5 ha quadrats at 32 study sites (where sites spanned the boundaries of pine and eucalypt forests). Data were examined using generalised linear mixed models. Species richness and occurrence of particular species in quadrats located within pine forests decreased with increasing distance from eucalypt patches. This resulted, in part, from the fact that several species found in native patches also use pine plantations as additional foraging areas. Species richness decreased more quickly with distance from eucalypt patches in younger than in older pine stands. The width of native forest patches also influenced bird occurrence in adjacent pine forest matrix. Bird species richness decreased more rapidly in exotic plantations adjacent to wide rather than narrow patches of native forest. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have previously reported that dimensions of patches can influence the use of surrounding matrix. We introduce the term "halo effect" for the influence of patch attributes on the differential use of matrix adjacent to native patches. These patterns highlight that conservation efforts in patchy environments should protect not only native patches but also adjacent areas of matrix into which animals extend their home ranges.     

Return of Fire as a Restoration Tool: Long‐Term Effects of Burn Severity on Habitat Use by Mexican Fox Squirrels

After decades of suppression, fire is returning to forests of the western United States through wildfires and prescribed burns. These fires may aid restoration of vegetation structure and processes, which could improve conditions for wildlife species and reduce severe wildfire risk. Understanding response of wildlife species to fires is essential to forest restoration because contemporary fires may not have the same effects as historical fires. Recent fires in the Chiricahua Mountains of southeastern Arizona provided opportunity to investigate long‐term effects of burn severity on habitat selection of a native wildlife species. We surveyed burned forest for squirrel feeding sign and related vegetation characteristics to frequency of feeding sign occurrence. We used radio‐telemetry within fire‐influenced forest to determine home ranges of Mexican fox squirrels, Sciurus nayaritensis chiricahuae, and compared vegetation characteristics within home ranges to random areas available to squirrels throughout burned conifer forest. Squirrels fed in forest with open understory and closed canopy cover. Vegetation within home ranges was characterized by lower understory density, consistent with the effects of low‐severity fire, and larger trees than random locations. Our results suggest that return of low‐severity fire can help restore habitat for Mexican fox squirrels and other native wildlife species with similar habitat affiliations in forests with a historical regime of frequent, low‐severity fire. Our study contributes to an understanding of the role and impact of fire in forest ecosystems and the implications for forest restoration as fire returns to the region.     

Immediate increase in plant species richness after clear‐cutting of boreal herb‐rich forests

Abstract. The flora of clear‐cuttings with soil scarification in forests was compared < 1–2 yr after cutting with that in mature herb‐rich forests in SW Finland. The total and mean numbers of vascular plant species both in the study areas and in the sample plots, were almost double in clear‐cut areas compared to mature forests. Clear‐cuttings and mature forests were distinctly separated by multivariate analyses (DCA). Several dozen species not found in forests were common in clear‐cut areas. Most of them probably belong to the neglected native species pool of early boreal forest succession and are dependent on the long‐term persistent seed bank or effective wind dispersal. It is emphasized that in forests many plant species are confined to the very early stages (< 2 yr) after disturbance. The storage effect of the long‐term persistent seed bank is crucial for the maintenance of plant diversity in boreal forests. Probably a considerable part of the flora of agricultural areas is composed of species that were originally disturbance dependent forest plants. Scarification is beneficial to disturbance dependent plants and may be useful in restoration of populations of species of early succession.     

Passive restoration following ungulate removal in a highly disturbed tropical wet forest devoid of native seed dispersers

Overabundant ungulate populations can alter forests. Concurrently, global declines of seed dispersers may threaten native forest structure and function. On an island largely devoid of native vertebrate seed dispersers, we monitored forest succession for 7 years following ungulate exclusion from a 5‐ha area and adjacent plots with ungulates still present. We observed succession from open scrub to forest and understory cover by non‐native plants declined. Two trees, native Hibiscus tiliaceus and non‐native Leucaena leucocephala, accounted for most forest regeneration, with the latter dominant. Neither species is dependent on animal dispersers nor was there strong evidence that plants dependent on dispersers migrated into the 5‐ha study area. Passive restoration following ungulate removal may facilitate restoration, but did not show promise for fully restoring native forest on Guam. Restoration of native forest plants in bird depopulated areas will likely require active outplanting of native seedlings, control of factors resulting in bird loss, and reintroduction of seed dispersers.     

Frog call transmission in forestry monocultures: Are there drawbacks?

Anuran males emit advertisement calls for the purpose of attracting females and repelling conspecific males. Call transmission is influenced by the acoustics of the propagation environment, including vegetation. Thus, forestry monocultures of non-native trees represent artificial environments that could modify call transmission. These monocultures have substituted large areas of Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil, representing a conservation challenge. Considering this context, we hypothesized that anurans have calls that are less attenuated in their native environment than in forest plantations. To test it, we performed sound transmission experiments using calls of three anuran species native to southern Brazil: Boana bischoffi, B. leptolineata, and Hylodes meridionalis. We compared sound attenuation between the native forest and forestry monocultures (Eucalyptus sp. and Pinus sp. forests), and included distance from the sound source, air temperature, humidity, and vegetation density as cofactors in linear mixed models. Our results show that the advertisement calls of the two tree frogs (Boana) attenuate less in tree plantations than in native forests, while the third species shows either no differences or less attenuation in native forests. Our results can be understood according to differences in natural history and microhabitat use among the studied species. The two tree frog species vocalize perched from vegetation so their calls become better transmitted in forestry monocultures, which have fewer trees than the native forest. On the other hand, H. meridionalis calls from rocks on streams and the propagation is finely tuned to this peculiar microhabitat. We discuss the conservation implications of our findings for anurans and for the Atlantic Forest. Abstract in Portuguese and Spanish are available with online material.     

Co‐benefits of biodiversity and carbon sequestration from regenerating secondary forests in the Philippine uplands: implications for forest landscape restoration

Shifting cultivation is a widespread practice in tropical forested areas that policy makers often regard as the major cause of forest degradation. Secondary fallow forests regrowing after shifting cultivation are generally not viewed as suitable for biodiversity conservation and carbon retention. Drawing upon our research in the Philippines and other relevant case studies, we compared the biodiversity and carbon sequestration in recovering secondary forests after shifting cultivation to other land uses that commonly follow shifting cultivation. Regenerating secondary forests had higher biodiversity than fast growing timber plantations and other restoration options available in the area. Some old plantations, however, provided carbon benefits comparable the old growth forest, although their biodiversity was less than that of the regenerating forests. Our study demonstrates that secondary forests regrowing after shifting cultivation have a high potential for biodiversity and carbon sequestration co‐benefits, representing an effective strategy for forest management and restoration in countries where they are common and where the forest is an integral part of rural people's livelihoods. We discuss the issues and potential mechanisms through which such dynamic land use can be incorporated into development projects that are currently financing the sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of tropical forests.     

Should Forest Restoration with Natural Hybrids Be Allowed?

One of the greatest challenges of forest restoration is the choice of appropriate plant material that is adapted to local environments, provides the desired ecological services, and does not compromise the local biodiversity. Plant restoration programs use native seeds, a mixture of local and introduced seeds of the same species or allopatric species. However, restoration programs rarely use local hybrid individuals if a local species exhibits natural hybridization. Hybridization is an important evolutionary process that can result in new genotypic combinations that might be suited better to the target habitat than the parental species and allow adaptation to rapid environmental change. European forests are generally under strict legal regulations so that only certified seeds can be used for their restoration. The European certification procedure for seeds from forest trees has been devised to commercialize clearly identified species with known adaptation to a given area. Natural hybrids, for which taxonomic status is uncertain and fitness is generally unknown, are excluded, which is not the case of artificial hybrids because they have been previously tested in the field. Here we discuss the pressing need to include natural hybrid populations as a source of certified seeds for restoration purposes. Using the example of two ash species and their well‐adapted hybrids along the Loire River in France, we show why European forest guidelines must be made more flexible to allow the provision of stable ecosystem services.     

Allelopathy: a tool for weed management in forest restoration

Forest restoration uses active management to re-establish natural forest habitat after disturbance. However, competition from early successional species, often aggressively invasive exotic plant species, can inhibit tree establishment and forest regeneration. Ideally, restoration ecologists can plant native tree species that not only establish and grow rapidly, but also suppress exotic competitors. Allelopathy may be a key mechanism by which some native trees could reduce the abundance and impact of exotic species. Allelopathy is a recognized tool for weed management in agriculture and agroforestry, but few studies have considered how allelopathic interactions may aid restoration. Here we introduce the “Homeland Security” hypothesis, which posits that some naïve exotic species may be particularly sensitive to allelochemicals produced by native species, providing a tool to reduce the growth and impacts of invasive exotic species on reforestation. This article explores how exploiting allelopathy in native species could improve restoration success and the re-establishment of natural successional dynamics. We review the evidence for allelopathy in agroforestry systems, and consider its relevance for reforestation. We then illustrate the potential for this approach with a case study of tropical forest restoration in Panama. C₄ grasses heavily invade deforested areas in the Panama Canal watershed, especially Saccharum spontaneum L. We measured the effect of leaf litter from 17 potential restoration tree species on the growth of invasive C₄ grasses. We found that leaf litter from legume trees had a greater inhibitory effect on performance of S. spontaneum than did litter from non-legume trees. However, allelopathic effects varied greatly among species within tree functional groups. Further evaluation of intra- and inter-specific interactions will help to improve our selection of restoration species.     

Is forest landscape restoration socially desirable? A discrete choice experiment applied to the Scandinavian transboundary Fulufjället National Park Area

Using an economic valuation approach, we assessed people's stated preferences for policy aimed at enhancing restoration of functional networks of naturally dynamic boreal forest habitats as a public good. Active landscape restoration can improve the functionality of boreal forest habitats as green infrastructure, which is essential for biodiversity conservation and delivery of multiple ecosystem services that production forests are poor at providing. In contrast, so far designation of protected areas in Fennoscandia has focused on remnant patches of near‐natural forests, and not on forest landscape restoration. We assessed citizens' preferences for forest landscape restoration in a transboundary region primarily managed for sustained‐yield wood production for the forest industry, and which hosts the transboundary Fulufjället National Parks in Sweden and Norway. We conducted a discrete choice experiment by asking Swedish and Norwegian citizens to choose among two options for the Fulufjället area, including (1) extension of passive protection on one side or both sides of the border, by additional area protection and restoration of forest naturalness, and (2) a status quo option. The scenario assumed that extension of the protected forest area would imply a compulsory tax administered bilaterally by the two countries. Just over half of the sample, in both countries expressed willingness to pay for forest landscape restoration. Alternatives that contemplated larger extensions of forest landscape restoration were assigned higher willingness‐to‐pay. Public awareness and support, combined with spatial planning, are necessary for forest landscape restoration to become a viable tool for biodiversity conservation in Scandinavia.     

Long‐term outcomes of forest restoration in an urban park

Creating, restoring, and sustaining forests in urban areas are complicated by habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and degraded soils. Although there is some research on the outcomes of urban reforestation plantings during the first 5 years, there is little research on longer term outcomes. Here, we compare the successional trajectories of restored and unrestored forest sites 20 years after initiating restoration. The sites are located within the Rodman's Neck area of Pelham Bay Park, in the northeast corner of the Bronx in New York City (NYC), U.S.A. Compared with unrestored sites, we saw improvements in species diversity, greater forest structure complexity, and evidence of the regeneration and retention of native tree species in restored sites. In addition, we found differences in restoration outcomes depending on the level of intervention: clearing exotic shrubs and vines and planting native trees and shrubs improved tree diversity and canopy closure to a greater extent than clearing exotics alone, and the mechanical removal of invasive plants after the native plantings further improved some measures of restoration, such as tree species diversity and native tree regeneration. The results of this study suggest that the goal of a sustainable forest ecosystem dominated by native trees and other plant species may not be achievable without continued human intervention on site. In addition, these results indicate that the restoration approach adopted by NYC's reforestation practitioners is moving the site toward a more desirable vegetative community dominated by native species.     

Re‐forestation restores native dominance in an island beetle fauna

Native re‐forestation is a widely used restoration tool, typically undertaken with the expectation that planting native trees will initiate succession processes (including the re‐establishment of native fauna) that will eventually return the ecosystem to a native‐dominated state. Invertebrate groups can be used to assess restoration progress, as their life history traits enable them to respond more rapidly to environmental change than many other organisms. In this study, we assessed beetle responses to re‐forestation. Using two trapping methods (flight intercept traps and pitfall traps), we compared beetle assemblages in exotic pasture (pre‐restoration state), <10‐year‐old planted native forest (restoration intervention) and approximately 40‐year‐old unmanaged regenerating native forest (reference state). Analysis of the flight intercept‐trapped beetles suggests that re‐forestation has initiated a transition from an exotic‐dominated pasture fauna toward a native‐dominated fauna: in planted forests, 75% of all flight‐intercept‐trapped beetles were native (compared with 22% in pasture and 87% in unmanaged forest). Flight intercept‐trapped beetles also had higher native diversity and abundance in both forest types than in pasture. Pitfall‐trapped beetle species were predominantly native in both forest types, but there were few statistically significant differences between the forests and pasture in the pit‐fall trap data set. Both trapping methods detected significant compositional differences between the beetle assemblages in planted forest and unmanaged forest. Replanting native forest has increased native beetle diversity, abundance, and dominance (compared with the pre‐restoration state), but convergence with the unmanaged reference forest has not yet been achieved.     

Changes in phosphorus availability and nutrient status of indigenous forest fragments in Pastoral New Zealand Hill country

Indigenous forest fragments in rural New Zealand are increasingly valued as reservoirs of native biodiversity. Most forest species are adapted to soils of low phosphorus (P) availability, but fragments are often intermingled with managed pastures and subjected to unintended P inputs from aerial topdressing, which may compromise their long-term sustainability. Phosphorus availability and other nutrients in forest fragments were compared with adjacent fertilised pasture and reference forest areas not receiving fertiliser additions. Inorganic (H₂SO₄ soluble) P and available (Olsen) P were approximately ten times greater in fragment forest soils than reference forest soils, while total P was two times greater. The strong linear relationship between total P and cadmium, an element contained in rock phosphate fertilisers, suggested that the increased P levels in fragment forests could be attributed to P from aerial topdressing. Comparison of foliar N:P ratios show that P is being conserved in reference forests but not in fragment forest. A 5-fold increase in P mineralisation rate in forest fragments high in available P and a significant relationship between total P in forests and soil respiration suggests P availability may be limiting microbial activity in these forest systems. Forest Fragments also had base saturation and Ca, Mg, and K levels twice that of reference forests. Increased nutrient levels have been shown to alter plant successional dynamics and community composition, and raise concerns over future successional patterns and long-term stability of these forest fragments.     

Linking scorpion (Arachnida: Scorpiones) assemblage with fragment restoration in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Habitat loss due to forest degradation can induce changes in species richness due to variation in species susceptibility to environmental stress. This is particularly important for species with highly specific microhabitats, such as scorpions that inhabit forest habitats. In this study, the richness and abundance of these arachnids were compared between an old-growth (mature) and secondary (65 years under natural restoration) forests. Seasonal influence was also evaluated by comparing diversity between dry and wet seasons. The animals were collected through nocturnal active search using UV lamps and pitfall traps in both areas (old-growth and secondary). Both environments showed similar breast heights of trees, litter depth, litter dry mass, and understory density, indicating a high level of restoration. Scorpion diversity (characterized by Tityus pusillus, T. neglectus, T. brazilae, Bothriurus asper, and Ananteris mauryi) and abundance were not influenced by the different historical usage of both areas. In contrast, the abundance of these arachnids was highly affected by rain regimes, and increased during the dry season. These results suggest that 65 years was a sufficient time period for restoration, making it possible to maintain similar scorpion assemblages in both environments.     

Lowland tapirs facilitate seed dispersal in degraded Amazonian forests

The forests of southeastern Amazonia are highly threatened by disturbances such as fragmentation, understory fires, and extreme climatic events. Large‐bodied frugivores such as the lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris) have the potential to offset this process, supporting natural forest regeneration by dispersing a variety of seeds over long distances to disturbed forests. However, we know little about their effectiveness as seed dispersers in degraded forest landscapes. Here, we investigate the seed dispersal function of lowland tapirs in Amazonian forests subject to a range of human (fire and fragmentation) and natural (extreme droughts and windstorms) disturbances, using a combination of field observations, camera traps, and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data. Tapirs travel and defecate more often in degraded forests, dispersing much more seeds in these areas [9,822 seeds per ha/year (CI_95% = 9,106; 11,838)] than in undisturbed forests [2,950 seeds per ha/year (CI_95% = 2,961; 3,771)]. By effectively dispersing seeds across disturbed forests, tapirs may contribute to natural forest regeneration—the cheapest and usually the most feasible way to achieve large‐scale restoration of tropical forests. Through the dispersal of large‐seeded species that eventually become large trees, such frugivores also contribute indirectly to maintaining forest carbon stocks. These functions may be critical in helping tropical countries to achieve their goals to maintain and restore biodiversity and its ecosystem services. Ultimately, preserving these animals along with their habitats may help in the process of natural recovery of degraded forests throughout the tropics. Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.     

Assessing the areas under risk of invasion within islands through potential distribution modelling: The case of Pittosporum undulatum in São Miguel, Azores

Non-indigenous plant species have been frequently reported as successful invaders in island environments, changing plant community composition and structure. This is the case of the sweet pittosporum (Pittosporum undulatum), native from Australia, which is one of the most successful plant invaders in the Azores archipelago. Data extracted from recent forestry inventories were used to model and map the potential distribution of P. undulatum in São Miguel, the larger island of the Azores. Current distribution of P. undulatum is related to climate, altitude and some human activity effects. Further analysis of the areas under risk of invasion showed that protected areas are under potential threat, although only a few native forest remnants seem to be threatened due to future expansion of P. undulatum, since the current distribution of these native communities has been reduced due to clearing and competition with invasive plants. We discuss the threats that any further expansion of the species will represent for low-altitude native forests, as well as the utility of species distribution models in the assessment of the areas under risk of invasion.