中国东北地区12个建群树种对气候变化响应的MaxEnt模型分析

气候变化是当前全球生物多样性面临的最大威胁之一,对物种地理分布格局具有较大影响。东北森林物种丰富度较高,目前尚缺乏基于主要树种、未来不同气候模式的综合研究。基于12种建群树种的分布数据及23个环境变量（19个生物气候因子、土地利用类型、海拔、坡度、坡向）数据,应用MaxEnt模型首次对东北地区乔木树种在3种气候变化情景下（SSP126可持续路径、SSP245中间路径、SSP585化石燃料为主发展路径）的潜在丰富度分布格局、主导环境变量以及树种损失、获得和周转情况进行了预测。结果表明：不同未来气候情景下东北地区各树种的潜在分布变化存在差异,适生区面积减小的树种有：兴安落叶松、山杨、春榆、白桦、水曲柳、胡桃楸、蒙古栎、辽东桤木,减小幅度达到10%-30%;适生区面积变化不大的树种有：红皮云杉、樟子松、黄檗,多数情况下低、中和高适生区面积变化发生了抵消,导致总适生区面积变化不大;适生区增加的树种有：红松,增加幅度达20%左右。环境因素将影响东北地区乔木树种潜在适宜性分布,其中,降水因素对东北地区树种分布格局起关键作用,尤其是降水量季节性变化,是影响东北地区50%左右树种分布格局的主导环境因子。东北地区乔木树种在无迁移和SSP585气候情景下受威胁程度相对较高,而在SSP126气候情景下大多处于低风险状态;物种迁移假设的对物种受威胁程度的影响先于气候变化情景的影响,树种发生适度迁移能够缓解树种受威胁的状况。网格单元中物种损失和周转的预测表明,东北地区树种高周转率主要由树种高损失率造成,损失率较高的地区往往树种周转率也相对较高。预测气候变化对东北地区树木分布格局的影响,有助于制定更有效的气候变化适应策略,以促进东北地区树木的可持续发展。     

Climate‐change winners and losers: stream macroinvertebrates of a submontane region in Central Europe

1. Freshwater ecosystems will be profoundly affected by global climate change, especially those in mountainous areas, which are known to be particularly vulnerable to warming temperatures. We modelled impacts of climate change on the distribution ranges of 38 species of benthic stream macroinvertebrates from nine macroinvertebrate orders covering all river zones from the headwaters to large river reaches. 2. Species altitudinal shifts as well as range changes up to the year 2080 were simulated using the A2a and B2a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate‐warming scenarios. Presence‐only species distribution models were constructed for a stream network in Germany’s lower mountain ranges by means of consensus projections of four algorithms, as implemented in the BIOMOD package in R (GLM, GAM, GBM and ANN). 3. Species were predicted to shift an average of 122 and 83 m up in altitude along the river continuum by the year 2080 under the A2a and B2a climate‐warming scenarios, respectively. No correlation between altitudinal shifts and mean annual air temperature of species’ occurrence could be detected. 4. Depending on the climate‐warming scenario, most or all (97% for A2a and 100% for B2a) of the macroinvertebrate species investigated were predicted to survive under climate change in the study area. Ranges were predicted to contract for species that currently occur in streams with low annual mean air temperatures but expand for species that inhabit rivers where air temperatures are higher. 5. Our models predict that novel climate conditions will reorganise species composition and community structure along the river continuum. Possible effects are discussed, including significant reductions in population size of headwater species, eventually leading to a loss of genetic diversity. A shift in river species composition is likely to enhance the establishment of non‐native macroinvertebrates in the lower reaches of the river continuum.     

ARE RANGE‐SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS CONSISTENT WITH SPECIES‐LEVEL HERITABILITY?

The concept of species-level heritability is widely contested. Because it is most likely to apply to emergent, species-level traits, one of the central discussions has focused on the potential heritability of geographic range size. However, a central argument against range-size heritability has been that it is not compatible with the observed shape of present-day species range-size distributions (SRDs), a claim that has never been tested. To assess this claim, we used forward simulation of range-size evolution in clades with varying degrees of range-size heritability, and compared the output of three different models to the range-size distribution of the South American avifauna. Although there were differences among the models, a moderate-to-high degree of range-size heritability consistently leads to SRDs that were similar to empirical data. These results suggest that range-size heritability can generate realistic SRDs, and may play an important role in shaping observed patterns of range sizes.     

Climate‐induced changes in the distribution of freshwater fish: observed and predicted trends

1. Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Improved understanding, monitoring and forecasting of its effects are thus crucial for researchers, policy makers and biodiversity managers. 2. Here, we provide a review and some meta‐analyses of the literature reporting both observed and predicted climate‐induced effects on the distribution of freshwater fish. After reviewing three decades of research, we summarise how methods in assessing the effects of climate change have evolved, and whether current knowledge is geographically or taxonomically biased. We conducted multispecies qualitative and quantitative analyses to find out whether the observed responses of freshwater fish to recent changes in climate are consistent with those predicted under future climate scenarios. 3. We highlight the fact that, in recent years, freshwater fish distributions have already been affected by contemporary climate change in ways consistent with anticipated responses under future climate change scenarios: the range of most cold‐water species could be reduced or shift to higher altitude or latitude, whereas that of cool‐ and warm‐water species could expand or contract. 4. Most evidence about the effects of climate change is underpinned by the large number of studies devoted to cold‐water fish species (mainly salmonids). Our knowledge is still incomplete, however, particularly due to taxonomic and geographic biases. 5. Observed and expected responses are well correlated among families, suggesting that model predictions are supported by empirical evidence. The observed effects are of greater magnitude and show higher variability than the predicted effects, however, indicating that other drivers of changes may be interacting with climate and seriously affecting freshwater fish. 6. Finally, we suggest avenues of research required to address current gaps in what we know about the climate‐induced effects on freshwater fish distribution, including (i) the need for more long‐term data analyses, (ii) the assessment of climate‐induced effects at higher levels of organisation (e.g. assemblages), (iii) methodological improvements (e.g. accounting for uncertainty among projections and species’ dispersal abilities, combining both distributional and empirical approaches and including multiple non‐climatic stressors) and (iv) systematic confrontation of observed versus predicted effects across multi‐species assemblages and at several levels of biological organisation (i.e. populations and assemblages).     

What spatial data do we need to develop global mammal conservation strategies?

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.