Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Carbon Footprint of Shopping Bags

Carbon footprints for several shopping bag alternatives (polyethylene, paper, cotton, biodegradable modified starch, and recycled polyethylene) were compared with life cycle assessment. Stochastic uncertainty analysis was used to study the sensitivity of the comparison to scenario and parameter uncertainty. On the basis of the results, we could give only a few robust conclusions without choosing a waste treatment scenario or limiting the parameter space. Given the scenario of current waste infrastructure in Finland, recycled polyethylene bags seem to be the most preferable (?7 to 24 g CO₂ eq./bag) and biodegradable bags the least preferable (38 to 60 g CO₂ eq./bag) option. In each analyzed waste treatment scenario, a few parameters dominated the uncertainty of results. Most of these parameters were downstream of the shopping bag manufacturing (consumer behavior, landfill conditions, method of waste combustion, etc.). The choice of waste treatment scenario had a greater effect on the ranking of bags than parameter uncertainty within scenarios. This result highlights the importance of including several scenarios in comparative life cycle assessments.     

区域生态经济系统的物质输入与输出分析——以常州市武进区为例

运用物质流分析（MFA）方法,对江苏省常州市武进区生态经济系统中物质输入与输出进行了系统的分析,结果表明：（1）随着社会经济发展和人口增长,武进区物质输入总量及人均物质输入量也在增加,但递增速率均远小于GDP增长速率,而物质输出总量及人均物质输出量则呈现递减趋势;（2）在不考虑水的因素情况下,武进区物质输入量保持较快的上升速度,其中固体物质的增长速率远远大于气体物质的增长速率;物质输出量则呈总体下降趋势,其中以气体物质输出量的贡献最大,对环境造成污染的物质以气体特别是以化石燃料燃烧排放的废气和工业废气为主;（3）排除占大部分比例农业用水的上升,工业用水、城镇生活用水和地下水总量及人均利用强度都在减少;同时,总的废水排放量及人均排放量在减少,其中又以生活废水排放量的减少最快,其次是工业废水;（4）单位GDP物质输入量的变化处于波动状态,同期的单位GDP物质输出量则呈递减趋势,单位GDP用水量和单位GDP废水排放量则有相同的递减趋势,表征了武进区资源利用效率的稳步提高,区域经济增长和环境压力也在逐步脱钩。上述结果体现了武进区近年来循环经济发展模式的优势,但还存在较多问题,说明武进区在调整物质利用强度和提高资源利用效率方面还需下更大的功夫,并采取相关措施,以期提高实施循环经济战略与建设节约型社会的地位和意义。文章最后结合研究区实际情况就区域环境一经济的协调发展进行了展望,指出了物质流分析方法在应用中的一些缺陷,为今后该领域的进一步研究提供了借鉴。     

Risk-Based Approaches to Managing Contaminants in Catchments

Risk-based methods promise improved decision-making for managing of contaminants, such as salinity, sediments, nutrients, and toxicants, that can adversely affect the ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems. Two aspects of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and management—stakeholder involvement and more quantitative approaches to risk analysis—are particularly challenging. Stakeholder involvement is crucial both in the risk assessment process and the development, acceptance, and implementation of a risk management plan. Additionally, a number of quantitative approaches (particularly Bayesian approaches and multi-criteria decision-making) have been identified as having the potential to include expert-based inputs into risk-based decision-making. These offer promise for better inclusion of stakeholder knowledge and preferences into the decision-making process, and for improving the links between stakeholder inputs and potential risks to the ecological condition of the system. A major challenge for ecologists and natural resource managers is to make the ERA process more quantitative. Most ERAs conducted to date have been qualitative assessments that suffer from a number of deficiencies, the most serious being the lack of transparency and a reliance on subjective judgments. This article argues that the most productive way forward may be to use Bayesian methods to couple existing process-based models, empirical relationships based on good data, and expert opinion, to make the analysis of ecological risks more robust, consistent, and repeatable.     

Determination of silver nanoparticle species released from textiles into artificial sweat and laundry wash for a risk assessment

Increasing use of nanomaterials for consumer products has induced growing concerns on their adverse effects on human health and the environment. To assess the environmental and human health risks of these nanoproducts, it is essential to identify physicochemical forms and quantify the amount of nanomaterials released from nanoproducts upon exposure to various environments. In this study, we have investigated the release assessment of nano-Ag textile products in terms of the total Ag content, and the distribution of Ag materials in the textile and the surrounding environment. The results suggest that the release of Ag nanomaterials from consumer products is less dependent on the total Ag content in the consumer product and depends significantly on the manufacturing processes of the consumer products as well as exposure environment. Based on these experimental results and a simple exposure model, the highest total exposure to particulate/dissolved Ag per use during sweating (1 h) was estimated to be 0.81/2.03 μg Ag/kg body weight with a standard body weight of 77 kg for a male. These results are fairly minimal human exposure and suggest that textiles containing Ag nanomaterials may be less of a concern in terms of human exposure to Ag nanomaterials.     

生态红线划分的理论和技术

在重要生态功能区、生态环境敏感区/脆弱区等区域划定生态红线,控制人类活动强度,对于维护区域生态完整性和生态服务功能的可持续性,解决生态环境退化和资源枯竭问题,减轻异常自然灾害不利影响具有重要意义.虽然不少省市已开展生态红线划分和管理试点工作,但生态红线划分的理论和技术尚不完善。生态红线区划和管理急需理论指导和技术支持。对生态红线的内涵进行了分析,指出了空间红线、面积红线和管理红线之间的有机联系,强调了生态安全空间格局和区域生态服务需求在生态红线划分中的重要性;在生态红线划分技术研究综述基础上剖析了生态红线的研究中存在的问题,如划分方法简单粗放、对景观和区域尺度上的空间过程和空间联系考虑不足以及由于部门和学科分割带来的(海)水陆缺乏统筹等;论述了生态适宜性评价、景观/区域安全格局理论、海陆统筹理论、干扰生态学理论、生态系统管理和适应性理论以及驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型框架等技术方法和理论以及它们在在生态红线划分中的潜在应用;最后提出了基于生态安全格局和区域生态服务需求的生态红线划分的技术路线,并对今后生态红线划分研究进行了展望。提出的生态红线划分技术和理论方法可为今后生态红线的研究提供有益参考。     

厦门市生态经济系统物质流分析

运用物质流分析(MFA)方法和STIRPAT模型,对1996～2007年厦门生态经济系统物质输入与输出进行分析,结果表明:(1)在不考虑水的情况下,物质输入与输出不断增加(年均增长率分别为11.48%、11.41%),但均小于GDP增长速度(15.94%),二者成正比;物质流增长集中表现在对金属、非金属矿物的需求及化石燃料燃烧废气、工业废气的排放.(2)用水量和废水排放量均不断增加,尤以生活污水排放量增长速度较快,加重了区域环境的压力.(3)物质输入与GDP、物质输出与GDP呈良好线性关系.厦门经济发展很大程度上依赖资源消耗.(4)单位GDP物质输入与输出均不断减小,表明资源利用率、处置率明显提高,区域逐步走向生态环境与社会经济的协调发展.(5)构建了厦门物质输入驱动机制的STIRPAT模型,得出人口数量、富裕程度、技术水平或经济结构每分别发生1%的变化,将引起输入量相应发生0.99%、0.98%、0.17%、0.31%的变化.提升技术水平和优化经济结构具有较大调控空间,将是厦门物质减量化战略的实施重点.     

An ecological perspective in aquatic ecotoxicology: Approaches and challenges

This paper aims to highlight the considerable potential of a better integration of ecological theory in aquatic ecotoxicology. It outlines how community ecology, studies on trophic interaction and disturbance ecology could provide an enhanced theoretical basis for aquatic ecotoxicology and increase ecological relevance in environmental risk assessment of chemicals. Based on the literature and own research, approaches from aquatic ecotoxicology are presented, which are based on ecological considerations and address a higher level of biological complexity for risk assessment strategies of chemicals. The concepts of species-sensitivity distribution (SSD), pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT), the use of model ecosystems and the sediment quality triad (SQT) in ecological risk assesment as well as inputs from ecotoxicology into landscape ecology are illustrated. These examples aim to evidence aquatic ecotoxicology as a rewarding field of ecological research.     

Using historical data for bioprocess optimization: modeling wine characteristics using artificial neural networks and archived process information

Optimization of fermentation processes is a difficult task that relies on an understanding of the complex effects of processing inputs on productivity and quality outputs. Because of the complexity of these biological systems, traditional optimization methods utilizing mathematical models and statistically designed experiments are less effective, especially on a production scale. At the same time, information is being collected on a regular basis during the course of normal manufacturing and process development that is rarely fully utilized. We are developing an optimization method in which historical process data is used to train an artificial neural network for correlation of processing inputs and outputs. Subsequently, an optimization routine is used in conjunction with the trained neural network to find optimal processing conditions given the desired product characteristics and any constraints on inputs. Wine processing is being used as a case study for this work. Using data from wine produced in our pilot winery over the past 3 years, we have demonstrated that trained neural networks can be used successfully to predict the yeast-fermentation kinetics, as well as chemical and sensory properties of the finished wine, based solely on the properties of the grapes and the intended processing. To accomplish this, a hybrid neural network training method, Stop Training with Validation (STV), has been developed to find the most desirable neural network architecture and training level. As industrial historical data will not be evenly spaced over the entire possible search space, we have also investigated the ability of the trained neural networks to interpolate and extrapolate with data not used during training. Because a company will utilize its own existing process data for this method, the result of this work will be a general fermentation optimization method that can be applied to fermentation processes to improve quality and productivity.     

海河流域生态功能区划

从海河流域自身的特征出发,运用RS、GIS技术,采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法,对海河流域生态功能区进行划分.结果表明:海河流域可划分为5个生态区、24个生态亚区和114个生态功能区;以流域尺度上占主导地位的4项生态功能(水源涵养、水土保持、防风固沙和生物多样性保护)为依据,确定了对海河流域具有重要意义的11个重要生态功能区域.该区划结果明确了对海河流域生态安全具有重要意义的区域,可用于指导海河流域自然资源的有序开发利用和产业的合理布局,为海河流域生态环境保护提供了科学依据,对维护海河流域生态安全具有重要意义.     

海河流域生态功能区划

从海河流域自身的特征出发,运用RS、GIS技术,采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法,对海河流域生态功能区进行划分.结果表明:海河流域可划分为5个生态区、24个生态亚区和114个生态功能区;以流域尺度上占主导地位的4项生态功能(水源涵养、水土保持、防风固沙和生物多样性保护)为依据,确定了对海河流域具有重要意义的11个重要生态功能区域.该区划结果明确了对海河流域生态安全具有重要意义的区域,可用于指导海河流域自然资源的有序开发利用和产业的合理布局,为海河流域生态环境保护提供了科学依据,对维护海河流域生态安全具有重要意义.     

Probiotic bacteria: safety, functional and technological properties

During the past two decades probiotic (health promoting) micro-organisms have been increasingly included in various types of food products, especially in fermented milks. Several aspects, including safety, functional and technological characteristics, have to be taken into consideration in the selection process of probiotic micro-organisms. Safety aspects include specifications such as origin (healthy human GI-tract), non-pathogenicity and antibiotic resistance characteristics. Functional aspects include viability and persistence in the GI-tract, immunomodulation, antagonistic and antimutagenic properties. Before probiotic strains, chosen on the basis of their good safety and functional characteristics, can benefit the consumer, they must first be able to be manufactured under industrial conditions. Furthermore, they have to survive and retain their functionality during storage, and also in the foods into which they are incorporated without producing off-flavours. Factors related to the technological and sensory aspects of probiotic food production are of utmost importance since only by satisfying the demands of the consumer can the food industry succeed in promoting the consumption of functional probiotic products in the future.     

Functional Foods — Lebensmittel der Zukunft?: Maßgeschneiderte Ernährung

Functional foods might be helpful in improving the nutritional status and preventing certain diseases. In order to inform the consumer about the benefit of a product it will be necessary to enable scientifically proved health claims. These health claims have to be supported by studies and should make clear how a product can influence health. Only if there are proven facts, functional foods could establish on the market as foods of the future in the longer term beside the naturally healthful products. It will be of no use neither to the consumer nor to the food industry to promote these product group with exaggerated promises as a kind of miracle cure which can help against all diseases. The acceptance of the consumer will depend on credible product concepts. Another important precondition for functional foods is that there are absolutely no health risks associated with the consumption of these products. Recommendations regarding fortification and intake of functional foods must consider this aspect. Side effects by excessive doses or imbalances are to be avoided. The consumer should know that the point is not to take as much as possible of potentially healthful single substances but to show clearly that physiological dosages, which can also be attained by a higher intake of traditional food are associated with the best benefit‐risk relation, i.e. show the greatest benefit and minimal risk. In general functional foods do not resolve any nutritional problem. The effects are limited, especially if the nutrition is imbalanced (e.g. hyperenergetic, high fat). In these cases the addition of functional foods offers no or only small corrective effects. Functional foods represent no substitute for a fully balanced nourishment with a high amount of naturally healthy foods such as vegetables, fruits, whole grain products as well as milk and milk products.     

Plastic changes of the network properties of neurons during learning in the cat

Functional connections between neurones of various types in microareas and between microareas of the motor cortex in cats have been studied during elaboration of an electro-defensive reflex to sound. A difference has been shown between neighbouring neurones in formation of their contacts with nearby neurones located within an area of 500 mc. Neurones generating spikes of high amplitude had more active "outputs" to neurones situated at different distances, while neurones generating spikes of low amplitude had more active "inputs" to them. On the other hand, as a result of conditioning "inputs" to distant neurones underwent more significant changes in the first type of neurones, and in the second type--the "outputs" changed more markedly.     

A process-oriented life-cycle assessment (LCA) model for environmental and resource-related technologies (EASETECH)

The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - In life-cycle assessment (LCA), environmental technologies are often modelled as “black-box processes”, where inputs and outputs are...     

Nitrogen inputs and outputs for New Zealand in 2001 at national and regional scales

The Nanjing Declaration on Nitrogen Management, signed in Nanjing in October 2004, calls for national governments to optimize N management by several strategies including assessment of N cycles. Here we develop a first N budget for New Zealand (267,000 km²), at both national and regional scales. The national inputs are estimated to be 36.5 kg/ha, mainly from biological N fixation, but also increasingly from fertilizer application and atmospheric deposition. The outputs are estimated at 40.5 kg/ha. Biological N fixation from legumes in pasture was the most important input in most regions. Exceptions were Auckland, with a large urban population, and the West Coast of the South Island, with large tracts of rain forest. Outputs were distributed in the order leaching > ammonia volatilisation > erosion = produce = denitrification. These outputs are very different from global averages because of the large numbers of grazing animals on pasture. A large loss occurs between the subsoil and the oceans, and further research is needed to identify these pathways. Riverine export of N was generally well correlated with inputs.     

Environmental analysis of packaging‐derived changes in food production and consumer behavior

This study analyzed the environmental impacts of packaging‐derived changes in food production and consumer behavior to assist packaging designers in making environmentally conscious decisions. Packaging can be functionalized to prevent food loss and waste (FLW), for example, extending the expiration date and apportioning the package size, but it can generate additional environmental impacts from changes in food and packaging production. Previous studies assessed additional impacts from packaging production; however, the effects of packaging functionalization are yet to be connected with food production and consumer behavior. To examine the effect of functionalization on these aspects, we analyzed packaging‐derived changes in food production for milk and cabbage products. The case study compared products with functionalized packaging that permits a longer expiration date or a smaller portion size to their base‐case products. Our results showed that the packaging‐derived changes increased the global warming potential (GWP) of food production more than other processes did. Thus, changes in food production weakened the effectiveness of the packaging functionalization to decrease the GWP. Moreover, the analysis of consumer behavior scenarios showed that consumers’ perception of the expiration date decisively influences the effectiveness of packaging functionalization. When consumers discarded food after the expiration date, provided they consumed in small quantities, the packaging functionalization reduced FLW. From the scenario analysis, we identified appropriate combinations of packaging functionalization and consumer behaviors to effectively decrease total GWP. With our expanded analysis, packaging designers can understand the effectiveness of their decisions on the product life cycle in reducing FLW and environmental impacts.     

Environmental and Socioeconomic Constraints to the Development of Freshwater Fish Aquaculture in China

In this article, we provide an overview, on freshwater fish aquaculture in P.R. China, with special emphasis on pond fish culture. We describe the history, ecology (trophic structure and species reared), and technological aspects (including inputs/outputs, yields, labor productivity, and fossil energy use) of freshwater fish production and analyze its role in relation to the socioeconomic context. We discuss the prospects for intensification of production. In China, freshwater fish aquaculture has always been closely linked to cultivation of crops and animal husbandry, that is, feed inputs are in the form of agricultural wastes. The close integration with the farming system at large results in an efficient use of nutrients, low environmental loading, and little dependence on fossil energy inputs. About 7 to 9 different fish species, mainly herbivores, are kept in the same pond and efforts are made to maintain as much as possible the natural mechanisms of matter regulation and energy flows within the pond ecosystem. However, ecological compatibility is paid for by relatively low productivity, both per hectare of waterbody and per hour of labor input. If the throughput of freshwater fish production per unit of area and labor are to be dramatically increased, the equilibrium of the traditional integrated system will be difficult to maintain.     

江西省生态功能区划的分区过程及结果

生态功能区划是研究生态系统功能,评判生态系统分异和变化特征,提出生态恢复策略的基础。本文在综合分析江西省生态环境特点的基础上,按照生态区划的原则,以江西省80个行政单元为区划对象,建立了各级生态区单元划分的指标体系,采用定性和定量结合的方法对全省进行三级分区。定量分析使用DPS7.05分析软件,主要采用聚类分析和主成分分析法;并运用图形叠置、主导因子和专家智能集成等定性方法优化分区界线,最后使用地理信息系统软件acrview GIS3.03成图,将江西省生态功能区划为4个生态区,13个生态亚区和45个生态功能区。研究结果对江西省维护生态安全,制定生态规划和保护生态环境具有重要参考价值。     

生态学研究中的分析与能值分析理论

与能值是研究生态系统自组织过程的两个重要的目标函数。分析与能值分析理论在 2 0世纪 70年代开始应用于生态学研究 ,它们有各自的理论起点 ,在应用上从不同的角度表现生态系统功能 ,两者的互补关系受到了生态学家的关注 ,并在实际应用中取得了有益的研究成果。从与能值各自的理论基础与研究成果出发 ,概述了两者在描述生态系统功能上的互补关系 ,并分析了其在生态学理论研究及实际应用上的重要意义     

A canonical form for neural nets without circles

By “neural net” will be meant “neural net without circles.” Every neural net effects a transformation from inputs (i.e., firing patterns of the input neurons) to outputs (firing patterns of the output neurons). Two neural nets will be calledequivalent if they effect the same transformation from inputs to outputs. A canonical form is found for neural nets with respect to equivalence; i.e., a class of neural nets is defined, no two of which are equivalent, and which contains a neural net equivalent to any given neural net. This research was supported by the U.S. Air Force under Contract AF 49(638)-414 monitored by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.