Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO₂ emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China''s development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.     

A Study of Energy Consumption and Exhaust Emissions from Beijing's Civil Vehicles from Years 2008 to 2020

The number of Beijing's civil vehicles is growing rapidly due to the great support of the automobile industry and the Chinese government and the increasing average per capita income of China's people. Exhaust emissions from vehicles have already become the main source of Beijing's air pollution. Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), this article predicts the energy consumption and exhaust emissions from Beijing's civil vehicles. Also, we estimated the reduction potentials of China's new fuel consumption standards and exhaust pollutants standards that will be implemented from 2008 to 2020. Two scenarios were developed: “Business as Usual” (BAU) and “New Standard” (NS). In the BAU scenario, the Chinese government would do nothing to improve the fuel consumption standards and exhaust pollutants standards in the future. In the NS scenario, the Chinese government would implement more strict fuel consumption standards and exhaust pollutants standards for Beijing's civil vehicles. By comparing the results of the two scenarios for year 2020, the energy consumption will experience a reduction of 7.8%, and the exhaust pollutants CO, HC, NO_X, PM, and the emissions of CO₂ would decrease by 43.3%, 36.4%, 60.3%, 81.2%, and 7.8%, respectively.     

Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg,Germany

Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government.The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO₂ savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials.In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification.     

Projected changes in the organic carbon stocks of cropland mineral soils of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070

In this paper, we use the Rothamsted Carbon Model to estimate how cropland mineral soil carbon stocks are likely to change under future climate, and how agricultural management might influence these stocks in the future. The model was run for croplands occurring on mineral soils in European Russia and the Ukraine, representing 74 Mha of cropland in Russia and 31 Mha in the Ukraine. The model used climate data (1990–2070) from the HadCM3 climate model, forced by four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios representing various degrees of globalization and emphasis on economic vs. environmental considerations. Three land use scenarios were examined, business as usual (BAU) management, optimal management (OPT) to maximize profit, and soil sustainability (SUS) in which profit was maximized within the constraint that soil carbon must either remain stable or increase. Our findings suggest that soil organic carbon (SOC) will be lost under all climate scenarios, but less is lost under the climate scenarios where environmental considerations are placed higher than purely economic considerations (IPCC B1 and B2 scenarios) compared with the climate associated with emissions resulting from the global free market scenario (IPCC A1FI scenario). More SOC is lost towards the end of the study period. Optimal management is able to reduce this loss of SOC, by up to 44% compared with business as usual management. The soil sustainability scenario could be run only for a limited area, but in that area was shown to increase SOC stocks under three climate scenarios, compared with a loss of SOC under business as usual management in the same area. Improved agricultural soil management will have a significant role to play in the adaptation to, and mitigation of, climate change in this region. Further, our results suggest that this adaptation could be realized without damaging profitability for the farmers, a key criteria affecting whether optimal management can be achieved in reality.     

辽河三角洲滨海湿地景观规划各预案对指示物种生境适宜性的影响

运用景观生态决策与评价支持系统（LEDESS）对辽河三角洲的3个景观规划预案,即湿地调整,生境管理和农业开发可能导致的地表覆盖物,自然生态单元等立地环境以及保护物种生境适宜性等区域生态后果进行了评估,并与现状进行了对比,模拟结果表明,预案A通过湿地调整措施不仅补偿了芦苇湿地的损失,还将部分不适宜生境和边境生境转变核心生境,相当程度上优化了保护物种丹顶鹤和黑嘴鸥的生境质量,预案B通过一系列生境管理措施,减轻了生境破碎化因素的影响,从而也显著改善了丹顶鹤生境质量,对黑嘴鸥生境质量也有一定改善,预宁C大规模农业开发如能控制一定规模（8000hm2)并采取一定合理模式（滚动开发）,能相当程度上减轻农业开发对物种生境的影响,即使不采取生境补偿措施,对丹顶鹤,黑嘴鸥核心生境也不会有破坏性的影响,模拟结果还表明,区域人类活动导致的生境破碎化是对丹顶鹤生境质量重要的干扰因子,而滩涂农业开发和水产养殖强烈地干扰了涂植被正常的演替过程,从而影响着黑嘴鸥等滩涂鸟类的生境适宜性。     

The environmental efficiency of Wanjiang demonstration area: A Bayesian estimation approach

With the implementation of the strategic policy and the construction of Wanjiang demonstration area recently, the government cares more about the natural environment. To protect the environment of this demonstration area, a quantitative analysis of environmental efficiency and its influencing factors is needed. In this paper, we measure the environmental efficiency of the demonstration area, and then analyze the total factor productivity of the area by Malmquist productivity index through data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Through the index and its decomposition, we are able to reveal the changing trend of the environmental efficiency. Moreover, we apply Bayesian estimation approach to analyze the influencing factors of the efficiency and discuss the relationship between these factors and the environmental efficiency. Results show that the efficiency of Wanjiang demonstration area bares a significant difference among constituent cities. Each area should devise proper environmental policy according to its particular circumstance.     

A Quantitative Health Evaluation of an Eco-Economy in the Semi-Arid Loess Plateau of China

Understanding the factors that affect the health of a semi-arid region's eco-economy is necessary for its sustainable development. The health evaluation, or diagnoses, of an eco-economy at the small watershed scale requires the integrated analysis of ecological, economic, and social factors, yet few studies have achieved this. The health of an eco-economy comprises three components: vigor, organization, and resilience. We use an analytic hierarchy process to develop a health evaluation index system that evaluates the health of an eco-economy system. We then use this diagnostic method to explore the factors affecting the health status of a semi-arid loess watershed in China in 2007 and 2009. The results show that between 2007 and 2009 the health status of the eco-economy improved from the “better” stage to the “benign circle” stage. The primary productivity of grassland, land productivity, rural per capita net income, number of livestock per household, input–output ratio, commodity rate of farm produce, and labor productivity were the main factors influencing the health of this eco-economy. Furthermore, this study shows that the eco-economy depends on material input from regions outside the watershed.     

Consequential Life Cycle Assessment of Pasture‐based Milk Production: A Case Study in the Waikato Region,New Zealand

Farm intensification options in pasture‐based dairy systems are generally associated with increased stocking rates coupled with the increased use of off‐farm inputs to support the additional feed demand of animals. However, as well as increasing milk production per hectare, intensification can also exacerbate adverse impacts on the environment. The objective of the present study was to investigate environmental trade‐offs associated with potential intensification methods for pasture‐based dairy farming systems in the Waikato region, New Zealand. The intensification scenarios selected were (1) increased pasture utilization efficiency (PUE scenario), (2) increased use of nitrogen (N) fertilizer to boost on‐farm pasture production (N fertilizer scenario), and (3) increased use of brought‐in feed as maize silage (MS) (MS scenario). Twelve impact categories were assessed. The PUE scenario was the environmentally preferred intensification method, and the preferred choice between the N fertilizer and MS scenarios depended upon trade‐offs between different environmental impacts. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to test the effects of choice associated with: (1) the approaches used to account for indirect land‐use change (ILUC) and (2) the competing product systems (conventional beef systems) used to handle the co‐product dairy meat for the climate change (CC) indicator. Results showed that the magnitude of the CC indicator results was influenced by the ILUC accounting approaches and the choice associated with a global marginal beef mix, but the relative CC indicator results for the three intensification scenarios remained unchanged.     

住区形态变迁与居民通勤能源消费的关系

快速城市化和城市扩张引发了住区形态的变迁,但形态变迁与居民通勤能源消费关系还不明确,如何通过城市的可持续公共管理政策来控制城市住区形态变迁过程下通勤能源消费及其温室气体排放有着重要意义.以厦门为例,通过土地利用与交通耦合模型TRANUS的情景分析研究了住区形态的变迁对人口、工作以及土地消费空间分布的影响,进而分析了不同情景下通勤能源消费和温室气体排放的水平.结果表明: 基准情景下交通出行早高峰能源消费总量为54.35 tce,CO₂排放为119.12 t;住区形态变迁情景下,通勤能耗和CO₂排放同比基准情景均增加12%;通过适当的土地利用、交通和经济政策的实施,通勤能源消费与CO₂排放同比基准情景减少7%,说明城市公共政策能够有效地控制住区形态变迁背景下通勤能源消费和温室气体排放的增长.     

RCPs气候情景下珠江三角洲地区城市用地扩展的预测与模拟

随着社会经济的快速发展,中国城市规模和数量不断扩大,城市土地利用系统内部变化错综复杂.本研究以珠江三角洲地区城市群为例,研究了在自然环境条件和社会经济条件共同作用下城市化进程中城市用地动态变化的驱动机制,并设计了规划情景和RCPs气候情景,运用决策树元胞自动机模型对这几种情景下珠江三角洲地区城市用地的动态变化进行预测模拟.结果表明: 非农业人口和社会经济的增长对城市化过程起着决定性的推动作用,交通干线在整个城市化进程中始终起着重要的基础性作用,高程较高和坡度较大的区域制约了该地区的城市化进程.随着时间的推移,无论哪种情景,城市用地扩张的态势不变,但扩张速度到一定时间节点将会减缓,不同情景下减缓的时间点不同;规划情景、MESSAGE模式和AIM模式下的城市用地发展速度依次增加,但MESSAGE气候模式下的城镇发展较符合当前的城镇发展态势;城市用地扩张的区域主要集中在广州、东莞、佛山、珠海、深圳、湛江和潮汕等城市化相对较高的区域.
     

Linking habitat use to range expansion rates in fragmented landscapes: a metapopulation approach

Temperature increases because of climate change are expected to cause expansions at the high latitude margins of species distributions, but, in practice, fragmented landscapes act as barriers to colonization for most species. Understanding how species distributions will shift in response to climate change therefore requires techniques that incorporate the combined effects of climate and landscape‐scale habitat availability on colonization rates. We use a metapopulation model (Incidence Function Model, IFM) to test effects of fine‐scale habitat use on patterns and rates of range expansion by the butterfly Hesperia comma. At its northern range margin in Britain, this species has increased its breadth of microhabitat use because of climate warming, leading to increased colonization rates. We validated the IFM by reconstructing expansions in five habitat networks between 1982 and 2000, before using it to predict metapopulation dynamics over 100 yr, for three scenarios based on observed changes to habitat use. We define the scenarios as “cold‐world” (only hot, south‐facing 150–250° hillsides are deemed warm enough), “warm‐world” in which 100–300° hillsides can be populated, and “hot‐world”, where the background climate is warm enough to enable use of all aspects (as increasingly observed). In the simulations, increased habitat availability in the hot‐world scenario led to faster range expansion rates, and to long‐term differences in distribution size and pattern. Thus, fine‐scale changes in the distribution of suitable microclimates led to landscape‐scale changes in population size and colonization rate, resulting in coarse‐scale changes to the species distribution. Despite use of a wider range of habitats associated with climate change, H. comma is still expected to occupy a small fraction of available habitat in 100 yr. The research shows that metapopulation models represent a potential framework to identify barriers to range expansion, and to predict the effects of environmental change or conservation interventions on species distributions and persistence.     

Modelling and evaluation of land use changes through satellite images in a multifunctional catchment: Social,economic and environmental implications

Floods are recurrent phenomena with significant environmental and socio-economic impacts. The risk of flooding increases when land use changes. The objective of this research is to detect land cover changes via Sentinel-2 images in the Umia Basin (Galicia, NW Spain) in 2016–2021 and to analyse the associated flood risk. This study focuses on how forest use and nature-based solutions (NBS) can reduce the risk and hazard of flooding in cities and crops in the high-risk area. A flood simulation was performed with the land use obtained from Sentinel-2 (Observed) and three more simulations were performed changing the location of afforestation and NBS, i.e. “S-Upstream”, “S-Downstream” and “S-Total”. Finally, the environmental, economic and social impacts of the scenarios designed and estimated are analysed and discussed. Land cover change was successfully monitored with Sentinel-2 imagery. The catchment area showed noteworthy changes in land use, most notably for the category of trees, which covered 6700 ha in 2016 and 10,911 ha in 2021. However riparian vegetation decreased by almost 11%. For the flood hazard simulations, an average reduction in peak discharge was obtained for all three scenarios (9.3% for S-Up; 8.6% for S-Down and 13% for S-Total). From the economic perspective, all three scenarios show a positive net present value for the period studied. However, S-Down is the scenario with the lowest benefits (€15,476,487), while S-Up and S-Total show better values at €29,580,643 and €65,158,130 respectively. However, investment cost is much higher for the S-Total scenario, and upstream actions affect the whole catchment, so S-Up is the best decision. This study concludes that the information provided by satellites is a large-scale analysis tool for small heterogeneous plots that facilitates the comprehensive analysis of a territory. This information can be incorporated into flood analysis models, facilitating simulation through the use of NBS. It has been proven that the use of reforestation upstream only is almost as beneficial as reforestation in the entire catchment and is economically more viable. This confirms that the methodology used reduces flood hazard, despite the territorial complexity, facilitating decision making on the use of NBS.     

晋北地区土地利用覆被格局的演变与模拟

区域土地利用覆被变化及未来发展情景对区域土地管理和可持续发展具有重要意义。以地处农牧交错带、土地利用覆被变化剧烈的晋北地区为研究区,获取其2010、2015年的土地利用覆被(Land use/land cover,LULC)数据,选取高程、人口、经济、气温、降水等9种影响因素作为驱动因子,采用CLUE-S模型拟合研究区2015年的土地覆被格局并判断拟合精度,在此基础上,分别设置了3种社会经济发展情景,模拟这些情景下研究区2020年的土地利用覆被格局演变。结果表明:1)晋北地区土地利用覆被以耕地、林地和草地为主,各类型土地主要呈西北斜向的条带状分布;2)Logistic回归模型可以很好地提取LULC与驱动因子之间的关系,反映不同的驱动因素对不同的土地利用类型分布格局的影响效果及程度;3)CLUE-S模型在晋北地区土地利用覆被格局的拟合上有较好的精度,模拟Kappa系数值达0.89,表明该模型能够很好地模拟晋北地区的土地利用覆被;4)情景模拟结果表明,研究区生态保护情景(c)下的土地利用覆被格局明显优于维持现状情景(a)和经济优先情景(b),建议在未来土地开发利用过程中,应当减缓工矿用地增...     

Coupling Input‐Output Tables with Macro‐Life Cycle Assessment to Assess Worldwide Impacts of Biofuels Transport Policies

Many countries see biofuels as a replacement to fossil fuels to mitigate climate change. Nevertheless, some concerns remain about the overall benefits of biofuels policies. More comprehensive tools seem required to evaluate indirect effects of biofuel policies. This article proposes a method to evaluate large‐scale biofuel policies that is based on life cycle assessment (LCA), environmental extensions of input‐output (I‐O) tables, and a general equilibrium model. The method enables the assessment of indirect environmental effects of biofuels policies, including land‐use changes (LUCs), in the context of economic and demographic growth. The method is illustrated with a case study involving two scenarios. The first one describes the evolution of the world economy from 2006 to 2020 under business as usual (BAU) conditions (including demographic and dietary preferences changes), and the second integrates biofuel policies in the United States and the European Union (EU). Results show that the biofuel scenario, originally designed to mitigate climate change, results in more greenhouse gas emissions when compared to the BAU scenario. This is mainly due to emissions associated with global LUCs. The case study shows that the method enables a broader consideration for environmental effects of biofuel policies than usual LCA: Global economic variations calculated by a general equilibrium economic model and LUC emissions can be evaluated. More work is needed, however, to include new biofuel production technologies and reduce the uncertainty of the method.     

Environmental stress maintains trioecy in nematode worms

Sex is determined by chromosomes in mammals but it can be influenced by the environment in many worms, crustaceans, and vertebrates. Despite this, there is little understanding of the relationship between ecology and the evolution of sexual systems. The nematode Auanema freiburgensis has a unique sex determination system in which individuals carrying one X chromosome develop into males while XX individuals develop into females in stress-free environments and self-fertile hermaphrodites in stressful environments. Theory predicts that trioecious populations with coexisting males, females, and hermaphrodites should be unstable intermediates in evolutionary transitions between mating systems. In this article, we study a mathematical model of reproductive evolution based on the unique life history and sex determination of A. freiburgensis. We develop the model in two scenarios, one where the relative production of hermaphrodites and females is entirely dependent on the environment and one based on empirical measurements of a population that displays incomplete, “leaky” environmental dependence. In the first scenario environmental conditions can push the population along an evolutionary continuum and result in the stable maintenance of multiple reproductive systems. The second “leaky” scenario results in the maintenance of three sexes for all environmental conditions. Theoretical investigations of reproductive system transitions have focused on the evolutionary costs and benefits of sex. Here, we show that the flexible sex determination system of A. freiburgensis may contribute to population-level resilience in the microscopic nematode's patchy, ephemeral natural habitat. Our results demonstrate that life history, ecology, and environment may play defining roles in the evolution of sexual systems.     

Agricultural land use and Skylark Alauda arvensis: a case study linking a habitat association model to spatially explicit change scenarios

The development of forward scenarios is a useful method of envisaging the environmental implications of potential changes in land use, as a tool for policy development. In this paper, a spatially explicit case study is used to provide insight into the environmental impacts of Common Agricultural Policy reform on Skylark Alauda arvensis, a species which is widespread on arable farmland, breeds in crops and has declined in recent decades. A generalized linear mixed model was used to estimate Skylark breeding population densities in different crops, using survey data collected from farms in the east of England, supplemented by the literature. Model outputs were then used to predict Skylark densities in an East Anglian Joint Character Area dominated by arable cropping. Predicted densities were mapped at field level using GIS, based on actual cropping derived from Integrated Administration and Control System data collected for the administration of subsidy payments. Three future scenarios were then created, based on expert opinion of potential changes in cropping over the next 5 years, and potential changes in Skylark density mapped on the basis of the predicted changes in cropping patterns. Overall, Skylark densities were predicted to decrease on average by 11–14% under ‘market‐led’ (increasing wheat and oilseed rape, reduced set‐aside) and ‘energy crop’ (5% area under short rotation coppice) scenarios, but remained virtually unchanged under an ‘environment‐led’ (diverse cropping) scenario. The ‘market‐led’ scenario is closest to short‐term agricultural trajectories, but wider cultivation of biomass energy crops as modelled under the ‘energy crop’ scenario could occur in the medium term if energy policies are favourable. Appropriate mitigation strategies therefore need to be implemented if a continued decline in the Skylark population on lowland arable farmland is to be averted. The results provide a readily accessible visualization of the potential impacts of land‐use change for policy‐makers; similar techniques could be applied to visualize effects of changes arising through other drivers, including climate change.     

Strategies for Protecting and Restoring Rhode Island's Watersheds on Multiple Scales

The Clean Water Act has traditionally preserved the quality and quantity of a region's water by focusing resources on areas with known or anticipated problems. USEPA Region 1 is taking the supplemental, longer-range approach of protecting areas of New England where natural resources are still healthy. As part of Region 1 's “New England Resource Protection” approach, stakeholders participate in an open process that identifies healthy ecosystems and characterizes how well they support aquatic life and human health. Since the concerns of stakeholders are usually local, the process also displays areas of nonattainment within individual watersheds and determines their likely causes. One of the most powerful ways to display these types of information on multiple scales is to use a geographic information system (GIS). The case of phosphorus in southern Rhode Island's Tucker Pond illustrates how a GIS can help integrate concerns from the public, data from Clean Water Act monitoring, and information from the New England Resource Protection Project to identify types of environmental assessment questions on scales ranging from states to subwatersheds. By involving the public at all stages of the process and better informing them about their watersheds, this new approach makes them better stewards of their environment.     

基于土地多功能的黄土丘陵沟壑区生态保护与发展情景评估及多主体模拟

黄土高原丘陵沟壑区生态环境脆弱,近几十年生态保护工程的实施带来显著的生态恢复效果,也对农户的生计策略与区域粮食安全产生了影响。刻画生态脆弱区人-地系统复杂响应过程,可以为区域可持续的土地利用管理模式提供依据。研究从土地多功能出发,着眼于黄土丘陵沟壑区河谷川地、梁峁区域、黄土塬地、土石山地以及城郊区域等不同的典型地貌类型与代表区域,采用多层次利益相关者参与式的评估框架,以农户的耕地利用行为及生态工程影响与未来发展为切入点,设置惯性发展情景、发展优先兼顾生态情景、农业优先兼顾生态情景以及生态优先兼顾发展情景,构建多智能体模型对区域土地利用与土地多功能的时空变化开展模拟。主要结果表明：(1)生态优先兼顾发展情景综合影响最高且对各维度影响相对均衡,而农业优先兼顾生态情景对区域土地的经济维度的功能和社会维度具有更为明显的提升效应;(2)根据土地多功能空间变化模拟结果,区域土地利用破碎化明显且耕地的撂荒对全域土地多功能均表现出明显的限制作用,农业优先兼顾生态情景中土地功能发生下降的面积最少;(3)发生土地功能下降的区域主要分布在土地质量较差、坡度处于5—15°范围内、地形起伏度较大以及距离道路较远...     

Spatiotemporal land use modelling to assess land availability for energy crops – illustrated for Mozambique

A method and tool have been developed to assess future developments in land availability for bioenergy crops in a spatially explicit way, while taking into account both the developments in other land use functions, such as land for food, livestock and material production, and the uncertainties in the key determinant factors of land use change (LUC). This spatiotemporal LUC model is demonstrated with a case study on the developments in the land availability for bioenergy crops in Mozambique in the timeframe 2005–2030. The developments in the main drivers for agricultural land use, demand for food, animal products and materials were assessed, based on the projected developments in population, diet, GDP and self‐sufficiency ratio. Two scenarios were developed: a business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenario and a progressive scenario. Land allocation was based on land use class‐specific sets of suitability factors. The LUC dynamics were mapped on a 1 km² grid level for each individual year up to 2030. In the BAU scenario, 7.7 Mha and in the progressive scenario 16.4 Mha could become available for bioenergy crop production in 2030. Based on the Monte Carlo analysis, a 95% confidence interval of the amount of land available and the spatially explicit probability of available land was found. The bottom‐up approach, the number of dynamic land uses, the diverse portfolio of LUC drivers and suitability factors, and the possibility to model uncertainty mean that this model is a step forward in modelling land availability for bioenergy potentials.