Mass Mortality of Coral Reef Ascidians Following the 1997/1998 El Niño Event

In April/May each year from 1995 to 2000, ascidians were sampled randomly with 35 1m² quadrats from three different reef habitats (intertidal reef tops, coastal reef walls and shallow-bank reefs) at four replicate localities (Praia do Forte, Itacimirim, Guarajuba and Abai) in northern Bahia (Brazil). As the sampling period included the 1997/1998 El Niño event, the most severe on record, for the first time these results allow a quantitative assessment of the impact of this major environmental stressor on the biodiversity of associated coral reef ascidians. Across all reef habitats, 22 ascidian species were recorded from three different orders (Aplousobranchia, Phlebobranchia and Stolidobranchia). After El Niño, all species showed significantly altered densities (ANOVA, F=602.90, p<0.0001); many species were absent from the reefs within 2 years of the El Niño period, but densities of Lissoclinum perforatum (all reefs) and Echinoclinum verrilli (subtidal reefs) increased significantly from 1998 onwards. Univariate and multivariate analyses confirmed that significant changes in assemblage composition had occurred. BIOENV analysis identified turbidity, mean temperature and cloud cover as the main factors best explaining these assemblage changes. Our results suggest that although the 1997/1998 El Niño had a differential effect on the species contributing to the ascidian assemblage of Brazilian coral reefs, most species disappeared and those remaining are likely to enhance reef degradation through their bioeroding activities.     

Phytoplankton chlorophyte structure as related to ENSO events in a saline lowland river (Salado River,Buenos Aires,Argentina)

We analyzed the phytoplankton present in the lower sector of the Salado River (Buenos Aires, Argentina) for 10 years (1995–2005) and detected significant changes occurring in chlorophyte abundance and species richness during La Niña event (1998–1999), which period was analyzed throughout the entire basin (main stream and tributaries). We compared the physicochemical and biologic variables between two El Niño–La Niña–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periods – El Niño (March 1997–January 1998) and La Niña (May 1998–May 1999) – to identify possible indicators of a relationship between climatic anomalies and chlorophyte performance. Chlorophyte density increased during the La Niña. Under normal or extreme hydrologic conditions, mobile (Chlamydomonas spp.) and nonmobile (Monoraphidium spp.) chlorophytes codominated. These species belonged to Reynolds's functional groups X1 and X2, those typical of nutrient‐enriched environments. Comparative analyses between El Niño and La Niña periods indicated significant differences in physicochemical (K⁺, dissolved polyphenols, particulate reactive phosphorus, alkalinity, pH) and biologic (species diversity and richness, phytoplankton and chlorophyte total densities) variables between the two periods at all basin sites. During the La Niña condition, species richness was greater owing to interconnected shallow lakes and drainage‐channel inputs, while the Shannon diversity index was lower because of the high abundance values of Monoraphidium minutum. A detailed analysis of the chlorophytes in the entire basin, indicated that changes in density and species dominance occurred on a regional scale although diverse chlorophyte assemblages were identified in the different sectors of the Salado River basin. After La Niña event, the entire basin had the potential to revert to the previous density values, showing the resilience to global environmental changes and the ability to reestablish the general conditions of stability.     

The effects of El Niño–La Niña on reproductive parameters of elephant seals feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea

Aim To assess the impacts of El Niño–La Niña events on the pup weaning mass and diet of female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, and to understand the ecological processes that drive these impacts. Location Atlantic southern elephant seal weaning mass and diet were measured at King George Island (62º14′ S, 58º30′ W). Feeding areas for pregnant female seals from King George Island are located west of Alexander Island in the Bellingshausen Sea. Methods Data on weaning mass were collected between 1985 and 1994 during the breeding season (September–November). Moulting females were anaesthetized and cephalopod beaks were isolated and identified from stomach contents obtained from stomach lavages. Sea‐surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data for the ‘El Niño 3.4’ geographical region (5º N–5º S, 120º W–170º W) were used to define El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event years (grouped as El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) as well as the strength of each ENSO event year. Using data from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction, temperature, sea ice concentration and atmospheric pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were calculated from March to August, corresponding to the feeding period of pregnant female seals. Results Positive temperature anomalies and negative pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were observed during La Niña years and negative temperature anomalies and positive pressure anomalies during El Niño years. These data correlate with sea ice concentration anomalies, which are highly negative during La Niña years and highly positive during El Niño years. Warm temperature conditions in the Bellingshausen Sea during La Niña years are strongly related to both higher weaning mass in elephant seals and to an increase in squid beaks in the stomach contents of females. Main conclusions It is possible that higher elephant seal weaning masses in La Niña years correlate with warmer waters in the Bellingshausen Sea leading to the rapid growth of squid and their more frequent descents to depths frequented by elephant seals. This results in increased predation by pregnant females, leading to a greater mass among weaned pups. This hypothesis may guide future research about interactions between climate and the marine biosphere.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan‐tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982–1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997–1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970–2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970–2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño‐stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10–15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near‐term future climate‐change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.     

Spatial and temporal variation in the diet of the Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus in waters off the coast of British Columbia,Canada

Variation in the diet of the Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus was examined in three years (2009–2011) at four sites in British Columbia, Canada. There were 12 major taxa of prey in diets, eight of which were Crustacea, with copepods being by far the dominant taxon in all 12 site‐years. Of the 22 copepod taxa recorded, only Calanus marshallae and Pseudocalanus spp. occurred in all collections, and these two calanoid species dominated diets in terms of frequency of occurrence and total numbers of prey (Pseudocalanus spp. in most collections), and total prey biomass (C. marshallae in all collections). Based on an index of relative importance, C. marshallae was the primary prey at the two southerly sampling sites (Pine and Triangle Islands) and Pseudocalanus spp. at the two northerly sites (Lucy Island and S'G ang Gwaay). Based on an index of dietary overlap, the species composition of the copepod component of A. hexapterus diets overlapped very strongly at the northerly and the southerly pairs of sites in both a cold‐water La Niña year (2009) and a warm‐water El Niño year (2010), but overall there was more homogeneity amongst all four sites in the La Niña year.     

Spatial refuges and associational defenses promote harmful blooms of the alga Caulerpa sertularioides onto coral reefs

Extreme population fluctuations, or outbreaks, are driven by interacting processes that are often more complex than isolated changes in consumer or resource control. Blooms of the macroalga Caulerpa sertularioides in the eastern tropical Pacific overgrew and killed reef-building corals, with blooms onto reefs corresponding to cool La Niña phases of inter-decadal fluctuations of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We quantified factors responsible for the maintenance of C. sertularioides patches in off-reef areas, namely an associational mutualism with an epiphytic cyanobacteria (Lyngbya majuscula), coupled with spatial refuges at the scales of individual thalli and habitat. Maintenance of near reef algal populations with a strong response to nutrient addition showed that these populations were primed to bloom onto reefs in response to enhanced nutrient delivery, such as those potentially associated with La Niña conditions. However, our experiments demonstrated that no single factor related to consumer or resource control was likely to stimulate bloom formation in isolation. Rather, we propose a novel model of reef bloom formation where off-reef blooms are sustained by processes reducing consumer control, and then bloom onto reefs through an interaction between increased allochthonous nutrient input and an uncoupling of consumer control by an association with epiphytic cyanobacteria.     

A boundary current drives synchronous growth of marine fishes across tropical and temperate latitudes

Entrainment of growth patterns of multiple species to single climatic drivers can lower ecosystem resilience and increase the risk of species extinction during stressful climatic events. However, predictions of the effects of climate change on the productivity and dynamics of marine fishes are hampered by a lack of historical data on growth patterns. We use otolith biochronologies to show that the strength of a boundary current, modulated by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, accounted for almost half of the shared variance in annual growth patterns of five of six species of tropical and temperate marine fishes across 23° of latitude (3000 km) in Western Australia. Stronger flow during La Niña years drove increased growth of five species, whereas weaker flow during El Niño years reduced growth. Our work is the first to link the growth patterns of multiple fishes with a single oceanographic/climate phenomenon at large spatial scales and across multiple climate zones, habitat types, trophic levels and depth ranges. Extreme La Niña and El Niño events are predicted to occur more frequently in the future and these are likely to have implications for these vulnerable ecosystems, such as a limited capacity of the marine taxa to recover from stressful climatic events.     

Climate fluctuation effects on breeding of blue penguins (Eudyptula minor)

Abstract

El Niño and La Niña climate perturbations alter sea currents and food availability for seabirds in many areas of the world. This changes their breeding success and mortality. Blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) breeding success is dependent upon whether one or two clutches per season are laid, and the hatching and fledging success of these clutches. This study uses six years of data from five blue penguin breeding colonies, three from Taiaroa Head, Otago Peninsula and two from Oamaru, to examine whether annual variation in breeding success correlates with El Niño/La Niña perturbations. When La Niña conditions prevailed, penguins started breeding later, and there was a lower proportion of double breeders than in El Niño and normal years. The probability of a newly hatched chick surviving to fledging was also dependent on whether large‐scale climatic conditions prevailed, whereas hatching success and overall breeding success (number of fledged chicks per breeding pair) showed no correlation with climate perturbations.     

Moisture status during a strong El Niño explains a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit

Growing evidence suggests short-duration climate events may drive community structure and composition more directly than long-term climate means, particularly at ecotones where taxa are close to their physiological limits. Here we use an empirical habitat model to evaluate the role of microclimate during a strong El Niño in structuring a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit and composition in Hawai‘i. We interpolate climate surfaces, derived from a high-density network of climate stations, to permanent vegetation plots. Climatic predictor variables include (1) total rainfall, (2) mean relative humidity, and (3) mean temperature representing non-El Niño periods and a strong El Niño drought. Habitat models explained species composition within the cloud forest with non-El Niño rainfall; however, the ecotone at the cloud forest’s upper limit was modeled with relative humidity during a strong El Niño drought and secondarily with non-El Niño rainfall. This forest ecotone may be particularly responsive to strong, short-duration climate variability because taxa here, particularly the isohydric dominant Metrosideros polymorpha, are near their physiological limits. Overall, this study demonstrates moisture’s overarching influence on a tropical montane ecosystem, and suggests that short-term climate events affecting moisture status are particularly relevant at tropical ecotones. This study further suggests that predicting the consequences of climate change here, and perhaps in other tropical montane settings, will rely on the skill and certainty around future climate models of regional rainfall, relative humidity, and El Niño.     

El Niño,Host Plant Growth,and Migratory Butterfly Abundance in a Changing Climate

In the wet forests of Panama, El Niño typically brings a more prolonged and severe dry season. Interestingly, many trees and lianas that comprise the wet forests increase their productivity as a response to El Niño. Here, we quantify the abundance of migrating Marpesia chiron butterflies over 17 yr and the production of new leaves of their hostplants over 9 yr to test the generality of the El Niño migration syndrome, i.e., whether increased abundance of migrating insects and productivity of their food plants are associated with El Niño and La Niña events. We find that the quantity of M. chiron migrating across the Panama Canal was directly proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the Pacific Ocean, which characterizes El Niño and La Niña events. We also find that production of new leaves by its larval host trees, namely Brosimum alicastrum, Artocarpus altilis, and Ficus citrifolia, was directly proportional to the SST anomaly, with greater leaf flushing occurring during the period of the annual butterfly migration that followed an El Niño event. Combining these and our previously published results for the migratory butterfly Aphrissa statira and its host lianas, we conclude that dry season rainfall and photosynthetically active radiation can serve as primary drivers of larval food production and insect population outbreaks in Neotropical wet forests, with drier years resulting in enhanced plant productivity and herbivore abundance. Insect populations should closely track changes in both frequency and amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with climate change.     

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on avian breeding phenology

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.

     

Analysis of Four Macroalgal Assemblages along the Pacific Mexican Coast during and after the 1997–98 El Niño

We examined the changes in four intertidal macroalgal assemblages sampled at 3-month intervals during and after the 1997–98 El Niño. The assemblages were analyzed using several numerical analyses (specific richness, H′ diversity) and multivariate techniques (ANOSIM, cluster, and MDS analyses). During El Niño 1997–98, the water temperature in the sampled zone was almost 5°C above the long-term mean. The apparent impact of this factor was greatest in winter–spring 1998. Our results suggest that El Niño influenced the structure of these assemblages in four different ways: (a) El Niño was associated with number of species (lowest in 1998) and H′ diversity, which increased in the winter of 1999, when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was inactive, from 1.2 to 2.3. (b) The average biomass of the macroalgae was significantly greater in the ENSO year (139 g dry weight/m²) than in the non-ENSO year (42 g dry weight/m²) (c) El Niño conditions were associated with a high population abundance of species of tropical affinity, such as Agardhiella tenera (22.05 g dry weight/m² in 1998 versus 0.7 g dry weight/m² in 1999), Amphiroa misakiensis (32 versus 1.1), Caulerpa sertularoides (15.35 versus 0), Padina durvillaei (9.2 versus 0.2), Jania capillacea (4.1 versus 0), and Jania mexicana (1.5 versus 0). In 1999, other species with a more temperate affinity appeared, such as Laurencia pacifica (0.12 versus 8.76 g/m²) and Colpomenia sinuosa (0 versus 4.8). (d) The multivariate techniques showed that differences among the structure of the four assemblages were more evident in 1999. The greatest homogeneity was detected during ENSO winter–spring, which suggests a communitywide change consistent with the El Niño event.     

Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events on the Distribution of Wintering Raptors

Abstract We report the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the distribution and abundance of 3 raptor species at continental, regional, and landscape scales. We correlated values from the southern oscillation index (SOI), an index of ENSO phase and strength, with Christmas Bird Count data over a 30-year period. We investigated the relationship between the SOI and winter raptor distributions at 3 spatial scales: continental (central United States), regional (TX, USA), and landscape (3 roadside transects within TX). At the continental scale, ENSO events resulted in regional shifts for American kestrel (Falco sparverius), northern harrier (Circus cyaneus), and red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) winter abundances. As expected, these shifts were northward during El Niño (warm) winters, and southward for red-tailed hawks and northern harriers during La Niña (cold) winters. Within Texas, northern harrier distributions shifted towards arid west Texas during wet El Niño winters but were restricted to mesic coastal Texas during dry La Niña winters. Red-tailed hawk abundance increased in eastern Texas during La Niña winters responding to cooler than normal temperatures throughout the northern Midwest. Data from local roadside transects over a 3-year period encompassing 2 El Niño winters and one La Niña winter supported the abundance patterns revealed by continental and regional data, and added evidence that fluctuations in winter abundances result from demographic pulses as well as spatial shifts for wintering populations. This study underscores the need for long-term monitoring at both local and regional spatial scales in order to detect changes in continental populations. Short-term or local studies would have erroneously assumed local population declines or increases associated with ENSO events, rather than facultative movements or demographic pulses supported by this study.     

El Niño,Climate, and Cholera Associations in Piura,Peru, 1991–2001: A Wavelet Analysis

In Peru, it was hypothesized that epidemic cholera in 1991 was linked to El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. While previous studies demonstrated an association in 1997–1998, using cross-sectional data, they did not assess the consistency of this relationship across the decade. Thus, how strong or variable an El Niño–cholera relationship was in Peru or whether El Niño triggered epidemic cholera early in the decade remains unknown. In this study, wavelet and mediation analyses were used to characterize temporal patterns among El Niño, local climate variables (rainfall, river discharge, and air temperature), and cholera incidence in Piura, Peru from 1991 to 2001 and to estimate the mediating effects of local climate on El Niño–cholera relationships. The study hypothesis is that El Niño-related connections with cholera in Piura were transient and interconnected via local climate pathways. Overall, our findings provide evidence that a strong El Niño–cholera link, mediated by local hydrology, existed in the latter part of the 1990s but found no evidence of an El Niño association in the earlier part of the decade, suggesting that El Niño may not have precipitated cholera emergence in Piura. Further examinations of cholera epicenters in Peru are recommended to support these results in Piura. For public health planning, the results may improve existing efforts that utilize El Niño monitoring for preparedness during future climate-related extremes in the region.     

Prokaryotic community dynamics and nitrogen-cycling genes in an oxygen-deficient upwelling system during La Niña and El Niño conditions

Dissolved oxygen regulates microbial distribution and nitrogen cycling and, therefore, ocean productivity and Earth's climate. To date, the assembly of microbial communities in relation to oceanographic changes due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains poorly understood in oxygen minimum zones (OMZ). The Mexican Pacific upwelling system supports high productivity and a permanent OMZ. Here, the spatiotemporal distribution of the prokaryotic community and nitrogen-cycling genes was investigated along a repeated transect subjected to varying oceanographic conditions associated with La Niña in 2018 and El Niño in 2019. The community was more diverse during La Niña and in the aphotic OMZ, dominated by the Subtropical Subsurface water mass, where the highest abundances of nitrogen-cycling genes were found. The largest proportion of the Gulf of California water mass during El Niño provided warmer, more oxygenated, and nutrient-poor waters towards the coast, leading to a significant increase of Synechococcus in the euphotic layer compared with the opposite conditions during La Niña. These findings suggest that prokaryotic assemblages and nitrogen genes are linked to local physicochemical conditions (e.g. light, oxygen, nutrients), but also to oceanographic fluctuations associated with ENSO phases, indicating the crucial role of climate variability in microbial community dynamics in this OMZ.     

El Niño and related monsoon drought signals in 523-year-long ring width records of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) trees from south India

We present a 523-year (A.D. 1481–2003) tree-ring width index chronology of Teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) from Kerala, Southern India, prepared from three forest sites. Dendroclimatological investigations indicate a significant positive relationship between the tree-ring index series and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and related global parameters like the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A higher frequency of occurrence of low tree growth is observed in years of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall (droughts) associated with El Niño since the late 18th century. Prior to that time, many low tree growth years are detected during known El Niño events, probably related to deficient Indian monsoon rainfall. The general relationship between ISMR and El Niño is known to be negative and the spatial correlations between our Kerala tree-ring chronology and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Niño regions follow similar patterns as those for ISMR. This relationship indicates strong ENSO-related monsoon signals in the tree-ring records. These tree-ring chronologies with a high degree of sensitivity to monsoon climate are useful tools to understand the vagaries of monsoon rainfall prior to the period of recorded data.     

Grazing effects of the periwinkle <Emphasis Type="Italic">Echinolittorina</Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">peruviana</Emphasis> at a central Peruvian high rocky intertidal

Echinolittorina peruviana is the most common gastropod in the high intertidal zone of Peru, representing more than 80% of the individuals present at that zone. Experimental removal of snails was used to evaluate their effects on (a) abundance of epilithic biofilm, (b) barnacle recruitment, and (c) abundance of macroalgae under “normal” conditions of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Experiments were carried out from October 2005 to April 2007 at two intertidal levels of a semi-protected rocky shore of central Peru. Results demonstrated that E. peruviana is able to control biofilm abundance and barnacle recruitment at both heights investigated, with marked effects in the lower zone. Erect macroalgae (Ulva spp. and Gelidium spp.) were less affected by grazing; but negative effects were observed on macroalgal crusts. Season and physical stress seem to play a more important role in the abundance of macroalgae in the high intertidal. Our results are similar to those reported elsewhere for high shore littorinids and represent baseline data to understand how the role of intertidal consumers will vary under the cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) phases of ENSO on these shores.     

Influence of precipitation seasonality on piñon pine cellulose δD values

The influence of seasonal to interannual climate variations on cellulose hydrogen isotopic composition (δD) was assessed by analysing tree rings and needles of piñon pine (Pinus edulis and P. monophylla). Sites spanned a gradient of decreasing summer precipitation, from New Mexico to Arizona to Nevada. Tree rings were divided into earlywood, latewood and whole‐year increments, and annual cohorts of needles were collected. The study period (1989–96) included two La Niña events (1989, 1996) and a prolonged El Niño event (1991–95). Winter and spring moisture conditions were strongly related to October–March Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in New Mexico and Arizona, with above‐average precipitation occurring in El Niño years. Wood δD values at these sites were correlated with winter and spring moisture conditions. Needle δD values were correlated with summer moisture conditions in New Mexico and with winter moisture and SOI in Arizona. Low cellulose δD values observed from 1991 to 1993 in both wood and needles occurred during wet El Niño years, whereas high δD values in needles were present during the dry, La Niña years of 1989 and 1996. North‐eastern Nevada does not receive precipitation anomalies related to ENSO, and thus cellulose δD values did not reflect the ENSO pattern observed at the other sites. Cellulose δD values were strongly, inversely correlated with relative humidity variations at all sites, as predicted by a mechanistic model. Contrary to predictions from the same model and observations from more mesic areas, time series of cellulose δD values were not directly correlated with interannual or seasonal variations in precipitation δD values or temperature at any of the sites. On a regional basis, however, mean δD values in needles and wood were correlated with mean annual temperature and δD values of precipitation. This suggests that temporal averaging may bias relationships between biological systems and climate.     

Monitoring and predictive mapping of floristic biodiversity along a climatic gradient in ENSO's terrestrial core region,NW Peru

The tropical dry forests of NW Peru are heavily shaped by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where especially El Niño brings rain to arid to semi-arid areas. However, the resulting effects on biodiversity patterns remain largely unknown as well as the effect of environmental variables on the floristic composition under varying rainfall patterns. Therefore, we studied the spatio-temporal effects of different ENSO episodes on floristic biodiversity along a climatic gradient ranging from the coastal desert to the Andean foothills. We sampled 50 vegetation plots in four years representing different ENSO episodes. To highlight the spatio-temporal changes in floristic composition and beta diversity across ENSO episodes, we predicted ordination scores with a Generalized Additive Model. We applied variation partitioning to test if topographic or edaphic variables gained in importance during more humid ENSO episodes. Additionally, we executed an irrigation–fertilization experiment to quantify the beneficial effects of the water–nutrient interaction under different simulated ENSO rainfall scenarios. Plant species richness increased under humid conditions during the humid La Niña (2012) and the moderate El Niño (2016), and slightly decreased under the very humid conditions during the coastal El Niño (2017). The spatial prediction revealed that specific vegetation formations became more pronounced with increasing water input, but that a large water surplus led to the disruption of the strict order along the climatic gradient. Edaphic and topographic variables gained in importance with increased water availability (2012 and 2016), however, this effect was not further amplified under very wet conditions (2017). The experiment showed that plant cover under Super Niño conditions was three times higher when fertilized. Overall, our spatial predictions concede detailed insights into spatio-temporal ecosystem dynamics in response to varying rainfall caused by different ENSO episodes while the results of the experiment can support farmers regarding a sustainable agrarian management.