Optimal conservation planning of multiple hydrological ecosystem services under land use and climate changes in Teshio river watershed,northernmost of Japan

Most anthropogenic activities impacted on water quality and quantity, and further impacted on ecosystem services (ESs) in watershed are related to land use and climate changes those may cause losses of ecosystem functions. Effective information regarding ESs and their optimal priority conservation planning responded to land use and climate changes provide useful support for diverse stakeholders in ESs planning, management and policies. This study integrated the approach of spatially explicit ESs (water yield, inorganic nutrient, organic nutrient and sediment retentions) by using hydrology and material flow model (Soil and Water Assessment Tools, SWAT model) into systematic conservation of hydrological ESs according to land use and climate changes in Teshio watershed located in the north of Hokkaido, Japan. We investigated the spatial patterns and the hotspots of ESs changes to determine the spatial pattern of changes in systematic conservation optimal area of ES protection in terms of ESs protection targets. Under the land use and climate change scenarios, the forest land use significantly affected on the water yield, sediment, organic-Nitrogen (N) and organic-Phosphorous (P) retentions. The agricultural land (paddy and farmland fields) impacted on the inorganic-N and inorganic-P retentions. We applied the systematic conservation model (MARXAN model) to optimize the area for management of hydrological ESs satisfied the protection targets (30% and 50% of potential maximum ESs values among all scenarios) in all and individual ecosystem services, respectively. The simulated results indicated that the areas of spatial optimal ESs protection for all hydrological ESs were totally different from those for individual ESs. For bundles of ESs, the optimal priority conservation areas concentrated in southwest, north, and southeast of this watershed, which are related to land use, topography and climate driving factors. These places could guarantee ESs sustainability from both environmental protection and agricultural development standpoints. The priority conservation area turned more compact under climate change because the increased precipitation and temperature increased ESs amount. For individual ESs, the optimal priority conservation areas of water yield, sediment retention and organic nutrient retention were traded off against those of inorganic nutrient retention (lower Jaccard's indexes and negative correlations of selection times). Especially, the negative correlation of selection times increased as the conservation target increased from 30% to 50%. The proposed approach provided useful information for assessing the responses of ESs and systematic conservation optimal planning to the land use and climate changes. The systematic conservation optimal areas of hydrological ESs provided an effective trade-off tool between environmental protection (sediment and organic nutrient retentions) and economic development (water yield and inorganic nutrient retention).     

北京市生态用地规划与管理对策

不合理土地开发加速了对自然生态系统的干扰和侵占,导致生态系统服务功能下降,危机区域生态安全,开展生态用地规划是构建区域生态安全格局的基础。合理规划和管理不同土地利用类型的数量和空间分布对区域可持续发展具有重要意义。目前我国广泛应用的土地利用分类体系主要以土地的社会经济属性为基础,忽视其生态属性,导致以提供生态系统服务为主、保障生态安全的土地缺乏保护机制,具有重要生态功能的土地得不到有效保护。以北京市为例,建立了北京市生态用地分类与规划的思路与程序,在明确北京市生态安全与生态系统服务功能的关系基础上分析了北京市生态系统服务功能重要性及其空间格局,并进行了北京市生态用地规划。研究规划了保障北京市生态安全的7类生态用地:地表水涵养与保护用地、地下水保护用地、生物多样性保护用地、水土保持用地、河流防护用地、公路防护用地和城市绿地,总面积5137.37km2,占北京市域面积的31.31%。最后从生态用地识别和划分、将生态用地融入土地利用分类体系、生态用地管理措施和对策3个方面探讨了生态用地规划和管理的方法与措施。研究结果为北京市土地利用规划和有效管理提供依据,也为其它地区的生态用地规划提供参考。     

Mapping ecosystem services demand: A review of current research and future perspectives

Mapping the demand for ecosystem services (ES) has received increased attention in scientific research and is seen as a relevant tool to inform conservation planning, land use planning and management. Yet, there is a varying understanding of the concept of ES demand, which has implications on how and where ES demand is being mapped. In this paper we review the current conceptual understanding of ES demand, indicators to measure demand and the approaches used to quantify and map demand. We identified four distinct “demand types”, which relate to different ecosystem service categories. These demand types include demand expressed in terms of (1) risk reduction, (2) preferences and values, (3) direct use or (4) consumption of goods and services. Each of the demand types was linked to specific methods applied in the reviewed literature. We found that operationalization of ES demand in policy, planning and management requires a more consistent understanding and definition of ES demand, its drivers and its temporal dynamics. Furthermore, the impact of demands for multiple ecosystem services on land use change needs to be investigated. This will allow for the consideration of temporal and cross-level interactions between supply and demand of ecosystem services and its impacts in land use change modelling.     

基于土地利用模拟预测模型分析的城市绿色空间发展多情景模拟及建设时序研究——以湛江市中心城区为例

城市绿色空间是未来中国城镇战略发展的重要生态空间载体。城市中心城区的绿色空间生态系统服务价值可作为未来城市生态空间规划的重要依据。生态服务系统之间的权衡或协同关系可通过不同土地利用方式和利用强度表征显现。通过对湛江市中心城区绿色空间应用土地利用模拟预测(PLUS)模型进行自然发展情景与国土空间规划情景双情景下2035年土地利用变化模拟,采用当量因子法及热点分析对生态系统服务价值及其高低值在空间上的聚集程度进行分析,与人类活动强度空间分布进行叠置,得出国土空间规划政策下湛江市中心城区城市绿色空间发展优先级分区,优先化解建设用地与绿色空间发展矛盾,为规划政策提供空间政策的量化数据基础,为其可行性实施、时序安排及预期结果提供数据支撑与建议。结果表明：(1)规划政策情景与自然发展情景未来土地利用模拟结果相比,耕地、林地增多,整体水域得到有效保护,建设用地蔓延受到抑制。(2)生态系统服务价值在2035年规划政策情景>2020年实际情景>2035年自然发展情景,分别约为12.22亿元、11.89亿元、10.53亿元,规划政策情境下生态系统服务价值总量较自然发展情景下提升约1.69亿元,...     

Assessing regulating and provisioning ecosystem services in a contrasting tropical forest landscape

Ecosystem services are the bridge between nature and society, and are essential elements of community well-being. The Wet Tropics Australia, is environmentally and biologically diverse, and supplies numerous ecosystem services. It contributes to the community well-being of this region, Australian national economy and global climate change mitigation efforts. However, the ecosystem services in the region have rarely been assessed undermining strategic landscape planning to sustain their future flow. In this study, we attempted to: (i) assess the quantity of five regulating ecosystem services – global climate regulation, air quality regulation, erosion regulation, nutrient regulation, and cyclone protection, and three provisioning ecosystem services – habitat provision, energy provision and timber provision across rainforests, sclerophyll forests and rehabilitated plantation forests; (ii) evaluate the variation of supply of those regulating and provisioning ecosystem services across environmental gradients, such as rainfall, temperature, and elevation; (iii) show the relationships among those ecosystem services; and (iv) identify the hotspots of single and multiple ecosystem services supply across the landscape. The results showed that rainforests possess a very high capacity to supply single and multiple ecosystem services, and the hotspots for most of the regulating and provisioning ecosystem services are found in upland rainforest followed by lowland rainforest, and upland sclerophyll forest. Elevation, rainfall and temperature gradients along with forest structure are the main determinant factors for the quantity of ecosystem services supplied across the three forest types. The correlation among ecosystem services may be positive or negative depending on the ecosystem service category and vegetation type. The rehabilitated plantation forests may provide some ecosystem services comparable to the rainforest. The results demonstrated disturbance regimes (such as tropical cyclones) may have influenced the usual spatial trend of ecosystem service values. This study will assist decision makers in incorporating ecosystem services into their natural resource management planning, and for practitioners to identify the areas with higher values of specific and multiple ecosystem services.     

Ecosystem service state and trends at the regional to national level: A rapid assessment

The concept of ecosystem services has helped rationalize humanity's dependence on and benefits from nature, pushing the paradigm of environmental sustainability from a charity in the direction of a necessity. However, globally many ecosystem services are declining despite their eminent value for society. A prime cause of this decline is allocated to land use change. While the body of empirical research showing various consequences of land use is growing, and the ecosystem service concept has helped make trade-offs more graspable, a lucid approach that neatly summarizes the extent of land use trade-offs is still lacking.In this paper, we introduce a rapid assessment to analyze both the state and trends of selected ecosystem services associated with given land use categories. Theoretically, the assessment can be performed for any given spatial unit, but the regional to national level appears to be the most appropriate spatial resolution. Each land use-ecosystem service relationship is classified from a strong disservice to a strong service. The results are displayed in adapted flower diagrams, which legibly display information on the ecosystem services in each land use, thus clearly summarizing trade-offs associated with changing land use.We illustrate this rapid ecosystem service assessment method by applying it to three land use categories on the spatial extent of Switzerland. We found that the simple but systematic approach is more flexible than traditional mapping approaches, i.e. it allowed us to combine a variety of spatially non-explicit but highly detailed indicators with spatially explicit indicators. Also, we were able to proceed faster than with a mapping approach, where many known and unknown spatial inaccuracies may arise have allowed. This flexible incorporation of spatially explicit and non-explicit data provides high quality information on the state and trends of ecosystem services at regional to national extents. For that reason, we are convinced that the rapid assessment method has the potential to advance knowledge of ecosystem services and land use trade-offs, especially in areas with low data availability and monitoring activity.     

基于土地利用变化情景的生态系统服务价值评估: 以钱江源国家公园体制试点区为例

土地利用变化是生物多样性与生态系统服务变化的主要原因之一。评估土地利用变化对生物多样与生态系统服务影响对于政府决策具有重要作用。钱江源国家公园体制试点区是钱塘江的源头, 也是国家的重点生态功能区。本研究以钱江源国家公园体制试点区为研究区, 首先设计自然发展情景、规划情景、生态保护情景和开发利用情景等4种2025年不同土地利用变化情景, 随后采用InVEST模型和CLUE-S模型分析不同情景下钱江源国家公园水资源供给、涵养水源、固碳释氧、土壤保持、环境净化和生境质量等生态系统服务及其价值变化。结果表明: (1)核心保护区和生态保育区的生态系统服务价值占钱江源国家公园总价值的88.30%。(2)生态保护情景下钱江源国家公园生态系统服务价值最高, 有129.17亿元; 规划情景下生态系统服务价值次之, 有126.92亿元。(3)规划情景下钱江源国家公园水资源供给服务优于生态保护情景, 其他生态系统服务则次于生态保护情景。考虑到钱江源国家公园为下游提供重要的水资源这一功能, 将规划情景作为试点区2025年最优的土地利用变化情景。     

绿色基础设施的洪水调节服务供需测度研究进展

绿色基础设施(green infrastructure, GI)可提供高效且可获取的洪水调节服务,其供需测度是提升服务水平的基础与前提,可为城市土地利用与绿色基础设施规划提供决策依据。以GI洪水调节服务供需为研究对象,梳理GI洪水调节服务供需的概念内涵、主体构成和尺度关系。回顾了GI洪水调节服务供需测度方法,包括土地利用测度法、生态系统测度法和洪水调蓄模型法等供应水平测度方法,以及风险评估法、洪水淹没模型法和经济损失法等需求水平测度方法。基于生态系统服务的供需关系,构建了GI洪水调节服务供需分析框架,通过供需数量均衡和空间匹配将供需关系分为四种情景,对应服务动态平衡、调整服务供需水平和服务流动机制3种调控手段。从服务测度重点、动态变化分析、供需阈值效能、服务流动机制等四个方面提出了未来研究方向,以期对绿色基础设施规划研究和生态系统服务管理与决策研究有所启示。     

基于县域尺度珠江-西江经济带广西段土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响研究

土地利用方式改变着区域生态系统服务供给的潜在能力,进而对区域生态环境和经济可持续发展产生重要影响。以我国珠江-西江经济带广西段为例,测算1990年、2005年和2018年3期土地利用变化（LUC）和生态系统服务价值（ESV）,进而利用ESV损益流向表和双变量空间自相关模型探讨LUC影响下ESV的时空特征。结果表明：（1）28年间研究区ESV总值变化不大,近年来ESV相比2005年有所降低,建设用地面积增幅最大,耕地和林地面积先减少后增多,以林地与耕地相互转移为主;（2）林地是研究区最重要的生态用地,维持生物多样性、水文调节、保持土壤、气体调节和气候调节构成研究区ESV的主体;生态系统服务价值强度（ESVI）高值区主要分布在桂西北、桂东和桂北,低值区分布在地势较为平坦的桂中丘陵平原区;各区县ESVI呈显著空间正自相关性（P<0.05）,空间集聚程度较高,高-高聚集、低-低聚集分别与生态系统服务价值强度高值、低值区域高度重合;（3）研究期间林地与耕地之间的相互转移是ESV增减的主要原因;3个时期土地利用程度与ESVI的双变量空间自相关图具有相似的空间特征,呈现出显著空间负自相关模式（P<0.05）。     

Understanding future ecosystem changes in Lake Victoria basin using participatory local scenarios

Understanding future ecosystem changes is central to sustainable natural resource management especially when coupled with in-depth understanding of impacts of drivers, such as governance, demographic, economic and climate variations and land use policy. This offers comprehensive information for sustainable ecosystem services provision. A foresight process of systematic and presumptive assessment of future state and ecosystem integrity of Lake Victoria basin, as participatory scenario building technique, is presented. Four scenarios have been illustrated as possible future states of the basin over the next twenty years. Using a scenario building model developed in Ventana Simulation (VENSIM^®) platform, the paper presents a scenario methodology for tracking changes in lake basin ecosystem status. Plausible trends in land use change, changes in lake levels and contribution of fisheries are presented. This is part of an initial attempt to setup long-term environmental policy planning strategies for Lake Victoria basin. The assumptions, driving forces, impacts and opportunities under each scenario depict major departure and convergence points for an integrated transboundary diagnosis and analysis of regional issues in the basin as well as strategic action planning for long-term interventions. The findings have been presented in terms of temporal, spatial, biophysical and human well-being dimensions. The attempts in this study can be embedded in a policy framework for basin management priority setting and may guide partnerships for environmental management.     

Land management implications for ecosystem services in a South African rangeland

In South Africa, restoration and sustainable management of historically overgrazed and degraded rangelands are promoted to increase biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. This study evaluates different land management scenarios in terms of ecosystem services in a South African rangeland, the Baviaanskloof catchment. As measured data were limited, we used simple models to quantify and map the effect of the different combination of agricultural, nature conservation and restoration practices on multiple ecosystem services. The land management scenarios were evaluated against management targets set for individual ecosystem services. Results highlight how the provision of ecosystem services is related to land management as unmanaged, pristine ecosystems provide a different mix of ecosystem services than ecosystems recently restored or managed as grazing lands. Results also indicate that historically overgrazed lands provide no forage, may retain 40% less sediment and have 38% lower biodiversity, while providing 60% more fuel wood and supplying two and half times more water (i.e. retaining less water), than pristine or restored lands. We conclude that a combination of light grazing, low input agriculture, nature conservation and restoration is the best for the sufficient provision of multiple ecosystem services. Applying such mixed management would improve biodiversity, ecotourism and maintain forage production and regulating services on farmers’ land. This management option also fits into and further optimizes local decision-makers’ vision regarding the future management of the area.     

Mapping ecosystem services: The supply and demand of flood regulation services in Europe

Ecosystem services (ES) feature highly distinctive spatial and temporal patterns of distribution, quantity, and flows. The flow of ecosystem goods and services to beneficiaries plays a decisive role in the valuation of ES and the successful implementation of the ES concept in environmental planning. This is particularly relevant to regulating services where demands emerge often spatially separated from supply. However, spatial patterns of both supply and demand are rarely incorporated in ES assessments on continental scales. In this paper, we present an ES modeling approach with low data demand, fit to be employed in scenario analysis and on multiple scales. We analyze flood regulation services at a European scale by explicitly addressing the spatial distribution of ES demand. A flood regulation supply indicator is developed based on scenario runs with a hydrological model in representative river catchments, incorporating detailed information on land, cover, land use and management. Land use sensitive flood damage estimates in the European Union (EU) are employed to develop a spatial indicator for flood regulation demand. Findings are transferred to the EU territory to create a map of the current supply of flood regulation and the potential supply under conditions of natural vegetation. Regions with a high capacity to provide flood regulation are mainly characterized by large patches of natural vegetation or extensive agriculture. The main factor limiting supply on a continental scale is a low water holding capacity of the soil. Flood regulation demand is highest in central Europe, at the foothills of the Alps and upstream of agglomerations. We were able to identify areas with a high potential capacity to provide flood regulation in conjunction with land use modifications. When combined with spatial patterns of current supply and demand, we could identify priority areas for investments in ES flood regulation supply through conservation and land use planning. We found that only in a fraction of the EU river catchments exhibiting a high demand, significant increases in flood regulation supply are achievable by means of land use modifications.     

Social Perceptions of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in the Ecuadorian Amazon

The Amazon basin is widely recognized for its high biological and cultural diversity, enabling the provision of many ecosystem services. This study explores social perceptions of some of the features of biodiversity and ecosystem services in a tropical forest in Sangay Parish, Ecuador. Following a survey of residents, we identified three groups whose perceptions vary in relation to socioeconomic characteristics, cultural backgrounds, lifestyles, and the benefits obtained from the Sangay forest. Mestizo professionals, with a better socioeconomic situation, identify more regulation and cultural services; Shuar farmers have a comprehensive knowledge of biodiversity features and rely on provisioning services; and Shuar gatherers consume more forest products but are the least likely to formally recognize ecosystem services. We emphasize the importance of identifying social groups within a population and understanding their particular characteristics and perspectives before developing conservation and land use planning policies.     

生态系统服务竞争与协同研究进展

生态系统服务作为生态系统评估的核心领域,是生态学的研究热点。生态系统提供服务的形式与能力受人类活动强烈影响,反之,生态系统服务的变化又影响着人类相关决策的制定。不同生态系统服务之间很难甚至不可能同时达到利益最大化,即存在着不同程度此消彼长的竞争关系。此外,不同生态系统服务之间也可能形成相互促进或抑制的协同作用。探讨不同生态系统服务的相互关系(竞争与协同作用),有利于揭示不同尺度利益相关方与生态系统服务之间的作用与反馈机制,避免生态系统服务的重复估算;同时可为制定与实施生态补偿、提高人类福祉提供科学依据,优化生态系统服务管理。综合研究了近期国外生态系统服务竞争关系与协同作用的相关文献,在简述当前生态系统服务研究若干问题的基础上,以生态系统服务竞争与协同为视角,厘清了生态系统服务竞争与协同的基本内涵,总结了生态系统服务竞争与协同的主要类型,探讨了生态系统服务竞争与协同的空间与时间尺度效应;介绍并总结了生态系统服务竞争与协同两种主要研究方法(生态-经济综合模型方法、基于土地利用的情景分析法)的特点与适应范围。     

Ecosystem services and agriculture: tradeoffs and synergies

Agricultural ecosystems provide humans with food, forage, bioenergy and pharmaceuticals and are essential to human wellbeing. These systems rely on ecosystem services provided by natural ecosystems, including pollination, biological pest control, maintenance of soil structure and fertility, nutrient cycling and hydrological services. Preliminary assessments indicate that the value of these ecosystem services to agriculture is enormous and often underappreciated. Agroecosystems also produce a variety of ecosystem services, such as regulation of soil and water quality, carbon sequestration, support for biodiversity and cultural services. Depending on management practices, agriculture can also be the source of numerous disservices, including loss of wildlife habitat, nutrient runoff, sedimentation of waterways, greenhouse gas emissions, and pesticide poisoning of humans and non-target species. The tradeoffs that may occur between provisioning services and other ecosystem services and disservices should be evaluated in terms of spatial scale, temporal scale and reversibility. As more effective methods for valuing ecosystem services become available, the potential for ‘win–win’ scenarios increases. Under all scenarios, appropriate agricultural management practices are critical to realizing the benefits of ecosystem services and reducing disservices from agricultural activities.     

不同SSP-RCP情景下中国生态系统服务价值评估

定量评估生态系统服务价值是人类合理利用和管理生态系统的重要依据,未来气候情景下土地利用变化模拟及其对生态系统服务价值的影响评估对于区域生态系统服务管理、开展生态功能区划及减缓和适应气候变化等方面具有重要意义。基于最新IPCC共享社会经济路径(SSPs)和典型浓度路径(RCPs)的科学组合情景模拟得到的土地利用情景数据,对2020—2050年我国生态系统服务价值进行估算,并对2050年生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系进行讨论,主要得到以下结论：生态系统服务价值(ESV)在2020—2050年表现为SSP1-RCP2.6>SSP2-RCP4.5>SSP3-RCP6.0,SSP1-RCP2.6情景下2020年ESV为12.39×10⁴亿元,2050年ESV为12.34×10⁴亿元;SSP2-RCP4.5情景下2020年ESV为12.17×10⁴亿元,2050年ESV为12.11×10⁴亿元;SSP3-RCP6.0情景下2020年ESV为12.02×10⁴亿元,2050年ES...     

区域生态服务价值对土地利用变化的响应——以重庆市沙坪坝区为例

土地利用通过生态进程与服务间的相互作用影响生态系统提供的产品与服务.本研究以重庆市沙坪坝区为例,采用GIS与实地调查,运用Costanza等提出的生态服务价值系数,结合敏感度分析,探讨了区域生态服务价值对土地利用变化的响应.结果表明,重庆市沙坪坝区在1992～2002年间生态服务价值从1.74×10⁷ ＄降低到1.68×10⁷ ＄,净损失5.40×10⁵ ＄,平均土地净损失生态服务价值13.62＄·hm^-2;赋予各种土地利用类型生态服务价值系数的大小对区域总的生态服务价值变化影响不明显,其变化趋于相对稳定;耕地、林地和园地生物量生态服务价值系数总和接近于区域真实值,水域生态服务价值系数偏大,调整30%为每年5 667＄·hm^-2,更接近于真实值;运用现状数据库、变更数据库和Costanza模型估算区域土地利用变化导致生态服务价值变化切实可行,可为区域土地利用效益评价及土地利用规划提供借鉴.     

低碳发展背景下北京市土地利用与生态系统服务多情景模拟研究

在全球气候变化的背景下,合理协调低碳减排与经济效益之间的关系,进而指导土地利用优化配置,对于推动经济社会低碳转型与生态系统服务价值的提升具有重要意义。通过耦合多目标规划(MOP)与斑块生成土地利用模拟模型(PLUS),针对北京市构建了自然演变、经济优先与低碳发展这3种未来发展情景,并对不同情景下2030年土地利用与生态系统服务价值进行模拟评估。在此基础上,进一步对北京市未来生态系统服务提升区域进行识别,将传统的多情景土地利用模拟研究进行了延伸与扩展。结果表明：(1)3种情景下的土地利用结构与空间布局存在差异,低碳发展情景下东南部平原区建设用地的扩张与耕地面积的减少趋势得到了有效控制,西北部山区的林地面积有较大幅度的增长。(2)低碳发展情景下的生态系统服务价值总量约为590亿元,高于另外两种情景,且从空间分布上来看,该情景下服务价值提升区域的面积也显著高于其他情景。(3)低碳发展情景下,北京市生态系统服务提升潜力较大的区域面积占比约7.98%、潜力中等区域的面积占比约26.57%,潜力较低区域的面积占比约65.45%。     

中国快速城市化区域生态系统服务价值预测及权衡研究——以佛山市为例

中国快速城市化区域由于经济迅速发展需要以及人类活动不断干扰，导致土地利用变化剧烈，影响生态系统功能发挥和服务供给，给予生态环境带来巨大压力。分析和预测快速城市化区域生态服务价值（Ecosystem Service Value，ESV）时空演变特征、权衡与协同关系，对协调区域可持续发展具有重要意义。通过FLUS（Future Land Use Simulation）模型、价值当量表估算法、皮尔逊相关分析和双变量自相关等方法，分析并预测2005-2025年佛山市土地利用变化对ESV的影响，同时探究2025年多情景下生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同关系。结果表明：①2005-2025佛山市土地利用格局变化明显，生态保护情景下土地利用变化程度最缓和。②2005-2015年ESV共下降11.41亿元，经济发展情景下的ESV下降趋势最明显。③供给、调节、支持与文化4种单项ESV，分别下降1.95、5.02、4.08、0.36亿元；生态保护情景下的各项ESV均上升。④生态系统服务之间均存在明显的协同作用，经济发展情景下的协同关系最显著；西南和东北区域主要表现为协同关系，局部区域表现为权衡关系。研究结果可为快速城市化区域生态系统功能调控和生态安全格局构建提供一定的思路。     

多情景模拟下重庆市土地利用变化对生态系统健康的影响

模拟多情景下区域土地利用变化引起生态系统健康状况改变,对优化用地格局和保障区域生态安全具有重要意义。基于重庆市2000-2020年土地利用和生态系统健康动态演变特征,运用生态系统健康模型和斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型模拟自然发展(ND)、生态保护(EP)和城镇发展(UD)三种情景下土地利用变化对生态系统健康的影响程度。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年建设用地扩张迅速,耕地面积减少最多,主要向林地和建设用地转移;生态系统健康状况整体呈现向好趋势,但区域差异显著。(2)2030年土地利用类型仍以耕地、林地为主,ND、EP和UD情景的建设用地规模较2020年分别增加63.59%、44.54%和100.13%,中心城区成为建设用地扩张集聚地。(3)2030年ND和UD情景的生态系统健康值较2020年均减小,建设用地增加和林地减少成为其健康退化的重要原因;而EP情景的健康值呈上升趋势,与反映生态系统健康对土地利用变化响应弹性结果相反,可见EP情景下的土地利用优化是实现区域生态系统健康可持续发展的有效途径。研究结果可为研究区生态系统保护管理与土地利用政策优化提供参考依据。