Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere

Recent warming of Northern Hemisphere (NH) land is well documented and typically greater in winter/spring than other seasons. Physical environment responses to warming have been reported, but not details of large‐area temperate growing season impacts, or consequences for ecosystems and agriculture. To date, hemispheric‐scale measurements of biospheric changes have been confined to remote sensing. However, these studies did not provide detailed data needed for many investigations. Here, we show that a suite of modeled and derived measures (produced from daily maximum–minimum temperatures) linking plant development (phenology) with its basic climatic drivers provide a reliable and spatially extensive method for monitoring general impacts of global warming on the start of the growing season. Results are consistent with prior smaller area studies, confirming a nearly universal quicker onset of early spring warmth (spring indices (SI) first leaf date, ?1.2 days decade^?1), late spring warmth (SI first bloom date, ?1.0 days decade^?1; last spring day below 5°C, ?1.4 days decade^?1), and last spring freeze date (?1.5 days decade^?1) across most temperate NH land regions over the 1955–2002 period. However, dynamics differ among major continental areas with North American first leaf and last freeze date changes displaying a complex spatial relationship. Europe presents a spatial pattern of change, with western continental areas showing last freeze dates getting earlier faster, some central areas having last freeze and first leaf dates progressing at about the same pace, while in portions of Northern and Eastern Europe first leaf dates are getting earlier faster than last freeze dates. Across East Asia last freeze dates are getting earlier faster than first leaf dates.     

Phenology shifts at start vs. end of growing season in temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1982–2008

Changes in vegetative growing seasons are dominant indicators of the dynamic response of ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, knowledge of growing seasons over the past decades is essential to predict ecosystem changes. In this study, the long‐term changes in the growing seasons of temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere were examined by analyzing satellite‐measured normalized difference vegetation index and reanalysis temperature during 1982–2008. Results showed that the length of the growing season (LOS) increased over the analysis period; however, the role of changes at the start of the growing season (SOS) and at the end of the growing season (EOS) differed depending on the time period. On a hemispheric scale, SOS advanced by 5.2 days in the early period (1982–1999) but advanced by only 0.2 days in the later period (2000–2008). EOS was delayed by 4.3 days in the early period, and it was further delayed by another 2.3 days in the later period. The difference between SOS and EOS in the later period was due to less warming during the preseason (January–April) before SOS compared with the magnitude of warming in the preseason (June–September) before EOS. At a regional scale, delayed EOS in later periods was shown. In North America, EOS was delayed by 8.1 days in the early period and delayed by another 1.3 days in the later period. In Europe, the delayed EOS by 8.2 days was more significant than the advanced SOS by 3.2 days in the later period. However, in East Asia, the overall increase in LOS during the early period was weakened in the later period. Admitting regional heterogeneity, changes in hemispheric features suggest that the longer‐lasting vegetation growth in recent decades can be attributed to extended leaf senescence in autumn rather than earlier spring leaf‐out.     

青藏高原高寒湿地GPP变化特征及对生长季积温的响应

基于涡度相关系统,利用2004—2016年的涡度相关系统观测资料,做了青藏高原高寒湿地生长季总初级生产力(GPP)在不同时间尺度上对生长季有效积温(GDD)响应的研究。结果表明:高寒湿地生态系统在生长季的日GPP、GDD与月际GPP、GDD都表现为先增大后减小的单峰变化趋势,都在7月或8月达到峰值,在5月达到最小值。在整个生长季尺度上,GPP与GDD变异性较大,没有明显的变化趋势。2004—2016年整个生长季GPP与GDD的均值分别为(458.82±25.78) gC m^-2季^-1和(1060.89±84.07)℃。在日尺度、月尺度、生长季尺度上,GPP与GDD都呈极显著正相关关系(P<0.01)。但是,通过比较生长季分别每个月GPP与GDD的关系发现,5、9月的GPP与GDD没有显著相关性(P>0.05),而在7月相关性最为显著(P<0.01)。整体上看,高寒湿地生态系统植被的总初级生产力与热量条件表现为正相关关系,由此说明在全球气候变暖的背景下,将会提高青藏高原高寒湿地生态系统植被的光合生产能力。     

中国祁连山西段青海云杉树轮密度记录的气候信号

树轮气候学是研究过去气候变化的重要手段之一。以往研究表明,树轮密度是生长季温度的重要代用资料。本文建立了祁连山西段青海云杉132～135年的树轮最大密度年表、树轮最小密度年表、树轮晚材平均密度年表和树轮早材平均密度年表,比较了不同密度年表指示的最优气候信号及其季节组合,评估了其作为气候代用资料的潜力与价值。结果表明:树轮晚材平均密度和树轮早材平均密度对于树木生长季气候信号的响应远低于树轮最大密度和树轮最小密度;树轮早材平均密度和树轮最小密度与帕尔默干旱指数有很强的联系,表明树轮早材平均密度和树轮最小密度有成为干旱代用指标的潜力。     

2001-2020年中国森林植被EVI对气候因子的响应

森林是陆地生态系统的主要组成部分,其在维持生物圈和大气圈的动态平衡中发挥着重要作用。探究森林生态系统植被指数变化及其对气候因子的响应对优化我国生态环境建设具有重要意义。基于2001—2020年MODIS-EVI数据及气象数据,利用趋势分析和偏相关分析等方法,探究中国森林生态系统生长季植被指数变化及其对气候因子的响应。结果表明,2001—2020年中国森林植被EVI以0.028/10a的速率增长,显著改善区占总面积的39.63%。生长季,植被指数与气温、降水量、太阳辐射和土壤湿度均呈正相关,其中土壤湿度对其影响最为显著,在中南地区尤为突出。EVI对各气候因子响应的时滞效应在不同地区之间存在差异：六个区域EVI对气温的响应均不存在时滞效应;对太阳辐射响应的滞后期均为3个月;西北地区、西南地区EVI对降水量响应的滞后期分别为3个月、6个月,华东地区EVI对土壤湿度的响应滞后期为6个月,其余地区EVI对降水量和土壤湿度的响应均不存在时滞效应。整体上看,土壤湿度是影响生长季植被变化的主要因子。     

非生长季降水对青藏高原高寒草甸优势种生物量稳定性的影响

受全球气候变化的影响,青藏高原在过去的几十年间整体上呈现暖湿化的趋势,相比于年际之间温度和降水的变化外,生长季和非生长季气候变化模式的差异可能会对生态系统产生更重要的影响,但相关的研究尚不充分。以青藏高原东部的高寒草甸为研究对象,基于2001年至2017年17年的野外观测数据,包括优势植物紫花针茅的高度、多度以及生物量、次优势物种洽草的生物量,结合生长季和非生长季平均温度和降水量的变化,通过线性回归以及结构方程模型,探究生长季/非生长季不对称气候变化对于青藏高原高寒草甸优势物种生物量稳定性的影响。研究结果表明：1)青藏高原东部年均温和年降水在过去的17年间显著增加,呈现暖湿化的趋势,但是非生长的降水却变化不明显;2)紫花针茅的高度、多度以及生物量在过去17年没有显著的趋势,但是洽草的生物量稳定性显著减少;3)非生长降水结合紫花针茅的高度、多度以及洽草的生物量稳定性促进了紫花针茅的生物量稳定性。研究结果可以为青藏高原高寒草甸在未来气候变化的背景下合理保护与利用提供科学依据。     

Predicting spatial and temporal patterns of bud‐burst and spring frost risk in north‐west Europe: the implications of local adaptation to climate

The timing of spring bud‐burst and leaf development in temperate, boreal and Arctic trees and shrubs fluctuates from year to year, depending on meteorological conditions. Over several generations, the sensitivity of bud‐burst to meteorological conditions is subject to selection pressure. The timing of spring bud‐burst is considered to be under opposing evolutionary pressures; earlier bud‐burst increases the available growing season (capacity adaptation) but later bud‐burst decreases the risk of frost damage to actively growing parts (survival adaptation). The optimum trade‐off between these two forms of adaptation may be considered an evolutionarily stable strategy that maximizes the long‐term ecological fitness of a phenotype under a given climate. Rapid changes in climate, as predicted for this century, are likely to exceed the rate at which trees and shrubs can adapt through evolution or migration. Therefore the response of spring phenology will depend not only on future climatic conditions but also on the limits imposed by adaptation to current and historical climate. Using a dataset of bud‐burst dates from twenty‐nine sites in Finland for downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.), we parameterize a simple thermal time bud‐burst model in which the critical temperature threshold for bud‐burst is a function of recent historical climatic conditions and reflects a trade‐off between capacity and survival adaptation. We validate this approach with independent data from eight independent sites outside Finland, and use the parameterized model to predict the response of bud‐burst to future climate scenarios in north‐west Europe. Current strategies for budburst are predicted to be suboptimal for future climates, with bud‐burst generally occurring earlier than the optimal strategy. Nevertheless, exposure to frost risk is predicted to decrease slightly and the growing season is predicted to increase considerably across most of the region. However, in high‐altitude maritime regions exposure to frost risk following bud‐burst is predicted to increase.     

Spatial and temporal variability of the phenological seasons in Germany from 1951 to 1996

Various indications for shifts in plant and animal phenology resulting from climate change have been observed in Europe. This analysis of phenological seasons in Germany of more than four decades (1951–96) has several major advantages: (i) a wide and dense geographical coverage of data from the phenological network of the German Weather Service, (ii) the 16 phenophases analysed cover the whole annual cycle and, moreover, give a direct estimate of the length of the growing season for four deciduous tree species. After intensive data quality checks, two different methods – linear trend analyses and comparison of averages of subintervals – were applied in order to determine shifts in phenological seasons in the last 46 years. Results from both methods were similar and reveal a strong seasonal variation. There are clear advances in the key indicators of earliest and early spring (?0.18 to ?0.23 d y^?1) and notable advances in the succeeding spring phenophases such as leaf unfolding of deciduous trees (?0.16 to ?0.08 d y^?1). However, phenological changes are less strong during autumn (delayed by + 0.03 to + 0.10 d y^?1 on average). In general, the growing season has been lengthened by up to ?0.2 d y^?1 (mean linear trends) and the mean 1974–96 growing season was up to 5 days longer than in the 1951–73 period. The spatial variability of trends was analysed by statistical means and shown in maps, but these did not reveal any substantial regional differences. Although there is a high spatial variability, trends of phenological phases at single locations are mirrored by subsequent phases, but they are not necessarily identical. Results for changes in the biosphere with such a high resolution with respect to time and space can rarely be obtained by other methods such as analyses of satellite data.     

Large geographical differences in the sensitivity of ice‐covered lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere to temperature changes

Based on a unique dataset of more than 50 000 observations of ice phenology from 1213 lakes and 236 rivers in 12 different countries, we show that interannual variations in the timing of ice‐on and ice‐off on lakes and rivers are not equally pronounced over the entire Northern Hemisphere, but increase strongly towards geographical regions that experience only short periods during which the air temperature falls below 0 °C. We explain our observations by interannual fluctuation patterns of air temperature and suggest that lake and river ecosystems in such geographical regions are particularly vulnerable to global warming, as high interannual variability is known to have important ramifications for ecosystem structure and functioning. We estimate that the standard deviation of the duration of ice cover, viewed as a measure of interannual variability, exceeds 25 days for lakes and rivers located on 7% of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere. Such high variability might be an early warning signal for a critical transition from strictly dimictic, ice‐covered systems to monomictic, open‐water systems. Using the Global Lake and Wetland Database, we suggest that 3.7% of the world's lakes larger than 0.1 km² are at high risk of becoming open‐water systems in the near future, which will have immediate consequences for global biogeochemical cycles.